Auc Geographica 54 2/2019

ACTA UNIVERSITATIS CAROLINAE

AUC GEOGRAPHICA 54 2/2019

CHARLES UNIVERSITY • KAROLINUM PRESS AUC Geographica is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia Štěpán Nosek*

Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Social Geography and Regional Development, Czechia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to critically review recent EU level debates on territorial impact assessment, which serves as a tool to improve the understanding of uneven territorial impacts of the EU sectoral policies. The paper also seeks to elicit (1) which Europe- an countries employ territorial impact assessment when designing various national policies and (2) how this tool is used in different governance environments. Particular attention is paid to the case of Czechia. The paper elaborates upon the state-of-the-art tools used on a national level and analyses the motivation of actors on regional and local levels to use such tools in their decision-making process. The research shows that EU member states that employ this tool can be categorized into four groups, for instance, depending on whether they enrich other impact assessments tools by territorial aspects, or whether they focus coherence of regional development strategies and sectoral strategies. Territorial impact assessment is not implemented in Czechia, although recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest concerning territorial aspects of investments.

KEYWORDS Territirorial Impact Assessment; European Union; Czechia

Received: 27 April 2019 Accepted: 4 July 2019 Published online: 20 August 2019

Nosek, Š. (2019): Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia. AUC Geographica 54(2), 117–128 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.1 © 2019 The Author. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). 118 Štěpán Nosek

1. Introduction with special attention to TIA. Chapter 3 analyses the current state of the art in selected European coun- For a long time, there has been a quest to understand tries in using TIA or similar tools. Chapter 4 focuses spatial or territorial consequences of public policies on Czechia and explains how TIA or similar tools are (Nijkamp and Van Pelt 1989). Some public policies are employed. Chapter 5 summarizes the main conclu- focused directly on increasing the development poten- sions and presents several suggestions for further tial of certain regions (regional policy). Other public development of TIA in the Czech context. policies are not directly focused on regions, but their From a methodological standpoint, the paper is impact is often greater compared to explicit region- based mostly on content analysis of available docu- al policies. For decades, there have been attempts to ments dealing with the topic of policy evaluation and develop tools which would enable to assess or to mea- (territorial) impact assessment in particular coun- sure a spatial impact of public policies. tries. This source of information has been comple- mented with questionnaires sent to academics and to assess the impact of policies or projects with a focus on Inenvironmental the 1970s, first and tools economic emerged impacts in the (e.g. USA Caldwell in order the study was to elaborate on the current situation in 1988; Bond and Pope 2012; Francis 1975). However, TIApublic use officials in all EU in countries.several countries. Thus, respondents The ambition were of geographers have been traditionally interested in asked an open question, i.e. to describe use of TIA in more complex tools assessing all aspects of territorial particular EU member states. Combination of those development. Discussions at the EU level regarding the two sources (content analysis and questionnaires) territorial dimension and territorial cohesion paved enabled to divide EU member states into four cate- the way for more complex tools enabling a holistic gories (see Chapter 3 and Table 2). Nonetheless, rel- approach in the evaluation of impact on territorial evant information has not been found in case of par- development (e.g. Medeiros 2017). ticular countries. The analysis concerning Czechia is based on this assessment (TIA) is a distinctly EU policy assessment author’s experience gained at the Czech Ministry closelyAccording connected to Fischer to the et al. EU territorial (2015), territorial cohesion impact agen- of Regional Development and at the International da and “does not make much sense in, e.g. the USA Advisory Centre for Municipalities, which imple- where people are used to move to areas of greater mented impact assessment techniques in the city of economic opportunity” (p. 9). The Territorial Agenda of the European Union 2020 (European Commission 2011) states that territorial cohesion “enables equal Litoměřice. opportunities for citizens and enterprises, wherever 2. The Role of Impact Assessment Tools they are located” (p. 3). Following the addition of ter- in Policy Coordination ritorial cohesion among strategic goals of the Europe- an Union in 2009, it seems to be even more important It is only natural that since the addition of territo- to evaluate potentially uneven territorial impacts of rial cohesion among the European Union’s goals, it particular projects, strategies, or policies. has become even more pressing to assess territorial Territorial Impact Assessment is a tool which impacts of sectoral policies that do not explicitly fol- appeared in a practical debate in 1989 with the launch of the European Spatial Development Perspective particular regional policies in different national con- (ESDP; Zonneveld and Waterhout 2009). textslow regional are, the policy Territorial goals – no Impact matter Assessment what the method goals of- - ology has been developed as a tool to measure poten- ically review recent developments regarding impact assessmentThe aims tools of this at thepaper EU arelevel twofold: and, secondly, firstly, toto anal crit- Marot 2011). yse awareness about these tools and the current state tialTIA territorial might effectsbe understood of sectoral as policies a new (Golobič addition and to a vast array of impact assessment tools that have Czechia. Czechia was selected for a case study due to been applied since the 1970s. Impact assessment, theof their fact thatimplementation the author of in this one paper EU member has followed state – in the which is mostly used and embedded in legislation of discussion and subsequent application of territorial many countries all over the world focuses primarily on economic and environmental dimensions (see years. Therefore, the paper seeks primarily to answer Table 1). However, proper evaluation of impacts on theseimpact questions: assessment in this country over the past five territorial development should include other dimen- (Q1) How do European countries deal with the sions as well. Stutz and Warf (2012) state that, “in challenge of evaluating territorial impacts of their conventional usage development is a synonym for policies? economic growth” (p. 268). Nevertheless, territorial (Q2) What is the current state of Territorial Impact development should be understood in a more com- Assessment implementation in Czechia? plex way, Medeiros (2017) concludes that territorial The paper unfolds as follows: Chapter 2 presents - an overview of different types of impact assessment ic competitiveness, social cohesion, environmental development should follow five main goals: econom Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia 119

Tab. 1 Types of Impact Assessment.

Impact assessment focused on Complex Impact Assessments Economic dimension Environmental dimension Social dimension Examples Cost-benefit analysis Environmental Impact Poverty Impact Assessment Territorial Impact Assessment Assessment Regulatory Impact Health Impact Assessment Impact Assessment (European Union) Assessment Strategic Impact Assessment Source: Author sustainability, sound processes of territorial gover- assessments embedded in the law in other advanced countries. However, according to Nijkamp and Van or territorial articulation. TIA is then supposed to Pelt (1989), the OECD collected a number of case encompassnance, and all efficient those dimensions. processes of spatial planning studies of urban impact analyses in Sweden, Canada, or France. 2.1 Impact assessment – definition and origins In the late 1980s, the term strategic environmen- The purpose of impact assessment is to assess poten- tal assessment was coined in an interim report to tial impacts of certain actions before they are imple- the European Commission (Fungisland Tetlow and mented (Hayes 2017). Impact assessment is thus Hanusch 2012). Strategic environmental assessment supposed to evaluate what might happen as a direct of policies and strategies has been clearly developed consequence of a particular project, strategy, or a poli- upon the practice of Environmental Impact Assess- cy. Today, there are more than 40 types of IA discussed ment (EIA) focused on the level of projects. However, whereas EIA is primarily concerned with how a cer- most frequently used ones are Environmental Impact tain proposed development could affect the environ- Assessments,in literature (Morrison-SaundersStrategic Environmental et al. Impact 2014). Assess The- ment, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) was ment, or Regulatory Impact Assessments, which are also supposed to analyse potential effects of alterna- embedded in law in most of countries. tive developments early in the decision-making pro- - cess (Fungisland Tetlow and Hanusch 2012).

EnvironmentalThe first impact Impact assessments Statement focused (EIS), whichon environ came 2.2 Territorial Impact Assessment of projects, intomental force impacts: on January the first 1, 1970 legally in thebinding USA IA(Bond was andthe policies and future trends Pope 2012). This tool was aimed at federal actions Since the addition of territorial cohesion among the goals of the European Union in 2009, the importance of evaluating potential territorial impacts of policies, usedthat mightfor large significantly projects such affect as dams the quality or nuclear of human power strategies or particular projects became yet more plantsenvironment but it was (Francis also used 1975). for assessmentAt first, the of tool smaller was relevant, at least in the European context. Neverthe- projects in urban environment relatively soon (Fran- less, policy-evaluation tools were developed already cis 1975). in 1980s as an integral part of the Structural Funds The system of impact analysis in the United States intervention process (Medeiros 2017). Between 1995 was strengthened in the 1980s, when the Urban and and 1999, the European Commission (EC) produced Community Impact Analysis (UCIA) was developed a detailed evaluation methodology under the MEANS as a consequence of Jimmy Carter’s presidential cam- programme, which inter alia clearly distinguished - - icy. The main aim of the impact assessment program nected to direct measurable consequences, the latter waspaign to promise ensure that to develop there will the be first no actionsexplicit contradicturban pol- focusedbetween on “results” long-term and consequences. “impacts”. The Medeiros first one (2017) con ing the urban policy (Hack and Langendorf 1980). analysed “the MEANS collection” and concluded that Glickman (1980) summarizes the methodology as “the notion of territorial impacts is entirely absent” being focused on assessing policies rather than proj- and that “no concrete references are made to the need ects and being focused on places rather than people for a more holistic impact assessment” (p. 149). UCIA was being focused on assessing macroeconomic Another set of documents dealing with TIA were impacts. Evers (2011) understands the Urban Impact the outcomes stemming from the EVALSED pro- Analysis as a clear predecessor to the TIA, since “it sought gramme concluded in 2008 (updated in 2013). to assess the impact of non-urban policies (region- According to Medeiros (2017), EVALSED took territo- al, local or even international) on urban areas” (p. 8). rial dimension of policy evaluation more into account. The implementation of the Urban Impact Analysis sparked a debate concerning potential unintended Assessment (IA) guidelines only in 2005. Surprisingly, spatial effects of public policies. With the exception theThe guidelines European did Commission not include released any reference its first toImpact “ter- of the United States, there were no impact analyses or ritorial impacts”; instead they have focused on the 120 Štěpán Nosek assessment of economic, social, and environmental introduction of the TIA Quick Check Tool. This interac- impacts in a way that is complementary to SEA, and tive web-based tool was introduced by ESPON in 2015 EIA (Tscherning, König, Birthe, Helming and Sieber and enables to measure territorial impacts at the level 2007). At the same time, during public consultation of the NUTS 3 regions. The TIA Quick Check Tool Is to the IA procedure, the EC published guidelines to based on the ESPON ARTS methodology and was pre- assess regional and local impacts, which could be pared by the Austrian Institute for Spatial Planning. However, according to Medeiros (2017), the TIA quick procedure (Medeiros 2017). consideredAs a result as theof allfirst these EC attempt programs to establishand activities, a TIA crucial components of territorial impact evaluation. the awareness about TIA, at least on the European Medeiroscheck tool (2017) is too simplifiedcalls for a and more does robust not include(and rele all- level, was growing. The European Commission doc- vant) evaluation technique, despite the fact that such techniques demand more resources and time. on Economic Social and Territorial Cohesion” includ- Overall, one can argue that TIA moved from a tool umented a statement “Investing that in “both Europe’s policies Future – Fifth with and without Report to be used for assessment of territorial impact of projects (Austria, Germany) to a tool used for evaluation assessment of territorial impact” (European Commis- of potential territorial impacts of policies. There have sionan explicit 2010, p.spatial 195). dimension could benefit from an been even efforts to analyse territorial impacts of However, at the beginning (in the 1990s and future trends (for instance Böhme and Lüer 2017). the 2000s), TIA was conceived rather as an ex-post Broadly speaking, the methodology of TIA is sim- assessment tool of the EU policies such as the Com- ilar to those of EIA and SEA, or other impact assess- mon Agricultural Policy or Transport and Trans-Euro- ment tools. All of these methodologies “explore the pean Network Policies and was based on quantitative causal links between proposed actions and impacts” - The European Spatial Development Perspective models (Fischer et al. 2015). as(Perdicoulis prescriptive et al. regarding 2016, p. 42).which EIA, procedures SEA, or Cost should Ben development of a TIA methodology as one of key tasks beefit followed Analyses and (CBA) which methodologies aspects should can bebe considered addressed forAction the PlanEuropean adopted Spatial in Tampere Planning in Observation1999 defined Net the- - posed to be more holistic, and should also take into account(Fischer et al.,governance 2015). TIA,arrangements. on the other According hand, is sup to towork support (ESPON) numerous (Fischer research et al. 2015). projects. ESPON Thus, enabled it was Evers (2011), the emergence of TIA methodology has theto involve ESPON experts programme in the field (established of TIA and in subsequently 2002) that also been caused by the need “to gain information on - policy effects within an increasingly fragmented pub- odologies. According to Medeiros (2017), the ESPON lic sector” (p. 76). programmetriggered the funded development more than of first 20 rigorousanalyses TIAdedicated meth Medeiros (2017) sees TIA as a tool with a significant potential to replace the EIA and SEA, since all but only a few of them could be regarded as TIA tools. existing TIA methodologies take into account the to the identification of impact of EU sectoral policies, environmental dimension. However, it might be into several period which demonstrates gradual shift a challenging task, given the path-dependency of pub- ofFischer TIA design. et al. (2015) divide ESPON methodologies lic policies. Consequently, when compared to its pre- decessors focusing on impacts in a narrow sense (EIA, use of quantitative models and ex-post assessment of SEA, CBA), TIA enables to evaluate a potential impact particularFirst period European (2004–2006) policies (e.g.was Commoncharacterized Agricul by- in a more complex way (Evers 2011). tural Policy). During this period for instance STIMA (Spatial Telecommunications IMpact Assessment) assessment tools and concludes that TIA is “the most methodology has been established (see ESPON 2004). Medeiros (2014) summarizes briefly all impact take into consideration all the aspects of territorial 2010) were still based on quantitative models, but developmentdifficult and complete (socio-economic, IA procedure, environmental, since it needs gov to- focusedMethodologies mostly on prepared ex-ante assessment. in second period This was(2008– the ernance and spatial organization)” (p. 198). However, case for instance for TEQUILA tool/model which according to Medeiros (2015), the territorial develop- included all dimensions and components of the con- ment does not equal the sum of socio-economic and cept of territorial cohesion (Medeiros 2017), but the environmental impacts. Medeiros (2018 and 2019) also - suggests to apply TIA to evaluate spatial planning processes and (Medeiros 2019) and sectoral policies, for resultsqualitative were models difficult and to more read participatory (Medeiros 2017). approach. Spe instance cross-border cooperation (Medeiros 2018). cificThird was periodARTS methodology (since 2012) whichis connected admitted especial use of- According to Medeiros (2015), the economic dimension of policy evaluation has always been omni- present because of the “strong position of economists methods.ly with EATIA EATIA methodology is still based which on ex-ante brings assessment. significant simplification of TIA procedure and use of qualitative Medeiros (2015, p. 9) also explains that complex IA in this particular scientific field of policy evaluation”. Another step in a quest for simplification was the Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia 121 tools started to be tested after some of the EU stra- Regarding TIA implementation EU countries could tegic documents explicitly recognized the “territorial be distinguished into several categories which are not dimension as a key element of policy intervention”. mutually exclusive. First category consists of German Medeiros (2015, p. 9) suggests that there is a main- speaking countries (chapter 3.1). Second category stream vision that policies should contribute primar- represents countries where focus on compliance ily to the economic development. Nevertheless, he with regional or sustainable development strategy is calls for a more holistic approach that would take into required when sectoral policies are designed (chap- account several other dimensions of development ter 3.2). Countries in third category (chapter 3.3.) such as social cohesion, environmental sustainability, enrich traditional impact assessment tools by terri- territorial governance and spatial planning. Similar- torial aspects. Countries in fourth category (chapter ly, Zonneveld and Waterhout (2009) argue that TIA 3.4) elaborate Territorial Impact Assessment ad-hoc “has to focus on the impact of policy and contextual in order to assess impact assessment of large projects, developments on the spatial organization and spatial or European directives/policies. position of spaces and places” (p. 3). 3.1 TIA as a traditional tool in German speaking countries 3. TIA implementation in EU member states Tools similar to TIA are used traditionally mostly in German-speaking countries. The roots of TIA can be TIA at the EU level certainly represents a valuable traced back to tools used traditionally in Austria, Ger- tool that helps to understand unintended territori- many, and Switzerland. Even the fact that the term ter- al impacts of EU policies or new legislature. Never- ritorial impact assessment is directly translated from its German equivalent demonstrates that the roots of the tool can be traced in the German-speaking world Therefore,theless, such TIA a toolat the at theEU EU-levellevel should cannot be reflectfollowed all (Othengrafen and Cornett 2013; Healy 2001). In Aus- byspecificities national TIAsat the (Zonneveld national, regional, and Waterhout or local 2009).levels. tria and Germany, TIA is used extensively for ex-ante However, according to Medeiros (2017), no EU mem- evaluation of major projects. ber state or other country has encoded a mandatory Particularly in Austria, the use of TIA can be traced use of TIA. Consequently, the TIA procedures could be back to 1959, thus even predating the introduction labelled as an “EU experiment” (Medeiros 2017). of EIA (Healy 2001). In German-speaking countries, In European countries, different techniques are competences of different levels of public administra- employed to ensure that sectoral (non-regional) tion (national, regional, and local) are set out very interventions are in line with the principles of region- - ous factors, including the governance system, admin- theclearly federal (Tosics systems et al. 2010). of Germanic This holds countries true for result spatial in al policy (no matter how defined). Obviously, numer aplanning strong regional as well. level According of planning. to Tosics et al. (2010), way (territorial) impact assessment is implemented Particular authors even declare that TIA is embed- (Meulemanistrative cultures, 2015). and Meuleman political settings,(2015) suggests influence that the ded in Austrian, German, or Swiss Law (e.g. Zonne- the governance approach may vary: it can be more veld and Waterhout 2009). This was, nevertheless, market-driven in Anglo-Saxon countries, more net- dismissed by Dallhammer (2016) who argues that work-driven in northwest Europe, and more hier- “Raumverträglichkeitsprüfung” (which is a tool shar- archical in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe. ing similarities with TIA) is proceeded on volun- Each governance system implies certain weaknesses, tary basis and only in particular federal states (e.g. - Carinthia). en model, the risk of losing focus in a network-driv- Paradoxically, Austria does not have a very strong ensuch approach, as prioritization or rigidity of efficiency in the hierarchical in a market-driv model explicit regional policy (Polvevari and Michie 2011). (Meuleman 2015). The Austrian Conference on Spatial Planning has Within the EATIA project, there were some, albeit been established only in 1971 in order to enhance limited, efforts to disseminate the European TIA meth- cross-sectoral coordination. The body comprises odology to particular EU member states (Slovenia, Por- representatives of the state (Bund), federal states (Länder), and municipalities. Each ten years the Aus- of the conclusions stemming from the dissemination trian Spatial Development Concept is adopted to coor- tugal, the United Kingdom) (Fischer et al. 2015). One- dinate federal policies with spatial impact and poli- ible enough to be adaptable to different policy-making cies implemented by Länder (Polvevari and Michie of results was a suggestion that the TIA concept is flex 2011). Similarly, in Germany, sectoral policies are (e.g. Golobic and Marot 2011) and Portuguese (e.g. coordinated through the Regional Joint Task (Polve- traditions (Fischer et al. 2015). Although Slovenian vari and Michie 2011). Germany evaluates ex-ante impacts of trans- PortugalMedeiros TIA 2015) procedures academics are contributedstill rather unknown significantly con- port infrastructure or large retail projects “to verify ceptto the (Marot research 2015; in the Medeiros field of 2015).TIA, both in Slovenia and whether these are in line with the aims and objectives 122 Štěpán Nosek

2013, p. 13). The process (called Raumordnungsver- evaluates impacts on services, infrastructure, busi- offahren) official usually planning takes policies” around (Othengrafen three months. and AccordCornett- ness,impacts employment, on rural areas environment (Hague 2010). etc. Rural (Department proofing ing to Healy (2001), the German procedure is focused for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2017). In on testing the conformity of new projects and new 2011, IA Toolkit was published by the Department for regional plans with existing plans. Bundesländers Business, Innovation and Skills (2011). In the British (sixteen units) are in charge of this process. The use of impact assessments in the United Kingdom 3.2 TIA as tool to align territorial priorities with hascontext, been IA discussed is based inmostly connection on a cost-benefit with Brexit, analysis. but no sectoral and regional strategies impact assessment of Brexit has been conducted so Such strategy is relevant for instance for Switzerland, far. This was later criticized by Fischer and Sykes (2017), who suggested that impact assessment tak- states that the implementation of the document is ing into account not just economic impact but a wider coordinatedwhere Sustainable by the Development interdepartmental Strategy 2016–2019 Sustaina- scale of impact should be conducted in case of Brex- ble Development Committee, which is supposed to it, because it is clear that it is going to have uneven ensure the incorporation of sustainable development regional impacts. principles into sectoral policies (Swiss Federal Coun- cil 2016). 3.4 Ad-hoc use of TIA Similar strategies are employed in Ireland, where Such TIAs were applied in Netherlands, Poland, or the compliance of strategies at both local and regional Lithuania. In the Netherlands, there is no standard levels with the Irish National Spatial Strategy is a key TIA procedure. Large projects are usually assessed requirement (Hague 2010), and in Estonia (Ministry of Regional Development 2018) where compliance with the most important elements of the Estonian analysisvia a cost-benefit (Evers 2016). analysis. Nonetheless, Currently, thethere Netherlands are efforts experiencedto include a social an ad-hoc dimension implementation via a social of cost-benefit TIA in con- assessed while preparing new regulations, strategic nection with possible regional implications of the policyRegional documents, Development and grant Strategy schemes for 2014–2020 supported by is EU’s policies. According to Evers (2011), the Dutch the EU Structural Funds. Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Envi- ronment requested the Environmental Assessment dimension of strategic documents have been pre- Agency to conduct TIA as a reaction to the European paredIn Poland in order specific to bridge document the gap entitledbetween Territorialterritorial territorial cohesion policy and to the energy-climate and sectoral strategic documents (Szlachta, Zaucha package. Evers (2011) stresses that “given the two and Komornicki 2017). Similar tool with focus on very different points of the policy process, the studies operational programmes have been invoked in Cze- are very different in character in terms of methodol- chia (see chapter 4). ogy and conclusions” (p. 98). The TIA focusing on the European territorial cohesion policy was affected by 3.3 TIA as an enrichment of traditionally used tools This strategy is relevant for Finland, Belgium, or contrast, the energy-climate package had clearly stip- Denmark. Those countries use standard EIA, SEA, not having a clear definition of territorial cohesion. In or Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) procedures policy actions in order to meet targets. Ad hoc impact and “upgrade” them, at least in some cases in order assessmentsulated goals areand undertaken it was thus asambition well for oflarge TIA projects to find to assess wider development processes. Finnish EIA (Poland), or after implementation of the EU program- aims to evaluate not only the impact on human health ming period (Lithuania). and environmental aspects (soil, water, air, climate etc.), but also the impact on “the urban structure, buildings, landscape, townscape and cultural herit- 4. Summary age”. (Ministry of Environment Finland 2009). Simi- larly, in Wallonia the EIA procedure was adjusted in Table 2 shows that there is a rather limited use of order to encompass certain aspects of TIA (Hague Territorial Impact Assessment or similar tools across 2001; Böhme and Lüer 2017). Denmark held discus- European countries. Nevertheless, according to sever- sions regarding a holistic approach within the EIA al studies (e.g. Dabrowski 2012; Raagmaa and Stead procedure currently, as well (Kørnøv, Christensen and 2015), a certain trend towards Europeanization of Nielsen 2005). In another cases the RIA is “upgraded”. public policies can be observed especially in Central This is the case for Belgium and its Flemish Region, where RIA includes the Sustainable Development planning and regional policy. This might be seen, for Impact Assessment (OECD 2010; Huge and Waas instance,and Eastern in Partnership Europe, especially Agreements in the signedfields of between spatial 2011). the European Commission and particular member - states, which include an analysis of tools to be used by the member states to enhance the territorial approach The United Kingdom has specific impact assess ment called rural proofing, which evaluates potential Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia 123

Tab. 2 Typology of TIA use in EU member states and Switzerland.

Type of TIA use Description Countries

TIA used extensively for ex-ante impact TIA encoded in the law Germany, Austria assessment of large infrastructure projects TIA as tool to align of territorial priorities Compliance of policies, plans, or strategies with sectoral and regional strategies compared with main regional development Estonia, Ireland, Switzerland, Poland strategies TIA as an enrichment of traditionally used Territorial aspects more or less incorporated Belgium, Finland, Greece, Denmark, Great Britain tools into existing evaluation techniques TIA used “when needed” such as before Ad-hoc TIA implementation of European directives and Netherlands policies into national contexts Mostly Central and European countries Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, No TIA procedure declare no use of standard TIA procedures Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal During desk research no relevant information Sweden, Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, France, No relevant information founded regarding TIA in seven EU countries has been Luxembourg found Source: Author in implementation of the EU cohesion policy (Nosek 2017). Ministry of Industry and Trade or Ministry of Envi- The position of (spatial) planning in Central and ronment.often considered As a consequence, less influential certain in ministriescomparison see with the territorial dimension concept as a threat and inter- mostly because planning of any kind was associated vention into its competencies. withEastern the European communist countries regime in by the both 1990s policy-makers was difficult, Czechia is one of the countries which do not use and population in general (Raagmaa and Stead 2015). TIA methodology at the national level. However, an There is no doubt that an EU membership push- interest in the tool has been growing in recent years, es member states to adopt changes in the strategic similarly to other Central and Eastern European planning process (Dabrowski 2012), including an countries and certain measures have been taken to application of more sophisticated methods in impact assessment. Therefore, it can be expected that some sort of mapping of territorial impact will become adjust sectoral policies in order to reflect territorial more embedded in spatial planning processes in the specificities. near future. 5.1 TIA at the policy level in 2014–2020 Namely, some Central and Eastern European coun- programming period tries plan to apply impact assessments tools over the According to the Partnership Agreement between next few years. This is the case, for instance, in Roma- the European Commission and Czechia concluded in nia, which expects that the methodology for mea- 2014, the territorial dimension is in the Czech context suring territorial impact of sectoral policies will be understood as a possibility to concentrate resources approved by the Government following the approval from the European Structural and Investments Funds of the Territorial Development Strategy (Ministry of Regional Development 2018). competitiveness and moderating territorial dispari- ties(ESIF) (social, in specific economic, types environmental). of territories supporting both In Czechia, a relatively comprehensive approach 5. The case of Czechia to incorporate the territorial dimension into the pro- - - oped. In particular, a special document called the ticular Czech ministries, the Ministry of Regional Nationalgrammes Document within the for period Territorial 2014–2020 Dimension was (NDTD; devel DevelopmentAccording to theis obliged law defining to coordinate responsibilities other ministries of par Ministry of Regional Development 2015) was pre- in order to implement regional policy. Such setting might seem favourable for pushing sectoral ministries paredThe with incentive the aim for itsto existenceidentify, whichcame implicitly specific goals from Nonetheless, the actual promotion of regional theshould European be preferred Commission, in specific which types pushed of territories. for more toaspects reflect into regional sectoral specifics. strategies and policy-making territorially sensitive implementation of European process cannot be taken for granted. Such promotion Structural and Investment Funds. This document also demands numerous discussions and eventually also served as a “substitute” for Czech NUTS II regions - which implemented its own regional operational pro- ly lacking. The Ministry of Regional Development is political support – which is in Czech context frequent grammes in 2007–2013 programming period. 124 Štěpán Nosek

stipulating the territorial dimension within national grant schemes or national sectoral policies. For ruralOverall, areas, for eight socially types excluded of specific localities, territories for solving have example, even the Regional Development Strategy labourbeen identified market problems,in the NDTD for (e.g. enhancement for urban areas,of entre for- preneurship etc.). NDTD could be understood as a kind of ex-ante Czech2014–2020 Regional does Development not stipulate Strategyhow sectoral only policies identi- TIA. This document indicates which measures will are supposed to reflect territorial specificities. The- most likely have uneven territorial impacts, similar- ed powers as “economically weak” and without any ly to concepts described in the previous chapter and fies micro-regions of 57 municipalities with extend- applied by ESPON or by particular countries (e.g. gions should be taken into account within sectoral Austria or Germany). However, in contrast to ESPON policies.further specification states that these micro-re models, in Czechia, no data analysis has been per- Each year, progress evaluation in implementation of the NDTD is to be prepared. This evaluation have the territorial dimension. should be primarily based on an analysis of particular formed in order to decide which specific goals should calls for proposal and on an analysis of allocation of the state will distribute via the territorial dimension. funds. So far, evaluation has been prepared for years ResourcesThe NDTD used also for specifies addressing the thevolume territorial of funds dimen that- 2015, 2016, and 2017. According to the evaluations sion include funds distributed through tools designed to support urban development (i.e. Integrated Terri- torial Investments and Integrated Territorial Devel- Analysesfor the period of spatial 2015–2017, distribution the of calls allocation were of in funds most opment Plans) and tools aimed at rural development havecases been targeted limited at territories by poor quality specified of available by the NDTD. data- (Community-led Local Development). The total allo- bases, in which a large proportion of projects did not cation is expected to be approximately 8 billion EUR, include information concerning their localization at which is almost one third of the Czech allocation from the municipal level. Nonetheless, available data sug- the EU European Structural and Investment Funds. gest that the share of the Cohesion policy expected by The very existence of the NDTD might be seen as NDTD to be spend on the territorial dimension has progress in promoting the territorial dimension into been achieved. sectoral policy making. However, the NDTD was the The analysis of individual calls for proposals raised several important questions. First, the pivotal ques- and suffers from several weaknesses. The NDTD was tion was which calls should be declared as taking into first document of its kind implemented in Czechia account the territorial dimension. The NDTD did not - include any rigorous methodology in order to assess arguablyritorial dimension created too was late, thus since not it implementedwas finalized wellinto calls with regard to its territorial dimension. Eventu- afterthe operational the finalization programmes, of operational but programmes.it was described Ter ally, four types of possible scenarios have been identi- ex-post, based on discussion with responsible ministries/managing authorities. The NDTD does not cover national grant schemes fied by the Ministry of Regional Development: - and currently, there is no alternative document ry (for instance, on a selected NUTS 2 region). – The call is focused exclusively on a specific territo

Tab. 3 Territorial dimension in operational programmes in Czechia in 2014–2020.

Level of Territorial Operational Programme Description of Territorial Dimension Dimension Specific calls for certain type of regions (e.g. regions with socially excluded Integrated Regional OP High localities); Funds in certain calls distributed in accordance with regional needs. OP Entrepreneurship and Innovation for Regions with high unemployment rate or economically weak regions High Competitiveness benefited in selection process. Projects contributing to regional development priorities supported OP Transport Medium primarily. Most of the activities within Community-led Local Development financed via Rural Development Programme Medium Rural Development Programme. Local and regional action plans in education define local/regional priorities OP Research, Innovation and Education Medium in elementary schools and high schools. In certain cases specific territorial dimension applied – for instance localities OP Environment Low specified in flood plans. OP Employment Low Except of labour market policy. OP Prague – Growth pole Not Relevant Focused only on the Capital City of Prague. Source: Author Territorial Impact Assessment – European context and the case of Czechia 125

It might be argued that “territorial” stakeholders aim to ensure allocation of funds in future policies – The call explicitly declares the distribution of funds implementing the strategy. In their understanding, regionsamong a (e.g. specific those type with of regions/municipalities.an above-average rate of more territoriality equals higher chances to get fund- – unemployment).The call sets up the criteria favouring particular ed. Ministries, on other hand, aim to avoid, from their point of view, unnecessary intervention into their pol- that are concentrated in certain regions/territories icies. In such context, the role of Ministry of Regional – (i.e.The implicitcall is focused territorial on addressing dimension). specific problems Development might be seen as of a mediator.

