OMOKOROA COLLEGE

The Case for a New Secondary School on the Omokoroa Peninsula - response to Ministry analysis Prepared for: Education Select Committee Prepared by: Jo Linthwaite, Karen Loten and Greig Neilson 16 June 2019

Page !1 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

CONTENTS

Contents 2 Executive Summary 3 Exponential Growth 5 The right time to open a new school 7 Parental choice 9 Distance, educational outcomes and wellbeing 12 Strategic thinking 15 Concerns with Ministry Analysis 16 Appendix 1 - District Map 18 Appendix 2 - New Secondary Schools 19

This paper offers a commentary on the predicted growth for Omokoroa and surrounds as prepared for the Education and Workforce Select Committee by the Ministry of Education. The purpose of this modelling is to assess the perceived urgency in the construction of a secondary college at Omokoroa.

The Ministry’s analysis is a response to a Business Case prepared in support of a petition by Jo Linthwaite, as considered by the Select Committee in February 2019.

Please refer to the Business Case and companion appendices for further information, including: - Statements from the Omokoroa Community Board and Western Bay District Council - Analysis of distances to secondary provision and secondary school size in New Zealand - Omokoroa College roll scenarios - Options for managing growth in the wider region.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Progressing the establishment of a new College at Omokoroa On request from the Education and Workforce Select Committee, the Ministry of Education has prepared briefings on the current and future state of the schooling network west of Tauranga. It is the view of the petitioners that the data sources and modelling used by the Ministry of Education are out-of-step with the exponential growth in this sub-district. These tools would suggest that there is no need for a secondary school in the short-term; we disagree.

The key points contained in this paper are as follows:

- The dramatic increase in the number of new households in the district means that Ministry analysis is not able to keep up with real-world data

- Ministry roll estimates are widely off the mark; the predicted end-2019 rolls are already ahead of where the Ministry expects to be at the end of 2021

- School transport provision is a key factor in enrolment decisions for rural families and will heavily influence the opening roll of an Omokoroa College

- The potential catchment area for a College contains four complete primary school catchments, plus half of a fifth school catchment, that will number 1,223 students by the end of 2019

- Even when using a conservative estimate of integrated and single-sex preferences, an Omokoroa College will outstrip the growth of two recently opened Auckland secondary schools

Page !3 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

Exponential growth In the 2014 to 2018 period there were 551 new households in Omokoroa. As a result of these new households there has been substantial growth in local rolls; Omokoroa Point School is more than 100 students larger than it was five years ago. In 2019 several large residential subdivisions have begun selling sections to the market, including the launch of a Special Housing Area.

The right time to open a new school The Ministry predicts that the sub-district’s primary schools will be home to 1,193 students at the end of 2021. Interviews with the principals at the time of writing this paper reveal that rolls at the end of this year will be 1,223. The real world is progressing at a much greater rate than the statistics would suggest. We have developed a model for future enrolment choices that compares the future roll of an Omokoroa College to that of recently-opened secondary schools. This model reveals that even using today’s roll numbers the school would be large at commencement and become much larger within a short period of time.

Parental choice In estimating the future roll of an Omokoroa College the Ministry has predicted that future enrolment decisions will not differ markedly from the decisions made today. We believe that the opening of a College will be a major factor in future enrolment decisions, heavily influenced by the relative travel times of the various options. The availability of free school transport will also play a major part in enrolment choices.

Natural catchments In estimating the proportion of current primary students that would enrol at an Omokoroa College we surveyed the principals of the five proximal primary schools to seek their views on future enrolment choices. Their estimates ranged from 30% to 80%, with the three schools located with 5km of a future College providing the highest estimates. This paper provides explanatory maps to demonstrate the proximity of primary school communities to a new College.

This paper This paper reinforces the arguments put forward in the Business Case submitted to the Select Committee in February 2019, updates the Committee with increased roll estimates, and demonstrates the ways in which the real world is moving at a much faster rate than models and statistics would suggest.

