Registered Charity No. 1120876 Europoint House 5 Lavington Street London SE1 0NZ Telephone : +44 (0)20 7261 9650 E-mail : education@britain-.org Website: www.britain-nigeria.org CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA DIGEST – December 2014

 Education  West African Secondary School Certificate Examinations and National Examinations Council , Minister of Education has disclosed that High Schools’ students in Nigeria usually record mass failure in external examinations particularly in West African Secondary School Certificate Examinations (WASSCE) and National Examinations Council (NECO) due to the acute shortage of qualified English and Mathematics teachers in Nigerian schools. This, according to the Minister, has further troubled the quality of education and contributed a marginal decline in the performance of candidates of such examinations since details of the May/June 2014 WASSCE result indicated that only 529,425 candidates, representing 31.28% of the 1.7 million candidates who wrote the examinations, obtained credits in five subjects and above including English Language and Mathematics.

The Minister, who in conjunction with Governor of , declared open the Ministerial Session at the 60th National Council on Education (NCE) Meeting held in recently. He lamented the dearth of qualified teachers in core subjects offering in Nigerian secondary schools, adding: “there is no doubt that we have a challenge in among others, the availability of teachers of Mathematics and English Language.” He however, revealed that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian Educational Research and Development Council (NERDC), had introduced in September this year, an e-curriculum which “would ensure that teachers, learners and other relevant stakeholders have easy online access to the prescribed national curriculum in all subjects.”

Similarly, the Minister decried the high level of damage the insurgency had done to the Northern education, especially the North Eastern part of the country as it constitutes a grave danger to education in the affected areas, saying all efforts must be directed at overcoming the security challenges for normalcy to return to the affected areas. “The prevailing insecurity situation in the north eastern part of Nigeria has disrupted academic life in a number of our public schools. Nigerian educational institutions and students have become endangered due to the attacks. “We can no longer afford to underestimate the need to map out co-ordinated action plan for our institutions to always be on security alert. There is the need for us to continually review security issues in our institutions so as to protect our children from harm.”

 West African Examination Council In the first week of November, the House of Representatives Committee on Public Accounts accused the West African Examination Council of misappropriation of billions of Naira. According to the Committee, the Council, which receives an annual budget worth several billions of Naira, has failed to remit its revenue generated to the Federal Government since its inception. The Committee has also alleged that the Council has failed to provide audited accounts to the Auditor General of the Federation and relevant Committees of the National Assembly since 2010. As a result, Solomon Adeola, the Chairman of the House Committee, announced that his Committee would be investigating the accounts of WAEC for the years 2011, 2012 and 2013.

He added “The attitudinal behaviour you, WAEC, have exhibited over the years does not portray the kind of institution Nigerians expect from their WAEC. Is it the monumental fraud, or lack of records, or financial improprieties that have taken place in the institution? I was not taken aback when I found your name on that list; I was not surprised, it is expected.”

According to the Head of Office of WAEC Nigeria, Mr Charles Eturidu, there are a number of State Governments that owe the Council some N3 billion in respect of examination fees, which the Council has had to fund by borrowing from banks. According to him, there are 10 States that owe N3 billion, of which Government alone owes N300 million for 2013 and 2014 WAEC examination fees. Within the last few weeks Borno, Akwa Ibom, Kebbi, and Sokoto States have all paid their outstanding fees, leaving 6 States still owing a substantial amount of money for which they do not have the funds due to the low allocations that they have been receiving this year from the FAAC. The 6 remaining States are likely to have difficulty in the next few months in making their outstanding payments, due to the deterioration in the Nigerian economy as a result of the fall in the world oil price. This has resulted in the allocations from the Federal Account Administration Committee falling on a monthly basis, making it almost impossible for the 36 States to meet all of their obligations in terms of salaries and debts.

 National Teachers Institute On 18 th November, Dr Ladan Sharehu, the Director General of the National Teachers Institute, announced that his organisation is to retrain 4,070 primary school teachers in order to enable them to acquire new skills that will improve their knowledge and ability to teach primary school children. In addition, according to the Special Assistant to the President on the Millennium Development Goals, Dr Precious Gbenoil, her office in conjunction with the NTI has so far successfully trained 610,032 public primary and junior secondary school teachers nation-wide.

 The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) At a conference that ended on 1 st November, the ASUU, and other unions in Nigeria's universities, decided to ask the Federal Government to declare a State of Emergency in the education sector. The unions also called for the re- conceptualisation of the Nigerian education sector in a manner capable of performing its transformative functions for the individuals, groups and the nation at large. The unions led by ASUU also resolved to develop and present to the Federal Government a new education policy (Chatter) which will reflect the aspirations, culture, values and realities of the Nigeria people within the context of a dynamic world.

According to the unions, there is need for the Federal Government to declare a state of emergency in the education sector owing to the fact that “The current educational system is characterised by chronic under-funding, bad leadership, and infrastructural decay, poor conditions of learning and service, promotion of mediocrity, shortage of personnel (academic, technical and administrative) and entrenchment of orthodoxy, parochialism and chauvinism.” These were contained in a communiqué jointly signed by the president of the four unions (ASUU, National Association of Academic Technologists (NAAT), Non-academic Staff Union of Universities and Associated Institutions (NASU) and Senior Staff Association of Nigerian Universities (SSANU)) at the end of a week long National Education Summit held in . A copy of which was made available to reporters in Ibadan by the Ibadan Zonal Co-ordinator of ASUU, Prof. Olusegun Ajiboye.

The four unions who jointly held the summit themed “Towards a System of Education for Liberation in Nigeria” warned the Federal Government not to use public funds such as Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund), Petroleum Trust Development Fund (PTDF) among others to fund private educational institutions and associated enterprises. While condemning corruption, lack of professionalism, poor and opportunistic leadership, and unethical conducts that impinge on learning environment and the integrity of teaching and research, the unions called on their members nation-wide to rid the sector of these ills.

While rejecting the systematic privatisation of education and selling off of public educational institutions, the unions described education as public good, which must not be left in the hands of private individuals who are driven solely by profit. The communiqué read in part, “the fundamental problem bedevilling the educational system in Nigeria is that it is located within a philosophical and political economic system which emphasises personal self-enrichment and individual aggrandisement instead of emphasising knowledge acquisition geared towards public good and national development.”

 Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics and the Colleges of Education Academic Staff Union The ASUP, which had been on strike from October 4, 2013 and COEASU, which had been on strike from December 18, 2013 suspended their action on 12 th July 2014 to enable the new Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, to investigate their complaints. As a result, he established a Technical Committee to resolve the problems. However, some 3 months later, according to the ASUP President, Mr Chibuzor Asomugha in an interview on 3 rd November both the teachers and their students were not happy in the delay in resolving all of the outstanding issues.

One of the major issues is the subject of the payment of arrears accruing to the unions, who would appear to be on the verge of resuming their strike unless the Technical Committee finishes its investigations and reports to the Minister in order for him to meet with the two unions to resolve this crisis.

 Tertiary Education Trust Fund The Executive Secretary of the TET Fund, Professor Bogoro, has announced that N100 million has been released for the establishment of entrepreneurship centres in every Federal and State University in Nigeria. In making his announcement, Professor Bogoro stated “It is our belief that these centres, when fully operational, will provide the much needed platform for lecturers, students and members of the public to articulate appropriate strategies for growing entrepreneurship skills for national development. The training will further enhance the knowledge, skills and

2 abilities of lecturers in business development skills so that they will impart their knowledge to their students using the train the trainers approach.” He explained that entrepreneurship has become an increasingly important avenue towards accelerating growth in Nigeria and is also one of the major factors considered for the ranking of universities in the world.

