The World Bank

Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: 122520-MA IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF-A1741 ON A SMALL GRANT

Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF US$750,000 TO THE KINGDOM OF MOROCCO, AGENCE DU BASSIN HYDRAULIQUE DE L’OUM ER RBIA FOR STRENGTHENING CAPACITY FOR AN INCLUSIVE DESIGN OF GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT CONTRACT FOR GREEN GROWTH PROJECT (P154280) December 29, 2017

Public Disclosure Authorized At Approval At Completion Regional Vice Hafez M. H. Hafez M. H. President: Ghanem Ghanem Marie-Francoise Marie-Francoise Country Director: Marie- Nelly Marie- Nelly Senior Global Practice Junaid Kamal Guang Chen Director: Ahmad Steven N. Carmen Nonay Practice Manager Schonberger Task Team Leader(s): Amal Talbi Amal Talbi ICR Main Contributor: Esther Illouz

Water Global Practice Public Disclosure Authorized Middle East and North Africa Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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The World Bank

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ABH Agence de Bassin Hydraulique (River Basin Agency) ABHOER Agence de Bassin Hydraulique de l’Oum Er Rbia (River Basin Agency of the Oum Er Rbia River Basin) AFD Agence Française de Développement AUEA Fédération des associations d’usagers des eaux agricoles (Federation of agriculture water users) CEM Country Economic Memorandum CIRAD Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (French agricultural research organization) CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 COP Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC) CRA/ERC Climate Risk Assessment / Évaluation du risque climatique CSEC Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat DMN Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (National Department of Meteorology) DPL Development Policy Loan DRPE Direction de Recherche et Planification des Eaux, Secrétariat d'État Chargé de l'Eau (Research and Planning Department at the Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water) EU European Union GCM/MCG Global Circulation/Climate Model (Modèle de circulation globale) GIS Geographical Information System GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Development Agency) GSG Global Solution Group (Global Practice of the World Bank) IWMI International Water Management Institute MAD Moroccan Dinar MDTF Multi-donor Trust Fund MEMEE Ministère de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment) (until 2015) METLE Ministère de l’Equipement, du Transport, de la Logistique et de l’Eau (Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water) NDC Nationally Determined Contribution (of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change) OER Oum Er Rbia (River basin) ONEE Office National de l'Electricité et de l'Eau Potable (National Electricity and Water Utility) ORMVAT Office Régional de la Mise en Valeur Agricole de Tadla (Regional Agricultural Development Office for Tadla) PDAIRE Plan directeur d’aménagement intégré des ressources en eau au niveau du bassin hydraulique (Master Plan for Integrated Water Resource Development)

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PMV Plan Maroc Vert (Morocco Green Plan) PNE Plan National de l’Eau (National Water Plan) PNEEI Plan National de l'Economie de l'Eau d'Irrigation (National Plan for Saving Water in Irrigation) RIBASIM River Basin Simulation Model RTA Regional Technical Assistance (World Bank) UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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Contents DATA SHEET ...... 8 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...... 10 II. OUTCOME ...... 14 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ...... 23 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 25 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 27 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ...... 31 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...... 39 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIERS AND OTHER PARTNERS/STAKEHOLDERS COMMENTS (OPTIONAL) ...... 42 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ...... 43

Annex 4.1 - Contrat cadre du système aquifère du Tadla 2018-2030, 27 septembre 2017

Annex 4.2 - Water Law 36-15, relevant articles

Annex 4.3 - ABHOER géo-portail

Annex 4.4 - Map of the Tadla aquifer

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DATA SHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

Product Information

Project ID P154280

Country Morocco

Original EA Category Not Required (C)

Organizations

Agence du Bassin Agence de Bassin Hydraulique de Kingdom of Morocco Hydraulique de l’Oum Er Rbia l’Oum Er Rbia

Project Development Objective (PDO)

To support the River Basin Agency of Oum Er Rbia in drafting inclusive groundwater management contracts using participatory methods.

Revised PDO

S_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO FINANCING Donors Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Regional Technical $750,000 $750,000 $728,291.12 Assistance (RTA) MDTF

Total $750,000 $750,000 $728,291.12

KEY DATES

Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing December 23, 2015 January 28, 2016 February 16, 2017 June 15, 2017

RESTRUCTURING

Amount Disbursed Restructuring Date(s) Key Revisions at Restructuring (US$M) February 13, 2017 0.11 Extension of closing date

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KEY RATINGS Outcome Satisfactory

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I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

Context

Owing to its geographical location, Morocco has considerable climate differences within its territory and variable rainfall depending on the region and season. With a view to supporting its development, Morocco has, for decades, been committed to managing its water resources by constructing major infrastructure to meet its household, industrial, and agricultural needs and improving the efficiency of water infrastructure. The sector policy focused on controlling and mobilizing surface water resources through the construction of large dams. Morocco has 140 large dams with a capacity exceeding 17.6 billion m3. This has helped secure the drinking water supply for Moroccan communities and develop a large-scale irrigation perimeters with a view to support agricultural growth. In conjunction, groundwater is widely exploited, with several thousand boreholes and wells across the country. In areas where surface water is available, groundwater conjunctive use is often observed due to its perennial nature, with a higher resilience to inter-annual variability when compared to surface water, making it a critical resource during times of drought. In other areas, groundwater might represent the only source for communities. Major regulatory and institutional strides were also made to enhance water management efficiency across the territory, such as the adoption of Law 10-95 (1995) for integrated, participatory, and decentralized water resources management through the establishment of river basin agencies (Agences de Bassin Hydraulique or ABHs) and the implementation of mechanisms for the protection of water resources. In 2016 a new Water Law 36-15 was adopted to replace law 10-95. In parallel, the government is putting emphasis on integrated water management, governance, and efficiency (for example the Office National de l'Electricité et de l'Eau (ONEE) has established targets for reducing non-revenue water). Nevertheless, the water sector continues to grapple with major challenges related to the depletion of water resources, the intensification of extreme climate events (floods and droughts) possibly caused by climate variability and change, and inadequate resources to meet growing needs coupled with overexploitation of groundwater resources. To address these challenges and ensure the country's water security, the National Water Strategy (Stratégie Nationale de l'Eau), a benchmark strategy for water policy in Morocco issued in 2009, is based on three areas:  Water demand management and water use efficiency. With respect to the drinking water supply, in addition to the objectives of providing universal access to safe drinking water, the government has worked on improving the output of drinking water supply networks by adopting a drinking water conservation program that entails the rehabilitation of supply networks, improved metering, maintenance and upkeep of the networks, sectorization and restructuring, research, and the repair of leaks. In agriculture, under the Green Morocco Plan (Plan Maroc Vert or PMV) which provides the institutional framework to mobilize the financial and technical resources to modernize irrigation systems in the country at a large scale, and under the parallel National Plan for Saving Water in Irrigation (Plan national d’économie de l’eau d’irrigation or PNEEI)1 50,000 hectares have been converted to drip irrigation annually.

 Development of the water supply through the additional storage of surface water in dams, seawater desalination,

1 The PNEEI promotes more productive water use by introducing more efficient irrigation technologies (mainly drip irrigation) on 555,000 hectares of the country’s irrigated land by 2020, of which 335,000 hectares in individual farms (relying on groundwater through private wells), and 220,000 hectares in LSIs (relying on surface water with some conjunctive use of groundwater when private wells are available).

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the reuse of treated wastewater, and the possibility of transferring water from basins with a surplus, in the northwest (Loukos, Sebou basins) to basins that have a deficit, in the center-west region (Bouregreg, Oum Er Rbia and Marrakech in the Tensift basin). The government has recently appointed a multi-sectoral committee to identify a large investment program for drinking and irrigation water to be implemented from 2018 to 2025.

 Conservation of water resources and the natural environment and climate change adaptation through conservation of the quality of the water resources, sustainable groundwater management, watershed development and the protection of sensitive areas (wetlands and oases).

The PNE also includes a flood protection and drought relief component aimed at responding to the challenge of adapting to climate change and more effectively managing extreme natural phenomena.

With regard to regulations for the implementation of the PNE, the body of legislation and regulations continues to be strengthened, notably with the adoption in August 2016 of a new Water Law (No. 36-15) that pursues the objectives of the previous Law 10-95 and stipulates the rules for integrated, decentralized, and participatory water resources management, with a view to guaranteeing the right of citizens to have access to water. The new law has introduced reforms aimed primarily at consolidating decentralized, integrated, and participatory management and planning of water resources, strengthening consultation and coordination bodies and organizations through the establishment of water basin councils, establishing legal foundations to diversify supply sources through the use of unconventional water resources including desalinated seawater, implementing water-related information systems, reinforcing the institutional framework and mechanisms for the protection and conservation of water resources, and strengthening financial instruments for the development of the water sector (abiding to certain principles such “user pays/polluter pays”).

Going forward, one of the major challenges is the prevailing top-down approach, which has made it challenging for the ABHs to ensure compliance of farmers and other users with regulatory measures.

While Law 10-95 grants the ABHs the responsibility to manage water resources, low financial revenues and human resources level limits their ability to fully implement this mandate. As a result, wells –i.e. outside the areas managed by the Regional Agricultural Development Offices (Office Régional de Mise en Valeur Agricole or ORMVAs)— remain largely uncontrolled and, owing to the perception that water is a common good, farmers are unwilling to pay for the abstracted groundwater (according to the Water Law, farmers are supposed to pay for withdrawal for agriculture purpose at a fee of 0.02 DH/m3). Even when groundwater meters are installed on private wells, many farmers remove or tamper them after their installation. The ABHs have been coordinating and involving stakeholders in water management activities as a way to improve their ability to fully implement their mandate of managing water resources at basin level.