Page !4 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Estimating future growth The case put forward by the petitioner is clear: across the five main contributing schools there are sufficient numbers today to warrant the immediate construction of a secondary school in Omokoroa. In contrast, the Ministry’s analysis focuses only on the Omokoroa Census Area Unit. The Omokoroa CAU covers an area of 7.49km2 which is a mere fraction of the 394km2 catchment area of the contributing CAUs.

In reality, a large majority of students living within the sub-district are likely to attend a new College. Interviews with principals have revealed anticipated enrolment rates of between 30% and 80%.

The Ministry says that a secondary school is needed, but not yet. We believe this position does not adequately recognise the accelerating growth across the district. This is partly driven by the large number of residential subdivisions on the Omokoroa peninsula, but also by stable and/or growing rolls in the rural areas within the catchment. Developers in urban Tauranga have recently called on the Tauranga City Council to release more land for subdivision, stating that the supply of sections will run out by the end of 20191. This leaves Omokoroa as the only development option in the subregion that can support sustained population growth in the short- and medium-terms.

The following table shows the roll numbers of the five main contributing schools. Readers should note that: 1. These figures exclude enrolments at Matahui School and Te Kura o Te Moutere O Matakana, both schools being located within range of a new College (87 students), and home-schooled students in the district 2. The estimated 2019 year-end rolls are already in excess of the Ministry estimate of 1,193 students for the end of 2021. 3. 2018 rolls are the most recent official numbers, but the 2019 rolls indicate that the sub-district is on track to exceed the 2018-to-2023 estimate.

School Type 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Present End 2019

Omokoroa Point Full primary 193 209 221 225 268 290 302

Omokoroa School Full primary 273 281 297 290 303 296 340

Pahoia Contributing 205 217 213 200 196 180 200 Te Puna Full primary 207 236 246 289 268 302 320

Whakamarama Full primary 35 31 47 52 61 61 61

Total 913 974 1,024 1,056 1,096 1,129 1,223

Increase over five years (2018 vs 2014) 20.0% Estimated 2023 total rolls using 5yr trend 1315

1 “Developer on Tauranga land supply crisis” 13 March 2019, New Zealand Herald

Page !5 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

Accelerating development The last five years have seen a tremendous acceleration of residential development in Omokoroa. This development has resulted in the roll of Omokoroa Point School growing from 193 students in 2014 to an estimated 302 students at the end of 2019. As a result of this growth, Omokoroa Point School is presently constructing three new classrooms and has reduced its enrolment scheme in order to manage future growth. Further roll-growth classrooms will soon be needed.

Projected new households vs actual new households Count 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Projected 40 48 48 48 120 304 Actual 48 59 110 145 189 551 Projected Actual 200

150

100

50

0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Western Bay of Plenty District Council, 14 June 2019

In the period between 2014 and 2018 there were 551 new households in Omokoroa. During that period Council had projected 304 new households to take up residence. A drive through Omokoroa on Sunday 16 June 2019 revealed a total of 84 dwellings in various stages of construction. New houses that have already been occupied and those that have reached lock-up stage and were not counted in this analysis. We can expect that the Council’s 2019 projection of 120 new households to be exceeded again.

In our opinion, the traditional data sources and modelling tools used by the Ministry are questionable for an environment experiencing such rapid growth. On-the-ground observations should be taken into account to produce a coherent projection.

Page !6 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

THE RIGHT TIME TO OPEN A NEW SCHOOL

Predicting enrolment choices A key aspect of the Ministry’s decision to open a new secondary school is the size of the future school. The principals of the five main contributing schools were each asked to estimate the potential enrolment patterns of families. Whilst these estimates are necessarily subjective, they have been made by experts on their school communities and therefore need to be considered as being based on sound evidence.

In making these estimates, the principals took into account a range of factors that have possibly been excluded from the Ministry’s analysis. These factors include: alignment of business and other community interests, historical patterns, extra-curricular activities and school transport provision. In considering the roll numbers below, it is important to point out that Pahoia School is contributing school and therefore has a smaller roll than it would as a full primary, and each of the other four schools lose students in Years 7 and 8 to the Tauranga intermediate schools.