In a separate announcement, the Professor stated that TET has spent N23,842 billion in the acquisition of e-libraries for use in all public universities, polytechnics and colleges of education throughout Nigeria.

There are currently 129 universities in Nigeria of which 50 are private and as such are prohibited from accessing TET funds. The TET Fund Act was established in 2011 and charged with the responsibility of imposing, managing and dispersing the Education Tax to public tertiary institutions in Nigeria, but there is now a major campaign for the private universities to be allowed to access at least some part of the TET Fund.

 Teacher’s Salaries In a public statement on 3 rd November, the Governor, Muazu Babangida Aliyu, lamented the non-payment of teacher’s salaries by several State Governments throughout Nigeria. He said, “It is disheartening to hear that teachers have not been paid their salary for months in some States in the country. Teachers cannot perform if they do not eat, and are not able to eat, and to feed their families. Teachers must be respected; they should be paid their dues after doing their job. I call on all Governors and the Federal Government to ensure prompt payment of salaries and allowances to teachers.”

The problem here is not that the State Governments are deliberately avoiding meeting their obligations, but it is the general economic situation in Nigeria. It was predicted months ago that this would cause serious problems in the second half of the year due to the events in the world oil market, as a result of which, for the past six months, the monthly allocations to the State Governments from the Federal Account Allocation Committee have fallen month by month to the extent that the State Governments are unable to meet all their obligations.

This has led the Federal Government to take emergency measures regarding the economy, which are dealt with later on in this Digest. However, these will not resolve the current problems of paying teachers salaries, which is a statement made with great regret but it is the reality of the economic situation in Nigeria today.

 The State Governor, Chief , has approved a 20% reduction in school fees across the board for the State- owned University, Abia State University in Uturu. Before the reduction, the University had the reputation of having one of the highest fees in the country, which forced many students to drop out. According to a statement by the Secretary to the Abia State Government, the gesture was to boost education in the State as a result of the present economic situation in the country occasioned by the drop in oil prices in the international market, as a result of which students of the University and their parents are facing great difficulty coping with the demands of the school fees in the institution.

 After over 220 days, following the abduction of 278 girls from the Government College in Chibok, the Borno State Government has reopened all of its primary and secondary schools. For security purposes the Borno State Government has purchased 78 buses to transfer pupils from their homes to the schools, in addition to which contracts have been awarded for the construction of 20 two-bedroom bungalow flats in several schools across the State for staff quarters as well as the drilling of bore-holes in the majority of schools.

The State has Government has also announced that it is to spend N100 million on 51 of the schoolgirls who managed to escape their captors in order that they may complete their secondary school education in another State. Plans have now been concluded to send them to either Jos or Kaduna to continue their studies. Six girls have secured scholarships to complete their secondary school education at the American University of Nigeria Academy in Yola.

 In the second week of November, the Kebbi State Executive Council announced the approval for the immediate recruitment of 4,000 new teachers to teach at schools throughout the State. It also approved the purchase of new textbooks worth N1 billion for distribution to all schools throughout the State, which is an exercise to be completed by 2015. According to the State Commissioner for Education, Alhaji Abdul Ulmumini Kamba, the State Government has a target to recruit and have in place 15,000 teachers by January 2015. At present the State has some 7,000 teachers and recently embarked on a recruitment exercise at the end of which they decided to offer positions to some 6,000 new qualified teachers and they are still searching for another 2,000 in order to achieve their target.

3 All teachers in the State have undergone training at the National Teachers Institute (which was mentioned earlier in this report,) in order to improve their skills.

The Kebbi State Government is one of the more progressive States in the country in terms of the education sector. So far, the current administration has constructed over 200 new junior secondary schools, whilst it has an ongoing programme of upgrading their existing secondary schools. The State Commissioner lamented that Kebbi State only has 4 almajiri schools and has called in the Federal Government to allocate more of such schools to the States in order that they can achieve their objective of eradicating street begging. It is also the main objective of the Government for introducing the programme. The State Government is also one of the very few that has a boarding school specifically designed to cater for physically challenged students in the State. It has called on the Universal Basic Education Commission to allocate more such schools to the State.

 The concept of promoting the use of integrated communication technologies in raising the standard of teaching and learning in Lagos in particular, and Nigeria in general, has been given a further boost by Multi-Choice Nigeria with the inauguration of 10 additional resource centres in Lagos. These were opened during the third week of November and bring the total number of resource centres in the State to 18. Throughout the country, Multi-Choice resource centres total 312 and are spread across 29 States. Multi-Choice is a way of education that applies the use of integrated communication technologies to raise the standard of education by deploying the imagery of sight and sound to make learning more vivid and creative.

According to the organisation at Multi-Choice, they have a strong conviction that the technological, economic, social and political advancement of any country has a direct correlation with its level of educational development and that the future of the country is intrinsically tied to the quality of education to which the students are exposed. Every beneficiary school receives a television set, a high definition personal video recorder decoder, a generating set, and a complimentary subscription to DS TV Education Bouquet. This contains BBC World, BBC Knowledge, National Geography, Animal Planet, National Geography Wild, the History Channel, Learn and EDC Channel. Other facilities such as chairs and tables are also provided.

 The Joint Admission and Matriculation Board At the end of November the JAMB announced that it had approved 30 total computer based centres for the 2015 Unified Tertiary Matriculation examinations in Lagos State. This is a considerable improvement on the situation in 2014 when there were only 5 such centres, whilst the remainder had to undertake paper/pencil, computer based and the dual based modules.

Following JAMB's decision that it was now migrating to a fully all computer based test, the co-ordinator, Dr Beatrice Okorie, stated “Consequently, about 30 centres are now full equipped with the necessary systems, soft ware and backups that have been approved for the conduct of the examinations in 2015.” This means the 30 centres are expected to be capable of meeting all the necessary requirements of the JAMB in the State and, in the longer term, more such centres will be constructed. They will each have a minimum of 150 computers for students to sit their examinations on.

 The State chapter of the National Union of Teachers has embarked on a strike to press home its demands for improved conditions of service amongst other demands. However, the strike has led to a sharp division amongst teachers in the State to the extent that the secondary school teachers have cancelled their membership of the NUT and formed a parallel union, The Academic Staff Union, of Secondary Schools. Subsequently the new Union has been joined by primary school teachers so that some schools in the State are operating normally, whilst others are closed due to the action taken by the NUT. This, according to the State Co-ordinator of the new Union, is unnecessary considering the dwindling allocation received by the State Government.

 A Total of 152 almajiri schools have so far been constructed by the Federal Government, with the north having the highest number, of which Sokoto State has 9. According to Professor Musa Maitassiri, Chairman of the Sokoto State Universal Basic Education Fund, the almajiri schools are situated in different local governments throughout the State and are all being fully used towards improving the well being of pupils of qur'anic and Tsangaya schools.

However, qur'anic scholars in Sokoto have expressed great disappointment in the manner in which the programme of teaching these pupils is being implemented in the State as, according to them, it makes little or no impact on the pupils. In one local government area where there is one almajiri school, the local leader stated, “In spite of having the highest number of qur'anic and Tsangaya schools in the State, my local government area has not a single almajiri

4 model school. We thank God that we are still running the school in the traditional way that we are used to. Whoever relies on the Government to run his school will end up closing it. We are faced with lots of problems, but because the Government is not assisting us, we are still battling with all of our problems to maintain out schools.”

