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Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 2 Supporting Commercial Space Development Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 2: Support Alternatives versus NASA Commercialization Priorities November, 2010 This report, “Supporting Commercial Space Development Part 2: Support Alternatives versus NASA Commercialization Priorities” was developed with government funding under Contract Order Number NNH11CD08D awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and may be released by NASA in whole or in part. The views expressed in this report are those of Near Earth LLC and may not reflect the views of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or the United States Government. Part 2 1 of 136 Supporting Commercial Space Development "As soon as somebody demonstrates the art of flying, settlers from our species of man will not be lacking [on the Moon and Jupiter]. Who would have believed that a huge ocean could be crossed more peacefully and safely than the narrow expanse of the Adriatic, the Baltic Sea or the English Channel? Provide ship or sails adapted to the heavenly breezes, and there will be some who will not fear even that void [of space]… So, for those who will come shortly to attempt this journey, let us establish the astronomy" — Johannes Kepler, letter to Galileo Galilei 'Conversation with the Messenger from the Stars,' 19 April 1610 - CONTACT INFORMATION For parties wishing to learn more about the report described herein, additional information can be made available. Near Earth LLC 250 Park Avenue, 7th Floor New York, NY 10177 www.nearearthllc.com Hoyt Davidson John Stone Ian Fichtenbaum Managing Partner Partner Associate (203) 972-9062 (646) 290-7796 (646) 290-7794 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Part 2 2 of 136 Supporting Commercial Space Development TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................7 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................8 2.1.1 WHY GOVERNMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SPACE COMMERCIALIZATION 8 2.1.2 COMMERCIALIZATION PRIORITIES 9 2.1.3 STATE OF PRIVATE INDUSTRY & INVESTMENT 10 2.1.4 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT 12 2.1.5 SUFFICIENCY AND SUITABILITY OF STATUS QUO PROGRAMS AND INITIATIVES 13 2.1.6 WORKING GROUP SUGGESTIONS 13 2.1.7 NEW SUPPORT OPTIONS FOR NASA TO CONSIDER 13 2.2 LOW COST RELIABLE ACCESS TO SPACE (LCRATS) ............................................................... 14 2.2.1 LCRATS GOAL 14 2.2.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO LCRATS GOAL 14 2.2.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT 14 2.2.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS 15 2.2.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS 16 2.2.6 OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND CAPABILITIES 17 2.2.7 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH 18 2.3 COMMERCIAL IN-SPACE SERVICING (CISS) ......................................................................... 20 2.4 SPACE COMMERCIAL LABORATORY APPLICATIONS (SCOLA) ................................................... 23 2.4.1 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO SCOLA GOALS 23 2.4.2 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT 24 2.4.3 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS 24 2.4.4 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH 25 2.5 LUNAR / NEO COMMERCIAL SERVICES .............................................................................. 26 2.5.1 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO LUNAR/NEO GOALS 26 2.5.2 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT 26 2.5.3 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS 26 2.5.4 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS 27 2.5.5 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH 28 2.6 COMMERCIAL APPLICATION OF SPACE IN EDUCATION AND RECREATION (CASPER) ..................... 29 2.6.1 CASPER GOALS 29 2.6.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO CASPER GOALS 29 2.6.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT 30 2.6.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS 30 2.6.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS 30 Part 2 3 of 136 Supporting Commercial Space Development 2.6.6 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH 32 3 LOW COST RELIABLE ACCESS TO SPACE (LCRATS) ...................................................... 33 3.1 LCRATS GOAL ............................................................................................................ 33 3.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO LCRATS GOAL ........................ 33 3.2.1 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS AND CAPABILITIES 34 3.2.2 CURRENT AND EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND 35 3.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT .............................................................................................. 43 3.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 45 3.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS ............................................................... 