School Present roll End 2019 Add 20% to Principal 2024 Share roll 2019 roll estimate College roll Omokoroa Point 290 302 362 80% 290 30%

Omokoroa School 296 340 408 80% 326 34%

Pahoia 180 200 240 80% 192 20% Te Puna 302 320 384 30% 115 12%

Whakamarama 61 70 84 50% 42 4%

Total 1,232 1,478 966 100%

Readers should note that the “100% estimate” provided in the February business case predicted a roll of 1,315 students. The equivalent figure from the table above for 2024 is 1,478 students. Growth continues exponentially.

Comparison to other new schools In the Select Committee meeting of 29 May 2019, the Ministry stated that they did not wish to open a new school “ahead of the population demand.” In considering the size of a future school it is worthwhile to compare the potential roll to other secondary schools that have opened in this decade.

In analysing the opening and current rolls of eight secondary schools and comparing them with the potential roll of an Omokoroa College we made a number of observations. In developing the following rankings we adjusted upwards the rolls of schools that have recently opened and do not have students across all year levels. In predicting the Omokoroa College roll we took the 2019 predicted rolls, adjusted them for the

Page !7 OMOKOROA COLLEGE

percentage of parents that choose to send their children to Katikati or Tauranga, and then we reduced the Yr 13 cohort by 23% in line with the attrition observed at local secondary schools. Please refer to Appendix 2 for further detail on our analysis.

Observations

- Rototuna Senior and Junior High schools have a combined roll of 1579 and are ranked 1 among new schools. The Senior roll was adjusted by 50% to account for Yr 13 not yet being in place

- Papamoa College is ranked second. This school opened with a roll of 431 and in seven years has grown to over 1300 students

- Rolleston College has been open for two years and has two year levels in place. Extrapolating this roll across five year levels gives a roll of 1078.

- If 80% of contributing school students attend an Omokoroa College it would be ranked fourth with a roll of 933 once the year levels fill up

- Ormiston Junior and Senior Colleges (Auckland) have a predicted roll of 872 once the year levels fill up

- If only 60% of contributing school students attend an Omokoroa College it would be ranked sixth with a roll of 700 once the year levels fill up

- Hobsonville Point Secondary School in Auckland has been open since 2014 and has a roll of 544

- Tarawera College in Kawerau is the only rural secondary school that has opened in the last decade and has a roll of 457.

These observations are striking in that they show the relative strength of an Omokoroa College roll based on today’s roll numbers and conservative enrolment preferences. In a further five years the roll numbers will have grown even further, and it is not unreasonable to predict that the growth of an Omokoroa College will outstrip both of the recently opened Auckland secondary schools.

All roll numbers and estimates need to viewed with regard for the fact that the future shape of the network is unknown in terms of full primary or contributing schools vs the new college being a 1-13 school, 7-13 school or 9-13 school. What we do know, however, is that in July 2018 there were 112 Yr 0-6 children per year level across the five schools, and we know that growth in the district continues exponentially.

In summary, we know that the school will become large very quickly, so the question becomes “why not build it now rather than subjecting another generation of students to excessive travels times?”

Page !8 PARENTAL CHOICE

In the Select Committee meeting of 29 May the Ministry consistently mischaracterised the petitioner’s view on potential roll numbers. The Ministry appears to have based this view on a supporting letter from the Western Bay District Council which included some rudimentary estimates. The petitioner did not intend to imply that all local residents would choose an Omokoroa College, as demonstrated in the appendices of the February business case which showed potential rankings among other secondary schools according the enrolment preferences of parents. The petitioner wishes to make it clear that there is no expectation that all families will choose to attend an Omokoroa College.

Drivers of parental choice The Ministry’s analysis makes much of the various enrolment choices exercised by current parents in the catchment area. We believe that the whilst the current enrolment choices have equal weighting for current students, they do not accurately serve to predict future decisions.

When travelling from the west of Tauranga there is only one access point to the urban area: State Highway 2 at the Wairoa River. The existing bus network allows for the free exchange of intermediate and secondary state school students at a transfer point in Bethlehem. Right now, travel is not a factor in the choice of a secondary school because students coming from the west all face a similar journey to school.