He added, “Pupils of the schools, unlike those in Lagos, have no befitting shelter, no food and in most cases they don’t eat three times a day. They don't have enough clothes as well, and they virtually have to rely on begging for feeding and clothing.” According to him, his school has over 500 pupils that come from Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi States but only has 5 teachers available to teach the students. “They are, however, being paid monthly allowances as affirming that no Government has ever offered us assistance of any kind to the school despite the fact that a team of Government officials from Abuja has visited the school recently and promised to assist the school, but nothing has come as a result of that visit.”

 In view of the security situation in the North East of Nigeria, the Yobe State Government has, with great reluctance, indefinitely shut all primary and secondary school and several councils of the State until the security situation improves. The affected councils include Fika, Nangere Potiskum and Sule. The decision by the State Government affects both primary and secondary public and private schools as military sources in Damaturu confirm that operational cells of Boko Haram are located within the Potiskum township, and its environment making the operation of schools impossible.

 British Council International School Award (ISA) For their excellent commitment to embedding an international dimension in their curriculum, Glisten International Academy, Abuja, Grace Schools, Lagos, Jephthah Comprehensive Secondary School, Rivers and CITA International School, Rivers have been presented with the British Council International School Award (ISA).

The British Council International School Award is a global benchmarking project that recognises the outstanding work done by schools that are committed to developing international dimensions in the curriculum to help young learners become effective global citizens. Lynda Ashaolu, Project Manager Schools, while speaking at the awards presentation ceremony in Lagos said that across the world there is a growing recognition that scoring high marks in exams alone will not ensure success for young people. Ashaolu pointed out that only those who will be able to collaborate, think critically, work inter-culturally and resolve issues creatively, will take the world forward.

According to her “Teaching these valuable skills can be quite challenging but by working with each other, young people across the world can develop these skills enjoyably, while mastering their core subject areas. ISA provides a framework for schools to develop an action plan and implement international activities throughout the year, and encourages schools to collaborate with schools overseas to create a rich learning experience for students through use of ICT, creative pedagogical practices and real context for learning.

Nigeria is the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to deliver the ISA to schools. The programme was launched in the country in June 2013 and the pilot round had an intake of 8 schools. I have been impressed and delighted by the range of international activities that have taken place in these schools and to hear the feedback of how these activities have helped to raise young people’s awareness of the wider world and challenge many stereotypes that exist.”

 Nigerian Students rated tops in U.S. and UK universities Beneficiaries of the Presidential Scholarship Scheme studying in the United States and United Kingdom have been rated among top grades by their various universities. President had in 2012, established the scholarship scheme for innovation and development in order to further the education of students with first class degrees to 25 top rated universities in the world.

The Executive Secretary of the National Universities Commission (NUC), Professor Julius Okojie during an interactive session with the students in London, said he was glad that the scheme has taken off. “The American system has a four-point maximum scale; most of our students are on 3.8 or 4 points which is very outstanding, and no student has failed to transit from Masters to Ph.D., this is also a good record. It means that this scheme itself shows that the quality of our product is good.”

According to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Okojie who also doubles as the Chairman of the scheme said that the performance of the students were being monitored on a regular basis “we monitor them and get reports from their supervisors.” According to him, no student has dropped out of the programme since it began, which is regarded as one of the administration’s best scholarship programmes.

5  Politics  The All Progressives Congress Party's Presidential Convention The APC presidential primary elections were held on 10 th December when some 7,200 delegates descended on Lagos to vote for their party's presidential candidate for the elections on February 15 th next year. This was the most keenly awaited event of the whole year. There were 5 candidates vying for the Party's nomination, of which the 2 front- runners were the former Head of State, Muhammudu Buhari, and the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. According to all of the reports prior to the convention, these two were running neck and neck, but the night before the votes were actually cast, news emerged that 12 of the APC Governors had decided to support the former Head of State. In addition, he was known to have been endorsed by the founder and godfather of the Party, , and a 2-term Governor of Lagos State.

Immediately before voting commenced, there was one final meeting between the founders of the Party and the candidates, to try and reach agreement on a consensus presidential nominee, but all of the candidates insisted that the primary elections must proceed in accordance with the constitution of the Party. Voting for the nominees began on a state- by- state basis, in alphabetical order, but even before all the votes had been cast, at 6.30pm that evening Atiku Abubakar issued a statement congratulating Mohammudu Buhari on his victory. It was not until several hours later that the final news emerged that Mohammudu Buhari had won by a landslide majority polling 3,430 votes as against the 954 votes polled by Atiku Abubakar who was in fact beaten into second place by the State Governor , who secured 974 votes. The other 2 candidates, Governor from , and Mr Sam Nda-Isaiah polled 624 and 10 votes respectively.

Despite the fact that he had lost the last 3 presidential elections, notably the 2011 election when he was defeated by President Jonathan who secured the majority of over 10 million votes over him, the margin of this victory came as a remarkable shock. It defied completely all of the beliefs of the press and of analysts that this was going to be a closely run election. Whilst analysis of the voting is not yet fully available it is quite clear that with the exception of Adamawa and Kano States, Muhammudu Buhari won all of the votes from the rest of the Northern geopolitical zone, all of the votes from the South West geopolitical zone which were delivered to him by the founder of the party, Bola Tinubu. Additionally he must have won in Edo, Kwara, Ogun, Osun, Oyo and Rivers States, amongst others, to have been able to achieve such a remarkable margin of victory.

All of the other losing candidates immediately and publicly proclaimed their support for Muhammudu Buhari, and promised to work with him and the party in order to ensure that he will emerge as victor in next year's election. In his acceptance speech, Muhammudu Buhari said, “The outcome of the presidential primaries is a demonstration of democracy at work. What has happened is not about winning or losing but about freedom of association. I wish to thank my fellow contenders for putting up a good fight. I extend my gratitude for accepting my nomination and I will meet with you in due course to fashion out how we will win the elections. It is with a deep sense of humility that I accept your nomination to be the candidate and flag-bearer of the APC. I stand before you and ask you that you join me to bring about the needed change for this country. It is either we advance as one, or we fail together”.

Muhammedu Buhari's presidential campaign will be based on a 9-point agenda, which is: - 1. The protection of lives and property 2. The pursuance of economic policies for share prosperity, and to give immediate attention to youth employment 3. To develop quality education modernity and social mobility 4. To revive agricultural productivity, take millions out of poverty, and to ensure food security 5. To revive industries; to generate employment and make things, not just to remain hawkers of other people’s goods. 6. To develop solid mineral exploitation which will substantially attract employment and revenue for the government 7. To restore honour and integrity to the public service by keeping the best and attracting the best. 8. As a priority, to tackle corruption which has become blatant and widespread. The rest of the world looks at Nigeria as the home of corruption, but he says Nigeria is a country where stealing is not corruption. 9. Respecting the constitutional separation of power among the executive, legislature, and judiciary, and respecting the rights of all citizens.

These principles will now form the main basis of the APC’s election manifesto, which will be published early in January. Muhammudu Buhari's next move is to select a Vice Presidential running-mate, and press reports suggest that the decision as to who will be selected will be done in very close conjunction wit Bola Tinubu, who, having delivered the South West geopolitical zone vote for his nomination, will have a great influence as to who emerges as the VP running mate.

All eyes are on the South East geopolitical zone, where the APC currently holds no seats in either the National Assembly or any of the State Houses of Assembly, with the exception of . Here, the Governor, , defected from PDP to APC, and would be able to deliver a large proportion of the votes in that zone for the

6 APC. He is considered to be the front runner to be nominated form that position at the present time. The other obvious choice would be , the Governor of , in the South South geopolitical zone, who also defected from PDP to APC.