When applying such criteria, it appeared that most 5.3 TIA at the Project level calls that were expected to have a territorial dimension indeed incorporated it in one way or another into in Czechia at the level of projects. Finally, in 2016, the the calls’ designs. MinistryUntil 2016, of Regionalthere was Development no certified publishedTIA methodology project The Ministry of Regional Development itself man- impact assessment methodology prepared in cooperation with regional policy experts. Following the pub- Regional Development Programme, which is seen as lication of this methodology, the Ministry of Regional ages in 2014–2020 programming period Integrated Development plans to start a project (to be imple- important aspects of regional development were howevera flagship implemented programme forby otherregions (sectoral) and cities. ministries, Certain as well. bemented implementing in 2019–2020) the methodology aimed at raising on all awareness hierarchical at Table 3 summarizes operational programmes the methodology and to train public officials who will also a plan to develop a software tool to guide poten- territorial dimension expected by National Document tiallevels – national, users through regional,the methodology. and municipal. There is forimplemented Territorial in Dimension. 2014–2020 programming period and This TIA methodology has been inspired by similar documents based on the initiative of the Europe- 5.2 Territorial dimension expectations in post-2020 an Commission (especially EC 2009), which includes period a list of potential impacts that should be taken into Discussions regarding implementation of post-2020 account when evaluating possible impacts of EU pol- programming period are already underway. Following icies. Therefore, the Czech methodology designed at the project level has been developed on the basis of large decrease of European funds allocation in Czechia the EU methodology, which, however, targeted the lev- issignificant expected growth in post-2020 of Czech period. economy Thus, in recentthe Regional years, el of policies. The TIA procedure is divided into two steps. In the territorial dimension within particular national sec- toralDevelopment policies inStrategy addition post-2020 to the territorial aims to dimensiondefine the the project proposal and decide whether the project embedded in operational programmes supported via first step, the evaluator must assess overall quality of the European Structural and Investment Funds. Discussion with bodies responsible for sectoral employment,will have a significant environment, territorial transport, impact market, or not. quality The policies again shows scepticism of sectoral minis- ofpotential life, and impact public is services. evaluated The in evaluatorthe following must fields: also tries regarding the role of Ministry of Regional Devel- assess what the level of impact is (average, important, opment. Promotion of regionally sensitive policies and fundamental). is often understood as a unnecessary intervention Project proposals that are considered as those with a potential socioeconomic impact are subject to fur- process. ther analysis. The subsequent procedure of the TIA whichRegional put artificial Development element Strategy into the post-2020 policy-making aims differs based on the scale of the potential impact in

Prior to 2016, TIA or similar methodologies were comparisonto elaborate to only its predecessor. topics with identifiedThus, key territorialquestions onlythe above-listed exceptionally fields. applied in Czech regions and/or appearingdimension andduring is supposed most of theto be discussions more specific are: with (1) municipalities. One of these exceptions was the city which topics have territorial dimension (i.e. needs - territorially sensitive solutions), and for those which sentatives decided to establish a procedure analog- icalof Litoměřice to TIA in order in Northern to measure Bohemia, the possible whose impact repre of project proposals supported by the city from the motivationshave, (2) how of itparticular can be defined stakeholders. in particular While fields?repre- economic, social, and environmental point of view. sentativesApparently, of the rural debate areas, is cities often and affected regions by haveconflicting a ten- The assessment is undertaken by “Sustainable Devel- dency to promote territoriality as much as possible, opment Strategic Team” consisting of the mayor or his/her deputy, members of the department of stra- (and respective policies) are spatially blind and no tegic development and the department of sustain- ministerial officers tend to declare that certain fields able development, and members of other relevant significant regional adjustments are needed. 126 Štěpán Nosek departments (depending on type of the project). The The second question focused solely on the recent resulting assessment is subsequently presented to development of TIA in Czechia. In this country, in the political representation and forms the basis for order to encompass the territorial dimension within the decision-making process. This process is similar to the one employed in Austrian Carinthia, as programming period, the National Document for Ter- described in Chapter 3. However, city representatives ritorialthe operational Dimension programmes has been approved for the EU by 2014–2020the govern- are not obliged to follow recommendations of this assessment. some shortcomings, it forced the sectoral ministries toment. take It the is the territorial first document dimension of itsinto kind account and, despiteby one way or another during implementation of operation- 6. Conclusions al programmes they are responsible for. Nevertheless, a large variety of interpretations of the term territorial Studies in the sphere of regional policy and region- dimension have been observed during the implemen- al development have emphasized uneven territorial tation phase of particular operational programmes. impacts of non-regional public policies for a long time. - Over the past two decades, the search for a sophis- ment has been recently accomplished in Czechia, as in ticated tool that would enable to analyse territorial 2016Finally, a TIA at methodology the project atlevel, the aproject significant level hasachieve been impacts of proposed interventions has already found published by the government. This came just in time several potential solutions. to assist some more active cities and regions in their Nevertheless, the ambitions behind the search for attempt to design an impact assessment approach to their own projects. Thus, the recently published TIA the one hand, the tool is supposed to be sophisticated methodology can stimulate stakeholders at the local enougha suitable to TIA take methodology into account seem all potential to be conflicting. territorial On and regional level to deal seriously with uneven ter- impacts, while, on the other hand, it should be sim- ritorial impacts of various public interventions. 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Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia): findings from a DEM Michal Kusák1,*, Vít Vilímek2, Jozef Minár3

1 Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic 2 Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Czech Republic 3 Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Slovak Republic * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT The morphometric analysis of lineaments, valleys and signs of erosion taken from a digital elevation model (DEM) made it possible to not only confirm most of the conclusions of the morphotectonic development of the Blue Nile Basin from the previously published results of structural, petrological, tectonic and geochronological analyses, but also to expand our knowledge by applying several new hypotheses. The relative age of the morpholineaments of particular directions was estimated from the character of topographic profiles. Faults, lineaments and valleys are predominantly oriented in a direction compatible to the published concepts of the tectonic development of the area. Overall, the most abundant NE-SW and NNE-SSW lines reflect a change of extension from a NW-SE to WNW-ESE direction during the Pliocene, in relation to the creation and development of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). This is confirmed by a more developed character of the valleys and less pronounced erosion activity of the NE-SW oriented valleys contrary to the deeper narrower NNE-SSW valleys characterised by downward and headward erosion in the second direction. The most pronounced morphological manifestations of the E-W extension of the MER and western Afar during the Quaternary are confined to the borders of the MER. The directions of the Pre-Neogene rift structures to the NW-SE and WNW-ESE are compatible with the oldest elements of the current landscape and with the relict fragments of the valley network on the SE boundary of the upper Blue Nile Basin, which could have been drained across current shoulders of the MER to the S and E before the Late Miocene.

KEYWORDS landscape evolution; neotectonics; river piracy; lineaments; DEM; Main Ethiopian Rift; Ethiopian Highlands

Received: 17 April 2019 Accepted: 28 June 2019 Published online: 26 August 2019

Kusák, M., Vilímek, V., Minár, J. (2019): Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia): findings from a DEM. AUC Geographica 54(2), 129–151 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.13

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). 130 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár

1. Introduction the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin. Lineaments are linearly arranged elements of the GaniThe et al. main 2007, objectives 2009; ofWolela this work 2010). are We to: focused 1) analyse on the morpholineaments, faults and valley networks of the Blue Nile Basin and their interrelationships; landscape – lineara potential zone of brittle sections fractures of a valley, of bedrock ridges and/ or orstraight the concentration sections of slopes – should of erosion processes be considered with anas and the geomorphological evolution, in order to determine2) study the which relation elements between are thepotential morpholineaments zones of brit- - tle fractures of bedrock and serve as concentrations mentsinfluence can on give the an geomorphological insight into landscape evolution evolution, of an for erosion processes; 3) identify areas with the most thusarea (Abdullahproviding informationet al. 2010). onAn tectonicanalysis activityof the linea over dynamic changes of valley networks. large areas, which is particularly useful for areas with Several works deal with the tectonic and volcanic history of the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin Highlands. Recently, the lineaments are increasingly usedlimited not field only access as a surface(Ehlen 2004),expression like theof individualEthiopian faults (fracture zones) but their statistics is used also (Abebe et al. 1998; Chorowicz et al. 1998; Wolfenden paidet al. to2004; the Pikrelated et al. geomorphic 1998, 2003; development. Kieffer et al. 2004;Local morphotectonicGani et al. 2009); and however, morphodynamic less attention aspects has beenhave to define/confirm the character (directions) of the mainly been investigated (Ayalew and Yamagishi palaeomorphotectonicIn this paper we aim stress to fields understand (Minár and relations Sládek 2008;between Koronovskya landforms andet al. the 2014; tectonic Šilhavý structures et al. 2016). of the - 2018).2003; Ismail Works and by Abdelsalam Gani and Abdelsalam 2012; Kusák (2006) et al. 2016; and - Mäerker et al 2016; Kycl et al. 2017; Gani and Neupne eneEthiopian and Abdelsalam Highlands, 2005; as the Gani region and Abdelsalam is strongly 2006;influ the selected aspects of geomorphic development. enced by tectonics (Kazmin 1975; Pik et al. 2003; Bey Gani et al. (2007) deal most comprehensively with

Fig. 1 Map of the Blue Nile basin and adjacent area, Ethiopian Highlands. Subregions particularly analyzed in the following text: 1 – the Jemma River; 2 – Beshlo Wenz River; 3 – Volcanoes Mt. Choke and Mt. Gish; 4 – Lake Tana; 5 – Didessa River and Baro River; A – Guder River and Muger River. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 131

They refuse the older idea that present physiography landscape area at a lower elevation and with gentle of the elevated plateau exists since the Oligocene (e.g. valley slopes is situated in the western part of the of incision rate of the Blue Nile initiates ca. 10 Ma ago. with a low vertical division (Figure 1). ThisPik et al. paper 2003) presents and they evidence argue from that thesatellite rapid data increase that studyThe area modern and thetopography Blue Nile of flows the area through formed the Tertia basin- - ry and Quaternary volcanism and tectonics. The uplift ing morphotectonic activity of the territory, specifying supportdirections young and space (Late impactMiocene – Quaternary) of palaeomorphotectonic increas ledof the to Ethiopianthe formation Highlands of faults (during and cracksthe last (Kazmin 29 Ma) and opening of the MER (during the last 18 Ma) has fields on the land surface development. 2. The study area: geomorphological and1975; Abdelsalam Pik et al. 2003; 2012). Beyene and Abdelsalam 2006; and geological settings GaniThe et al. plateau 2007; in Gani the easternet al. 2009; part Wolela of the study2010; areaIsmail is built by various types of Cenozoic volcanic rocks and The study area includes the Blue Nile Basin between several Cenozoic volcanoes tower above it. Erosion Lake Tana and the Roseires water reservoir by the Blue Nile and its tributaries exposed Jurassic 2) and the adjacent area (Figure 1). The and Crateceous sedimentary complexes in the valleys Blue Nile Basin consists of a large plateau that is incised into the plateau. The western part of the study inclined(175,400 km from the border of Afar and the MER (more area is built by a Precambrian crystalline complex and volcanics (Figure 2; Mangesha et al. 1996). The Ethiopian Highlands are marked by a num- than 3,000 m a.s.l.) to the W and NW (approximately- ber of faults increasing from the west to the east, bolian2,000 m Quaternary a.s.l.). Huge volcanoes Neogene areshield concentrated volcanoes towerto the SSWup to of 2,000 m Lake Tana above reach the severalplateau, hundreds and smaller of metersstrom Rift (Chorowitz 2005). The oldest Permo-Trias and Crateceous-Palaeogenewhere they border the MER – part rift systems of in the the East study African area tectono-thermal uplift of the rift shoulders and a swell - centredat most (Kiefferon the Lake et al. Tana 2004). basin Pliocene are responsible and Quaternary for the gor 2015). The main phase of extension in the MER have a NW-SE orientation (Gani et al. 2009; MacGre Ismail and Abdelsalam 2012; MacGregor 2015; Gani and the majority of fault activity occurred in the last andrecent Neupne elevation 2018). of the Uplift plateau caused (Chorowicz the rivers et al. to cut 1998; into started approximately 11 Ma (Ukstins et al. 2002)- the bedrock and divide the area by canyons and deep gor 2015). The NW-SE Late Miocene extension formed valleys with steep slopes linked to faults in the east- 5–9 Ma, and particularly in the last 1–2 Ma (MacGre

NE(NNE)-trending faults (Wolfenden et al. 2004; Gani ern part of the study area (Gani et al. 2009). An older et al. 2009). E-W and NNE-SSW Quaternary extensions

Fig. 2 Geological map of the Blue Nile basin and adjacent area, Ethiopian Highlands (scale 1 : 250,000; after Mangesha et al. 1996). 132 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár opening the MER are related to the development of mega-lineamentsand lineaments) for an analysis of the E-trending transverse faults. N-ESE- and NW-trending main directions of the landscape forming processes. extensional structures are connected with the NE-SW The faults in the Ethiopian Highlands were taken from Quaternary extension in southern Afar and the E-W the geological map of Ethiopia (scale 1 : 250,000; west of Addis Ababa, an elongated Yerer-Tullu Wellel A valley network model for the Ethiopian High- volcano-tectonicextension in western lineament Afar (Gani is probably et al. 2009). an inherent To the landsMangesha was et al.extracted 1996). from SRTM DEM by following structure, which has decoupled the Northern Ethiopi- method of Jenson and Domingue (1988) and using an Plateau and the MER as a transtensional dominant- ArcHydro tools in ArcGIS 10.2.: Fill  Flow Direction ly oblique E-W to ENE-WSW structure since the Late  Flow accumulation (ESRI 2015), i.e. the valley net- -

Miocene (Abebe et al. 1998). sink-likework was artefacts identified caused by analysing by noise the and flow inaccuracies accumula 3. Materials and methods intion the after original a filling DEM function dataset. that Thewas thresholdapplied to removeof contributing area for the valley network generation was 3.1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and satellite 1,000 pixels (0.9 km2). For the analysis of the azimuth images of stream channels, we converted the valley network In this paper we use the SRTM DEM 1 Arc-Second Glob- raster into a vector format. The azimuths of megalineaments, lineaments, and September 2014. Shaded relief images with varying faults were determined in terms of the orientation directionsal version of(resolution illumination ≈ 30 were m), createdwhich was in ArcMap released 10.2 in of lines to the coordinate system and the azimuth of (ESRI 2015) using the hillshade tool (Spatial Analyst stream channels was also determined as the orienta- Toolbox  Surface toolset). Various elevation angles tion of the stream channels (i.e. parts of valleys from of the illumination source (30°, 35°, 40° and 45°) and - four different values of illumination azimuth 1) from ence; or parts of valleys between two valley connec- tionthe valley points) heads to the to thecoordinate first point system. of the Thevalley azimuths conflu (solar azimuth of 45°), 3) from the east (solar azimuth were illustrated by rose diagrams, which are divided ofthe 90°), north and (solar 4) from azimuth the south-eastof 0°), 2) from (solar the azimuthnorth-east of into 72 intervals of 5° (360° in total). The numbers of 135°), were used in order to assure the independency lines in the rose diagrams were multiplied (weighted) of the results from the direction of illumination. This procedure maximizes the visualization of a surface for better observation and graphical display, to allow for by their length according to Belisario et al. (1999), the extraction of lineaments by using shaded-relief Ciotoli et al. (2003) and Kusák et al. (2016). - process by changing the illumination azimuth (Smith ed Moreover,by different several colours types (e.g. ofgreen, profiles red) were to determine created: the1) valley erosion cross-sections intensity and which(if possible) are in the figures relative depict age; - 3.2and Analysis Clark 2005; of linear Ahmed features et al. 2017). In the selected areas of the Ethiopian Highlands we MER2) long margin profiles to inreveal the landscape its block structures. to reveal the possibil mapped the linearly arranged elements of the land- ities of river piracy; 3) profiles perpendicularly to the scape, for example linear sections of valleys, ridges or straight sections of slopes. These linear landforms and 4. Results structures were manually mapped from: a) digital elevation model (hillshade images of various elevation 4.1 Aggregated characteristics angles of the illumination source and solar azimuths), In the eastern part of the Blue Nile Basin the old and b) satellite images of Google Earth (pixel size of 15 m, scale 1 : 100,000), and subsequent overlapping they recede in favour of expanding deep valleys. The of the layers (according to Wladis 1999; Ehlen 2004). fragmentsplateaus are of thestrongly plateaus eroded consist by offluvial Paleocene-Oligo erosion and- Many of these long linear structures are parallel cene-Miocene basalts and tuffs and deeply cut valleys to each other and the processes forming the current are also located there. In the western part of the Blue landscape are concentrated there. In order to deter- Nile Basin, Precambrian rocks are exposed (Figure 2). mine whether certain parallel linear structures are of A total of 161 mega-lineaments(with an aver- the same age and were created by the same process age length of 60 km), 1,264 faults (with an average (tectonic activity and erosion), the parallel mega-lin- length of 21 km), 3,429 lineaments (with an average eamentswere marked with the same colour (red, length of 10 km) and 81,137 valleys segments (with an green, blue, etc.). The shortest length of the mega-lin- average length of 2.3 km) were mapped and analysed in eamentswas 20 km. Shorter linear structures (length the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin. The results were < 20 km) are called lineaments and thousands of them then compared using azimuths and rose diagrams are seen on the Ethiopian Highlands. We mapped the (Figure 3). The analysis revealed that the mega-lin- linearly arranged elements of the landscape (the eaments(Figure 3A,B) and faults (Figure 3C, D) Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 133 are strongly correlated and concentrated into two orange lines), NNW-SSE (azimuth 170°; violet lines) directions: azimuth 20° (NNE-SSW orientation; red and N-S (azimuth 0°, black lines). Not all these direc- lines in Figure 3A) and azimuth 40° (NE-SW orientation; green colour in Figure 3A). The third-most dominant direction being E-W (azimuth 90°) is clearly visi- tions are clearly reflected in aggregated faults but can have4.2 Local a fault scale reflection analysis at a local level. ble in the lineaments. It has not a significant reflection order to represent various types of landscapes in the ofin mappedthis direction. faults, Smallerhowever concentrations Abebe et al. (1998) of linear and The sub-regions 1–5 from Figure 1 were chosen in Gani et al. (2009) also mentioned important faults- (covering the area of 18,800 km2) and 2 (11,500 km2) tions: ENE-WSW (azimuth 80°; blue lines), WNW-ESE upperare on partthe boundary of the Blue of Nile the RiverEthiopian Basin. Highlands Sub-regions 1 close (azimuthfeatures were 115°; also brown identified lines), NW-SEin the following (azimuth direc145°; to the MER. Sub-region 3 (20,500 km2) is a typical area

Fig. 3 A) Map of megalineaments; B) rose diagram of megalineaments; C) map of faults; D) rose diagram of fault azimuths; E) map of lineaments; F) rose diagram of lineament azimuths. 134 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár adjacent to the central volcano, while sub-region 4 type of relief, and could represent an old structural (21,000 km2) represents the Lake Tana area. Sub-region 5 (35,000 km2) in the southwest represents evolution in the Ethiopian Highlands. a highly-eroded part (i.e. the lowest part) of the Ethi- predisposition, which influenced the valley network opian Highlands. 4.2.1 The Jemma River It is evident that the NE-SW direction (green lines) The local scale analysis of sub-region 1 in the catch- is important in the sense of the valley evolution. This ment of the Jemma River revealed that apart from the is true across all of the sub-regions, regardless of the importance of the NE-SW orientation (azimuth 40°;

Fig. 4 The sub-region 1 (Jemma River Basin sub-region): A) map of the valley network and valley border; B) map of megalineaments, faults and lineaments; C) rose diagram of valley network azimuths; D) rose diagram of mega-lineamentsazimuths; E) rose diagram of fault azimuths; F) rose diagram of lineament azimuths. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 135

Fig. 5 Profiles in sub-region 1 (Jemma River Basin). Profiles 1–21 are valley cross-sections across green lines and profiles 22–33 are valley cross-sections across red lines; A – longitudinal profile No. 34 along a single red line (a site with a tendency for river piracy). 136 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár green line), the NNE-SSW orientation (azimuth 20°; diagrams (Figure 4). The shapes of the red line valley cross-sections suggest more intensive downward network evolution and lineament depiction. The rose erosion compared to the green line valley cross-sec- diagramred line) forplays the a faults more suggestssignificant tectonic role in predisposi the valley- tions, which suggests that the red line direction is tion. Both directions (green and red) have a similar younger (Figure 5). One site with a tendency to river azimuth (40° and 20°, respectively); however, they are sharply bounded and distinguished in the rose red lines (Figure 5A). The headward erosion is strong piracy was also positively identified along one of the

Fig. 6 Sub-region 2 (Beshlo Wenz River Basin sub-region): A) map of the valley network and valley border; B) map of megalineaments, faults and lineaments; C) rose diagram of valley network azimuths; D) rose diagram of mega-lineamentsazimuths; E) rose diagram of fault azimuths; F) rose diagram of lineament azimuths. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 137

Fig. 7 Profiles in the Beshlo Wenz River Basin sub-region. Note: Profiles 1–10 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by green lines; and 11–23 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by red lines. Profiles 24–35 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by an orange line. 138 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár from both sides of the two different valleys and river is well pronounced (Figure 6). The Afar area adjacent piracy can be expected to happen soon because the to the Blue Nile Basin, is also included in this sub-re- remnant of the original relief created by the basalt gion. The Rift has a NNW-SSE direction herein. Bor- layer is only 1.3 km wide. It is clear that the shape of the cross-sectional pro- and megalineaments. The rose diagram for the valley - networkder faults is (violet rather colour) complex are because reflected the in western lineaments part sitions), including intensity and type of erosion, dis- is similar to sub-region 1 (Jemma River Basin), while file is influenced by several processes (or predispo will reveal the general trend in valley evolution (if the facing the MER. lithologycharge and is lithology;homogeneous), nevertheless, which canthe setbe comparedof profiles theIn eastern accordance part bears with significantsub-region features 1, the valleys of the inslope the to other sub-regions. Valley cross-sections along the Beshlo Wenz catchment lying along green lines, are again more open and wide, while those running along the red lines are markedly incised (Figure 7). The only green lines (profiles 1–21 in Figure 5) are wider and narrowmore open and comparedtighter. This to is the regardless profiles ofalong the positionthe red to the rift, Figure 7), which are also very narrow like lines (especially profiles 26–33), which are more thoseexceptions connected are profiles to the red 3 through lines. The 6, andarea 10next (closest to the of one direction are similar in the upper, middle and border of the MER is under very intensive young evo- lowerof the partsvalley of in the the valley river system.network system i.e. profiles lution (strong downward erosion) regardless of the type of valley (red or green lines). 4.2.2 Beshlo Wenz River Several tectonic blocks evolved on the east-fac- The valley network predisposition of the landscape ing slope of the rift, which are asymmetrical in their evolution in the Beshlo Wenz Basin (sub-region 2) is similar to the Jemma River Basin. However, the faults do not have an azimuth of 20°, but the NNW-SSE ori- strongcross-sectional headward profile erosion and retainalong thesmall steep, lakes east-facing (Figure 8). entation (azimuth 170°; violet colour on the graphs) The drainage in a NNW-SSE orientation is modified by

fault slope. In our fieldwork, we identified the case of

Fig. 8 Cross-sectional profiles oriented towards the MER. Tectonic blocks, which are asymmetrical in the cross-sectional profiles evolved here and retain Lake Hayk (A), Lake Hardibo (B) and Lake Mybar (C). Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 139

by tectonics with an azimuth of 170° (NNW-SSE east nowadays because a small river reached the lake orientation) depicted by a violet colour in Figure Lakeshore Mybar due to very(Figure intensive 8C) – the headward lake is erosiondrained and to the 6 and 8, while in the surrounding of the adjacent former drainage to SSE was abandoned. Lake Hayk (Figure 8A) both NNE-SSW and NNW-SSE In this locality the tectonic predisposition is represented by faults with an azimuth of 20°. This is also respectively). the area with highest frequency of faults. Neverthe- trending faults were identified (red and violet lines, less, 30 km to the north the tectonic predisposition 4.2.3 Volcanoes Mt. Choke and Mt. Gish is changing in connection with the main structures The situation around the volcanoes of Mt. Choke of the rift. Lake Hardibo (Figure 8B) is predisposed (4,100 m a.s.l.) and Mt. Gish (2,890 m a.s.l.) is rather

Fig. 9 Sub-region 3 (Mt. Choke and Mt. Gish volcano sub-region): A) map of the valley network and valley border; B) map of megalineaments, faults and lineaments; C) rose diagram of valley network azimuths; D) rose diagram of mega-lineaments azimuths; E) rose diagram of fault azimuths; F) rose diagram of lineament azimuths. 140 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár

the Ethiopian Highlands due to the NE-SW trending volcanoes in this sub-region (radial network with preferencessimple. The towardsvalley system certain reflects directions); the position nevertheless, of the (Figure 10). Position on the boundary between the all other rose diagrams show NE-SW trending faults, mega-lineaments identified in all of the sub-regions - ence of the younger NNE-SSW tectonics (Figure 10). parallelLT and HT to provinces this NE-SW of flood oriented basalts valley, (Pik et al.a younger, 1998; lineamentsThe long andvalley mega-lineamentswithout system between the volcanoes any influ of deeperKieffer et al.and narrower 2004) could valley also has play been a role.created However, on the Mt. Choke and Mt. Gish is probably a part of an old- lower slopes of Mt. Choke, which were dated by Kief- er river network, which is pronounced in this part of

fer et al. (2004) to an age of 22.4 Ma. This direction

Fig. 10 Profiles in the Mt. Choke and Mt. Gish volcano sub-region. Note: Profile 1 along the single green line (an area with a tendency for river piracy); Profiles 2–15 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley and marked by green lines; Profiles 16–22 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley and marked by brown lines. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 141

Fig. 11 Sub-region 4 (Lake Tana sub-region): A) map of the valley network and valley border; B) map of megalineaments, faults and lineaments; C) rose diagram of valley network azimuths; D) rose diagram of mega-lineamentsazimuths; E) rose diagram of fault azimuths (E); rose diagram of lineament azimuths (F). 142 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár seems to be dominant in the area of Mt. Choke and Another example of a tendency for river piracy was Mt. Gish, even though the river network should have a radial character around the volcanos. If we consid- original landscape was left before the rivers from the er the fact that the NE-SW valleys (green lines) also identified here (Figure 10A). Less than 1.5 km of the cut 10.7 Ma old basalts, then they have to be younger than the basalts itself. SW or NE came across the old lava flows. Here we can presume expansion of a SW valley due to the profile (Fig. 10, profile 1).

Fig. 12 Longitudinal profiles in the Lake Tana sub-region: Longitudinal profiles 1 and 2 show the situation for rivers stretching WNW-ESE; Longitudinal profile 3 shows the situation for rivers stretching SW-NE. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 143

Fig. 13 Sub-region 5 (Didessa River and Baro River): A) map of the valley network and valley border; B) map of megalineaments, faults and lineaments; C) rose diagram of valley network azimuths; D) rose diagram of mega-lineamentsazimuths; E) rose diagram of fault azimuths (E); rose diagram of lineament azimuths (F). 144 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár

Fig. 14 Profiles in the Didessa River and Baro River sub-region. Note: Profiles 1–4 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by a brown line; and profiles 5–8 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by an orange line. Profiles 9–16 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley marked by a yellow line. Profiles 17–24 are cross-sectional profiles directed across the valley and ridge marked by a red line. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 145

4.2.4 Lake Tana lake; however, the headward erosion has to remove - by tectonics, namely in a NNE-SSW direction (azimuth - ofThe 20°). valley The network valleys seems trending to be WNW-ESE only partly (azimuth influenced of uationa 200 m in highthe SW crest of the (escarpment) lake shows, riverforming piracy the taking lake 115°) do not show any connection to the mapped placeshore inin athe SW west to NE (Sembroni direction et al. (along 2016). the greenAnother lines) sit the Lake Tana Basin. Nevertheless, both directions are long. Headward erosion along this green line is more markedfaults and because are significant they represent for the a serious area to potential the west for of probableand the remnant, because which it is predisposedmust be crossed, by the is only fault. 3.8 km The - recent erosional activity can be shown in a NNE-SSW directionriver piracy (red (see lines), the paragraph like in other below). sub-regions No significant closer (2,890landscape m a.s.l.). on the lakeshore is also flatter and is creat ed Currently,by a 150-m the high area remnant of the of Blue lava flowNile frombasin Mt. covers Gish is not well pronounced in this part of the Ethiopian 175,400 km2 (between Lake Tana and the Roseires Highlands.to the MER. Nevertheless, It seems that NNE-SSW the influence faults ofexist the in MER this water reservoir). However, when Lake Tana will change the drainage to the SW, the cut off part of the megalineaments. Blue Nile Basin (98,600 km2) will not be supplied by area,The and whole they of influence the Lake both Tana the Basin, lineaments which is and tecton the- water from Lake Tana, but only by precipitation, which is not evenly distributed during the year. The annual drains into the Blue Nile to the SE. Rivers on the west- ernically margin predisposed of the basin (e.g. areChorowicz approaching et al. the1998), lake now due 80% of this precipitation falls from July to September to headward erosion from two different directions (Klimadiagrammerainfall in the Ethiopian weltweit Highlands 2016). is 1,800 mm and show the situation for rivers stretching WNW-ESE 4.2.5 Didessa River and Baro River (brown(Figure 12).lines Longitudinal on the rose diagram profiles in1 andFigure 2 in 11). Fig. The 12 Many of the valleys (Figure 13) follow either a NW-SE headwaters are approximately 10 km away from the or NE-SW direction where the valley bottoms are

Fig. 15 Earthquake epicentres in the Jemma River Basin (A) and in the Beshlo Wenz Basin (B) (Earthquake Track 2017). 146 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár wider, which suggests an older river network. If we (NNW-SSE orientation) depicted by a violet colour. across brown and orange lines (azimuth 115° and catchment. The average depth of the hypocentres is 145°,check respectively),the cross-sectional the shapes profiles resemble (1–8) that wide stretch and 20This km, is duewhich to indicatesa logical influencerather shallow of the earthquakesMER in this open valleys (Figure 14). In addition, they are rath- and the average magnitude is 5.5. er deep, which suggests a long period of evolution. A slightly different situation can be observed on the 4.4 Features of Guder River and Muger River - network reorganisation sion is already visible on the valley bottoms. An oppo- Features of drainage network reorganization along profiles crossing the yellow lines, whereby young ero lineaments of various types can be detected in various parts of the Blue Nile Basin. The drainage net- Fig.site 14),situation which to are these again valley very profilesdeep, young can andbe found narrow in works of the Guder and Muger catchments (Figure (similarthe valleys to Figuredepicted 7). by The the area red of lines the (profilesDidessa and21–24 Baro in 1A, Figure 16) are organised dominantly along diago- rivers seems to be older in the sense of the evolution nal green and orange lines; however, the most active of the valley network with young erosion in the direc- recent river incision is along axial lines (yellow, violet, tion of the red lines (azimuth 20°). black and red, see Figure 16). This activity is evident mainly in lower parts of both watersheds as well as in 4.3 Analysis of earthquake epicentres the adjacent part of the Blue Nile valley. On the oth- A total of 12 earthquakes have occurred in and around er hand, valleys along diagonal lines are wider, more the Jemma River Basin since 1961 (Figure 15A; Earth- denuded and are partly abandoned. A set of highly ele- quake Track 2017). Most of the epicentres relate to “red lines” (eight events), only three to “green lines”. In the Beshlo Wenz Basin (Figure 15B) the epicen- onvated the depressions southern watershed (2,600–3,000 to the m NWa.s.l.) of elongated Addis Aba in- tres are located on faults with an azimuth of 170° a NNW-SSE direction (orange lines) can be identified

ba. Their very flat and wide bottoms (too large for the

Fig. 16 The Sub-region A (Guder River and Muger River basin sub-region): A) Guder River and Muger River networks organised dominantly along diagonal green and orange lines; B) Profiles of Guga river (1), terrace (2) and plateau (3); C) lineaments of recent drainage network, lineaments indicating paleo-drainage network and other lineaments. Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 147 recent small streams) with differing descent (partly to 5. Discussion the S and partly to the N) suggest that they belong to an ancient drainage network that might have drained Landscape analysis from SRTM DEM data is of great the area towards the SE. More detailed features of river network reorgan- et al. 2015). SRTM DEM data are often used for three typesinterest of to morphometric geoscientists (e.g. analysis: Martino discrete et al. 2009; elevation Haider Guder River (Figure 16B). The river recently rose function f onisation the bordercan be seenscarp in of the the longitudinal E-W oriented profile Yerer-Tul of the- - lu Wellel lineament, below one of the above-men- ful for performing (x, y, z), hill a morphostructural shading as well as analysis flow direction of the tioned paleo-valleys at an elevation of approximately upperand flow Blue accumulation. Nile Basin and All its three surroundings. were also very use 3,000 m a.s.l., where only several hundred horizontal Hill shading offers many possibilities for interpret- meters are missing in order to capture the stream of ing detailed surface structures that are often com- the paleo-valley by headward erosion. Leaving the pletely imperceptible using simple DEM visualization (e.g. Kennelly 2008). Hill shading allowed us to per- lineament without any notable incision. At an ele- form a much more accurate delineation of lineaments vationscarp, theof ~1,800 river flows m a.s.l. along it turns the toN theboundary NW, where of the it and borders of erosion than mapping from certain stepped canyon with a small decrease in gradient. The the overlapping of layers (the digital elevation mod- flows across a denuded border scarp in a 0.5 km deep el;satellite hillshade images images only of (Kusákvarious et al.elevation 2016). angles However, of the lineament to the east of Lake Chomen and then before illumination source and the solar azimuths; satellite profile only becomes steeper when it crosses the W-E- images with a pixel size of 15 m placed on the virtu- mately ~950 m. Along with the typical character of al globe of Google Earth) proved to be the most use- it flows into the Blue Nile at an elevation of approxi- ful when checking the manually mapped landscape shapes (following Wladis 1999; Ehlen 2004; Gani and the past.upper The part general of the trendprofile, of severalthe plateau other inclination morpho Abdelsalam 2006). Morphometric analysis based on (fromlogical N features to S) has point been to reversed reverse byflow a strong of the upliftriver inof a calculation of the potential drainage of each pixel the border of the Yerer-Tullu Wellel lineament (Figure of an SRTM DEM shows the shape, density and hier- 16); therefore, natural drainage to the S could have existed in the past. The strongly eroded, wide and of structure and erosion processes on the formation branched middle part of the watershed contrasts with ofarchy the oflandscape valley networks, (sensu which reflect the influence the narrow lower part closed between well preserved 2016), similarly to an evaluation of various topo- remnants of the volcanic plateau in the north. On the Stoddart 1997; Kusák et al. contrary, the uplifted plateau is markedly denuded in effectively used in the central part of the area by Gani the south. andgraphic Abdelsalam profiles. (2006) A set ofbut all our of workthese brings analyses a differ was- Probably the most interesting feature is the char- ent type of information. acter of a wide terrace (2 in Figure 16B), which is The character of faults, their direction and space directly incised by the river. The elevation of the differentiation as well as time of formation and reac- terrace rises from the mouth (~1,350 m a.s.l.) only tivation, are important for the reconstruction of the approximately 20 km (~1,450 m a.s.l.) to the nar- morphotectonic development. However, direct inves- rowest part of the valley bounded by remnants of tigation of faults is limited to outcrops, boreholes the plateau. Subsequently (from 20 km to 70 km), the terrace is reversed to recent river as for W-E ele- Therefore, they are not mapped equally in detail on vated belt at Lake Chomen lineament. Nevertheless, geologicaland geophysical maps profiles,and the distinctionwhich is time of demanding.their origin a small paleo-valley on the southern border sloping and activation is limited. On the other hand, linea-

