Vector4Peace № 2 17/06/2015

The tragedy in Tbilisi – a flood

State Security and Crisis Management Council published a data of Tbilisi flood death toll of 17th June, 2015. It has increased up to 19 people, their personality is ascertained. As a result of the flood, according to the official statements 19 people were dead, personality of 17 was identified, identification of 2 is in progress, and the number of missing counts for 6. Animals of Tbilisi zoo died, some of them were killed by the flood, and some were killed by intelligence services, justifying it with the fact that animals posed threat to the population. Lions, tigers, cheetahs, crocodiles … Elephants and hippopotamuses … All wandered around the city and its vicinities. At the moment the location of five animals still is not known. Considering the fact that species are not being specified, there remains a threat that some of them can be dangerous predators. Responsibility for the tragedy which happened in Tbilisi, as a result of a flood, lies on those who made contradicting decisions to elementary standards of safety. These are specific representatives of specific structures. Because of that, the prosecutor's office will investigate these issues. And somebody will bear responsibility for it

1

Assistance to the flood-affected population

The Georgian Foreign Ministry wishes to express its deep grief over the disaster that hit Tbilisi, the Georgian capital leaving people dead, injured and missing. The flood that swept through Tbilisi in June 2015 inflicted heavy damage on the city destroying part of its infrastructure – Tbilisi Zoo, the main road across the Vere River, houses in the adjacent streets. The Georgian Foreign Ministry conveys its condolences to the families of disaster victims. The Ministry in team with the Georgian Embassies abroad and the foreign missions accredited to Georgia continue to coordinate with relevant government agencies to overcome the consequences of the disaster and to effectively conduct reconstruction works. Employees of the Ministry, as well as representatives of Georgia’s diplomatic missions abroad and their foreign friends are eager to financially assist the affected population in the difficult time like this. By decision of the Ministry of Finance, special donation accounts both in national and foreign currencies have been set up at the State Exchequer. A separate account has been opened at the State Exchequer for budgetary funds that will go towards the flood-affected population. Account numbers, through which donations can be made, can be found on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia. http://www.mfa.gov.ge/

Administration of Tbilisi Zoo spreads the list of materials and goods which are mostly needed at the moment.

Administration of the Zoo thanks all the volunteers who participate in ongoing reconstruction works.

"Tbilisi Zoo appreciates and thanks all people and volunteers who worked very hard during the reconstruction and cleaning works on the territory. Many people contact us who expresses a willingness to help and assist, we cannot even answer all of them, and for purposeful and effective support we publish a list of what is needed at the moment. Those willing to help please, contact us or you can bring the listed goods directly to us on the spot, in educational centre of Zoo”, - is marked in the announcement of the administration of the zoo.

2

Below is the list: paddling inflatable pool for penguins - 2 pieces; children’s bathroom for water - 20 pieces; basins - 50 pieces; brooms - 200 pieces; scoop - 100 pieces; buckets (iron of plastic) - 100 pieces; rake - 50 pieces; strong, big locks - 30 pieces; green, recycle and trash bins - 50 pieces; veils - 1000 pieces; gloves - 1000 pieces; drinking water – as much as possible; angle grinder - 2 pieces (230 mm stone 50 pieces); 3 mm electrode - 200 pieces.

ALEXANDER RONDELI’S DEATH IS A GREAT LOSS FOR GEORGIA Information about the death of Alexander Rondeli was spread on June 12. He passed away at the age of 73. Dr. Alexander Rondeli was the President of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. He held a Ph.D. in Geography from (1974). From 1997 to 2001 he served as a Director of the Foreign Policy Research and Analysis Center at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia. Prior to that, in 1991-1996, Dr. Rondeli was a Chair of an International Relations Department at the Tbilisi State University.

