MEGA PROJECTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Lessons for Decision-Makers: an Analysis of Selected International Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects
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BARTLETT SCHOOL OF PLANNING MEGA PROJECTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Lessons for Decision-makers: An Analysis of Selected International Large-scale Transport Infrastructure Projects OMEGA Centre Centre for Mega Projects in Transport and Development. A global Centre of Excellence in Future Urban Transport sponsored by Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) MEGA PROJECTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Lessons for Decision-makers: An Analysis of Selected OMEGA Centre International Large-scale Transport Infrastructure Projects Bartlett School of Planning University College London Wates House 22 Gordon Street London WC1H 0QB United Kingdom December 2012 www.omegacentre.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk Graphic design by: www.urban-graphics.co.uk OMEGA Centre Centre for Mega Projects in Transport and Development. A global Centre of Excellence in Future Urban Transport sponsored by Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) contents SECTION [one] Introduction 01 SECTION [four] Conclusions 35 [two] OMEGA Research Methodology and Case Studies 09 References 44 [three] Key Lessons for MTP Planning, Appraisal and Delivery 13 Photo and Map Credits 47 Annex 1: OMEGA International Academic Partners 48 1: MTPs as ‘Agents of Change’ 16 Annex 2: Study Methodology 49 2: MTPs as ‘Open Systems’ 18 Annex 3: Related Research 52 3: MTPs as ‘Organic’ Phenomena 20 Figure 1: Figure 7: 4: The Framing of MTPs 22 The 30 OMEGA Case Studies Study Relationship of Key Themes LESSONS 5: The Power of Context 24 Figure 2: Study Methodology Figure 8: 6: Role of Sustainable Development Visions 26 Airport Rail Link, Hong-kong Figure 3: 7: Engaging with MTP Stakeholders 28 LIST OF FIGURES Channel Tunnel Rail Link, UK Figure 9: Sydney Cross City Tunnel, Figure 4: 8: Institutional, Policy and Legislative Support 30 Australia Millau Bridge, Millau, France Figure 10: 9: Lesson Learning and Sharing 32 Figure 5: Meteor, Paris, France The Big Dig, Boston, USA Figure 11: Figure 6: Kyushu Shinkansen, Hakata Øresund Link, Kastrup to to Kagoshima-Chuo, Japan Malmo, Sweden i Executive Summary Mega Projects [contents] Executive Summary Mega Projects ii The OMEGA Centre The OMEGA Centre is a global Centre of In addition, thanks are due in UCL for the Excellence funded by the Volvo Research and considerable support provided by Mike Education Foundations (VREF) directed by Griffiths and his team in the Research Professor Harry T. Dimitriou and based at Administration Division, Professor Sir Peter the Bartlett School of Planning at University Hall as Chairman of the OMEGA International College London (UCL). Steering Group, and for the encouragement and sustained support of the past Dean of Working with partner universities across the Bartlett, Professor Christine Hawley, and the world, the centre’s research focuses on the current Dean, Professor Alan Penn. achieving a better understanding of decision- making in the planning, appraisal and The team would like to take this opportunity delivery of Mega Transport Projects (MTPs), to especially express its gratitude to its based on thirty international case studies. overseas Academic Partners at the University The centre has as its overall mission the task of Melbourne in Australia, Ecole Nationales of establishing what constitutes a ‘successful’ Ponts et Chaussees in France, University of MTP for the 21st Century in light of the Thessaly in Greece, University of Hong Kong increasing risks and uncertainties that the in the Special Administrative Region of the future poses. People’s Republic of China, Tokyo Institute of Technology in Japan, University of Amsterdam The research was supported by a Centre of in the Netherlands, Lund University in Sweden Excellence grant from VREF. The Final Report and New York University in the USA for their was prepared by Prof. Harry T. Dimitriou, dedicated and focused efforts to complete case Philip G. Wright and Dr. E. John Ward with study work and for their assistance and support assistance from Robert Gallagher and June throughout the research (see Annex 1). T. Taylor (the UCL OMEGA Team). Thanks are due to Roger Allport and Robin Hickman for Finally, the UCL OMEGA Team is greatly their invaluable comments and suggestions indebted to the 300 or so project stakeholders on the final draft of this document. from around the world who gave their valuable time to take part in interviews and who universally provided key insights introduction Acknowledgements into the way in which MTPs are planned, The UCL OMEGA Team wishes to express its appraised and delivered. The team could not sincerest gratitude to VREF for the funding have successfully completed