RESEARCH ARTICLE Modeling Deltaic Lobe-Building Cycles and Channel 10.1029/2019JF005220 Avulsions for the Yellow River Delta, China Key Points: 1 1 1 1 • Patterns of Yellow River deltaic lobe Andrew J. Moodie , Jeffrey A. Nittrouer , Hongbo Ma , Brandee N. Carlson , development are reproduced by a Austin J. Chadwick2 , Michael P. Lamb2 , and Gary Parker3,4 quasi-2-D numerical model • Avulsions are less frequent and occur 1Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA, 2Division of farther upstream when a delta lobe Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA, 3Department of Civil and progrades 4 • The Yellow River deltaic system Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA, Department of aggrades to 30% to 50% of bankfull Geology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA flow depth before avulsion Abstract River deltas grow by repeating cycles of lobe development punctuated by channel avulsions, Supporting Information: so that over time, lobes amalgamate to produce a composite landform. Existing models have shown that • Supporting Information S1 backwater hydrodynamics are important in avulsion dynamics, but the effect of lobe progradation on avulsion frequency and location has yet to be explored. Herein, a quasi-2-D numerical model incorporating Correspondence to: channel avulsion and lobe development cycles is developed. The model is validated by the A. J. Moodie,
[email protected] well-constrained case of a prograding lobe on the Yellow River delta, China. It is determined that with lobe progradation, avulsion frequency decreases, and avulsion length increases, relative to conditions where a delta lobe does not prograde.