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A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas a Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas

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A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas a Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas Atlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Agnia Grigas Energy Diplomacy Initiative The Energy Diplomacy Initiative (EDI), as part of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, aims to drive a global conversation on critical climate and energy security challenges, with the objective to prevent conflict and build bridges through energy ties, provide everyone with access to reliable, affordable, sustainable, and modern energy, and galvanize communities for climate action around a more stable, secure, and prosperous world. Cover photo credit: REUTERS/George Frey. A natural gas drilling rig operates as natural gas piping rises from underground outside Rifle, Colorado, June 6, 2012. ISBN: 978-1-61977-456-8 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. January 2017 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 9 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 10 Natural Gas Markets in Transition .......................................................................................... 12 The United States in the Geopolitics of Natural Gas ..................................................... 14 Policy Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 18 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 20 About the Author ......................................................................................................................... 20 A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Executive Summary The new US presidential administration of Donald J. As an emerging energy superpower, the United States Trump and the newly elected Congress will have an should take on a leadership role in the global natural opportunity to reassess the country’s domestic natural gas markets to support its allies in Europe, contain its gas policies and its natural gas diplomacy strategy in adversaries, and reshape relations with rising Asian the face of transformed global natural gas markets. powers. Already, Russia’s energy influence is waning in Natural gas is on the verge of becoming a global its historic markets in Europe, its old backyards of the commodity, a development that has been spearheaded Caucasus and Central Asia, and Asia where it hopes to by a boom in US shale gas production, the growth of gain new markets. By leveraging its energy influence the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, and a and formulating a gas diplomacy strategy, Washington buildup of gas transport infrastructure worldwide. can favorably realign strategic relations between the world powers. As a result of the shale boom, the United States has emerged as the world’s greatest producer of natural Continued political support for easing regulations gas and is rising to become a leading exporter of LNG. on LNG exports, improved pipeline infrastructure in In 2016, the first US LNG deliveries made their way to the United States, and new trade agreements would Latin America, Europe, Asia, and the Gulf. The United support the United States’ breakout position in the States has also been instrumental in changing the global gas markets. By strengthening its cooperation conventional practices of the international gas trade: with NATO countries and other allies over energy away from a reliance on long-term contracts to the security—including by exporting technology and introduction of spot trading, and away from gas prices expertise and providing investment or funding on shale that are linked to oil to those that are linked to “Henry development and LNG trade—the United States would Hub,” the foremost US natural gas trading hub. These cement its leadership position in the new geopolitics practices are gaining wider acceptance. of gas. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 9 A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration Introduction As Donald J. Trump takes office as the forty-fifth half-century-long status quo of global gas relations. president of the United States on January 20, 2017, his Traditional gas suppliers like Russia are seeing their administration will have an opportunity to reassess US influence wane, while gas-importing states have more energy policy, specifically, its natural gas policy. This flexibility and optionality in their import sources. US reassessment will not only be a by-product of a change LNG exports add greater liquidity to the global natural in leadership in Washington, but is necessitated by the gas markets and thus can help secure and diversify fundamental transformation of the world’s natural gas Europe’s supplies. Direct deliveries are also possible as markets since President Barack Obama took office per US early exports to Spain and Portugal. Moreover, eight years ago. In 2011, the International Energy US LNG can contain the influence of Russian gas Agency proclaimed that the world energy markets behemoth Gazprom and Moscow’s use of gas supplies were entering “the golden age of gas.”1 Since then, as a foreign policy tool. It can also court energy-hungry the natural gas markets have seen an influx of new Asian powers like China, which has been trying to gas sources, greater liquidity, a growing liquefied secure its natural gas imports and has looked to Russia natural gas (LNG) trade, a buildup of gas transport as a potential supplier. If properly leveraged, America’s infrastructure, and an increased appetite for natural gas newfound energy prowess can be an invaluable tool of as a cleaner fossil fuel alternative diplomacy and help ensure that US to oil or coal. The boom in US and allied leadership continues to shale gas development, which guide the twenty-first century. also irreversibly altered America’s The budding US natural gas industry, spearheaded role as an energy While over the past few years, US many of these worldwide changes. superpower energy policy has seen divisive The United States emerged as the partisan debate over energy world’s leading gas producer in offers a number production, exports, and how 2011 and as an LNG exporter in of opportunities to address climate change, the 2016, with US inaugural deliveries benefits of the United States’ to Brazil, India, United Arab for the new natural gas boom offer room Emirates, Argentina, Portugal, administration for bipartisan agreement. The Kuwait, Chile, Spain, China, Jordan, and the American economic, climatic, security, and the Dominican Republic, and geopolitical gains awarded by Mexico. In the coming years, the natural gas the rise of US domestic energy United States stands to become industry. production offer many benefits one of the world’s leading LNG for the next US administration. exporters. While some would prefer to see more environmental regulation The budding US role as an energy superpower offers in domestic gas production, especially in regards to a number of opportunities for the new administration fracking, and others would prefer to boost production and the American natural gas industry. At the same to maximize economic and energy security benefits, at time, the United States faces a number of challenges: this point neither the Democrats nor the Republicans a resurgent Russia, a vulnerable and potentially would seek to block US LNG exports or hinder the fracturing Europe, and an unstable Middle East. How American natural gas industry. Moreover, in light of can Washington leverage its natural gas endowment climate change concerns, many regard gas as a cleaner for diplomatic aims under these circumstances? How fossil fuel that can serve as a bridge to renewables, should the United States lead in the international gas potentially reducing carbon dioxide emissions. markets given the new geopolitics of natural gas? Nonetheless, President Trump’s administration will The geopolitics of natural gas is already undergoing a undoubtedly face unexpected developments and significant shift. The emergence of new gas resources potentially new challenges in the energy markets. and the growth of LNG trade are challenging the Markets are fickle and cyclical. It is uncertain how long the current cycle of low oil and gas prices and tempered energy demand will last. In contrast, if low gas prices 1 International Energy Agency, Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? World Energy Outlook 2011, Special Report 2011, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2011/ WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf. 10 ATLANTIC COUNCIL A Natural Gas Diplomacy Strategy for the New US Administration LNG terminal at Sabine Pass, Texas, USA. Photo credit: Think Defense/Flickr. persist, will worldwide investment in LNG import and constraints for the next administration’s domestic and export infrastructure continue? For now, the US gas international natural gas policies. In many instances, industry has demonstrated an incredible aptitude for these realities present opportunities for US leadership raising efficiency and
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