Edited by: Khalid Malik • Maurice Kugler Human Progress and the Rising South UNDP Human Development Report Office Human Progress and the Rising South Edited by: Khalid Malik • Maurice Kugler Empowered lives. ResilientUnited nations Nations. Development Programme Human Development Report Office 304 E. 45th Street, 12th Floor New York, NY 10017 http://hdr.undp.org/ UNDP Human Development Report Offi ce 304 E. 45th Street, 12th Floor New York, NY 10017 Tel: +1 212-906-3661 Fax: +1 212-906-5161 http://hdr.undp.org/ UNDP Human Development Report The Human Development Report series has been published by UNDP since 1990 as independent, empirically grounded analyses of major development issues, trends and policies. 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ISBN: 978-92-1-126365-7 eISBN: 978-92-1-056314-7 Design and production: Samantha Wauchope Table of Contents Preface by Khalid Malik and Maurice Kugler .......................................................... v Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1 The South in the World Economy: Past, Present and Future ..................... 8 Deepak Nayyar Chapter 2 The Challenge of the South ........................................................................ 38 Khalil Hamdani Chapter 3 Capabilities and Human Development: Beyond the Individual – the Critical Role of Social Institutions and Social Competencies ........... 79 Frances Stewart Chapter 4 Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections .............................................................................. 113 Wolfgang Lutz, Samir KC Chapter 5 Development-Oriented Policies and Alternative Human Development Paths: Aggressive but Reasonable Interventions ................................... 140 Pardee Center for International Futures Chapter 6 Challenges and Opportunities: Civil Society in a Globalizing World .... 186 Patrick Heller Chapter 7 Financial Architectures and Development: Resilience, Policy Space and Human Development in the Global South ...................................... 246 Ilene Grabel Chapter 8 The Rise of the Global South: Implications for the Provisioning of Global Public Goods .................................................................................. 300 Inge Kaul Chapter 9 Transforming Global Governance for the Twenty-First Century .......... 336 Ngaire Woods, with Alexander Betts, Jochen Prantl and Devi Sridhar KHALID MALIK, Director UNDP Human Development Report Office Khalid Malik has been Director of the UNDP Human Development Report Office since June 2011. Mr Malik has held a variety of senior management and substantive positions in the United Nations, serving as UN Resident Coordinator in China (2003–2010); Director, UNDP Evaluation Office (1997– 2003); Chair, UN Evaluation Group; UN Representative in Uzbekistan; and other senior level advisor positions. He has been active on UN reform and has worked closely with development partners and UN intergovernmental bodies. In 2009, Mr. Malik was one of ten ‘champions’—and the only foreigner—to be honored for their contributions to the protection of the environment in China. Mr. Malik has written widely on a range of topics. His latest book Why China Has Grown So Fast for So Long was published in 2012 by Oxford University Press. Earlier, he co-edited Capacity for Development: New Solutions to Old Problems (2002), and Lessons Learned in Crisis and Post Conflict Situations (2002). Before joining the United Nations, Mr. Malik taught and conducted research at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (1975) and at Pembroke College, Oxford (1974–75). He has studied economics and statistics at the universities of Oxford, Cambridge, Essex and Punjab. MAURICE KUGLER, Head of Development Research and Data Unit, UNDP Human Development Report Office Maurice Kugler has taught full time at Harvard, Los Andes, Southampton and Stanford Universities. He holds M.Sc. and B.Sc. degrees from the London School of Economics and a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. Kugler’s work explores ways that global market integration and other reforms impact human development prospects in nations and regions. He has conducted research on development and globalization issues from international trade to foreign direct investment and skilled migration and has been awarded research grants by the MacArthur Foundation, the National Science Foundation and the Tinker Foundation in the US and by the Department for International Development and the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK. He has been adviser to the Central Bank of Colombia, the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank. IV HUMAN PROGRESS AND THE RISING SOUTH Preface The economic dynamism of Southern countries over recent decades is truly unprecedented in its sheer speed and scale, and is reshaping global power rela- tions in many important respects. But economic figures are only the starting point of the story of the rise of the south. As well as the successes of the fast-growing Asian Tigers and the Southern BRICS countries, there are many other compelling success stories in the South— from the resurgent economic growth and rising education levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, to declining inequality throughout most of Latin America. The 2013 Human Development Report, The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World, identifies more than forty developing countries that, as well as accounting for most of the world’s economic growth, have in recent decades made much greater human development strides than projected. The advances made by these developing countries, which collectively represent a majority of the world’s population, have resulted not from adhering to a fixed set of policy prescriptions, but from applying pragmatic policies that respond to local circumstances and opportunities—including a deepening of the developmental role of states, a dedication to improving human development, and an openness to trade and innovation. The ‘Rise of the South’ is a remarkable story of human development achieve- ment over the past few decades, with undeniable benefits for all parts of the world, North and South alike. Future and continued progress will, however, require policy makers to play closer attention to such issues as equity, voice and accountability, environmental risks, and changing demography. Hard-won gains in human development will be more difficult to protect if cooperation fails and difficult decisions are postponed. It is our hope that the fresh analysis of many different facets of this phe- nomenon by the scholars represented in this volume can help inform and guide continued human development progress throughout the world, today and for generations to come. Khalid Malik and Maurice Kugler Introduction V Introduction he world is in the midst of profound social and economic change, driven by Tthe dynamic emerging powers of the developing world. The United Nations Development Programme’s 2013 Human Development Report, The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World, examines this phenomenon in detail, underscoring the historic magnitude of this global rebal- ancing and analyzing the diverse policy approaches of developing countries that have achieved great human development gains in recent decades. The 2013 Report looks at the major remaining challenges to sustaining this progress, and the pro- found implications of the ‘Rise of the South’ for global and national public policy. The 2013 Report’s findings and forecasts draw significantly on background research commissioned from eminent economists, demographers and social sci- entists. Human Progress and the Rising South—a companion volume to the 2013 Report—is an edited collection of those research papers. The authors, representing different yet complementary disciplines in the field of human devel- opment, provide important new contributions to international development thinking. Their research offers new insights into the development strategies, policies and future prospects of more than forty developing nations that the 2013