Further to the S, the river is not incised and prob- uniformly mapped with a certain probability on the to the S is also an indication of reverse flow here. basisments of reflecting a DEM. Mega-lineaments the geological fractures are most can probably only be the point where a general rise in the elevation of the connected with important faults, but because of their plateauably flows begins down (Figure to the 16).terrace The (~1,300former waterm a.s.l.) shed to limited number they are not as suitable for statistical divide, approximately 20 km from the recent mouth, analysis as regular lineaments. The stages of development of structurally determined landforms can also can be inferred. Considering all other indices, drain- - ageand towardsat least athe 50 SSE, km mainlylong reversed along diagonal flow of lines,the river can ence of morphodynamic phenomena (erosion, land- be assumed before the uplift of the border of the Yer- slides,be estimated earthquakes) from topographic (Gani and Neupne profiles 2018). and the Finally, pres er-Tullu Wellel lineament. Therefore, reorganization the combined information from all of these sources of the drainage network in relation to the current sit- can be compared to the results of various geological uation took place later by headward erosion, mainly and geochronological analyses to obtain a compre- along the axial lines. hensive picture of the morphotectonic development. 148 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár

Two basic groups of structural features can be dis- Pliocene tectono-thermal uplift of the MER shoulders tinguished based on our analysis of the upper part of and relative subsidence of the Tana basin (Chorowicz the Blue Nile basin: a) Axial (including black, yellow, violet, blue and red that in this initial stage the upper part of the Blue lines) around N-S and E-W directions. Nileet al. could 1998; have Sembroni also drained et al. 2016). along the We ancient can speculate NW-SE b) Diagonal (including green, orange and brown lines) (orange) or WNW-ESE (brown) structures to the area around NE-SW and NW-SE directions. of the recent Afar depression. An indication of this may The difference between the red and green lines be the mature erosional pattern of the E and SE part (representatives of the basic groups mostly con- of the Blue Nile Basin in comparison with the more tained in the faults and lineaments) is associated homogeneous (younger) erosional pattern of the W with a transition from a 130°E-oriented extension and SW parts (Gani and Abdelsalam, 2006) and also to a 105°E-oriented extension of the MER sometime indications of diagonally-elongated palaeovalleys in between 6.6 to 3 Ma ago, which caused a change in the recent watershed around the city of Dessie. the normal fault orientations from predominantly The spatial distribution of the particular types - of the studied linear features can be linked with the time-space character of the background tectonic N35°EBlue Nile to N10°EBasin, (Wolfendeni.e. its formation et al. 2004).as a NW-trending The diago events. Sub-region 1 lies closely westward of the MER, nal features also reflect yet older development of the and sub-region 2 directly on the border of the Afar mainly respond to Quaternary development, which depression. Sub-regions 3 and 4 are far from the rift rift (Gani et al. 2009; MacGregor 2015). Axial features- boundary and the eastern part of sub-region 5 is close sions related to an oblique opening of the MER and to the Rift (Figure 1). The investigated (coloured) developmentis influenced ofby E-trending E-W and NNE-SSW-orientedtransverse faults as wellexten as directions represent only 44% of the possible drainage courses. Nevertheless, 62% (sub-region 4) to 87% (sub-region 2) of the drainage agrees with the anal- E-W-oriented extensions in western Afar (Gani et al. 2009).The Landslidesyoung Quaternary linked with character axial directions of the majority confirm Quaternary activity too (Kycl et al. 2017). ysed directions. This not only confirms the significant- They are characterized by prevailing deep and narrow aryinfluence of the ofMER tectonics and in particularon the drainage the Afar network, depression. but valleys,of the axial fault lines scarps, was earthquake also confirmed activity by andour aanalyses. tenden- Axialalso an directions increase dominatein this influence in sub-regions around thenear bound or on cy for recent river piracy. On the contrary, the diag- the rift boundary (sub-regions 1, 2 and 5), whereas onal lines are generally linked with wider and more open valleys with a higher tendency for meandering the last two sub-regions. or braided channels, a dominant abundance of higher diagonalThe brown directions direction are comparably is mainly about significant the SW only part in of sub-regions 3 and 5 with the most mature relief features. Reorganisation of the drainage networks of and exposed pre-Tertiary bedrock, which suggests its theorder Guder streams and Mugerand significant rivers from “well-developed” the diagonal to relief axial ancient character. The orange direction has a similar directions supports this dichotomy. character, but its important representation in sub-re- The development of lineaments and river networks gion 2 and the eastern part of sub-region 5 suggest is generally accelerated by the uplift of the area. The initial Paleogene surface of the volcanic plateau of the green direction is generally the most represented in Ethiopian Highlands probably formed at elevation sig- allneotectonic of the linear reactivation features, mainly (Abebe in et al. sub-regions 1998). The1, 3 - and 4. Transformation of tectonic failures into the ing until the Late Miocene (MacGregor 2015). Indeed, drainage network indicates the oldest neotectonic nificantly lower than now, and then had been decreas The red lines are second in the order of areal Pike et al. (2003) suggest that erosion initiated in the importanceevent of regional (after significance, the green lines) i.e. opening and are of theconnect MER.- Blueof the Nile Blue canyon Nile up as to early the Late as 25–29 Miocene, Ma whereas ago, but rapid Gani - et al.erosion (2009) would evaluated have started only aonly very 6 gentle Ma ago. incision Generally, rate nounced in the inner part of the Ethiopian Highlands. the neotectonic uplift of the territory can be connected Theed with black the and stress violet field lines of the have MER, only but a limitedare less areal pro - (their higher importance was revealed only in sub-re- andwith Abdelsalamthe opening 2012)of the MERbut uplift (11 – 6 of Mathe ago Lake accord Tana gioninfluence 2), while on the they adjacent are the parts youngest of the andMER have and Affarbeen sub-regioning to various probably authors – c.f. began earlier, Gani et al. i.e. before 2009; the Ismail end active for the short period of time. The yellow lines - are located in the south of the upper part of the Blue nospheric mantle intruded the lithosphere as a result Nile Basin and they are primarily a result of activation of plumethe mid-Tertiary activity, inducing flood volcanism thermal uplift when (Chorowicz the asthe of the Yerer-Tullu Wellel lineament in the Late Mio- cene. Nevertheless, recessing the lower parts of their - tionet al. 4.4), 1998). which Further was lateran initial blocked radial by drainageLate Miocene network and activity increases in an E-W direction. could have formed including outflow to the S (see sec cross profiles means that the Quaternary tectonic Influence of neotectonics on land surface evolution 149

The Ethiopian Highlands are one of the most tec- The beginning of the neotectonic stage (during which the modern topography and drainage network formed) can be connected to the opening of the MER tonicallyerosion and influenced river piracy areas are in thevery world active (Beyene there. Theand during the Late Miocene. The most wide-spread NE-SW Abdelsalamvalley networks 2005; are Gani young et al. and 2007, water 2009), divides so change river (green) linear features parallel to MER represent the position easily. Thanks to the steeper slopes and a more humid climate inside the MER, the water extension in the whole territory. Reactivation of some courses (tributaries of the Awash River) have more NW-SElong term (orange) morphotectonic linear features influence mainly near of an the NW-SE MER erosive power and the Jemma and Beshlo Wenz riv- boundary match with activity of the offset faults. Devel- er basins lose parts of their catchments as the water oped (wider, more open) valleys and more ‘mature relief’ are typical for the leading green direction. Pliocene counter clockwise rotation of the MER ofdivide river is piracy moving would slightly probably towards be seenthe west in the (Kusák Lake Tanaet al., Basin. 2016). However, the most significant effect the generation of NNE-SSW (red) linear features. The Currently, the Lake Tana Basin is in the focus of stress field led (mainly in the MER surrounding) to uplift of the whole territory, especially the rift shoul- - stress field transition was linked also with intensive many scientific disciplines in terms of: 1) geology toward S or E. Continuing relative subsidence of the 2014);and geochronology 3) chemical (Praveanalysis et al. of water2016); and 2) reproducsediment Lakeders Tana that definitelybasin, headward blocked erosion any existing and river outflow piracy ing historic sediment concentrations (Kabaa et al. could contribute to spreading of the Blue Nile basin - too. Morphological features such as incised narrow (Ahrens et al. 2016); 4) assessing the implications of valleys, indices of river piracy, valley asymmetry and ofwater the aboveharvesting stated intensification research activities on upstream–down and many other the generally ‘young age relief’ characteristic for the authorsstream ecosystem write about services the Lake (Dile Tana et al. Basin 2016); as aetc.. single All red direction support this interpretation. unit, but do not include the processes taking place in N-S (black and violet) linear features represent the the surroundings. River piracy approaches the Lake youngest Quaternary development of the territory Tana Basin from SW to NE (along the green lines) and connected with E-W extension in MER and western Afar. They are morphologically least developed and long (Figure 12). The potential change of drainage of represented by huge fault slopes with tectonic blocks Lakethe remnant, Tana to which the SW has (instead to be surpassed, of to NE) is willonly greatly 3.8 km and active youngest upper parts of valleys. Orthogo- nal features with E-W direction are dominant along large area. older (Late Miocene) Yerer-Tullu Wellel volcanotec- influence the hydrological conditions over a rather tonic lineament, however they show evident features

6. Conclusion to river piracy. Accelerating Quaternary uplift creat- edof recentrecent reactivationvery high relief in cross mainly profiles along andthe boundarytendency The results of simple morphostructural analysis from with MER and Afar depression and so conditions for a DEM can be interpreted in high concordance with intensive headward erosion from the outside the Blue the present results of stratigraphic, structural, petro- Nile basin that could lead to its reduction by river logic, tectonic and geochronologic investigations of piracy in the near future. the Ethiopian Highlands. The azimuths of lineaments, faults and river networks combined with erosional features, cross-sectional and longitudinal valley pro- Acknowledgements stages of topography development. The study was supported by the GACR project “Mass filesThe reveal NW-SE a change (orange in thelines) dominant and WNW-ESE stress fields (brown and wasting and erosion as an indicator of morphotecton- lines) linear features correspond with older stress ic activity in the Ethiopian Highlands based on remote - sensing approaches” (P209/12/J068) and by the gene rifts and transposed onto the volcanic plateau Grant Agency of Charles University in Prague, Czech fields organizing the formation of ancient pre-Neo Republic “Morphostructural analysis of Ethiopian determined a palaeo-drainage system that could par- Highlands based on remote sensing” (1436314). Jozef during the first phases of its rise. They probably shoulders and are well pronounced in sub-regions Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-15 withtially uncoveredflow to the southpre-volcanic and east bedrock. across the These recent direc rift- Minár-0054. The was SRTM supported DEM was by the provided Slovak by Research the U.S. Geo and- tions are characterized by extremely braided valleys logical Survey. This work was carried out thanks to with locally brained channels, small remnants of vol- support of the long-term conceptual development canic plateau and features of well-developed relief’. research organization RVO: 67985891. We wish to They are typical for the oldest part of Blue Nile and thank Craig M. Hampson and Frederick Rooks for lan- Didesa valley. guage editing. 150 Michal Kusák, Vít Vilímek, Jozef Minár

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Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century? Vladimir Nikitović1, Daniela Arsenović2, Aleksandar Sekulić3, Branislav Bajat3,*

1 Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia 2 University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Serbia 3 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Serbia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT Gaps in comprehension of demographic change in the region of ex-Yugoslavia after 1990, caused by a lack of reliable data series, frequent change of borders, and distinctive historical and cultural tradition in comparison to other post-communist societies, motivated us to contribute to the understanding of the spatial diffusion of recent profound fertility changes in South-Eastern Europe. We analysed changes in the spatial pattern and distribution of typical fertility indicators of the second demographic transition at the sub-national level in Serbia in order to find out whether these demographic shifts could be interpreted to be similar to those in Central and Eastern Europe. We found that differences in economic, historical, and cultural development between sub-regions of the country strongly affect spatial patterns of fertility change. Also, this paper suggests that the sub-regions forerunners of the first demographic transition could be considered as the cores of diffusion for the second demographic transition.

KEYWORDS South-East Europe; second demographic transition; sub-national fertility patterns; spatial autocorrelation; Serbia

Received: 7 March 2019 Accepted: 1 August 2019 Published online: 20 September 2019

Nikitović, V., Arsenović, D., Sekulić, A., Bajat, B. (2019): Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century?. AUC Geographica 54(2), 152–167 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.14

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 153

1. Introduction cultural tradition in comparison to the other former socialist countries (Sobotka 2003). In the European context, the second demograph- Moreover, divergent trends in the onset and tem- ic transition (SDT) was studied through various po of the fertility transition had been noted across socio-demographic processes including: fertility sub-regions of the former Yugoslavia during the decline, mortality impact on fertility change, marital socialist period, which was distinctive from the rela- postponement, non-marital fertility, partner relationships, changing household forms etc. Besides report- - ing general remarks on the very concept of the second gionaltive homogeneity differences of inEastern demographic Europe (Nikitović change, which2011, demographic transition as regards to its ideational were2016; well Josipovič documented 2016; Lerch in Yugoslav 2018). The demographic strong sub-re lit- and cultural drivers and universality issues (Coleman 2004; Esping-Andersen, Billari 2015), certain doubts of fertility transition in the region (Slovenia, Croatia, are often expressed with respect to the applicability anderature Serbia (Josipovič but excluding 2016), Kosovo). highlighted Declines early in adopters fertility of this theoretical concept outside the region where below replacement level started in Croatia and Serbia it was originally recognized as a process (Lesthaeghe, (excluding Kosovo) approximately at the same time as Neidert 2006). As one of the SDT proponents recently stressed, there is growing evidence that phenome- 2016). This peculiarity was acknowledged to a limited na such as sub-replacement fertility, rising shares of extentit started in newerin the vanguard studies (Frejka, countries Gietel-Basten of SDT (Nikitović 2016; cohabitations, and non-marital fertility are spreading worldwide (Lesthaeghe 2014). Still, some authors partly can be attributed to data issues generated by associate these factors with the rise of poverty formu- theNikitović, frequent Bajat, change Blagojević of national 2016; Lerchboundaries 2018), inwhich the lated through the ‘pattern of disadvantage’ (cohabi- region. tation as a characteristic of lower social stratum); When analysing the post-1990 period, Sardon therefore, expressing doubts that SDT mechanisms of (2001) noticed that strong sub-regional differences - of the former Yugoslavia with respect to other former ern Europe (Perelli-Harris, Gerber 2011). Further- socialist countries could be hidden if the levels of indi- more,cultural divergence shifts influence in trends demographic of SDT fertility changes indicators in East cators are examined as a whole, especially when ana- between and within European countries is evident lysing nuptiality levels and non-marital fertility. Addi- - ghe (2014) has recently suggested that SDT should to the Eastern bloc variant were often marked as a dis- be(Billari, rather Liefbroer conceived 2010). as a narrative For that for reason, understanding Lesthae tionally, specificities of Yugoslav socialism in relation- the profound cultural change that will sooner or later induce a variety of demographic changes thus imply- tinctive feature that can induce specific demograph ing that cross- and within-country differences in lev- concludeic outcomes that in the the patterns socialist of context change (Rašević typical for 2004). SDT els of SDT indicators are inevitable. couldHowever, not thesebe relevant specificities for explaining have led some fertility authors chang to- In this regard, exploring whether a fertility change es in the region of former Yugoslavia (Kuhar 2009); typical for SDT has been spreading from its source whereas, others argue that SDT has been blocked in towards the East seems to be a relevant research topic. The interpretation of abrupt and fast demographic Despite opinions that the concept of the second changes that followed the fall of the Iron curtain in demographicthis region since transition 1990 (Bobić, is limited Vukelić in 2011). Balkan coun- European post-socialist countries (the CEE term often tries, recent macro-level evidence suggests that Ser- comprises all former socialist countries including the bia1 may have begun to follow the post-socialist pace states successors of Yugoslavia) using the framework of this transition after a period of stagnation in the of SDT has been a frequent research topic in this cen- - tury (Philipov, Kohler 2001; Sobotka 2003, 2008, fore aim to examine if there is enough evidence for determining1990s (Nikitović, spatial Bajat, diffusion Blagojević of fertility 2016). change We there typi- - cal for SDT in Serbia at the beginning of this century. 2011;er 2010; Sobotka, Kurek 2011a; Zeman, Perelli-Harris, Kantorova 2003; Gerber Rašević 2011; In other words, this study aims to contribute to the 2004;Botev Muresan2012; Walford, 2007; Hoem Kurek et al. 2016). 2009; Yet, Kuhar, literature Reit understanding of the spatial diffusion of recent pro- explaining demographic changes in CEE countries found fertility changes occurring throughout South- after 1990 usually do not fully cover the region of for- East Europe. mer Yugoslavia, which is mainly due to the lack of reli- Although the proponents of SDT have no doubts able data series and frequent changes of borders ever when it comes to spatial spreading of this transition since Yugoslavia’s dissolution. In addition, the region from North-West to South-East Europe since the of former Yugoslavia also had a distinctive history or 1990s, a recent comprehensive study on non-marital

1 In this paper, it does not include the disputed territory of Kosovo, which unilaterally proclaimed independence of Serbia in 2008. Kosovo is currently recognized as an independent state by 108 of 193 UN member states and 23 out of 28 European Union member states. 154 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat fertility (a typical SDT indicator) across sub-national regions of Europe showed that its spatial diffusion is researchers highlighted the role of macroeconomic not so straightforward and suggested that state bor- factorsThe explanations while others of thisthought relationship of economic differed – some and politi- ders are still more relevant than regional ones with - respect to non-marital fertility (Klusener, Perelli-Har- graphic transition in this region (Philipov, Kohler 2001:cal transitions 38; Kurek as a2011b). specific Anyway,part of the after second 1990, demo the from the aforementioned study showed that a more detailedris, Sanchez spatial Gassen analysis 2013). would However, shed somemore findingslight on demographic development inside the group of former understanding recent spatial patterns of fertility socialistdiversification countries in terms is obvious of social, due economic, to different and speed even change in South-Eastern Europe. For that reason, we of societal transformation (Botev 2012: 69). There- focus on the spatial pattern and distribution of select- fore, some authors suggest that the process of second ed SDT indicators at the municipality level in Serbia demographic transition ‘is not a unitary movement based on spatial autocorrelation analysis in order that reached all the countries in Central and Eastern Europe roughly at the same time and had the same be interpreted within the framework of the second features throughout, no more than it was in Western demographicto find out whether transition. recent In addition,demographic we aim shifts to discan- - marriage formation risk in selected countries in Cen- sity in comparison to countries of former communist tralEurope’ and (HoemEastern et al. Europe 2009: and 250). found They that investigateda particular regimes.cuss these findings in the context of regional diver drop in this indicator started in Hungary and Bulgaria Geographic differentials in diffusion of innovations after the early 1980s and in Russia and Romania half- a-decade and full decade later, respectively. According to Sobotka (2011: 262), a strong proved to be significant for sub-national differences decrease in period fertility rates have been accompa- wein the expect onset that of an the analysis first demographic using lower spatialtransition levels in nied and partly caused by a shift towards a later tim- willSerbia help (Nikitović, us to understand Bajat, Blagojević the spatial 2016). pattern Therefore, of the current fertility transition in Serbia and whether it with family transformations that resulted in the rise is similar to the patterns observed in CEE countries. ofing non-marital of first births. births. These However, changes in relationwere also to followedthe peri- The analysis is focused on common SDT indicators in od before 1990, when the share of non-marital births terms of fertility aspects of the process: total fertility did not exceed 10 per cent, the CEE region is cur- rate (TFR), mean age of women at childbearing (MAC), rently characterised by diversity of this typical SDT and percentage of births outside marriage (BOM).

(justindicator – from above 20 per Nordic cent). values in Bulgaria (more than 2. Overview of the Fertility Change in Serbia 50 per cent) to half the West Europe values in Poland in the Context of the Post-Socialist Societies 2.1 Change in Fertility Rates in Serbia, 1950–2017 The general pattern of changes in the period total fer- Fertility changes that could be interpreted in the tility rate in Serbia since 1950 was similar to those framework of SDT lagged by at least 20 years in observed in most European countries: post-war baby post-socialist countries when compared with the boom followed by a decrease to the replacement level, forerunners of the process in North-Western Europe. and then to the sub-replacement level (Figure 1). The During the socialist period, CEE countries were char- main difference in Serbia is that the baby boom came acterized by different demographic development, par- to its end already in the late 1950s. The decline in fer- ticularly concerning fertility, in relation to the rest of tility was faster and ran deeper than in most Euro- Europe (Frejka, Gietel-Basten 2016). ‘A demographic pean countries in spite of the same general determi- distinctiveness of European former Communist coun- nants of fertility decline, such as the adoption of new tries as a relatively homogeneous region had gradu- norms and values and growing levels of female labour ally developed between the mid-1960s and the mid- force participation (Kupiszewski, Kupiszewska, Niki- 1980s’ (Sobotka 2003: 453). In the 1970s and 1980s, institutional and cultural factors that jointly sustained below the replacement level by 1971. Several factors the regime of universal and early reproduction under statedtović 2012). in literature As a result, could TFR help was one already to comprehend 15 per cent state socialism protected Eastern Europe from the fer- such a distinctive pattern. Those often include early tility decline experienced in all other parts of Europe. liberalization (from 1952 to 1969) of women’s right Then, following the collapse of communist regimes, within a decade the CEE region experienced the low- was typical for former socialist countries (Sardon est fertility rates in Europe (Sobotka 2003, 2011). 2001;to abortion Sobotka, (Rašević Zeman, and Kantorova Sedlecky 2003; 2009: Frejka 385), 2008),which A sharp decrease in TFR in Eastern Europe dur- and structural factors such as fast secularization and ing the 1990s was usually associated with political, industrialization during the period of Yugoslavia social and economic distortions during the period. implying abrupt migration from rural to urban areas Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 155

Fig. 1 Total fertility rate (double-line) and 5-year age-specific rates (solid, dashed and dotted lines) in Serbia excluding Kosovo, 1950–2017. Notes: Time series after the census year of 2011 does not include the effect of international migration. TFR – Total fertility rate (the mean number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the fertility rates by age of a given year, and surviving); ASFR – age-specific fertility rates (the number of live births occurring during a given year per 1,000 women of reproductive age classified in five-year age groups). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (Demographic Yearbook 2017; documentation tables). associated with housing issues in urban areas. Yugo- belonged to the lowest fertility group have recently slav society, unlike socialist states in CEE at the time, experienced a rise in TFR (Latvia, Russia, and Slove- was quite open to the impact of Western values in the nia have even exceeded 1.5), which should be expect- sense of satisfying individual needs to a much great- ed considering the pace of ‘postponement transition’ er extent, which arguably contributed to an increase (Goldstein, Sobotka, Jasilioniene 2009). in the economic and psychological cost of children. Figure 1 demonstrates a transition in the age pattern of fertility in Serbia, which occurred over the last population policy during the period were introduced 60 years. Very high baby-boom rates at ages older than Furthermore, no efficient measures in the domain of 20 rapidly declined during the late 1950s and early The subsequent sharp fall in the TFR in Serbia 1960s and kept principally stable during the 1970s began(Rašević in 2004:16).the late 1980s, similar to Slovenia and Croa- and 1980s. Only the fertility rates of adolescents expe- tia. These three republics of former Yugoslavia were rienced an increase and relatively high levels during recognised as the ‘early starters’ sub-region in terms all the period of socialist Yugoslavia. This is usually explained by the moral primacy of patriarchy in a steeper fall could have been expected due to wars spite of the new social institutions introduced by the andof fertility institutional transition crisis (Nikitovićduring the 2017). 1990s, Althoughthe total socialist regime (Lerch 2018). However, since the late fertility rate in Serbia has not experienced the low- 1980s, the fertility rates of females younger than 25 est levels recently reported in Europe. Moreover, the began to decline sharply, while those of females older war ambience could be a reason that contributed to than 30 started to increase, actually at a slower pace. prolonged consistency of traditional patriarchal val- This was particularly prominent for the age groups ues associated with family and childbearing (Sardon total fertility rate in Serbia has oscillated between 1.4 20–24 and 30–34, as they swapped their positions in and2001; 1.48 Rašević since 2004;2005. PetrovićMost former 2011; socialist Lerch 2018). states thatThe theterms last of 60 contribution years. Moreover, to the totalthe difference fertility – the between latter group currently has a higher rate for the first time in 156 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat these two groups regarding their contribution to total cent in 1950 to 26.3 per cent in 2017. However, the fertility rate has been increasing since 2009. The high- position of Serbia regarding the share of non-marital births has shifted downwards in the European context during the last 60 years. Since the late 1950s and est fertility rates in the twenty-first century refer to during the 1960s the share was stable around 12%, thewomen current aged age 25–29 pattern (despite that is the quite recent similar drop) to the and one is placing Serbia just behind Iceland and Austria in 1960 observedclosely followed in Poland by women(Walford, aged Kurek 30–34, 2015). which Although forms (12.2 per cent), and behind Iceland, Sweden, Estonia, the indication of ‘the postponement of childbearing for opportunistic reasons and on account of structur- 2010). Given the universality of marriage and child- al impediments’ could have been noticed during the bearing,and Austria the in rise 1970 of the(11.8 share per cent)at the (Penev, time was Stanković due to clear onset in postponing childbirths in Serbia seems caused by the termination of the short-lived baby- toperiod be associated of former withYugoslavia the downfall (Rašević of 2004: the socialist 9), the booma significant period (Figuredrop in 2), the much number shorter of withmarital respect births to system, thus resembling the trends observed in oth- most European countries (Kupiszewski, Kupiszewska, er post-socialist societies. Consequently, the average age of childbearing increased from 25.9 in 1991 to The share of non-marital births was almost the sameNikitović in 1968 2012). and 1988, while in between it dropped. half a year than in Slovenia, Estonia and Croatia, and by This was induced primarily by the emergence of the almost29.8 years a year in 2017. from Thethe EU latter average, value whileis lower it is by similar about baby-boom echo generations, which accordingly to that in Latvia, Hungary and Poland (Eurostat 2019). affected the number of marital births and lowered

2.2 The Share of Non-Marital Births in Serbia, of the indicator started in the late 1980s as the end 1950–2017 ofthe the share socialist of non-marital system was births. approaching, The significant a trend thatrise was similar to what was observed in most of former The share of non-marital births is one of the typical socialist countries. However, the share of non-mari- - tal births in Serbia in 1990 (13.1 per cent) was just iour associated with the second demographic tran- above those in the Netherlands and Belgium and indicatorssition. This reflecting indicator changes raised in demographicSerbia from 8.0 behav per ahead of most former socialist societies. In 2017,

Fig. 2 Number of livebirths by legal marital status (primary axis) and the percentage of extra-marital births (secondary axis) in Serbia excluding Kosovo, 1950–2017. Note: Time series after the census year of 2011 does not include the effect of international migration. Share of extra-marital births – the proportion of live births outside marriage. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (Demographic Yearbook 2017; documentation tables). Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 157

Tab. 1 Distribution of municipalities (LAU-2) according to the categories of relevant input data in the census years of 2002 and 2011.