 The People's Democratic Party’s presidential conventions On the same day Muhammudu Buhari won the APC's nomination, President Goodluck Jonathan formally accepted his Party's nomination as their presidential candidate for the 2015 election, and took the opportunity in his acceptance speech to confirm that the current Vice President, , would again be his running-mate. This killed rumours that he might have chosen either the Governor of , or another Northern State Governor, Isa Yaguda.

 Analysis Even at this early stage it is quite clear that the 2015 presidential elections are going to be very close and very fiercely contested. There will be no re-running of the overwhelming defeat that President Jonathan inflicted on Muhammudu Buhari in 2011. Already the Senate President, , has told President Jonathan that the PDP does have serious opponents to contend with, at all levels in the 2015 elections, and that the Party has a major fight on its hands to remain in power. Coming from such an eminent politician, senior member of the PDP and former State Governor in a number of military administrations during the 1980's, this is quite a remarkable statement but it must be seen as recognition of the reality of the situation that the PDP is in and the real force that the APC has become.

As a result the PDP has already challenged Muhammudu Buhari to face President Jonathan in a public, televised debate which would be the first time that this has ever happened in Nigeria .

 International Developments After an accusation by the Nigerian Ambassador to the USA that the latter had refused to provide assistance to Nigeria in the form of military equipment and military intelligence, the State Department of the USA issued a statement that said, “The USA has provided and approved sales of military equipment to Nigeria's armed forces, despite previously denying this, and has at last begun to share military intelligence with the Nigerian Army.” The State Department spokesman, however, did admit that his Government had blocked the sale of Cobra attack helicopters, the most modern and sophisticated in the world, from Israel to Nigeria “due to concerns about Nigeria's ability to use and maintain this type of helicopter.”

On 10 th December the Federal Government confirmed that Nigeria has officially reached an arms deal with Russia to be supplied with, amongst other things, a squadron of modern fighter jets that are being financed by the US$1 million loan approved by the National Assembly in October at the request of President Jonathan. USA-Nigeria relations declined somewhat early in the month with the news announced by the US Embassy in Abuja that at the request of the Nigerian Government the US has been asked to discontinue its training of a new Nigerian Army battalion. The statement confirms that earlier in the year, the US had trained 2 battalions of civilian personnel with basic soldiering skills and a third battalion was due to begin training in the New Year. But the Nigerian Government explained that the reasons that it curtailed the training was due to the conditions laid down by the US Government amongst which were that the Nigerians being trained had to hand over to the US trainers all of their arms and ammunition for reasons that remain unexplained.

In a statement the Nigerian Government said, “Nigeria and the US have had strong military relations to date. It's still ongoing and strong.” In January the last of the special forces being trained in Russia are due to return to Nigeria when a special forces battalion of 1200 specially trained soldiers will then be deployed to the Sambisa Forest, at which point it is only matter of time before the Army finally enters the forest in an endeavour to locate the 219 Chibok schoolgirls, drive Boko Haram out of Nigeria and finally bring peace to the North East and the whole of Nigeria.

 PDP Governorship Primaries These were held on Monday December 8 th in 31 out of the 36 States where the elections are being held in 2015. Whilst all serving PDP Governors seeking a second term of office were re-elected and, with the exception of Rivers State, all of the incumbent departed Governor’s anointed successors secured victory, there were some very interesting and controversial primary elections in some States.

The most contentious was undoubtedly in , where, due to accusations that the former Deputy Military Head of State and multi-billionaire Tydanjuma had selected his own preference, the Acting Governor Umar Garba, the National Working Committee of the PDP refused to send representatives to the State to conduct the elections. They were held 5 days later under great security in Abuja and Darius Ishaku, the immediate past Minister of State for Niger Delta Affairs, emerged as the winning candidate for the Governorship election. Isaku is largely seen as a consensus candidate, from Taraba South, and has been an advocate of a power shift to the Southern zone of the State for several years as for the last 10 years the State has been governed by a candidate from the Northern region of the State. 7 Another contentious election was held in , where despite the fact that bribes were openly offered to delegates to cast their votes in favour of certain candidates, NIseanyi Okowa emerged as the winning candidate with 406 votes against the candidacy of Chief David Edevbi, who was the candidate of the State PDP party. Subsequent reports suggest that this election may be re-run.

There were also problems with the primaries in Ogun State as, despite directives from the NWC not to conduct the primaries, the State chapter of the party did exactly the opposite and actually held elections, from which Prince Gboyega Isiaka emerged the victor. However, as the 8 other contenders boycotted the primary amongst who was a favourite and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, this is almost certainly another election that is going to have to be re-run.

The primary election in Lagos State, which was due to start at 3pm, was delayed as a bunch of hoodlums burst into the convention hall firing rifles and generally rioting it was not possible for actual voting to begin until later that evening. When the results were eventually announced late into that night, it emerged that Mr Olujimi Agbaje, who had only within the past 2 months defected from APC to PDP, had polled 434 votes defeating other candidates amongst whom was the favourite Ambassador , who polled only 345 votes.

In Rivers State, where the State Governor is at war with the President, the former Minister of Education, Mr Nyesom Wike, emerged the winner of the gubernatorial primary. He polled 1083 votes out of a total of 1108 votes that were actually cast and the other 24 contenders who had been cleared to contest the election withdrew their candidacy. This may well not be the end of this election as a statement subsequently issued by a spokesman on behalf of the defeated coalition candidates stated, “Rivers mainstream coalition condemns the show of the sham called the Rivers PDP Governorship primaries. We reject it in its entirety and we shall make our position known as soon as possible. All coalition partners should rest assured that we will not concede our State to a rogue politician. We advise that you wait for our next action.”

For the first time since democracy returned to Nigeria in Eboni State the deputy Governor, Mr David Umahi, emerged as the winning PDP gubernatorial candidate, the first time that a serving Governor has emerged to succeed his principal in the round of gubernatorial elections.

In the former Chairman of the EFCC, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu won the gubernatorial primary by a landslide of 688 votes. He defeated the Deputy State Governor James Ngilari who polled only 26 votes.

 The All Peoples Congress Party Governorship Primary elections The APC gubernatorial primaries were not without their controversies as well. All of the APC State Governors who were standing for election for a second term of office were duly successful in winning their primaries. As with the PDP, in the winning candidate was the nominated preference of the State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who defeated the anointed candidate of Muhammudu Buhari by an overwhelming majority of 5, 462 votes. Whilst this may be seen as a setback for Muhammudu Buhari, given the fact that it was the Governor's own State and the fact that he was also an APC presidential contender, it is perhaps not such a surprise but the margin of victory undoubtedly is.

Another anointed candidate emerged in Rivers State, where the Hon Dakuku Peterside won the election unopposed as the consensus governorship candidate for the State, with the clear backing of the State Governor. In Adamawa State there was yet another setback for Atiku Abubakar, who for the second time in 3 months saw his anointed candidate defeated by Senator Mohammed Bindow, but only by a margin of 697 votes.

Undoubtedly the most contentious APC primary as held in Lagos State, where the APC candidates were divided between the anointed preferential choice of Bola Tinubu, Chief Ambode who was opposed by the former Attorney General of the State, Mr Olasupo Shasore, the preference of the incumbent State Governor , but it was the former who won overwhelmingly by 3,735 votes to Mr Shasore, who came a distant fifth with 121 votes. The other candidates who had been cleared to contest the Lagos primary walked out of the election venue accusing the national APC leader of manipulating the primary in favour of his anointed candidate.

