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ANNUAL MARKET UPDATE 2017 GLOBAL WIND REPORT Opening up New Markets for Business

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ANNUAL MARKET UPDATE 2017 GLOBAL WIND REPORT Opening up New Markets for Business ANNUAL MARKET UPDATE 2017 GLOBAL WIND REPORT Opening up new markets for business Hanoi, 7 June 2018 Buenos Aires, 6-7 September 2018 MONGOLIA WORKSHOP www.gwec.net TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE THE NEXT BIG THING …? · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 9 CHAPTER TWO GLOBAL STATUS OF WIND POWER IN 2017 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 15 CHAPTER THREE MARKET FORECAST 2018-2022 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 27 CHAPTER FOUR A SNAPSHOT OF TOP WIND MARKETS IN 2017 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 35 Argentina · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 36 Australia · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 37 Brazil · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 38 Canada · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 39 PR China · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 40 The European Union · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 42 Finland · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 46 France · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 47 Germany · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 48 India · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 49 Japan · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 50 Mexico · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 51 Netherlands · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 52 Norway · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 53 Offshore Wind · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 54 Pakistan · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 64 South Africa · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 65 Turkey · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 66 United States · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 67 Uruguay · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 68 Vietnam · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 69 About GWEC · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 70 GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 3 PREFACE was not a spectacular year in Behind the numbers, however, is the fact that 2017 terms of global installations, wind energy is now operating in more and but key developments marked the forward more markets on a purely commercial basis, progress of the energy transformation. Driven moving away from the support schemes of by the improving economics of wind power, old; and that transition has created policy as well as solar and storage, the outlines gaps in a number of markets, as governments of a future sustainable energy system are and regulators as well as the industry gets beginning to become clear. accustomed to the new reality. We expect these gaps to be felt in 2018 installation ‘Hybrid’ wind/solar/storage plants are now numbers as well, before the global market being built, able to supply clean reliable returns to growth in 2019. power 24/7 for most of the year; utilities are seriously experimenting with battery storage China, the driver of global market growth for in place of peaker plants; and EV sales are most of the last decade, installed 19.7 GW in booming in key markets. The development 2017, more than twice as much as any other of local micro-grids, some using peer to peer market, even though it represents a decrease Steve Sawyer power trading with blockchain technology, on 2016’s 23 GW. India had a record year, Secretary General GWEC and more and more sophisticated market breaking the 4 GW barrier for the fi rst time in structures for matching up supply and 2017, and although 2018 is likely to be a ‘gap’ demand at all scales are just some of the year, we can expect rapid growth starting in elements beginning to emerge. 2019. Last year at this time we reported on prices in Europe had an extraordinary year, setting new a tender in Morocco having broken through records both on and offshore. New annual the US$ 0.03/kWh barrier. This year, we note market records were set in Germany, the UK, the record low prices in Mexico’s most recent France, Belgium, Ireland and Croatia, as well tender, having broken through US$ 0.02/kWh. as in the offshore segment, which accounted How much lower can it go? Nobody knows for 3,148 MW of the European total of for sure, but costs will continue to come 16,803 MW (15,638 MW in the EU). down, albeit probably at a slower rate than in recent years. The US installed a solid 7 GW, having dodged a bullet and survived the new tax bill largely Overall, 52.5 GW of new wind power was unscathed. Canada’s numbers were down, installed across the globe in 2017, a slight but the big news was December’s auction decrease on the 2016 market of 54.6 GW, in Alberta, with prices coming in below bringing total installed capacity up to 539 GW. US$ 0.03/kWh, and we can expect more 4 GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | auctions in 2018. Mexico’s newly reformed in the technology around the globe: in the market is now ready for takeoff, and we can United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, expect more than 1,000 MW of installations India, Australia and even Brazil! this year. This is the 13th annual report on the status of Brazil installed just over 2 GW in 2017, and the global wind industry by the Global Wind it seems as if the worst of the political and Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive economic crises are behind them, with new overview of the global industry at a specifi c wind power being contracted in December’s moment in time; an industry now present auction after a nearly 2-year hiatus, and there in more than 90 countries, 30 of which are two more auctions scheduled for 2018. have more than 1,000 MW installed, and Argentina now has a solid 3 GW pipeline with 9 with more than 10,000. The information another auction coming up in the 3rd quarter contained in this report – market data, profi les of this year. and analysis, have been collected primarily through GWEC’s member associations and The Middle East and Africa was quiet, with companies around the world, as well as from Morten Dyrholm only South Africa adding capacity…but the governments and independent analysts. We Chairman good news from South Africa is that on 4 April thank all our contributors and look forward to GWEC the PPAs for the last round of tenders were continuing our collaboration in the future. fi nally signed, after a delay of more than 2 years. In the Pacifi c, the only activity was in Brussels, 25 April 2018 Australia which installed a modest 245 MW, but now has a 2.8 GW pipeline to be build out in the next few years to meet 2020 targets. Proving that offshore wind has fi nally hit its stride, 2017 marked the fi rst ‘zero-bid’ Steve Sawyer offers for offshore development rights, for more than 1 GW off Germany. This helped prompt the Dutch government to launch a ‘subsidy-free’ tender for 700 MW which was Morten Dyrholm awarded in March. While it will be some years before this is the new normal, offshore going forward is economically competitive with any and all new forms of generation, at least in Europe; and this has sparked huge interest GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 5 FOREWORD FROM OUR SPONSOR AMBITIOUS OBJECTIVES: AND WHY NOT? enewables are gaining momentum With good foresight, the current European R globally. At the same time, regulations energy strategy already included plans for and policy-driven targets of some electrical infrastructure reinforcement, governments will have a signifi cant impact on interconnections, common trading platforms the course of this global move. and diversifi cation of power supply. However, the rate of deployment of renewables Certainly, Europe wants to make headway conditioned by the approved targets is an towards a progressively decarbonised future. essential factor for fostering investments Europe is taking action, showing a strong in technology development and industrial commitment to the Paris Agreement. The value chains. This is key to maintaining the ambitious EU binding target of 35% share of competitive advantages achieved during the renewables by 2030 included in the latest past decade. revision of the EU Renewable Energy Directive still needs to be negotiated with the individual With its common origin in the yearly countries. The previous consensus in 2014 on allowance of the sun’s radiation bestowed EU Energy Strategy for 2030 set the bar at upon the earth, renewable energy fi nds Adolfo Rebollo 27% minimum. The difference is signifi cant unequal balances in different regions of Chief Executive Offi cer Ingeteam since it doubles the pace at which deployment the globe as they strive for equilibrium. should take place. Technology costs or legacies have a decisive infl uence
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