Frequency of LAU-2 Number of Frequency of LAU-2 Frequency of LAU-2 Total population Number of women aged size livebirths 2002 2011 15–49 2002 2011 2002 2011 <10,000 6 11 <2,000 5 13 <100 11 36

10,000–19,999 50 56 2,000–4,999 60 64 100–199 49 44

20,000–49,999 60 51 5,000–9,999 40 37 200–499 50 45

50,000–100,000 27 23 10,000–20,000 30 26 500–1000 30 16

>100,000 18 20 >20,000 26 21 >1000 21 20

Average / LAU 46,571 44,639 Average / LAU 11,238 10,033 Average / LAU 488 418 Note: Data on the number of livebirths refer to the three-year average over the census years. Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (Census of Population, Households and Dwellings in the Republic of Serbia, 2002 and 2011; documentation tables). it was positioned much lower, leaving behind, apart - from Switzerland, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey, only countries from Eastern Europe (Poland, liveStatistical births Officeoutside of marriage.the Republic Each of Serbia.indicator Legal was mar cal- Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova) and the successor states ital status was used as a criterion for identification of of the former Yugoslavia except Slovenia (Eurostat 2019). The share of non-marital births in Serbia culated for the last two census years – 2002 and 2011, as a three-year average over the periods 2001–2003 pre-marital cohabitations that are more typical for calculationsand 2010–2012, were respectively, made following in order the administrative to smooth out peoplein the in twenty-first disadvantaged century economic resulted positions, mainly such from as divisionannual fluctuations in 2002 as noin thedata number for 2002 of werelivebirths. available The lone mothers including those in extended multiple for the new six municipalities that had been estab- - lished by the time of the 2011 census. Consequently, the results of the analyses in the paper were distrib- generation families (Penev, Stanković 2010; Stank uted across the total of 161 municipalities in Serbia ović 2014). It suggests that the recent rise of the excluding Kosovo. Out of that number, 42 municipal- indicator does not reflect spreading of cohabitation ities have city status (16 of them are actually includ- post-socialistas an alternative societies, to marriage where (Petrovićthe diffusion 2011; of cohabBobić,- ed within the City of Belgrade) based on the admin- itationVukelić has 2011). been This rather is in slow line (Muresanwith findings 2007, from Sobotka most istrative criterion, which comprise 63.2 per cent of 2008). the total population in the country as to the 2011 The following spatial analysis of the SDT indicators census. Table 1 shows the basic descriptive statistics (TFR, MAC and BOM) will show that a variety of oth- of the relevant input data across municipalities in er factors need to be considered in Serbia in order to the census years of 2002 and 2011. The interactive gain an understanding of their substantially diverse map depicting the values of calculated SDT indica- distribution at sub-regional levels. tors on the municipality level (LAU-2) is available in HTML format at the Web page http://osgl.grf .bg.ac.rs/static/materials/demography/tfr_mac_bom 3. Data and Methods .html

3.1 Data sets and territorial disposition 3.2 Global and Local Spatial Autocorrelation Indices

The spatial analyses were conducted at the local The global Moran’s I statistics (O’Sullivan, Unwin administrative unit (LAU) 2 level, which refers to 2003) and local indicators of spatial association municipalities in Serbia (Figure 3). The values of the (LISA) (Anselin 1995) were calculated in order to outline spatial autocorrelation globally and to identify the municipalities’ borders. These analyses are exclu- spatial clusters with respect to percentage difference analysed indicators were matched to GIS shapefiles ofin the SDT fertility indicators for 2002 and 2011. tion estimates for the years out of intercensal periods As global Moran’s I index recapitulates autocorre- dosively not referred include international to census years migration. as the official In this populaway, we lation values over the entire study area, inherent spa- wanted to get the values of the indicators as realistic tial autocorrelation is necessary to calculate indices as possible, which is particularly important in case of typical emigration municipalities. clustering around an individual location. like LISA in order to assess significant local spatial- tion (ISA) (ESRI 2012) was conducted to determine Data on live births and population classified In the first step, Incremental Spatial Autocorrela across five-age groups and sex were provided by the 158 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat

Fig. 3 The map of Serbia with local administrative units (LAU-2). Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 159 the distance associated with peak clustering for all could be more typical for highly urbanized and more SDT indicators. The value obtained from ISA was then developed sub-regions of the country. In both cases used as a distance threshold or radius for determin- this correlation suggests that cohabitation is still not ing proximity weights (O’Sullivan, Unwin 2003) when common alternative to marriage as it was noted in calculating global and local spatial autocorrelation recent studies on fertility and union formation in Ser- indices. determined among countries of ex-Yugoslavia exclud- bia. The similar findings on this SDT indicator may be 4. Spatial Analysis of Fertility Change in 2014). The following spatial analysis across munici- Serbia, 2002–2011 palitiesing Slovenia in Serbia as well provides as in Poland a deeper and insight Slovakia in sub-na (Bobić- tional differences in fertility. The analysis of the three fertility indicators connect- The two methods used aimed at checking wheth- ed with SDT at the level of local administrative units er there is a spatial spread of SDT fertility indicators refers to the main objective of the study. Table 2 sum- throughout Serbia. One implies a descriptive analy- marizes the changes of these indicators across munic- sis of the spatial differences of each indicator across ipalities in Serbia from 2002 to 2011. the country and their dynamics between the two last census years, 2002 and 2011, while the other relies than in urban areas in this period. As expected, the on spatial autocorrelation indices calculated upon gapThe in MACdrop hasin TFR even was extended significantly between higher urban in rural and relative changes (%) over the intercensal period rural areas. Although the higher rise in BOM could be expected in rural than in urban areas in accordance with the recent changes in the European context 4.12002–2011. Total Fertility Rate (Walford, Kurek 2015), a BOM in rural municipalities is 30 per cent higher than in the cities of Serbia According to the 2002 census, TFR was below the according to the 2011 Census. This peculiarity, which replacement level in almost all of the 161 municipal- is analysed in more details across municipalities, ities in Serbia, as only 8 of them reached 2.1 or above - (Figure 4(a)). Five of these eight municipalities were ical for countries where this process was originally predominantly populated by Muslims, the religious described.might point to the specific forms of SDT that are atyp group who were the last in the country to enter the The next introductory step of the spatial analysis - involves inspecting whether there is a correlation ing three municipalities belong to the group with the between each of the two pairs of indicators distrib- highestfinal stage share of ofdemographic persons living transition. abroad for The more remain than uted across municipalities during the two census a year. Unlike 2011, the TFR for 2002 included the births by this group of emigrants indicating that the was found indicating that the mean age of mothers TFR was actually lower than 2.1 in these municipali- atyears, childbirth 2002 and is negatively2011. The onlyassociated significant with correlation the share Due to a further decline of TFR, only three munici- palitiesties (Rašević, with predominantly Penev 2010). Muslim populations were of births outside marriage, with Pearson coefficient- above 2.1 in 2011, while ten municipalities dropped tionof correlation pattern includes raising betweentwo types 2002 of association, (r = −0.35, butp < .001) and 2011 (r = −0.44, p < .001). This correla- cent of municipalities (21 of 161) did not decline in ties where MAC is lower while BOM is higher and the TFRto just between around the1 (0.99–1.09) census 2002 (Figure and 2011. 4(b)). TheOnly highest 13 per otherwith opposite to municipalities directions – one where refersMAC is to higher municipali while increase (mainly lower than 10 per cent) took place in the northern, most urbanized, part of the country developed and mainly rural areas, while the latter one including municipalities in the area of the two largest BOM is lower. The first one could be expected in less

Tab. 2 Quantitative analysis of the second demographic transition indicators in urban and rural local administrative units in Serbia, 2002–2011.

Total fertility rate Mean age of women at childbirth Births outside marriage (%)

Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural

year 2002 1.54 1.65 27.37 26.18 20.46 23.69

year 2011 1.44 1.35 28.90 27.16 23.27 30.29

% difference −6.51* −17.79** 5.59** 3.73** 13.75* 27.87** ** Significant atp = 0.001; * significant atp = 0.05 using Mann–Whitney test. Note: A municipality is classified into urban or rural depending on its administrative status according to the current administrative division of local spatial units (cities and municipalities). Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (documentation tables). 160 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat

Fig. 4 Total Fertility Rate in Serbia at LAU-2 level: (a) 2002, (b) 2011, (c) percentage difference for the period 2002–2011, (d) LISA cluster map of percentage difference for the period 2002–2011. Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 161

- 4.2 Mean Age of Women at Childbirth tal of the province of Vojvodina). This result indicates thecities – Belgrade effect of postponing (the capital) births andto later Novi ages Sad (more (the capi typ- The highest values of MAC in 2011 are recorded in ical in urban areas), rather than the rise in the cohort the largest urban centres of Serbia, almost exclusively in those located in north and west parts of the A quarter of all municipalities had experienced fertilitya decrease (Rašević in TFR 2015). between 20 and 40 per cent from Serbia, while the lowest values refer to the east (Fig- 2002 to 2011 (Figure 4(c)). Most of these munic- urecountry, 5(b)). except The numberfor Niš – the of municipalities largest city in with southern MAC ipalities are in eastern and southern Serbia, the least developed regions in the country according to 60) between 2002 and 2011. The minimum values of higher than 28 years increased five times (from 12 to website of the National Agency for Regional Devel- area of the country) remained almost the same after opment.the 2014 Theofficial observed scale of decline development during listed the periodon the aMAC decade (observed (24.4 yearsin the insoutheast – the 2002 compared least with developed 24.7 in was even larger than 40 per cent in several munic- 2011), while maximum MAC (recorded in the histor- ipalities in the northeast of this area, which is dis- ic centre of the Belgrade City) increased from 30.4 to tinguished by the highest share of population living - - ities did not report a rise of MAC between 2002 and ference in methodology when the rates for 2002 and 2011,32.2 years clearly (Figures indicating 5(a–c)). the transition Only 9 of 161in the municipal peak fer- 2011abroad are (Penev, compared Predojević-Despić (the latter one 2012). did notGiven include a dif tility towards older ages throughout the country. The births by emigrants), this strong reduction could not largest increase in MAC (between 6 and 10 percent) during the 2000s occurred mainly in municipalities Penev 2010). with smaller urban centres (most of them located in onlyGlobal be attributed Moran’s toI = the 0.342 actual (Z =fertility 11.824, fall p (Rašević,< 0.001) Central Serbia) and those where relatively lower values of MAC had previously prevailed. indicates moderately clustered spatial patterns with Global Moran’s I = 0.144 (Z = 5.338, p < 0.001) for for the TFR (threshold radius h = 70 km) in Serbia- - pronounced clustered spatial patterns with high sta- torshigh assortedstatistical by significance. different types The ofLISA spatial cluster correlation: map des the MAC (threshold radius h = 140 km) suggests less- 1)ignates High-High locations association, with significant a municipality local Moran with indica high tistics for the mean age at childbearing, there is almost TFR value has neighbouring municipalities with high tisticala continuous significance. High-High As regards cluster to connecting local Moran’s the Iarea sta TFR values (positive spatial correlation); 2) Low- of the Belgrade City and Central Serbia (Figure 5(d)). Low association, a municipality with low TFR value The distribution of all four types of clusters could be has neighbouring municipalities with low TFR values (positive spatial correlation); 3) Low-High associ- areas where MAC was previously very low indicating ation, a municipality with low TFR value has neigh- generalexplained spatial by two diffusion processes. of demographic The first one innovation. refers to bouring municipalities with high TFR values (neg- The other process is associated with recent trends in ative spatial correlation); 4) High-Low association, urbanisation (mostly pronounced along important a municipality with high TFR value has neighbouring road corridors in Serbia) indicating a higher mean age municipalities with low TFR values (negative spatial correlation). 2015). The local Moran’s I statistics singled out a big com- at childbearing in urban than in rural areas (Rašević pact High-High cluster in TFR denoting a metropolitan 4.3 Live Births Outside Marriage area that includes the two largest cities (Belgrade and Novi Sad) located in northern Serbia (Figure 4(d)). Eastern Serbia differs quite distinctively from the rest of the country in terms of the percentage of in TFR between 2002 and 2011 in the area. It might be births outside marriage. The BOM values higher than explainedThe cluster, by primarily, both the development reflects a quite of housing small increase associ- 30 per cent were recorded in almost all municipali- ated with a recent concentration of industry particu- ties in eastern Serbia, where BOM is even higher than larly in suburbs of the area induced by the proximity 40 per cent in 11 municipalities for the year 2002. to important highways, and the ongoing process of On the other hand, BOM is lower than 20 per cent in - 71 of 161 municipalities in the country (Figure 6(a)). In 2011, the observed spatial polarization became insouth-to-north East Serbia indicatesinternal migration a decrease (Nikitović, in TFR, whichPredoje is even more pronounced (Figure 6(b)). The increase partlyvić-Despić, caused Marinković by the changes 2015). in A methodology big Low-Low between cluster of BOM values in eastern Serbia is noticeable when - compared to stagnating rate in southwestern Serbia rect effects of continuous international emigration (9 municipalities with BOM less than 10 per cent). the 2002 and 2011 census, but also reflects the indi- Generally, the increase of BOM values and BOM range mann, Musil, Gruber 2014). throughout the country are obvious in the period of from this area (Penev, Predojević-Despić 2012; Fass 162 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat

Fig. 5 Mean age of women at childbirth in Serbia at LAU-2 level: (a) 2002, (b) 2011, (c) percentage difference for the period 2002–2011, (d) LISA cluster map of percentage difference for the period 2002–2011. Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 163

Fig. 6 Share of Live Births Outside Marriage in Serbia at LAU-2 level: (a) 2002, (b) 2011, (c) percentage difference for the period 2002–2011 (%), (d) LISA cluster map of percentage difference for the period 2002–2011. 164 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat

national level, however special focus was maintained below 20 per cent dropped to 50, while the num- at the level of municipalities. ber2002–2011. of those Thewith number a share of of municipalities births outside with marriage BOM Concerning the national level, the total fertility rate higher than 40 per cent reached 29, of which 13 had and mean age at childbearing in Serbia follow paths - similar to those in CEE countries. Even though the last ities experienced a decline of BOM between 2002 sharp decrease of TFR began a little earlier than in anda share 2011, higher while than the 50 strongest per cent. drops Only were20 municipal localized CEE countries, it did not reach the lowest values as in the southwestern area characterized by the lowest reported in CEE. This can be explained through a not values of the indicator. A total of 23 municipalities so sharp transition from state socialism to new soci- experienced a rise of BOM higher than 50 per cent etal conditions and stubborn subsistence of tradition- (Figure 6(c)). al values associated with family formation during the Global Moran’s I = 0.078 (Z = 2.818, p < 0.006) for - 2011; Lerch 2018). The latter reason could also have tain degree of clustered spatial patterns with statis- ancivil impact wars inon the the 1990s much (Petrovićlower rate 2011; of non-marital Bobić, Vukelić fer- the BOM (threshold radius h = 52 km) indicates a cer tility in Serbia than in most of CEE countries, which of BOM of around or below 20 percent was recorded is almost the same as in Poland, and higher only than intical the significance. largest cities It of should the country be noted regardless that the of share their those in former Soviet republics and Croatia (Eurostat 2019). of them in eastern Serbia) experienced BOM higher thangeographic 30 per location, cent. The while local only Moran’s five urban I statistics centres (allfor the analysed fertility indicators with respect to the BOM denoted two clusters that represent two dis- The three general findings concerning changes of tinctively different areas (east and west in relation to decade of this century: a) the decline in fertility has the main road corridor) with regards to the percent- diffusedtype of municipality from urban into Serbiarural areas, were b)pointed the gap in inthe mean first age difference in the share of births outside marriage age at childbearing between urban and rural areas between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6(d)). One distinctive has widened, and c) the share of non-marital births area refers to the largest urban centres in the more - developed west sub-region, including central urban as. The diffusion of values and ideas associated with zones of the Belgrade City, characterized by the low- lowbecame fertility significantly norms from higher urban in rural centres than to in peripheralurban are est share of BOM and its change over the period. The areas of the country was already well noted during other distinctive area refers to municipalities in the less developed east sub-region with the highest share Also, the pronounced postponing of births in cities isthe in firstaccordance demographic with the transition recent changes (Watkins in post-so 1990).- observation could be considered as a paradox. How- cialist societies (Walford, Kurek 2015). However, ever,and highest it was notedincrease that of ‘cohabitations BOM. On the first and glance,extra mar this- such a discrepancy between rural and urban areas in ital births in Serbia are more common among actors terms of non-marital fertility might be unexpected if we neglect that non-marital births in Serbia are most- - ly reported among women from lower social strata, comingat the lower structural end ofrisks, the although, stratification without ladder ideational … [as a result of] … rationally developed strategies in over 78). In addition, East Serbia could be considered as analysis,which are as often the pivotal located analytic in rural tool, areas denoted (Bobić that 2014). the changes typical to the theory of SDT’ (Petrović 2011: metropolitanMore specific area, results which of includes the autocorrelation the two largest spatial cit- demographic change since the mid-nineteenth centu- ies located in the northern Serbia, is the only one with a specific sub-region given the distinctiveness of its at the beginning of this century. At the same time, ry (Knežević 2013). spatiala mild butdiffusion significant of the increase rise in mean of TFR age in at the childbear country- 5. Discussion and Conclusions ing was registered throughout the country but was mostly pronounced along important road corridors The objective of this study was to determine wheth- connecting bigger towns. This indicates that the pro- er recent spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia, cess is particularly associated with recent trends in which we assumed to be associated with the second urbanisation. Our results generally coincide with the demographic transition, agree with those observed in post-socialist societies of Europe. Whereas most of transformation of reproductive behaviour began ear- the literature exploring whether and how SDT taking lierfindings in the from largest Czechia city districtsindicating and that districts ‘this stage with in eco the- place in former Yugoslavia refers to the national lev- nomic centres.’ As such, the spatial patterns of fertility el and to aspects of family change, we wanted to see change demonstrate different speed of adaptation to if sub-national geographic differentials in diffusion the changes in reproductive conditions (Šprocha, Šid- of demographic innovations measured by key fertil- lo 2016: 228). In this respect, East Serbia is clustered ity indicators associated with SDT could shed more in terms of a decrease in TFR, which could be to some lights on the issue. We deployed our analyses from the extent associated with indirect effects of continuous, Second Demographic Transition and the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia 165 long-lasting international emigration from that area. are not so dividing with respect to SDT indicators. For The diffusion of the increase in the proportion of example, the rise in non-marital fertility rates in Bul- non-marital births from its core in East Serbia was garia resembles the one in East Serbia. evident with respect to spatial statistics on the per- On a national scale, Serbia and Poland are very centage difference of this indicator between 2002 and similar in terms of the level and family settings of 2011. The two distinctive opposite clusters (East and non-marital fertility. However, only a closer look at Southwest Serbia) suggest that not only the tempo of the sub-national patterns of the diffusion of this indi- this diffusion was rather slow, but the persistence of traditional values associated with family formation is very strong in the Southwest, which is recognized as andcator religious reveals differencesthat ‘diversified of the levelPoland’s of extramarital population’ the sub-region that was the last to enter fertility tran- births in the spatial arrangement reflects cultural the diffusion of this SDT indicator in Serbia is clearly - guided(Kurek 2011a: 393).by differences Likewise, in historical our results and cultural suggest herthat- sitionlysed indicators(Nikitović, Bajat,of SDT, Blagojević particularly 2016). as to the share itage between sub-regions of the country. Therefore, of non-maritalSpecificities fertility,of East Serbia belong that to the relate outcomes to the anathat the spatial pattern of the share of non-marital births, might be unexpected to some extent. Furthermore, as an indicator of ideational change, shows that typi- this sub-region stands as an exception with respect cal SDT drivers may not be the decisive determinant for recent fertility change in Serbia. The fact that BOM division between West and East Europe, which seems is not only the result of modern cohabitations but is to bethe still Hajnal relevant line thatfor differentials reflects the in nuptiality non-marital regime fer- more attributed to a rise in unstable partnerships that tility between sub-regions in Europe (Walford, Kurek end up with single mothers of poor socio-economic 2015). East Serbia was the innovating sub-region as status supports this conclusion. Furthermore, the slow rise of BOM since the beginning of this century nineteenth century). Also, it could be an innovating along with the highest and increasing level of post- areafor the regarding first fertility the transition second transition, in the country similarly (the late to ponement of births in urban and most developed what Lesthaeghe and Neels (2002) concluded explor- sub-regions of the country questioning ideational ing the spatial diffusion of SDT in Belgium and France. roots of the change assumed by SDT. The societal anomie, slow transition to market economy and sta- East Serbia were atypical in a way similar to what ble political conditions typical for the post-socialist The drivers of the first demographic transition in- defer childbearing in case of the higher educated or thecould Vlach be the population, current specificity. the fertility In this transition sub-region, already rec tocountries, adapt their may strategies also influence associated individual with decisions family for to- startedognized inby the the secondgreat influence half of the of the nineteenth cultural model century of mation in case of persons in disadvantaged socio-eco- with the acceptance of birth control through the ‘one- nomic position (Perelli-Harris, Gerber 2011). However, as Van de Kaa (2004: 8) pointed in his of the transition was agrarian overpopulation due to paper revisiting the concept of SDT, ‘it is not of any thechild extensive system’. farming The most of predominantlycommonly identified rural popula cause- - tions, which increased after the end of an immigration ent cultural endowments do not rapidly converge to that was induced by the enlargement of the territory agreat standard significance pattern’. if countries Also, it is and possible regions that with societies differ of Serbia. On the other hand, there were also indications that the trigger was endemic diseases such as progression of SDT, as suggested by Sobotka (2008). Inlike other the Serbian words, society the pattern just follow of advantage a specific and path the of pattern of disadvantage could be just two opposite bettersyphilis perceived (Knežević if 2013).it is considered from a longer his- sides of the same coin. This seems to be reasonable toricalTherefore, and socio-cultural the specificity perspective, of East Serbia which might high be- - ing decisions of individuals concerning family forma- understanding current fertility change in the sub-re- because both modern and traditional values influenc lights the importance of specific ethnic differences for- ders on the diffusion of fertility changes associated slowtion were transition noticed to atwhat the some same authors time in referSerbia to (Bobić, as the withgion. SDT Furthermore, could be questioned the influence in this of part national of Europe. bor genderVukelić egalitarian2011). It could family be normsalso interpreted (Esping-Andersen, as a very A recent study (Klusener, Perelli-Harris, Sanchez Gas- Billari 2015). The similar trend was noted in Romania sen 2013) pointed out that most prominent nation- indicating that the SDT process might be in progress al dividing lines with respect to non-marital fertility as most of the ‘threshold levels’ of the onset of SDT after 1990 shifted from West and Central to Southeast were surpassed with exception of cohabitation, ulti- - mate celibacy, and modern contraception (Muresan itations regarding different levels of regional decom- 2007: 65). Moreover, our study shows that the tran- positionEurope. The particularly finding was between probably formerdriven by Yugoslavia study lim sition between traditional and modern concerning and its neighbours. The spatial analysis in this paper the demographic regime might have its geographical showed that national boundaries in Eastern Europe dimension in Serbia, too. 166 Vladimir Nikitović, Daniela Arsenović, Aleksandar Sekulić, Branislav Bajat

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Effect of rural transport infrastructure on the intensification of purchased input use for major food crop production: the case of smallholder farmers in Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia Sileshi Tamene*, Tebarek Lika Megento

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use. A random sample of 500 respondents was selected and relevant data was collected. Descriptive, correlation, and regression statistics were used to analyze the data. The multiple linear regression analysis revealed that farmers’ purchased input use was found to be significantly and negatively related to distance to major market, distance to all weather road, distance to farm plot, transport cost, and size of land holding. In contrast, farmers’ purchased input use was found to be significantly and positively related to family size, off farm income, membership in a cooperative, being in Horro district, having animal cart, and access to good road. Further, the results of hierarchical multiple regression showed that approximately 82% of the total variation in purchased input use can be explained by the linear combination of all independent variables. Furthermore, the result showed that rural transport infrastructure-related variables, as a set, contributed 13.3% to the prediction of farmers’ purchased input use over and above the remaining predictors. The results suggest that improving the rural road infrastructure and access to rural transportation services is vital in encouraging farmers’ purchased input use.

KEYWORDS hierarchical regression; Horro Guduru; intensification; purchased input use; rural transport

Received: 13 January 2019 Accepted: 10 September 2019 Published online: 19 December 2019

Tamene, S., Megento, T. L. (2019): Effect of rural transport infrastructure on the intensification of purchased input use for major food crop production: the case of smallholder farmers in Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia. AUC Geographica 54(2), 168–181 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.15

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 169

1. Introduction 2011; Weir and Knight 2004). Past agricultural research in the country also focused on the impact of improved agricultural technologies on smallholder remains the greatest challenge facing smallholder farm income and its implication for poverty reduc- farmersThe achievement in developing of major countries. food Thecrop poor intensification state of the - - tionAlthough strategies these (Hailu past 2014; studies Katungi provided et al. useful 2011; infor Sala- rural transportation network and inefficient logis- mationmi et al. on2010). the trends, patterns, and determinants of ticsport continue infrastructure to hinder challenges agricultural are inadequateintensifications and agricultural input adoption, rigorous assessments of inpoor Africa conditions (Delaney of the et al. rural 2017). road The network key rural and limited trans rural transport constraints on the use of purchased availability of vehicles, which has led to an increase (variable) inputs for major food crop production, in the cost of transportation further affecting agricul- as a measure of household commercialization from the input side have rarely been studied in Ethiopia. condition of transport infrastructure, the effect of A better understanding of rural transport constraints geographictural input pricesisolation, (Salami high et al. transport 2010). costs, The very and poortime that hinders smallholder farmers’ participation in lost to roadblocks, can completely undermine the agricultural input markets as a buyer is therefore - important for designing promising pro-poor agricultural and transport policies that could stimulate returnsLike into manyinvestments other sub-Saharan in crop intensification African countries, practic the use of modern agricultural inputs and increase small-scalees (Delaney agricultureet al. 2017). is the most important sector small-scale agricultural production. This study aims for achieving sustainable household food security in Ethiopia. It accounts for 80% of the working popula- information to empirically address the relationship tion, 86% of the total foreign exchange earnings, and to fill this knowledge gap and provide quantitative- 48% of gross domestic product (GDP) (Worku 2011). An increasing use of modern agricultural inputs such ofbetween this research smallholder are supposed farmers’ to food be usedcrop byintensifica different as chemical fertilizers and improved seeds remains stakeholderstion and rural involved transport in infrastructure.rural transport The policy, findings agri- one of the best hopes for greater agricultural produc- cultural land use planning, and sustainable food crop tion and productivity of rural Ethiopia, where more production strategies. The overall objective of this study was to investi- However, lack of enhanced supply and promotion of gate rural transport constraints of major food crop improvedthan 80% seeds,of the populationorganic and lives inorganic (Minten fertilizers, et al. 2013). and low level of an irrigation system are major obstacles to sustain the agricultural production in the country to:intensification (1) examine strategies relationship by small-scalebetween proximity farmers toin all-weatherEthiopia. The roads specific and total objectives values of purchasedthis study inputwere As a landlocked country with largely non-naviga- use among smallholder farmers; (2) determine the (Elias et al. 2006). extent to which a combination of rural transport the performance of the Ethiopian economy. In Ethi- infrastructure, institutional factors, resource endow- bleopia rivers, immature road ruraltransport transport plays and a significant other key rolephysi in- ment, and physical factors predict smallholder farm- cal infrastructure have led to high transport costs for ers’ purchased agricultural input use; (3) identify agricultural products to the market as well as of farm the extent to which rural transport infrastructure inputs, reducing farmers’ competitiveness (Fufa and (distance to major market, distance to all-weather Hassan 2006; Lulit 2012). This could be a disincen- road, distance to farm plot, transport cost, mode of tive to the use of productivity-enhancing agricultural transport and road conditions) predicts smallholder inputs and therefore could discourage smallholder farmers’ purchased agricultural input use, controlling for the effects of demographic, institutional, resource Most of the literature on small-scale agriculture endowment, and physical factors. farmer’smarket participation major food crop concerns intensification. only the output side of marketing production (Arethun and Bhatta 2012; 2. Theoretical underpinnings of the study However, the sustainable marketing of smallholders alsoBekele requires et al. 2010; integration Gebremedhin into the and input Hoekstra markets 2008). (Pin- This study aims to look at the nature and extent of gali and Rosegrant 1995). To bridge the gap in the lit- rural transport infrastructure and its effect on mod- erature on the marketing participation of rural house- ern agricultural input use among smallholder farm- hold on the input side, we analyze the rural transport ers of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia. determinants of purchased modern agricultural There are several theories that attempted to explain inputs use. In Ethiopia, there is relatively large litera- how rural transport infrastructure investment can ture dealing with the role of technological innovation bring about economic growth and development and diffusion in increasing agricultural productivity Kachallah 2017; Margarian 2011; Roland-holst 2009). (Banerjee et al. 2012; Didenko et al. 2017; Jelilov and and intensification (Elias et al. 2013; Katungi et al. 170 Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Lika Megento

Of these multiple theories, “the theory of induced 3. Data and Methods technical and institutional change” was used as relevant theoretical perspective to design the research 3.1 Selection and description of study site questions that this study is based on. In addition, this The study was conducted in Horro Guduru Wollega theoretical perspective was used for organizing and Zone, western Ethiopia. This Zone lies between Lat- induced technical and institutional change provides interpreting the findings of this study. The theory of itude 9°10′2 (CSA N and 2011; 9°50′ Tamene N and andLongitude Megento 36°00′ 2017). E will philosophically, epistemologically, methodologi- andShambu 36°50′ is theE (Figure capital 1). town It has of thea total zone land and area found of callythe structure and analytically to define approached. how this particular research 8,097 km Economic historians are increasingly drawing on of CSA (2011), this zone had a total population of the theory of induced technical change in attempt- 641,575314 km West of which of Addis 50.09% Ababa. are According male and to 49.91% the report are ing to interpret differential patterns of productivi- female. According to the same source, about 89% of ty growth among countries and over time (Ruttan the population lives in the rural areas driving their 2008; Ruttan and Hayami 1984). Agricultural econ- livelihoods from agriculture. omists like Hayami and Ruttan (1993, p. 6) argue by saying that in agriculture, changes in the ‘relative resource endowments’, especially land and labor, induce a derived demand for technological innovations to facilitate the replacement of relatively less scarce and cheap factors for more scarce and expensive ones. For example, when labor is in short supply, there is a tendency for capital in the form of labor-saving machinery to be substituted for human labor. Whereas, in a land-scarce economy, yield-increasing and land enhancing inputs such as fertilizers and improved seeds are substituted for land which in turn depends on the agricultural input market conditions (Hayami and Ruttan 1985, 1993; Ruttan 2008). Moreover, roughly 22 years ago, Ruttan (1996, p. 54) in one of his seminal papers addressed that induced technical change acts to make the ‘scare factor more abundant’. Induced technical and institutional change theo- Fig. 1 Location map of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone. ry offers a theoretical understanding appropriate to Source: Adapted Finance and Economic Development Bureau examine the complex and dynamic relations between of Oromia, 2016. rural transport access and smallholder farmers’ purchased input use. When we examine the appropri- The average annual temperature in the study area ateness of this theory for understanding the nature is 22.1 °C, with an average minimum of 13 °C and an of rural transport and purchased input use in the average altitude of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone rang- effort of promoting the rural agricultural econo- esaverage from 860maximum to 2657 of meters30 °C (Beyene above sea et al. level 2015). (Beyene The study area, two related realities emerge: first, the farmers needs technical change and innovations to mainstay in the study area with notable food crops transformmy and bringing the most maximum common benefits and tedious to smallholder traditional includinget al. 2015). wheat Mixed (Triticum crop-livestock aestivum agriculture), barley (Horde is the- rural transport mechanisms-human porterage (head, um vulgare), teff (Eragrostis tef), maize (Zea mays), shoulder, and back-loading) to improved rural trans- pulses (Vicia faba, Pisum sativum) and cash crops like port means-pack animals and animal drawn carts. sesame (Sesamum orientale), niger (Guizotia abyssi- Such rural transport improvements brought about nica), and linseed (Linum usitatissimum) (CSA 2014). by rural transport innovations can enhance the use Even though few independent variables used in of purchased input use among smallholder farmers. our previously published article (Tamene and Megen- Second, this theory also acknowledges that improved to 2017) are also used in current manuscript, a great- production technologies (fertilizer and improved er number of independent variables are newly intro- seed) as well as improved farm management prac- duced to the current manuscript to emphasize on the tices (credit and extension institutions) can play in originality of this paper. Furthermore, due the follow- replacing relatively scarce resources like land and ing reasons each manuscript has a distinct focus and labor. purpose. First, each manuscript addressed different Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 171 research questions. Second, each manuscript studies software program version 20. To determine wheth- the data from completely different angles. Third, each manuscript used different relevant literature. Fourth, to the prediction of smallholder farmers’ purchased they both differ in their analytic methods, interpreta- inputer rural use, transport over and infrastructure above the variance added predictedsignificantly by tions, and conclusions. Lastly, the dependent variables demographic, household resource endowment, insti- in both manuscripts are conceptually different and - empirically not related. Therefore, the manuscripts bles, the independent variables were entered in to should be considered independently. twotutional separate infrastructure, blocks of the and regression location specificanalysis varia(hier-

3.2 Study Design, Sampling, Data Collection, variables except rural transport infrastructure relat- and Analysis edarchical variables method). (variables In the of interest)first block, were all includedindependent into The study utilized a smallholder household based the regression analysis. At the second step, the new cross-sectional quantitative survey design using independent variables (rural transport infrastructure a structured questioner with face to face interview. related variables) were added, and all of the independ- Descriptive and analytical cross-sectional micro-level data have been used to estimate the effect of rural the independent set to see the unique contribution of transport infrastructure on smallholder farmers’ pur- ruralent variables transport (those infrastructure entered at related first block) variables remain in the in chased input use. Horro Guduru Wollega Zone was - ing corridors of Ethiopia. On the contrary, the existing intensification3.3 Description of purchasedof Variables agricultural input use. ruralidentified road astransport one of the infrastructure potential cereal in the crop zone produc is not Our variables of interest (both dependent and inde- satisfactory to support smallholder agricultural pro- pendent) used in this study and their levels of meas- duction system including the purchases of necessary urement are shown in table 1. These variables are inputs (Tamene and Megento 2017). Therefore, Horro Guduru Wollega Zone was purposively selected. independent variables on the purchased input use as A multistage simple random sampling technique asupposed dependent to variable.capture the influence of the potential was sequentially employed to select four districts from Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, four rural kebeles 3.3.1 Rural transport infrastructure (RKs) from each district, and rural farm households It is assumed that a well-functioning rural trans- from each rural kebele-Kebele is the smallest admin- a random selection of four districts from the nine smallholderportation infrastructure farmers. Smallholder is significant level determinants purchased districtsistrative of unit Horro in Ethiopia.Guduru Wollega The first Zone. stage As involvesa result, inputof the use form for and major pace food of cropfood production crop intensification (Y) is there of- four districts (Hababo Guduru, Horro, Amuru and Abe fore modeled as a function of smallholder farmers’ Dondoro) were selected (Figure 1). The second stage access to rural transport infrastructures and services. involves the random selection of four RKs from each Access to rural transport infrastructures and servic- of the four districts making a total of 16 RKs. es, captured as an average distance to major market, - average distance to farm plot, average distance to all tion of farm households with farmland size of 0.25 ha weather-road, are expected to be negatively correlat- andThe above third from and each final RK. stage The waslist ofthe farm random households selec ed to the total values of purchased input use (Bekele in each RK was compiled with the assistance of the extension agents and RK managers. According to Gray road is considered crucial to improving access to agriculturalet al. 2010). inputAvailability markets, of resultinggood quality in greater rural access use of productivity-enhancing modern agricultural inputs et al. (2007) suggestion, the researcher used a 95%- confidenceably in the numberlevel to determine of smallholder the sample farmers size they for con thisof Transportation for local-level transport services specifictain and study. hence It to is avoid usual bias, that probability RKs may vary proportional consider in(Jayne rural et al. areas 2003). is also Ownership expected of to Intermediate promote increased Means to size (PPS) was employed. Thus, 500 smallholder use of purchased modern inputs. Hence, household farmers from the four districts were sampled for the level purchased input use is modeled as a function of study. distance to major market, distance to farm plot, dis- The household survey was conducted from Feb- tance to all weather-road, transport cost, ownership ruary to June 2016, which followed shortly after the of Intermediate Means of Transportation and road main season (Meher) harvest. Interviews were con- quality. ducted in places convenient to farmers either at home 3.3.2 Demographic factors Statistical analysis such as descriptive statistics, To capture the effects of demographic factors on correlation,or in the field. and multiple regression with a hierar- smallholder farmers’ purchased input use, we used the age of household head and family size. It was Statistical Package for Social Sciences (IBM SPSS) assumed that older households tend to be more chical model specification was performed using the 172 Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Lika Megento

Tab. 1 Summary of variables used and their measurements.