Based on the declaration of King Mohammed V that groundwater protection is a national priority, the government initiated, with the National Water Strategy, a collective dialogue on the problems shared within an aquifer to define sustainable water management policies involving all concerned users.2 Accordingly, users are expected to jointly decide how to exploit groundwater resources over time (increasing, stabilizing, or reducing groundwater use) and the trade-off for economic development (increasing groundwater use in the short run translating into risks in the future).

2 International Water Management Institute. April 2017. Groundwater governance in the Arab World – Taking stock and addressing the challenges Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI.

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Project design relevant to the context

In this context, the problem was framed as “traditional supply-driven solutions are not adequate for addressing the climate induced and anthropogenic water deficits” which allowed to design relevant approaches and cost-effective activities. First, based on previous experience, the project aimed at testing the design of a “framework groundwater contract” for improving the management of two deep, most vulnerable, aquifers (Eocene and Turonien) following the principles of inclusiveness, transparency and agreement, while also incorporating an up-to-date bottom-up approach for the Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) of water and irrigation related performance indicators for the basin. Second, the choice of the Oum Er Rbia Basin to implement this technical assistance project was based on the existing Bank engagement in irrigation and sanitation through investment operations, to complement these investments with a focused dialogue for improving the management of the Tadla aquifer. The latter is being used for irrigation and water supply as vital component of local development (overall agriculture uses over 90% of water resources of the basin), but is overexploited, hence the urgent need to address the problem. The focus on two deep aquifers was coherent with the fact that in areas of the basin which are located outside the public irrigation perimeter, deep groundwater is the only available water resource, resulting in overexploitation and risk for economic development. Finally, with the strong ownership of the water basin agency (ABHOER) to advance groundwater management, Oum Er Rbia appeared as the logical place for the new generation of groundwater management systems (“groundwater contracts”) as per previous experience.

Project Development Objective (PDO)

The development objective of the grant was to support the Oum Er Rbia River Basin Agency in drafting inclusive groundwater management contracts using participatory methods. The overarching goal was to coordinate decisions of actors, empower the ABHOER, introduce a bottom-up approach for Climate Risk Assessment and planning, and instill peer pressure for managing groundwater at the river basin level – the scale deemed adequate for Oum Er Rbia in view of the relatively well-performing resource management system.

Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators

The above objective was set to conform with the inter-ministerial circular of November 15, 2013 (“Circulaire interministerielle” n° 47 pro75 bis on the « méthodologie d’élaboration et de mise en œuvre des contrats de nappe pour la préservation des ressources en eau souterraines ») issued by the Ministers of Interior, Agriculture and Water, that defines the official steps required (both technical and process-related steps such as specifying the exact list of stakeholders that should be involved) to prepare groundwater management contracts in Morocco.3 In other words, the project aimed to prepare one of the first contracts to “operationalize” the circular. (This inter-ministerial circular for groundwater management contracts was completed as part of the World Bank’s Development Policy Loan (DPL) to support the Green Growth program of the government which aimed to support improved groundwater management to ensure the sustainability and stability of agriculture incomes, including for small farmers.)

Accordingly, the PDO indicator was that “the contract for the management of two overexploited aquifers in the Oum Er Rbia basin would be drafted following a consultation process.” The choice of strictly implementing the circular and to prepare a “framework” management contract covering several layered aquifers in the Tadla system

3 There is no one single definition of groundwater contracts. Their form depends on country-specific regulatory and institutional framework, and physical and social characteristics. Commonly, contracts constitute a tool for local management of the groundwater and enable measures for preserving/restoring the resources which are committed among public actors, users, and between users themselves, under a legal authority. Their preparation typically entails a participatory process with concertation of all users as “local water policy », under a larger hydrology planning at the basin scale (Agence Française de Développement, June 2016, Gestion des ressources en eau souterraines comme biens communs. Note technique N°18).

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was made based on the analysis of the present economic, institutional and physical conditions pertaining to the Tadla region where irrigation is inevitably developing in the short term, while groundwater continues to be exploited. The project preparation study4 included a stakeholder mapping and recommendations for setting up a participatory groundwater management system for the entire Tadla, based on the local conditions but also local and international experience, and the new Water Law that was under revision at the time. The short duration of the grant (initially 14 months) was also a motivating factor for the final choice of a more generic PDO indicator, with the reasoning that specific contracts for local areas would take longer to draft. Nevertheless, based on the results of the initial stakeholder mapping, the team took actions to advance the identification of critical areas of the basin (hot spots) to be regulated by specific contracts in a next phase, and to initiate these towards the end of the project.

Ultimately, it was expected that eventually there would be a better understanding of the political economy and a better way to test pilot "specific management contracts" by sectors or hot spot areas to further pilot what had worked in the Oum Er Rbia Basin.

Components

Component 1: Stakeholder involvement in selecting performance indicators for a climate risk assessment of water resources, including groundwater, in the Oum Er Rbia Basin (Cost: US$0.165 million). The objective of this component was to assess the climate vulnerability in the Oum Er Rbia Basin of selected performance indicators, particularly for the future availability of groundwater and surface water for irrigation, and to the extent possible assess potential mitigating measures and actions aimed at reducing the identified climate vulnerabilities. The main tasks were the following: (a) assessment of current information/knowledge on the basin (hydrology/hydrogeology) and the initial scoping of possible future groundwater and surface water imbalances; (b) training on the bottom-up methodology for Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) 5 and consultation with key stakeholders in identifying key performance indicators for main water uses (and thresholds, to the extent possible); (c) Assessment of the imbalances in surface water and groundwater use and recharge under the present climate conditions and a CRA for key performance indicators for potential future conditions (and thresholds, to the extent possible); and (d) consultations on the results of climate risk impacts for key indicators (and possibly thresholds) and the identification of potential trade-offs between climate change impacts and potential mitigating measures.

Component 2: Inclusive design and establishment of groundwater contract management in the Oum Er Rbia Basin (Cost: US$0.585 million). The objective of this component was to support the consultative process and the design of the groundwater management contract for two aquifers in the Oum Er Rbia Basin. The key elements for increasing the likelihood of a successful groundwater management contract are involving the stakeholders, building trust, good communication, and transparency in the process.

According to the project document, stakeholders would debate, through consultations, different development options once the modeling of the groundwater would be available, such as business as usual (increasing the use of groundwater gradually over time), stabilizing the use of groundwater, or reducing the use of groundwater. The consultations would be the platforms to provide stakeholders with the information on the impact of each scenario and help reach a consensus on the scenario(s) that would be the basis for the design of the groundwater

4 The study was procured by the Bank in March 2015. The final report (“Etude d’opérationnalisation de la méthodologie de mise en œuvre du contrat de la nappe profonde du Tadla ») was completed in March 2016. 5 The adopted CRA/ERC methodology is consistent with the Climate Decision Tree methodology, a method developed by the World Bank in 2016 to help operational teams to identity robust climate-resilient measures in projects, based on the quantification of vulnerabilities to climate change and variability, in order to increase project performance across a wide range of potential future climate conditions and with the work that was previously conducted by the Bank in the Niger River Basin (Source: Ray, Patrick A.; Brown, Casey M.. 2015. Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22544).

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management contract. The technical consultations would be done parallel to those that would focus on institutional aspects, namely the form and substance of the groundwater management contract.

II. OUTCOME

Assessment of Achievement of each Objective/Outcome

The PDO was fully achieved. Taken together, the outcome and outputs have established a clear methodology for the preparation of specific contracts for groundwater hot spots following an inclusive approach. A framework contract covering the Tadla system (see map in Annex 4.4)6, “Contrat cadre du système aquifère du Tadla”, was drafted by the project closing date. A copy of the final approved contract is included in Annex 4.1. Based on an analysis of the current status of the basin hydrology and trends related to climate risk, the overarching goal of the groundwater management contract is to ensure the sustainable development of the region supported by resilient investments and measures that reduce the pressure on groundwater.

The process dimension of the PDO (“following participatory methods”) was also achieved, with both the main institutional actors, as well as users sensitized and engaged in the implementation.7 This inclusive process, was based on a review during preparation (through in-depth-discussions, meetings, and interviews) of the four categories of actors identified in the preparation study’s stakeholder mapping, their roles and stakes, namely public institutions, water public service providers, private agriculture service providers, and other parties playing an indirect role in the groundwater exploitation such as investors and other groundwater users.

The inclusive process comprised four consultations and one regional workshop on groundwater management which was chaired by the Head of the Béni Mellal- Khénifra Region or Wali, where Tadla is located, and gathering all parties concerned with the future implementation of the contract, as well as other key representatives (Institut Agricole et Vétérinaire, University Hassan II, University of Beni Mellal, ORMVA), and international experts (February 16, 2017). Recommendations of participants were documented and disseminated through reports and effectively incorporated in the draft contract. A crucial milestone was achieved shortly after the project closing, when the Project Steering Committee validated the contract officially at a workshop on September 27, 2017. These iterations, including those that took place after the closing date, were facilitated by ABHOER and shared with the project team.

The project delivered all expected outputs. Under Component 1, it provided training, basin-wide consultations and a comprehensive assessment of future climate risks to water resources development in the basin, focusing on the sustainability of conjunctive surface water and groundwater use; and under Component 2 it conducted technical studies, held numerous consultations to share information from the extensive groundwater assessments, developed a framework contract, and took significant steps required for the design of future groundwater management contracts. These outputs were achieved according to quality standards with the support of several national consulting firms.

