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— CA9200477 - CA9200493 AECL—7822 ATOMIC ENERGY &£& L'ENERGIE ATOMIQUE OF CANADA LIMITED ^B9 DU CANADA, LIMITEE WORKSHOP ON TRANSITIONAL PROCESSES" PROCEEDINGS COMPTE RENDU DE L'ATELIER SUR LES PROCEDES DE TRANSITION Compiled by/Redige par Werner F. Heinrich *held in Ottawa, 1982 November 4 and 5 *qu: a eu lieu a Ottawa les 4 et 5 novembre 1982. Whiteshell Nuclear Research Etablissement de recherches Establishment nucleaires de Whiteshell Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 May 1984 mai Copyright '-. Ator. Energy of Canada Limited, 1984 ATOMIC ENERGY OF CANADA LIMITED WORKSHOP ON TRANSITIONAL PROCESSES* PROCEEDINGS Compiled by Werner F. Heinrich *held In Ottawa, 1982 November 4 and 5. Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1LO 1984 May AECL-7822 COMPTE RENDU DE L'ATELIER SUR LES PROCEDES DE TRANSITION* Rédigé par Werner F. Heinrich RESUME Cet atelier a été organisé dans le cadre du Programme canadien de gestion des déchets de combustible nucléaire en vue d'examiner certains aspects historiques du bouclier canadien susceptibles d'influencer l'évacua- tion des déchets de combustible nucléaire en profondeur, dans la roche plu- tonique du bouclier canadien. L'atelier a porté en particulier sur les futurs processus climatiques et géologiques probables qui pourraient influ- encer le transport des radionuclldes à travers la géosphère qui constitue la barrière principale entre une enceinte d'évacuation et la biosphère. Le présent rapport contient les exposés qui ont été présentés au cours de l'a- telier et certaines des discussions qui ont eu lieu à la suite des présenta- tions. *qui a eu lieu à Ottawa les 4 et 5 novembre 1982. L'Energie Atomique du Canada, Limitée Établissement de recherches nucléaires de Whiteshell Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 1984 mai AECL-7822 WORKSHOP ON TRANSITIONAL PROCESSES* PROCEEDINGS Compiled by Werner F. Helnrich ABSTRACT This workshop was arranged, as part of the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program, to examine some aspects of the natural history of the Canadian Shield that could have a bearing on t'.ie disposal of nuclear fuel waste deep in plutonic rock in the Shield. It also focused on probable future climatic and geological processes that could affect radionuclide transport through the geosphere, the major barrier between a disposal vault and the biosphere. This report contains the papers presented at the workshop and some of the discussions that followed the presentations. *held in Ottawa, 1982 November 4 and 5 Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 1984 May AECL-7822 CONTENTS Page FOREWORD INTRODUCTION TO TRANSITIONAL EVENTS WORKSHOP J.S. Scott BATTELLE EXPERIENCE WITH GEOLOGIC SIMULATION MODELING 5 M.G. Foley and G.M. Petrie CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT « MILLION YEARS 14 B.F. Findlay, G.A. McKay and B.E. Goodlson THE ASTRONOMICAL CLIMATIC INDEX AND ITS VALUE FOR PREDICTING FUTURE CLIMATE 40 J.V. Matthews, Jr. PAST GEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND THEIR RELEVANCE TO PRESENT- DAY FRACTURE FLOW SYSTEMS 58 P.A. Brown, J.H. McEwen and N. Rey PHANEROZOIC AND RECENT TECTONIC MOVEMENTS IN THE CANADIAN SHIELD AND THEIR SIGNIFICANCE TO THE NUCLEAR FUEL WASTE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 73 B.V. Sanford and F.J. Thompson RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PRESENT FRACTURE STATE AND THE LONG- TERM (ARCHEAN TO PRESENT) TECTONIC AND UPLIFT HISTORY OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO 97 G.F. West GLACIO-ISOSTATIC DEFORMATION IN ONTARIO 109 J.R. Bowlby GLACIALLY INDUCED STRESS CHANGES 123 H.W. Asmis and C.F. Lee (continued) CONTENTS (concluded) Page THE STRESS FIELD AND TRANSIENT STRESS GENERATION AT SHALLOW DEPTHS IN THE CANADIAN SHIELD 136 H.S. Hasegawa APPLICATIONS OF TECHNIQUES OF GLACIAL GEOLOGY TO RADIO- ACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL MODELLING 174 W.W. Shilts GLACIAL AND POSTGLACIAL STRESS CHANGES IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC: THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR ROCK FRACTURE STUDIES 191 J. Adams CONDITIONS AT THE ICE/ROCK INTERFACE OF LARGE ICE SHEETS 200 F.M. Koerner POTENTIAL HYDRODYNAMIC EFFECTS OF GLACIATION ON THE CANADIAN SHIELD 212 J.A. Vanhof SUMMARY STATEMENT HYDROGEOLOGY 229 J.A. Vanhof THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DISTURBANCE OF A BURIED NUCLEAR WASTE VAULT BY LARGE-SCALE METEORITE IMPACT 231 R.A. Grieve and P.B. Robertson GENERAL DISCUSSION 261 COMMENTS ON THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CLIMATIC AND GEO- LOGICAL PROCESSES AND EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL EVENTS 270 E.F. Roots PARTICIPANTS 296 FOREWORD W.F. Helnrlch Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment Pinawa, Manitoba ROE 1L0 Estimating the Impact on man of a sealed nuclear fuel waste disposal vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield requires assumptions about the future behavior of the vault and Its environment. A probabilistic analy- sis of the impact on man over the next one million years Is being carried out at the Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment. The current analysis is of a hypothetical vault existing