Dr. Rondeli was a Research Fellow at London School of Economics and Political Science (1976-77), a Mid-career Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson School, (1993-94), a Visiting Professor at (1991), (1995) and Williams College (1992, 1995 and 1997). Dr. Rondeli held a diplomatic rank of an Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary. Vector4Peace expresses deep condolences and profound sorrow on the passing of the famous Georgian scientist, political scientist, professor and public figure, Alexander Rondeli. Alexander Rondeli’s death is a great loss for the country.

3

Consequences of the conflict: numbers of refugees. The first wave of internal displacement occurred in March IDPs in Ukraine 2014 and in one year the official number of By Andriy Tolstous registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) has climbed to over 1.3 million. Any Unfortunately there are 50 countries government faced with such a rapid and in the world with significant numbers of large-scale population displacement would be people displaced by conflict and thus a wealth hard-pressed to respond quickly and of experience in approaches and programs effectively. This study is intended to provide that work and those that do not. guidance to the readers to respond to the Internal displacement is a new challenges of IDPs, both in the emergency phenomenon in Ukraine. Until March 2014, phase and in the longer-term. And the country’s experience with forced unfortunately experience suggests that migration had been limited to relatively small displacement is likely to become long-term.

IDPs have fled from two areas of Ukraine: around 20,000 have fled Crimea (State Emergency Service, 2014), while 1,295,600 have fled eastern Ukraine (OCHA, 29 May 2015). IDPs have been displaced to every region in the country, although Crimean IDPs have mainly fled to western areas while those from eastern Ukraine were mainly displaced within the east of the country (OCHA, 23 January 2015). The latest rise in the figure is due to new displacement as well as registration of previously displaced persons. The figure 1,332,600 includes an estimated 17,000 IDPs displaced within Crimea (UNHCR, October 2014).

4

In Crimea, IDPs began to flee in March 2014 prior to a referendum in which the Crimean authorities reported more than 96 per cent of voters favored the republic becoming part of Russia. A second wave of displacement followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Many pro- Ukraine activists, journalists, officials as well as Crimean Tatars, an important ethnic minority in the peninsula, fled Crimea out of fear or because of threats, intimidation and discrimination on account of their ethnicity or political opinions (UNHCR, 18 August 2014). In eastern Ukraine, displacement is a result of the conflict between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian gangs aligned with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The vast majority of IDPs fled the area after June as fighting in the east intensified following referendums on self-rule and stepping up of the Ukrainian army’s so-called Anti- Terrorist Operation in May 2014. People continue to flee despite two ceasefires. Following the 15 February ceasefire an estimated 2,000 IDPs returned to Debaltseve (OCHA, 27 February 2015). IDPs have settled across the country, with the most vulnerable living in collective centers, their numbers fluctuate between 30,000 and 40,000 (HCT, December 2014). However, the eastern regions of Kharkiv (171,500), Donetsk (483,100), Luhansk (184,100), Zaporozhia (92,300), and Dnipropetrovsk (74,200) accommodate more than half of the IDP population (OCHA, 29 May 2015). Disaggregated data is only available for IDPs displaced from eastern Ukraine. As of 27 April, 12.6 per cent of IDPs are children, 4.2 per cent are people with disabilities and 60.2 per cent are receiving some type of pension (UNHCR, 27 April 2015). It is possible that there are some overlaps such as disabled persons being included in the figure for persons receiving pensions. Sex disaggregated data is no longer available following the transition of reporting on IDP registration figures from the State Emergency Services (SES) to the Ministry of Social Policy (MoSP) which took place on 21 January 2015. Many men have stayed behind to look after their properties (UNHCR, 18 August 2014). Some IDPs may have been counted more than once as they move around the regions. However, UNHCR estimates the number of IDPs is likely higher, as many IDPs are believed not to have come forward to the authorities or NGOs. This is due to fear of reprisals against their families, that their property will be confiscated or because they have the means to address their situation on their own (UNHCR, 21 July 2014). Others lack information on available assistance, do not have the documents required to access assistance or still hope their displacement will be temporary. The present situation in Ukraine, with over 1.3 million IDPs and a simmering conflict, has all the ingredients for protracted displacement that could last years or even decades. The governments of virtually all the 50 or so countries with protracted IDP situations lament, at least privately, that they didn’t get around to thinking about solutions until several years into the crisis, at the earliest. By this time, everything becomes more complicated, expensive, and difficult. Set up a task force to consider alternative durable solutions, commission some research into the feasibility of different scenarios, and encourage international and local civil society organizations to leave no stone unturned now – to set the stage for finding durable solutions for those displaced in Ukraine.

