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Market Insight Florida Multifamily Report | Third Quarter 2018

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Market Insight Florida Multifamily Report | Third Quarter 2018 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP MARKET INSIGHT FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY REPORT | THIRD QUARTER 2018 The Cushman & Wakefield Florida Multifamily Research Team provides in-depth coverage of primary, secondary, and tertiary cities across the state. In addition to analyzing multifamily rent and sales trends, these reports examine employment data, job growth trends, key economic announcements, and development pipeline news. IN THIS EDITION ► Miami ► Fort Lauderdale ► West Palm Beach ► Orlando ► Tampa ► Jacksonville SELECTION OF RECENT TEAM TRANSACTIONS FLORIDA TEAM LEADERS TEAM LEADER ROBERT GIVEN, VICE CHAIRMAN +1 954 377 0513 | [email protected] SOUTH FLORIDA ZACHARY SACKLEY, EXEC. MANAGING DIRECTOR +1 954 377 0515 | [email protected] TROY BALLARD, SENIOR DIRECTOR +1 954 377 0514 | [email protected] CALUM WEAVER, EXEC. MANAGING DIR. (PCG) +1 954 377 0517 | [email protected] LUZANO THE PLACE AT DANIA BEACH 33 WEST Pompano Beach, FL Dania Beach, FL Davie, FL ERROL BLUMER, ASSOCIATE (LAND) +1 954 377 0499 | [email protected] 404 units / Built 2017 144 units / Built 2017 376 units / Built 2014 NEAL VICTOR, DIRECTOR +1 954 377 0518 | [email protected] ORLANDO JAY BALLARD, SENIOR DIRECTOR +1 407 541 4406 | [email protected] KEN DELVILLAR, SENIOR DIRECTOR +1 407 541 4441 | [email protected] TAMPA LUIS ELORZA, SENIOR DIRECTOR +1 813 204 5319 | [email protected] BRAD CAPAS, SENIOR DIRECTOR +1 813 204 5316 | [email protected] VISTA VERDE CANOPY VILLAS MOSIAC AT THE FORUM Miami, FL Orlando, FL Fort Myers, FL JACKSONVILLE 302 units / Built 1993 296 units / Built 1981 252 units / Built 2017 JULIE BOHN, DIRECTOR +1 904 859 2911 | [email protected] Next Page MARKET INSIGHT Third Quarter 2018 MIAMI 1 MIAMI, FL ECONOMIC EXPANSION The following are select job announcements from the third quarter 2018: EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS Popeyes, the fast food chain, has plans to move their headquarters to Miami from Atlanta. Restaurants International, who bought The Miami Metro Division has contracted by approximately 5,000 jobs year a Popeyes in 2017 for $1.8 billion, has leased a 150,000-square-foot over year as of the third quarter 2018 due to a tightening job market. The building in Waterford to combine Popeyes’s operations with its metro’s unemployment rate has lowered over the last year to a rate of 3.6%. sister brands Burger King and U.S. Tim Hortons. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities continue be the largest industry sectors as approximately one quarter of the metro’s jobs are accounted for within Amazon’s new 885,000-square-foot fulfillment center in Opa- these three sectors. In the South Florida region, Miami is the international locka is nearing completion. According to the South Florida center for finance, trade, and tourism. PortMiami was ranked as the busiest a Business Journal, the average hourly wage is over $15 an hour. cruise port in the world. Per CoStar, moving forward, it is worth noting that Amazon is seeking to hire 1,000 full and part-time employees to job growth in Professional & Business Services and Education & Health work in the facility. Services have grown at a rate of more than 15% above its prerecession peak. This trend is estimated to impact household incomes as these industries Miami Freedom Park, David Beckham’s new stadioum, was represent two of the highest-paying sectors in Miami. In addition, due to approved by Commissioners on the November ballot. The vote will the high level of condo and apartment buildings, the aggregate number of a decide whether Beckham should be able to build a stadium, hotel, people working in construction has grown. office complex, and big park on Melreese Country Club, which is city owned. The new park is projected to create around 11,000 new jobs. MIAMI JOB GROWTH TRENDS Governor Rick Scott announced that the Miami area EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS & JOB GROWTH (%) added 23,100 a new private-sector jobs in the past year, the third-highest number 1,355 3.5% of jobs among all Florida metros. 