Reaping the benefits Science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture October 2009 Cover image: From an illustration of a push-pull system for pest control, courtesy of The Gatsby Charitable Foundation. The Quiet Revolution: Push-Pull Technology and the African Farmer. Gatsby Charitable Foundation 2005. Reaping the benefi ts: science and the sustainable intensifi cation of global agriculture RS Policy document 11/09 Issued: October 2009 RS1608 ISBN: 978-0-85403-784-1 © The Royal Society, 2009 Requests to reproduce all or part of this document should be submitted to: The Royal Society Science Policy 6–9 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG Tel +44 (0)20 7451 2500 Email
[email protected] Web royalsociety.org Design by Franziska Hinz, Royal Society, London Copyedited and Typeset by Techset Composition Limited Reaping the benefi ts: science and the sustainable intensifi cation of global agriculture Contents Foreword v Membership of working group vii Summary ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 An urgent challenge 1 1.2 Trends in food crop production 2 1.3 Science in context 5 1.4 The need for sustainable intensifi cation 6 1.5 Agricultural sustainability 7 1.6 Agriculture and sustainable economic development 7 1.7 Other major studies 8 1.8 Further UK work 9 1.9 About this report 9 1.10 Conduct of the study 10 2 Constraints on future food crop production 11 2.1 Climate change 11 2.2 Water 11 2.3 Temperature 12 2.4 Ozone 13 2.5 Soil factors 13 2.6 Crop nutrition 15 2.7 Pests, diseases and weed competition 16 2.8 Energy and greenhouse