under present conditions somewhere In the Cana- dian Shield. Events similar to those that occurred In the past, such as cli- mate changes, glaciations and earthquakes, *3ay also occur in the future. Understanding their impact on the geology and hydrogeology of the Canadian Shield should lead to better prediction of the response of a disposal va-jlt and Its environment to such events should they occur in the future. This Workshop was arranged to analyze some aspects of the natural his- tory of the Canadian Shield that could have a bearing on the safety analysis of a disposal vault. It focused on how probable future climatic and geologi- cal processes may affect radionuclide transport through the geosphere, the major barrier between a disposal vault and the biosphere. The Workshop was attended by over forty scientists working in areas relevant to the problem. The papers presented at the Workshop are published in these proceedings. Discussion among participants was an Important ispect of the Workshop. To provide sufficient time for this, geocliemical changes In the geosphere and the thermal effects of a waste vault were not covered during the Workshop. They are, however, being studied In research projects within the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the cooperation and the help of the many people who contributed to the successful organization of the Workshop and to the preparation of the proceedings. Among these are the authors and invited speakers who made high-quality contributions; the staff of the Earth Physics Branch of Energy, Mines and Resources Canada in Ottawa who made local arrange- ments and supplied the facilities; the participants in the Workshop who con- tributed so well to the discussions; and the staff of Technical Information Services of the Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment who provided exten- sive editorial services. INTRODUCTION TO TRANSITIONAL EVENTS WORKSHOP J. S. Scott Energy, Mines and Resources Canada Geological Survey of Canada 601 Booth Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8 As chairman of the first session of this workshop I would like to extend to you, on behalf of both Atomic Energy of Canada Limitedt and Energy, Mines and Resources Canada (EMR), a warm welcome to what I am sure will be a most interesting and informative two days of presentations and discussions. Special thanks are extended to our colleagues at Earth Physics Branch, EMR, for providing facilities for the workshop and to Werner Heinrich, AECL/ WNRE*,for his initiative and organizational efforts that have brought us together. Multidisciplinary research pertaining to the management and eventual disposal of high-level nuclear fuel wastes has been underway in Canada for almost 10 years. While numerous conferences, seminars and workshops have been heid during this period on many facets of nuclear waste management, this workshop is the first to be held in Canada on the subject of transitional events that will have an important bearing upon the future operational cap- ability and safety of a waste disposal vault. Accordingly, the purpose of the workshop is: "to develop a conceptual model of the effects of probable future climatic, geological and other processes and how these may affect radionuclide transport through the geosphere." Since a number of participants in this workshop have not had any previous direct contact with the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program (CNFWMP), it may be useful to provide a brief commentary on the organization and objectives of the geoscience components of the Program. As shown on Figure 1, research programs in Geology, Geophysics, Rock Properties and Hydrogeology, as well as other components in CNFWMP, are being undertaken to provide the necessary scientific data to assess the concept of geological disposal, particularly as it relates to plutonic igneous rocks of the Ontario portion of the Canadian Shield. These research programs comprise more than three dozen specific tasks that range in scale from broad regional studies through detailed surface and borehole surveys at specific research areas to laboratory studies of rock and mineral properties at the microscopic scale. Each of these tasks contributes in its way to an understanding of the cap- ability of rock masses to contain radionuclides or to retard their migration from a waste disposal vault to the biosphere. Data and information from each specific task within the program, as well as from other national and international waste management programs, must then be digested and synthesized to form the basis for the development of a series of submodels representing major components of the waste management system. t AECL * Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishment - 2 - Submodels include those for the dosphere, Vault and Biosphere, which col- lectively provide the input for a Systems Variability Analysis Code (SYVAC). The output from SYVAC, along with other supporting documentation describing and evaluating a generic waste disposal vault and its forecast performance, then forms the basis for a Concept Assessment Document (CAu) that will be presented to regulatory agencies and to the public as a necessary preliminary step in the licensing and approvals process that will precede site selection.