ADRIANA D. KUGLER (April 2010)
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Allied Social Science Associations Atlanta, GA January 3–5, 2010
Allied Social Science Associations Atlanta, GA January 3–5, 2010 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. i ASSA_Program.indb 1 11/17/09 7:45 AM Thanks to the 2010 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Robert Hall, Chair Pol Antras Ravi Bansal Christian Broda Charles Calomiris David Card Raj Chetty Jonathan Eaton Jonathan Gruber Eric Hanushek Samuel Kortum Marc Melitz Dale Mortensen Aviv Nevo Valerie Ramey Dani Rodrik David Scharfstein Suzanne Scotchmer Fiona Scott-Morton Christopher Udry Kenneth West Cover Art is by Tracey Ashenfelter, daughter of Orley Ashenfelter, Princeton University, former editor of the American Economic Review and President-elect of the AEA for 2010. ii ASSA_Program.indb 2 11/17/09 7:45 AM Contents General Information . .iv Hotels and Meeting Rooms ......................... ix Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ................xxiv Allied Social Science Associations ................. xxvi Summary of Sessions by Organization .............. xxix Daily Program of Events ............................ 1 Program of Sessions Saturday, January 2 ......................... 25 Sunday, January 3 .......................... 26 Monday, January 4 . 122 Tuesday, January 5 . 227 Subject Area Index . 293 Index of Participants . 296 iii ASSA_Program.indb 3 11/17/09 7:45 AM General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity; the hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. CONVENTION FACILITIES Eighteen hotels are being used for all housing. -
Export Dynamics in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence
Faculty Research Working Papers Series Export Dynamics in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence Jonathan Eaton New York University Marcela Eslava Universidad de Los Andes Maurice Kugler John F. Kennedy School of Government – Harvard University James Tybout Pennsylvania State University October 2007 RWP07-050 The views expressed in the KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the John F. Kennedy School of Government or of Harvard University. Faculty Research Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. Copyright belongs to the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES EXPORT DYNAMICS IN COLOMBIA: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE Jonathan Eaton Marcela Eslava Maurice Kugler James Tybout Working Paper 13531 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13531 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2007 We gratefully acknowledge Banco de la República de Colombia for its support to this project, both financially and in terms of data access. We also thank Pietro Bonaldi, Monica Hernández, and Miguel Rueda for excellent research assistance, as well as Enrique Montes for expert data advice. Finally we are grateful to Costas Arkolakis, Sascha Becker, Gene Grossman, Ricardo Hausmann, Elhanan Helpman, Dalia Marin, Marc Melitz and participants in the CEPR conference on "Globalization and the Organization of Firms", as well as members of the Board of Governors of Banco de la República de Colombia, for valuable comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. -
Strengthening Reemployment in the Unemployment Insurance System
DISCUSSION PAPER 2015-02 | MARCH 2015 Strengthening Reemployment in the Unemployment Insurance System Adriana Kugler The Hamilton Project • Brookings 1 ADVISORY COUNCIL MISSION STATEMENT The Hamilton Project seeks to advance America’s promise of opportunity, prosperity, and growth. We believe that today’s increasingly competitive global economy demands public policy ideas commensurate with the challenges of the 21st Century. The Project’s economic strategy reflects a judgment that long-term prosperity is best achieved by fostering economic growth and broad participation in that growth, by enhancing individual economic security, and by embracing a role for effective government in making needed public investments. Our strategy calls for combining public investment, a secure social safety net, and fiscal discipline. In that framework, the Project puts forward innovative proposals from leading economic thinkers — based on credible evidence and experience, not ideology or doctrine — to introduce new and effective policy options into the national debate. The Project is named after Alexander Hamilton, the nation’s first Treasury Secretary, who laid the foundation for the modern American economy. Hamilton stood for sound fiscal policy, believed that broad-based opportunity for advancement would drive American economic growth, and recognized that “prudent aids and encouragements on the part of government” are necessary to enhance and guide market forces. The guiding principles of the Project remain consistent with these views. 2 Informing Students about Their College Options: A Proposal for Broadening the Expanding College Opportunities Project Strengthening Reemployment in the Unemployment Insurance System Adriana Kugler Georgetown University MARCH 2015 NOTE: This discussion paper is a proposal from the author(s). -
School Vouchers, Labor Markets and Vocational Education
