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Proquest Dissertations INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter hice. while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6” x 9” black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. Bell & Howell Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Ariaor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 UMI THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SYNOPTIC FACTORS AND INTENSITY CHANGES OF TYPHOONS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING ENSO AND NON-ENSO EVENTS DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Ke-Mao Wu, M. S. ***** The Ohio State University 2000 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Jay Hobgood, Adviser Professor Jeffery Rogers ^ ________ Professor John Rayner Atmospheric Sciences Graduate Program UMI Number 9971663 UMI UMI Microform9971663 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT Tlie purpose of this study is to find the relationship between synoptic factors and intensity changes of typhoons over the western North Pacific Ocean during ENSO (El Nino /Southern Oscillation) and non-ENSO events. An empirical equation between climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and maximum potential intensity (MPI) of typhoon is derived by- using 27 years (1965 - 1991) of data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. This equation is provided as a capping function for a given SST and its related typhoon intensity. Six years (1992 - 1997) of data were used to test the derived equation and there was no typhoon intensity exceeding the MPI. This empirical equation is used to as a measure of intensification potential (POT), one of the six synoptic variables used to relate the intensity changes of typhoons during ENSO and non-ENSO events. The other variables are vertical wind shear (SHEAR), time tendency of the shear (DSHEAR), relative and planetary eddy angular momentum flux convergence (REFC and PEFC), and relative angular momentum (RAM). These six synoptic variables are the independent variables and the intensity change of typhoons is the dependent variable. The standard multiple linear regression is used to relate the synoptic variables and intensity changes at 12, 24, 36,48, 60, and 72 hours during ENSO and non-ENSO events. ii The results of this study reveal that each variable has a different pattern of significance at various time periods. POT is not significant on the intensity changes of typhoon at any time period during ENSO and non-ENSO events. This may result from the rather uniform SSTs in the region where typhoons develop. SHEAR and DSHEAR are significant at most time periods with negative correlation with intensity changes which indicate that they are good predictors. RAM is significant at most time period of non-ENSO events (1996 and 1998) and not significant at all during ENSO (1997). REFC is not significant on 1996 but is significant on 1997 and 1998. The change of pattern of large-scale environment circulation induced by ENSO may affect the performance of these variables. Ill Dedicated to my mother and father IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor. Dr. Jay S. Hobhood. to his guidance through my graduate studies. I am grateful to Dr. Hobgood for providing the opportunity to learn through research. Thanks also to Dr. John Rayner, Dr. Jeff Rogers. Dr. Ellen Mosley-Thompson and Dr. Mark Lander for their comments and suggestions during this study. I acknowledge Dr. Derek West and Dr. Kevin Petty for providing information and data used in this study. Special thanks also to all my beloved friends for their friendships. Finally, I wish to express my gratitude to my parents and family members for their support and encouragement. VITA December 1 L 1966 ..................................... Bom — Taipei. Taiwan, Republic of China 1989 B.S. Meteorology. The Chinese Culture University. Taipei. Taiwan. R. O. C. 1989-1991 Graduate Fellow, The Chinese Culture University. Taipei, Taiwan, R. O. C. 1991-1993 .................................................... Researcher, Dept, of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan. R. O. C. 1993-2000 .................................................... Graduate Research Associate. The Ohio State University. Columbus, Ohio, U. S. A. FIELD OF STUDY Major Field: Atmospheric Science VI TABLES OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ................................................................................................................................. ii Dedication ............................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................ v Vita........................................................................................................................................ vi List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ ix List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... xi Chapters: 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 2. Literature Review..................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Climatology of the North Pacific Basin ...................................................... 4 2.2 El Nino and the Southern Oscillation ........................................................ 13 2.3 Typhoons ........................................................................................................ 22 2.4 Sea Surface Temperature ............................................................................... 29 2.5 Vertical Wind Shear ....................................................................................... 46 2.6 Eddy Angular Momentum Flux .................................................................... 54 3. Data and Methodology ............................................................................................. 58 3.1 Data................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.1 Western North Pacific Best Track Data ........................................ 61 3.1.2 Climatological Sea Surface Temperature Data ........................... 62 3.1.3 Daily Wind Field Data .................................................................. 63 VII 3.2 Calculation of Synoptic Variables .............................................................. 64 3.2.1 Vertical Wind Shear .....................................................................64 3.2.2 Angular Momentum Variables ................................................. 65 3.3 Translation Speed ...................................................................................... 70 3.4 Statistical Analysis .................................................................................... 72 4. .A.nalysis and Results ...............................................................................................79 4.1 Climatological SST versus Typhoon Intensity ......................................... 79 4.1.1 Empirical Equation for SST and Typhoon Intensity .................79 4.1.2 Case Study of the Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity Function .................................................................................... 90 4.2 The Relationship between the Synoptic Variables and Typhoon Intensity Changes during ENSO and Non-ENSO Events ............... 109 4.2.1 The Results of Study for 1996 (before ENSO) ................... 110 4.2.2 The Results of Study for 1997 (ENSO) ............................... 113 4.2.3 The Results of Study for 1998 (ENSO) ............................... 115 4.2.4 Comparison with Previous Studies ...................................... 118 4.2.5 The Influence of ENSO on the Synoptic Variables 122 5. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................. 135 Appendix A: SPSS Statistical Output for 1997
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