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Transport Canada May 17, 2016 Transport Canada May 17, 2016 TRANSPORT CANADA PIEVC CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT CAMBRIDGE BAY AIRPORT FINAL PROJECT NO.: 0727-004 DATE: May 17, 2016 DOCUMENT NO.: 0727004-16-03 Suite 500 - 980 Howe Street Vancouver, BC Canada V6Z 0C8 Telephone (604) 684-5900 Fax (604) 684-5909 May 17, 2016 Project No.: 0727004 Janice Festa, Senior Policy Advisor Transport Canada 330 Sparks Street Ottawa, ON, K1A 0N5 Dear Mrs. Festa, Re: PIEVC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Cambridge Bay Airport - FINAL Please find attached the final version of our above-referenced report. Thank you for the opportunity to work on this assessment. Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact the undersigned. Yours sincerely, BGC ENGINEERING INC. per: Lukas Arenson, Dr.Sc.Techn.ETH, P.Eng. Senior Geotechnical Engineer Transport Canada, PIEVC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment May 17, 2016 Cambridge Bay Airport – FINAL Project No.: 0727-004 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BGC Engineering Inc. (BGC) was commissioned by Transport Canada (TC) in partnership with the Government of Nunavut Territories and with Engineers Canada to apply the vulnerability assessment protocol to the Cambridge Bay Airport. The assessment follows a standardized protocol prepared by the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). The airport is located on Victoria Island, Nunavut, approximately 2.6 km west of the hamlet of Cambridge Bay, and is owned by the Government of Nunavut. It was constructed in the 1950s and is the only airport in Canada where jet aircraft land on a gravel runway. Runway 13-31T is 5000 ft long, currently extended to 6000 ft. In 2015, about 4,600 aircraft movements were recorded, of which 11% were jet aircraft movements. The initial assessment looked at a 30 year projected trend in climate conditions for the Cambridge Bay region, which are based on information from historic data and climate models. Key trends are: • mean annual air temperature is increasing at about 0.6 °C per decade with warming rates greatest in winter and fall; • the number of annual freeze/thaw cycles is decreasing by less than one cycle per decade; • annual rainfall is increasing by 5 mm per decade with the maximum number of intense rainfall days occurring in the months of July and August; • first snow days are occurring later in the season whereas last snow days show no statistically significant trend; • no statistically significant trend was identified in annual total snowfall; and • no statistically significant trend was identified for changes in wind direction and intensity. In total, 24 infrastructure components and 32 climate events were identified that result in 768 potential infrastructure - climate event combinations. Those combinations would need to be discussed in detail amongst various parties to identify high and medium rick combinations. Based on the data available and our understanding of the current airport infrastructure performance, no immediate engineering action is required for Cambridge Bay Airport. The assessment suggests that five climate events may be critical: rainfall, visibility, frost, ground thawing index, and climate variability. Changes in those climate events may affect airport operations and infrastructure performance in the future and result in negative impacts on the community of Cambridge Bay for which an operating airport is a critical link in connecting to other Northern communities and the South. However, there are currently insufficient detailed data available and the occurrence of these climate events is difficult to project with confidence. In addition, current environmental and maintenance baseline data are inadequate for carrying out a detailed engineering assessment. The lack of data and understanding is an unknown that is itself a moderate risk. This risk is one that can be mitigated by setting up and operating monitoring for the next several years. It is suggested that a monitoring program be designed and implemented as soon as possible. Therefore, it is recommended to collect and record such baseline data in a systematic manner to https://coreshack.bgcengineering.ca/projects/tcairport/del/Project Reports/Cambridge Bay/Cambridge Bay Climate Vulnerability Report.docx Page i BGC ENGINEERING INC. Transport Canada, PIEVC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment May 17, 2016 Cambridge Bay Airport – FINAL Project No.: 0727-004 provide input for making informed decisions for allocating resources and for designing mitigation and adaptation strategies if those were needed. This will also help in reviewing current operation practices and assessing their value for future climate conditions. Specifically, it is recommended: • Evaluate the capacity of drainage systems to assess the resiliency of culverts and ditches against higher flows, and measure runoff and changes in surface water bodies; • Systematically collect information on the visibility in the form of detailed logbook /database on the weather conditions at the time and the characteristics of the limited visibility event; • Collect data on frost formation, such as climate parameters, timing, location and extent; • Review frost management procedures; • Update or develop an asset management system, including an evaluation of current infrastructure service lives; • Monitor local snow accumulation, including spatial (re-)distribution and note limitations to operations; • Automated measurement of ground temperatures at various locations across the airport property; • Document in a logbook / database climate-related flight delays/cancellations, as well as maintenance and repair activities, including date, location, type and extent; and • Carry out an initial climate change vulnerability assessment with several stakeholders that include the airport operators, the owners and users of the airport, and re-evaluate it every five years, as new baseline data, infrastructure performance information, and improved climate models become available. The changing climate will likely result in increased maintenance and repair efforts for which resources must be available. https://coreshack.bgcengineering.ca/projects/tcairport/del/Project Reports/Cambridge Bay/Cambridge Bay Climate Vulnerability Report.docx Page ii BGC ENGINEERING INC. Transport Canada, PIEVC Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment May 17, 2016 Cambridge Bay Airport – FINAL Project No.: 0727-004 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ i TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ v LIST OF APPENDICES ........................................................................................................ vi LIMITATIONS ...................................................................................................................... vii 1.0 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Purpose and Scope ................................................................................................. 1 1.3. PIEVC Protocol for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ......................... 2 1.3.1. Step 1 – Project Definition .................................................................................... 3 1.3.2. Step 2 – Data Gathering and Sufficiency .............................................................. 3 1.3.3. Step 3 – Risk Assessment (limited) ...................................................................... 4 1.3.4. Step 4 – Engineering Analysis (not carried out) .................................................... 4 1.3.5. Step 5 – Recommendations (limited) .................................................................... 5 1.4. Project Team ............................................................................................................ 5 1.5. Report Layout .......................................................................................................... 5 2.0 STEP 1 – PROJECT DEFINITION ............................................................................... 7 2.1. Permafrost and Infrastructure ................................................................................ 7 2.2. Climate Change Effects on Infrastructure in Permafrost .................................... 8 2.3. Identifying the Infrastructure ................................................................................. 9 2.3.1. General Site Description ....................................................................................... 9 2.3.2. Current Conditions .............................................................................................. 12 2.3.3. Elements of Infrastructure Assessed .................................................................. 15 2.3.4. Data Sources ...................................................................................................... 16 2.4. Identifying Climate Factors .................................................................................. 16 2.5. Identifying
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