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Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for Long-Term Stability

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Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for Long-Term Stability Guinea-Bissau: Priorities for long-term stability Paulin Maurice Toupane, Aïssatou Kanté and Adja Khadidiatou Faye The legislative election slated for 10 March 2019 in Guinea-Bissau is a promising step towards political stability. But institutional reforms are needed to achieve long-term stability. To this end, dialogue is required to define priorities and create favourable conditions for reform. At the same time, Guinea-Bissau needs the backing of regional and international partners, who should frame their support in terms of a long-term vision. WEST AFRICA REPORT 22 | MARCH 2019 Key findings The March legislative election will clarify the Demands for reform transcend political political landscape and allow the formation divisions and are the strongest they have ever of a legitimate government, but it will not be been. Creating the necessary conditions for enough to guarantee Guinea-Bissau’s long- their implementation after the election must term stability. remain a priority. The crisis of 2015 was caused not only The stabilisation process will also require by leadership conflicts but also by major more coordinated involvement of regional and institutional weaknesses. Constitutional and international actors. electoral reforms must be adopted to prevent the country from falling into a new crisis after the election. Recommendations In order to minimise the risk that the election Regional and international partners should results are contested, national electoral ensure that the Stability Pact is implemented bodies should, with the support of regional after the elections by reminding political actors, and international partners, ensure the if necessary, of their commitments. smooth running of the voting process and The timing of reforms (short, medium, and the transparency of the vote count and long term) should take political and financial announcement of the results. constraints into account. Constitutional and The adoption of the Stability Pact on electoral reforms that could prevent another 14 February, which requires the implementation crisis must be prioritised. of institutional reforms, is an important step in Regional and international partners should stabilising the country. Achieving this however learn from their commitment in Guinea-Bissau will depend on the will of political actors. These and frame their support in terms of a long-term actors should prioritise the interests of the vision. country above their own. 2 GUINEA-BISSAU: PRIORITIES FOR LONG-TERM STABILITY Introduction From post-electoral optimism to political crisis In August 2015, about a year after elections that were widely viewed as credible and transparent, Guinea-Bissau The presidential and legislative elections of 2014 raised President José Mário Vaz dissolved the government of the hopes of Bissau-Guineans and the international Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira, plunging the community that the country would enter an era of country into political and institutional crisis. constitutional order. But these hopes were dashed by a new crisis that jeopardised the country’s political and Negotiations under the aegis of the Economic socio-economic prospects. Community of West African States (ECOWAS) led to the signing on 14 October 2016 of the Conakry Hope in 2014 Agreement, designed to end the political impasse and Bissau-Guinean citizens participated in the elections of lay the foundation for lasting stability through the April 2014 in record numbers,2 with the hope of turning implementation of constitutional, electoral, political, the page on the political instability and poverty that had security sector and justice reforms that had been plagued the country since independence in 1974. The debated for several decades.1 elections ended a transition that followed the coup d’état The persistence of political tensions and differences over of 12 April 2012, which had interrupted a presidential the interpretation of the Conakry Agreement, however, election held after the death of President Malam Bacai delayed its implementation and led to ECOWAS adopting Sanhá in January 2012.3 sanctions against personalities considered as blocking In the first round of that election, neither of the two the implementation of the agreement. front-runners – Carlos Gomes Júnior of the African Party It is in this context of pressure that on 14 April 2018, a for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) prime minister was appointed through consensus by and former president Kumba Yalá of the Social Renewal political actors. Since then, there has been relative calm Party (PRS) – won a majority. A runoff election between and considerable progress towards resolving the the two candidates was interrupted when a group of country’s political crisis. Both national and international military officers arrested Gomes Júnior.4 actors are now focusing their attention on the legislative election scheduled for 10 March. However, while The return to constitutional order in important, this election is not enough to guarantee long-term stability, which will depend largely on the 2014 sparked hope among locals and implementation of institutional reforms. the international community The 2015 crisis shows that recurring political problems go beyond leadership quarrels. It also results from the The subsequent transition, the country’s third since it failures of the country’s institutional architecture. It is adopted multiparty democratic rule in 1991, lasted a little therefore necessary, as part of the process, to initiate a over two years. It was characterised by precarious socio- national dialogue to create the conditions for the economic conditions, including strikes by civil servants in implementation of the structural reforms necessary for the the health and education sectors over wages and working long-term stability of the country. conditions. The government only managed to resolve the situation by paying wage arrears with the support of the This report is based on field research in Bissau and international community, notably ECOWAS. telephone interviews conducted between November 2016 and January 2019. It is organised in five parts, Politically, the transition was characterised not only by discussing the origins of the crisis, the way partisan considerable differences regarding the organisation of the tensions have weakened state institutions, the difficulties 2014 elections, but also by the emergence of new experienced in recovering from the crisis, the fragile independent and political figures, even within the main electoral process, and the importance of institutional political parties. After sustained international pressure, the reforms to Guinea-Bissau’s long-term stability. elections were held in April 2014. WEST AFRICA REPORT 22 | MARCH 2019 3 Figure 1: Key events related to post-election instability 14 7 7 16 NOVEMBER AUGUST MAY JANUARY 1980 1994 1994 2000 Military coup by João João Bernardo Vieira João Bernardo Vieira’s Kumba Yalá wins the Bernardo Vieira against wins the presidential overthrow by General presidential election President Luís Cabral election Ansumane Mané 9 26 2 24 JANUARY JULY MARCH SEPTEMBER 2012 2009 2009 2005 President Sanhá Malam Bacai Sanhá wins Assassination of President João Bernardo Vieira wins dies in Paris the presidential election João Bernardo Vieira the presidential election 12 19 20 13 APRIL APRIL MAY AUGUST 2012 2012 2014 2015 Coup by General Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo José Mário Vaz wins the Dissolution of Domingos Mamadu Turé Kuruma appointed as transitional presidential election Simões Pereira’s president government and beginning of political crisis In addition to promising a return to constitutional order, water and electricity, particularly in Bissau.6 International the election results seemed to reflect a widespread partners, including financial institutions, some of which had desire for change. The success of the PAIGC frozen cooperation with Guinea-Bissau following the 2012 candidates, José Mário Vaz as president and Domingos coup, lifted sanctions and pledged to support the country. Simões Pereira as prime minister, was based on their Against this background, the government organised a image as good managers.5 roundtable of Guinea-Bissau’s international partners on Following the elections, the Pereira-led administration 25 March 2015 in Brussels. This resulted in commitments sought to begin a new era of stability and economic of $1.27 billion to support the implementation of the development and promote national cohesion by forming a government’s 2015–2020 Strategic and Operational Plan, unity government that included all the parties present in known as Terra Ranka, which laid the foundation for the National People’s Assembly (NPA). These were the Guinea-Bissau’s economic development and political PRS, the Union for Change (União para a Mudança – stabilisation. UM), the Party for a New Democracy (PND), and the The roundtable was considered a success, but rumours Party of Democratic Convergence (PCD). This created a had begun to emerge of tension between President Vaz sense of hope among citizens and restored the and Prime Minister Pereira. On 12 April, while the confidence of the international community. government was developing a strategy for monitoring The salaries of education and health officials were paid donor commitments,8 the president dismissed the prime regularly, and there were improvements in the supply of minister and his government. 4 GUINEA-BISSAU: PRIORITIES FOR LONG-TERM STABILITY Crisis in 2015 These tensions continued
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