Variable name and type Description Measurement Expected sign A dependent variable indicating the total amount of birr spent for Purchased input use Ethiopian Birr* purchasing agricultural inputs for major food crops Age of household head Age of household head Number of years − (continuous) Family size (continuous) Total family size of the household head Number + Size of land holding (continuous) Area of farm land owned by the household Hectare + Livestock ownership Total livestock unit Total livestock ownership of the household −/+ (continuous) (TLU) Off farm income (continuous) Income earned from non-agricultural activities Ethiopian Birr* + Membership in a cooperative Being a member of an agricultural cooperatives 1 = Yes; 0 = No + (Dummy) Extension visit monthly 1 = Monthly visit; Frequency of extension visit + (Dummy) 0 = Twice in a year Level of annual rainfall Amount of annual precipitation Millimeter (mm) −/+ (continuous) Distance to major market Distance travelled by the household to reach the nearest major Kilometer − (continuous) market Distance to farm plot Average farm plot distance from the homestead Kilometer − (continuous) Distance to all weather road Distance travelled by the household to reach the nearest all Kilometer − (continuous) weather road Transport cost incurred to move 100 kg of agricultural input Birr per 100 kg Transport cost (continuous) − over 1 km per km 1 = Animal cart; Animal cart (Dummy) Transport mode used + 0 = Headloading 1 = Good road; Good road (Dummy) Road quality + 0 = Bad road 1 = Highland; High land (Dummy) Agro-ecology type −/+ 0 = Otherwise 1 = Horro district; Horro (Dummy) District type − 0 = Otherwise Source: Own construction. * During data collection 1 USD equals 23.73 Ethiopian birr. market-oriented and have higher agricultural input 3.3.4 Institutional infrastructure variables market participation. The number of members in Apart from household resource endowment and the household is also assumed to be very important demographic factors several other factors such as the in the use of purchased input use since the use of institutional frameworks affect the demand for and such productivity-enhancing inputs are said to be consumption of purchased farm inputs such chemical more labor-intensive than conventional subsistence fertilizers (DAP and urea), improved seeds (maize and farming. wheat) and pesticides. Therefore, the third important set factors affecting purchased input use among 3.3.3 Household resource endowment smallholder farmers in rural areas include the insti- Off-farm income, livestock ownership and size of tutional infrastructure variables such as membership landholding increase the welfare of farmers because they help farmers in getting the required input need- 2009) and contact with agricultural extension agents (Belayin a cooperative 2015). (Hellin et al. 2009; Markelova et al. throughed for agricultural cash from production off-farm activities (Abdullah and et al. livestock 2017). 3.3.5 Physical and location specific factors salesPurchased (Christiaensen agricultural 2017). inputs Therefore, are mainly household financed Several environmental variables were hypothesized resource endowment (size of land holding, livestock to encourage/discourage farmers to invest in pur- ownership, and off farm income) are hypothesized to chased agricultural input use for major food crop increasingly recognized as a resource that can signif- production. These include the amount of annual rainfall received and agro-ecology. The total values among smallholder farmers. of purchased input use and physical factors (amount icantly influence the quantity of purchased input use Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 173

of annual rainfall received and agro-ecology where Y 0 1X1 2X2 16X16 a household belongs) are related. It is expected that, on average, smallholder farmers in midland Here = β in + theβ case + β of both + … +models: β + ε (2) Y more purchased inputs. To capture the differences in inputs (Ethiopian birr), purchasedagro-ecology input and usewith among sufficient study rainfall districts, tend district to use 0is is the the financialconstant costterm or or monetarythe intercept, value of variable dummy was considered. β respective independent variables 1–16 3.3.6 Rural transport infrastructure βX1 is ageare ofthe household regression head coefficients (years), associated with It is assumed that a well-functioning rural trans- X2 is family size (number), X3 is size of land holding (hectare), X4 is livestock ownership (TLU), smallholderportation infrastructure farmers. Smallholder is significant level determinants purchased X5 is off farm income (Ethiopian birr), inputof the useform for and major pace food of food crop crop production intensification is there of- X6 is membership in a cooperative (dummy), fore modeled as a function of smallholder farmers’ X7 is extension visit monthly (dummy), access to rural transport infrastructures and services. X8 is level of annual rainfall, Access to rural transport infrastructures and servic- X9 is high land (dummy), es, captured as an average distance to major market, X10 is Horro (district dummy), average distance to farm plot, average distance to all X11 is distance to major market (km), weather-road, are expected to be negatively correlat- X12 is distance to all weather road (km), ed to the total values of purchased input use (Bekele X13 is distance to farm plot (km), X14 is transport cost (Ethiopian birr), road is also considered crucial to improving access to X15 is animal cart (Dummy), agriculturalet al. 2010). inputAvailability markets, of resultinggood quality in greater rural access use of X16 is good road (Dummy), productivity-enhancing modern agricultural inputs - of Transportation for local-level transport services in ε isrelationship. the random error component reflecting the dif rural(Jayne areas et al. is 2003). also expected Ownership to promoteof Intermediate increased Means use ference between the observed and fitted linear of purchased modern inputs. The above described independent variables were and computing the parameter estimates some pre- entered in to into a hierarchical linear regression dictorAfter variables fitting a arehierarchical omitted since linear they regression are much model less analysis through sequential block-enter approach so important or most likely affect the explanatory power as to predict smallholder farmers’ purchased input of the model if included. use. The choice of how to include independent variables was determined by researchers based the overall - 4. Results cal linear regression analysis, demographic variables, purposehousehold of theresource analysis. endowment In the first variables,block of hierarchi institu- 4.1 Preliminary analyses tional infrastructure variables, and physical and loca- There are a number of assumptions that must be met for multiple linear regression model to be reliable of independent variables. (Osborne and Waters 2002). Preliminary analysis to tion specific variables were entered as the first block ensure the non-violation of the assumptions of nor- Y 0 1X1 2X2 10X10 mality (Kim 2015; Miot 2017; Yap and Sim 2011), linearity (Osborne and Waters 2002), homoscedas- = βSince + β we are + β also +interested … + β in + examining ε the effect(1) ticity and multicollinearity (Daoud 2017; Friday and of rural transport infrastructure variables on small- - holder farmers’ purchased input use after demo- pleted prior to the analysis. The preliminary analysis graphic variables, household resource endowment revealedEmenonye that 2012; these Imdadullah assumptions et al. were 2016) not were seriously com variables, institutional infrastructure variables, and violated. - trolled for, we entered rural transport infrastructure 4.2 Descriptive statistics variablesphysical and (variables location specificof interest) variables in the have subsequent been con Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data. blocks of independent variables in the hierarchical Table 2 shows a descriptive analysis of continuous linear regression analysis (block 2). Therefore, to see variables by presenting numerical facts about the if the rural transport infrastructure variables predict quantitative dataset. The total number of observa- smallholder farmers’ purchased input use above and tions (n) was 500 smallholder farmers in four dis- beyond the effect of the controls and to test if succes- tricts of Horro Guduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethio- pia. The mean score for household size was 6.48, with model was developed. a standard deviation of approximately 3.31 points, sive model fit better than previous one the following 174 Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Lika Megento

Tab. 2 Descriptive statistics for continuous variables (n = 500).

Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Skewness Kurtosis Variable Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Age of household head 17 64 34.29 13.02 .56 −.77 Family size 2 12 6.48 3.31 .19 −1.29 Size of land holding .4 6.0 2.41 1.18 .45 −.48 Livestock ownership (TLU) .55 11.51 3.26 1.64 .95 1.59 Off farm income 0 9100 2416.30 2730 .89 −.68 Distance to major market 5 35 20.18 7.87 −.15 −1.16 Distance to farm plot .4 13.0 6.41 3.38 −.08 −1.07 Distance to all weather road 0 27 12.97 6.76 −.16 −.79 Transport cost .50 3.20 2.18 .78 −.53 −.74 Purchased input use 717.50 37644.43 10096.92 9357 1.44 1.09 Source: Compiled from field data, 2016.

4.3 Correlation analysis persons (CSA 2017). - figuresThe averagewhich are distance above to the the national nearest average major market of 4.6 - uesThe of strongest purchased negative input use significant was with the Pearson proximity prod to smallholders in the study area, while the average dis- all-weatheruct-moment roads: correlation r coefficientp for< .001. the totalWhereas val is about 20.18 km, indicating poor market access of the strongest positive Pearson product-moment cor- skewness and the kurtosis indices are very small and (498) = −.772, falltance within to all-weather the acceptable roads rangeis 12.97 km. which Theindicates values that for input use was with off-farm income: r prelation coefficient for the total values of purchased- cases or outliers (see Table 2). mination (r2 (498) = .654, theThe variables average most purchased likely do input not (chemical include influential fertilizer, weather < .001 road(Table explains 3). The 59.6% simple of coefficientthe variation of in deter total improved seed, and herbicides) value used for major values of purchased = 0.596) input indicated use by smallholder that distance farmers. to all food crop production (maize, wheat, and teff) is ETB Approximately, the other 40% of the total variance 10096.92. The result also indicates that on average between distance to all weather road and purchased smallholder farmers get about ETB 2416.30 income input use remains unexplained. This value of simple from off-farm employment. A household on average operates about 2.41 ha (SD relationship between distance to all weather road andcoefficient purchased of determination input use in the shows absence the ofbinary other linear inde- (CSA 2015; Tamene and Megento = 1.18), 2017). a result Finally, which on is pendent variables. Thus distance to all weather road average,two times households greater than incur the national a 2.18 averageETB to transportof 1.14 ha purchased input use. center to home. seems to explain a significant amount of variation in one kg of farm input for 100 km from input market

Tab. 3 Pearson correlations of purchased input use (dependent variable) and independent variables.

Independent Variables Correlation coefficient (r) P value Age of household head (years) −.419** .000 Family size (no.) .571** .000 Size of land holding (ha) −.416** .000 Livestock ownership (TLU) .263** .000 Off farm income (ETB) .654** .000 Distance to major market (km) −.745** .000 Distance to farm plot (km) −.467** .000 Distance to all weather road (km) −.772** .000 Transport cost (km) −.727** .000 Level of annual rainfall (mm) .114* .011 n = 500, ** P < .001 (2-tailed), * P < .05 (2-tailed) Source: Compiled from field data, 2016. Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 175

4.4 Hierarchical multiple regression model and disturbance term. The adjusted R2 value is A multiple regression analysis was conducted to 0.816, which is very close to the multiple R2, indicat- examine whether rural transport infrastructure, ing that we shouldn’t worry too much about whether institutional factors, resource endowment, and phys- we are using too many variables in the model. farmer’s purchased input use. The results of multiple 4.4.1 Rural transport infrastructure regressionical factors analysis could significantly using all sixteen predict independent smallholder variables are summarized in table 4 of model 2. A strong displayed in table 4 showed the relative importance relationship between purchased input use and the ofThe each estimated predictor unstandardized in the model. regression Among rural coefficients trans- independent variables was observed and the model port infrastructure variables, transport cost was the strongest negative predictor as indicated by its (R2 F p < .001). was a significant predictor of purchased inputR2) valuse- p < .001) followed by good road dum- ue of = .822, 0.822, indicates(16, 483) = 138.95, that approximately 82.2% of the estimated unstandardizedp < .001) and regression animal cart coefficient, dummy totalThe variation multiple in coefficient purchased of input determination use can be account( - (β = −3707.88,p < .05). The unstandardized regres- ed for by the linear combination of explanatory var- my (β = 1832.57, iables. But the remaining 17.8% of the variance has to(β = 1090.49, major market, distance to all weather road and been attributed to other variables not included in the distancesion coefficients to farm for plot the on association one hand between and smallholder distance

Tab. 4 Hierarchical egression for variables predicting purchased input use (n = 500).

Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Model t Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) 22750.229 11824.431 1.924 .055 Age of household head −98.328 23.189 −.137 −4.240 .000 Family size 651.186 102.507 .230 6.353 .000 Size of land holding −2572.812 288.302 −.325 −8.924 .000 Livestock ownership (TLU) 577.724 205.493 .101 2.811 .005 1 Off farm income 1.240 .113 .362 10.989 .000 Membership in a cooperative 2801.652 602.726 .145 4.648 .000 Extension visit monthly_Dummy 571.666 542.847 .027 1.053 .293 Level of annual rainfall (mm) −8.864 7.432 −.038 −1.193 .234 High land_Dummy 2078.012 725.521 .100 2.864 .004 Horro_Dummy 1046.011 611.352 .044 1.711 .088 (Constant) 22594.157 10233.971 2.208 .028 Age of household head −7.988 18.552 −.011 −.431 .667 Family size 189.180 82.571 .067 2.291 .022 Size of land holding −1070.479 246.050 −.135 −4.351 .000 Livestock ownership (TLU) 38.776 168.814 .007 .230 .818 Off farm income .812 .092 .237 8.848 .000 Membership in a cooperative 1457.595 467.319 .076 3.119 .002 Extension visit monthly_Dummy 722.301 424.473 .035 1.702 .089 2 Level of annual rainfall (mm) 1.000 6.519 .004 .153 .878 High land_Dummy −269.070 574.761 −.013 −.468 .640 Horro_Dummy 3379.733 492.646 .142 6.860 .000 Distance to major market −160.575 46.674 −.135 −3.440 .001 Distance to all weather road −316.427 50.336 −.229 −6.286 .000 Distance to farm plot −215.478 61.132 −.078 −3.525 .000 Transport cost −3707.879 380.257 −.310 −9.751 .000 Animal cart_Dummy 1090.493 548.139 .044 1.989 .047 Good road_Dummy 1832.569 457.855 .096 4.003 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Purchased input use Note: R2 = .689 for model 1, R2 = .822 for model 2 and 2 = .133. Source: Compiled from field data, 2016. ΔR 176 Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Lika Megento farmers’ purchased input use on the other hand are 5. Discussion - - 5.1 Family size and purchased input use −160.57,cients are −316.43 46.67, 50.34 and −215.48 and 61.13 respectively; respectively. the asso The results of hierarchical multiple regression ciated standard errors for these regression coeffi revealed a positive relationship between family size 4.4.2 Household demographics and purchased input use indicating that large families The results of the regression model showed that spend more on purchased input use as compared to - - ings that explain how the number of family mem- p family size is an important factor identified to influ small families. There are many prior research find ence purchased input use (β = 189.18, t(485) = 2.29, smallholder farmers. For example, Nambiro (2008) 4.4.3= .02). Household resource endowment bers’ influences purchased input use decisions of the proportion of farm allocated to the cultivation t p < .001. Off- offound improved a significant hybrid positive maize seed.effect Another of family study size onby farmSize of income land holding is positively significantly associated predicted with total purchased values Kamara (2004) and Perz (2003) found availability ofinput purchased use, β = −1070.48, input use such (485) = −4.35, that, holding everything of family labor as a precondition for greater use of else constant, for each additional ETB off-farm chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and improved seeds. income, the total values of purchased input use is pre- Therefore, labor-augmenting technologies are impor- dicted to increase by .81 ETB, and this association is tant to encourage small families so that they can take part in input market participation. As a result, this statistically4.4.4 Institutional significant infrastructure (p < .001). variables that agricultural equipment designed for use in small As can be seen in table 4, membership in a coopera- farmfinding plots supports make inducedit feasible technical for farmers innovation to shift theory from labor-intensive practices to higher-yielding mecha- indicating smallholder farmers who are members of nized practices (Hayami and Ruttan 1993). tivecooperative had a significant associations positive were expectedregression to coefficient, invest ETB 1457.59 more than the nonmembers, after controlling 5.2 Household-level asset variables and purchased for the other variables in the model, and this result is input use p 5.2.1 Landholding 4.4.5statistically Location significant specific ( factors/district = .002). dummy - The value associated with being a farmer living in cant relationship between farm size and smallholder Horro district is ETB 3379.73 (adjusting for the oth- farmer’sThis study purchased found a inputnegative use. and Past statistically studies have signifi found a mixed result. For instance, the largest share of house- dummy variable is both positive and statistically sig- holds renting mechanization is more likely related to er variables in the model), and the coefficient on this . In

4.4.6nificant The (p unique < .001). contribution of rural transport infra- rolelarge of farming increased size farmland (Diao et al. values 2016; on Ma the et al. level 2018) of sup- structure related variables to purchased input use plementaryaddition, Ma feedet al. used(2018) for investigated dairy production the determinant. Kiplimo The percent of the variability in the purchased input use that can be accounted for by all the predictors a negative relationship between a continuous reduc- tionand inNgeno farm (2016)size (farm and fragmentation) Hung et al.(2007) and farm also house found- and hence is an excellent model. The change in var- together is 82.2%. ThisR is2 a significant contribution (2015) found the use of seed and fertilizer technolo- gieshold tolevel be inputscale-neutral, use. In contrary which tois thesetheir usefindings, intensity FAO ianceF(6, 483) accounted forp < (Δ .001.) wasIn this equal case, to the .689 − .822 percent- does not depend on farm size. FAO further underlined age= .133, of variabilitywhich was in significantly purchased inputdifferent use accountedfrom zero that, since fertilizer is ‘a land augmenting input’, small- for went up= 59.76, from 68.9% to 82.2%. The F change asso- holders use it intensively, probably to substitute for ciated with R2 - showing that adding rural transport infrastructure ing supporting the theory of induced technical inno- variables to the change model of .133 increases is statistically the model’s significant pre- vationland (p. which 10). Our advocates finding goesthe needin line to with substitute FAO’s find the dictive capacity. This is to mean that rural transport relatively less scarce and cheap factors of production infrastructure explained additional13.3% of the vari- (fertilizer) for more scarce and expensive ones (land) ance in purchased input use, after controlling for the (Hayami and Ruttan 1985;Hayami and Ruttan 1993). possible effects of potential confounding variables 2 p < 0.001]. The 5.2.2 Off-farm income β), intercept, The study revealed that income from off-farm sourc- [∆R = 0.133, ∆F (6, 483) = 59.764, Beta), - forunstandardized the full model regression are reported coefficients in table 5.( mentary inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, and high and the standardized regression coefficients ( es positively influenced the application of comple Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 177 yielding seed varieties. This is because off-farm income was an important source for smallholder farmers to increase their market access to agricultural inputs to greaterThis finding access also to corroboratesurban markets the increases ideas of theNin-Pratt inten- intensify production. Findings of this study are in line sity(2016) of input and Katungi use and et al. productivity (2011), who in the suggested rural sector. that off-farm income earning opportunities drive small- 5.4.2 Distance to farm plot with those of Dahal et al. (2007), who concluded that As expected, the regression result showed that plot (2004) also found that farmers’ access to adequate and distance from the homestead has a negative and sig- holders towards agricultural intensification. Kamara their use of modern agricultural inputs. Moreover, in input use. It may be the case therefore that the more sustainable off-farm income has a significant effect on- remotenificant therelationship farm plot with from total farmer’s values residence, of purchased the lesser would be the probability of purchased agricul- atheir source seminal of income work, for Lim-Applegate Australian farm et al. families. (2002) point tural input utilization. This result is in line with the ed out the significance of off-farm employment as 5.3 Cooperative membership and purchased input - use findings of a great deal of the previous work in this Membership in agricultural cooperatives is among the field.distance For from instance the homestead Hailu et al. and (2014) probability found ofa statischem- variables that determine the propensity of smallhold- icaltically fertilizer significant adoption negative decision. relationship By using between a dataset plot er farmer’s participation in the agricultural input market. In this research, it was expected to have a positive located adjacent to the homestead are more likely to - from Ghana, Kotu et al. (2017) also found that plots- es than the more distant ones. ofinfluence. participation Accordingly, in agricultural membership input marketing. in farmer Therecoop adopt sustainable agricultural intensification practic areeratives several was points found that to significantly help us to maintain influence this the view.level 5.4.3 Distance to all weather road Firstly, agricultural cooperatives play a pivotal role in The current study found a negative and statistically subsidizing fertilizer and seed distribution. Secondly, participating in farmer organizations has the poten- road and total values of purchased input use. It is evi- tial to secure better prices for produce. And thirdly, dentsignificant that the association cost of transport between is distance determined to all by weather taking they also play a key role in improving farmer’s access account of road roughness and seasonality. All weather to technical advice. The results thus obtained are road was reported from earlier studies to be an impor- compatible with previous studies. For instance, in tant variable which explains variations in purchased - input use. For example, in Madagascar, Ninnin (1997) ed that membership to cooperative society was the reported that dry season fares were less costly than their research findings, Birachi et al. (2011) indicat wet season fares. By using data drawn from longitudi- among food crop farmers in Burundi. Furthermore, nal Ethiopian Rural Household Surveys, Wondemu and significant driver of agricultural commercialization Weiss (2012) also reported that improving the class relationship between participation in pools (cooper- of rural roads to a degree that allows all-weather road atives)Carrer and et al. the (2018) adoption found of forward significant contracts and positive among access sharply increases average household income. citrus growers in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. They further established that with the equal level of farmland ownership, having paved road access allows 5.4 Rural transport infrastructure and purchased a smallholder farmer to generate 82% higher income input use than would be the case with poor access road. Using cross-sectional data, Beshir (2014) also examined the 5.4.1 Distance to major market factors that affect the probability of improved forage Access to agricultural input markets is expected seeds adoption in two districts of South Wollo zone, to be negatively correlated with the total values of - purchased input use. It is, therefore, hypothesized cant relationship between distance to all weather road that reduced distance to major market will positive- andEthiopia. the probability He found aof negative adoption and and statistically intensity of signifi use of ly affect smallholder farmers’ purchased input use. improved forage seeds. association between distance to the nearest major 5.4.4 Transport cost marketAs expected, and total there values was of a purchasednegative and input significant use. The - ers with reduced physical distance to input markets totalThe coefficientvalues of purchased of transport input cost use (seeincurred Table had 4). This the havecurrent a higher results probability confirmed theof using hypothesis modern that agricul farm- isexpected because, negative on the whole, sign and it has significant been established effect on that the tural inputs than those who are remote (Hailu and there is a strong correlation between transport cost Fana 2017). This is partly because the costs of obtain- incurred and the ability of smallholder farmers to ing agricultural inputs such increase more quick- purchase and use modern agricultural inputs. This ly with increased distance to input supply centers.

finding is consistent with previous studies of Kotu 178 Sileshi Tamene, Tebarek Lika Megento

variables are controlled, a good road condition, as input markets characterized by high transaction and opposed to bad road condition, will result in an addi- transportet al. (2017), costs, who in reported Ghana, farmersthat because mostly of inefficientpay high- tional ETB 1832.569 investment in purchased input use by smallholder farmers. This current study fur- potassium (NPK) fertilizer. In another study in Aus- ther showed that a good road system from input mar- tralia,er than Freebairn official prices (2003), for reportednitrogen, thatphosphorus Australians and ket to the farms would allow easy and timely access who live in remote rural areas will incur additional to purchased inputs. This might also partly explain transport costs to get access to some services offered why good-quality roads (paved roads) provide a good in large urban areas. Similarly, according to Wonde- mu and Weiss (2012), high input prices due to lack rural economy. of infrastructure, such as underdeveloped rural road stimulusA study to by farm Quan profitability (2009) showed and productivity that good physiof the- networks have led to high transport costs for farm cal connections to input markets are a fundamental inputs, thus holding back farmers’ demand for pur- enabler for smallholder farmer’s purchased input chased input use. use. He further showed that good road access being paramount for farm input commercialization through 5.4.5 Mode of transport new technologies that increased the yield of basic The survey showed a marked variation in the pur- food crops. Another recent study in Kenya and Tan- chased input use among smallholder farmers by type of transport mode owned and used. This research poor accessibility challenges that smallholder farm- found that an improvement in the mode of rural erszania experience by Bradbury in getting et al. (2017) agricultural explicitly inputs revealed from the transport use from head-loading to animal cart will market to the farms. In their examination of the trans- result in an additional 1090.493 birr investment in port costs and access constraints for well connected purchased input use by smallholder farmers. The and remote rural farmers of Kenya and Tanzania, they supply of agricultural inputs was expected to increase found that smallholders who are linked by a network substantially with the increased probability of mod- maintained and mostly impassable during the rainy used can seriously affect access to farm inputs. As seasonsof unclassified, are less likelyearth toaccess use of tracks purchased that inputsare poorly than aal result, shift. The with overall respect efficiency to transport of the mode transport owned mode and those who are connected to good road networks link- used, modern input use was expected to be higher ing farming areas to major markets. for smallholder farmers who owned animal cart as compared to those who use the various methods of human porterage (head, shoulder, and back-loading). 6. Conclusion and policy implications the most deriving factor for input market participa- It is incontestable that rural road connectivity and tionOur findingwhere the reveals difference that ownership in purchased of pack input animals use was is rural transport services are among the key compo- seen among those who own and not. nents for rural development, as it promotes access to economic and social services, stimulating the demand access to an improved mode of transport that helps to and consumption of purchased agricultural inputs movePast farm empirical inputs from findings input suggesteddelivery center that to limited home- that in turn enhance production and productivity of stead and from homestead to farm remains a major the farmers. To this end, this study revealed that size challenge for smallholder farmers (Hine 2004). of land holding, distance to major market, distance According to Zewdie (2015), those households who to all-weather road, distance to farm plot, transport face binding transport constraints may be unsuccess- ful to afford the maximum desired levels of input use. purchased input use. Whereas family size, off-farm The traditional mode of transport like human porter- income,cost have and a membershipsignificant negative in a cooperative relationship are found with age negatively affected the level of input use for agricultural production in Nigeria (Akramov 2009; Orak- farmers’ purchased input use. to beTwo significant important and policy positively implications related toemerged smallholder from as fertilizer and improved seeds is very low among the study: First, to free smallholder farmers from thosewue et al. smallholders 2015). Yet, who the do use not of ownimproved transport inputs, animals such a vicious cycle of subsistence production, policy as compared to those who own the same. In Ethiopia reforms in the area of rural infrastructure, access to too, transport mode choice is said to be an increas- input markets and to credit facilities must be the cen- ingly important area in getting access to agricultural tral government and local government’s rural devel- inputs for smallholder farmers (Kassa 2014). need a close policy follow-up so as to enhance produc- 5.4.6 Road Condition tionopment and top productivity priority. Second, of farmers. input Hence, use intensification a policy-mix Linking smallholder farmers with a good road net- that can increase smallholder farmers’ off-farm income is desirable as income is a critical predictor of to and utilization of purchased farm inputs. If all other improved seed and fertilizer use. work was found to be positive and significant in access Effect of rural transport on smallholder farmers’ purchased input use 179

7. Limitations and future research directions Beshir, H. (2014). Factors affecting the adoption and intensity of use of improved forages in North East First and foremost, the most obvious limitation of this Highlands of Ethiopia. American Journal of Experimental study is its cross-sectional design. This limitation calls upon future research to adopt a longitudinal (time /AJEA/2014/5481. Beyene,Agriculture B., Hundie, 4(1), D., 12–27, Gobena, https://doi.org/10.9734 G. (2015): Assessment series) study approach to robustly capture the impact on dairy production system and its constraints in of public infrastructure investment towards determin- Horoguduru Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia. Science, ing the exact role of rural transport infrastructure in purchased input use. Second, the environmental costs https://doi.org/10.4314/star.v4i2.28. of modern agricultural input use were overlooked by Birachi,Technology E. A., Ochieng, and Arts J., Research Wozemba, Journal D., Ruraduma, 4(2), 215–221, C., this study; therefore, future research concerns should consider a more in-depth analysis of the impact of farmers’ bean production and supply to market in modern agricultural input use on environmental qual- Niyuhire, M. C. (2011): Factors influencing smallholder ity. To measure smallholder farmers’ purchased input Bradbury, A., Hine, J., Njenga, P., Otto, A., Muhia, G., Willilo, S. (2017):Burundi. Evaluation African Crop of the Science effect Journal of road 19(4), condition 335–342. on the of variable inputs was used. Purchased input use in quality of agricultural produce (Report No. RAF2109A). thisuse intensity,study is therefore the total financial refers to cost the (monetaryquantity of value) mon- United Kingdom: Cardno Emerging Markets (UK) Ltd. Carrer, M. J., Silveira, Rodrigo L. F., Filho, H. M. (2019): ey that smallholder farmers spent on major food crop variable inputs (chemical fertilizer, improved seed, from Brazilian citrus growers. Australian Journal of and pesticides) in 2015/16 crop production season. Factors influencing hedging decision: evidence Indeed, in order to estimate the extent of purchased https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12282. input use we used information on quantity of varia- Agricultural and Resource Economics 63(1), 1–19, ble inputs used and the prices at which they are purchased. Since the effect of agricultural input use on Christiaensen,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.02.002. L. (2017): Agriculture in Africa – Telling farmers’ productivity is not the concern of this paper, CSA.myths (2011): from Federal facts: ADemocratic synthesis. RepublicFood Policy, of Ethiopia 67, 1–11, it can be another potential area for future study. Central statistical Agency Statistical Abstract, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. CSA. (2014): Agricultural sample survey: Report on farm management practices for private peasant holdings, 3, References Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. CSA. (2015): Key Findings of the 2014/2015 Agricultural Abdullah, Ahamad, R., Ali, S., Chandio, A. A., Ahmad, Sample Surveys. The Federal Democratic Republic of W., Ilyas, A., Din, I. U. (2017): Determinants of Ethiopia Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Commercialization and its impact on the Welfare of CSA. (2017): Ethiopia: Demographic and health survey Smallholder rice Farmers by using Heckman’s two-stage 2016. Central Statistical Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia approach. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural and ICF International, Maryland, USA. Dahal, B. M., Sitaula, B. K., Bajracharya, R. M. (2007): /j.jssas.2017.06.001. Akramov,Sciences K. 18(2), (2009): 224–233, Decentralization, https://doi.org/10.1016 agricultural services and food security in Nepal. Asian Journal of Water, and determinants of input use in Nigeria (IFPRI Sustainable agricultural intensification for livelihood Discussion Paper No. 00941). Washington, D.C., USA: Daoud, J. I. (2017): Multicollinearity and regression International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Environment and Pollution 5(2), 1–12. Retrieved from http://www.ifpri.org/category https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/949/1/012009. /publication-type/discussion-papers. Delaney,analysis. S., Livingston,Journal of Physics: G., Schonberger, Conference S. (2017). Series 949,Right 1–6, Arethun, T., Bhatta, B. P. (2012): Contribution of rural place, right time: Increasing the effectiveness of roads to access to- and participation in markets: agricultural development support in sub-Saharan Africa Theory and results from Northern Ethiopia. Journal of development support in sub-Saharan Africa. South

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The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe with special regards to proximate determinants of fertility Collet Muza*

Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Prague, Czechia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT The role of proximate determinants in moderating fertility decline is well documented in developing countries. In Zimbabwe, however, there is a limited understanding of the role of proximate determinants on fertility levels and trends. This study aimed to examine the role of proximate determinants of fertility (namely marriages, postpartum infecundity and contraception) using the Bongaarts proximate determinants model. The impact of these determinants is studied on a sample of married women aged 15–49 years’ and corresponding cross-sectional data obtained through the six consecutive Zimbabwe Demographic Health Surveys (ZDHSs) hold in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2005 and 2015. The results reveal that the overall fertility declined from 5.4, 3.8 and 4.0 children per woman observed among 1988, 1999 and 2015 ZDHSs, respectively. This change was caused by the contraceptive inhibitive effect, which correspondingly increased from 3.00 to 4.65 and 6.45 children per woman. The fertility stalling observed in 1999 and after that is caused by postpartum infecundity and marital fertility inhibition which decreased with time. Moreover, contraceptive inhibition effect increased with education, wealth quintiles, and urban residence. In contrast, marital and postpartum infecundity fertility inhibition effects inversely correlate with education, wealth quintiles, and the place of residence. Therefore, to foster further fertility decline to replacement level, policies should promote contraceptive adoption, more extended breastfeeding periods and delay entry into early marriages. Furthermore, women empowerment, especially the promotion of female education to higher education and female employment, could be useful tools to further fertility decline.

