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THE SEASON SUMMARY – 2010

SPECIAL FOCUS ON AND

Radar Image: 2315 UTC, August 29, 2010

Barbuda Antigua

Courtesy Meteo France

Dale C. S. Destin Meteorological Service May 31, 2011 1

The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary – 2010 Special Focus on Antigua and Barbuda

Dale C. S. Destin Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service May 31, 2011

The Season in Brief

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season produced nine (19) named storms. Of the nineteen (19) storms, twelve (12) became hurricanes and five (5) strengthened to achieve major hurricane status (category three (3) or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The strongest for the season was with peak winds of 155 mph, category 4. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, the rest of the and the British , six (6) tropical cyclones entered the defined monitored area (10N 40W – 10N 55W – 15N 70W – 20N 70W – 20N 55W – 15N 40W – 10N 40W). These were Collin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Igor, and Tomas. By the national definition, Hurricane Earl hit Antigua and Barbuda and Fiona hit Barbuda and brushed Antigua.

This season was well above normal (extremely active) with respect to named storms and hurricanes, and above normal with respect to major hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. This season tied with the 1969 seasons for the second most hurricanes and with the 1995 and 1887 seasons for the third most named storms. Also, this was the most active season since 2005. In terms of the ACE index, which measures the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes, the season was solidly above normal. It had an index of 166, 183% of the median (90.5) or 164% of average (101.2); the 11th highest on record (1944 – 2010) and the highest by far since 2005. Overall, tropical cyclone activity caused about 11.2 billion US dollars in damage. For Antigua and Barbuda, Hurricane Earl cost little over US$12.5 million dollars in damage and loss of revenue. See table 1 and map 1 for all of the 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.

The season started out quite slowly contrary to the forecasts. It was such a slow start that Phillip Klutzbach, who is the lead forecaster of the CSU Forecast of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, admitted, in conversation with me at the VII International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone, that he became a bit nervous when after the middle of August there were only three (3) named storms. However, one could say “all hell broke loose” on August 21 with the formation of Danielle, which was followed by 10 other named storms in the following 38 days. Of the 11 named storms, there was a record number of eight (8) that formed in September, tying with the 2002 and 2007 season. Additionally, Igor and Julia were simultaneously category 4 hurricanes, a very rare occurrence which has not happened since 1926.

The well above normal season was due mainly to record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, especially in the Tropical North Atlantic and the development of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. All the forecasts for the season, which came out after March were excellent in

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projecting the number of named storms and major hurricanes. With respect to the number of hurricanes, the forecasts had mixed success (see table 2). An average season has 11 named storms and six (6) hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes (1950 – 2009).

Tropical Cyclone in the Monitored Area

Tropical Storm Colin (August 2 - 8, 2010)

Tropical Storm Colin did not strike or hit any of the islands, i.e. it did not come within 125 statute miles of the area. It dissipated several hundred miles east of Antigua and Barbuda. However, as an open it produced rainfall across the islands; 7.9 mm or 0.31 inch was measured at the airport.

Tropical Storm Colin formed on August 2, starting out as a tropical depression, which then became a storm on August 3. This intensification of Colin was short-lived as hostile environmental conditions along with a very rapid forward speed caused degeneration into an open trough by 2 P. M. on August 3. The system eventually regenerated to a storm on August 5, over 400 miles northwest of Antigua and Barbuda. Colin eventually dissipated about 60 mi northwest of on August 8.

Tropical Hurricane Danielle (August 21 - 30, 2010)

Hurricane Danielle passed a safe distance of over 600 miles northeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of Leeward Islands and the on August 3. Notwithstanding the distance, a trough associated with the hurricane produced rainfall across the islands with 10.2 mm or 0.40 inch measured at the airport.

Danielle formed out of an area of low pressure which moved off the west coast of Africa on August 19. Moving through favorable conditions, it developed into Tropical Depression Six near the Islands on August 21. The system attained tropical storm status on August 22. The next day it attained hurricane status, becoming the second of the season. Over the next few days, the system’s strength varied between storm and category 2 hurricane. On August 27, Danielle strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane, becoming the first major hurricane of the season, and further strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane shortly after. The hurricane did not make anywhere. Danielle eventually lost its tropical characteristics and became extratropical late on August 30 southeast of without having directly impacted land. It was fully absorbed by a larger extratropical low on September 3 south of Iceland.

