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Social Resilience BOOK.Indb 1 7/19/2012 5:09:27 PM Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute The International Symposium on Societal Resilience on Societal Symposium International The The International Symposium on Societal Resilience Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Societal Resilience November 30–December 2, 2010 Fairfax, Virginia A Publication of 2900 South Quincy St., Suite 800 The Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute Arlington, Virginia 22206 in Collaboration with www.homelandsecurity.org The U.S. Army War College Center for Strategic Leadership and Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies Front Cover (left to right): Assistant Secretary, Infrastructure Protection, Mr. Todd Keil; Deputy Administrator, Protection and National Preparedness, Mr. Timothy Manning; Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Major General (Retired) Matan Vilnai; President and Chief Executive Officer, Analytic Services Inc., Dr. Ruth David; Senior Director for Preparedness Policy, Resilience Directorate, National Security Staff, The White House, Mr. Brian Kamoie. Note: Appointments are shown at the time of the symposium. The International Symposium on Societal Resilience Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Societal Resilience November 30–December 2, 2010 Fairfax, Virginia A Publication of The Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute in Collaboration with The U.S. Army War College Center for Strategic Leadership and Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies Social Resilience BOOK.indb 1 7/19/2012 5:09:27 PM Homeland Security StudieS and analySiS inStitute The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of PL 107-296, as codified in 6 U.S.C. 185), herein referred to as the “Act,” authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Tech- nology, to establish one or more federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. Analytic Ser- vices Inc. operates the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute as an FFRDC for DHS under contract HSHQDC-09-D-00003. The Institute provides the government with the necessary expertise to conduct: cross- cutting mission analysis, strategic studies and assessments, development of models that baseline current capabilities, development of simulations and technical evaluations to evaluate mission trade-offs, creation and evolution of high-level operational and system concepts, development of top-level system and operational requirements and performance metrics, operational analysis across the homeland security enterprise, and analytic support for operational testing evaluation in tandem with the government’s acquisition process. The Institute also works with and supports other federal, state, lo- cal, tribal, public and private sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The Institute’s research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis con- ducted under Task 11-01.02.05, International Symposium on Societal Resilience, 2011 The purpose of the task is to publish the proceedings from the International Symposium on Societal Resilience, conducted in Fairfax, Virginia over the period November 30 to December 2, 2010. The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opinion or policy. Social Resilience BOOK.indb 2 7/19/2012 5:09:27 PM Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Societal Resilience Edited by Alex B. McLellan and Meir Elran Social Resilience BOOK.indb 3 7/19/2012 5:09:27 PM Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute The Institute was envisaged by the National Research Council of the National Academies in its report, Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism, which proposed the creation of a dedicated, not-for-profit institute to provide the federal government with analytic capabili- ties to support effective counterterrorism-related decision making and program execution. The Homeland Security Act of 2002 called for the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and directed the new Secretary to “establish a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) to be known as the ‘Homeland Security Institute.’” The Institute became operational in 2004 and by law was terminated in 2009. In 2009 Analytic Services Inc. was awarded a contract to operate a new FFRDC, the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute. Since its inception, the Institute has completed more than 650 studies and provided support to virtually every major staff function and component within DHS. The Institute also supports the homeland secu- rity needs of other organizations such as the Departments of Defense, Education, Interior, Health and Human Services, and Justice; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; the National Archives; and the Smithsonian Institution. THE INSTITUTE TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUES. ALL STATE- MENTS OF FACT AND EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHOR OR AUTHORS. Copyright © 2012 by Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute All rights reserved. Published in the United States by the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute An operating unit of Analytic Services Inc. Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute, Washington, D.C. Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute and colophon are registered trademarks of The United States Department of Homeland Security ISBN 978-0-9853-2480-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2012904936 McLellan, Alex B. The proceedings of the First International Symposium on Societal Resilience I Edited by Alex McLellan. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-9853-2480-3 l. Societal Resilience. 2. Community resilience. 3. Organizational resilience Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper www.homelandsecurity.org First Edition Book design by Cynthia Nordean Social Resilience BOOK.indb 4 7/19/2012 5:09:28 PM Acknowledgements A great many people and organizations deserve recognition for assist- ing with this publication. We are especially grateful to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Director- ate, and the leadership of the Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute, for their vision and funding support of the 2010 Interna- tional Symposium on Societal Resilience and this publication. This effort was truly a collaborative one and could not have been accomplished without the help of Brigadier General (retired) Meir Elran from Tel Aviv University and Professor Bert Tussing from the Army War College. Meir Elran has been an integral partner since the beginning of this process. His knowledge of the subject and his encouragement have been unwavering, leading to the success of the proceedings. Bert Tussing provided invaluable guidance, and his work may have led to the genesis of this effort. We would also like to thank the distinguished researchers highlighted in this publica- tion for their exceptional work in advancing the field of societal and community resilience. I would also like to thank the following individuals who helped make the 2010 International Symposium on Societal Resilience a success and provided valuable reviews and comments to this publication: Sarah Maloney, Robbi Dickens, Audrey Mazurek, Kim Corthell, Curt Mann, Matthew Sinn, Justin George, and Eric Ambinder. i Social Resilience BOOK.indb 1 7/19/2012 5:09:28 PM Robbi Dickens and Audrey Mazurek were truly unstoppable and the real movers behind the symposium operation, anticipating every pos- sible need before it became a problem. Katie Kingsman became the go to person when we began the long process of assembling the papers and putting this book together. This would not have been as successful an endeavor without her great and untiring work. I especially want to thank Sarah Maloney, Bob Tuohy, and Phil An- derson for their leadership in allowing me the opportunity to estab- lish all the national and international connections and support to create this first international symposium on societal resilience. Finally, the planning committee for the 2010 International Sympo- sium on Societal Resilience showed overwhelming diligence through the entire process. The committee comprised of Brigadier General (retired) Meir Elran, Alex McLellan, Bert Tussing, Robbi Dickens, Audrey Mazurek, and Katie Kingsman. Alex B. MclellAn Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall. – Confucius (551– 479 BC) ii Social Resilience BOOK.indb 2 7/19/2012 5:09:28 PM Contents InternAtIonAl SyMpoSIuM on SocIetAl reSIlIence Acknowledgements ............................................................................... i Foreword .............................................................................................v Alex B. McLellan International Perspectives on Resilience ............................................... 1 Professor Bert Tussing pArt 1 the phIloSophy of reSIlIence ..............................................................11 Brigadier General Meir Elran (Ret.) Is the Blame Game Making Us Less Resilient? A Reexamination of Blame Allocation in Systems with High Uncertainty .........................19 Dr. P.H. Longstaff Measuring Societal Resilience ............................................................ 47 Brigadier General Meir Elran (Ret.) Multiple Dimensions of Resilience: Directions
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