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Gauging Trump/Pence Reelection 2016 Upset Shadows the President’S 2020 Chances by BRIAN A

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Gauging Trump/Pence Reelection 2016 Upset Shadows the President’S 2020 Chances by BRIAN A V25, N40 Thursday, June 25, 2020 Gauging Trump/Pence reelection 2016 upset shadows the president’s 2020 chances By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The original sin of any credible political operator is to base campaign assumptions on the previous cycle. In the context of the American presidency (particularly from a Hoosier perspective), 2016 was a historic doozy. While some point to 1968 as the last year for such political volatility, the year 2016 that produced the Trump/ Pence ticket was utterly unpredictable, for Indiana. With Donald Trump’s presidential campaign prompting the frequent “Anything can happen” forecast at best in transition and in all probability, in a mode of from these quarters. outright implosion, with Gov. Mike Pence locked in a dead The June 23, 2016, edition of HPI is worth re- Continued on page 3 visiting: “This is the official posting of a tsunami watch Attorney general chaos By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – Traditional media grassroots reporting has shriveled. Without large congregations of people, not to mention the waiting on results that often come days later, predicting results is on even more un- “This is a hard note to write so I stable ground. The Indiana Democrats, will keep it short. After 30 years in hindsight, provided one of the most exciting convention at WTHR I have decided to retire. contests in Indiana history. For- I still intend to write about Indi- mer Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel defeated Portage ana, but my days in television are State Sen. Karen Tallian, 1057 coming to a close. I was born a to 1009. When 2,000 delegates vote and the margin is 48, it is Husker and will die a Hoosier.” a cliff-hanger by any definition. - Kevin Rader, WTHR-TV Had 25 voters switched, Tallian would have won. Some 17% Page 2 of the delegates didn’t vote, which and conservative. I do not favor any means around 300 of them. I’ve done particular candidate. many, many whip counts. Nothing is First, incumbent Attorney more difficult than not knowing who is General Curtis Hill. His problems are voting in a close contest. clear and so are his advantages. Narrowly nominating Social conservatives are his core sup- Howey Politics Indiana Weinzapfel over Tallian did spare the porters, including Jim Bopp of Vigo WWWHowey Media, LLC Democrats the illogical slate of two County and Cathie Humbarger of c/o Business Office of their top three candidates being Allen County, the two most influen- PO Box 6553 from the Region. It should raise some tial Right-to-Life leaders in the state. concern among Republicans because Long-time activists like Monica Boyer Kokomo, IN, 46904 it means that, albeit by only a switch (Kosciusko) and Linda Zimmerman www.howeypolitics.com of 25 voters, the Democrats may not (Whitley) are also publicly backing be as focused on making strategic him. Hill has the continued support Brian A. Howey, Publisher mistakes this year. Weinzapfel, a of prosecutors in key counties like Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington talented and proven candidate in the competitive southwestern Mary Lou Howey, Editor region, still faces the challenge Susan E. Joiner, Editor of being a liberal in a state that no observer would consider Subscriptions liberal. But the two Democratic HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 candidates at least represented HPI Weekly, $350 some chaos control the Repub- Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager licans do not have. Attorney (765) 452-3936 telephone General Curtis Hill and former (765) 452-3973 fax Congressman Todd Rokita have [email protected] both won many elections and have somewhat defined sup- Contact HPI port. Were this a primary, and [email protected] barring millions being spent by Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 any challenger (a huge assump- tion in this era), they would be Washington: 202.256.5822 the clear favorites. But it isn’t Business Office: 765.452.3936 a primary; it is a chaotic COVID “Kind-of-Convention.” © 2020, Howey Politics I’ve tried to analyze Indiana. All rights reserved. Facebook endorsements and chatter for the four candidates. This Tippecanoe. He should not be un- Photocopying, Internet forward- does not include all of them but was derestimated, especially since public ing, faxing or reproducing in any representative through June 24. It support for him has more risk. form, whole or part, is a violation does shed light. Todd Rokita has historic of federal law without permission In other words, in a close connections in his former congres- from the publisher. primary or convention, taking sides is sional district in central Indiana and viewed as more dangerous than get- Lake, the county that propelled him ting COVID by Republican leaders and in his original secretary of state Jack E. Howey elected officials. A pre-existing condi- convention win. Rokita’s