National Drought Management Authority COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JUNE 2017

JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend

Marginal Mixed Farming Alert Worsening

Mixed Farming Alert Stable Formal/Urban Employment Alert Stable

COUNTY Alert Worsening

Biophysical Value Normal

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Indicators Range/Value VCI-3 month 34.95 >35 Biophysical Indicators State of Water Sources 4 5-6 . No rain was received during the month. Vegetation Condition Fair Good . Vegetation condition index was below normal Production Value Normal at 34.95. indicators . The state of water in main water points was Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal declining and below normal. Livestock Body Conditions Moderate Normal Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Milk Production (in litres) 1.0 >2.2 . Unusual livestock migration patterns were Livestock death(Drought) No deaths No deaths reported. . The livestock body condition was fair for cattle Crops Condition Poor Good and good for goats in most areas of the county. Access Indicators Value Normal . Milk production and consumption was below long term mean. Terms of Trade (ToT) 54 >87 . Terms of Trade were unfavourable compared to Milk Consumption (in litres) 0.9 >2.1 long term mean. Return distance to water 2.9Km <3.4Km . Percentage of children at risk of malnutrition sources was above normal range. Utilization indicators Value Normal . Households moderately applied consumption Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at 8.8 <8.0 risk of malnutrition) based coping strategies. Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 7.6 N/A

. Short rains harvests . Planting/Weeding . Long rains harvests . Short rains . Short dry spell . Long rains . A long dry spell . Planting/weeding . Reduced milk yields . High Calving Rate . Land preparation . Increased HH Food Stocks . Milk Yields Increase . Increased HH Food

. Land preparation Stocks . Kidding (Sept)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE

. No rains were experienced in the month of June and this is normal at this time of the year as indicated in the figure below.

2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1 1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)

. The vegetation greenness in the county was below normal as indicated by 3month VCI of 34.95.The situation was better in West sub county with a normal 3 month VCI of 57.57. . Areas to watch included Mwingi central, Kitui East and Kitui South Sub Counties that recorded a VCI of 24.02, 30.98 and 33.2 respectively. These particular sub counties received minimal rainfall during the long rains.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 2.1.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Condition) 2.1.2.1 Pasture

. Pasture condition ranged from poor to fair across the livelihood zones with exception of Mwingi West, Kitui West and Central Sub Counties which had good pasture condition. . On average, 51.7% of pasture was regarded as poor in June compared to 28.6% in May. The remaining 37.9% and 10.3% was fair and good respectively. . The quantity and quality of pasture available is expected to last for 1 to 2 months in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone and 2 to 3 months in Mixed farming livelihood zone. . The situation was particularly bad in sections of Mwingi North (Ngomeni ward), Mwingi Central (Nguni, Nuu, Mui and Kivou wards), Kitui East (Endau/Malalani,Voo/Kyamatu ward), Kitui Rural (Kanyangi ward) and Kitui South ( ward) Sub Counties. 2.1.2.2 Browse

. Browse condition ranged from fair to good across the livelihood zones. . From community interviews, 55.2% indicated browse condition to be fair compared to 44.8% whom they observed browse condition to be in good condition. . The quality and quantity of browse available is expected to last for 2 to 3 months in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone and 3 to 4 months in mixed farming livelihood zone.

2.2 WATER RESOURCE

2.2.1 Sources . The main water sources currently in use by both human and livestock are traditional river wells, boreholes and pans & dams at 29%, 23% and 28% respectively as shown in the figure. . Other water sources currently in use are springs, piped water, rock catchments among others. . Poor recharge of water facilities were reported in Nuu, Nguni, Ngomeni, Endau/Malalani, Mutha and Ikutha wards.

2.2.2 Household Access and Utilization

. The average return distances to water points rose to 2.9km in June compared to 2.7km in May. Exceptional return distances of above 10 km were reported in some parts of Nuu, Nguni, Ngomeni, Ikutha and Endau/Malalani wards. . The distances varied across the livelihood zones with marginal mixed farming livelihood zone recording a higher distance of 3.4km compared to 2.4km in mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current water distances are below long term mean as shown in the figure below.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin

Household Access to Water - Kitui County

1.8 Nov 2.6 4.2 Sep 4.1 3.9 Jul 3.9 2.9 3.4 May 2.7 3 3 4.6 Mar 3.4 4.2 3 3.3 Jan 2.52.6 0 1 2 3 4 5

Average Distance (Km) 2017 Average Distance (Km) (2011-2016)

2.2.3 Livestock Access

. The average return distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources rose to 2.8km in June from 2.5km in May. The distance varied across the livelihood zones with marginal mixed farming livelihood zone recording a higher grazing distance of 3.2km compared to 2.4km in mixed farming livelihood zone. . Livestock were watered once in two days in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone and daily in mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current average grazing distance is below normal compared to the long term mean as shown in the figure below.

