Signature Redacted
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Measuring The Performance of Metro-Based Transit Oriented Development (TOD): A Comparative Study between Beijing and Singapore by Yiling Xie B.E. in Urban Planning B.A in Economics Peking University, Beijing, China (2015) Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning At the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2017 @2017 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author: Signature redacted Department of Ur an Sudies 'd Planning redacted August 10, 2017 Certified by: Signature Associate Profes'&r P.hristopher Zegras Departme t of 9rban tudies and Planning redacted Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: Signature Associate Professor . Christopher Zegras MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE C r, MCP Committee OF TECHNOLOGY Department of Urban Studies and Planning SEP 267017 LIBRARIES ARCHIVES 2 Measuring The Performance of Metro-Based Transit Oriented Development (TOD): A Comparative Study between Beijing and Singapore By Yiling Xie Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning on August 10, 2017, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in City Planning Abstract Transit oriented Developments (TOD) is a package that consists of urban form and development strategies that aims to foster efficient land use patterns to create sustainable neighborhoods. By using public transit as a focal point to create attractive environments, TOD is a promising approach to tackle urban issues such as traffic congestion, ineffective land use, and air pollution in metropolises like Beijing. Beijing, and even the entire country of China, is at its 'Golden Age' of metro system expansion. As metro systems have the capacity to reshape urban mobility and urban form, they are considered one of the key components for TOD and thus pose transformational opportunities for cities to embrace better TOD. Yet to provide suggestions to future TOD implementation, we need to first evaluate the performance of existing TOD, including outputs and outcomes of TOD. This thesis examines TOD in the Chinese context, specifically, Beijing, and compares it to Singapore, a well-recognized TOD city in Asia with comparable density to Beijing. In this thesis, I see the outputs of TOD as a spectrum of built environment indicators that characterize TOD, and the outcome of TOD as increased metro ridership. I constructed a TOD evaluation framework that contains indicators of density, diversity, design and connectivity and measures the TOD-ness of metro station area. I find that Singapore has an overall higher TOD score across its MRT station areas than Beijing, with both cities displaying better TOD-ness in the inner city areas. Yet the spatial distribution of TOD-ness is more monocentric in Singapore in the design, diversity and connectivity dimensions. I then used the TOD indicators and station-level ridership to estimate direct ridership models for both cities. I find evidence that built environment indicators, such as population density, ground-floor retail density and number of metro entrances, are positively associated with ridership. The Singapore models, overall, have a better fit than the Beijing models. I conclude by summarizing the work, identifying some challenges to improving TOD performance in Beijing, and identifying areas for future work. Keywords: Transit oriented Developments, Beijing, Singapore, built environment, indicator framework, metro station, ridership Thesis Supervisor: P. Christopher Zegras, Associate Professor of Urban Studies and Planning Thesis Reader: Joseph Ferreira, Professor of Urban Studies and Planning 3 Acknowledgement First and foremost, this thesis would not have been possible without the support of my advisor Professor Chris Zegras. Throughout my two years at MIT, Chris has been a fount of wisdom, knowledge and insights. Thank you Chris for constantly helping me shape my vague ideas and move toward the right direction. I am also very grateful to my thesis reader, Professor Joseph Ferreira, who has offered invaluable help on research methodology and insightful comments to my thesis. Thank you Joe for patiently guiding me through the statistical knowledge, data processing and model construction. Additionally, I would like'to thank Samuel Tak Lee lab for providing STL Grant to our research project- Implementing TOD in China:from The Supply Perspective. This thesis is part of the project outcome. I really appreciate that STL lab not only offered financial support but also gave great comments and data support to this thesis. I also recognize all the support I have received from my colleagues at China Sustainable Transportation Center (CSTC), who kindly directed me to the proper interviewees and offered great help in data collection. I had great time during my last summer internship at CSTC. I would also like to thank my colleagues at the TOD office for generously providing valuable comments on my research and thesis. In particular, thank you Erin Kenney, an amazing research partner and great friend. I want to thank my DUSP classmates. It has been great honor spending the past two year with a group of passionate, motivated and friendly young minds. I want to also thank all friends that I have met at MIT. Finally, I would love to thank my parents for the unconditional love and help, especially during my most difficult time at MIT. Without your encouragement and support, none of this would be possible. 4 Table of Contents Acknow ledgem ent........................................................................................................................... 4 Table of Contents............................................................................................................................ 5 List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. 8 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. 10 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Introduction and M otivation ................................................................................... 11 1.2 Research Questions .................................................................................................... 13 1.3 Research M ethod ........................................................................... 14 1.3.1 TOD indicator fram ework ............................................................................ 14 1.3.2 M ultivariate regression ................................................................................ 15 1.3.3 Com parative statistical analysis .................................................................. 15 1.4 Thesis Structure ....................................................................................................... 16 2 Literature Review ................................................................................................................... 17 2.1 The Definition of TOD .............................................................................................. 17 2.2 Scale of TOD................................................................................................................ 18 2.3 M easurem ent of TOD .............................................................................................. 20 2.4 Benefits of TOD........................................................................................................... 21 2.5 TOD and Travel Behavior ......................................................................................... 23 3 Context of Beijing and Singapore........................................................................................ 25 3.1 The city of Beijing .................................................................................................... 26 3.1.1 Beijing Overview ............................................................................................ 26 3.1.2 Beijing Subw ay.............................................................................................. 27 3.2 The city of Singapore ................................................................................................ 29 3.2.1 Singapore Overview ..................................................................................... 29 5 3.2.2 Singapore M RT............................................................................................. 31 3.2.3 Singapore TOD............................................................................................... 33 4 TOD Indicator Fram ew ork.................................................................................................... 37 4.1 TOD Area................................................................................... 37 4.2 TOD Indicators ............................................................................................................ 38 4.2.1 Density Indicators........................................................................................ 43 4.2.2 Diversity Indicators...................................................................................... 43 4.2.3 Design Indicators.......................................................................................... 43 4.2.4 Connectivity................................................................................................