KEYWORDS proximate determinants; fertility stalling; decomposition; Bongaarts model

Received: 18 April 2019 Accepted: 25 September 2019 Published online: 9 December 2019

Muza, C. (2019): The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe with special regards to proximate determinants of fertility. AUC Geographica 54(2), 182–193 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.16

© 2019 The Author. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe 183

1. Introduction - sis-driven fertility decline is when a combination of - high(Mhloyi costs 1988; of living, Müller declining et al. incomes, 2013). In civil contrast, unrest and cri enced either sustained high fertility or fertility stalling persistence droughts in Zimbabwe has forced couples, atA significant midway transition, number of which African has countries put future have prospects experi regardless of their levels of modernization, to adopt of fertility decline into doubt and made demographers their fertility downwards (Mhloyi 1988). For instance, question the demographic transition theory. Accord- the costs related to the education of the children rath- ing to Bongaarts (2008), fertility stalling is when er than the education of mothers themselves have led women to decrease their demand for children. In other decline of 10% or more between two successive sur- aveys country demographic does not and experience health surveys. significant Consequently, fertility from children to parents (Caldwell and Caldwell 2002). because of sustained high fertility and low mortality, words,However, the high Gould costs (2015) of living has reverse argued thatthe wealth crisis-driv flow- the population growth rate in Africa has remained en fertility decline cannot be sustained in the long high at about 2.5% per annum since 1960 (United run. Precisely fertility in Zimbabwe has stalled at Nations 2017). The population doubling time asso- midway transition at about 4 children per woman since 2000 (ZIMSTAT and ICF International 2016). - The question is whether fertility stalled as a result of lionciated from with 1960 such to an 2015 annual (ibid.). growth The challengerate is 28 years. is that changes in background variables or changes in proxi- highThus, population the population growth of Africa has been grew shown from 0.3to negatively to 1.2 bil mate determinants? affect socio-economic and human development (Bird- Although the effects of the proximate determi- sall and Sinding 2001). This is alarming since Africa nants on fertility have been documented in Zimbabwe is already the world’s least developed region (United (Guilkey and Jayne 1997; Letamo and Letamo 2001; Nations 2017). Mhloyi 1986; Muhwava and Muvandi 1994; Siban- In 1956, it was propounded that socioeconomic da 1999), little has been done recently to show the background factors operate through 11 proximate current scenario with regard to proximate determinants. Undoubtedly, the socioeconomic circumstances society (Davis and Blake 1956). Further, Bongaarts (1978)determinants revised to andinfluence reduced the Davies level of and fertility Blake’s in any 11 which might also change the proximate determinants. into 7 proximate determinants of fertility. Further- Thus,appear this to studyhave changed seeks to sinceassess significantly the proximate changed, deter- more, Bongaarts (1982) demonstrated, that 96% of minants of fertility in Zimbabwe, incorporating recent fertility levels and variation in developing countries data. The data were pooled from 6 consecutive (1988, is a result of four main proximate determinants; 1994, 1999, 2005 2010, and 2015) Zimbabwe Demo- marriage, postpartum infecundity, abortion and con- graphic and Health Surveys (ZDHSs). This study will traception. The remaining seven variables explain contribute to our knowledge and understanding of a small part of the total fertility rate variation (ibid.). proximate determinants of fertility in Zimbabwe and The challenge is that Africa lacks historical and cur- how they have associated fertility levels and trends. rent complete vital registration systems for conduct- A substantial body of literature has generally ing such analysis (Dyson 2013). However, the seminal agreed that Africa’s early and universal nuptiality con- work of Notestein (1945) has established that the ditions are more conducive to high fertility rates than fertility revolution from natural to controlled fertil- witnessed in Europe’s historical conditions (Chesnais ity regimes is a result of the deliberate adoption of 1992; Coale 1973; Dyson 2013). Undeniably, entry birth control methods (contraception). Unlike Europe into marriage serves as a risk factor to childbearing where women of older reproductive ages used stop- as most of the childbearing was happening in mar- ping reproductive behaviour and natural methods of riages (Bongaarts 1982; Coale 1973). In Zimbabwe, - a recent study by Sayi and Sibanda (2018) based on ods of contraception were used for both child spacing 2014 Zimbabwe Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey andfertility stopping limitation, in younger in Africa, and olderefficient reproductive modern meth ages respectively (Caldwell and Caldwell 2002). Thus, in Africa, the fertility revolution, although still incom- about(MICS) 32% indicates were thatmarried 1 in before4 women 18 agedyears 15–19 of age. years Fur- plete, once started, is more rapid than Europe’s his- ther,were thecurrently gap between married, marriage while among and childbearing 20–49 years is torical fertility transitions. very small as couples seek to strengthen their mar- In Zimbabwe, fertility had declined from TFR 5.4 in riage with children (Chitereka and Nduna 2010). Mar- 1984 to 3.8 in 1999 has been both development and crisis-driven fertility decline (Mhloyi 1988; Müller to fertility levels as remarriages occur early (Mhloyi 1988).ital dissolutions However, ithave is possible been found that nuptialityto be insignificant patterns typical of the Becker’s theory of fertility decline when changed with time and consequently fertility levels. foret al. instance, 2013). Development-driven highly urbanized, educated fertility declineand high is Polygyny is generally high and variable in Africa. incomes women were further ahead in the fertility McDonald (1985) reported that polygyny ranged from transition than disadvantaged socioeconomic groups 10% to 67% in Lesotho and Senegal, respectively. In 184 Collet Muza

Zimbabwe in a recent survey, polygamous unions a later study using 2005/06 DHS data on Zimbabwe have been found to be 8% and 16% in urban and rural Mturi and Kembo (2011) reveal that high contracep- areas, respectively (ZIMSTAT and ICF International tion prevalence rate was the most important factor of 2016). Studies on the effects of polygamy on fertility fertility decline even during periods of socioeconomic offer contradictory evidence. On the one hand, since development and socioeconomic crisis. The question women in the polygamous union share time of hus- is why fertility in Zimbabwe has stalled at midway band, they have less exposure to sex than women in transition given such high contraceptive prevalence monogamous relationships and correspondingly have rate? South Africa (TFR 2.3) and Botswana (TFR 2.6) less risky to pregnancy. Moreover, women in polyg- with similar contraceptive prevalence levels and they amous unions have been noted to breastfeed longer have lower fertility approaching replacement lev- than women in monogamous unions (Sayi and Siban- el fertility (United Nations 2017). This is important da 2018; Mhloyi 1988). On the other hand, Mhloyi given that studies have revealed contraception prev- (ibid.) argued that women in polygamous unions’ alence of 75% is associated with replacement level demand for children is higher than women in monog- fertility (Mahjabeen and Khan 2011). amous unions, as more children offer them security, It is also possible that contraceptives such as con- respect and access to husband’s wealth. The question doms might be used for HIV prevention but not paris, has the polygyny patterns changed with inevitable modernization? Furthermore, although variable and decreas- contributoryity-specific fertility effects limitationof the proximate behaviour determinants (Terceira ing with modernization, Africa’s long postpartum varyet al. positively2003). Nonetheless, with women studies empowerment, have revealed i.e. wom the- abstinences were strategies ensuring the survival en’s education, wealth quintiles, urban and rural res- of already born children through prolonged birth idence. In Zambia, secondary education and urban spacing rather than deliberate birth control methods residence and wealth were established to be positive- (ibid.). Caldwell and Caldwell (2002) have argued ly related to higher relative fertility inhibition effect that child spacing is embedded in the African cul- in marriage and contraception whilst postpartum ture, and high levels of contraceptive use might be for infecundability was inversely correlated (Chola and spacing and not stopping childbearing. Nonetheless, it can be hypothesised that postpartum infecundity has decreased with modernization. In the absence of KemboMichelo 2011; 2016). Sibanda Similar 1999). findings were made in Uganda alternative contraceptive adoption or increments, fer- (Rutaremwa et al. 2015) and in Zimbabwe (Mturi and tility can increase. Several studies have employed the Bongaarts 2. Data and methods framework for the analysis of the fertility differentials, levels and transitions in Africa (Chola and Mich- 2.1 Sources of data This paper utilizes pooled data from 6 consecutive 2015; Mturi and Kembo 2011; Sibanda 1999; Bon- ZDHSs conducted in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010 gaartselo 2016; 1978). Majumder A recent and analysis Ram 2015; of countries Rutaremwa in the et al. ear- and 2015. In each survey year, a nationally represent- ly stages of fertility transition namely Namibia (Pal- amuleni 2017); Zambia (Chola and Michelo 2016), which were conducted under the collaboration of Zimbabweative survey National of ever-married Statistics women Agency of (ZIMSTAT)age 15–49 1996), and found the dual importance of marriage and ICF International. The ZDHSs provides nation- andUganda postpartum (Rutaremwa infecundability et al. 2015), Malawias most (Palamuleni important ally representative data on basic health social and predictors of fertility outcomes. The contribution of demographic indicators. The study utilized this data contraception was least although it was increasing rapidly. assessing the contribution of marriage, contraception - andin order postpartum to fit the infecundability aggregate fertility in Zimbabwe.model, thereby The cant fertility decline, it has been established that the fertility estimates were also disaggregated by a num- contributionIn African countriesof contraception that have is theexperienced most important signifi ber of selected socioeconomic variables, namely resi- and amenable to fertility reduction (Finlay, Mejia- dence, education and wealth quintiles. Guevara and Akachi 2018; Majunder and Ram 2015; Mturi and Kembo 2011; Sibanda 1999). Sibanda 2.2 Sampling (1999) looking at the relative contribution of prox- The sample sizes of the interviewed women age imate determinants in Zimbabwe and Kenya using two consecutive surveys for each country show that in Zimbabwe contraception is the most important Sampling(15–49) were was selecteddone using based a two-stage on a master cluster sampling sam- factor in fertility decline in younger and middle ages. plingplan which process. was Initially, provided clusters by ZIMSTAT are selected(1988–2015). from In Kenya, with slightly higher fertility than Zimba- a list of clusters obtained from the master sampling bwe, it was found that postpartum infecundity was plan provided by ZIMSTAT, followed by a section of the most important factor followed by marriage. In households from each cluster. The data obtained were The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe 185

2.4 Index of marriage (Cm) considered adequate to enable analysis and com- The index of marriage (Cm) measures the inhibit- stratified by rural and urban areas. The samples are ing effects of marriage on fertility in the population. of socioeconomic and demographic locus that could The lower the proportions of married, the higher the guideparisons fertility that andwould population be useful policy in the interventions identification in inhibiting effects of marriage and the inverse is true. Zimbabwe. since inhibiting effects of marriage are marital age 2.3 Analytical framework distributionHowever, age-specific sensitive. Childbearingmarital proportions is greatest are in used the Bongaarts’ proximate determinants model (1978, 1982) was applied for analyzing proximate deter- - minants of fertility from the six successive ZDHSs tioncentral is the age assumption distribution that years. only Marriage women inis definedmarriages as named above. Bongaarts and Potter (1983) devel- areformal exposed or consensus to the risk marriages. of childbearing. Implicit in The this ZDHSsdefini oped a technique to quantify the impact of four proximate determinants on fertility, namely marriage, con- cohabitation as a marital union in Zimbabwe. This traception, abortion, and postpartum infecundability. wasdone not in the1999, case 2005, in 1988 2010 and and 1994 2015 since has no classified informa- They assume that the total fecundity rate (TF) of all tion was collected on this variable. In order to make women is the same, but their real reproductive per- proximate determinants. The mechanism of the mod- estimatedthe ZDHSs asmarital follows: definition comparable, we take the elformance is summarized is modified by relating by the the above fertility four measures mentioned to earlier definition used in 1988 and 1994. The index is ( ) ( ) the proximate determinants. The basic model equa- = (Bongaarts 1982), ( ) tions are: ∑ ∑ (a) TFR = Cm × Ci × Cc × Ca × TF (Bongaarts 1982), where m(a (b) TM = Ci × Cc × Ca × TF (Chola and Michelo 2016), married women. This characteristic is computed by (c) TN = Ci × TF (ibid.), dividing the) number is age-specific of married proportions women by currently the total number of women in the same age group. Also, g(a) where TFR is the number of births, a woman would have at the end of her reproductive years if she were by dividing the births of a particular age group (from marriedis age-specific women) marital by the fertility number rates. of married It is computedwomen in rates throughout the reproductive period. Total mari- the same age group. talto bear fertility children rate ( TMat the) is prevailingthe number age-specific of births a fertilitywoman would have at the end of her reproductive year if she 2.5 Index of contraception C( c) The index of contraception measure the inhibiting marital fertility rates and remain married during the effects of modern methods of contraception on fertil- entirewere to reproductive bear children period at the (Bongaarts prevailing 1987).age-specific Total ity in a population which also varies with the preva- natural fertility rate (TN) is observed under condi- lence and use-effectiveness of contraception used by tions in which contraception and abortions are elimi- couples in the reproductive age groups. The higher nated (Bongaarts 1982). Bongaarts noted that whilst the level of contraception in a population, the higher TFR, TM, and TN vary in many populations, total the inhibiting effect of contraception and vice versa. fecundity is constant in all populations. Total natural The index of contraception is estimated using the fecundity rate (TF) index is estimated as follows: following:

TF = TFR / (Cm × Ci × Cc × Ca) (Bongaarts 1982), Cc u × e (Bongaarts and Potter 1983), where, Cm, Ci, Cc, and Ca are indices of marriage, where = 1 – u 1.08 is the × average proportion of married wom- postpartum infecundability, and contraception and en currently using contraception; is average contra- induced abortion, respectively. The indices can only - take values between 0 and 1. Where there is no fer- rility correction factor (represents the adjustment tility inhibiting effect of a given intermediate fertili- forceptive the facteffectiveness. that women The do coefficient not use contraception 1.08 is the ste if ty variable, the corresponding index equals one, and they know they are sterile). The parameter e values when the fertility inhibition is complete the index proposed for particular contraceptives are as follows: equal 0 (Bongaarts 1982). Abortion is illegal in Zim- pill 0.90, IUD 0.95, injection 0.99, sterilization 1.00, babwe (ZIMSTAT and ICF International 2016; Siban- others 0.70 (Bongaarts and Potter 1983). da 1999), and there is limited and unreliable information. Therefore, the index of abortion in this study 2.6 Index of postpartum infecundability (Ci) will be 1. The contribution of abortion is regarded as The index of postpartum infecundability is a measure of the inhibiting effect of breastfeeding or sexu- the measure of proximate variables. al abstinence on fertility in a population (Bongaarts insignificant. The indices can be approximated from 186 Collet Muza

1982). The index of postpartum infecundability in the 2016). Moreover, abortion data in the ZDHSs include model is estimated using the effect of breastfeeding (lactation amenorrhea) or postpartum abstinence. to isolate abortion data. The index of abortion is esti- The index was calculated as follows: matedstillbirths using and the miscarriages. following formula: Therefore, it is difficult

C1 = 20/18.5 + i (Bongaarts 1982), Ca = TFR /TFR + b × TA = TFR/TFR + 0.4 × (1 + U) × TA (Bongaarts and Potter 1983) where the symbol i represents the average duration where U is contraceptive prevalence use, b is the postpartum ovulation (menses), in this research, the average number of births averted per induced abor- indexin months of postpartum of infecundability infecundability from birth was to estimated the first tion and b = 0.4(1 + U); b is 0.4 when U = 0 and b = 0.8 using the mean duration of breastfeeding. when U = 1.0. TA is total abortion (an average number of induced abortion per woman at the end of the 2.7 Index of abortion C( a) reproductive period if induced abortions remain at The index of abortion measures the inhibiting effect of prevailing levels throughout the reproductive period). abortion on fertility in a population. In this research, Then Ca = 1.0 if TA = 0. Therefore, the index of abor- the index of abortion was set 1.0 due to lack of data. tion in this study is equal to . Abortion is illegal in Zimbabwe excerpt for health Based on the studies of historical populations with and legal reasons (ZIMSTAT and ICF International the highest recorded fertility, Bongaarts recommends

Tab. 1 Percentage distribution of respondent women, 15–49 years by selected characteristics (weighted), 1988–2015, Zimbabwe.

1988 1994 1999 2005 2010 2015 Children born 1–3 34.9% 38.1% 44.7% 47.6% 52.3% 50.2% 4–5 16.7% 15.0% 12.9% 14.0% 14.6% 17.0% 6+ 19.9% 17.5% 12.6% 9.0% 6.7% 6.1% Never Marital status 27.0% 26.9% 27.7% 27.0% 24.0% 25.2% married Married 62.9% 61.8% 56.3% 56.3% 59.4% 58.7% Divorced 7.6% 7.8% 3.5% 4.5% 3.7% 5.0% Widowed 2.5% 3.5% 4.2% 7.5% 6.1% 4.4% Age group 15–19 24.3% 24.0% 24.5% 24.2% 21.2% 22.1% 20–24 20.0% 20.7% 21.9% 21.9% 20.1% 17.0% 25–29 16.2% 14.9% 17.5% 16.5% 18.4% 16.6% 30–34 14.0% 14.2% 11.3% 13.7% 14.1% 16.3% 35–39 11.0% 10.8% 10.8% 9.4% 11.5% 12.4% 40–44 7.6% 8.7% 7.9% 7.8% 8.0% 9.7% 45–49 6.9% 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 6.8% 5.8% Residence Urban 33.5% 32.2% 38.6% 39.3% 38.7% 38.5% Rural 66.5% 67.8% 61.4% 60.7% 61.3% 61.5% Education No education 13.5% 11.1% 6.7% 4.3% 2.3% 1.35 Primary 55.9% 47.3% 40.2% 32.6% 28.0% 25.8% Secondary 29.7% 40.0% 50.2% 60.15 65.1% 65.6% Higher 0.9% 1.6% 2.8% 3.0% 4.6% 7.3% Wealth quintile Poorest – 18.2% 17.1% 17.4% 16.9% 17.1% Poorer – 16.1% 17.3% 16.8% 17.4% 17.0% Middle – 18.9% 18.4% 17.4% 18.3% 17.6% Richer – 21.8% 22.3% 22.5% 22.6% 23.2% Richest 25.0% 24.9% 25.9% 24.8% 25.1% Modern (any) 36.1% 42.2% 50.4% 58.4% 57.3% 65.8% Family Planning (married) Traditional 7.0% 4.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% Mean duration of breastfeeding Months 18.9 18.8 19.0 18.7 17.5 18.1 Total (n) 4,201 6,128 5,907 8,907 9,171 9,955 – missing values Source: ZDHSs The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe 187 using 15.3 as the maximum number of births per 1% to 7% from 1988 to 2015 respectively. The dis- woman. This is referred to as the Total fecundity rate tribution of the respondents by age groups clearly (TF) (Bongaarts 1978; 1982). The value is the theo- demonstrate that percentage distribution diminished retical number that a woman would have if she were with an increase in age for the respective periods. The 1988 ZDHS did not collect data on wealth quintiles. use contraceptives and did not abort any pregnan- Nonetheless, for the later ZDHSs periods with avail- cies.to continuously Multiplying all married the indices from together age 15–44, by the did total not able data, the wealth quintiles stayed relatively the fecundity rate of 15.3 produces the predicted TFR for same with respondents in the lowest wealth quintile the population. The predicted TFR will normally dif- slightly decreasing from 18% to 17% and a simulta- fer from the observed TFR because of underreport- neous increase in the fourth wealth quintile from 22 ing of births; misreporting of behaviours measured to 23% in 1988 and 2015 respectively. by the indices or omission of proximate factors that Table 1 also shows the distribution of the study by help determine fertility levels in the population under selected key proximate determinants of fertility. The study. The Bongaart’s model was also applied for cal- percentage currently married and single declined culation of the proximate determinants for selected from 63%, 56%, 59% and 27%, 24%, 25% in 1988, background characteristics as the place of residence, 1999 and 2015 respectively. The currently married education and wealth quintiles. percentages were considered as proportion currently married in computing the indices for marriage. Mean duration of breastfeeding from ZDHSs reports was, 3. Results on average 18.5 months from 1988 to 2015, respectively, and this is what was used in the calculations The individual characteristics of the respondents for to represent the average duration of the postpartum six successive ZDHSs conducted between 1988-2015 infecundability. With regard to contraception, there are shown in table 1. The results show that the per- has been an increase in modern contraception use by centages living in rural areas decreased from 67% in married women from 36% in 1988 to 66% by 2015 1988 to 61% by 2015. The results reveal that wom- and a simultaneous decrease in traditional methods en with no education and primary education were from 7% to 1% from 1988 to 2015 respectively. The reduced from 14% to 1% and 56% to 26% while above-mentioned information was used in the cal- women with secondary education simultaneously culation of fecundity. As highlighted in the equation increased from 30% to 66% between 1988 and 2015 above, the observed fertility levels in a population are respectively. The percentage of women with higher a product of the relationship of proximate determi- education is still very low, although it increased from nants and the maximum biological level of fertility.

20 TR marriage postpartum infecundailit 18

n 2,9

a ,15 m 14 ,91 o , ,7 ,02

,45 10 ,8 5,70 4,8 4,5 5,5

no. of li e i rt hs p er e 2,89 g ,14 ,58 ,29 ,5 ,2 Aer a 4

5,40 2 4,0 4,00 ,80 4,10 4,00

0 1988 1994 1999 2005 2010 2015

Fig. 1 Effects of proximate determinants on the total fertility rate. 188 Collet Muza

Tab. 2 Estimated proximate determinants and their effect on fertility reduction, 1988–2015, Zimbabwe.

1988 1994 1999 2005 2010 2015 Proximate determinant index Proximate determinants indices

Index of marriage (Cm) 0.72 0.69 0.61 0.62 0.65 0.63

Index of contraception (Cc) 0.65 0.60 0.53 0.46 0.47 0.41

Index of postpartum infecundability (Ci) 0.65 0.65 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.66

Index of abortion (Ca) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Impact on fertility reduction percentage

Index of marriage (Cm) 18.9% 20.6% 23.4% 21.5% 21.9% 21.7%

Index of contraception (Cc) 25.2% 28.6% 30.4% 35.0% 37.3% 42.2%

Index of postpartum infecundability (Ci) 25.5% 23.9% 22.0% 19.7% 20.6% 19.2%

Index of abortion (Ca) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% TFR predicted 4.64 4.12 3.14 2.82 3.10 2.60 TFR observed 5.40 4.30 4.00 3.80 4.10 4.00 Source: ZDHSs and own calculations

The fecundity rate has been observed to vary from or one, the bigger or, the lesser the effect on fertility reduction, respectively. Table 3; reveal contracep- woman. tion fertility inhibition effect increased with time and 13–17Figure per 1, woman, reveals withthe effect an average of each of proximate 15.3 births deter per- is positively related to the socioeconomic variables. minant in absolute terms towards fertility reduction For example, between 1994 and 2015 contraception from the biological maximum of 15.3 children per inhibition effect of higher educated women increased woman, for 6 ZDHSs from 1988 to 2015. In 1988, from 60% to 68% respectively, whilst least educat- the biggest fertility inhibition (TFR) was caused by ed women contraception fertility inhibition effect postpartum infecundity (Ci) 3.91, followed by con- increased from had 25% to 42% in 1994 and 2015 traception (Cc) 3.86 and marriage (Cm) 2.89 children respectively. The wealth quintile data collection starts per woman. The contraception fertility inhibition from 1994 and shows that the higher the wealth quin- effect continuously increased to 6.45 children per tile, the stronger the effect of contraception, for exam- woman by 2015, whilst marriage fertility inhibition ple in 1994 poorest and richest quintiles had 30% and increased to a peak of 3.58 in 1999 before decreas- 53%, which increased to 55% and 65% respectively - by 2015. Urban areas had higher contraception inhi- partum infecundability fertility inhibition effect has bition effect than rural areas which increased from decreaseding to 3.32 children to 2.93 children per woman per woman in 2015. by 2015.The post TFR 47% and 30% to 64% and 56% between 1988 and has also decreased from 5.40 in 1988 to 4.10 by 2015. 2015 respectively. Table 3; shows contraception fer- Surprisingly, the TFR decline reversed from 3.80 in tility inhibition stagnation or reversals for period 2005 to 4.10 in 2010. 2010 for most socioeconomic variables. Surprisingly, In terms of percentages, the impact of each prox- married women in rural areas, of middle and poorest imate determinant is displayed in Table 2. In 1988 wealth quintiles did not experience contraception fer- contraceptive and postpartum infecundity accounted tility inhibition stagnation for periods under analysis. for 26% and 25% of fertility reduction, with marriage In 2015, married women with no education were the accounting the least of 19% respectively. Similarly as only socioeconomic groups with fertility contracep- in levels and trend in absolute TFR inhibition effect, tion inhibition effect below 50% with 42%. in 2015 the fertility reduction effects of marriage and The index of postpartum infecundability was observed to be inversely related to the selected soci- 22% respectively, whilst the effect of postpartum infe- oeconomic characteristics. The postpartum infecun- cundabilitycontraception decreased significantly to 20% increased from 26% tofor 42%the same and period. The values in Table 1 also show that the effect 1988 to 2015. For example, in 1988 to 2015 poorest of marriage and postpartum infecundability stagnat- anddity, richestalthough women fluctuating, had 37% has slightly and 32% increased postpartum from ed/reduced in 1994 and 1999, respectively, whilst the infecundity, which decreased to 35% to 30% respec- - tively. This suggests that the fertility inhibition effect uously. This suggests that married women who used of post-partum infecundity is higher at lower socio- contraceptioneffect of contraception contributed significantly the most increased towards fertilitycontin economic levels than high socioeconomic levels and reduction. have been slightly reduced across all socioeconomic Values in Table 3 shows the effects of the proximate groups over time. determinants on fertility by residence, education and The marriage inhibition index effect on fertility wealth. As noted above, the closer the index to zero is inversely related to education, urban and wealth The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe 189

Tab. 3 Estimated indices for the four principle determinants by selected background variables, 1988–2015, Zimbabwe.

Index of contraception (Cc) 1988 1994 1999 2005 2010 2015 Residence Urban 0.53 0.49 0.42 0.37 0.45 0.36 Rural 0.70 0.64 0.60 0.51 0.49 0.44 Education No education 0.76 0.75 0.68 0.72 0.62 0.58 Primary 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.52 0.52 0.46 Secondary 0.50 0.48 0.45 0.40 0.46 0.39 Higher – 0.40 0.38 0.30 0.40 0.32 Wealth Quintile Poorest – 0.70 0.62 0.58 0.52 0.45 Poorer – 0.69 0.61 0.49 0.51 0.45 Middle – 0.64 0.60 0.49 0.48 0.44 Richer – 0.53 0.50 0.39 0.45 0.38 Richest – 0.47 0.37 0.35 0.42 0.35 Index of postpartum infecundability (Ci) Residence Urban 0.68 0.67 0.64 0.68 0.68 0.69 Rural 0.63 0.64 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.65 Education No education 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.65 Primary 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.65 Secondary 0.69 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 Higher 0.73 0.85 0.73 0.77 0.70 0.72 Wealth Quintile Poorest – 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.65 Poorer – 0.63 0.61 0.64 0.65 0.65 Middle – 0.64 0.65 0.63 0.65 0.66 Richer – 0.65 0.64 0.65 0.68 0.68 Richest – 0.68 0.64 0.71 0.70 0.70 Index of marriage (Cm) Residence Urban 0.71 0.69 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.65 Rural 0.72 0.69 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.62 Education No education 0.69 0.67 0.62 0.61 0.58 0.69 Primary 0.70 0.66 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.60 Secondary 0.71 0.69 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.64 Higher 0.82 0.77 0.65 0.64 0.73 0.72 Wealth Quintile Poorest – 0.69 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.62 Poorer – 0.68 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.62 Middle – 0.70 0.63 0.61 0.62 0.63 Richer – 0.67 0.60 0.60 0.63 0.62 Richest – 0.70 0.61 0.64 0.67 0.67 – missing values Source: ZDHSs and own calculations quintiles. However, the marriage inhibition effect with the least decrease experienced by women with across all the selected socioeconomic variables slight- no educated. This suggests education increases are ly decreased with time (1988-2015). Marital fertility related to marital fertility reduction over time. urban areas between 1988 and 2005 rural. However, ininhibition 2005 and effect 2015, trend slightly is fluctuating higher marital between fertility rural inhi and- 4. Discussion bition effect was observed in rural areas (37% and 38%, respectively) than in urban areas (35% and 35%, The results from the Bongaarts model presented respectively). Higher educated women had lower mar- above reveal levels, trends and the impact of prox- ital fertility inhibition than less educated women. Fur- imate determinants of fertility, namely marriage, - postpartum infecundability, and contraception for ital fertility inhibition across all educational categories the six consecutive ZDHSs. The results quantify the ther, there is a general fluctuating but increase in mar 190 Collet Muza impact of each proximate determinant in absolute as to contraception adoption. This is made possible by well as percentage terms to total fecundity and fertil- increases in the prevalence rate of modern contra- ity decline in Zimbabwe. The results uncovered that ceptive use from 36% in 1988 and 66% in 2015 and contraception was the most important factor contrib- was responsible for fertility decline (ZIMSTAT and ICF uting to fertility decline experienced in Zimbabwe by International 2016). married women from TFR of 5.4 to 4.0 in 1988 to 2015 TFR at the national level fell from1988 (5.4) to respectively. Precisely, the contraception inhibition 2005 (3.8) (Figure 1). Thus the fall in TFR is well