5

Project of “International Club for Economic Diplomacy” Changing global system of politics and economic has radically transformed the contours of international economic relationships between countries, throwing up new challenges and complexities in the economic, social, political and cultural spheres. In this scenario of interconnectivity and interdependency, with an increasing number of players striving to influence the outcome of economic relationships, economic diplomacy has assumed immense significance and posed new challenges to diplomats and Svetlana Kirakosian – Coordinator other actors, such as NGO, research and educational centers, “Caucasus Institute of Business Communications businesses and etc. Economic diplomacy is the use of the full arsenal of economic tools of the state, business, and NGO and research centers in the cooperation process with other countries, organizations, NGO and businesses. Economic diplomacy includes all the economic activities, including but not limited to export, import, investment, lending, aid, free trade agreements, business and economic forums, mutual business projects, internationalization of certain key economic objects etc. There are three elements of economic diplomacy: Commercial diplomacy and NGO's: The use of political influence and relationships to promote and/or influence international trade and investment, to improve on functioning of markets and/or to address market failures and to reduce costs and risks of cross border transactions(including property rights). Structural policies and bilateral trade and investment agreements: The use of economic assets and relationships to increase the cost of conflict and to strengthen the mutual benefits of cooperation and politically stable relationships to increase economic security. International organizations: Ways to consolidate the right political climate and international political economic environment to facilitate and institute these objectives

Student Conference on Economic Diplomacy held by Caucasus Institute of Business Communications In 2014 on the basis of Caucasus International University was created the Caucasus Institute of Business Communications. Initiators of the Institute were Helsinki Citizens Assembly Georgian National Committee, Caucasus Institute for Regional Security, Department of Innovations and Strategic Development of Caucasus International University. Business communications include establishing business relationship between different components of economic system (government, businessmen, NGO, international economic organization, municipalities, educational institutions etc.), exchanging information and promoting effective cooperation among them. There are a number of tool used to establish business communications. Those are negotiation, discussions, presentations, workshops, conferences, round tables, symposiums, forums, exhibitions and etc.

6

The mission of CIBC is to develop business in order to secure economic development and security in Caucasus. The goal of CIBC is to promote economic development of Caucasus region and create profitable economic environment for both local businessmen and foreign investors. Tasks of CIBC include fostering the importance of economic diplomacy, research and study of the business environment of Caucasus, implementation of Business Communications culture, research on different directions of business, involvement of youth in research and practical work, working out legislative initiatives, development of university manufacture. The directions of CIBC work include business and economic in peacemaking politics, creation of Business Incubator as a start up for student business initiatives, arranging business and economic forums, development of business in municipalities, etc. On 12th of June at Caucasus International University, CIBS conducted a student conference, which was devoted to the economic diplomacy day. During the conference students had an opportunity to present and discuss topics about international economic relations, economic diplomacy, business and the role of economic diplomacy in conflict settlement and crisis management. Students also presented their commercial and non-commercial business ideas. This is the second time when CIBC organizes such event devoted to economic diplomacy. Further, it is planned to carry out more events regarding this topic and popularize the role of economic diplomacy both in international relations and peacemaking process.

7

Vector4Peace will publish materials and interviews on economic diplomacy. Today, we bring to your attention the interview with Roman Gotsiridze – President of Economic Development Centre of Georgia at BSIU.