This scenario changes when a new secondary school at Omokoroa is built. For the first time, parents will be able to choose whether to send their children to a town school or enrol them at a local school. At present, the only question is “which town school?” In the future, the first question will be “should we send our child to a local school and avoid the travel, or send them into town?” The vast majority of parents in the catchment will then need to choose between a co-educational school located within 5kms with no traffic issues, or a daily commute of over one hour each way. Parents will also need to think about whether they want to travel into Tauranga to support extra-curricular activities or to travel to Omokoroa. For families living on the peninsula, the choice is between needing to drive to collect children from after-school activities versus children being able to walk or cycle home. This, in turn, affects a parent’s ability to seek employment.

Future enrolment choices may be even more challenging for students attending special character schools such as Aquinas College and Bethlehem College. At present, the travel time from the catchment area to Bethlehem College is slightly less than for state schools, and slightly longer for Aquinas. When faced with the choice between a 90-minute bus journey to attend a special character school or a 5-minute journey to attend a local school, many parents will make a different decision than they would today.

School transport provision Absent from the Ministry’s analysis is a consideration of school transport provision and effect on enrolment decisions. This is understandable, given that only one rural secondary school has been opened in the last decade. It is clear that for many families in New Zealand school transport is not a factor in making an enrolment decision - families committed to a certain type of school will find a way. But for other families, transport is a critical factor. Having a parent that travels past a school of choice each day is handy for many, but this is often a matter of good luck than good management.

Page !9 The Ministry of Education only provides school transport to the nearest appropriate school. Ministry policy does not have regard for a preference for single-sex schooling, which means that parents choosing to send their children to a more distant school may need to pay for the privilege, and travel to meet a bus. Existing families living west of Tauranga pay a fare to access an intermediate or single-sex school because the Ministry does not fund these students.

The Ministry’s analysis places a strong emphasis on enrolment zones being used to guide parental choices. This is good in theory, but in practice the MInistry’s enrolment scheme policy is often at odds with school transport policy. For example, a future student may be zoned for Tauranga Boys’ College, but if they live west of Te Puna Road they will not be able to access a bus to school from their house. This severely limits choice for many families. On the map area shown below, there are only two buses that travel in the eastern fringe of this district, roughly along the roads that border the future transport zone. This is a stark reduction from the nine buses that ply the main roads in this district today.

Page 10! A second important factor when it comes to school transport is the Ministry’s restriction on school buses travelling into the catchment of a neighbouring school without permission. For the Omokoroa catchment this is not presently an issue - the secondary schools have agreed to support parent choice and they allow for the transfer of students between buses. This is likely to change with the introduction of a new school and will affect the neighbouring schools and families wishing to attend them. Buses presently travelling to Pahoia, Omokoroa and Whakamarama from Tauranga will only travel as far as Te Puna. Buses presently travelling to Pahoia and Omokoroa from Katikati may only travel as far as Aongatete.

Naturally, school transport policy allows for transitional arrangements that allow for current students and siblings to complete their schooling careers, minimising disruption to neighbouring schools. But in considering the potential enrolment choices of future parents we need to factor in how those students will get to school once the transitional arrangements have expired.

The school bus issue raises a number of questions, the answers to which must have an effect on our roll modelling. Questions include:

- Will students in Pahoia catch a bus from their gate to Omokoroa or will parents drive 9kms to catch a bus?

- Will students in Whakamarama catch a bus from their gate or will parents drive 10km to catch a bus?

- Will students in Omokoroa that wish to attend a single-sex school drive their students 11km beyond the local school to support this choice?

- Will parents of integrated school students choose to bypass a local school and have their students travel 90mins to school?

The five primary school principals are in the best position to understand the future educational pathways for their families, and they have clearly stated that the large majority of students will attend the local school.

Page 11! DISTANCE, EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES AND WELLBEING

One of the key arguments made in the Business Case to the Select Committee was the effect of travel on student outcomes and wellbeing. With many students facing a travel time of over 80mins in 2019, the Ministry’s response concentrates on the variation in distances rather than the actual journeys faced by the majority of students. This section explores this matter in further detail and describes why travel, and access to school transport, will play a major part in enrolment preferences.