The 2015 gubernatorial election in Lagos State is going to be extremely interesting as it is the APC's stronghold, but the PDP's winning candidate had only recently defected from the APC where he was a senior party member and will almost certainly split the APC vote in the State creating the opportunity for the PDP to win the State for the for time since 1999.

In Taraba State, for the first rime since democracy was restored, the first ever female gubernatorial candidate emerged when Senator Jumai Arhasan who had been the front-runner to win the election duly did so after her three 8 opponents withdrew and she stands a very good chance of winning the election in 2015 thus becoming Nigeria's first female State Governor.

In , Mr Umana Umana emerged as the APC's gubernatorial candidate, having only defected from PDP to APC one week prior to the elections when it became clear that he could not win the PDP gubernatorial primary in the State. In the former Minister for the Federal Territory, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai won the gubernatorial election. And in Sokoto, as expected, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the controversial Aminu Tambuwal (who had only recently defected from PDP to APC) won the governorship election by an overwhelming majority.

 The Potential Impeachment of President Jonathan Prior to the National Assembly going on recess in order to participate in the political parties primaries and conventions, there had been moves initiated in the lower House to bring impeachment proceedings against President Jonathan on a list of 50 charges. At the time they broke up, the House of Representatives had obtained over 200 signatures to support the motion, which is enough in terms of the Constitution for a vote to be taken in the lower House, whilst in the Senate it is known that 63 Senators have signed the same motion.

A coalition of aggrieved Senators from both PDP and APC are considering bringing impeachment charges against the Senate President David Mark for not protecting them in the recently concluded party primaries. It is understood that the APC Senators are united in support of the motion and are hoping that they will be joined by aggrieved Senators who lost out in the primaries and will not return to the Senate, having lost their primary elections to other PDP candidates. It is understood that there are 50 serving PDP Senators who lost out in their bid to return to the Chamber in the elections in February. These include the Senate Leader, Victor Egba and the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Rules and Business, Solomon Enang. They are supported by current Senators from Adamawa, Abia, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi and Plateau States, amongst others, as a result of the National Working Committee of the PDP's decision that only two out of three serving Senators were guaranteed to return winning their primaries.

The original idea was to vote in both Houses on December 3 rd , but instead the lower House went on recession and did not resume until 16 th December, when it is expected that they may well attempt to vote on bringing impeachment proceedings against the President. If this does happen and does result in the President's impeachment a special note will be sent to members advising them of the outcome of such impeachment proceedings.

David Mark, who has been a major figure in Nigerian politics since the mid-1970's, having previously served in senior positions in various military administrations, has been President of the Senate, unchallenged, since 1999, but the aggrieved Senators are seriously considering bringing impeachment proceedings against him, and replacing him with either the Senate minority leader, , or another staunch member of the APC and Chairman of the Senate Committee on the Environment and Economy, , who comes from and is a former two-term Governor of that State.

This week promises to be an extremely interesting and potentially disastrous one both for President Jonathan and David Mark and the situation is being monitored extremely closely. Should the President actually be impeached, members will be advised immediately through the issue of a special notice.

 The Economy Since the end of June, the world oil price has fallen by 30% having a devastating effect on the Nigerian economy. It is estimated that Nigeria has lost US$11.5 billion in oil revenues. As a result the Government, in conjunction with the Central Bank, has been forced to introduce a series of austerity measures which will be dealt with later on in this Report.

On 15 th October, in accordance with the terms of the 1999 Constitution, the Federal Government submitted to the National Assembly its 2015-7 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, in conjunction with the 2015 Federal Government Budget. At that time the 2015 budget was going to be based on an oil benchmark price of US$78 per barrel, with oil production set at 2.278mbpd. This was slightly lower than the budgeted figure for 2014, but during 2014 oil production never rose above 1.95 mbpd due to oil theft, oil piracy (in the last 3 years it is estimated that Nigeria has lost a total of N 21.6 trillion in revenue) and pipe line vandalism.

The budget proposed a capital expenditure of N 4.143 trillion, whilst recurrent expenditure was set to be N2.622 trillion. Although no sectoral breakdowns were made available at the time, it was known that the Government proposed to continue to subsidise petrol at a cost of N 971 billion, in addition to which it introduced a subsidy for kerosene which would cost N 250 billion. This, despite the recommendations of the National Conference that the fuel subsidy should be phased out over a period of 3 years. Revenue projections for 2015 at that time were N7.28 trillion 9 from oil and gas alone, whilst non-oil revenue target was set at N3.55 trillion, but at the end of the month the National Assembly rejected all 3 documents, returning then to the President with a request that they be redrafted, then resubmitted to the National Assembly in view of the continuing decline in the worlds oil price which made the proposals unrealistic and unachievable.

As a result of the fall in the world oil price, the sharp depreciation of the Naira at both the official and the parallel markets, and the decline in the country's foreign exchange reserves, on November 6 th the Central Bank of Nigeria announced that the sale of dollars at its retail Dutch Auction system to importers of telecoms equipment, power generators, electronics, invisible business transactions, power generators and information technology would no longer be handled by the Central Bank. Instead, in future importers of such equipment would have to source their foreign exchange from the interbank market and foreign exchange dealers.

In November alone, the Naira fell by 9%, whilst foreign exchange reserves fell by 6%. On November 24 th the CBN Monetary Policy Committee decided to devalue the Naira by 8.34% moving its official rate to N 168+/-5% = U&S$1.00. At the same time it raised the interest rate bench mark from 12% to 13% which proposed total expenditure of N4.661 trillion, which was some N156 billion lower than the previous submission.

The new budget introduced a shock move by reducing the petroleum subsidy from N971.1 billion to N458.6 billion in 2015. This caused an immediate storm of protest throughout the country but showed that the Government recognised how serious the economic situation in Nigeria is, due to the fall in the world price of oil. The new budget was based on a similar oil production rate as the previous submission, but was based on a bench mark price of US$73 per barrel and a foreign exchange rate of N162 = US$1.00. This, of course, was then overtaken by the devaluation of the Naira.

In the revised budget the Government again proposed reducing capital expenditure but did not reduce recurrent expenditure, which accounts for some 80% of the Federal Government's budget. At the same time a series of measures to curtail unnecessary expenditure were introduced, including: - 1. No more foreign travel by civil servants unless for specific purposes that can be defended as being absolutely necessary, 2. In addition, all foreign training programmes will be stopped, and in future all training will take place within Nigeria, with the exception of that which is sponsored with overseas finance. 3. The Federal Government is to work to eliminate duplications amongst the functions of all of the Ministries, Departments and Agencies within the country, as identified in the Steve Ornsaye Report, but in doing so approval by the National Assembly will be required, in order that some of the Ministries, Departments and Agencies can either be merged or abolished. 4. In future, private jets, yachts, champagne, and a list of luxury goods are to be taxed and details of the specific taxes are to be announced within the next few weeks. 5. The Federal Inland Revenue Service taxation Target income for 2015 has been revised upwards from N75 billion to N160 billion.

The following day, the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee announced that the distribution to the three tiers of Government for the month would only amount to N593,337 billion, a fall of 10% on the figure disbursed in September, and the fifth successive month that the revenue to the Federal Government, State and Local Governments had fallen.

As predicted many months ago, this means that the State Governments, in particular, are not going to be able to meet their liabilities in full, in payments to contractors, civil servants and other obligations. This is a situation which is likely to get worse before it gets better. This led to the Chairman of the State Commissioners of Finance Forum writing to the President seeking the approval for the sum of US$2 billion to be withdrawn from the Excess Crude Account, and distributed amongst the 36 State Governments, in order that they could complete ongoing capital projects, and provide the necessary security to conduct the 2015 general elections. Subsequently, approval was forthcoming and at the time of going to press, the Excess Crude Account currently holds US$2.11 billion.