Average Grazing Distance - Kitui County

1.7 Nov 2.4 3.8 Sep 3.8 3.5 Jul 3.4 2.8 3.1 May 2.5 2.7 2.7 Mar 3 4.1 2.8 4.4 Jan 2.42.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Average Distance (Km) 2017 Average Distance (Km)-(2011-2016)

2.3 Implication to food security

• The Browse condition observed would sustain the small stock body condition, hence trying to stabilizing the food security situation, however pasture condition and water availability for household in most areas mentioned would worsen the food security situation.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition . Generally, the livestock body condition for cattle was moderate; neither fat nor thin and good to fair for goat across the livelihood zones with exceptions of parts of Nuu and Nguni wards whereby the livestock body condition for cattle is boarderline; fore-ribs not visible. . Livestock feeds is currently being substituted by the crop residues. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases . No notifiable livestock disease outbreak were reported in the county.

3.1.3 Milk Production . The average milk production per household remained stable at 1.0 litre in June as that recorded during the last month and this is mainly attributed to stability in livestock body condition. . The current milk production per household is below normal compared to long term mean as shown in the figure below. Milk Production - Kitui County 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

Litresper Household 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean (2011-2016) 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 2017 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops . The three main crops planted in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone were Cowpeas, green grams and Millet while in mixed farming livelihood zone communities had mainly planted maize, beans and green grams. . Generally, below normal harvest is expected across the livelihood zones and this is mainly attributed to moisture stress being experienced by crops. Minimal harvest of drought tolerant crops (mostly cowpeas and green grams) is ongoing. . Most of the crops planted in Nguni, Nuu and Endau/Malalani wards never germinated due to moisture stress. . Suspected cases of crops being attack by Fall army Worm and African army worm was reported in Kitui South and Mwingi West Sub Counties respectively.

3.3 IMPLICATION OF THE ABOVE INDICATORS TO FOOD SECURITY

. The food security situation is fair, however there is a possibility of it worsening due to wilting of crops and spread of Fall and African army worm.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices . The average household price of cattle rose to Ksh.27,759 in June from Ksh.24,743 in May and this was mainly attributed to stability in livestock body condition in most parts of the county and uninterrupted market operations. . A higher average cattle price of Ksh.28, 938 was recorded in mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Ksh.26,308 in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current average price of cattle is below normal compared to long term mean and similar period in 2016 as shown in the figure below. Household cattle prices - Kitui County 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Prices Prices inKsh/head 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2014-2016) 32398 29824 32075 30568 30232 37075 33588 38945 31808 33255 28819 34608 Cattle prices 2016 45000 35833 26500 31500 32469 41667 35958 46667 32500 41000 28333 42700 Cattle prices 2017 30000 28667 26889 26484 24743 27759

Month 4.1.2 Small Ruminants Prices (Goat price) . The average price of goat declined to Ksh.3,121 in June from Ksh.3,254 in May. Goat prices were higher in mixed farming livelihood zone at Ksh.3, 313 compared to Ksh.2,885 in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current goat price is above normal compared to long term mean and same period in year 2016 as shown in the figure below.

Household goat prices - Kitui County 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000

Prices Prices in Ksh /head 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2014-2016) 2907 3148 2927 2710 3014 2936 3112 3053 3131 3163 3211 2982 Goat prices 2016 2949 3534 3417 2860 3024 2901 3236 3178 3133 3393 3867 3394 Goat prices 2017 3908 3406 2914 3063 3254 3121

Month

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 4.2 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize . The average price of maize per kilo remained stable at Ksh.58 in June as it was last month. A higher price of Ksh.58 was recorded in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Ksh.57 in mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current maize price is above normal compared to long term mean and this is mainly attributed to a rise in commodity price from the source markets in parts of Rift Valley and Western .

Market maize prices - Kitui County

70 60 50 40 30 20 Prices Prices inKsh/kg 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2014-2016) 32 32 32 33 34 35 36 34 33 32 32 33 Maize prices 2016 31 31 29 29 28 28 31 33 34 34 35 35 Maize prices 2017 38 48 46 54 58 58

Month

4.2.3 Beans . The average market price of beans rose to Ksh.91 in June from Ksh.89 in May. . The average beans price was higher in mixed farming livelihood zone at Ksh.91 compared to Ksh.89 in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. . The current beans price is above normal compared to the long term mean as shown in the figure below and this is mainly attributed to crop failure as a result of moisture stress.

Market beans prices - Kitui County 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Prices Prices inKsh/kg 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2014-2016) 71 73 74 79 81 81 75 75 72 74 74 73 Beans prices 2016 73 74 72 71 72 73 75 78 73 75 75 75 Beans prices 2017 79 86 90 93 89 91

Month

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 4.3 Livestock Price Ratio/Terms of Trade . Terms of trade were unfavourable at a value of 54 in June from 56 in May. This implies that, the earnings from a sale of a goat could purchase 54kgs of maize in June compared to 56kgs in May. . The current terms of trade are below normal compared to long term mean as shown in the figure below.

