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NOTES and CORRESPONDENCE Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution of the Simulated Intensifying Rate and Inner-Core Structure of Typhoon Ida, an Extremely Intense Typhoon

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NOTES and CORRESPONDENCE Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution of the Simulated Intensifying Rate and Inner-Core Structure of Typhoon Ida, an Extremely Intense Typhoon JanuaryJournal of2016 the Meteorological Society of JapanS., Vol. KANADA 94A, pp. and 181−190, A. WADA 2016 181 DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2015-037 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Sensitivity to Horizontal Resolution of the Simulated Intensifying Rate and Inner-Core Structure of Typhoon Ida, an Extremely Intense Typhoon Sachie KANADA Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan and Akiyoshi WADA Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan (Manuscript received 13 November 2014, in final form 16 June 2015) Abstract The model-resolution sensitivity of simulated intensifying and deepening rates of an extremely intense trop- ical cyclone (TC), Typhoon Ida (1958), was investigated using the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute nonhydrostatic atmospheric model with horizontal resolutions of 20, 10, 5, and 2 km. The results revealed great differences in the intensifying and deepening rates and their associated structural changes among simulations. The typhoon simulated by a finer horizontal resolution resulted in a greater maximum intensity associated with more rapid intensification. The differences were also revealed in the hourly precipitation pattern, the radius of maximum wind speed at 2-km altitude (RMW) and its shrinking behavior, near-surface inflow, and the axisymmetrization of the inner core. Only the cloud-resolving 2-km model, with explicit microphysics, could reproduce the observed maximum intensity and extreme intensification rate of the typhoon realistically because the model could produce the deep, intense, and upright updrafts inside RMW around the vorticity-rich area over the strong near-surface inflow. The results suggest that the appropriate horizontal resolution of the model should be used in dynamical downscaling experiments to examine extremely intense TCs with extremely high intensifying rates. Keywords typhoon; typhoon intensity; numerical simulation; nonhydrostatic model western Pacific oceans (e.g., Hurricane Katrina and 1. Introduction Hurricane Wilma in 2005; Typhoon Haiyan in 2013; A considerable number of category 4 and 5 trop- Typhoon Vongfong in 2014). According to Kaplan ical cyclones (TCs), on the Saffir–Simpson Hurri- and DeMaria (2003), most such high-intensity TCs cane Scale (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws. are characterized by rapid intensification (RI). Thus, php), occur in both the North Atlantic and the North- more accurately predicting intensity changes of TCs, particularly RI, is a key factor for accurate TC inten- Corresponding author: Sachie Kanada, Hydrospheric sity forecasts and projections. Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan Although some recent studies have indicated that E-mail: [email protected] environmental parameters are skillful predictors of ©2015, Meteorological Society of Japan Atlantic TCs (e.g., Kaplan et al. 2010), other studies 182 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 94A have suggested that the intensifying rate of a TC is zontal resolution with each of the following: 20 km only weakly dependent on environmental conditions (NHM20), 10 km (NHM10), 5 km (NHM5), and 2 (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2010). Furthermore, many km. The NHM20, NHM10, and NHM5 simulations observational and numerical studies have shown that used spectral nudging (SN; Nakano et al. 2012), the RI processes are closely related to the inner-core Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme (KF; structure and convective activity of TC (e.g., Kieper Kain and Fritsch 1993), and the Level 3 Mellor– and Jiang 2012; Rogers et al. 2013; Wang and Wang Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino closure turbulence scheme 2014). The phenomena that have been proposed (Nakanishi and Niino 2004). In this study, moreover, to link convection with RI include vortical hot a 5-km-mesh atmospheric nonhydrostatic model with towers (Montgomery et al. 2006), convective asym- explicit microphysics and without the KF scheme metry (Braun et al. 2006), axisymmetrization of the (NoKF5) was used to study the impact of the cumulus inner-core triggered by deep convection (Guimond parameterization scheme. The SN method developed et al. 2010), and an upper-level warm core (Chen and for the downscaling experiments (Nakano et al., 2012) Zhang 2013). was applied above a height of 7 km for large-scale Simulations of convection associated with TCs wave components (wavelength > 1000 km) to reduce are strongly influenced by the horizontal resolution the track error of typhoons. Using NHM5, Nakano of the model used. Previous studies have suggested et al. (2012) conducted the sensitivity experiments that an atmospheric model with a horizontal reso- for 17 typhoons and showed that the