Major Hurricane Earl (August 25 – September 4, 2010)

Earl affected Antigua and Barbuda on August 29 and 30 with storm force winds of 52 mph gusting 64 mph experienced at the airport on August 30. At its closest point, the centre of the hurricane was about 28 miles north of Barbuda at about 2 am August 30 and about 55 miles north-northeast of Antigua at about midnight August 29. The system produced all together 198.3 mm or 7.81 inches of rainfall at the V. C. Bird International Airport. Some of this rainfall

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resulted in moderate flooding. The system also affected the rest of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

Earl developed from an area of disturbed weather, which came off the African west coast on August 22. The system became a depression on August 25. Later on August 25, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and a hurricane on August 29, the third for the season. The upgrade to a hurricane took place about 211 miles east of Antigua. Earl then strengthened further to a category 2 hurricane near Antigua and Barbuda, category 3 hurricane near and a category 4 hurricane just after passing the British Virgin Islands. Earl was the second major hurricane for the season. After passing the Northeast , the system tracked toward the northwest then turning north passing within 100 miles of , on September 2 as a category 2 hurricane. It then skirted the rest of the US east coast north of Cape Hatteras until it made landfall in on September 4, as a strong storm. The system became extratropical on September 5. It was estimated that throughout the Caribbean, Hurricane Earl wrought up to US$150 million in damage. Two deaths were directly attributable to the storm, one in Nova Scotia, one in the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Fiona (August 30 – September 3, 2010)

Fiona affected Antigua and Barbuda, on September 1. At, its closest point, the centre of the storm was 65 miles northeast of Barbuda and 80 miles northeast of Antigua on the morning of September 1. Hence, by national definition, the system hit Barbuda and brushed Antigua; although, minimal storm force winds were likely experienced across Barbuda, it is not possible to say for sure since there were no working instruments on the island. For Antigua, only 15 mph winds were measured at the airport in Antigua; the maximum gust was 21 mph. Instability associated with the system produced 6.5 mm at the airport.

Fiona came closely on the heels of Hurricane Earl. Just as the country was saying good riddance to Hurricane Earl, Fiona was there. Interestingly, this system came off the coast of Africa during the same week as Earl. It struggled to develop until August 30, when it became better organized a few hundred miles east of the and became Tropical Storm Fiona; the depression stage was missed. Having developed, it struggled in the high from the of the much larger and stronger Earl. Notwithstanding this, the system got to a maximum strength of 65 mph, then weakening slowly into an open wave just south of Bermuda on September 4.

Hurricane Igor (EEgor) (September 8 – 21, 2010)

Igor entered the monitored area; however, it passed a safe distance away from the islands, about 390 miles northeast of Antigua.

Igor formed from a large and strong area of low pressure area associated with a broad tropical disturbance, which came off Western Africa on September 6. It then became a tropical depression and a tropical storm on September 8, the ninth of the season. After struggling through significant shear to the point of weakening to a depression on September 9, it regained tropical storm status on September 10. The system strengthened to a hurricane on September 11. Rapid strengthening took place on September 12 and the Igor became a category 4 hurricane. It is 4

possible that Igor may have briefly strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane early on September 15. On September 19, a weakened Igor, battered Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane. During the day on September 21, eastern regions of Newfoundland experienced tropical storm and hurricane force winds. Igor became extratropical east of Newfoundland on September 21. Hurricane Igor's extratropical remnants were completely absorbed by a larger extratropical storm in Baffin on September 26, and the extratropical storm moved into the glacier at Southern Davis Bay, and eventually crossed the Atlantic Ocean to impact Europe. Igor took the life of one person in Newfoundland.

Hurricane Otto (October 6 – 10)

Hurricane Otto formed in the Southwest Atlantic and stayed well away from the area. The system never entered the monitored area. However, Otto caused a lot of moisture to move across the Northeast Caribbean resulting in heavy showers and , which caused flooding across Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the Northeast Caribbean during the first week of October. At the airport, 182.2 mm was recorded with October 3 having 62.7 mm. Ordinarily this system would not have been mentioned here; however, it could not be ignored due to its significant rainfall impact.

Hurricane Tomas (October 29 – November 7, 2010)

Although passed over 180 miles south of Antigua, because of its size, the system caused storm force gusts across Antigua and Barbuda and nearby Southern Leeward Islands. At the airport, a maximum gust of 47 mph was recorded and the maximum one minute wind speed was 37 mph. It is believed that some areas, mainly on the southern side of Antigua had sustained storm force winds on the night of October 30, when from 9 pm to 12 midnight there were frequent storm force gusts. Tomas also caused notable rainfall across Antigua and Barbuda with 70.8 mm measured at the airport between October 26 and November 1. The rainfall of October 30, 44.1 mm caused minor flooding.