25% to 42%, whilst marital inhibition effect although fertility transitions as a key threshold for entry into effect increased significantly and continuously from- non-reversibleabove 10%, a declinefigure that(Coale is 1973). cited inHowever, the historical the fer- tum infecundity inhibition effect decreased from 26% tility levels between 2005, 2010 and 2015 increased tofluctuating 19% in 1988 increased to 2015 from respectively. 19% to 22% A similar and postpar trend is from TFR 3.8, 4.1 and to 4.0 respectively. This means observed of fertility (TFR) suppression, as presented fertility decline in Zimbabwe stalled, as there was less - than 10% sustained TFR decline between successive ies that found that contraception adoption is the most importantin Figure 1. factor This finding for fertility concurs decline with previous in Zimbabwe stud - (Mturi and Kembo 2011; Sibanda 1999). Moreover, ingssurveys in a as substantial defined by number Bongaarts of sub-Saharan (2008). The fertilityAfrican countriesstalling finding (Bongaarts in Zimbabwe 2006; isGarenne in line with 2013; other Goujon, find in sub-Saharan Africa (Finlay, Mejia-Guevara and Aka- Lutz and Samir 2015; Lutz, Goujon and Kabat 2015). chithis 2018) finding and is consistentAsia (Majumder with other and Ram previous 2015). studies More However, during the respective stalling periods, the - overall contraceptive fertility inhibition effects contraception adoption is associated with further fertility tinuously strengthened from 5.35, 5.70 and 6.45 broadly, the results confirm the hypothesis that con- children per woman, respectively. Viewed from this empirical evidence, this suggests that fertility stalling declineFurther, as countries the decomposition move from non-parity of contraception specific fer- in Zimbabwe has not been caused by a lack of priori- tility toinhibition parity-specific by residence, fertility education regime (Coale and wealth1973). ty assigned to family planning services suggested by quintiles demonstrate a positive relationship. Analy- (Bongaarts 2008). However, it is plausible that mod- sis of change associated with contraception use helps ern contraceptive methods such as condoms were us examine in some limited way whether any increase used for HIV prevention rather than for fertility limi- in the fertility-inhibiting effects of contraception con- tation, given high HIV prevalence rate of 17% among stitute evidence of what Coale (1973) postulated as the necessary conditions for a fertility decline to start: ICF International 2016). (1) fertility is within the calculus of the conscious womenResults (15–49 indicated years) that in maritalZimbabwe fertility (ZIMSTAT inhibition and choice, (2) lower fertility is seen as advantageous, effects of marriage were the least important of all (3) effective means of birth control are readily avail- the proximate determinants in 1988 and 1994 and able and couples are willing to use them. The idea of thereafter became the second important after contra- using contraception (and socioeconomic variables) to ception. Equally important, marital fertility inhibition achieve a smaller ideal family size is grounded in van effects increased from 2.89 to 3.58 children per wom- de Walle’s concept of numeracy (van de Walle 1992; an in 1988 and 1999, before declining to 3.29 and 3.32 Sibanda 1999). This suggests that contraception children per woman in 2005 and 2015, respectively. adoption is single proximate determinant responsible It is possible that the erosion of the marital fertility for marital fertility decline in Zimbabwe. inhibition effect might be partly responsible for fertil- - (2017) and Chola and Michelo (2016) found out that sistent with other studies that have found the erosion marriageIn contrast not contraceptive to findings in was this the study, most Palamuleni important ofity marital stalling fertility during 2005inhibition and 2015. effect This as countries finding is move con proximate determinant for fertility inhibition in along the fertility transition (Chola and Michelo 2016; Namibia and Zambia, respectively. The differences Mturi and Kembo 2011; Muhwava and Muvandi 1994; between Zimbabwe and Namibia might be explained Sibanda 1999). Ministry of Health and Child Care by the fact that in Namibia, percentage current- (2016), research show an increase in early teenage pregnancies in Zimbabwe. This is important, consid- 25%, whilst in Zimbabwe, it was about 60% for the ering the gap between marriages and childbearing is respectively married periods.for women The aged discrepancy 15–49 years between was about Zim- very small in Zimbabwe (Chitereka and Nduna 2010; babwe and Zambia which have similar marital rates Sayi and Sibanda 2018). Thus, fertility stalling might can plausibly be explained by the fact that Zambia is be due to sustained cultural and traditional practices in the early stages of fertility transition (TFR 6.2 in which promote early marriage and childbearing. 2007) where fertility is more amenable to Malthusian The results show that the index of postpartum preventative checks (Malthus 1798), while Zimba- infecundability fertility-reducing effect has since bwe is in the midway of fertility transition (TFR 4.0 in decreased from the biggest (26%) in 1988 to the 2005, 2010 2015) where fertility is more susceptible least fertility inhibition effect by 1999 (22%) and The fertility revolution in Zimbabwe 191 continuously thereafter. This is consistent with previ- the decomposition of contraception effect by socioeconomic variables could partly explain fertility stalling Mturi 2011) and other countries in the region: Namib- iaous (Palamuleni findings in Zimbabwe2017), in Zambia (Sibanda (Chola 1999; and Kembo Michelo and from ZIMSTAT Census (2012) Nuptiality and The- 2016), Malawi (Palamuleni 1996). This means short maticnoted reportabove. whichThis finding found isthat consistent fertility stallingwith findings could breastfeeding possibly contributes to fertility stall- have been caused by fertility postponement in earlier ing noted above. In India, it was found that the risk of during periods of economic hardships and the fertil- pregnancy increases substantially after giving birth in ity rebounded when the economy stabilized in 2009 the absence of breastfeeding (Singh, Suchindran and (ZIMSTAT 2015). Singh 1993; Bongaarts and Potter 1983). Besides that, Moreover, the contraceptive fertility inhibition gap prolonged breastfeeding practices and postpartum between and within each socioeconomic group is abstinence have been used effectively in Africa, not narrowing. However, women with no education are only for birth spacing and subsequently reducing total lagging behind, e.g. in 2015, they had contraception fertility but also for increased child survival (Guikey inhibition effect of 42% when other socioeconomic and Jayne 1997; Mhloyi 1988). ZIMSTAT (2015) notes variables are below 64%. This is in line with the van de higher infant mortality among employed than unem- Walle’s (1992) concept of numeracy discussed above. ployed women in Zimbabwe, which is plausibly relat- Similar studies also highlight the importance of mass ed to inadequate and short breastfeeding by employed education in fertility decline in developing countries women. Child survival is considered a principal com- (Goujon, Lutz and Kabat 2015). The narrowing of the ponent of fertility decline (Coale 1973; Dyson 2013). contraceptive fertility inhibition gap between socioec- This suggests that the promotion of universal breast- onomic variables might suggest better future prospects for fertility decline. The strengthening contraception fertility decline through postpartum amenorrhea and fertility inhibiting effect among women of low socio- increasedfeeding among child survival.women can contribute to significant economic classes means that it is possible for fertility The analysis of education and wealth quintiles to decline in the low socioeconomic development envi- shows an inverse relationship with marriage and - postpartum infecundability. Rural women have gen- oping countries in Latin America (Bongaarts 2014) erally had higher postpartum infecundity and mar- andronment. also a This phenomenon is consistent witnessed with findings in the in French other develfertil- riage fertility reduction effect than urban areas. The fertility inhibition effect of the selected socioeconom- suggest empowerment of women might be necessary ic variables generally increased, although they were throughity revolution female (Pavlík education and Hampl and access1975). toThese resources. results The study has a number of strengths. The study from other researches in Zambia (Chola and Michelo used a large, nationally representative popula- fluctuating. This corresponds with what emerged tion-based sample conducted over 30 years. The data (Alazbih, Tewabe and Demisse 2017) and sub-Sahara has a high response rate above 90%, standardized Africa2016), (Finlay,Uganda Mejia-Guevara (Rutaremwa et al. and 2015)Akachi and 2018). Ethiopia This surveys as enabling comparisons across countries could be attributed to the effects that marriage and and periods. The decomposition of proximate deter- wealth have on fertility. minants was done in order to understand sources of The effect of contraception was positively corre- fertility changes over time. lated with regard to education, wealth and residence. The study also had a weakness. The index of abor- Furthermore, contraceptive fertility reduction effect tion was taken as one throughout the analysis, i.e. increased with time across all socioeconomic groups (rich or poor, educated or not, urban or rural). These fertility inhibition effect on fertility due to lack of data. Itinduced is possible abortion that was excluding assumed abortion to have noin thesignificant model that contraceptive inhibition effect of fertility from could have affected the estimation of total fecundity. biologicalresults are maximum consistent is with greater other among findings high that socioec show- Furthermore, studies have shown that abortion rates onomic groups than lower socioeconomic groups; in in sub-Saharan Africa are growing rapidly (Alazbih, - Tewabe and Demisse 2017; Remez, Woog and Mhloyi leni 2017), Ethiopia (Alazbih, Tewabe and Demisse 2014). Another limitation of the data used is that it Uganda2017) and (Rutaremwa Zambia (Chola et al. 2015),and Michelo Namibia 2016). (Palamu This failed to include reproductive data of males. Moreo- could imply that women empowerment (access to ver, the surveys collected retrospective data on wom- education especially tertiary, female employment, en’s birth history. It is possible that such respondents poverty alleviation) could be powerful tools for fer- might suffer from recall bias which might affect the tility decline. accuracy and validity of the data. Thus predicted TFR will normally differ from the observed TFR because of contraception fertility inhibition across all socioeco- underreporting of births; misreporting of behaviours An interesting finding is a decrease in the effect of measured by the indices or omission of proximate fac- not revealed when looking contraceptive inhibition tors that help determine fertility levels in the popula- effectnomic withoutgroups in background 2010. Although variables. such aNonetheless, finding was tion under study. 192 Collet Muza

5. Conclusion Chesnais, J. (1992): The demographic transition: Stages, patterns, and economic implications. Clarendon Press. In this paper, we applied the Bongaarts model to Chitereka, J., Nduna, B. (2010): Determinants of unmet need assess and compare changes in the relative impor- for family planning in Zimbabwe. Harare: Zimbabwe tance of proximate determinants of fertility for six National Family Planning Council and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. ZDHSs conducted in Zimbabwe. The results indicate Chola, M., Michelo, C. (2016): Proximate determinants that the fertility inhibition effects of contraception of fertility in Zambia: Analysis of the 2007 Zambia are the most important than the inhibition effects of Demographic and Health Survey. International marriage, and postpartum infecundability in Zimba- Journal of Population Research 2016, https:// bwe. Moreover, the results show that the contracep- doi.org/10.1155/2016/5236351. tive patterns vary positively with education, wealth Coale, A. J. (1973): The demographic transition quintiles and areas of residence. There was a gradual reconsidered. Paper presented at the Congres erosion of post-partum infecundability through the analysis period and of marriage after 1999. It is plau- Davis, K., Blake, J. (1956): Social structure and fertility: sible that the fertility stalling could have been caused AnDe l’IUSSP,analytic 1, framework. 53–72. Economic Development and by the cumulative effects of marriage and postpartum - /10.1086/449714. Dyson,Cultural T. (2013): Change Population 4(3), 211–235, and development: https://doi.org The tant policy implications. The strengthening of fertility demographic transition Zed Books Ltd. inhibitioninfecundability. effects The of contraception,findings of this latestudy marriage, have impor and prolonged breastfeeding must be promoted. There is in total fertility rates and the proximate determinants a need to research further on proximate determinants Finlay,of fertility J. E., Mejía-Guevara, in 21 sub-Saharan I., Akachi, African Y. (2018): countries. Inequality of fertility according to age groups as such research PloS One 13(9), e0203344, https://doi.org/10.1371 - /journal.pone.0203344. tions of fertility. Garenne, M. (2013): Situations of fertility stall in sub- can illuminate the age-specific reproductive contribu Saharan Africa. African Population Studies 23(2), https://doi.org/10.11564/23-2-319. References Goujon, A., Lutz, W., Samir, K. (2015): Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive Alazbih, N. M., Tewabe, G. N., Demissie, T. D. (2017): Contraception and fertility transition in AMHARA https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2015.33.47. national, regional state of Ethiopia: An application of Gould,overview. W. T. (2015): Demographic Population Research and development. 33, 1281–1296, Bongaarts’ model. Fertility Research and Practice 3(1), Routledge, New York, USA. 12, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40738-017-0039-8. Guilkey, D. K., Jayne, S. (1997): Fertility transition in Birdsall, N., Sinding, S. W. (2001): How and why population Zimbabwe: Determinants of contraceptive use and

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Issues in Brief (Alan Guttmacher Institute) 3(3), 1–8. 194 Original Article

Investigating the geotouristic risks of spa springs with emphasis on natural and human dangers in the study area between Sarein and Ardebil in the northwest of Iran Mehdi Feyzolahpour*, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu

Department of Geography, University of Zanjan, Iran * Coresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT Geotourism and geoparks provide good opportunities for rural development and reduce unemployment and migration. It attracts local communities for employment in geoparks and tourism marketing in the form of investments in ecotourism, rural tourism and health geotourism. Geotourism is closely related to the geology of treatment. One of these is the spa spring that has the therapeutic potential and plays a significant role in attracting domestic and foreign tourists. For this purpose the status of 11 hot springs in the geographical range between Ardabil city and Sarein city has been investigated in terms of parameters such as discharge, temperature, pH and anions and cations. However, this geographical area also has a number of natural and human hazards the most important of which is the occurrence of killing earthquakes. The earthquake of February 28, 1997 killed nearly 1000 people and destroyed many villages. The presence of spa springs on or near the faults and the establishment of recreational facilities in the area have threatened investment in the area. In this regard the status of clay, silt and sand percentage, Liquefaction Limit and Plasticity PI index in the study area were studied. It was observed that if in clay formations the amount of dough is about 40 to 50 percent and soil moisture reaches 25 to 35 percent there is a possibility of demolition of buildings and asphalt. According to the results of soil physics analysis, Sarein city is susceptible to soil infiltration and liquefaction during earthquake. In the final section the sanitary condition of the pools was investigated in terms of the possibility of dermatophyte fungi and 284 samples were examined. It was observed that due to the complete disinfection of pools with chlorine no dermatophytes were observed.

KEYWORDS spa springs; earthquake; dermatophytes; geotourism; Sarein tourist area

Received: 11 May 2018 Accepted: 19 August 2019 Published online: 12 December 2019

Feyzolahpour, M., Einali, J., Gasemlu, H. (2019): Investigating the geotouristic risks of spa springs with emphasis on natural and human dangers in the study area between Sarein and Ardebil in the northwest of Iran. AUC Geographica 54(2), 194–206 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.17

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 195

1. Introduction have been done to develop ecotourism development strategies Johansen and Williams have been studying The growing population of the world especially in ecotourism development in a national South African developing countries, economic poverty and the low wetland park (Johansen and Williams 2008). level of national income of the countries has caused In recent years researchers have dealt with many the population of these countries to be in a state of different aspects of ecotourism including Weaver and economic strain. In examining the causes of these Lawton’s article on ecological, economic, cultural and countries’ retardation it was found out that despite social effects of ecotourism and methods of quality the availability of natural resources and the of poten- control as well as ethics in it (Weaver and Lawton tial income sources they have accepted poverty and 2007). Jaafar and Maideen also study ecotourism deprivation and in fact low levels of knowledge and products and services provided in four islands in technology and lack of awareness of how to exploit Malaysia and issues related to the economic sustain- existing potential has increased the problems. One of ability of small and medium-sized huts in these areas the sources that can greatly increase revenues in the (Jaafar and Maideen 2012). Ecotourism encompass- current era and by increasing GDP increase income es a wide range of nature-based tourism activities. on the international scene is the tourism industry, Examples include visiting national parks and pro- especially ecotourism which is a good source of rev- tected areas, pristine natural areas, watching birds, enue for most of the countries in the world. So now circulating in natural environments, hiking, moun- the income from tourism and ecotourism in countries tain climbing, visiting natural caves, studying plants like France, Spain, China and Germany is more than and animals and ecological exploitation. This part of the national income in some of the underdeveloped ecotourism is the interface between ecotourism and countries. On the other hand the tourism industry geotourism. In 1992 at the United Nations Conference will have problems for each region without careful on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in planning and attention to ecological, local, cultural command 21 geotourism was referred to and today and social capabilities. In fact, the planned and per- is recognized as an appropriate tool for sustainable fect tourism system will advance to the proper use of development. Undoubtedly the importance of geot- the environment and various environmental, cultural, ourism is to emphasize a kind of holistic management historical and similar resources in the region (Edgell perspective in areas such as the history of geological phenomena, ecosystems, land use, natural tourism planning for the sustainable use of tourism resourc- and environmental education and sustainability (Kim eset al. especially 2008). And ecotourism. this shows Among the position many studies of strategic that

et al. 2008). As a new option geotourism emphasizes

Fig. 1 Location of the study area in terms of location of hot springs. 196 Mehdi Feyzolahpour, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu not only all human and natural characteristics but also - the function of each location. This form of tourism can genic movements such as Caledonian and Hercynian play an important role in national development and beforeperiods the much Mesozoic of Iran was era influencedsuch as Laramide by Paleozoic and oro the - Cenozoic period such Pyrenean, Savian and Pasade- ning based on the recognition of opportunities and nian which resulted in the rise of Iran. These geolog- diversificationlimitations of geotourism.of the regional Geotourism economy through is a form plan of ical movements have caused volcanic activity in the cultural and environmental tourism that can be devel- third period especially during the Eocene period and oped in the region with important geological works during the Quaternary period. This has led to the for- and is based on the preservation and expansion of mation and activation of volcanoes in Iran. In some the geological heritage that has enjoyed great growth parts of the country karst and calcareous structures in the world. It is expected that by the next decades were established which resulted in the distribution of the number of nature travellers which now accounts various caves in Iran. Glacial forms formed during the for 7 percent of the total number of travellers in the Pleistocene can be found in the northern, northwest- world will reach more than 20 percent. In 1977 in the ern and western parts of Iran. UNESCO Earth Sciences Department the geopark pro- One of the issues that is encountered in the tourist attractions especially geotourism is the topic of hot and Piacente (1993) refer to geomorphology as geo- springs which have been scattered in different parts morphicgram was assets officially in their launched research. (Zouros Carton 2004). (1994) Panizza has of Iran and have been considered for its therapeutic studied geomorphology and geomorphologic processes that refer to geomorphologic locations as geo- of good quality Iran can be one of the hotspots for morphologic commodities. Hooke (1994) developed touristefficacy. withWith naturalmore than landscapes 113 mineral and water therapeutic springs strategies to maintain and sustain the dynamics of applications but practically did not succeed in doing geomorphologic sites. Grandgirard (1997) worked on so. Investigation and recognition of mineral waters in the site conservation and geomorphology in his Ph.D. Iran began in the second half of the 19th century by thesis and referred to the geosites as geosciences in his research. tested on a number of mineral springs and their prop- As a region located in the desert and mountainous foreign tourists and foreign scientific delegations and belt, Iran has special geological and geomorphological the north east of Tehran. In 1949 according to a plan conditions. On the other hand, in different geological byerties. the InPlan 1928 and the Budget first mineral Organization spring thewas study used ofin

Fig. 2 Topography of the studied area. Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 197 the mineral waters of Mahallat and Ardebil was car- 2. The study region ried out. Determination of the mineral properties of Iran’s mineral waters was initiated in 1961 by a team Sarein Tourist City is located in the south-east of the of hydrology from the Faculty of Pharmacy at the Uni- versity of Tehran and continued until 1969 in which The western part of the city is located at higher alti- the physical, chemical and microbiological properties tudesfamous than volcanic other heights areas ofdue Sabalan to its (4811 exposure m) (Fig. 1). to the Sabalan slopes. The eastern part of the city is locat- noting that these studies have been ongoing and have ed in a deeper region and hot springs are located of many mineral springs were identified. It is worth especially in this area. The formation of Sarein city about 350 mineral water springs in 40 regions of Iran. is completely in line with the natural environmental resulted in the identification and investigation of- phenomenon. peutic uses of springs on the one hand and the exist- The presence of highlands in the northwest and the enceConsidering of hundreds the of scientific hot mineral evidence springs of inthe the thera geo- alluvial valley in the east and faults in the city limits graphical range of Iran on the other hand it is possible and its edges as well as the passage of the river from the city center completely affected the city’s geo- industry in addition to the goals of spending leisure morphology. The peripheral lands of Sarein city are timeto plan using and health manage applications. efficiently within the tourism devoted to agricultural lands surrounded by pastures. The city of Sarein has become a geotouristic attrac- Wasteland of about 84.5 hectares in the city of Sare- tion due to the presence of hot springs. The presence in until 2005 accounting for 34.7% of the continuous of these conditions has attracted a lot of investment urban texture has recently reached about 60.8 hectares. Considering the rapid development of the city it and negative effects. Therefore, in this research the is expected that in the not-so-distant future of Sarein upcomingin the city risks and in has the produced development significant of the city positive and there will be plenty of uneven topographic levels at tourist centers were examined. Due to the earthquake the surface of the Sabalan range. The general slope of in the city of Sarein, the dispersion of faults in the area the city of Sarein is in accordance with the state of the and their relationship with recreational units was dis- northwestern and southwest land. cussed. In the biological survey the health status and The city is located at variable topographic levels pathogenicity of the hot springs pools are addressed. between the 1640 m high and 1740 m elevation with The probable germs in these pools were examined. an area of 430.36 hectares in the eastern slopes of the

Fig. 3 Slope values of the study area. 198 Mehdi Feyzolahpour, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu

Fig. 4 Slope direction of the study area.

Sabalan Highlands. Therefore, the future expansion of (the Caspian Sea). In the very short distances there the city to the east and north will be associated with are two types of seaside and mountainous climates many hydro-geomorphological problems because in the which has caused 3 outlooks of the sea, forests and mountains. In terms of natural landscape and natural terms of the gradient and intensity of the earth’s rough- morphology it is comparable to that of Switzerland. ness.northern Parts part of the the topographic north, northeastern condition is intensified and south in- The importance of tourism in this area compared to west of the city are developing at steep slopes which the tourist areas of the world can be better under- are not suitable for physical development of the city. stood when we consider that in one day it is possible The tourist attractions of the studied area are to visit and use the tourist attractions and ecotourism important in comparison with tourist attractions in features such as mineral water springs, ski resort, vol- the world from a number of points. This study area is located in the southwest of the world’s largest lake 2011). canic views, forest and mountain views (Estelaji et al.

Tab. 1 Physical and chemical status of the springs.

Title of springs Discharge (m/s) Water Temperature in °C PH Anion Cation

Eyes-Water Spa Spring 0.2 21 5.2 HCO3 Ca

Hot springs of Hemmat Ardebil Coffee House 2 40.5 9 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca

Artemis Momtaz Coffee House hot springe 2 47 6.1 HCO3, Cl Na

Five Sisters Springe (Besh Bajjilar) Ardebil 3 35 5.9 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca Seven Blocks Spring 2 20 5.3 SO Ca

Boshli Spring 2 49 6.9 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca

Ghinarech spring 4 65 6.1 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca

Isti Su Spring 1.5 42 5.7 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca

Ilanjigh Spring 1 49 6.2 HCO3 K, Na, Ca

Springe Dip Siz Gol 2 30 6.3 HCO3 Na, Ca

Saghezchi Spring 1 39 5.8 HCO3, Cl Na, Ca Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 199

One of the existing capacities in the Sarein geot- a relationship between the dispersion of fungi and ouristic zone is the existence of many hot and mineral bacteria in spas. In this regard, the dermatophyte was highly considered. (2012). (Table 1) Due to the therapeutic capability andwater geotouristic springs in attractionsthis area, described some of these by Rashidi hot springs et al. can be considered as an international pole. 4. Results

4.1 Natural hazards in the geotouristic region 3. Methodology of Sarein city The current range of the Sarein city considering the The two issues of natural hazards such as earth- slope is composed of rocks, clay, marl and igneous quakes, and the health and biological hazards were projectiles. The depth of the soils in the city’s bound- examined in the analysis of the hazards in this region. aries and its margins extend from the semi-deep ero- The geology of Sarein should be considered to ana- sion of coarse grains in the northwestern part of the lyze natural hazards by emphasizing on the earth- city to relatively deep gravel in its low-slope lands in quake. The surface formations of the region were the south and south-east of the valley. In the current - headquarters of the city not only two faults are dis- illary ascent of water. The soil liquefaction limit was tinguishable from the east to the west and from the determinedfirst examined in soilin terms formations of soil thicknessto explore and the the vulner cap- north to the south but the Sabalan semi-volcanic vol- ability to earthquake. Results of the study conducted canoes (in the tectonic active hydrothermal stage) by Abedini (2013) were used to meet this objective. are located in the east. Surface formation in the area showed that the soils of low-gradient areas (range sampling three areas of Sarein. Thus, the percentage ofThe clay, fluidity sand, limit silt, liquefactionin formations limit was and determined plasticity byPI In terms of thickness the soils of the eastern and index were measured using the granulometric results southeastern3–5%) were of part heavy of the texture city are (51.45% semi-deep clay and texture). deep. (Abedini 2013). Water climbing especially freezing climb upward Also, the status of formations of the area in terms damages roads and pavements in Sarein city as well of proximity to the Sabalan volcano was studied to as the foundation of structures. Soils that are capable determine the resistance or instability of the area in of expansion are swollen or as a result of freezing and earthquakes. In addition to the above cases, it was necessary to identify the faults and their positions in surfaces of the asphalt are swelling. Nevertheless, the the region. Therefore, the position of the faults from cityincreasing boundaries volume are the located floor onof thethe buildingpath to the and fault the Sarein was determined. The conditions of the town valley and on relatively deep-sea alluvial deposits. before and after the severe earthquake on February 28, 1997 were considered. In all these stages, the con- permeating waters design issues and robust materials ditions of the hot springs were examined according willTherefore, arised. in Deepening this fine-grained of the groundform with and surface the use and of to these parameters. The risks related to the biologi- robust anti-earthquake materials for large structures and maintaining the water level with the principles in the second stage, Therefore, the fungal infections of drainage is necessary. Due to the high ductility pat- cal agents in the hot springs of Sarein were identified (2007) were used in relation to fungal infections. 284 for swelling of structures in the region is mostly mod- sampleswere emphasized. were collected The resultsfrom 11 of hot Seyedmousavi spring springs et al. to eratetern in to fine-grained higher-moderate urban (Table formations 2). The the successive potential - rise of moisture levels in the wet seasons of the year find the type of microbes. Samples of fungi and bac teria were identified in them. It was tried to create will lead to inflation and fluidization in the surface Tab. 2 Location of harvesting samples, granulometric results for determination of tissue texture and ductile tolerance (Abedini 2013).

Plasticity PI index Liquefaction Limit Percent of Silt Percent of Sand Percent of Clay Sample collection site

33.32 35.30 26.40 30.30 43.00 South entrance Eastern regions alonge 42.23 38.22 25.32 22.25 51.45 the valley of the city limits 34.60 31.22 23.50 43.42 34.35 North slopes

Tab. 3 Ductility Symbol and Potential of Inflation (Abedini 2013).

Liquefaction Limit 0–10 10–20 20–35 More than 35

Plasticity PI index Little Average A lot Too much 200 Mehdi Feyzolahpour, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu

is a funnel-shaped hollow. In the summertime as a result of melting of the snow a lake is formed inside this slope.

covers a total surface of 1200 square kilometers. Sabalan’sSabalan early lava activities flows outwere in related several to Eocene. stages andBut its current cones are due to the subsequent steps in the Pliocene and Quaternary respectively. Sabalan caldera appears to have been created in the second phase of activity in Pliocene. One of the most noticeable side effects associated with magmatic activity is

pine forests. These drains result from the combina- tionthe large of volcanic spread ashof mudflows with melting in Sabalan’s water in northern the cold Fig. 5 A view of a lake located on the Kaldera Mountain period. Apparently in Würm glaciation and during of the volcano Sabalan. the formation of glacial masses in Sabalan its explo- sive activity was also started. Volcanic activity has melt the glaciers and the water from the melting ice is also smeared with volcanic ash and brought them will destroy the base of the buildings. In places where discontinuousformations of materialsfine-grained can clay saturate and within the water long they run - surfaceinto mudflowers. of the plains These leading masses to Meshkinshahr eventually moved and in, high rainfall, high relative humidity and the num- Ardabil.along mud Conglomerates, floods along the lahar, valleys tuffs and and pushed volcanic to gray the canber ofcreate freezing fluidity. days In (145 gradient days and per hillingyear) the area presence of Sare formations located in the north and east of Sarein city of deep and fairly deep surface formations makes it are also related to the early Quaternary. Lithologically very probable that soil leakage occurs during earth- these formations are mostly resistant to semi-resist- quake. An earthquake with a magnitude of 5 is a lim- ant. Part of the Sarein area is formed by the material iting threshold for soil leakage and lateral expansion of the alluvial terraces that extends almost in the mar- of soil formations and in an earthquake with a mag- gins of the western and southwest streams of Sarein nitude 6.5 causes mass movement, avalanches and and the villages of this area. severe earth avalanches. Abedini (2013) declares the The residential areas of the study area are often located on these formations. The thickness of this unit sample areas in Sarein as follows: is more than 400 meters and spread from Sarein to fluidIn levelclay formationsof the texture if the of the amount formations of dough in the is aboutthree the south and south-east of the region. Lithologically 40 to 50 percent and the soil moisture content reaches 25 to 35 percent it is possible to destroy the building Therefore these structures are risky when earth- and the asphalt. According to the results of soil phys- these formations are insufficient and semi-resistant. ics analysis Sarein city is susceptible to soil swelling of these steep slopes will be the occurrence of slip and creepquakes on occur. soft and The loose most tuffs significant in the Sarin potential area. The hazard slip the lithological and tectonic conditions of the area on steep slopes causes a heterogeneous alignment or shouldand fluidization also be investigated.during earthquake. The lithological In the meantime, resist- movement of the pillars and separation of the build- ance of geological and surface formations depends ing from the ground. Liquefaction in saturated sandy on the type, shape, color, manner of mineralization, soils leads to tilting and collapsing of buildings. moisture percentage, weathering and tectonization. In total the margin area of Sabalan volcanoes and A wide area of the region consists of periodic layers Ardabil area in northwest of Iran have been reported of green tuff, marl and freshwater lime cobblestone with high potential of seismicity. Situated in the south- and lava stone. In the northern and northeastern ern volcanic slopes of Sabalan it has also transformed parts of villages and volcanic villages this formation it into a city with a potential earthquake hazard. Con- consists of Andesi stone, basalt and trachy basalt. sidering the seismic state of Iran and the vulnerability Lithologically these formations are mostly semi-re- of cities to earthquakes one of the approaches taken sistant formations. The major geological phenome- by urban planners to deal with this phenomenon is non in this area is the Mount Sabalan volcano. It is the addressing the issue of urban immunization and pre- result of volcanic activity of the central type and its ventative measures to reduce the damage caused by eruption mechanism is similar to the Italian Strom- the earthquake. In terms of fault structure, we can boli volcano. Volcanic activity of the upper Sabalan is classify Sarein’s range into three major faults: based on volcanic and sedimentary bases of Eocene The Balikhlichay fault is about 70 km from the with an average altitude of 2700 m. The length of this northern lake of Ardebil and is covered by the south- volcanic mass is about 60 km and its width are about ern Quaternary alluvium in the north-eastern plain 45 km. The main crankcase of this volcanic mountain of Ardebil and continues to Astara. One of the main Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 201

Fig. 6 Geological map of the study area with emphasis on the location of springs and faults. signs of neo-terrestrial activity is the displacement of Miocene sediments and tilting of the Quaternary faults including Barghoosh in the western part of alluvium. A lot of spa springs run from the site of this ArdebilArdebil highlands, province Dasht is located Moghan on fault five in earthquake Parsabad, active fault. The Alvares fault is 15 kilometers long Ardabil fault along the northeast to the northwest of with a northwest process extending south-east of the the province, Masooleh fault in the southeastern part village of Alvares to Caldera in Sabalan. An impor- of Khalkhal and Rudbar fault in Astara in Namin area. tant part of the Darwish river runs along this fault. On February 28 1997 an earthquake of 6.1 magnitudes Villadera fault begins with the northern and southern occurred at a depth of 15 km. The number of people trend of the village of Sardabeh (north of Sarein city). killed was about 965 and the number of injured was A branch of it along the primary route is divided into estimated at 2600. In this earthquake about 36 000 two parts in the north of the city of Sarein; one branch people became homeless. Studies in the area indicate of which passes through the city of Sarein and is again that the highest severity of the earthquake is located divided into two branches in the commercial area of in southeastern Sabalan and the greatest damage was the city. One branch ends in the village of Wind Kala- reported in villages Golestan and Shiran. The magnitude of the high aftershocks occurred a few days after the city. Several spa springs have been formed along the main shake causing more damages and the col- thekhoran Sarein and fault.the other The branch location ends of aboutthe city 3–4 of km Sarein from lapse of buildings that damaged in the main shock and despite its adjacent active faults and faults in the city are highly threatened by tectonic and seismicity. Any observations after the earthquake showed that gra- displacement of these faults will result in earthquakes caused significant damages to the city of Sarein. Field with destruction and damage to the city of Sarein. On effect on the severity of degradation. In the region the other hand with the onset of the earthquake the dient thickness and sediment type had a significant likelihood of blockage of hot water will be very high. By changing the direction of the springs practically the landslideearthquake. phenomenon In the event has of not an beenearthquake significantly rural some water treatments will be closed and the char- housesinfluenced were by mostly the slope made due of to inadequate the low slope material during of acteristics of the city’s tourist performance will be poor quality mud. Such buildings have been complete- changed. ly destroyed in areas close to the earthquake site and 202 Mehdi Feyzolahpour, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu

Fig. 7 Map of earthquake occurrence and location of springs in the studied area.