Two additional activities were funded through cost savings under Component 2: (a) Under Component 2, the creation –on ABHOER’s public website— of an interactive portal (“géo-portail”) (see Annex 4.3) for users to access

6 The Tadla system is composed of several groundwater layers: Mio-Plio-Quaternaire aquifer, Eocene aquifer; Senonien aquifer; Turonien aquifer. Complex exchanges occur between the upper and deeper layers, where changes in pumping volumes generate changes in fluxes and relations between layers. 7 Institutional actors included: Agriculture Chamber at the regional level (Chambre d’agriculture régionale de Béni Mellal- Khénifra), DRPE staff, Water Ministry (Director), officials from the Tadla ORMVA), ONEE, Office Chérifien des Phosphates, National Meteorology Department (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale or DMN), Head of the Region or Wali, and universities (University Hassan II, University Beni Mellal).

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groundwater information, the framework contract and related technical and regulatory documents. This was driven by ABHOER’s will to mainstream the new methodology in its own system, and to ensure consistency with the wider Master Plan for Integrated Water Resource Development (“Plan directeur d’aménagement intégré des ressources en eau au niveau du bassin hydraulique” or PDAIRE), as per the regulation. (b) Under Component 1, ABHOER purchased a new River Basin Simulation Model (RIBASIM) license using Excel (allowing to integrate in its own system, the groundwater data, scenarios and simulations for the basin’s aquifers, as well as adaptation strategies, and to improve its reporting system), and the associated training to utilize it.8

Disbursement of the grant amount reached 98%: 35% disbursed for Component 1, and for Component 2, 61% and an additional 2% for the new above capacity building activities (RIBASIM license and training, and dedicated web portal). Out of the total grant amount approved, US$21,708.88 were cancelled.9 In addition, the project funded a financial audit covering exercise 2016 and the period of January 2107 to July 30, 2017.10 The audit highlighted some issues related to internal control procedures such as budget approval and contract signing. As regard the procurement of the national consulting firm for Component 2, it started before the effectiveness of the grant, and the contracting was completed within 12 months,11 which is considered efficient compared to the typical duration for hiring consultants in Morocco. In terms of financial management, ABH complied with Bank guidelines and implemented the recommendations, transmitting all required information in a satisfactory manner.

The closing date of the grant was extended from the original date of February 16, 2017 to June 15, 2017, providing four months to complete all activities, including the two additional activities.

Intermediate indicator #1

The intermediary indicator #1 corresponding to “Component 1 “Stakeholder involvement in selecting performance indicators for a climate risk assessment of water resources, including groundwater, in the Oum Er Rbia Basin” was that “improved knowledge on the management of climate risk is shared with stakeholders.” The end target was that ABHOER/MEMEE staff is trained in the assessment of climate and other risks, and training sessions and workshops are provided to stakeholders, which will include on average 15% females

This indicator was largely achieved, as follows:

Improved knowledge on the management of climate risk

The combination of technical assistance by the national consulting firms and by the National Meteorology Department (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale or DMN) and of coaching of ABHOER by the Bank consultants, in undertaking the CRA exercise has increased the local knowledge for evaluating and integrating climate risks in water resources development as part of basin-wide planning under the PDAIRE process. Two formal trainings provided ABHOER and DMN staff with new technical knowledge on how to apply the CRA methodology to assess climate risks regarding surface water and groundwater sustainability. The first training, in Beni Mellal, on May 24, 2016, targeted ABHOER staff and other parties. The second training, in Casablanca, on May 30, 2016, targeted experts from the DMN. Subsequently, ABHOER staff was closely involved with the consultants in carrying out the CRA, while the Bank team supported the ABHOER team as necessary. This on-the-job learning

8 The training targeted ABHOER users and modelers and was conducted by an expert from Deltares, the license holder and developer of the RIBASIM software. 9 Client Connections, December 9, 2017. 10 The audit report was received by the Bank on July 26, 2017 (including the grace period date in accordance with Annex (Section III-3-03) of the Grant Agreement). 11 The publication date in the DG-Market was March 25, 2015 and the contract on signed on May 17, 2016.

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approach was factored in at early stages. It aimed at enabling the agency’s staff to use in their ongoing work, an ensemble of climate scenarios as input into their own hydro-geological modeling, and conduct later on water resources system modeling to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the availability of surface water for irrigation and other purposes, as part of the PDAIRE.

The key findings from the analysis of the climate projections and historical hydrology of the Oum Er Rbia Basin were that water availability would be significantly reduced in Morocco as the projected future climate for the country is overall drier than the historical climate, with an estimated average projected rainfall reduction of 20% and a temperature increase of 2.5 °C by 205012. The corresponding higher water demand for irrigation would be exacerbated by less rainfall for crops, further increasing water demand for irrigation.

The organizational learning gained by ABHOER is expected to sustain beyond the project –temporally and spatially– since the Research and Planning Department (Direction de Recherche et Planification des Eaux or DRPE) is on track to institute CRA as a standard component of the PDAIRE process. ABHOER has de facto completed the last stage of the CRA after the closing date. This last stage consists in analyzing, among others, the extent to which the measures that are envisaged under the current PDAIRE (e.g. shifting use from groundwater to surface water, using sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation to increase efficiency) could limit the overexploitation of vulnerable parts of the Tadla aquifer under to the identified future run-off changes and increased water demands as per the selected climate scenarios. The analysis utilizes the outputs of the water resource system modeling (RIBASIM) to refine the identification of climate resilient adaptation measures considering the potential future variations of runoff, as well as other factors such as expansion of irrigation, uncertainties of investment costs and timing. ABHOER started this analysis a few weeks before project closing date and plans to complete it with the full spectrum of available options as part of the preparation of the next PDAIRE, and as a matter of routine going forward, as directed by DPRE.

In fact, DRPE has formally, on September 29, 2017, instructed all ABHs in the country to start the preparation of the next PDAIRE process and to include CRA analyses in conjunction with the existing RIBASIM. It has recently contracted out13 the RIBASIM models (hydrological system modeling) and climate assessment for two river basins, namely Loukos, Sebou and Bouregreg, to evaluate the potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and it has recently launched a new tender for the modeling climate assessment of the Tensift basin. The terms of reference of this study are aligned with the CRA methodology used by the project for the Oum Er Rbia Basin. As an ongoing process, the full operationalization of the acquired knowledge will entail the implementation of key priority measures identified to counter the projected over-exploitation and unavailability of groundwater, improve the management of the available surface water, and conduct related studies including climate stress tests of water resources development infrastructure at the basin level.

The practical application and involvement of ABHOER staff in the CRA exercise supported by two Moroccan consulting firms (specialized in water resources system modeling and groundwater management) was reinforced by ongoing support and interactions with experts recruited by the Bank and ABHOER, who participated in missions and presented recent research at workshops (under Component 1: an international RIBASIM expert, an international hydrologist/CRA expert, a national hydrologist, and an international RIBASIM modeling expert; and

12 Rainfall and temperature projections in Morocco vary according to the model used (Global Circulation Models or GCM). Most CMIP5 models project between 0% and 40% decrease in precipitation by 2050. On average, GCM models indicate a 20% decrease in rainfall and a temperature increase of 2.5 °C by 2050. 13 DRPE and ABHs are organized to share the responsibility of conducting the river basin modeling, at the national level (or cross-basin level), and at the basin level, respectively. They use the same RIBASIM models for coordination purposes.

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under Component 2: an expert from the International Water Management Institute (IWMI, Sri Lanka). An expert from the French agricultural research organization (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement or CIRAD, France) also presented at a workshop.

Knowledge sharing and inclusion

The findings of the assessment were documented and shared among all concerned parties. In addition, although the national meteorology department is not listed in the inter-ministerial circular as a participant in the formal process for developing groundwater contracts, the project team considered DMN a key actor given the need of introducing climate change and climate risk assessment in the PDAIRE process. Its active support and approval of the CRA methodology under Component 1, has anchored such collaboration for future CRA studies and climate resilient water resources development planning in Morocco, which is considered a major achievement of the project.

Women participation was notable in the sensitization activities for increased women participation in water at the farm level. Under Component 1, 24% of training participants were women, and under Component 2, about 6% of stakeholder workshops were women.

The close involvement and ongoing communication with DRPE was fundamental to harmonize the exercise with similar activities in the rest of the country. Conscious of this, immediately following project closing date, ABHOER shared all the knowledge materials produced under the project with DRPE who in turn initiated the mainstreaming of the CRA methodology in other basin agencies through training. DRPE also joined all the workshops and participated in the wrap-up of all supervision missions.

The participation of institutional actors in the preparation studies and all subsequent consultations have stimulated the general acceptation of the new approach for incorporating climate risk assessment in the basin- wide water resources planning and groundwater management processes. It is worth noting that while the development of the new Water Law 36-15 started much earlier, it was published during the period of the project’s implementation and contains clear references to climate change, hydro-meteorological data collection, water resources development planning, and participatory groundwater management through groundwater contracts (see Annex 4.2), thereby making it progressive in terms of integrated water resources management.