Fifteen days after the President had resubmitted his 2015-7 MTEF and 2015 Budget, he presented a third version to the National Assembly with the revised oil bench mark price of US$65 per barrel, and a further 12% cut in capital expenditure. However, at that time, the National Assembly was in recess due to the Political parties elections and conventions and it was not until 16 th December that it resumed sitting, by which time the price of Brent Crude had fallen to US$62.11 per barrel.

As a result, it is understood that the Minister of Finance has withdrawn the 2015 Budget and is working on new proposals to be submitted to the National Assembly in the New Year with, for the first time, a budget based on a

10 floating oil bench mark price of US$50-60 per barrel. This seems much more realistic, but with election campaign having already begun, it is clear that it will not be until February before the MTEF, the FSP and the new 2015 budget will be considered by the National Assembly.

In a speech delivered on 2 nd December, the President confirmed what his administration's policy has (in effect) been for the last 4 years and that Nigeria is set to introduce a comprehensive implementation of import substitution programmes to reduce the level of imports and the continuing drain on foreign exchange revenues that this has caused, in order to enhance local manufacturing of goods and services. Once and for all, the intention is to change the Nigerian economy from being 90% dependent on oil revenues for its foreign exchange earnings, by drastically reducing the level of imports into the country.

This is, in effect, a return to the import substitution policies that formed the basis of successive military Governments in the early 1970's and throughout the 1980's and 1990's. The benefits of such a policy can be seen immediately by looking at the President's Agricultural Transformation Agenda, which was introduced in 2012, to cut back the level of Nigeria's food imports which in 2014 cost the country US$411 billion. Through a series of measures directed primarily at micro, small and medium sized enterprises in the agricultural sector, over the last 4 years the Government (in conjunction with the Central Bank) has introduced a series of initiatives and subsidies including free distribution of fertiliser, rice seeds and sugar cane, and facilities whereby SMECS's are able to borrow funds either directly from the Central Bank for funds made available by it to commercial banks for lending to small-scale farmers who, after all, are the bedrock of the Nigerian economy, accounting for something like 70% of 'employment' in the country.

More recently, a special facility has been made available where farmers can hire heavy farming machinery at subsidised interest rates, or borrow funds from banks at (again) subsidised interest rates to purchase agricultural machinery with the repayment periods of up to 15 years, compared to the previous situation where such loans were virtually impossible to obtain. Where they were, the interest rates were so high as to be counter-productive, and loans were only available for a maximum period of 3 years. As a result of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda, the level of food imports into Nigeria in the first half of 2014 fell by over 50% compared to the same period in 2013. Nigeria is the world's largest importer and consumer of rice, in addition to which it imports wheat, sugar and fish, all staple products that are available in Nigeria. As a result of an agreement with the Bank of Industry, N13.6 billion has been made available for investment for the construction and production of new rice and cassava mills in Nigeria.

Additionally, some major Nigerian private companies have begun investing heavily in large-scale agricultural projects throughout the country. Since the ATA was introduced, Nigeria has earned N778 billion from food exports and it is estimated that by 2020, Nigeria should be able to earn US$1.6 trillion from non-oil exports as a direct result of the President's Transformation Agenda and Import Substitution Polices. A simple example of the necessity for this programme is the news that in the third quarter of 2014, the gross registered tonnage of imports discharged at Nigerian ports from overseas countries compared to the same period in 2013 amounted to 38 million metric tonnes, an increase of nearly 10%, which is a situation which clearly cannot be allowed to continue.

So, what can we expect to see in the revised 2015 budget? There will certainly be an increase in Corporation Tax and personal taxation, a freeze on wage increases, a substantial list of prohibited imports in order to protect local manufacturing, an increase customs duties and outright bans on certain imports particularly those which are considered to be luxury goods, or those that can be produced in Nigeria. This will boost local manufacturing which is currently only 50%, and will create new jobs for the 40 million unemployed youths in Nigeria, which has been one of the President’s key priorities during the last 4 years of his administration. Of course, with the knowledge that the petroleum subsidy is to be reduced by 50%, the cost of petrol will rise. This last point is a particularly sensitive subject in Nigeria, and some commentators have already suggested that it will have a major effect on the outcome of the elections.

Current estimates suggest that the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency is currently buying foreign oil at the rate of N171.36 = US$1.00, which translates to a cost of N78.67 per litre of petrol, in addition to which there is a landing cost of N88.90 per litre. When all distribution margins and costs are added to this, the effective open market price is N104.39 per litre, still leaving the Federal Government with the subsidy of N7.39 per litre. It is expected that, at that price, the cost to the Nigerian consumer is likely to be N 110 per litre of petrol. In 2012 and 2013, the cost of importation of petroleum and the oils subsidy cost Nigeria US$1.3 trillion.

If there is one bit of good news for the economy at this difficult time, it is the fact that the Federal Government receives a monthly dividend of US$1 billion from its investment in LNG. Although the world price of LNG has, like oil, fallen, it has not done so to the same extent, and with the predicted cold weather in Europe this winter, Nigeria has found new markets for its LNG for the coming 3-4 months.

11  Central Bank of Nigeria As at 15 th December Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$38.6 billion, which included US$2.1 billion in the Excess Crude Account. This provides only 4 months import cover, a marked drop on the situation of a few months ago.

At the latest Retail Dutch Auction, the Central Bank sold foreign currency at rates of N168-175 = US$1.00. On the Black Market the Naira is currently available at N188 = US$1.00.

 Inflation For the second month running, and as predicted by analysts, inflation has fallen from 8.1% per annum to 7.9%, welcome news to the Central Bank and an endorsement of its policies to control inflation in what has been a very difficult year.

 Oil Ever since the world oil boom began in the early 1970's, Nigeria chose to invest its oil revenues (heavily) in infrastructure rather than non-oil revenue base. Not for the first time in the last 40 years, Nigeria finds herself in a position that, because of the drastic fall in the price of oil (which in 2014 peaked at US$117 per barrel and is currently available for January trading at US$62.1 per barrel), it is this neglect of the non-oil sector by a succession of administrations since 1973 that has caused its most significant problems.

There are 3 main reasons why the Nigerian economy is suffering so badly from the fall in the world oil price. The first is the fall in price itself. Secondly, the fact is that Nigeria has lost its major export market, the USA. It used to export 40% of its production there, but in 2014 it did not export anything to America. Thirdly, the 4 oil refineries at Kaduna, Port Harcourt (2) and Warri, which were built in the 1970's and 1980's with the capacity to handle 450,000 litres of petrol daily, are currently only operating at a combined capacity of 16%, meaning that the majority of Nigeria's oil has to be exported and then re-imported as refined petrol.

Fortunately the President in conjunction with the private sector, has a major programme of constructing new oil refineries in various States throughout Nigeria which is in addition to those being built by certain companies in the private sector. By 2018 it is expected that Nigeria will be able to refine all of its domestic petrol requirements thus substantially reducing the drain on its foreign exchange revenues by the unnecessary exporting and importing of refined crude petrol.

Just to compound this, there are also 3 other serious problems in the Nigerian oil sector. One is oil theft, which has been going on since 1970 and seemingly no administration since then has ever dealt seriously with the oil thieves despite the fact that it must be almost certain that the Government knows precisely who these people are, but clearly they must be extremely powerful and influential. However, it is President Jonathan's administration, in the last 6 years that has probably done more than any other since Independence in attempting to diversify the Nigerian economy from its dependence on oil and build up infrastructure, notably the power sector, and invest heavily in developing the non-oil revenue sector.