School Vouchers, Labor Markets and Vocational Education By: Eric Bettinger Michael Kremer Maurice Kugler Carlos Medina Christian Posso Juan E. Saavedra No. 1087 2019 Bogotá - Colombia - B ogotá - Bogotá - Colombia - Bogotá - Colombia - Bogotá - Colombia - Bogotá - Colombia - Bogotá - Colombia - Bogotá - Colombia School Vouchers, Labor Markets and Vocational Education By ERIC BETTINGER, MICHAEL KREMER, MAURICE KUGLER, CARLOS MEDINA, CHRISTIAN POSSO AND JUAN E. SAAVEDRA* The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República nor its Board of Directors Abstract We provide evidence on the long-run impact of vouchers for private secondary schools, evidence collected twenty years after students applied for the vouchers. Prior to the voucher lottery, students applied to either an academic or vocational secondary school, an important mediating factor in the vouchers’ impacts. We find strong tertiary education and labor market effects for those students who applied to vocational schools with almost no impact on those who applied to academic schools. The labor market gains for vocational students are strongest at the top of the distribution and null at the bottom of the distribution. We find additional long- run impacts on consumption, and teen-age fertility. The expected net present value of benefits to participants and to taxpayers was large and positive implying that the program was welfare improving unless net externalities were large and negative. JEL Codes: E51, H24, I22, I23, I26, J13 Keywords: school choice, scholarships, formal earnings, access to higher education, access to consumer credit, fertility. _____________________ * Bettinger: Stanford University, [email protected]; Kremer: Harvard University, [email protected]; Kugler: George Mason University, [email protected]; Medina and Posso: Banco de la República de Colombia, [email protected], [email protected]; Saavedra: University of Southern California, [email protected]). -
Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK
Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK Maurice Kugler and Reza Ofoghi * July 2005 Abstract The first conference of UNCTAD in 1964 acknowledged the development of national insurance and reinsurance markets as essential aspects of economic growth. Yet, evidence from cointegration analysis by Ward and Zurbruegg (2000) showed there was no long run relationship between growth in the insurance industry and economic growth for some OECD countries, including the UK and the US, by using the total value of written insurance premia. However, it is surprising that an industry which in the case of the UK is the largest in Europe, and the third largest in the world, had no effect on the economic activity. As Granger (1990) claimed, it is possible to have cointegration at the aggregate level and not at the disaggregate level and vice versa. We use the components of insurance premia to find a long run relationship between development in insurance market size and economic growth for most components by using Johansen’s λTrace and λ max cointegration tests. This evidence implies there is a possibility that Ward and Zurbruegg ’s results were affected by the aggregation problem. In addition, because cointegration analysis does not provide information about possible patterns (Demand-following and Supply- leading), we used causality tests. Results show for most cases, we have a long run relationship between insurance market size and economic growth rather than a cyclical effect. Keywords: Insurance, risk sharing, economic growth, aggregation problem JEL Codes: O47, G0, C32 * Corresponding address: Economics Division , School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, Hampshire, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom. -
Export Dynamics in Bangladesh Exploring the Data
Policy brief 3007 | June 2012 Jonathan Eaton, James Tybout, Kala Krishna Bee Yan Aw and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare Export Dynamics in Bangladesh Exploring the Data In brief • Successful economic development is invariably associated with growth and diversification of export-oriented industries. • This study seeks to collect and analyze sources of data that illustrate the evolution of Bangladeshi exports over the last four decades and identify opportunities and challenges for future growth. • Bangladesh’s success in expanding apparel exports is unlikely to continue over the next decade. Therefore, Bangladesh should exmine policies to encourage industry upgrading in apparel and diversification into ther industries and countries. • The main advantage Bangladesh has had in apparel is low wages, as opposed to high productivity. However, recent pressure for wage increases and unionization are halting this. There is not much evidence of a long term trend toward quality upgrading or movement into more sophisticated products or into major new markets. • Export diversification, as seen in Korea for example, is not seen nor guaranteed. Despite accumulation of skills and knowledge, market and institutional failures imply that the emergence of new export industries is not as natural as it might seem. • Recommendations: • Bangladesh should explore options for quality upgrading and export diversification. • Policies need to ensure successful contract completion by sellers and buyers. • Bangladesh should establish a reputation for high performance in production and exporting in new areas and markets. Ideas for growth www.theigc.org Policy Motivation “We recommend that Successful economic development is invariably associated with the growth and Bangladesh examine diversification of export-oriented industries. -
Exporting Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from Argentina