1,350 3.0% 1,345 2.5% 1,340 2.0% 2016 2017 2018 FORECAST 1,335 1,330 1.5% U.S EMPLOYMENT (% Change) 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1,325 1.0% 1,320 0.5% Employment (thousands) Employment 1,315 0.0% MSA EMPLOYMENT (% Change) 2.9% 2.2% -0.4% 1,310 1,305 -0.5% 1,300 -1.0% Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 MSA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) 5.4% 5.0% 3.8% Total Employment YOY % Job Change Source: Bureau Dept. of Labor Statistics Forecast is 12-month outlook JOB GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OUTLOOK • The South Florida region remains a draw for those approaching retirement age as the population growth over the last five years for the -0.4 -70 55+ age segment is 16%. % YOY BPS YOY • According to Moody’s Analytics, local commercial development and transit hub growth has shifted Miami’s path of growth upward. Average Q3 employment Average Q3 unemployment • The metro is projected to surpass 1.25 million jobs by 2023 with an decreased by 5,300 jobs. decreased to 3.8%. unemployment rate of 5.1%. MIAMI FORT LAUDERDALE WEST PALM BEACH ORLANDO TAMPA JACKSONVILLE Previous Page Home Next Page MARKET INSIGHT Third Quarter 2018 MIAMI 2 MULTIFAMILY TRENDS DEVELOPMENT / INVENTORY The average effective year-over-year rent growth rate for third quarter The number of units under construction in the Miami multifamily market 2018 was 3.4%. Vacancy decreased by 20 basis points, displaying persisting is approximately 12,000 units. According to CoStar, total units under market resiliency. construction equal to 10% of the current inventory in Miami. Much of the new product is delivering in Downtown Miami with additional suburbs like Coral Gables/South Miami also getting a fair load of new inventory. Link at Douglas, which will be one of Miami’s largest developments ever, will +3.4 -20 include 1,421 apartments and 251,873 square feet of office, in addition to % YOY BPS YOY restaurant and retail space. Average effective rent Vacancy decreased to an DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS increased to $1,586. average of 3.7%. The Miami Metro Division is projected to add approximately 20,000 renter Source: AXIOMetrics households from 2018 to 2023. Both population growth and median household income are forecast to follow suit with positive growth over the next five years. HISTORICAL & FORECASTED METRO RENT GROWTH RATES 2000: 2,253,419 2010: 2,496,439 Over the last five years, rent growth in the Miami Metro Division has POPULATION surpassed national averages, growing at a rate of 25%. The historical five- 2017: 2,728,694 year growth rate highlights strong fundamentals due to increased housing 2022: 2,846,071 demand caused by the large influx of people moving to Florida and the 2000: n/a Miami region, which has been further enhanced by recent tax reform. PERCENT 2010: 44.2% Moving forward, the next five-year growth rate for the Miami Metro Division RENTER is forecasted to scale back to 15.6%, with national averages at 14.6%. 2017: 46.2% HOUSEHOLDS 2022: 47.1% MIAMI RENT GROWTH RATES 24.8% 2000: $36,067 25.0% 24.8% MEDIAN 25.0% 2010: $42,952 H I S T O R I C A L F O R E C A S T HOUSEHOLD H I S T O R I C A L F O R E C A S T $44,288 20.0% INCOME 2017: 20.0% 2022: $51,424 15.6% 15.0% 15.6% 15.0% 10.2% MULTIFAMILY FORECAST 10.0% 10.2% 10.0% The following are Cushman & Wakefield’s projections over the near term: 5.0% 3.4% 5.0% 1.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 5-Year ChangeQ4 '17ChangeQ1 '18ChangeQ2 '18ChangeQ3 '18 Change1-YearChange3-YearChange5-Year Forecast5-Year -5.0% Change Change Change Change (YOY)Change Change Change Forecast (YOY) -5.0% PIPELINE % RENTS VACANCY Miami Metro United States GROWTH Miami Metro United States Source: AXIOMetrics Forecast is 12-month outlook MIAMI FORT LAUDERDALE WEST PALM BEACH ORLANDO TAMPA JACKSONVILLE Previous Page Home Next Page MARKET INSIGHT Third Quarter 2018 MIAMI 3 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY MOST ACTIVE MARKET PLAYERS Apartment sales volumes in Miami totaled about $984 million in the year- TOP THREE MIAMI BUYERS - PAST 12 MONTHS ending third quarter 2018, which is down roughly 35% year-over-year. The metro ranked 36th among the nation in total dollar amount. The average RANK BUYER TOTAL VOLUME NO. PROPERTIES cap rate for this same period stood at 5.48%, down five basis points over 1 DWS Group Americas $149,000,000 1 the previous year. Miami’s cap rate ranked 28th nationally while the annual 2 BREIT $138,925,000 2 change was 60th among the top U.S. metros. Miami continues to be a 3 Morgan Stanley $100,000,000 1 thinly traded market. Especially compared to its Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach counterparts. TOP THREE MIAMI SELLERS - PAST 12 MONTHS RANK SELLER TOTAL VOLUME NO. PROPERTIES HISTORICAL SALES VOLUME 1 Ares Management $194,925,000 3 $2,030$2,030 2 Gables Res./Clarion $149,000,000 1 3 CC Residential $138,925,000 2 $1,530 $1,530 Source: Real Capital Analytics $1,030 $1,030 (in millions) PRICING & CAP RATES $530 The average Class A and Class B price per unit has increased by 24% $530 year over year through the third quarter of 2018, and the price per unit for Class C product increased by approximately 9% on a per unit basis.
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