The Ministry’s view is that the catchment for an Omokoroa College is restricted to the Omokoroa CAU. The following case studies describe why we believe that each school will make a contribution to a College roll. Appendix 1 contains a map of the district identifying the primary schools and neighbouring state secondary school options.

Te Puna School catchment The majority of students attending Te Puna School live in the area bounded by SH2 in the south, Te Puna Road in the east to Snodgrass Road in the west. The eastern boundary of this area is only 9.9km to Otumoetai College and yet the route commences at 7.27am due to traffic jams on SH2.

The remainder of the rural-dwelling students live south of SH2 in Wairoa-Minden area. These students live anywhere from 6.3km to 13km from the College, and board the bus between 7.20am and 7.55am.

Most of the rural students in this area are equidistant to Otumoetai College and a future Omokoroa College. Roughly half of this catchment would fall within the transport zone of an Omokoroa College - the only primary school catchment in this analysis that is bisected by a transport boundary. In deciding which school to attend, parents will need to consider the availability of school transport. For many students the only free bus trip available will be to Omokoroa College. Many other students live on or near the zone boundary so could expect to catch a free bus in either direction. That said, students travelling into Tauranga will face a traffic jam, those heading to Omokoroa will not, and this is likely to effect enrolment decisions.

Neil Townsey, Te Puna School principal, estimates that 30% of his students will attend a college at Omokoroa. The Ministry’s analysis has excluded Te Puna from future roll estimates; we believe that 30% of current students need to be included. The Te Puna catchment represents 12% of the anticipated 2023 Omokoroa College roll numbers.

Omokoroa School catchment The eastern side of this catchment is 12km from Otumoetai, the northern-most point is 16.7km. Students are spread throughout the attachment area, with the geographic centre being the corner of Plummer’s Point Road and SH2. Having reached this point at 7.47am after collecting passengers, there is a further journey of 13km to Otumoetai College. Alternately, this point is 3km and a three-minute drive from the site of a future Omokoroa college.

Page 12! The entirety of this catchment falls within the Omokoroa College Transport zone, meaning that students would be entitled to free school transport. Principal, Craig Pentecost estimates that 80% of his school will enrol.

The Ministry has identified that a proportion of these students are out-of-zone for this school. This assessment is accurate, but irrelevant given that all but a handful of students live within the zone of an Omokoroa College.

This catchment produces 34% of the predicted roll for Omokoroa College. This catchment is also home to the Kaimai Views Special Housing Area that has recently begun selling to the market and borders a future College site. This sub-division contains 241 three- and four-bedroom houses and is targeted at families rather than retired people. As noted in the previous Business Case, there are in excess of 1000 consented sections in Omokoroa.

Whakamarama School catchment At the nearest point to Tauranga, Whakamarama School’s catchment is 15.5km from Otumoetai College. Students in this area board the bus at 7.05am each day. The most distant point of this catchment area is 24.6km from the College.

Most of the secondary students in this area would reach the state highway at the same point as those from Omokoroa School. Here they are faced with a 13km journey into Tauranga or a 3km journey to Omokoroa. Other students in this area travel further - upon reaching the highway they would travel 15.2km to Otumoetai or 1.2km to the future secondary school site. It is reasonable to expect that a large share of these secondary students would travel to Omokoroa rather than spending between 43mins and 80mins on a bus.

Natasha Greatorex, Whakamarama School principal, advises that half of her year 8 students will attend Otumoetai College next year. There is no mention of Whakamarama School in the Ministry’s analysis, despite the future College being the nearest secondary schooling option in the future.

Pahoia School catchment This catchment differs from the other five school catchments in that graduating primary school students travel in two opposing directions. Some travel to Katikati, others to Tauranga. There is a free school bus travelling through this catchment to Katikati, whilst Tauranga-bound students needs to travel to Pahoia School to meet a bus. The availability of this free school bus has an effect on enrolment decisions. The majority of Pahoia Schools’ students live in the Esdaile Road area and the furthermost students live 22km from Katikati and 27km from Otumoetai. This furthermost point is 12km from an Omokoroa College.