the research that sustained the research presented here. programme without the benefit of their in- In particular, the Team wish to thank Måns depth knowledge and insightful responses to Lönnroth and Professor Staffan Jacobsson for the questions investigated. their considerable assistance and guidance throughout the execution of the research Disclaimer and preparation of its various reports, and to Dr. Arne Wittlov who, as past Chairman Findings, views, and opinions expressed in of the VREF Board, gave the fullest possible this report are those of its authors and do encouragement and support. Thanks are also not purport in any way to represent those due to the management and administrative of the VREF or other parties. staff of VREF, notably, Henrik Nolmark and Fabienne Niklasson, for their continued help and advice. [section one] iii Executive Summary Mega Projects section 1 Introduction The OMEGA Centre contends that judgements Complementing the overarching research of project ‘success’ also require consideration question about establishing what constitutes This Executive Summary presents a selection of key findings from of a wider range of matters including: project ‘success’ are two further key questions a five-year research study of Decision-Making in the Planning, and three hypotheses which define the scope • the projects’ ability to meet objectives that of the Study, as follows: Appraisal and Delivery of Mega Transport Projects (MTPs): Lessons emerge over time and which ultimately impact on project outcomes; Further Research Questions for Decision-makers, hereafter referred as the OMEGA 2 Study. • changing societal, political and • how well has risk, uncertainty and environmental values and priorities that complexity been treated in the planning, evolve over time which further alter appraisal and delivery of MTPs? The research was based on an international The overarching research question expectations of MTPs; • how important is context in making study of 30 selected MTPs completed post- posed by the OMEGA 2 Study is: what • changing ‘visions’ among different judgements regarding ‘success’ and 1990 in Europe, USA, Australia and the Asia- constitutes a ‘successful’ MTP in light stakeholders involved in MTP development; the treatment of risk, uncertainty and Pacific region (Figure 1). The Final Report of the aims of such projects and the and complexity? of this research programme was submitted anticipated challenges presented by the to VREF in six volumes on 1 October 2011 21st Century. This investigation goes • different values, priorities and expectations Research Hypotheses (OMEGA Centre, 2011). well beyond the conventional project that prevail in different development and • traditional criteria relating to cost overruns, management concerns of completing cultural contexts. completion dates, generation of travel time For the purposes of this research, MTPs are such projects ‘on time, on budget savings for project users and rates of returns defined as land-based transport infrastructure and within prescribed specifications’, to investors are inadequate measures of investments within and connecting major often referred to as ‘Iron Triangle’ ‘success’ in the 21st century, as sustainable urban areas and metropolitan regions in the considerations of project management development concerns become increasingly form of bridges, tunnels, road and rail links, (Barnes, 1969) important though these critical both globally and locally; or combinations of these. They are projects remain. that entail a construction cost of over US$1 • the new emerging international and local billion (at 1990 prices), completed since 1990 agenda related to visions of sustainable and are frequently perceived as critical to development is multidimensional and the ‘success’ of major urban, metropolitan, goes beyond notions of environmental regional and/or national development. sustainability, as critical as this may be - it also concerns inter-related concepts of economic sustainability, social sustainability and institutional sustainability; and • the level of competence in MTP decision- making in today’s fast-changing world is best assessed by the adequacy of the treatment of risk, uncertainty and complexity, plus sensitivity to context(s) - all of which constitute important demands on strategic planning and resilience. 2 Executive Summary Mega Projects [section one] Executive Summary Mega Projects 3 Figure 1: The 30 OMEGA Case Studies1 In response to the above key research A primary purpose of the OMEGA 2 Study Country Mega Transport Project Completion Final Project Type Date2 Costs US$ questions and hypotheses, the OMEGA 2 Study is to foster institutional learning world-wide (billions)3 yielded a number of significant contributions concerning decision-making in the planning, Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL) 2007 9.6 High speed rail to the field of MTP development, presented appraisal and delivery