Facebook editor emeritus tion would be to have backed others endorsements include State Sens. 1926-2019 who lost, especially if those who were Ryan Mishler (Kosciusko) and Rick defeated were backed by the governor Niemeyer (Lake), as well as State and other influential elected officials. Reps. Denny Zent of Steuben and If you don’t care who you offend, Heath VanNatter (Howard). Rokita your influence is defined and probably has picked up diverse endorsements limited inside even your own county from delegates including Washington delegation. County Chair Tara Coats, former state I personally feel all four senator Tom Weatherwax (Cass) and candidates are qualified for the job former Evansville city councilwoman Page 3 Michelle Mercer. He also has the endorsement of 3rd mond III is the Public Affairs Group co-chair. District Vice-Chair Mary Trausch-Martin, possibly the most Harter has the endorsements of two state reps and enthusiastic activist I have ever known. Rokita has the sort three state senators that I could easily count. The most of delegate spread indicative of an experienced statewide important one is State Sen. Mark Messmer, the majority candidate. leader and close ally of U.S. Sen. Mike Braun. He also has John Westercamp and Nate Harter are two the endorsements of the county chairs of Bartholomew, younger candidates from central Indiana who, like Hill Crawford, Ripley, Rush, and Shelby. In order words, he and Rokita, are conservatives. They emerged as the early has strong public support in southern and south central challengers to incumbent Hill. Westercamp had some Indiana, including in former congressman Luke Messer’s early supporters before Harter and Rokita entered the district. race that had shown the establishment (i.e. the Holcomb- In addition to endorsements, frequent “likes” of Pence-Coats base that is currently the most dominant) was political posts that clearly support the candidate are also tilting his way. He also has the public endorsement of 3rd an indicator of support. Influential Anne Hathaway, now a District Chairman Mitch Harper, stating: “I respect his legal political consultant and a Republican godmother of sorts, is acumen, tenacity, and deep and thoughtful defense of enthusiastic about Harter as is Brian Gamache, who works constitutional rights.” Westercamp’s Facebook page touts for Hathaway Strategies. Others who have not “endorsed” the endorsement of Boone County Councilman Kevin Van but appear frequently also are interesting including Oliver Horn. Boone is less populated but an increasingly impor- Henderson, a former field director for Sen. Braun and The- tant part of the Indianapolis donut counties. Activists such resa Green, a college student and young Republican leader as Daniel Kinnamon (Hendricks) also have stated sup- who won a hard-fought nomination for Whitley County port for Westercamp. The donut counties seem to tilt for commissioner in the primary. They are examples of Harter’s Westercamp and Harter. younger supporters, which Westercamp also has brought to An analysis of Facebook makes something very the Party. clear: It is Harter who is the “establishment” choice. The There obviously are flaws to Facebook analy- former Decatur County prosecutor was Hill’s deputy, up sis, but it does make this clear: If Harter does not win, no until very recently. He has experience in office and as a centralized party control exists. The Republicans, like the prosecutor, even if his electoral experience is only in a Democrats, are not the controlled parties of the old days. county with 25,000 people. But this is not a primary. The But if this many district chairs and other leaders cannot voters are primarily Republican activists, donors and/or lead a candidate to victory in a convention designed to be elected officials. relatively controlled, Republicans could become as disorga- Harter has the public endorsements of five con- nized as the Democrats. v gressional district chairs: 4th, Mike O’Brien; 5th, Judy Buck; 7th, Lesa Dietrick; 8th, Don Hayes; 9th, Jamey Noel. Souder is a former Republican congressman from That is five of nine. Dietrick is also a principal of IceMiller, Indiana. at which Indiana GOP National Committeeman John Ham- Trump, from page 1 heat along with sagging reelect and job approval numbers, and with Pence at- taching his dinghy to the political equiva- lent of the RMS Titanic, the potential for severe down-ballot trauma for Hoosier GOP nominees is heightened.” The 2016 tell-tales for HPI’s June 23 “tsunami watch” were these: Hillary Clinton had a $42 million to $1.3 million cash-on-hand advantage over had Indiana in a “likely” Trump category instead of the Donald Trump; she outraised Trump $1 million to $58,000 normal “safe” designation. in Indiana; she had a 700-to-69 campaign staffing ad- As we now know, Trump’s reversal from a “blue vantage; Clinton had 100% dominance in swing state tsunami” to a 19% plurality in Indiana as he cracked the advertising; Trump’s approval in a Washington Post/ABC “blue wall” in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania began Poll was 29% while just 65% of Republicans viewed Trump in the first week of July.
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