Intermediate indicator #2

The intermediary indicator #2 corresponding to “Component 2 “Inclusive design and establishment of groundwater management contracts in the Oum Er Rbia Basin” was “Number of stakeholders expressing intention to sign groundwater management contracts once finalized”. Component 2 financed several missions, studies, modeling and drafting groundwater contracts. Farmer representation was very high through the participation of the regional Chamber of Agriculture (Chambre régionale d’agriculture de Beni-Mellal-Khénifra) and the national federation of agriculture water user associations (Fédération des Associations d’usagers des eaux agricoles or AUEA)14, altogether representing 7,000 farmers, an intensive engagement effort that set a model for future “social engineering”. Significant efforts were made to ensure the buy-in by the farmers who will be involved in the implementation of the local contracts, to increase their awareness of the problems and their willingness to collectively restrict groundwater use for irrigation. Through both the preliminary surveys for the preparation of the groundwater contract and the workshops, the

14 Sixty-four associations are members of the federation.

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consulting firm and ABHOER reached 7,000 people15 across 26 communes, that included water users, irrigation workers, farmers’ dependents, and local officials. Through the inventory, 2,610 farms and 3,060 wells (corresponding to an average of 1.7 well per farm) were registered and the hydrogeologic model incorporated these 3,060 wells, and also wells that are within the Large-scale Irrigation perimeters (LSIs or “grands périmètres irrigués”) managed by Tadla’s ORMVA (ORMVAT) (12,000), corresponding to about 13,000 groundwater users altogether. The census also recorded withdrawals from non-farm users. Finally, consultations included communes that are administratively located within the boundaries of the Tadla watershed, and in which many farmers are elected members of the board, as an additional means to reach all the farmers in the basin.16

The project focused on farmers who only rely on deep groundwater for irrigation, using private wells, and who represent about 40% of all farmers in Oum Er Rbia (441,000 hectares). The project focused on farmers since, as noted, agriculture uses over 90% of water resources of the basin. Within that category of users, the project focused on those farmers that are outside the LSIs – the latter makes conjunctive use of surface water (conveyed from dams, reservoirs and rivers) and, mostly when the need arises (e.g. intermittent service, severe drought), dig shallow wells that predominantly tap phreatic groundwater (which is often recharged from irrigation flows), hence reducing their pumping costs. Importantly, the former (farmers outside the LSIs) is made of individuals who form a more fragmented group which ABHOER had historically, found, difficult to sensitize on groundwater governance. It is also important to note that other water users were involved in the consultations to ensure a broad consensus on the problems, scenarios and mitigation actions to include in the framework management contract (again, members of this last group are typically more organized (for example, the urban water service providers managed by ONEE and the industrials under the Ministry of Industry, Investment, Commerce and Digital Economy). Such broad consensus being an essential step laying the ground for, later, organizing actors to implement local contracts in hop spots.

Key institutional actors included: DRPE staff, ORMVAT, DMN, as well as academia.

Finally, ABHOER ensured that the project was guided by a fair representation of actors. To this end, it formed a Steering Committee which was composed of representatives of the organizations specified in the inter-ministerial circular. These included the Governors of the concerned Provinces (Fkih Ben Saleh, Khouribga, Khenifra), the Presidents of the Regional Council of Beni Mellal, and of the Provincial Council of Azilal. It also included the representatives of non-farm water users including municipal services and industries. For ongoing monitoring, ABHOER likewise formed a smaller dedicated committee which also represented various actors,17 and which met two times during implementation.

In terms of beneficiaries, the project reached the actors identified at appraisal. The primary beneficiaries of the technical assistance and capacity building provided by the project for climate risk assessment and developing the framework for an inclusive groundwater management contract were the staff of ABHOER and DRPE. Under Component 1, ABHOER benefitted most directly from the formal training targeting its staff and from the application of the CRA methodology with support from the consulting firms and the Bank team. ABHOER also benefitted much from Component 2, as both leader and facilitator.

The project document also cited ORMVAT as primary beneficiary. Eventually, ORMVAT benefited indirectly through the basin-wide level consultations under Component 2, and by participating in Component 1 workshops.

15 While the formulation of the indicator “number of stakeholders expressing intention to sign…” could have been changed (through project restructuring), this formulation did not affect the achievement of the outcome. 16 Due to the generic nature of the framework contract, communes are not listed as signatories. 17 The smaller committee was composed of water users (Associations des Usagers des Eaux (AUE), Associations des Usagers des Eaux à Usages Agricoles (AUEA), ORMVA and farmer associations.

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The secondary beneficiaries identified were the users of deep groundwater aquifers in the Oum Er Rbia Basin. As mentioned, through the involvement of the Chamber of Agriculture in the consultations and workshops under Component 2, the project reached thousands of farmers who are using Tadla groundwater, including both the deep aquifers, and the shallow (phreatic) groundwater. And under Component 1, the project exposed through workshops, members of multiple government institutions to a modern methodology for climate risk assessment. This exposure is expected to serve with future planning of water resources development at various regional and government levels.

The project specifically targeted women, which the project document described as “increasingly involved [in water management and agriculture] in areas where male rural-to-urban migration18 is occurring”. About 55 women participated in the formal training, corresponding to 24% of training participants. In the stakeholder workshops, about 6% of the participants were women. The goal was to increase women awareness on water management, although, in Morocco, women do not usually participate in the direct management of water resources at the farm level, they are actively involved in agriculture activities (planting, monitoring) and in related income generating activities (through cooperatives).

Two additional key actors, DRPE and DMN, played strong roles:

 Recognizing that DRPE would be the main institution going forward to ensure the long-term dialogue on groundwater sustainability and that similar work can be undertaken in all basins in the future, the team kept DREP constantly informed of all project activities. In addition, DRPE played a critical role during implementation of the project by coordinating with other Ministries such as the Ministry of Agriculture.

 To support the effective introduction of climate risks in the preparation of groundwater and surface water management plans, the Bank team proposed a new collaboration with DMN to conduct the analysis of a large ensemble of climate projections for the 21st century and historical meteorological data, such that its potential impacts on water availability at the basin scale could be assessed by the hydrologists. This analysis of climate projections was contracted to DMN through project funds.

Overall Outcome Rating

The overall outcome is satisfactory.

Future monitoring of groundwater status was established through discussions with stakeholders. The monitoring mechanisms and indicators accounting for the groundwater situation are included in the framework contract. Likewise, a risk management approach is embedded in Water Law 36-15 whereby water basin agencies, in case of drought and water deficit, must establish a monitoring system of the hydrological situation through hydrological and climate indicators (Section 2, Articles 124 to 128, see Annex 4.2). The project supported this requirement through an update of the groundwater modeling of the Tadla system, tested sensitivities for climate change, and initiated the coupling of Tadla groundwater model and the RIBASIM surface water system model, as an innovation.

18 Rural-to-urban migration is significant in Morocco. According to World Bank statistics the total population of Morocco was 34.4 million in 2015 (http://data.worldbank.org/country/morocco), at an overall growth rate of 1.35% per year. However, the rural population had become stagnant at 13.7 million (40% of the total population), while the urban population of 20.7 million (60%) increased in 2015 at a rate of 2.2%/year.

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The project prioritized governance. Building on earlier experiences with framework groundwater management contracts in the two basins of Souss-Massa and in Saïss,19 the project focused on enhanced governance to reverse the top-down, control-driven approach. The latter has generally failed to ensure the sustainability of groundwater in Morocco, particularly the deepest aquifers, because users confronted with limited access to a reliable source of surface water tend to compensate this unreliable access by tapping into groundwater (bearing the pumping costs and adding pressure to the already overexploited aquifers).20 The emphasis on a bottom-up approach made it possible21 to scale-up the growing water stewardship evident in the Water Law and at the local government and river basin levels combined with regulatory measures22 and the water police. The outcome achieved has contributed to a new paradigm whereby farmers would ultimately plan their consumption jointly and adapt their productions and crops accordingly. Component 1 in particular, shifted the incentives for the stakeholders by providing them with information on the current and future water availability under different scenarios of use (reduction, no change, or increase). Furthermore, the project laid the basis for further thinking about the importance of setting a timeframe for the controlled exploitation of groundwater and for the implementation of risk-reduction options.

Obtaining information from water users and other stakeholders reinforced the collective sense of accountability in managing groundwater. The project actively sought bottom-up feedback on adaptation options to reduce the risk that groundwater becomes unavailable in the future (for example in case of a deterioration of the quality of water).

The new way to conduct basin-level planning and the new cross-scale linkages reconciled policy principles with local level action. The project was designed to facilitate discussions with all parties about the problems and opportunities for future groundwater management. In the past, binding regulatory limits (e.g. depth targets, pumping permits, caps on groundwater use, rights transfers) produced limited results. By contrast, through the project, all institutional actors and water users are now well informed about the groundwater conditions in the basin and are fully aware of the risks of groundwater over-exploitation due to the current abstraction trends. Despite the existing diverging views on some issues (e.g. the need for greater coherence between the agriculture ministry that encourages the expansion of irrigation and the intensification of production, and the strategy of the water ministry for reducing groundwater use), this consensus for a common agreement to be mutually enforced provides a basis for the commitment of all actors to design specific groundwater contracts in the most sensitive areas of the basin which would serve the collective interest. Furthermore, ABHOER has made particularly proactive steps to anchor this process in its prevailing legal administrative context. For example, despite the absence of a perceived imminent groundwater crisis, it managed largely through the CRA projections to secure support from the Region (under the Interior line ministry). The chairing by the elected regional authority, the Wali, of one workshop (as well as the post- implementation workshop in September 2017) is a major signal for institutional coordination at the regional

19 The two experiences of Souss-Massa and Le Saïs in Morocco, analyzed in the project preparation study, show that the notion of a groundwater contract is context specific. In the case of Souss-Massa, the approach was led by the political authorities at the regional level pushing for a contractual process with agriculture users (organized in user associations) to limit the exploitation of the resource, the framework contract (signed in 2006) designed as a tool for stopping the expansion of irrigation areas, and limiting groundwater overexploitation. the ABH for the Souss-Massa basin provided authorization for groundwater abstraction, well and borehole drilling, and other infrastructure using water from the public domain. 20 An inventory of wells of Tadla’s deep aquifers conducted during project preparation recorded that 70% of wells were drilled between 1990 and 2015, and 85% were unauthorized. Most of the pumping is from the Eocene aquifer (80%) and butane gas is the main pumping energy source. 21 The bottom-up approach is broadly based on the « adaptive management » concept that emphasizes the evolution of institutions to address change, whereby “institutional arrangements are well matched to the physical and social features of the water setting,” and there exist complementary and supportive relations among organizations and governments operating at different scales » (Schlager lopez-Gunn, 2006). 22 Regulatory tools require water users to take certain actions, although they do not provide direct incentives, financial or otherwise, for water users, for example metering of wells (whether self-reported or monitored).