The system started out as a , which came off the African Coast on October 25. It then got embedded within the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and move rather quickly westward. After travelling the Atlantic, the system rapidly developed, starting to become organized on October 28. Clearly the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) was late to initiate advisories on this system, as confirmed in a personal conversation with Chris Landsea of the NHC. By the time the Hurricane Hunter reached the system on October 29, it was already a tropical storm. In less than 24 hours, it was upgraded to a hurricane, and by Sunday, October 31, it was a category two hurricane, less than two days from the time it was declared a storm. Tomas severely affected St. Lucia and significantly impacted and other nearby . The hurricane caused US$572 million in damages and killed 41 people, of which 14 were in St. Lucia. Tomas also affected , , , , and the before becoming extratropical on November 7.

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THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SUMMARY - 2010

Max Wind Antigua/Barbuda Damage Name Date Deaths (mph) - US$Million 1. H ALEX Jun 25 – Jul 2 105 52 0 2. TD TWO Jul 7 – 8 35 1 0 3. TS BONNIE Jul 22 – 24 40 1 0 4. TS COLIN Aug 2 – 8 60 1 Minimal 5. TD FIVE AUG 10 – 11 35 2 0 6. MH DANIELLE Aug 21 – 31 135 2 Minimal 7. MH EARL AUG 25 – SEP 5 145 6 12.5 8. TS FIONA AUG 30 – SEP 3 65 0 Minimal 9. TS GASTON SEP 1 – 2 40 0 Minimal 10. TS HERMINE SEP 5 – 9 70 8 0 11. MH IGOR SEP 8 – 21 155 4 Minimal 12. MH JULIA SEP 12 – 20 135 0 0 13. MH KARL Sep 14 – 18 120 22 0 14. H LISA Sep 20 – 26 85 0 0 15. TS MATTHEW Sep 23 – 26 60 126 0 16. TS NICOLE SEP 28 – 29 40 13 0 17. H OTTO Oct 6 – 10 85 0 Minimal 18. H PAULA OCT 11 – 15 100 1 0 19. H RICHARD OCT 21 – 26 90 2 0 20. H SHARY OCT 29 – 30 75 0 0 21. H TOMAS OCT 29 – NOV 7 100 41 Minimal Table 1: The Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary - 2010. Totals: 21 Tropical Cyclones, 19 Named Storms, 12 Hurricanes & 5 Major Hurricanes. The season caused about 282 deaths and at least 11.299 billion US dollars in damage. (Sources – NOAA, Wikipedia.com and ABMS). On March 16, 2011, at the 33rd Session of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association Hurricane Committee, the WMO retired two names, Igor and Tomas, from its rotating name lists. They will be replaced with Ian and Tobias, respectively, for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Forecast Tropical Major Forecast Source Date Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Aug 5, 2010 14 – 20 8 – 12 4 – 6 NOAA May 27, 2010 14 – 23 8 – 14 3 – 7 Aug 4, 2010 18 10 5 Jun 2, 2010 18 10 5 CSU Apr 7, 2010 15 8 4 Dec 7, 2009 11 – 16 6 – 8 3 – 5 Aug 4, 2010 18 10 5 Jul 6, 2010 19 10 5 TSR Jun 4, 2009 11 5 – 6 2 – 3 May 25, 2010 16 8 4 Apr 9, 2010 16 – 17 8 – 9 4 MOHC (range) Jun 17, 2010 20 (13 – 27) - - 60-yr Antigua Climatology1 1950 - 2009 0.6 0.4 0.2 60-yr Atlantic Climatology 1950 - 2009 10.8 6.2 2.7 30-yr Atlantic Climatology 1980 - 2009 11.8 6.3 2.6

Observed Cyclones 2010 19 12 5 Table 2: Comparison of 2010 Hurricane Season Forecasts. 1Storms passing within 105 nautical miles of Antigua. Forecasts include those issued by Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre (MOHC). The MOHC forecast is issued for the July– November period.

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Map: 1 Storm Tracks – 2010 (Picture Courtesy NOAA).

References

National Hurricane Centre, Maimi, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season [online]. Available from: [Accessed 20 April 2011].

Tropical Storm Risk, London, Summary of 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and Verification of Authors' Seasonal Forecasts [online]. Available from: Accessed 9 May 2011]

Wikipedia [online] Available from: [Accessed 24 Feb 2011]

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