Terms of Trade -Kitui County 140 120 100 80 60 40

Termsof Trade 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2014-2016) 90 99 93 83 90 87 88 89 95 98 99 91 2016 95 114 118 99 108 104 104 96 92 100 110 97 2017 103 71 63 57 56 54

Month

4.4 Implication of the above indicators to food security

. There was increase in beans prices and decrease in goat prices and Terms of Trade. This is likely to worsen the food security situation.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION

. The average milk consumption per household remained stable at 0.9 litres in June as it was in the previous month, and this was mainly attributed to stability in livestock body condition. . Milk consumption was higher in Kitui Rural Sub County at 1.6 litres per household and lower in Mwingi West and Mwingi North Sub Counties at 0.9 litres per household. . The current milk consumption is below normal compared to the long term mean as shown in the figure below. Milk Consumption - Kitui County 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5 Litresper Household 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec mean (2011-2016) 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 2017 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE

. The figure below illustrates that in the month of June, 47% of the households were in poor consumption score compared to 28.9% and 24.1% of households who were in borderline and acceptable consumption score respectively. This implies that, the dietary diversity of majority of households comprised mainly of maize, beans and other legumes. . Compared to previous month, the number of households in poor consumption score reduced by 6.5% from 53.5% in May to 47% in June and this was mainly attributed to on- going health impact interventions. . 63.3% of households in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone were in poor consumption score compared to 34% in mixed farming livelihood zone.

Kitui County Food Consumption Score - JUNE 2017 50.0% 47.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 28.9% 30.0% 24.1% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0%

0.0% Households(Percentage) Poor Consumption Households Borderline Consumption Acceptable Consumption Households Households

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 5.2 NUTRITION STATUS

. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) rose to 8.8% in June from 7.2% in May. . Out of 1,300 under five years children sampled, the proportion of mid at risk, moderately malnourished and severely malnourished children was 7.7%, 6.9% and 0.5% respectively. . The current proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is above the long term mean as indicated in the figure below.

Child malnutrition - Kitui County 16 14 12 10 8 6 4

Muac<135mm Muac<135mm % 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average MUAC (2012-2016) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 Avrage MUAC 2016 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 6.8 6.7 10.75 12.25 13.8 13.25 10.2 Average MUAC 2017 7.4 7.1 8.7 8.6 7.2 8.8 Month

5.3 HEALTH . No major human disease outbreak was reported across the livelihood zones.

5.4 COPING STRATEGIES

. The average coping strategy index (CSI) declined to 7.6 in June from 8.5. This implies that, the frequency of employing coping mechanisms due to lack of food or money to buy food was higher in May compared to June. . Households in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone employed more coping strategies represented by a value of 9.8 compared to 6.4 in mixed farming livelihood zone.

Coping Strategy Index - Kitui County 10 8 6

4 MeanCSI 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CSI Value 2017 6.32 6.34 7.9 7.3 8.5 7.6

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS

. Repair and maintenance of strategic water points to drought affected areas by County Government of Kitui. . Peace building and conflict management activities by the National Government. . Okoa Uhai Cash transfer initiative targeting 30,043 beneficiaries across the county. The initiative was done by the National Government. . Cash for assets programme targeting 22,220 beneficiaries in Kitui south, Kitui East, Mwingi Central and Mwingi North sub counties. The Program implemented by Government of Kenya through Action Aid, National Drought Management Authority, Caritas Kitui and World Food Programme

6.2 FOOD AID

. Therapeutic Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition for the Under-fives, Pregnant and Lactating Mothers (Supplementary Feeding Program (SFP)), Out Patient Therapeutic Program (OTP) &Stabilization Centres) by MOH supported by several partners. . Relief food distribution by the National Government through the county commissioner’s office 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

. Although tension is high along Kitui- County boundaries over livestock in- migration, no incidents over resource based conflict were reported during the month.

7.2 Migration . Earlier than unusual livestock in migration along Kitui- boundaries was reported. The livestock were mainly in search of water and forage.

7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS

. The decline in terms of trade, increase in water distances and increased cases of malnutrition will hinder recovery process hence worsening the food security situation in the county. . The prices of the main food crops (maize and beans) are likely to remain high over the next three months and this will continue to compromise the purchasing power.

8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS . Expand the school meals programme to mixed farming livelihood zone and cover early childhood education and development units . Repair and serving of water facilities in drought affected areas. . Support integrated health and nutrition outreach programme . Promote conflict and peace building initiatives along the border and among the local communities.

Kitui County June 2017 EW Bulletin