Mr. Roman, as you know, behind the military- political conflicts appears distinct economic interest groups. Do you think that legalization of their interests and starting direct negotiations with them will promote the settlement of the political conflicts?

During the military-political conflicts there is always somebody, who gains and somebody, who loses economically, but at the end it is people who lose. Financial and material damage caused by war cannot be covered by certain companies or people who gain by military orders or by other means.

When we talk about the escalation of conflicts by military-political-economic interest groups for economic profit, I don’t think that their role is big in this sense, but of course, nothing is excluded. Other thing is strategic economic interests of the country and enkindling military conflicts because of them. Personally, I do not believe that the role of business is big in planning and implementing such schemes, thus I do not see the necessity of starting “direct negotiations” with them.

If we take the military conflict in Ukraine, where many actors (companies, separatist military- political establishments, terrorists, formal and/or informal combatants of Russia and their leaders and etc.) gain an immense profit, but this does not mean that conflict started because of their interests. This is accompanying process which creates a new reality and becomes another harming fact in the conflict resolution process, even if there is a political will of resolution. To sum up, economic interests of interest groups are big, but in case of political will, that mean if country does not back them, it is possible to neutralize them. Though, it is hard. For example, in Donbass, even if there was the wish of Russia, it would be very hard to reestablish normal life regime in a situation where military system is formed which officially or unofficially robs natural, material and financial resources of the region. It will be very hard to tame them without using strong and repressive measures.

An example from the Georgian past characterizes well the phenomenon raised in your question: history of so called “Ergneti market” close to Tskhinvali. Here Georgian and Ossetian criminals, officials, Russian militaries, common people enrolled in trade shared a common interest. Smuggling, drug traffic, theft of cars and kidnapping was blooming, which harmed the Georgian economics and the whole society. Only using strong political and powerful methods it was possible to abolish it. Conversation about the fact, that this market promoted conflict settlement and contributed to peaceful co-existence of people, is either ignorance or demagogy. On the contrary, economic interest promotes the conflict situation stay in frozen state and thus promotes remaining of the profit gaining system.

8

From your point of view, would it be desirable to create an economic diplomacy club, which would draw out a corresponding strategy and would promote the organization and management of negotiations. (Probably, having a status of international organization)?

Economic analysis of conflicts should be done. On this direction, it will be more important. How can the raise of economic interests promote to its escalation and/or de-escalation? In this process economic issues can play a great part in both cases.

Creating an economic diplomacy club is not a bad idea. Actually with its’ initiative will be possible to study events and establish live contacts. It could be possible to implement a joint project among the conflicting sides, if international organizations will be engaged in the process.

Sometimes it is inevitable to consider economic interests. For example, ensuring separatist Abkhazia with electricity completely depends on Georgia, just as Georgian energetic system is incredible without electro energy produced in Abkhazia, considering Enguri hydro-electric power station, reservoir on Georgian territories, electric power stations on territories controlled by Abkhazia. Both sides are sentenced to cooperate. Otherwise, the damage will be massive for both sides. The main task of the club will be seeking of crossing points.

Is the economic damage, which Georgia suffered as a result of post-soviet wars assessed and do you posses these data?

As a result of post-soviet wars, damage causes to Georgia was not assessed by anybody. From science perspective it would not be bad. From political or juristic perspective, I do not think that this research would have a good prospect. How can we assess the actual occupation of 25% of the territory of the country by Russia? In this case, figures however will not have a great importance. Its’ value cannot be measured just by economic categories.

As a result of the war of 2008, Georgian government received numerous aids in the forms of credits and grants. We could not find any information as to how was spent more than $4 billion?

Aid was received in different ways and it is not difficult to find information about them. Some of them were grants, some of them – credits given to both government and the National Bank. It was spent on investment projects, to fulfill the reserves of the National Bank, to cover the deficiency of the budget and etc. Of course it is officially registered, because all the funds were being received from international financial institutions and bank channels of foreign friend countries

Editor:

Alexander Rusetsky – [email protected]

9