central pressure lution of a few kilometers is necessary to reproduce (CP) of typhoons using the SN method was almost the inner-core structure and associated convection of comparable to that of those without using the SN TC (e.g., Braun and Tao 2000; Gentry and Lackmann method. The Louis scheme was used as the surface 2010). In addition, the downscaling experiments using boundary layer scheme (Louis et al. 1982), with a a 2-km-mesh atmospheric nonhydrostatic model surface–roughness–length formulation based on (NHM2) for the six most intense TCs in the climate Kondo (1975). The computational domain was 5400 run by a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circula- km × 4600 km (Fig. 1). The number of vertical levels tion model (AGCM20) showed significant differ- was set to 55 (the top height was approximately 27 ences in the intensifying rate and the locations of the km). NHM20, NHM10, and NHM5 used a time step minimum central pressure (MCP) for simulated TCs of 40, 30, and 15 s, respectively. Other fundamental in AGCM20 and NHM2 (Kanada et al. 2013). These configurations were the same as those used by Kanada results raise the following question: How does the et al. (2012, 2013). Initial and lateral atmospheric horizontal resolution of a simulation affect the inten- boundary conditions (horizontal resolution, 1.25°) sity and intensifying rate of a simulated extremely and initial sea surface temperature (SST) conditions intense TC? (horizontal resolution, 0.56°) were provided every 6 In this study, we investigated the impact of model h from the JMA 55-year Reanalysis dataset (hereafter, resolution on not only TC intensity but also the JRA-55). Wind-profile retrieval data surrounding TCs TC intensifying rate by carrying out simulations of were assimilated in JRA-55 with the same prescribed Typhoon Ida (1958), one of the most intense typhoons observational errors as those used for TC bogus data with the greatest rapid deepening recorded since 1951. in JMA’s operational system. (See Ebita et al. 2011 for We paid special attention to differences in the convec- a detailed description). tive activity and inner-core structure among TCs In NHM2 simulations, initial and lateral boundary simulated at horizontal resolutions of 20, 10, 5, and conditions were provided every 6 h by the NHM5 2 km to improve the knowledge for the downscaling simulation. NHM2 applied the Deardorff–Black- experiments of an intense TC in both TC forecasts and adar scheme (Deardorff 1980; Blackadar 1962) and projections. bulk-type cloud microphysics with an ice phase that included ice, snow, and graupel (Murakami 1990) 2. Model and methods but did not apply the SN method or the cumulus 2.1 Model and experimental design parameterization scheme. The computational domain We used a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model of NHM2 was 3980 km × 2380 km (Fig. 1), and based on the Japan Meteorological Association the time step was 8 s. Otherwise, the configura- (JMA) operational non-hydrostatic mesoscale tion of NHM2 was the same as that of NHM20, model (JMANHM; Saito et al. 2007) and conducted NHM10, and NHM5. Numerical simulations with four sensitivity experiments using a different hori- NHM20, NHM10, and NHM5 nested in JRA55 were January 2016 S. KANADA and A. WADA 183 150˚ 160˚ 170˚ PreERI ERI 110˚ 120˚ 130˚ 140˚ a) 40˚ 30˚ 26 25 20˚ 24 23 21 10˚ 22 150 160˚ ˚ 120˚ 130˚ 140˚ Fig. 1. L(a) Map of the simulation domain used for the NHM20, NHM10, and NHM5 simulations, with the NHM2 simulation domain shown by the red rectangle. The circles show the tracks at 6-h intervals, and the stars show the location where the minimum central pressure (MCP) was reached, in the NHM20 (purple), NHM10 (green), NHM5 (blue), and NHM2 (red) simulations. The black symbols show the best-track data and MCP location of Typhoon Ida, and the numbers indicate the day of the month in September 1958. Temporal variations of (b) central pressure (CP; hPa), (c) the CP drop rate (dCP; hPa 6 h–1), (d) maximum wind speed (MWS; m s–1), and (e) MWS radius (RMW; km) at an altitude of 2 km in the NHM20 (purple), NHM10 (green), NHM5 (blue), and NHM2 (red) simulations. Best-track (black circles) and JRA-55 (open circles) data are also shown in panels (b) and (c). RI, rapid intensification; ERI, extremely rapid intensification. performed starting at 0000 UTC on September 21, maximum azimuthally mean Vt at an altitude of 2 km 1958. Then, using the NHM5 results, NHM2 numer- (hereafter, RMW): r* = r/RMW, where the normal- ical simulation was conducted from 0000 UTC on ized radius r* = 1 indicates the location of RMW. September 22, 1958. 3. Results 2.2 Analytical methods 3.1 General characteristics The storm center was determined as the approx- First, we give a brief overview of Ida. On imate geometric center (centroid) of the sea-level September 20, 1958, a tropical depression formed pressure (SLP) field in each of the NHM20, NHM10, from an easterly wave around the Marshall Islands, NHM5, and NHM2 simulations, based on the meth- and it received the name Ida at 1800 UTC (Fig. 1). odology of Braun (2002). Radial and tangential wind The storm moved westward while maintaining CP of speeds (hereafter, Vr and Vt, respectively) relative 985 hPa (Fig.
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