Technical Note The Contribution of African Cities to the Economy and Climate Population, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emission Dynamics
Figure 2 Lagos is projected to double its popula on to 25.1 million in 2030
Popula on (millions) 2012 2030 Lagos 11.6 25.1 Kinshasa 9.2 16.7 Luanda 5.3 9.8 Dar Ees Salaam 4.3 9.4 Johannesburg 8.1 9.4 Abidjan 4.5 7.7 Khartoum 4.8 7.3 Nairobi 3.5 6.6 Abuja 2.2 6.0 Kano 3.4 5.7
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 3 Ci es with largest popula on growth, 2012−2030
(3a) (3b)
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 4 Popula on and GDP share
Popula on split in 35 SSA countries GDP split in 35 SSA countries
16% popula on 36% GDP
69 ci es 69 ci es
Other Other areas areas
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 5 Projected GDP per capita of sub-Saharan African 10 richest ci es
2012 USD 2012 69 Ci es High income 3300 5031 2030 >US$12,746 35 Countries 1469 2448 Libreville 22746 29749 Gabon 15268 19548 Gaborone 13427 26836 Botswana 8781 15254 Johannesburg 11608 20830 South Africa 7544 13660 Pretoria 11925 20438 South Africa 7544 13660 Cape Town 10211 16013 South Africa 7544 13660 Windhoek 9774 14818 Namibia 5616 7903 Luanda 6769 14126 Angola 5657 11557 Bloemfontein 7896 13823 South Africa 7544 13660 Durban 8221 13435 South Africa 7544 13660 South Africa Port Elizabeth 7591 13128 7544 13660 New York 69556 109081 USA 49931 69737 Beijing 13675 31671 China 5999 18493 India Delhhli 3983 9916 1374 3416
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 6 Projected GDP per capita of sub-Saharan African 10 poorest ci es
2012 USD Low income 69 Ci es 3300 5031
2012 2030
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 7 GDP per capita increase, 2012−2030
(7a) (7b)
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 8 Urban emissions of 10 largest sub-Saharan African emi ers, 2012
Million tonnes of CO2 2012 2030
South Africa 178 256 Johannesburg, Durban, and 6 ci es in total Nigeria 14 31 Lagos, Ibadan, Abuja, and 16 ci es in total Angola 7 18 Luanda and Huambo 240 Accra and Kumasi Ghana 5 10 69 Ci es 386 Tanzania 4 8 Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Dodoma and Mwanza Kenya 4 7 Nairobi and Mombasa
Senegal 3 6 3D15a kar France Cameroon 2 5 231 Douala and Yaoundé Zimbabwe 4 5 Harare and Bulawayo Sudan 2 5 Khartoum 240 6699 Cci es 386 315 France 231
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 9 Average urban emissions per capita in 10 largest sub-Saharan African emi ers, 2012
Tonnes of CO2 20 16.9 16
12 8.8 World urban average: 6.18 8 tonnes of CO2 5.8
4 2.8 Sub-Sahara 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.1 1.5 urban average: 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.8 tonnes of 0 CO2 l a a n ia e la a a in a S a ia ic n o b w o n y n g U in d fr a b i b g a n e e h n A w a m a n h e B n C I ts G a b A G K e th o N m S u B Zi So
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 10 Average urban emissions, 2030 baseline scenario and 2030 green scenario
Million tonnes of CO2 2012 2030 baseline scenario 50 2030 green scenario 42.6 40
29.6 30 20.7 20
10 6.2 4.8 4.7 4.4 3.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.22 .5 2.5 2.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.0 0
a l a n a a n e a n ic ga n a l y o d i r e a d go n b w n n f n h u n e a ab a e A e G S A K G b g B th S m U u Zi So
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 11 Emissions per capita of 10 largest sub-Saharan emi ers, 2030 baseline scenario and 2030 green scenario Tonnes of CO2 2012 12 2030 baseline scenario 10.6 2030 green scenario
8.8
8
5.2
4 3.7 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.90 .9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0 l i ca a n ia in e a a a i n o b n w g n aw y fr a b i e b e a l en A w a m B a n h a K ts G a b e G M th o N m S u B Zi So
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 12 Average urban emissions reduc on poten al, 2012−2030
Benin Congo
100%
e Angola
g
a
t
n Sudan e 80%
c
r Mali
e
p
y
b Kenya
l 60% South Africa
a
n
e
t Malawi
o 40%
p
n
o
c
u 20%
d
e
R 0% 0 100 200 300 400 Reduc on poten al by accumula ve emissions, 2012−2030 Million tonnes of CO2
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 14 Key groups of ci es Projected GDP growth, Projected emissions Projected popula on Urban group 2012−2030 growth, 2012−2030 growth, 2012−2030 USD billion (2012 prices) Million tonnes of CO2 Millions Medium and large middle- 387 75 51 income ci es Middle- 99.4 income 256 52 19 megaci es Small middle- 72.3 income ci es 54 8 9
Least 15.0 developed 42 8 23 ci es
High- 7.6 income 20 2 0.4 ci es Total growth ~759 ~146 Total popula on ~103 (69 ci es) (69 ci es) Total growth ~1926 ~249 Total popula on ~439 (35 countries) (35 countries) SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 15 Figure 16 Medium and large middle-income ci es (GVA), 2012−2030 Middle-income megaci es (GVA), 2012−2030