The Ministry’s analysis concludes that Pahoia School should be excluded from the future roll of an Omokoroa College. We believe that this is hard to justify given that Pahoia School is only 3km away from a future College site. In fact, Pahoia School is closer to the future College site than either Omokoroa Point School or Omokoroa School.

A casual observer would not expect that families would be happy to send their children to a school 17kms away, even if compelled to do so by an enrolment scheme. Therefore the majority of families in this area would be expected to attend Omokoroa College. Principal Mike McKee agrees; he estimates that 80% of his school will come to Omokoroa.

Page 13! The most compelling factor in the enrolment decision made by this community will be the availability of school transport. The Ministry provides school transport to students that attend their nearest school. In this case, 100% of the Pahoia School catchment falls within the potential transport zone of an Omokoroa College. This means that parents living on the Pahoia catchment that wish to attend Katikati College would need to travel around 9kms to deliver their child to the zone boundary before they could access a school bus.

The growth of Pahoia School is somewhat limited due to site constraints and therefore the future roll predictions have a natural ceiling. Roll growth in this catchment is likely to flow over into a new Omokoroa primary school. The potential contribution to an Omokoroa College roll is 20%.

Omokoroa Point School catchment Co-educational secondary students living in this catchment travel between 17.3km and 20.3km each day. The first students board buses in this area at 7.20am. Beyond 2023, students in this area wishing to access secondary schooling in Tauranga will travel past the Omokoroa College site. Given current travel times, this would mean parents choosing to have their child board at 7.20am to access a single-sex school rather than walking or cycling to school at a more civilised hour. By 2023, travel times to Tauranga will have increased dramatically meaning that even fewer families will choose to travel out of Omokoroa.

School transport will be a major consideration for families living in this catchment. To access a school bus to a more distant state secondary school parents will have to travel up to 13km to access a Katikati College school bus or 10km to access a Boys’ College or Girls’ College school bus. This catchment represents 30% of the anticipated future roll of an Omokoroa College. Sheer proximity to a new school is expected to be an attractive option for parents living in this catchment. For this reason, Omokoroa Point’s principal, Vicki Knell, expects that 80% of her students will graduate to the local secondary school.

Beyond the catchment The Ministry’s analysis excludes some catchments on the basis that some students are resident outside of the catchment. We believe that current residents of the catchment presently attend other primary schools beyond the catchment. They may be travelling to an “outside” primary school today, but a proportion of the students can be expected to direct their attention to a new secondary school. This includes students travelling to Bethlehem College, Aquinas College and state primary schools.

Travel time and extra-curricular activities As stated in the previous Business Case, excessive travel times have a detrimental effect on a student’s readiness to learn when arriving at school. In 2019 these times are already excessive; by 2023 they will only be worse. The establishment of a College at Omokoroa will, for the first time, present the opportunity for extra- curricular activities for teenage students. It is anticipated that this will be a major factor in parents within the five catchments choosing an Omokoroa College in preference to other schooling options.

Page 14! STRATEGIC THINKING

The Ministry’s leadership role The Ministry’s response to the Business Case indicates a passive role in leading the schooling network. In a growth area such as Tauranga the Ministry has the ideal opportunity to instead take leadership role in determining the best future shape of the Network. For example, the Ministry makes reference to parents that may choose Otumoetai College over an Omokoroa College and that this may have an effect on the roll of each school. We believe that the Ministry should instead be positive in deciding the best way to manage the schooling network, and implement suitable enrolment schemes that manage the network effectively.

It is also incumbent on the Ministry to use a wider angle when considering the needs of the sub-region. Concerns such as the possible negative effect on the roll of Tauranga Girls’ College need to be supported with evidence and take into account future growth beyond Omokoroa. An effective analysis would describe how the decline in TGC students travelling from the west of Tauranga will be offset by increases in student numbers to the south and east of Tauranga. This analysis is not included in the Ministry’s briefing. A potential, non- quantified reduction in the number of girls attending TGC is not a justifiable reason to delay an Omokoroa College.

Nature of the new school As alluded to by Chairperson Dr Parmar in the 29 May Select Committee meeting, the nature of the future school should be a key consideration in future planning. This is a question that needs to be answered sooner rather than later.