50 3.5.1 NEW PAYING CUSTOMERS 50 3.5.2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR SECURING MONEY 51 3.5.3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT CAPABILITIES 53 3.5.4 OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND CAPABILITIES 53 3.5.5 PROVIDE RELIEF FROM ITAR, COMPETING NASA PROGRAMS AND PRACTICES, AND REGULATORY AND LEGAL UNCERTAINTIES 55 3.6 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH ............................................................... 56 4 COMMERCIAL IN-SPACE SERVICING (CISS) ................................................................ 60 4.1 CISS GOALS ................................................................................................................ 60 4.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO CISS GOALS ............................ 60 4.2.1 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS AND CAPABILITIES 61 4.2.2 CURRENT AND EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND 64 4.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT .............................................................................................. 68 4.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 69 4.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS ............................................................... 74 4.5.1 GEO COMMERCIAL SERVICING COMPETITION 74 4.5.2 GEO GRAVEYARD ORBIT SERVICING COMPETITION 75 4.5.3 MULTIPURPOSE SERVICING MISSION 75 4.5.4 COMMERCIAL SERVICING OPEN DEMONSTRATION 76 4.5.5 AMERICAN SATELLITE REFUELING DEMONSTRATION CONSORTIUM / PROGRAM 76 4.5.6 NASA VISION AND STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE OF SATELLITE SERVICING 79 4.5.7 REFUELING OF A NON-NASA U.S. GOVERNMENT SATELLITE 79 4.5.8 ORBITAL DEBRIS MISSION 79 4.5.9 TDRS SATELLITES AND PROPELLANT DEPOTS 80 4.6 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH ............................................................... 81 5 SPACE COMMERCIAL LABORATORY APPLICATIONS (SCOLA) ...................................... 84 Part 2 4 of 136 Supporting Commercial Space Development 5.1 SCOLA’S GOALS .......................................................................................................... 84 5.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO SCOLA GOALS ......................... 84 5.2.1 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS AND CAPABILITIES 86 5.2.2 CURRENT AND EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND 87 5.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT .............................................................................................. 88 5.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 90 5.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS ............................................................... 93 5.5.1 ORGANIZATION 93 5.5.2 DEMONSTRATIONS 95 5.5.3 INNOVATORS 96 5.5.4 LOGISTICS GAPS 97 5.5.5 OTHER BARRIERS 99 5.5.6 LEGISLATIVE ENABLERS 100 5.6 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH ............................................................. 102 6 LUNAR AND NEO COMMERCIAL SERVICES .............................................................. 104 6.1 LUNAR/NEO GOALS ................................................................................................... 104 6.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO LUNAR/NEO GOALS ............... 105 6.2.1 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS AND CAPABILITIES 105 6.2.2 CURRENT AND EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND 106 6.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT ............................................................................................ 107 6.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 108 6.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS ............................................................. 112 6.5.1 DEFINING NASA’S STRATEGY RELATIVE TO EMERGING COMMERCIAL SERVICE MARKETS 112 6.5.2 REPLICATE THE ILDD BAA PROCESS IN OTHER HIGH PRIORITY AREAS FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT / DEMONSTRATION 112 6.5.3 DO MORE FLIGHT DEMONSTRATIONS 113 6.5.4 PRE-PURCHASE AGREEMENTS 114 6.5.5 LEGISLATIVE LANGUAGE 115 6.6 ADDITIONAL OPTIONS PROPOSED BY NEAR EARTH ............................................................. 116 7 COMMERCIAL APPLICATION OF SPACE IN EDUCATION AND RECREATION (CASPER) . 118 7.1 CASPER’S GOALS ...................................................................................................... 118 7.2 CURRENT STATE OF COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY RELATIVE TO CASPER GOALS ..................... 118 7.2.1 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS AND CAPABILITIES 118 7.2.2 CURRENT AND EXPECTED MARKET DEMAND 119 7.3 BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT ............................................................................................ 121 7.4 STATUS QUO ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 122 7.5 EVALUATION OF WORKING GROUP CONCLUSIONS ............................................................
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