Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies from the 1840S Emily L
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University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School March 2018 Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies from the 1840s Emily L. Cerrito University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Geographic Information Sciences Commons, and the Meteorology Commons Scholar Commons Citation Cerrito, Emily L., "Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies from the 1840s" (2018). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/7607 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks in the Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies from the 1840s by Emily L. Cerrito A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science School of Geosciences College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Jennifer Collins, Ph.D. Cary Mock, Ph.D. Mark Welford, Ph.D. Joni Downs Firat, Ph.D. Date of Approval: March 5, 2018 Keywords: tropical cyclones, paleotempestology, Tampa Bay, Cuba, GIS Copyright © 2018, Emily L. Cerrito Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ vi Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Hurricane Climatology.................................................................................................. 3 1.1.1 Storm Characteristics and Measurement ....................................................... 4 1.1.1.1 Intensity Scales .............................................................................. 5 1.1.2 Hurricane Variability ..................................................................................... 7 1.1.2.1 Teleconnections .............................................................................. 7 1.1.2.2 Climate Change ............................................................................. 10 1.2 Paleotempestology ...................................................................................................... 12 1.2.1 Geological and Biological Proxies............................................................... 12 1.2.1.1 Examples from Florida and Cuba ................................................. 13 1.2.2 Historical Record ......................................................................................... 15 1.2.2.1 Primary Source Documents .......................................................... 15 1.2.2.2 Chronologies ................................................................................. 17 1.2.3 Hurricane Reconstructions ........................................................................... 18 1.2.3.1 Regional and State-Level Analyses .............................................. 19 1.2.3.2 Storm Track Reconstructions ........................................................ 22 Chapter 2: Methodology ............................................................................................................... 25 2.1 Study Area .................................................................................................................. 25 2.1.1 Florida .......................................................................................................... 25 2.1.1.1 Florida Keys .................................................................................. 26 2.1.1.2 Tampa Bay .................................................................................... 26 2.1.2 Cuba ............................................................................................................. 27 2.2 Data ............................................................................................................................. 27 2.2.1 Ship Logbooks ............................................................................................. 27 2.2.2 Newspapers .................................................................................................. 28 2.2.3 Other Primary Sources ................................................................................. 29 2.3 Analyses ...................................................................................................................... 29 2.3.1 Mapping Track Reconstructions and Synoptic Data ................................... 30 2.3.3 Intensity Estimates ....................................................................................... 31 i Chapter 3: Results ......................................................................................................................... 35 3.1 Hurricane of October 1844 ......................................................................................... 35 3.1.1 Storm Track ................................................................................................. 36 3.1.2 Storm Impacts .............................................................................................. 44 3.2 Hurricane of October 1846 ......................................................................................... 49 3.2.1 Storm Track ................................................................................................. 49 3.2.2 Storm Impacts .............................................................................................. 63 3.3 Hurricane of September 1848 ..................................................................................... 73 3.3.1 Storm Track ................................................................................................. 73 3.1.2 Storm Impacts .............................................................................................. 86 Chapter 4: Discussion and Conclusion ......................................................................................... 91 4.1 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 91 4.1.1 October 1844 Hurricane ............................................................................... 91 4.1.2 October 1846 Hurricane ............................................................................... 93 4.1.3 September 1848 Hurricane .......................................................................... 94 4.2 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 99 4.2.1 Limitations ................................................................................................. 100 4.2.2 Future Work ............................................................................................... 101 References ................................................................................................................................... 103 ii List of Tables Table 1.1: Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale .............................................................................5 Table 1.2: Beaufort wind scale........................................................................................................6 Table 2.1: Wind force terminology by tropical cyclone category ................................................34 iii List of Figures Figure 1.1: Tropical cyclone observational probability over time .................................................22 Figure 1.2: Ho’s track reconstruction for the Tampa Bay hurricane of September 1848 ..............23 Figure 3.1: Locations of meteorological and shipping observations for 3-8 October, 1844 ..........37 Figure 3.2: Reconstructed storm track of the October 1844 hurricane ......................................... 38 Figure 3.3: Locations of meteorological and shipping observations for 5-14 October, 1846 .......50 Figure 3.4: Reconstructed storm track of the October 1846 hurricane ..........................................51 Figure 3.5: Temperature and storm track reconstruction for 12 October, 1846 at 9 p.m. ..............57 Figure 3.6: Temperature and storm track reconstruction for 13 October, 1846 at 7 a.m. .............59 Figure 3.7: Temperature and storm track reconstruction for 13 October, 1846 at 3 p.m. .............60 Figure 3.8: Temperature and storm track reconstruction for 13 October, 1846 at 9 p.m. .............62 Figure 3.9: Temperature and storm track reconstruction for 14 October, 1846 at 7 a.m. .............64 Figure 3.10: Locations of meteorological and shipping observations for 16-28 September, 1848.......................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 3.11: Reconstructed storm track of the September 1848 hurricane....................................75