LAURIER Business & Economics DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES 2008-02 EC: EXPORTING SPILLOVERS: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM ARGENTINA Facundo Albornoz and Maurice Kugler Department of Economics Tel: 519.884.1970 Wilfrid Laurier University, Fax: 519.888.1015 Waterloo, Ontario, Canada www.wlu.ca/sbe N2L 3C5 Exporting Spillovers: Firm-Level Evidence from Argentina∗ Facundo Albornoz† Maurice Kugler‡ February 13, 2008 Abstract We investigate whether exporting firms generate possibilities for productivity enhancement by other firms through spillovers. While spillovers have been analyzed when domestic learn from foreign-owned firms, we consider the possibility of learning from firms that export, irrespective of ownership origin. We find evidence consistent with learning from exporters to upstream producers. Foreign-owned firms that do not export do not generate spillovers. Therefore, our results suggest that export activity, as opposed to foreign direct investment (FDI) per se,isassociatedwithknowledgediffusion to input suppli- ers.Indeed, the results suggest that FDI subsidies to foster technology spillovers may well be dominated by certain export promotion strate- gies. In addition, removing barriers to exports can prove less costly than removing barriers to FDI inflows. JEL-Classification: O30, F10 Keywords: Exporting, Spillovers, FDI, Supply-Chain Linkages ∗We would like to thank for helpful conversations Matthew Cole, Rob Elliott, Ricardo Hausmann, Dani Rodrik, and Ernesto Stein. †University of Birmingham. ‡Wilfrid Laurier University, the Centre for International Governance Innovation, and Center for International Development at Harvard University. 1 1 Introduction The observation that multinational corporation (MNC) affiliates tend to have higher productivity than manufacturers surrounding them, has led re- searchers to investigate whether foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows cre- ate learning opportunities for firms in the host country. -
Human Progress and the Rising South
Edited by: Khalid Malik • Maurice Kugler Human Progress and the Rising South UNDP Human Development Report Office Human Progress and the Rising South Edited by: Khalid Malik • Maurice Kugler Empowered lives. ResilientUnited nations Nations. Development Programme Human Development Report Office 304 E. 45th Street, 12th Floor New York, NY 10017 http://hdr.undp.org/ UNDP Human Development Report Offi ce 304 E. 45th Street, 12th Floor New York, NY 10017 Tel: +1 212-906-3661 Fax: +1 212-906-5161 http://hdr.undp.org/ UNDP Human Development Report The Human Development Report series has been published by UNDP since 1990 as independent, empirically grounded analyses of major development issues, trends and policies. Additional resources related to the 2013 Human Development Report can be found online at http://hdr.undp.org, including complete editions or summaries of the Report in more than 20 languages, a collection of Human Development Research Papers commissioned for the 2013 Report, interactive maps and databases of national human development indicators, full explanations of the sources and methodologies employed in the Report’s human development indices, country profi les and other background materials as well as previous global, regional and national Human Development Reports. United Nations Development Programme UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in 177 countries and territories, we offer global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP, or the UN Member States. -
Curriculum Vitae – March 2011
Curriculum Vitae – March 2011 1. PERSONAL DATA Name RAPOPORT , Hillel Professional Address CID, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 JFK Street, Rubenstein Bldg, Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: +1 – 617 – 496 80 97; Fax: +1 – 617 – 496 87 53 Email [email protected] Homepage http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/ec/rapoport/rapoport.htm 2. EMPLOYMENT Positions 2009- Visiting Research Fellow , Center for International Development, and Visiting Professor, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University . 2007- Associate Professor , Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University , Israel 2007- Professor , EQUIPPE, University of Lille , France Other affiliations 2006- CReAM, University College London ( External Research Fellow ) 2007- IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain ( Extramural Fellow ) 2007- CEPREMAP , Paris ( Research Associate ) 2010- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (International Research Fellow ) Past positions 2003-08 Associate Faculty , Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel-Aviv University 2001-03 Visiting Research Fellow , Stanford Center for International Development and Visiting Assistant Professor , Dept. of Economics, Stanford University 3. DEGREES/AWARDS/RESEARCH GRANTS Degrees, Awards, Fellowships 2009 Growth Lab Research Fellowship , Center for International Development, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University . 2008 Developing Countries Prize 2008 , Justus Liebig Universität Giessen , awarded for distinguished research on “migration and development”. 2003 Milken Institute Award for Distinguished Economic Research , The Milken Institute , Los Angeles, April. 2001 Annual Junior Research Fellowship , Stanford Center for International Development (SCID), Stanford University . 1993 PhD in Economics, University of Paris II (Panthéon-Assas). 1 Research grants and contracts (since 2005) 2010 University of Luxembourg , project on A World Database on Immigration Law and Policy – the IMPALA Project , 2010-12. -
Raising Wages and Rebuilding Wealth a Roadmap for Middle-Class Economic Security
