Gloucestershire and Districts Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report January 2009 Fordham Research Group Ltd, 57-59 Goldney Road, London, W9 2AR T. 020 7289 3988 F. 020 7289 3309 E. [email protected] www.fordhamresearch.com Foreword FOREWORD Structure and nature of the report This (Strategic Housing Market Assessment) SHMA report is divided into sections. The logic for the sections derives from the Brief for the work, Government Guidance and the need for a logical explanation of the work. An additional section is also included detailing updated information that has become available as the result of further result commissioned since the original SHMA report was produced. At the start of each section the chapter titles and short summary of content are listed, in order to assist the reader to gain a brief overview of the detailed contents. A more substantial overview is provided in the Executive Summary. A considerable part of this report is devoted to following the many stages of the department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) Practice Guidance (March and August 2007) whose stages are labelled throughout the relevant chapters. Since the stages/steps of the Guidance are not numbered sequentially in each chapter of the Guidance, we have added a chapter number identifier (so Step 5.1 becomes 5.5.1 if Guidance Chapter 5 is involved). The next page of this report provides a summary list of the chapters. Detailed contents of each chapter are presented after the Glossary, at the end of the report. These can be used as an index when seeking further information on a given topic. Reports such as this use a multitude of data sources, many of which are frequently altered or updated. In that respect the report is constantly evolving. In the critical respect of housing markets and affordable housing, however, a procedure is given in the last chapter for updating that key area. Conventions: key terms and maps The Glossary provides a detailed list describing the meaning of the main terms used in this report. Maps are typically shown in terms of degrees of intensity, rather than by specific numbers. That is because the distributions would be uninformative if, for instance, an equal four-way split were used. Each distribution is examined so as to show its variation effectively – this may mean that three categories lie in the last quarter of the overall range. Acknowledgements A large-scale assessment of this nature is a collaborative effort and Fordham Research wish to thank all members of the SHMA partnership for their support, guidance and contributions. We would also like to thank those local stakeholders who participated in the discussion and whose local knowledge and views have been immensely helpful. Page i Chapter Listing Chapter Listing SECTION A: INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 3 SECTION B: CONTEXT ................................................................................................................... 9 2. National and regional policy and background information................................................... 11 3. Input from stakeholder consultations..................................................................................... 25 4. The Sub-regional Housing Market Area.................................................................................. 37 5. Demographic and economic data............................................................................................ 47 6. Housing stock ........................................................................................................................... 69 7. The active housing market....................................................................................................... 81 SECTION C: THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET........................................................................ 105 8. Projections for households and employment ...................................................................... 107 SECTION D: HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 123 9. Extent of housing need .......................................................................................................... 125 10. The housing requirements of specific household groups................................................ 145 SECTION E: BRINGING THE EVIDENCE TOGETHER .............................................................. 175 11. Current policies and trends in housing .............................................................................. 177 12. Major themes, drivers and challenges ................................................................................ 189 SECTION F: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND UPDATING ............................................................ 203 13. Housing markets gaps and the housing ladder ................................................................. 205 14. Policy tools for size mix and price ...................................................................................... 211 15. Monitoring and updating ...................................................................................................... 225 SECTION G: 2009 GLOUCESTERSHIRE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT .......................... 237 16. Update: Impact of 2009 Gloucestershire Housing Needs Assessment ........................... 239 Appendix 1. Stakeholder consultation...................................................................................... 255 Appendix 2. Guidance on the sizes tenure of new housing at sub-district level.................. 263 Appendix 3. District summaries ................................................................................................ 291 Appendix 4. Intermediate housing ............................................................................................ 307 Glossary....................................................................................................................................... 323 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 333 Page i Gloucestershire and Districts - Strategic Housing Market Assessment Page ii SECTION A: INTRODUCTION SECTION A: INTRODUCTION This section explains what the report seeks to achieve. Page 1 Gloucestershire and Districts - Strategic Housing Market Assessment Page 2 1. Introduction 1. Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to explain: • What a Strategic Housing Market Assessment is • Why Gloucestershire Councils undertook the work • What methodology was employed • How the report is structured What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment? 1.1 Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) are used by local authorities and regional bodies to develop a good understanding of how housing markets operate. They promote an approach to assessing housing need and demand which can inform the development of Local Development Documents and Regional Spatial Strategy planning for housing policies, as set out in Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing. 1.2 More specifically, the value of Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) is in assisting policy development, decision-making and resource-allocation processes by: • enabling regional bodies to develop long-term strategic views of housing need and demand to inform Regional Spatial Strategies and regional housing strategies • enabling local authorities to think spatially about the nature and influence of the housing markets in respect to their local area • providing robust evidence to inform policies aimed at providing the right mix of housing across the whole housing market – both market and affordable housing • providing evidence to inform policies about the level of affordable housing required, including the need for different sizes of affordable housing • supporting authorities to develop a strategic approach to housing through consideration of housing need and demand in all housing sectors – owner-occupied, private rented and affordable – and assessment of the key drivers and relationships within the housing market • drawing together the bulk of the evidence required for local authorities to appraise strategic housing options including social housing allocation priorities, the role of intermediate housing products, stock renewal, conversion, demolition and transfer; and • ensuring the most appropriate and cost-effective use of public funds Page 3 Gloucestershire and Districts - Strategic Housing Market Assessment 1.3 It also encourages local authorities to assess housing need and demand in terms of housing market areas. This might involve working with other local authorities in a sub- regional housing market area through a housing market partnership. 1.4 The Guidance describes a series of steps and processes. This report, at least, adheres to these guidelines although in most instances it also provides additional analysis. Why Gloucestershire Councils undertook the work 1.5 The South West Regional Housing Strategy 2005 to 16 identified the Gloucester- Cheltenham sub-region as a Housing Market Area. The area is centred on the County of Gloucestershire but incorporates some of its surrounding areas both within and outside of the South West region. 1.6 The six Gloucestershire district