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level. Provided it sustains, this can serve as a model for other basins as they engage in local level planning and development.

A client-driven establishment of groundwater governance at the basin level has more likelihood to scale-up fast. While reversing the inclination of farmers to ignore water allocations and instead collaborate and respect the allocations is a long-term process, which relies on the effective understanding of drivers and sustained behavior changes of many actors (as demonstrated in other parts of the world, e.g. Beauce, France where the groundwater contract took 13 years to be established; Mancha, Spain), the identification through consultations of hot spots in the basin for immediate application of the framework contract signals the likelihood for sustained momentum.

In sum, the project has largely contributed to putting groundwater resources and their role in mitigating the impacts of increasing climatic variability and change at center-stage in Morocco.

Other Outcomes and Impacts

This ICR identifies indirect but critical linkages and impacts of the project in four areas: institutional, sector, country and regional, and operational levels, as follows:

 Institutional level impacts: ABHOER emerged as a champion of a new way of improving groundwater management, and DRPE endorsed the inclusive governance approach for managing groundwater. As official owner of the RIBASIM water resources system model and driver of the PDAIRE process, DRPE has become de facto “responsible” to mainstream the CRA methodology in other basin agencies. Soon after the project closing date, DRPE requested the same firm who delivered the model under the project to train other ABHs (namely Sebou, Bouregreg, Loukkos, Ziz Guir Ghéris, Moulouya, Tensift, Souss Massa Daraa, and Laayoune) in using the CRA methodology. This expanded training was funded by the Belgium cooperation (Coopération Technique Belge). Another positive institutional impact is the role played by the DPRE at the Secretariat de l’Eau as interface between ministries. This role would serve future engagement beyond the project scope as the agriculture and water sectors pursue collaborative approaches to manage groundwater in other basins. Finally, consultations chaired by the Wali signaled ownership of the region for future local development and planning.

 Sector level impact: The project stimulated the overall sector dialogue on integrated water resources governance, bringing to the forefront water resources management, irrigation and climate change as an urgent priority, to be addressed in an integrated manner and through an ongoing inclusive endeavor. As one example of this dialogue, building on the government’s clear attention to this issue, the Bank conducted an economic study in 2016 (Morocco Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), pages 67-71) that highlights the dimension of “intangible capital” of groundwater resources that need to be managed, coinciding with the timing of the project. The study was widely disseminated in Morocco and reinforced the growing sense of urgency for a better water resources stewardship.

As mentioned, the new Water Law mentions the consideration of climate change in the management of water resources, de facto making the CRA tool an integral part of the broader planning process at the basin level. ABHOER has launched this process for the OER basin, immediately following the project closing date. The Water Law also includes groundwater management contracts (Article 115) as the basis for the accountability of local water users in the management and control of water use. Finally, ABHOER is making efforts to communicate widely the groundwater management approach. It will present the framework

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contract and CRA approach at the 6th edition of the international congress on water, waste and the environment which will taking place in Beni Mellal on December 12-15, 2017.

 Country and regional level impact: The project contributed to long-term joint efforts of the government and the Bank to develop governance mechanisms for a more sustainable use of groundwater resources. It was fully aligned with the Morocco Country Partnership Strategy 2014-2017 which mentions the establishment of three groundwater management contracts as a target.23 This linkage proved robust during implementation, while aligning with the 2012 Bank framework for engagement in the MENA region on governance and social inclusion. More recently, the new Systematic Country Diagnostic for Morocco (under preparation) stresses the importance of sound groundwater management, and the urgency to improve it. Overall, the project supported the inclusive green growth agenda in Morocco through the delivery of a socially inclusive methodology. Also, the global climate change debate under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the political visibility given by the Presidency of Morocco for the twenty second meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP22) which focused on the Paris Agreement and took place on November 7-18, 2016 in Marrakesh gave further impetus to the project, including labeling of the two workshops at ABHOER’s headquarters as “pre-COP22” (in October 2016) and “post- COP22” (in May 2017). In the same year, other key climate-related initiatives were launched such as the creation of the Conseil Supérieur de l’Eau et du Climat (CSEC), and on the Bank’s side, a technical assistance for supporting “the Government of Morocco in the implementation of its [Nationally Determined Contribution] NDC in selected sectors (P159288) was approved in 2017.

 Linkages with Bank irrigation projects. This project builds on the long-standing collaboration between the government and the Bank in the irrigation sector in the framework of the PNEEI through two projects with similar design, representing the first and second phase, respectively, of support to the PNEEI: the Oum er Rbia Basin Irrigated Agriculture Modernization Project ($70 million loan; 2010-2017) and the Large-Scale Irrigation Modernization Project ($150 million loan; 2015-2022). Overall, the projects target the rehabilitation of 50,000 hectares in public schemes to the benefit of 15,000 farmers. As mentioned above, these farmers use surface water derived from dams and distributed by the ORMVAs to irrigate, and use groundwater only as a way to compensate for irregular water service. The modernization of the network has resulted in improved service of surface water, and consequently reduced need for farmers to tap into groundwater. The results of the first areas modernized show that, among the farmers using groundwater prior to the modernization of the network, 80% reduced their use of groundwater, and half of those stopped using groundwater altogether.

 Linkages with other donors. In terms of donor coordination, positive synergies already exist thanks to a “division of labor” among partners in the basin, and the project ensured alignment with other initiatives. On the one hand, the French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement or AFD) has been supporting Morocco with a climate adaptation project (Projet d’adaptation de l’agriculture au changement climatique au Maghreb, ACCAGRIMAG) which includes an analysis of climate risk in agriculture. On the other hand, in 2013, the European Union (EU) started a long-term technical assistance «Appui en matière d’adaptation des modalités de gestion des ressources en eau face au changement climatique » with the main objectives to make experiences and methodologies used by the EU member countries available to Morocco and to help anchor CRA methodologies in the PDAIRE process.24 The EU support focuses on

23 “aquifers (nappes) in which groundwater abstraction is regulated by an aquifer agreement among ‘large’ water consumers (Baseline: 1 (2013), Target: 3 (2017)”. 24 « Renforcement des capacités techniques et institutionnelles de gestion de la pénurie d’eau, en matière, notamment, de gestion des ressources en eau face au changement climatique en s’appuyant sur les exigences de l’Acquis et des bonnes pratiques européennes. »

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methods for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a pilot water basin (Loukkos) and for determining modalities and institutional arrangements for groundwater management and allocation. Finally, an integrated water management program (Appui à la Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau or AGIRE) is funded by GIZ.

Finally, replicable best practices can be identified as follows:

 The hypothesis that groundwater must be managed prudently in the broader context of the management of water resources, and through inclusivity, remains valid, and led to the achievement of the development objective and overall outcome. The focus on process was not entirely new in Morocco but the appropriation of the fact that groundwater-related risks are real by institutional actors, government authorities and local users, is a major step. In this respect, the analysis of the political economy of groundwater use (which was done as part of project preparation) could be replicated in other basins and possibly other countries that share the goal of stabilizing groundwater withdrawals and ensuring water security.

 In the Bank, other teams are following similar principles, for example, increasingly implementing water accounting as an added value for irrigation projects to improve the sustainability of water resources. Specific funds from the main Water Global Practice trust-fund and the Water in Agriculture Global Solutions Group have been set aside to support these studies.

 It is also worth noting that engaging farmers in the process of preparing the groundwater contract is something that has mobilized ABHOER substantively during the project, and should be supported further as specific contracts unfold, as well as in other initiatives in Morocco.

 As the stakeholder mapping undertaken during project preparation had highlighted that the framework and the identification of hot spots would most likely lead to successful outcomes, the team decided to use a flexible (“agile”), principle-based rather than prescriptive language in the project document to allow the preparation of a framework contract to be able to complete all activities within 18 months.

III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME

Considering the completion on time of all the deliverables, corresponding to a total period of 18 months (from effectiveness to closing), the effectiveness and efficiency of implementation is deemed high.

It is notable that while the Director of ABHOER changed twice, the work continued and there was not change in design or speed of implementation. The technical focal point and administrative focal point helped keeping the pace of implementation despite the changes of the director of the agency.

At the outset, there was a logical link between the two components. Component 1 focused on surface water and the RIBASIM model, and provided the boundary conditions for hydro-geological modeling under Component 2. As a special performance to show their ability beyond a “strict implementing agency” role, ABHOER organized meetings among the consulting firms and with stakeholders to discuss the status of the deep aquifers and the model’s

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outputs for climate and groundwater performance scenarios.25 This in turn informed the substantive content of the groundwater management contract, ensured its buy-in, and will in the future serve its evaluation through monitoring indicators. Ultimately, as per the CRA methodology, the adaptation options identified as priority measures under the groundwater management contract (investments under Axis 1) must be tested for climate resilience and robustness, and this test will be done as part of the preparation of the 2018 PDAIRE. In this sense, as ABHOER states, “the framework contract is a component of the PDAIRE”.