AGENCY/PHOTOGRAPHER Raising Wages and Rebuilding Wealth A Roadmap for Middle-Class Economic Security Edited by Carmel Martin, Andy Green, and Brendan Duke September 2016 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG Raising Wages and Rebuilding Wealth A Roadmap for Middle-Class Economic Security Edited by Carmel Martin, Andy Green, and Brendan Duke September 2016 Contents 1 Introduction and summary 25 Jobs and Wages 58 An Immigration Policy that Works for All Americans 63 Early Childhood 75 Higher Education 84 LGBT People Face Significant Barriers to Middle-Class Security 89 Health Care 104 A Fair Shot for Families with Disabled Workers, Children, and Dependents 111 Housing 128 The Racial Wealth Gap as a Barrier to Middle-Class Security 133 Retirement 149 Conclusion 154 About the authors vi Center for American Progress | Raising Wages and Rebuilding Wealth CHAPTER 1 Introduction and summary By Brendan Duke and Christian Weller Introduction and summary | www.americanprogress.org 1 Introduction and summary The American middle class is finally seeing economic gains after more than a decade of declining economic security. Yet millions of Americans are still feeling the effects of a painful economic period. Middle-class wages and incomes grew rapidly during the 1990s, but that growth came to an end around 2001.1 Seven years of stagnant middle-class income growth were followed by the financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession, which ravaged middle-class jobs and savings. And in recent years, ill-advised aus- terity policies have slowed the recovery of jobs and wages while income inequality has reached new heights. Add to this the growing costs of child care, health care, higher education, and housing, and families are feeling squeezed. -
The Impact of Redistributive Tax and Transfer Programs on Risk- Taking Behavior and Labor Mobility
ASSOCIATED PRESS/SUSAN WALSH WALSH PRESS/SUSAN ASSOCIATED The Impact of Redistributive Tax and Transfer Programs on Risk- Taking Behavior and Labor Mobility By Adriana Kugler December 2013 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG The Impact of Redistributive Tax and Transfer Programs on Risk-Taking Behavior and Labor Mobility By Adriana Kugler December 2013 Contents 1 Introduction and summary 4 Redistributive tax and transfer systems 4 Tax progressivity 5 Transfer programs 8 Tax and transfer systems: Impacts on occupational and industrial mobility 11 Tax and transfer systems: Effects on geographic mobility 14 Conclusion 15 References 16 Technical appendix: Model, data, and regression results 16 Model 18 Data 28 About the author and Acknowledgements 29 Endnotes Introduction and summary The idea that higher income inequality has pernicious effects on economic growth has been considered for decades. Many studies have been written to establish the negative relation between income inequality and growth, as well as to explain the channels through which this relation can occur. Some argue that greater inequality in a society due to lack of access to education can reduce growth since increasing the skill level of the workforce is a key component of growth. Others argue that higher inequality generates conflict and political instability, which can be bad for the investment climate and for growth in general. Importantly, others indicate that higher inequality and lower earnings for middle- and lower-income households limit their purchasing power and consumption and, as such, reduce growth. A less-studied channel is the positive effect that redistributive policies and programs that reduce income inequality can have on risk taking and entrepreneurial behav- ior, which in turn encourages growth. -
International Trade When Inequality Determines Aggregate Demand*
International Trade when Inequality Determines Aggregate Demand* Maurice Kugler Department of Economics University of Southampton Southampton, SO17 1BJ, U.K. January, 2001 Abstract The model in this paper characterizes the pattern of international trade, and technological innovation and imitation between industrialized and developing regions, when preferences are nonhomothetic. By and large, models of the dynamics of North-South trade impose the assumption of unit income elasticity for all consumption goods. This assumption is relaxed to incorporate the insight from Engel’s Law: The budget share allocated to necessities falls with income. Since the composition of individual consumption depends on income, aggregate demand for newly invented goods depends not only on the distribution of income across countries but also within countries. To account for the impact of income distribution, preferences are introduced where consumers rank indivisible goods according to a hierarchy of both needs and desires. In the model, the distribution of wealth is unequal in the less developed country and even in the industrialized country. Then, the composition of the aggregate consumption basket in the integrated economy depends on both inter- and intra-national inequality. Hence, a demand channel is identified through which inequality affects the international trade pattern. Empirical evidence from a panel of bilateral trade data among 58 countries, for which adequate income distribution measures exist, and spanning three decades supports the conjecture that high inequality in a trading partner country yields less bilateral trade flows through lower imports, after controlling for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Keywords: Nonhomothetic preferences; inequality; aggregate import demand; pattern of international trade.