2012 USD 2012 2012 USD 2012 2030 200 2030 200
151 150 141 150 119 131
100 97 100 82 80 82 55 48 54 50 36 44 47 50 36 37 23 31 23 3 6 12 1 3 0 0 Agriculture Industry Transport, F&BS Consumer Public services Agriculture Industry Transport, F&BS Consumer Public services Storage, Info, services Storage, Info, services Comms Comms
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
Figure 17 Figure 18 Small middle-income ci es (GVA), 2012−2030 Least developed ci es (GVA), 2012−2030
2012 USD 2012 2012 USD 2012 2030 2030 40 40
30 30 26 23 22 20 20
11 11 9 8 8 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 4 2 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 Agriculture Industry Transport, F&BS Consumer Public services Agriculture Industry Transport, F&BS Consumer Public services Storage, Info, services Storage, Info, services Comms Comms
SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es SOURCE: New Climate Economy based on data from Oxford Economics and LSE Ci es
1 List of countries: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe. The dataset covers 35 of the 55 countries in Africa, and 35 of the 47 sub-Saharan countries.
2 UN DESA, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/. 3 UN Habitat, 2014. The State of African Cities, 2014. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. Available at: http://unhabitat.org/books/state-of-african-cities-2014-re-imagining- sustainable-urban-transitions/. 4 UN DESA, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Ibid. 10 Ibid. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used for the analysis are set out in the Appendix to Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R. and Godfrey, N., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy: the Transformative Role of Global Urban Growth. New Climate Economy contributing paper. Available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report/misc/working-papers/. 11 UN DESA, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. 12 See: Oxford Economics, 2014. Global Cities 2030. Available at: www.oxfordeconomics.com/cities/report. UN DESA, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. 13 UN DESA, 2014. World Urbanization Prospects, 2014. 14 Floater et al., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy. 15 Ibid. 16 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 Ibid. 19 Ibid. 20 Although there is projected to be a significant increase in emissions up to 2030, the sheer scale of projected demographic change means that emissions per capita are not likely to rise significantly (and may even fall slightly: the analysis suggests emissions per capita could fall from 2.1 to 2 tonnes per capita). 21 Floater et al., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy. 22 See Floater et al., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy. 23 Ibid. 24 See Floater et al., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy. Analysis of emissions under this alternative pathway aimed to explore the potential impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of two key changes: more efficient urban land use (using reduced rates of physical urban expansion as an indicator), and a shift away from personal vehicle use in favour of more energy efficient forms of transport (using lower rates of fossil-fuelled car ownership as an indicator). The analysis assumes that car ownership is brought down to the level of a leading benchmark city in each world region (e.g. New York for North America), which reduces GHG emissions by 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2030. The lower-end estimate of 0.7 billion tonnes of CO2e assumes that cities lower car ownership to double the levels of benchmark cities, based on NCE staff assumptions. Urban land area is assumed to grow, at most, in proportion to population
growth; this reduces GHG emissions by another 0.1 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2030, which should be considered conservative. Further research and analysis is needed to provide more robust estimates. 25 Thus, the alternative scenario includes improvements related to motorisation and density but uses the same baseline figures for the national context as the baseline scenario. For instance, national total emissions in each scenario are simply calculated as baseline national emissions less the reduction in the scenario from changes in the metro areas. Therefore, each city’s share of national emissions would not vary if the national total emissions figure changes (but it does vary if population density and car ownership change). 26 Floater et al., 2014. Cities and the New Climate Economy. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Ibid. 30 Ibid.