In terms of implementation, the Steering Committee created by ABHOER was effective. The Steering Committee met at the kick-off of the project to validate the methodology, indicators and process in conformity with the inter- ministerial circular and with activities in other water basins under DRPE’s responsibility. The Committee also met at the end of the project, as well as two months after the closing date, to approve the framework contract. For ongoing monitoring, ABHOER supervised the consulting firms, and a smaller dedicated committee - composed of water users (Associations des Usagers des Eaux (AUE), Associations des Usagers des Eaux à Usages Agricoles (AUEA), ORMVA and farmer associations – was also set up, which met two times during implementation.

ABHOER’s commitment was also visible through the timely achievement of the purpose of the grant, efficacy with procuring the consulting firms, and effective management of the firm contracts to ensure all deliverables were provided on time and with quality.

In addition to the conducive timing already cited (COP22), a compelling incentive for the fast pace of implementation was the fact that the groundwater contract was a target indicator to be achieved by September 2017 under the Bank’s Green Growth DPL.

As an important factor, the proactive preparation of Component 2, in particular the preparation study that defined the modality for implementing the inter-ministerial circular in the context of the deep aquifer in Tadla, contributed to the successful outcome. The study produced a mapping of stakeholders in Oum Er Rbia, revealing a wide range of dynamic interrelations between water users in the basin, including informal water trading (e.g. in kind) among producers and users in certain vulnerable areas of the basin (see also Boudjellal et al., 2011). The study also made recommendations on the form, possible outline and modalities of implementation for the contract. These recommendations – notably the emphasis on inclusive consultations— were crucial inputs for the terms of reference of the consulting firm in charge of facilitating the drafting of the contract. In sum, although the preparation time appears long (12 months), its relevance and quality helped the grant achieve the expected results on time.

In terms of economy, it is noted that the contract amount for the consulting firm was lower than the estimated budget ($413,932 against $580,000), resulting in cost savings that allowed to finance the two additional activities mentioned above.

Ultimately, the relevance of the project can be considered as an important success factor, addressing two major issues: dialogue and climate change:

- By establishing the long-term sustainable groundwater availability under possible climate scenarios, the project resulted in a robust understanding of the dynamics of the Tadla groundwater system. From a technical and scientific perspective, Component 1 (CRA) focused on the potential impacts of climate change

25 The identified basin performance indicators were: volumes of water available for drinking use, irrigation, industry, hydroelectricity production, groundwater recharge, and environmental flows, and return on investments for agriculture economy.

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on the use of surface water for irrigation and hydro-energy generation, whereby surface water shortages invoke subsequent groundwater overexploitation, particularly when groundwater recharge is also reduced when precipitation and surface water irrigation reduce. The government is looking at groundwater management (through contracts) to improve the overall management and the project was designed to help this effort to make the groundwater management contract for Tadla an effective tool for dialogue and enforcement of agreed decision to reduce the groundwater overuse.

- Based on the understanding that climate change modifies groundwater availability through reduced recharge during drought years, and increases groundwater demands resulting from reduced surface water availability in reservoirs, the project tackled the “climate gap”. While previous studies focused on downscaling of projected climate changes rather than on the assessment of climate risks and on adaptation decisions, the CRA focused on the potential range of impacts of climate change on water resources availability and subsequently on the impacts of reduced availability of water resources on basin performance indicators, such as irrigation or hydro-energy generation. Also, the previous groundwater modeling (2008) relied on groundwater abstractions based on user declarations rather than on assessments of actual pumping, underestimating groundwater abstractions and thus overestimating the actual water storage in the aquifer. This project focused on re-evaluating historic groundwater abstractions based on an assessment of actual pumping through surveys and consultations with farmers, in order to update the groundwater modeling by taking into account actual supplies and demands. The updating produced improved rainfall-recharge relationships, while climate scenarios were introduced to study the future behavior or potential of the aquifers.

IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

In addition to the strong design, candor in reporting and agility already discussed, the project team leveraged several means to increase the effectiveness of the preparation phase and later, its implementation support:

 Creating a multi-disciplinary core team (comprising engineers, hydrogeologists, climate and hydrology experts, economists, social experts, and a water and environment lawyer), with three key team members based in Rabat, ensuring that the team was represented in key meetings and could follow-up on agreed actions.  Holding monthly audio meetings to check on progress.  Inviting external experts and consultants to participate in missions (e.g. a joint-workshop with the energy Global Practice on solar pumping in Rabat) to share international experiences, improving the positive influence of the Bank support.  Tapping trust funds from the Water Global Practice to leverage the Bank contribution to the groundwater governance.  Combined missions with other projects.  Working closely with other ongoing Bank projects, technical assistance, Global Solutions Groups, and studies (Green Growth DPL, irrigation, water and sanitation, Integrated Urban Water Management, Water Scarce Cities Initiative).

For Bank staff costs, $50,000 were disbursed over five missions (one for the preparation in December 2015, and four for the supervision in February 2016, May 2016, February 2017, and May 2017). This amounts to only 6.6% of the total grant amount. It is worth mentioning that the nature of the project focusing on governance and behavior change typically requires a high level of interactions.

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In terms of safeguard compliance, the project document states that the project belongs to category C based on the nature of activities financed by the grant, namely assessments, consultations and training, not involving any physical intervention or triggering any safeguards policy. This category proved accurate and was confirmed during implementation with no safeguard issues arising.

In terms of risk to the development outcome, the two main risks identified relate to (i) the possibility of limited follow-up activities at the basin level, and (ii) the failure to collect and update hydro-meteorological data in various river basins.

(i) Local contracts. During the project, stakeholders agreed that smaller size contracts for groups of farmers in the three identified hot spots (corresponding to 200-500 users in about 6,000 hectares of irrigation) are the next logical step since the framework contract does not presently involve the final users that will actually be responsible for managing the groundwater in the basin.26 There is a risk that the framework contract is not used to guide these local contracts.27 Importantly, private farmers engagement and their perception of the risks can only be confirmed when these local contracts will be implemented and the number of water users would be reduced (or irrigation areas limited). In the months preceding the closing date the team encouraged ABHOER to launch the preparation of specific contracts in two hot spots (Ouled Youssef and Beni Chagdal, among seven critical zones), which were validated by all parties. Expecting that this would result in “more tangible” results by the closing date, it supported ABHOER to engage the initial steps in organizing farmers into user associations to be ready to engage ABHOER and to draft an action plan. The risk that the local contracts are not taken further is considerably attenuated by the supportive institutional environment as well as by evidence of concrete actions by ABHOER. In particular, the existence of Water Law 36-15 and the 2013 circular mitigate this risk. Furthermore, as of November 2017, not only has ABHOER prepared the above two hot spot projects to be implemented in 2018, but it plans to submit three additional local contracts as proposals to the water ministry. Limited staff and resources may make the social engineering required to prepare these contracts difficult to implement without external technical assistance. However, ABHOER has stated it wants “to honor its responsibilities” and use its own budget to collect user views, conduct awareness activities, and prepare a roadmap for the organization of farmers in user associations in order to engage with the local authorities and the ORMVAT. Another mitigation measure could be to continue supporting the agency through a follow-up project. The Bank has started to develop an initial concept for such project in the context of a larger Maghreb initiative on groundwater.

(ii) National level hydro-meteorological data and information collection.28 Given the new water law, DRPE and ABHs have a strong mandate to improve seasonal planning of agriculture and irrigation and reduce the overexploitation of groundwater resources, considering inter-sectoral interests in water, climate trends and variability impacts on water resources availability. Failure to reinforce the monitoring system for detecting quantitative and qualitative trends of water resources, especially in the zones where withdrawals are already acute needs to be anticipated and addressed accordingly. Measures include the reinforcement of surface water monitoring networks and piezometer network to ensure better data collection and make sure

26 Similarly, the Souss Massa framework contract concerns the entire aquifer but has not been scaled down to specific contract, although priority themes such as water economy in the agriculture sector, have been the subject of specific conventions. 27 In line with a hot spot approach whereby farmers, governments and other stakeholders all play a role in responding to water risks in hotspot locations (OECD. 2017. Water Risk Hotspots for Agriculture, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264279551-en). 28 Globally, arid and semi-arid areas face the greatest pressures to deliver and manage freshwater resources. Challenges facing water managers in these areas include population growth, food security, salinity increases and pollution from various sources. Superimposed on these pressures, climate change is expected to increase water scarcity and the frequency of floods and droughts in many arid and semi-arid areas. Accurately assessing and managing the available and renewable water resources is more difficult in semi-arid regions, compared with water-rich countries: the science base is limited, data are scarce and humid zone experience is inappropriate.

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that reliable and quality data can be used for future CRA exercises in all basins.

V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS The grant offers valuable learning with respect to the design and implementation of strategies, investments and incentives for groundwater management and irrigation.

Lesson 1. A long-term vision, strong evidence, demand-driven approach and champions are requisite conditions for the success of technically innovative and institutionally complex interventions for water resource management, such as the establishment of groundwater management contracts under conditions of (likely) severe future climate changes. They also help counter exogeneous factors.

 Institutionally, groundwater governance and regulation are generally complicated, with multiple, often unorganized, actors, and misaligned incentives,29 but progress can be made through a programmatic and demand-driven approach. The inclusion of key stakeholder groups in the CRA and drafting process of the contract from the start was fundamental for establishing long term support (including through the inclusive Steering Committee). The contract was envisaged as a first step in a long-term process to stabilize the groundwater situation. This vision for sustainable water resources development, integrated river basin planning, conjunctive use of surface water and ground water, and reversal of groundwater overexploitation, strongly supported at the central level by DRPE and at the basin level by ABHOER, can spearhead a paradigm shift despite the complexity. The active role of these actors, as well as the Secretariat d’Etat charge de l’Eau and the national meteorology agency for the take-up in other basins is essential. It is also exemplary (and hopefully a model for other basins) that ABHOER achieved to work closely with the Head of the Region and built their ownership, opening the conversation around groundwater depletion into the local planning agenda. Other countries and states around the world are taking similar steps for cross-scale linkages (e.g. Nebraska, USA, India).