Second is pipeline vandalism, which according to the Minister of Petroleum Resources, during the last 3 years some 80% of Nigeria's pipeline network has at some time been the subject of vandalism.

And thirdly, there is the increasing problem of piracy, which it is estimated in the last 3 years alone has cost Nigeria over N21 trillion in lost revenue.

The major reasons for the fall in the price of world oil are overproduction, as the majority of countries are well stocked at the present time, but particularly because of the shale oil revolution in the USA, which has revolutionised the world oil market. The majority of international analysts were surprised that at their November meeting, OPEC left their oil production figure unchanged and it is perhaps Saudi Arabia that holds the key to the situation (at least temporarily) at the moment, as it has introduced a dual pricing policy in order to compete with the USA shale oil producers.

Saudi is exporting a substantial amount of oil to the USA, at a price lower than it is exporting to other countries in the world, in order to try and force the price of oil down to where the production of shale oil in the USA becomes unprofitable, which is estimated to be approximately US$60 per barrel mark. President Obama has recently stated that he regards the USA's ability to achieve self-sufficiency in oil as a matter of national security, and as a result is prepared to subsidise the USA's shale oil production producers. It is known that Saudi Arabia has had meetings with a number of countries, including Russia, which was seeking to increase production because of the economic problems that they are experiencing due to the world oil price. 12 Separately, Saudi has held meetings with Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq, to no satisfactory outcome, particularly as far as Iraq is concerned, who wanted to cut back on oil production in an endeavour to increase the world oil price in order to finance its war against Islamic militants.

It is expected that in 2015 the USA will begin exporting 1 million barrels of oil per day, to countries primarily in the Far East in direct competition with Nigeria. Over the last 3 years President Jonathan has carefully laid the foundations for close trading partnerships with various countries in the Far East including South Korea, China, Vietnam and Thailand, and more recently a new market has opened up, surprisingly, for Nigeria to export oil to the UK where a contract to supply the Grangemouth Refinery with oil has recently been signed between NNPC and the Grangemouth operators.

International oil analysts accept that at the present time the world oil price could fall even further in 2015 causing Nigeria even greater problems, whilst other analysts and OPEC believe that the price will rise and settle at around US$80 per barrel in the middle part of 2015. In all honesty, it is like looking into glass bowl and picking out a number as in reality nobody knows what is going to happen at the present time.

 Power This is again another sector in which the President and his administration have worked tirelessly to improve the absolutely appalling power situation in Nigeria. Even today it has a record high achieved during November of power output in the entire country of 4650 mw.

During the last 5+ years, in conjunction with substantial support from the World Bank, the IFC and the African Development Bank as well as the Federal Government's own resources in a series of joint ventures with international investors and independently with State Governments, Nigeria has spent billions of US dollars in trying to upgrade its “epileptic” electricity generation in the country. This has involved the ongoing construction of several new large joint venture power stations, some small independent power plants situated in the 36 States throughout the country, and increasingly building new, gas-fired power plants. Within the last 6 weeks, plans have been announced for the construction of new hydrothermal power plants, as well as the first solar powered power plant in the country in Katsina.

Apart from these giant power plants, currently under construction, within the last 10 days the Government has announced a plan whereby all villages throughout the country which are not connected to the National Grid - which in reality means 80% of the population – will have built for them solar powered electricity stations which will each produce 1mw of electricity sufficient to supply each village with enough power for street lighting and all domestic electricity needs.

It is estimated that for Nigeria to have a proper, fully-operational electricity power output, the country needs some 50,000 mw of electricity to meet all of the domestic and industrial requirements of which Lagos State alone needs 20,00 mw. In the second week of November output reached a record high of 4,650 mw, which is an absolute appalling figure for a country so rich and in which so much has been invested in the power sector. To put this into context, that power generation is a 100% improvement on the power generated by the National Grid in January of this year.

At present the Federal Government has under construction over 120 different power projects spread throughout the country as part of its efforts to tackle the electricity generating supply in the country, the majority of which will be gas fired, which is something Nigeria has in abundance. An overview of the sector at the end of the year will show that the President has very carefully and cleverly laid the foundations for Nigeria's future electricity needs to be fully met through a series of projects.

At the end of October, in a bid to speed up the power generation and supply, the Government announced that an agreement had been signed for the development of the Ezinmo Coal Power Plant in , where a 1,000 mw new coal power plant will be built by international investors. According to the Vice President, Nigeria is capable of generating up to 30% of its electricity needs from coal resources, a mineral which it has in abundance.

All of these new power plants will come on stream within the next 2-3 years, but the major problem with electricity supply in Nigeria is not with the generating companies but with the transmission network for which a 3-year contract was signed last year between Manitoba Hydro-International of Canada for the upgrade of the entire transmission network in Nigeria, at a cost of US$23.7 million. It is very well known that the Federal Government are extremely dissatisfied with the efforts made to upgrade the transmission network in the country so far, and it is more than likely that this contract will either be re-negotiated or quite possibly cancelled and re-awarded to another international specialist transmission company.

13 There is a queue of over 50 foreign power investors to build new power plants in Nigeria who are awaiting licences, together with World Bank guarantees to support their applications. It is understood that Exxon Mobil, the US company Goemetric, Zuma Energy and the US company which is also building the US$1 billion Azura-Edo power plant have now obtained the necessary guarantees from the World Bank, which will allow them to obtain long term credit loans at low interest rates and will assist their applications to obtain licences from the Nigerian authorities.

Apart from the problems with the transmission network, Nigeria's other main problem is with gas supply. According to the Minister of Power, Nigeria's independent power plants will require 11 billion cubic feet of gas daily in order to operate at 100% capacity, but at present the are receiving less than 900 million standard cubic feet daily, all of which is supplied from the Niger Delta. As a result of this, the Government is in negotiations with 8 oil companies for an agreement to supply a total of 1.09 bscf/d of gas to the IPP’s. At the same time the Government is investigating the potential of obtaining gas from marginal offshore oil fields and inland basins, in order to boost the availability of gas in the country.

It is expected that there will be a significant increase in the financing of projects to obtain more gas from offshore oil wells in 2015, and to begin with, this will be from the Bonga Deep Water oil field, and in the Chad Basin. Basically, at present, if more gas were available, Nigeria's power generation would increase substantially overnight.

 Analysis In a year when the Minister of Petroleum Resources became the first female President of OPEC, and Nigeria's Minister of Finance was again voted “African Finance Minister of the Year”, a great deal has been achieved by President Jonathan and his administration, the benefits of which will be seen beginning in 2017 and going into 2018, by which time Nigeria will be transformed. President Jonathan has probably achieved more success in his 5+ years service than any other previous President or Head of State since Nigeria gained Independence in 1960 and it would be a great shame if he were not still in a position in order to show Nigerians that all of his hard work has been for their benefit and has come to fruition.

In an election year, and for a people not known for having great patience, and the fact that in February he faces a serious and formidable opponent, it can only be hoped that he is given the chance to finish what he has started. He above all previous Nigerian Heads of State deserves this opportunity.

 Boko Haram As we all know, with deep regret, the so-called cease-fire agreement with Boko Haram announced on 15 th October has turned out to be a hoax. The negotiations between the Nigerian Government and the so-called “special spokesman” from Boko Haram was initiated by President Deby of Chad, who claimed that Boko Haram had approached him in the first instance enquiring if the Nigerian Government would be prepared to enter into peace negotiations with the sect. As a result, negotiations commenced in early October and continued until the third week of October.