Given the medium-term need for a new primary school on the peninsula, one of the strong possibilities is the construction of a Yr 1-13 school. Such a school would have a minimal short-term impact on the Yr 7 and 8 levels at the four contributing full primary schools and would facilitate ‘gentle’ management of the network, as opposed to ‘decapitation.’ Surges in cohorts could be managed within the primary schools or within the College over the course of a decade or longer until a predictable pattern emerges. This would also reduce the impact on Otumoetai Intermediate and Tauranga Intermediate, both of which draw students from this catchment.

Given the spectacular growth in primary aged student numbers on the peninsula, even before the recent opening of the Special Housing Area, there is likely to be a significant increase in this cohort over the next five years. Three new early childhood centres have opened in the past two years. If the primary demand catches up with the existing secondary demand the Ministry may end up building two schools at once via separate procurement processes. Economies of scale can be achieved by completing these projects at the same time.

The construction of a new school creates the potential for instability and highlights the need to conduct genuine, effective consultation with neighbouring schools. Therefore it would appear sensible to commence the establishment process as soon as possible in order to highlight and resolve any issues. A more certain future will also help guide the decisions of current primary school parents who may, at some stage, be faced with the decision of whether to transition from a full primary to an intermediate then to a Tauranga college, or remain at the full primary school and transition to year 9 at Omokoroa College.

Page 15! CONCERNS WITH MINISTRY ANALYSIS

As mentioned in the first section of this paper, we believe that the Ministry has confused this issue by focusing their analysis on the Omokoroa Census Area Unit (CAU). This section identifies a range of issues with the Ministry’s analysis as described in Annex I that should perhaps be explored further by the Select Committee.

Section Ministry analysis Comment

Number of students As of October 2018 there are The Ministry ignores these numbers and decides to focus on 1,109 students enrolled in the the Omokoroa CAU, incorrectly ignoring the fact that students contributing schools, and 1,515 from beyond the CAU will attend a new College. The Ministry secondary students resident in notes that the previous business case was unclear on the the area. proposed catchment area. In reality the catchment area is clearly inferred by reference to the contributing schools.

Students living outside of the The Ministry’s analysis fails to take into account that families catchment area moving out of a district often leave the child enrolled at the same school for the sake of continuity. This equally applies to neighbouring schools - there are students living in the catchment that are enrolled at Tauranga or Katikati schools. Students from split-families may have their address recorded as being within the catchment or outside of the catchment, depending on where the parents live. 11% of the Te Puna School roll Te Puna’s principal confirmed that many students are from have a home address outside of split families and only one address is recorded in the the catchment area enrolment system.

“Unlikely that a large number of There is no evidence to support this statement. Principals students would attend a new estimate that between 30% and 90% of students will attend a secondary school in Omokoroa.” new college. Estimated primary schools rolls Principal estimates of rolls at end of 2019 = 1,219 at end of 2021 = 1,193.

Population projections Focus on Omokoroa CAU This section focuses on the Omokoroa CAU which represents only 20% of the population for the contributing CAUs.

Focus on eventual population of Irrelevant for this analysis, given that the key issue is ensuring Omokoroa number = 12,000 that the College will be of a sufficient size at commencement. There is no doubt that the long-term population will support a College, the key question is when to open it. Reference to number of people No reference to change in actual number of primary aged per household = 2.3 students in CAU. Omokoroa Point School roll in 2014 was 193. 2019 predicted roll is 302.

Page 16! Section Ministry analysis Comment Proportion of students choosing In reality, far fewer parents will subject their students to a long types of school is based on bus journey and fewer extra-curricular opportunities when a transport factors to each school local College is available. being equal

Omokoroa CAU comprising These are statistically unlikely to be counted via the census holiday-makers and therefore are irrelevant to this analysis. Ministry projections of a This is open to challenge given that the Ministry has population of 20,000 being disregarded the surrounding CAUs, is using outdated necessary. demographic data, and assumes that parents will continue to subject children to long bus journeys rather than sending them to a local college

Roll of the proposed new school Western Bay Council provided This is inaccurate - roll data was sourced from the Ministry via data to the petitioners the Education Counts website and was current at the time of writing. Roll numbers have since increased.