 As the PDAIRE processes progress in other basins, the involvement of ORMVAs will remain essential. It would possibly need stronger engagement as what was piloted in Tadla to sustain collaborative approaches to manage groundwater. Generally, the realization by farmers (represented as elected people in communes) that groundwater needs precise monitoring and sustainable management arises in drought situations (such as an anticipated drought crisis in Tadla in 2008) since this affects water availability for irrigation, and is directly perceived as a major economic risk. This in turn makes apparent the strategic nature of deep groundwater (including for daily human consumption) and contributes to the support from direct users to engage in any contractual process.

 In the absence of the sense of urgency linked to a drought event, the project opted to document and share with all actors key physical conditions (including through exposure to

29 « Two results follow which make governance difficult. The first is that there is no impetus for institutional development because the true scarcity—and thus a value in management– may not be perceived until problems are well underway. The second is that the lag between problem onset and perception may mean that individuals and governments have continued to invest in the resource even after scarcity problems have begun, resulting in those with vested interests who may struggle to continue use, even if it eventually means the end of the resource » (Giordano, M. 2009. Global groundwater? Issues and solutions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 153-178.).

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international experts), robust projections of flow risks for pre-agreed climate change scenarios and basin performance indicators, past groundwater management experiences in Morocco and other regions where groundwater resources are highly vulnerable to climate change impact, as well as a participatory analysis of the roles and responsibilities of the array of stakeholders in Tadla, in order to justify the objectives, design and approach. In turn, this created ownership by farmers as key actors for future follow-up. The approach was particularly relevant in a context of low credibility of formal rules for groundwater management, which had until now weakened the application of the law (e.g. authorizations, level of withdrawals, ineffective monitoring and sanctions, perverse incentives).

Lesson 2. Building trust is essential for behavior change and concrete action.

 Groundwater management requires asking people to change what they do in a way that has an actual or perceived (negative) financial impact. Thus, to influence water user behavior, groundwater management should rely upon various interdependent tools rather than a single policy or regulation, including regulatory tools, incentive-based tools (e.g. taxes, fees, credit-based systems), supply augmentation, and education and outreach. This requires establishing trust with concerned actors in a fair system that will allow them to use a sustainable amount of groundwater that supports their livelihood over the long-term. The project made a significant step in preparing a framework contract, intentionally as a first step to mobilize stakeholders. Stakeholder engagement was meaningful, and built trust at the early stages. As mentioned, using data-driven groundwater models to illustrate current groundwater conditions and simulate future impacts created additional evidence and conveyed how hot spot areas and farms could be impacted by future groundwater declines. This educational approach reinforced the credibility of users in ABHOER and DRPE, enhanced project ownership, and enabled users to understand the connection between the goals of framework contract and their individual situation, i.e. farmers who rely on groundwater to maintain their livelihood.

 As immediate next step, since the framework contract is not sufficient in itself for managing groundwater at the local level, the organization of groups of private farmers into user associations (as launched by ABHOER) for the five hot spots identified, that are accountable towards their members and transparent, is critical for the implementation of the principles, activities, and adaptation measures identified in the framework contract. For those future contracts, the intended signatories will be the presidents of the user associations.

Lesson 3. Using reliable data is key for transparency and decision making, but realistic objectives and participation should be set.

Gathering and analyzing water resources data is essential for effective water management. Sufficient data on water level and water use will remain essential to inform the updated CRA and its application by other ABHs, in line with the planning and management policies at the regional level. Making water use data publicly available will also ensure buy-in from users. In the Oum Er Rbia Basin, ABHOER has committed to invest its own resources for updating the future CRA results on its website in a new dedicated groundwater contract portal (“géo-portail”) which is publicly accessible. However, data collection can be costly, and in some cases (e.g. well meters) resisted by some

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users.30 Once the Tadla framework contract is implemented —and for other basins, once they have established their own framework and specific contracts—, it would be effective to identify specific issues that need to be addressed in hot spots through participatory surveys in those sites. This way, realistic objectives and data requirements can be set for the specific contracts, and concrete collaborations identified, in particular with DMN, as was done in the Oum Er Rbia, to conduct meteorological analysis and provide the necessary inputs to apply the CRA methodology.

Lesson 4. Building consciousness that local groundwater management is a component of the wider basin planning is possible if grounded on strong evidence and shared knowledge.

While the project focused on two aquifers in Tadla, it constantly highlighted the linkage with the wider basin context. In several countries affected by groundwater overexploitation, there is a growing understanding that on-farm savings are not basin savings nor “real” water savings”,31 and in particular the notion that surface water allocations for the chosen aquifer areas depend on the overall allocation rules for the basin. As ABHOER stated, “the framework contract is a component of the PDAIRE”. The project demonstrated that accessible evidence, data and information generated for and by the users can catalyze their perception of the problems related to deep aquifers and instill a consciousness of larger issues. Through the CRA exercise, actors have realized that future reduced precipitation would lead to reduced availability of surface water for irrigation and simultaneously higher crop water requirements.

Lesson 5. Once a critical milestone has been reached, momentum must continue. Ongoing support, including financial and human resources and innovations, are essential for implementation to materialize, and for monitoring and enforcement to sustain.

While the groundwater contract provides incentives for the respect of regulatory requirements (e.g. detecting noncompliance, enforcement measures), it is important that the parties stay committed to collectively implement and deploy the means for monitoring the groundwater status to avoid economic, financial, environmental, and social costs. In addition to preparing the identified local contracts, routine meter inspection, updating of the CRA and models, improvement of monitoring networks, and infrastructure development (e.g. to shift from groundwater use to surface water) will equally require ongoing technical support. For example, in California, the timeframe for establishing a sustainable groundwater system is set for 2040. To sustain such long-term vision, substantive efforts must build on the results of the project. Institutional and technological innovation could also be introduced, tested and scaled-up, for example new management approaches (e.g. performance- based contracts managed by DPRE) for the supervision of groundwater contracts, or for monitoring groundwater use by remote sensing. Promoting open data (e.g. publication of levels of groundwater) and citizen peer pressure could also be rolled-out as part of the means for maintaining participation and accountability in future groundwater management.

30 See above footnote, among many examples (e.g. "Texas landowners… have successfully avoided any legislative or judicial action intended to limit ground water pumpage.” (Norris, K. H. (1990). Stagnation of Texas Ground Water Law: A Political v. Environmental Stalemate, Mary's LJ, 22, 493).) 31 High losses due to low irrigation efficiencies are not necessarily losses at the basin scale, since these “losses” may percolate to the phreatic aquifer (recharge), or return to the river from the irrigation systems. Similarly, leakages from canals recharge groundwater, and are thus not lost per se

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The World Bank

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1. PDO Indicators

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The World Bank

Objective/Outcome: The development objective of the grant is to support the river basin agency of Oum Er Rbia in drafting an inclusive groundwater management contracts using participatory methods.

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion

The contract for the management of two overexploited aquifers in the Oum Er Rbia Basin (Yes/No) No Yes N/A Yes is drafted following a consultation process.

Comments (achievements against targets):  A groundwater management framework contract was drafted, covering multiple aquifers in the Tadla system (including deep ones), of which many are overexploited. The preparation of the contract was participatory.  Over 7,000 people participated in stakeholder consultations.  The quality and depth of engagement of the main institutional actors and water users in discussing the need to improve groundwater management and in developing the contract were substantive and resulted in the achievement of the PDO. Specific outputs and products have contributed to the PDO achievement:  Outputs: Introduction: (i) application of an up-to-date CRA methodology for river basins in Morocco; (ii) introduction of the adopted CRA methodology to other basin agencies is expected to materialize through DRPE in order to become part of the national PDAIRE process; and (iii) the development by multiple stakeholders of a framework contract for inclusive groundwater management.  Products: (i) Assessment of the impacts of potential future climate changes on the available water resources of the Oum Er Rbia Basin; (ii) a calibrated Water Resources System model of the Oum Er Rbia Basin to be used for the design of water resources infrastructure, analysis of climate change adaptation options and design of the PDAIRE; (iii) recalibration of the 2008 groundwater model for the Tadla groundwater system; (iv) determination of historic rainfall-recharge relationships; (v) establishment of long-term groundwater availability for different future climate scenarios, and the assessment of updated actual groundwater supplies and demand; (vi) preparation of a framework contract for groundwater management which was validated by all stakeholders.

A.2. Intermediate Results Indicators Component 1: Stakeholder involvement in selecting performance indicators for a climate risk assessment of water resources, including groundwater, in the Oum Er Rbia Basin

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Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion

ABH-OER/MEMEE staff is trained in the assessment of Existing climate and other downscaling risks, and training Improved knowledge on the management of (dynamic) of sessions and Text N/A Yes climate risk is shared with stakeholders Climate Change workshops are projections for the provided to basin stakeholders, which will include on average 15% females.

