STAT 3000

Sampling in History

Example 1 – Parents tell Ann Landers how they really feel

In 1975, Ann Landers asked her readers to respond to the following question: “If you had to do it over again, would you have children?” Ten thousand readers wrote in to respond – 70% said no!

In a subsequent random survey, Newsday polled 1373 parents. What proportion do you think responded negatively?

Example 2 – “Dewey Defeats Truman”

Prior to the vote, most Americans thought that the result of the 1948 presidential election was a foregone conclusion: Thomas Dewey would soundly defeat Harry Truman. What were the reasons for this mistake?

The following excerpt is from the website http://history1900s.about.com/library/weekly/aa030300a.htm:

For four terms, the Democrats had won the presidency with a "sure thing" - Franklin D. Roosevelt. They wanted another "sure thing" for the presidential election of 1948, especially since the Republicans were going to choose Thomas E. Dewey as their candidate. Dewey was relatively young, seemed well-liked, and had come very close to Roosevelt for the popular vote in the 1944 election.

And though incumbent presidents usually have a strong chance to be re-elected, many Democrats didn't think Truman could win against Dewey. Though there were serious efforts to get famed General Dwight D. Eisenhower to run, Eisenhower refused. Though many Democrats were not happy, Truman became the official Democratic candidate at the convention. The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things."

Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign.

Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.

On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands. From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"

But even with perseverance, hard work, and large crowds, the media still didn't believe Truman had a fighting chance. While President Truman was still on the road campaigning, Newsweek polled 50 key political journalists to determine which candidate they thought would win. Appearing in the October 11 issue, Newsweek stated the results: all 50 believed Dewey would win.

By election day, the polls showed that Truman had managed to cut Dewey's lead, but all media sources still believed Dewey would win by a landslide.

As the reports filtered in that night, Truman was ahead in the popular votes, but the newscasters still believed Truman didn't have a chance.

By four the next morning, Truman's success seemed undeniable. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman. The final results:

Popular States Electoral

Harry S. Truman: 24,105,812 28 303

Thomas E. Dewey: 21,970,065 16 189

Strom Thurmond: 1,169,021 4 39

Henry A. Wallace: 1,157,172 0 0