20% of students will continue to There is no data to support this assumption. At present, travel opt for a special character times for the range of schools are similar. A new College will mean a choice between a school a few minutes away or one a great distance away 26% of students to opt for There is no data to support this assumption. At present, travel single-sex schooling times for the range of schools are similar. A new College will mean a choice between a school a few minutes away or one a great distance away. Parents will also need to drive to meet the school bus - no door-to-door service will be available

Removed 100% of Te Puna Te Puna principal advises that many student locations are students from analysis as some inaccurate due to split-family living. In some cases one parent live in Tauranga City. lives in the Te Puna catchment and the other parent lives in Tauranga City. Effect on single-sex schools Combined rolls of single-sex schools is 4.2% higher than four years ago. One local principal advise that TBC is considering a reduction to enrolment scheme.

Final capacity of TGC Logically, it would make sense to stabilise the roll at TGC rather than building for capacity that may no longer be present once an Omokoroa College has been built.

Page 17! APPENDIX 1 - DISTRICT MAP

Page 18!

APPENDIX 2 - NEW SECONDARY SCHOOLS

457

544

700

817

595

277

933

479

1078

1302

1100

2018 adj 2018

34

39

45

Attrition

734

856

978

Preference

7-13

9-13

7-10

9-10

7-13

7-10

11-13

11-12

levels

Current yr yr Current

457

544

595

277

431

319

roll

1223

1223

1223

1302

1100

Current Current

886

221

290

270

105

-23%

432

124

roll

107

161

222

449

657

233

Yr 13 2018 13 Yr

Opening Opening

Yr Yr

2013

2014

2011

2017

2017

2011

2016

2017

opened

273

367

383

121

1144

Yr 12 2017 12 Yr

87

897

233

250

327

-22%

Secondary 7-13 Secondary

Secondary 9-13 Secondary

Secondary 11-13 Secondary

Secondary 7-10 Secondary

Secondary 9-13 Secondary

Secondary 7-15 Secondary

Secondary 7-10 Secondary

Secondary 11-13 Secondary

School Type School

Yr 13 2017 13 Yr

281

332

424

112

1149

Rotorua

Auckland

Auckland

Auckland

Christchurch

Tauranga

Hamilton

Hamilton

Location

Yr 12 2016 12 Yr

Tarawera High School High Tarawera

Secondary School Secondary

Hobsonville Point Point Hobsonville

Omokoroa College (60%) College Omokoroa

Omokoroa College (70%) College Omokoroa

Ormiston Senior College Senior Ormiston

Ormiston Junior College Junior Ormiston

Omokoroa College (80%) College Omokoroa

Rolleston College Rolleston

Papamoa College Papamoa

Rototuna Jnr High School High Jnr Rototuna

Rototuna Snr High School High Snr Rototuna

School

6

5

4

3

2

1

Tauranga Girls’ College Girls’ Tauranga

Tauranga Boys’ College Boys’ Tauranga

Otumoetai College Otumoetai

Katikati College Katikati

School

Rank

Year-by-year attrition rates

This table does not include Christchurch urban schools, integrated schools or Maori medium schools. medium Maori or schools integrated schools, urban Christchurch include not does table This

year-end roll, adjusted for preference and Yr 13 attrition. attrition. 13 Yr and preference for adjusted roll, year-end

ranking purposes. Rolls are ranked alongside the potential roll of an Omokoroa College. Roll numbers for Omokoroa are based on 2019 estimated estimated 2019 on based are Omokoroa for numbers Roll College. Omokoroa an of roll potential the alongside ranked are Rolls purposes. ranking

where the school has not been open long enough to have students across all year levels. Junior and Senior school rolls have been combined for for combined been have rolls school Senior and Junior levels. year all across students have to enough long open been not has school the where This table shows secondary-level schools that have opened in the last decade. It shows their opening and present rolls, adjusted in situations situations in adjusted rolls, present and opening their shows It decade. last the in opened have that schools secondary-level shows table This

Page 19!