Comments (achievements against targets):  Impactful training. Technical staff from ABHOER and DMN were trained through two distinct formal sessions (May 2016) dedicated to the introduction of a CRA methodology to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on surface water resources availability and groundwater sustainability in the Oum Er Rbia Basin.  Learning by doing. ABHOER staff were closely involved in conducting the CRA. Synthesized future climate scenarios for 2050 were used in water resources system and hydro-geological modeling, in order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability and aquifer dynamics. The practical CRA application combined with the continuous support ensured effective uptake and organizational learning in ABHOER. Ongoing discussions were held with ABHOER staff about drought management to further highlight the vulnerability of irrigation and drinking water supplies in relation to climate change.  Inclusion. ABHOER organized stakeholder events where the findings of the analysis done under Component 1 were discussed. These events involved a wide range of parties, including institutional actors, and farmer organizations, namely, the regional chamber of agriculture and the national federation of agriculture water user associations, altogether representing 7,000 farmers. 24% of training participants were women. Outcome of the learning. A crucial outcome of the CRA assessment is the realization that groundwater is at severe risk according to the postulated (future drought) scenarios. Hence, even though the sense of immediate crisis may not be shared equally by all, all actors have understood the importance of managing the resource to secure its future availability.

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Component 2 - Inclusive design and establishment of groundwater contract management in the Oum Er Rbia Basin

Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion

The end value will be determined after the selection of the two aquifers for which there will be a groundwater Number of stakeholders expressing intention to management sign groundwater management contracts once Number contract. When N/A 7,000 finalized aquifers are determined the possibility of gender disaggregated indicator will be assessed.

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Comments (achievements against targets):  A groundwater framework contract was prepared and formally approved on September 27, 2017 by the Project Steering Committee. The minutes were shared with all participants and the Bank. The signing of the contract for five vulnerable aquifers by multiple stakeholders is planned for 2018.

 The process of drafting the groundwater management contract involved 7,000 farmers through the organizations cited above (regional chamber of agriculture and the national federation of agriculture water user associations).

 Significant efforts were made to ensure the buy-in by the local farmers who will be involved in the implementation of the subsequent local contracts, to increase their awareness of the problems and their willingness to collectively restrict groundwater use for irrigation.

 The contract contains an action plan for the parties to implement over the period 2018-2030 focusing on the following priorities: (i) mobilizing surface water resources in a way that reduces pressure on groundwater as a strategic resource, (ii) controlling water demand for agriculture without undermining agriculture as a key economic sector, (iii) protection of groundwater against pollution; and (iv) stakeholder awareness and communication on integrated and equitable water resource management. The contract was conceived as a tool for collective management by all concerned users, with provisions related to incentives and regulation. It is grounded in updated knowledge on the resource, its dynamics and uses taking into account climate risk.

 The contract contains priority interventions under nine axis: Axis 1 - Aménagements hydrauliques pour la conservation et la restauration des nappes; Axis 2 - Économie et valorisation de l’eau; Axis 3 - Contrôle des prélèvements dans les nappes et police des eaux; Axe 4 - Protection des ressources en eau souterraines contre la pollution à travers l’assainissement liquide et l’installation de dispositifs de traitement des eaux usées domestiques et industrielles; Axis 5 - Amélioration de la connaissance des nappes par la densification et renforcement du réseau de suivi et de surveillance de la piézométrie et de la qualité; Axis 6 - Développement de la recherche scientifique; Axis 7 - Renforcement de la sensibilisation et de la communication entre les différents intervenants pour une gestion durable des ressources en eau; Axis 8 - Mise en place d’un système d’information; Axis 9 - Opérationnalisation du contrat de nappes.

 Signatories of the framework groundwater contract are as follows: Ministère de l’Equipement, du Transport, de la Logistique et de l’Eau (minister), Secrétariat d’Etat auprès du Ministre de l’Equipement, du Transport, de la Logistique et de l’Eau, chargé de l’Eau (Secrétaire d’Etat), Ministère de l’Agriculture, de la Pêche Maritime, du Développement Rural et des Eaux et Forêts (minister), Wilaya of Béni Mellal- Khénifra region (Wali), Conseil Régional de Béni Mellal-Khénifra (Président du Conseil Régional), Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de l’Oum Er Rbia (Director), Direction Régionale de l’Agriculture de Béni Mellal- Khénifra (Director), Direction Régionale de l’Office National de Sécurité Sanitaire des Produits Alimentaires de Béni Mellal- Khénifra (Director), Direction Régionale du Conseil Agricole de Béni Mellal- Khénifra (Director), Tadla ORMVA (ORMVAT, Director), Direction Régionale de l’ONEE/Branche EAU (Director), Chambre Régionale de l’Agriculture de Béni Mellal- Khénifra (President), Centre Régional de la Recherche Agronomique de Béni Mellal- Khénifra (Head), Office Chérifien des Phosphates SA, Université Sultan Moulay Slimane of Béni Mellal (President), Confédération régionale des associations des usagers de l’eau agricole (President).

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B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSEMENT OF THE PDO

Objective/Outcome The contract for the management of two overexploited aquifers in Outcome Indicators Oum Er Rbia has been drafted following consultation process Improved knowledge on the management of climate risk is shared Intermediate Results Indicator 1 with stakeholders

1. Detailed assessment of the past, present and future climatology and hydrology of the Oum er Rbia River basin (Phase 1)

2. Update of the hydrological infrastructure of the Oum Er Rbia Basin in the water resource system model (Phase 1)

3. Training of ABHOER staff in the use of the RIBASIM water resources system model (Phase 1)

4. Recalibration of the RIBASIM model (Phase 1) Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome) 5. Simulations for different scenarios (Phase 2)

6. Assessment of climate risks to the Oum Er Rbia Basin performance criteria (Phase 2)

7. Preliminary analysis of climate-robust infrastructure investments and water management actions contained in the existing PDAIRE (Phase 2)

8. Support to the assessment of the climate impact on groundwater recharge

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8. Final analysis, reporting and sharing of results (Phase 3)

Number of stakeholders expressing intention to sign groundwater Intermediate Results Indicators 2 management contracts once finalized 1. Preliminary report and kick-off workshop (Mission 1)

2. Update of the inventory of water withdrawals and use (Mission 2) Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome) 3. Update of the Oum Er Rbia groundwater model (Mission 3)

4. Preparation of the framework contract through technical and legal support (Mission 4)

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ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

Note to Task Teams: The data in this section has been pre-populated for the first time for your convenience, but it is completely editable.

A. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Component 1 Stakeholder involvement in selecting performance indicators for a climate risk 0.16 0.231 145% assessment of water resources, including groundwater, in the Oum Er Rbia Basin

Component 2 Inclusive design and establishment of 0.58 0.470 81% groundwater contract management in the Oum Er Rbia Basin Capacity building and audit - 0.026 - Total Project Cost 0.74 0.728 98%

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The World Bank

Composante Montant payé en Montant Montant payé en MAD payé en Euro §USA

Composante A.1 - Contribution de la DMN par rapport 1,020,000.00 105,811.32 à la composante changement climatique : évaluation du risque climatique sur le bassin de l’Oum-Er-Rbia

Composante A.2 - Assistance technique pour 450,000.00 46,528.16 l’intégration et l'évaluation des risques climatiques (ERC) dans la planification et le développement des ressources en eau au niveau du bassin de l’Oum Er- Rbia, Maroc - Expert en RE du bassin de l'OER

Composante A.3 - Assistance technique pour 478,000.00 50,230.14 l’intégration et l'évaluation des risques climatiques (ERC) dans la planification et le développement des ressources en eau au niveau du bassin de l’Oum Er- Rbia, Maroc - Expert maitrisant l'outil RIBASIM

Composante A.4 - Organisation d'un atelier PRE- 136,380.00 14,122.25 COP22 pour rappeler sur les mesures d'adaptation de la gestion des RE aux CC au niveau du bassin de l'OER (1er Don de la Banque Mondiale)

Composante A.5 - Organisation d'un atelier pour 142,320.00 14,880.18 communiquer et sensibiliser sur les résultats de la composante 1 (ERC) objet du 2ème don de la Banque Mondiale.

Composante B.1 - Appui à la préparation de contrats 4,025,000.00 413,932.00 de nappe dans le Bassin de l’Oum Er-Rbia en s’appuyant sur une approche inclusive

Composante B.2 - Étude relative à l’intégration des N/A N/A N/A données et résultats des simulations des écoulements des eaux souterraines du complexe aquifère de Tadla dans la solution Système d’Information Géographique (SIG) de l’ABHOER développée sous ArcGIS Server

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Composante B.3 - Développement d’un Géo-portail du 280,000.00 29,046.25 complexe aquifère de Tadla et sa mise en ligne à partir du site web de l'Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de l’Oum Er-Rbia.

Composante B.4 - Assistance technique pour le 24,446.75 21,960.00 27,047.71 l’interfaçage du tableur MS-Excel avec l’outil RIBASIM, disponible au niveau de l’Agence du Bassin Hydraulique de l’Oum Er-Rbia(ABHOER)

Composante C1 – Audit 35,500.00 3,732.26

Composante C2 - Renforcement des capacités 218,500.00 22,960.85

Total 6,810,146.75 21,960.00 728,291.12

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ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIERS AND OTHER PARTNERS/STAKEHOLDERS COMMENTS (OPTIONAL)

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ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY)

Annex 4. 1 - Contrat cadre du système aquifère du Tadla 2018-2030, 27 septembre 2017

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Annex 4.2 - Water Law 36-15, relevant articles

Contrat cadre du système aquifère du Tadla 2018-2030

Water Law 36-15 (Loi n 36-15 relative à l’eau, 10 aout 2016, Bulletin Officiel, Maroc)

Relevant articles

1) Articles relevant to climate change

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The World Bank

2) Articles relevant to groundwater contracts

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Annex 4.3 - ABHOER géo-portail

Source: http://www.abhoer.ma/index.cfm?gen=true&id=55&ID_PAGE=190

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Annex 4.4 - Map of the Tadla aquifer