When the 219 abducted schoolgirls from Chibok were not released as promised by the Boko Haram negotiator, major doubts rose very quickly. It is not certain at the moment whether President Deby was duped by Boko Haram, or was in their pay, but one fact is known in that there has been no communication between the Nigerian Government and the Government in Chad since 23 rd October. The Nigerian Government, whilst negotiating with Boko Haram's representative in Chad, observed a cease fire, but it transpires that during that period it gave Boko Haram the opportunity to re-group, re-arm, reinforce and re-strategise before embarking on a new reign of terror beginning at the end of October. The dreaded confirmation that the cease fire was indeed a hoax came on 1 st November when Boko Haram's leader Abubakar Shekau, released yet another video through AP, the French news agency, in which he stated categorically that Boko Haram had not agreed to any cease fire, and ruled out the possibility of any such talks on the subject. In his video, he stated that all of the kidnapped schoolgirls had been converted to Islam and married off.

The first of Boko Haram's new attacks began at the end of October when they kidnapped 30 children from the village of Mafa in Borno State, and after invading the town of Kukawa, the insurgents moved on to gain control of the strategic town of Mubi, in Adamawa State. There was a major battle between the Nigerian army, who were caught unawares by the insurgents new activities, which allowed the latter to take control of the town and then spread out to attack other towns and villages in the State. By the end of the first week of November, it was realised that Boko Haram had seized control of over 20,000 sq kms territory in the North.

In fact, Boko Haram at this stage had taken complete control of 7 local government areas in Adamawa State and 9 in Borno State, which led to both State Governors appealing to the President and the Nigerian military to take strong action to curb the terrible insurgency in which hundreds of thousands of people have lost their homes, the latest estimates of which suggest that that figure is as high as 750,000 people. During the first 2 weeks of November, Boko 14 Haram not only expanded the area of land under their control but launched a series of suicide bombers, the worst of which was in the town of Potiskum, where at the local college a suicide bomber blew herself up, killing over 50 schoolchildren in her attack, which appeared to be the final straw for the Nigerian Government and Army.

On 10 th November the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshall Alex Badeh, announced the Nigerian Army and Air Force’s “Operation No Mercy”, which was to be a major offensive to defeat Boko Haram and regain all of the territory and towns lost in the last 2 months. Supported by the Nigerian Air Force and a large increased deployment of troops and equipment to the three affected States, the Nigerian Army quickly succeeded in recapturing the town of Mallam Satori, which was immediately followed by the recapturing of the town of Maih in Adamawa State in a battle where hundreds of Boko Haram insurgents were killed.

Whilst the Nigerian Army were in the process of recapturing various towns, Boko Haram continued to attack others and captured Gombi and Hong towns in Adamawa State, after they had been defeated and driven out of the town of Mubi. During the remaining part of the month a revitalised Nigerian Army, benefiting from the recent supply of new modern arms and equipment, as well as 40 new tanks, recaptured town after town driving the insurgents back towards their stronghold in Borno State. Whilst Boko Haram were fleeing and regrouping, they launched a series of suicide bombers in Maiduguri, Jos, Damatoru, the capital of Yobe State, killing hundreds of innocent civilian Nigerians in the process. In their desperate effort to flee from the Nigerian Army, they destroyed a number of villages and took their revenge on innocent villagers, using techniques, which are too horrific to describe in this report, such were the methods that they used.

The Nigerian Army is building up a major task force on the edge of the Sambisa Forest in Borno State, which is the stronghold and headquarters of the sect and where the 219 Chibok schoolgirls are being held in various camps spread throughout the Forest. The Army's successes can be directly attributed to the special training that they have received from amongst other countries the UK, the USA and more recently Russia. Additionally, Russia has supplied Nigeria with modern arms and modern technical equipment to prepare then for a major counter-offensive against Boko Haram in their stronghold. Special forces have been deployed from operations in Adamawa State to join up with troops awaiting orders to enter the Sambisa Forest, but before this takes place more troops are awaiting deployment to the area and more fighter jets are being obtained by the Nigerian Air Force to support the operation, before orders are given for it to commence.

The Adamawa State Governor, Bala Ngilari, has announced the creation of a 10,000 strong civilian Joint Task Force which has been given the responsibility of assisting the law enforcement agencies in their task of providing security to citizens in the State. They will work in conjunction with the Nigerian Army at strategic points throughout the State. The Nigerian Army stepped up its attacks against Boko Haram re-capturing all of the key towns in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States that the sect had captured in the last few months.

Boko Haram then launched their most ambitious and daring attacks against the capital of Adamawa State, Damatutu and the capital of Borno State, Maiduguri, where a series of intense fighting ensued for nearly a week before the Nigerian Army succeeded in driving the insurgents out of the capital and back towards the Sambisa Forest, and in doing so, somehow avoided the waiting Nigerian Army who were under instructions to let them enter the Forest where they could be contained. During December, Maiduguri was hit by a series of suicide bomb attacks, beginning on 1 st December, when a female blew herself up in the middle of the Monday morning market, where innocent women and children were merely going about their business, shopping for food and other items. One female suicide bomber was arrested by a group of civilians who handed her over to the civilian JTF, and under interrogation she revealed that there were 50 Boko Haram female suicide bombers in the capital city with instructions to detonate their bombs and kill 100.000 innocent people by the end of the month.

The following day, in a twin suicide bombing in Jos, the capital of , over 74 people were killed whilst they were waiting to board buses at the city's main bus terminal. Again, civilians surrounded and captured a young girl, who turned out to be only 13 years old, and having been alerted, the police searched her and in doing so, removed her hijab and discovered that she was in fact concealing a considerable number of explosive devices. It seem almost unbelievable that a 13-year old girl could be used to kill innocent people, by a group of insurgents who claim to believe in their own God, and the author can find nothing in the Koran which endorses the killing of any innocent person, whatever their beliefs.

This is the group of religious terrorists who in Kano had blown up in the middle of the main Kano mosque, 2 suicide bombers, killing over 150 worshippers who were praying to the same God that the insurgents claim to believe in and are acting on behalf of. This simply defies any rational belief or understanding of the sect.

15  STOP PRESS

APC Vice Presidential Candidate

Muhummadu Buhari's has selected Professor Yemi Osinbajo as his Vice Presidential running mate. He is 55 and is a Senior Advocate of Law at Simmons Cooper Partners and he holds degrees from the University of Lagos and the London School of Economics. He is a former Attorney General of Lagos State from 1999-2007 and is a Senior Pastor in the Redeemed Church of God. The latter playing a major part in the decision to select him. Right up until the last minute Bola Tinubu still wanted to stand as Muhummadu Buhari’s Vice Presidential candidate but the party executive were united in their opposition to an all Muslim ticket which led Bola Tinubu to throw his support behind Yemi Osinbajo thus clinching the VP slot for the latter.

With Bola Tinubu able to deliver the South West for the APC it is a mystery why Muhummadu Buhari has agreed to this because it was unanimously thought that he would seek a running mate from the South East where the APC have never won an election and Rivers State apart Muhummadu Buhari has to win other states in the zone if he is to win the election on 14th February 2015.

The Editor, who thoroughly enjoys researching and writing this Digest, would like to wish all members a very happy Christmas and a healthy and prosperous New Year when they can look forward to reading the results of the Nigerian 2015 General Elections in the next Digest, which will be published in the latter part of February 2015.

Circulated December 19, 2014

The content of this publication has been prepared by a Nigeria Correspondent for The Britain-Nigeria Educational Trust and whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the information, the Trust cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omission. It is recommended Members seek further advice before basing decisions upon the detail given in this Digest.

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