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E-STAG European Science & Technology Advisory Group Evolving Risk of Wildfires in Europe The changing nature of wildfire risk calls for a shift in policy focus from suppression to prevention Abstract climate change, human behaviours and Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, as Most of the damage from wildfires other underlying factors are creating the well as the integration of science into is due to extreme events that represent conditions for more frequent, intense governance, the further use of risk less than 2 per cent of the total number and devastating fires in Europe – now knowledge, and greater awareness of fires. These events, for which neither and over the next century. The report among populations of the need for a ecosystems nor communities are adapt- also provides authorities with concrete change in behaviour. ed, can have significant socioeconomic recommendations and examples of good and ecological consequences. This is practice. Along with further efforts to why it is now time to develop appro- combat climate change, this new context priate risk reduction strategies and requires adapted policies to shift the minimize the impacts of large-scale focus from suppression to prevention, fires. This report demonstrates how as called by the Sendai Framework for 1 Integrating realistic societal behaviour Shifting from suppression to prevention Raising awareness Table of contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................ 3 2. How Climate change could influence wildfire activity in the 21st century .......................................................5 3. Health impact of wildfires, a growing concern for Europe ....................................................................................8 4 Recommendations and examples of good practices .......................................................................................... 10 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Coordinator: Jean-Louis Rossi Authors: Blaž Komac, Massimo Migliorini, Reimund Schwarze, Zvonko Sigmund, Carmen Awad, François Joseph Chatelon, Johann Georg Goldammer, Thierry Marcelli, Dominique Morvan, Albert Simeoni, Benni Thiebes. Cover picture : Wildfire in abandoned cultivated areas in France. Pascal Pochard-Casabianca AFP The views presented in this document, designations employed, and the presentation of maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 2 01 Ingredients for disasters 1.1. A changing risk landscape Changes in climatic and weather conditions are one of the the damage caused by forest fires is due to large fire events, major reasons for the increase in wildfire hazard and risk [1,2]. which represent less than 2 per cent of the total number of As global temperatures are expected to be warmer than current fires [5]. With the exception of Portugal, there has been a no- levels and severe droughts more frequent, fires season will be ticeable decrease in the number of fires and the total surface prolonged in many ecosystems. Thus, new regions around the area burned since 1980. In fact, the problem lies in the increase globe will potentially be affected by wildfire risk [3]. in extreme fires, for which neither ecosystems, communities nor It is generally recognized that anthropogenic factors have also firefighting methods (even aerial) are adapted. Many countries in contributed to increase fire risk worldwide [4]. These include the Europe continue to experience these severe fire events, despite modification of land use, rural exodus and the abandonment of an increase in fire suppression budgets. Recent examples, such previously cultivated land – with no alternative strategy for land as those in the Russian Arctic region, illustrate how forest fires management. This is exacerbated by rapid, anarchic urbanization can quickly become out of control [9]: more than 8 million hec- in wildland urban interfaces (WUI), fire exclusion policies that tares have already gone up in smoke in 2020, following record contribute to fuel accumulation, and a predominant focus on levels of destruction in 2019. Experts have already noted that fire extinction rather than an effective prevention strategy. A "forest fires across eastern Siberia have increased in number combination of all these factors means that the risk of wildfire and intensity since mid-June in a way that is very similar to the is likely to increase substantially in the future, and that extreme same period last year" [10]. The June heat wave in the Arctic, catastrophic wildfire events (such as the Attica Fire in Greece with temperatures ranging from 12°C to 14°C above the seasonal 2018 – reported in this document) could occur more frequently. average – including a record 38°C observed on 20 June in the The term ‘wildfires’ – also known as ‘forest fires’, ‘bushfires’ Arctic city of Verkhoyansk – are among the factors contributing or ‘wildland fires’ – is commonly used to refer to unwanted fires to the rapid spread of fires. Mark Parrington, an expert with the that burn forests and wildlands [5–7]. Extreme fires that have Copernicus Atmosphere Watch Service, declared that "these fires had significant ecological and socioeconomic impacts occurred degrade air quality and accelerate climate change”. in China in 1987; in Portugal in 2003, 2005 and 2017; in Spain This changing landscape urgently requires new strategies to in 2006 and 2017; in Greece in 2007 and 2018; in Italy in 2007; reduce the risk of fires and thereby decrease their economic, in Australia in 2009 and 2020; in the United States in 2013 and environmental and social impact. The first aim of this report is 2017; and in Canada and Chile in 2016 (non-exhaustive list). A to demonstrate how climate change and human behaviours are global reference for the destructive power of these catastrophic helping to create the conditions for more frequent, intense and fires is the disaster that occurred on the now infamous ‘Black devastating fires in Europe over the next century. The second aim Saturday’ in the small town of Kinglake in the Australian State is to provide examples of good practice in Europe. The report also of Victoria in 2009. In twelve hours, fire burned through 100,000 emphasizes that, in addition to the global battle against climate ha of land, resulting in the death of 120 people [4].The total change, this new context requires a fire management policy that annual economic cost of wildfires in Victoria is estimated to includes fuel treatments, prevention measures based of weather be around AUD 180 million and is expected to double over the forecasts, early warning systems, a stronger focus on population next 40 years [8]. In Europe, approximately 85 per cent of the awareness, and strategies and techniques that integrate the use total burned area of land in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and of technical or traditional fires, as well as an institutional shift Spain is due to wildfires. Recent studies indicate that most of in focus from suppression to prevention [11]. 3 E-STAG - EVOLVING RISK OF WILDFIRES IN EUROPE 1.2. Underlying risk factors burned areas, and high rates of unemployment and pressure from tourism. In many places, people are abandoning previously Studies have shown that in many parts of the world, the nature cultivated land, thereby extending fire-prone areas [15]. For in- of wildfires is changing [12,13]. Since the 1980s, there has been stance, in the Western Mediterranean region of Europe, fuel loads a decrease in the total burned area in Europe’s most affected are now greater than ever before due to rural abandonment and countries – with the exception of Portugal [5]. The problem lies depopulation resulting from the decline in rural economies [17]. more in the significant impact of extreme fires. Despite a rise in In other places where wildfires have often occurred, there has fire suppression budgets, fire seasons have become increasingly been an increase in population density. The expansion of WUIs severe. Deadly and destructive wildfires have become the norm into fire-prone areas exacerbates exposure and vulnerabilities in many regions around the world. This requires a better under- [18]. WUIs are areas where man-made structures are located in standing of the intimate relationships between ecosystems and or adjacent to fire-prone areas. These densely populated areas do fire (the ‘fire regime’) [14]. not have proper wildfire protection measures in place, and have an Recent studies suggest that this increase in catastrophic increasing number of citizens who are unaware of the risks [17]. wildfire events appears to be correlated with a number of factors. When this complex fire environment receives an ignition, it For example, Ganteaume and Jappiot [13] report that in the south often has severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. of France between 1997 and 2010, fires that burned more than Therefore, research on the linkages between extreme fire events 100 ha were responsible for 78 per cent of the total burned area. and human activities is of paramount importance, and requires These wildfires spread

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