Fig. 8 An overview of the earthquake that occurred in 1997 in Sarein. Fig. 9 An overview of the earthquake that occurred in 1997 in Sarein.

have been found to be deep-seated cracking in the dis- 1997 earthquake the city of Sarein has grown rapidly tant regions and their local downturns. In most of the due to its natural attractions and has become one of urban residential houses and some of the rural build- the attractions of the Middle East and has witnessed ings except brick buildings the technical notes of the rapid development. In this period mountaineering earthquake code were observed. The damage to such camps, ski resorts, spa pools and cable cars have been buildings has been less than that of mud-made hous- developed. es. A few brick buildings were also found in nearby Another factor that threatens the city of Serein is areas of the earthquake which due to non-observance the downfall of the earth. Earth subsidence is exac- of some technical points only suffered minor damage. erbated in both cases naturally and sometimes also The one that increased the depth of the disaster and by the interference of humans on the earth and is an increased the death toll was a severe snowfall at night environmental hazard for urban construction. The of the earthquake and wolf attacks on the injured. center of the city is located from east to the west par-

human damages within 20 years after the February 28, of towers and modern hotels are rapidly expanding In spite of the severe earthquake and significant allel to the fault valley. Today more than 10 to 15 floors Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 203

Fig. 10 Growth and development of the city of Sarein after Fig. 11 Another view of construction in the city of Sarein after the earthquake of February 28, 1997. It is clearly seen in the image the 1997 earthquake. the Sabalan volcano that dominates the city and its construction. in the active tectonic zone. The core of the city is the - location of fault division. In addition, the main stream sion of physical space the city occupied more lands along the fault line has been adapted. The site of the andflat topographicencountered lands many but hydro gradually geomorphological with the expan bot- buried volcanic geological layers underneath the allu- tlenecks. Considering the above-mentioned cases in vial Quaternary alluvial deposits has created basis the event of an earthquake exceeding 5.5 magnitude for formation of hot springs in the city. In the 1997 the city will suffer great damage Ardabil earthquake by breaking part of the igneous section of the infrastructure hot water erupted in the 4.2 Analysis of hazards associated with biological middle of the city at an altitude of about 12 meters. It agents in Sarein hot water springs is expected that some earthquakes will dry up during Given the increasing progress of human knowledge in earthquake due to physicochemical reactions within controlling and eradicating fungal diseases including the earth or there may be created several hot water dermatophytosis in humans, the statistics still indi- springs in the areas adjacent to them. So far after cate that the disease is one of the most important the start of huge and heavy construction the city of health and therapeutic issues in the world and in Iran. Sarein has not experienced a severe earthquake. An Human fungal infections have increased considerably examination of all geological issues tectonics and hot in recent years, one of the common causes of which is water in the region indicates the instability of urban the increased exposure of people to the environment infrastructure. and public places infected with the transmission of According to Abedini (2013) most hot springs disease to humans. The use of public places such as come out of the place and also adjacent places to - faults. The existence of faults has led to the tecton- cial and cutaneous fungal infections spread to humans ic instability of the city lands. On the other hand the becausehot water they pools have is aone long of lifethe ofways up toin 6which months superfi (Rip- displacement of faults is one of the important factors pon 1988). in the gradual downsizing of the city on the path to Considering that to produce fungal skin disease the fault valley. The results of the sampling conducted other than the presence of pathogens in the environ- by Abedini (2013) indicate a high percentage of clay ment other factors such as ambient temperature, rel- (46%) silt (32%) and sand (25%). Therefore high ative humidity, age, occupation, living conditions and presence of clay, high topographic slope and fault non-compliance with health standards are important activity during earthquake could be risky. The higher for the development of fungal skin diseases (Rippon the percentage of clay in the formations, the higher 1988) many researches and studies have been accom- - plished on the dermatophyte contamination in the tinuous wetting of structures of foundation, chemical environments and public places and their role in the thedegradation, amount of dissolution, inflation, elasticity decrease and of internalfecundity. resist Con- transmission of the disease and how to prevent them ance of materials and increase of shear stress cause in the world and in Iran. bending, cracking the foundation and even falling In the study of pollutants in the southern bar- it. Topographic and geological slopes with the high racks of the south of the country from 374 samples groundwater and hydrothermal velocities and trap- 90 cases (24.06%) of dermatophytes were isolated ping characteristics especially in low slopes and pits from the equipment and environment of the patients like the middle of the city play an important role in the risk-taking of structures. In the beginning the They prove dermatophytes in sampling 7 bathrooms position of the city of Sarein was formed in relatively and 2 types of dermatophytes from one patient.

(63.63%) out of 11 baths (Emami et al. 1974). 204 Mehdi Feyzolahpour, Jamshid Einali, Hassan Gasemlu

Tab. 4 Service and operation status of hot water pools in Sarein tourist city in the summer of 2005 (Seyedmousavi et al. 2007).

Pool status Shower Dressing Lending Service type situation room Pool number Indoor Private Outdoors Hat suit Half private Half Solo Disinfection Share Towel Mixed Governmental Slippers Feminine Masculine Swimming Swimming It does not not does It have to exist to have There must be must There

Pool No. 1 – – * – – – – – – – * – * * * * – Pool No. 2 – – * – – – – – – – * – * * – – * Pool No. 3 – – * – * * – – – * – * – * – * – Pool No. 4 – – * – * * – – – * – * – * * – – Pool No. 5 – – * * – – – – – * – – – * – – – Pool No. 6 – – – * – – – – – * – – – * – – * Pool No. 7 – – * – * – – – – – * – – * – – * Pool No. 8 – – * * – – – – – – * – – * – – * Pool No. 9 – – * – * – – – – – * – – * – – * Pool No. 10 – – * * – – – – – – * – – * – – – Pool No. 11 – – * – * * – – – * – – – * – – –

Tab. 5 Frequency distribution of fungi isolated from hot water pools of Sarein tourist city in summer 2005 according to type of pool (Seyedmousavi et al. 2007).

Pool number Number of Title of Fungi Percentage 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 samples Aspergillus fumigatus 1 5 4 11 7 3 4 2 2 2 3 44 22.79 Aspergillus flavus – – 6 6 4 2 4 3 1 2 2 30 15.54 Aspergillus niger 2 3 2 5 5 4 3 1 3 2 – 30 15.54 SP penicillium 1 1 4 7 1 – 2 2 3 1 6 28 14.50 Mucor – 1 2 1 1 – 2 – – – 1 8 4.14 Fusarium Oxysporum – – 1 1 1 – 1 – 1 1 2 8 4.14 Aspergillus – – 1 – 1 1 – – 1 – – 5 2.59 Geotrichum 1 – 3 1 – – – – – – – 5 2.59 Alternaria – – – – – – – 1 – 1 – 4 2.07 Candida (fungus) 2 – 2 – – – – – – – – 4 2.07 Scopulariopsis – – 1 – – – – 1 – 1 – 3 1.55 Unknown – – – – 2 – – – – – – 3 1.55 Mycelia sterilia – 1 – 1 – – – – – – – 2 1.03 Rhizopus 1 – – 1 – – – 1 – – – 2 1.03 Trichosporon – – 1 – – – – – 1 – – 2 1.03 Acremonium – – – – – – – – – 1 1 2 1.03 Curvularia – – – – 1 1 – – – – – 2 1.03 Trichotecium – 1 – – – – – – 1 – – 2 1.03 Pseudoallescheria boydii – – – – – – – – – – 2 2 1.03 Chysosporium – – 1 – – – – – – – – 1 0.51 Ulocladium – – – – – – – – – – 1 1 0.51 Sepedonium – – – – – – – – – – 1 1 0.51 Bipolaris – – – – 1 – – – – – – 1 0.51 Paecilomyces – – – – – – – 1 – – – 1 0.51 Stemphylum – – – – – – – – – – 1 1 0.51 Sreptomycin – – 1 – – – – – – – – 1 0.51 Total 8 12 29 36 24 11 16 12 13 11 21 193 100 Geotouristic risks of spa springs in Iran 205

Since there has not been any study on the status segment was also divided into two sections of the of fungal growth in hot water pools in Sarein tourist hazards associated with the earthquake and the risks town, therefore in this section the study of epidemiol- associated with the disease outbreak. Regarding the - potential of spa springs about 11 hot springs were ination and their sources, determination of dominant selected and features such as discharge temperature ogy of fungal diseases identification of fungal contam pH and anion and cation values were extracted in disease and how to prevent them in hot water pools each source separately. offungal Sarein species, tourist identification city are discussed. of ways to transmit the In the context of natural hazards an analysis of the - earthquakes in the area especially the earthquake of ples were taken at different points in the Sarein Hot February 28, 1997 was carried out and accordingly SpringsIn a study Pools. by In Seyedmousavi this study 284 et al. specimens (2007) were284 sam col- it was necessary to draw geological maps, topogra- lected from different parts of the pools 193 fungal phy slope and direction of gradient and earthquake plates (67.95%) and 43 positive plates (15.14%) and centers mentioning the location of the spa springs. none of the 48 plates (16.9%) were extracted. Asper- Investigations showed that there was no reported gillus fumigatus was isolated with 44 positive plates earthquake occurring on this date due to the low (22.79%) Aspergillus feltus and Aspergillus spp. with slope of the occurrence area such as landslide or rock 30 positive plates (15.54%) and penicillium with 28 falls but due to the straw structure of buildings, high positive plates (14.50%) the most abundant fungi. human casualties were observed. One of the most In this study no dermatophyte fungi nor any real problematic measures in this area is the development dimorphic pathogens were isolated from carpet and of construction towards the high slopes in the moun- water samples. One of the factors of the absence of tain range of Sabalan. human dermatophytes in the pools examined in this study is the presence of chlorine in the pool water related to biological factors in the pools of Sareen spa and the spread of this water around the pool because springsIn the were final analyzed. section ofTo the this study end with the riskthe emphafactors- there are more commuted and the contact of the legs sis on research by Seyedmousavi and colleagues and body of swimmers in this place has been more. (2007) of 284 samples no dermatophytic fungi were On the other hand, given that the amount of chlorine extracted from water and spa pools. The main reason for this is the complete disinfection of pools by chlo- comment because in talking to the authorities respon- rine. So the pools used by tourists do not contain any siblein most for pools these is poolsnot standard they often one candid notnot specifically know the dermatophytes. exact amount of chlorine intake and expressed their According to the above-mentioned items it can be dependence on the number of swimmers and water accurately stated that the recreational and tourist pollution and most of the pools were discharged every area of Sarein has been high in terms of geo-tourism 24 hours and disinfected with perchlorin. Therefore, it is likely that another reason for the lack of derma- in the Sarein area. tophyte agents in the pools is that the pool managers capabilities and has resulted in economic flourishing as well as the health authorities in the hot water pools of the Sarein tourist town pay more attention to the cleaning and control of the pools. References According to the results of this study it can be stat- Abedini, M. 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Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network Mike G. Winter 1, 2, *, David Peeling3, Derek Palmer 4, James Peeling3

1 Winter Associates, Kirknewton, Midlothian, U.K. formerly Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Edinburgh, U.K. 2 University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, U.K. 3 Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Wokingham, U.K. 4 Formerly Transport Research Laboratory (TRL), Wokingham, U.K., now Independent Transport Economist, U.K. * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT Even in the absence of serious injuries and fatalities, landslide and flood events can have significant socio-economic impacts. These include the severance of access to and from relatively remote communities for services and markets for goods; employment, health and educational opportunities; and social activities. The economic impacts can be classified as: direct economic impacts, direct consequential economic impacts, and indirect consequential economic impacts. In addition, the vulnerability shadow cast can be extensive, and its geographical extent can be determined by the transport network rather than the relatively small footprint of the event itself. Using a number of debris flow events and a flood event in Scotland this paper places values on the economic impacts of landslides and floods. It also demonstrates the widespread impact of the events by means of the vulnerability shadow that is cast.

KEYWORDS landslides; floods; hazard; risk; economic; social

Received: 17 May 2019 Accepted: 15 October 2019 Published online: 18 November 2019

Winter, M. G., Peeling, D., Palmer, D., Peeling, J. (2019): Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network. AUC Geographica 54(2), 207–220 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.18

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). 208 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

1. Introduction activities, in the form of both management and mitigation and. a study was commissioned to assess and make recommendations on potential landslide reme- average rainfall substantially in excess of the norm diation actions at the Rest and be Thankful site (Anon. Aoccurred series ofin Scotland debris flows in August associated 2004. withThe resulting monthly 2013a; Winter, Corby 2012). landslides affected important parts of the trunk (stra- The rainfall-induced landslides occur in thin tegic) road network, linking both cities and smaller, deposits of weathering products and other debris remote communities. Notable events occurred (Fig- overlying rock that frequently dips out of the slopes ure 1) at the A83 between Glen Kinglas and north which may be at angles of up to around 36°. Detailed of Cairndow (9 August), the A9 north of Dunkeld 2006), as are approaches to hazard and risk assess- While there were no major injuries, 57 people had mentdescriptions (Winter ofet al. events 2005, are 2009, available 2013), and (Winter approach et al.- to(11 August), be airlifted and to safetythe A85 at atA85 Glen Glen Ogle Ogle (18 when August). they es to management and mitigation (Winter 2014a, 2016). The links with rainfall are described by Winter The A83 Rest and be Thankful site, while not affect- et al. (2010, 2019). edbecame in August trapped 2004, between has been two extremely major debris active flows. in recent In the absence of serious injuries and fatalities to - those involved, the primary impacts of these events were economic and social. Such impacts include the 2008,years with2009, multiple 2011, 2012, debris 2014, flow 2015,events 2017 and road and 2018asso hadciated an closures; adverse in effect particular on the events travelling in 2007 public.(Figure 2), As a result the area has become the focus of not only concern but also of extensive landslide risk reduction

Fig. 1 Map showing the strategic road network in Scotland. The locations of the three main debris flow event groups that affected the trunk road network in Scotland in August 2004 (1, 2, 3) are shown (from Winter et al. 2009). The locations of the later A83, 2007 Fig. 2 View of the debris flows above and below the A83 on the and 2014, landslides are coincident with the 2004 event at this scale approach to the Rest and be Thankful (location approximately that and the A77, A76, A71 Bellfield Junction flood event from 2012 is of 1b in Figure 1). The head scar is at approximately 370 m Above also shown. The locations for the events correspond to those shown Ordnance Datum (AOD), the A83 at 240 m AOD and the Old Military in Figures 4 (1b), 9 (2), 10 (3) and 11 (4). Road (OMR) at 180 m AOD. Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 209 cost of delays and diversion on transport networks were summarized by Winter, Bromhead (2012), in and the severance of access to and from relatively three categories, as follows: remote communities for services and markets for goods; employment, health and educational opportunities; and social activities. – direct economic impacts, In 2004 for example, the A83, carrying up to 5,000 – Directdirect consequentialeconomic impacts economic: The direct impacts, costs of clean- vehicles per day (all vehicles two-way, 24 hour annu- up– indirectand repair/replacement consequential economic of lost/damaged impacts. infrastructure in the broadest sense and the costs of search in excess of a day, the A9 (carrying 13,500 vehicles and rescue. These should be relatively easy to obtain peral average day) was daily closed traffic, for AADT) two days was prior closed to forreopening, slightly or estimate for any given event, provided that records initially with single lane working under convoy, and are still available. the A85 (carrying 5,600 vehicles per day) was closed Direct consequential economic impacts: These generally relate to ‘disruption to infrastructure’ and are really about loss of utility. For example, the costs of for four days. The traffic flow figures are for the most closing a road (or implementing single-lane convoy highly trafficked month of the year (July or August).- ingMinimum the importance flows occur of intourism either andJanuary related or Februaryseasonal a given diversion, are relatively simple to estimate industriesand are roughly to Scotland’s half those economy. of the Substantial maxima reflectdisrup- usingworking well-established with traffic lights) models. for aThe given costs period of fatal/ with non-fatal injuries and other incident accident costs and goods vehicles. may also be included here and may be taken (on tionThis was paper thus describesexperienced a study by local to assess and tourist the econom traffic,- based on the scheme set-out by Winter and Brom- ora societal indeed basis) rail accidents, directly from there published seems to figures. be no partic While- ic impacts of selected debris flow events in Scotland, ularthese reason are set why out forthey the should costs ofbe road radically traffic different accidents, to using the same set of principles and metrics and the - impactshead (2012). of one The such impacts event are of floodsalso reported can be here.assessed dents are likely to include the recovery of casualties fromthose vehicles. related toIndeed, a landslide for events or flood in which as all large such num inci- bers of casualties may be expected to occur, data for 2. Economic impacts rail accidents may be more appropriate. Indirect consequential economic impacts: Often Due to the major contribution that tourism makes to landslide events affect access to remote rural areas Scotland’s economy the impacts of road closures can with economies that are based upon transport-de- be particularly serious during the summer months, pendent activities, and thus the vulnerability can be extensive and is determined by the transport network and August. Nevertheless, the impacts of any debris rather than the event itself. If a given route is closed during which period debris flows usually occur in July between October and November, and in January when viability of, local business may be affected, for exam- flow event occurring during the winter months,- ple.for a Manufacturing long period then and confidence agriculture in, and(e.g. the forestry ongoing in mated and events are arguably more frequent during western Scotland), are a concern as access to markets debris flow usually occurs, should not be underesti is constrained, the costs of access are increased and described created a high level of interest in the media inthe addition winter. toNot being surprisingly, seen as a thekey debrisissue by flow politicians events term viability may be adversely affected; in Jamaica at both the local and national level. Indeed, the effects abusiness landslide profits on the are B1 affected route andin the short-term Blue Mountains to long- of such small events which may, at most, directly effectively severed local coffee production from the affect a few tens of metres of road cast a considerably most direct route to the international market for that broader vulnerability shadow (Winter, Bromhead high value product (Figure 3). Perhaps of even more concern are the impacts on tourist (and other service - economy) businesses. It is important to understand 2012), which defines the geographical extent of the how the reluctance of visitors to travel to and with- impactsinclude: of landslides and floods. The qualitative eco nomic impacts of such landslide (and flood) events after an event that has received publicity and/or causedin areas casualties affected byand landslides how a period or floods of inaccessibili is affected- – tothe reach loss ofa destination,utility of parts of the road network, ty (reduced or complete) affects the short- and long- – the need to make often extensive detours in order term travel patterns to an area for tourist services. remote communities for services and markets for Such costs form a fundamental element of the overall – goods;the severance employment, of access health to and and educational from relatively oppor- economic impact on society of such events. They are tunities; and social activities. thus important to governments as they should affect The economic impacts of a landslide event that the case for the assignation of budgets to landslide closes a road, and its associated vulnerability shadow, risk mitigation and remediation activities. However, 210 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

the indirect consequential impacts of such event are, they are generally widely dispersed both geograph- at best, rare. icallythese areand also socially. the most Additionally, difficult costs in an to environmentdetermine as The vulnerability shadow cast can be extensive and in which compensation might be anticipated, albeit its geographical extent can be determined by the trans- often erroneously, those that have the best data, the port network, including closures and diversionary businesses affected by such events, are also those that routes, rather than the relatively small footprint of the anticipate such compensatory events. event itself (Winter, Bromhead 2012). In the particular Typically analyses of the economic impacts of case of the event at the A83 Rest and be Thankful in landslides and other natural disasters focus on the October 2007 of the order of around 400 m3 of material direct and/or indirect impacts, with the latter being was deposited at road level with a footprint that closed generally analogous to direct consequential as set- a few tens of metres of the road (Winter 2014); the vul- out above (Schuster 1996; Highland 2006; Hearn et nerability shadow can be estimated to be of the order al. 2008; Chang, Nojima 2001; Bono, Gutiérrez 2011; of 2,800 km2 (total area approximately 3,500 km2, Bil et al. 2015; Klose et al. 2015). Attempts to evaluate

20% allowed for areasFig. of 3 sea)Landslide (Figure 4) on the B1which road atis, for Section in Portland Parish, Jamaica. This event severed much of the local coffee production industry from the ports used to ship the product to market. (The picture is a photo-collage and some distortion is inevitable.)

Fig. 4 A relatively small debris flow event (blue rectangle) closed the A83 at the Rest and be Thankful in October 2007; the vulnerability shadow that was cast (bounded in red) was extensive (Winter 2014a; 2014b). See Figure 1 (1b) for the event location in the wider geographical context. (Image based on OS Route Planner 2016 Map. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved Scottish Government 100020540, 2019.) Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 211 the purpose of comparison, approximately two-and-a- The economic impact and the vulnerability shadow half times the total land area of Hong Kong SAR. are concepts that apply equally to other discrete cli- The area has a population density of approximately 13 people/km2 (www.argyll-bute.gov.uk) and the event thus had the potential to have had an eco- generallymate driven thought events, to such be likely as floods, to increase that may in close frequency parts - asof thea result road ofnetwork. climate Bothchange landslides (Galbraith and et floods al. 2005; are ple in Argyll, Bute, plus any transient (e.g. tourist) Anon. 2011; Winter et al. 2010; Winter, Shearer 2013). population.nomic impact upon up to approximately 36,400 peo Notwithstanding the above, it is clear that for some It is instructive to make some simple comparisons events the hazard itself, and not the transport net- with Hong Kong SAR, which has an average population work or, more pointedly, its density, that determines density of around 6,500 people/km2 (www.gov.hk). the location, shape and extent (morphology) of the This dictates a much greater transport network den- vulnerability shadow. It is therefore important to rec- sity. Thus, and purely for the sake of comparison, in ognise that the morphology of the vulnerability shad- order to have an economic impact on the same number ow caused by other types of event (e.g. glacial lake of people the vulnerability shadow cast need only be approximately 5.6 km2 (2 km by 2.8 km, for example). the hazard itself. It is not suggested that the economic impacts would outburstAn example floods), in may which be thedetermined hazard itself by the determines nature of be similar for events with vulnerability shadows of the vulnerability shadow is that of the Seti River debris these diverse sizes in Argyll, Bute and Hong Kong. However, it is clear that the low density/dispersed network in Argyll, Bute dictates a large vulnerability channelflow in Nepal over an(Figure approximate 5). On 5 40May km 2012 length. a major The event shadow while the much more dense/less dispersed wascaused thought significant to have erosion resulted and from deposition a failed in landslide the river network in Hong Kong means that the vulnerability dam. However, subsequent inspection of satellite shadow will be much less extensive, with the possible imagery and aerial photography (Petley, Stark 2012; exception of events that affect critical infrastructure Petley 2014), and more detailed site inspection and corridors, as more alternative routes will exist and investigation (Dahal , Bhandary 2013) led to a rather will be more proximal to the event (Winter 2014b). As part of this work (Winter et al. 2018), the initiated by part of a 22 Mm3 rock avalanche origi- vulnerability shadow has been evaluated using differentnating on conclusion; the slopes that of Annapurna the event was IV aentering debris flow the knowledge of the local transport networks and the upper stream channel at high speed. An estimated socio-economic activity associated with the network 71 people lost their lives at Kharapani, some 20 km that has been built up over a period of 30 years. This north of Pokhara. The vulnerability shadow was con- includes a holistic evaluation of major nodes, origins and destinations and includes both experience and the stream channel, extending beyond these bounds knowledge gleaned from formal surveys (e.g. Winter onlystrained where by infrastructurethe dimensions was of damaged,the hazard including flow within the et al. 2013). footbridge at Kharapani.

Fig. 5 Residents of Kharapani located on the platform in the middle distance on the Seti River, Nepal, were among fatalities from the 5 May 2012 debris flow event. The abutment of the suspended footbridge is on the platform. 212 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

3. Methodology If a road is closed, either fully or partially, as a result of an event some or all of the users of that route will 3.1 Direct Economic Impacts have to take an alternative, diversionary route, which Direct economic impacts should be the most straightforward to determine. Indeed, this has generally Even if no diversion is necessary, then the capacity of proved to be the case with relatively recent events themay road be significantly will likely be longerreduced than (e.g. the through primary a lane route. clo- that occurred within the currency of existing net- sure or the imposition of a speed limit) meaning that work operation contracts. Thus, data relating to the queues form, particularly at peak times, slowing the 2007 and 2014 A83 Rest and be Thankful events were readily available from the company responsible for road users’ journey times. It is also pertinent to note the operation of roads in this north-west part of Scot- thattraffic such flow. queues These if effectsformed can adjacent significantly to areas increase of high land at the times of enquiry, as was data for the 2012 risks to the affected road users. Data on direct economic impacts was generally landslideThe QUADRO susceptibility (QUeues can And significantly Delays at ROadworks)increase the collectedflooding event. from the records of the companies respon- model provides a method for assessing the costs sible for operating the road network. However, data imposed on road users while roadworks are being from less recent events such as the landslide events carried out, considering: of 2004 (Winter et al. 2005, 2006, 2009) proved more journey times, priced using the value of their time auditors had changed since the events occurred; as – (e.g.Delays cost to to road their users: employer’s the change business in road of the users’ time Highlanddifficult to (2006) obtain points largely out as bothpast datathe operators are generally and spent travelling during the working day) based on labour intensive to retrieve. the type of vehicle, its occupants and trip purpose. The passage of time and the consequent lack - of readily available records limited the resolution sions due to vehicle fuel consumption, based on and reliability of the data that can be obtained for – Fuel carbon emissions: the change in carbon emis the 2004 events. What data has been obtained was using estimated abatement costs (see STAG and derived from high level reporting documents to Scot- WebTAG)average figures (Anon. per 2012a, litre 2012b). of fuel burnt and costed tish Ministers and Senior Civil Servants and covers all three of the event groups from August 2004 (A83, A9 accidents, in terms of the additional delay caused and A85). This data has been interpreted and broken – andAccident the direct costs: costs the (e.g.change property in the damage,occurrence police of down to the best of the ability of the original authors time and insurance administration). and editors of the Scottish Road Network Landslide Study reports (Winter et al. 2005, 2009). to the diversion route if the site becomes overloaded, representingThe program both contains the road a model users forthat allocating queue through traffic 3.2 Direct Consequential Economic Impacts the site and those that take an alternate route in the Direct consequential economic impacts are related case of a partial closure. The details of QUADRO, to ‘disruption to infrastructure’ and concern loss of including all assumptions made in its calculations, are utility or the costs imposed on road users. For exam- provided in the manual (Anon. 2015). ple, the costs of closing a road (or implementing sin- In order to model a road closure in QUADRO, with a given diversion, are relatively straightforward (QUADRO Diversion) tool was used to model the togle-lane estimate working using with well-established traffic lights) models. for a given The period costs standarda diversionary diversionary route must routes be defined.used by Thethe QDIVroad of fatal/non-fatal injuries and incident damage only operator. accidents are also included here and may be taken QDIV requires each diversionary route to be

(Anon. 2013b). While these are set out for the costs urban, sub-urban or small town) that can be com- (on a societal basis) directly from published figures bineddefined in in series terms and of aparallel set of links to build (each up defined a network. as rural, For rail accidents) there seems to be no particular reason - whyof road they traffic should accidents be radically (figures different are also to available those relat for- matic was developed and Google Maps was used to measureeach event, the a length simplified of each diversionary link (Winter network et al. 2018). sche the recovery of casualties from vehicles. Indeed, for - edevents to a involvinglandslide largeor flood numbers as both of are casualties, likely to it include can be argued that data relating to railway accidents may be RoadTraffic Administrations. data, represented as annual average daily traf more appropriate. In all of the cases presented here fic (AADT),Where information were sourced was using not data available from the (e.g. relevant lane the accidents have been non-injury accidents (dam- and verge widths), the default values suggested in age only) and the numbers of vehicles involved have - been estimated from contemporaneous photographs thereforethe QUADRO the proportionmanual were of heavyadopted. vehicles, Classified were trafonly fic counts (i.e. split into different vehicle types), and taken by the first author and others. Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 213

Table 1 Site parameters for the direct consequential economic impact analysis.

Number vehicles Traffic (AADT) Junction length Event HGVs (%) Closure type(s) Closure duration damaged (vehicles/day)2 (km) August 2004: A83 Glen 1 5,554 9 20 Full closure 2 days Kinglas to Cairndow (L)1 August 2004: A9 N of Full closure, then shuttle 2 days full 5 13,864 18 18 Dunkeld (L) working with convoy 6 days convoy August 2004: A85 Glen 3 4,403 10 26 Full closure 4 days Ogle (L) October 2007: A83 Rest Full closure, then shuttle 15 days full 1 5,748 10 20 and be Thankful (L) working3 27 days shuttle4 A77: Full closure 25 hours September 2012: A77, A76: Full closure then 19 hours full A76, A71 Bellfield Junction 0 6,400 to 13,800 6 0.3 to 4.9 shuttle working 2 days shuttle (F) A71 Full closure 67 hours Full closure (daytime) 10 hours Full closure (night time) 28 hours Convoy (daytime)6 42 hours October 2014: A83 Rest 0 5,460 9.5 20 / 45 Convoy (night time)6 56 hours and be Thankful (L) Shuttle (daytime) 40 hours Shuttle (night time) 42 hours Shuttle (24 hours) 682 hours 1 L = Landslide; F = Flood. 2 Peak monthly figures, usually for August. 3 Single-lane working with traffic light control. 4 This figure represents the duration of the closure due to the instability and the immediate engineering works required to allow the reopening of the road. It is acknowledged that the road was subsequently subject to single lane working with traffic light control for a significantly longer period due to engineering works necessitated by the combination of this and subsequent events in the immediate vicinity. 5 20 km for full closure, 4 km for convoy working on the old Military Road (OMR). 6 Using the OMR, the temporary diversion used when the A83 Rest and be Thankful road is closed. available for some links; either the proportion from Surveys of businesses were undertaken in the areas the closest link or a nominal 10% HGVs was assumed of the 2004 A85 landslide; 2012 A77, A76, A71 Bell- (Table 1). It was assumed that all of the roads affected were The surveys used questionnaires based on the Stat- rural all-purpose single carriageways with a speed lim- edfield Preference Junction flood;approach and thatA83 were 2014 mailed landslide to respon events.- dents with follow up telephone calls to improve the where part of the road remained open following the response rate that varied between 20.8% (A5 Glen it of 96 km/h (60 mph), reduced to 48 km/h (30 mph) Ogle) 17% (A83 Rest and be Thankful) and 11.7% affected site in each case was 100 m. (The speed limit atlandslide the A85 or site flood was event, reduced and from that the the national length ofspeed the (A77, A76, A71 Bellfield Junction). November 2015, more than a decade after the events 4. Results andlimit around of 96 km/h the time(60 mph)that aspectto 80 km/h of the (50 mph) study was in completed.) 4.1 Direct Economic Impacts The available data is reported in Table 2, adjusted to 3.3 Indirect Consequential Economic Impacts 2012 prices. There is a wide range of possible approaches to esti- Direct economic impacts include: mating the indirect consequential economic impacts 1. The direct costs of clean-up and the costs of search of landslides. These include: and rescue. 2. The repair/replacement of lost/damaged infrastructure in the broadest sense. – cost-benefit analysis, These might otherwise be described as ‘emergency – cost-effectiveness analysis, response’ and ‘remedial works’, respectively as in Table 2. – willingness to pay, Direct economic costs for the landside events – Inmulti-criteria addition, there analysis, are bespoke methods designed range between approximately £250k and £1,700k. to– addressmethods a based particular upon set Transport of circumstances Appraisal. (McLeod et al. 2005; Anon. 2013b) as described by Winter et part of Scotland the direct costs were relatively small al. (2018). (aroundFor the flood £25k). event in a more developed peri-urban 214 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

Table 2 Direct economic impacts (at 2012 prices).

Event Emergency response Remedial works Total August 2004: A83 Glen Kinglas to Cairndow £395,043 £395,043 August 2004: A9 N of Dunkeld £921,766 £921,766 August 2004: A85 Glen Ogle £658,405 £658,405 October 2007: A83 Rest and be Thankful £320,772 £1,372,6291 £1,693,401 September 2012: A77, A76, A71 Bellfield Junction £16,756 £8,333 £25,088 October 2014: A83 Rest and be Thankful £245,328 £02 £245,328 1 Comprises: debris barrier (including design, tender, award, construction and supervision) £425,446 (at 2012 prices); works prior to culvert replacement (including ongoing traffic management and carriageway protection, culvert design, geotechnical design and certification, ground investigation and diversion fibre optic telecommunications cable) £181,184; and culvert replacement (construction) £765,999. These works were undertaken in direct response to the October 2007 event and may thus be attributed to this event. 2 While an extensive programme of remedial works has been undertaken at the wider A83 Rest and be Thankful site, some of which is focused on the location of the 28 October 2014 event, this was installed prior to the event and thus cannot be attributed to this event. In broad terms the remedial measures, including both management and mitigation measures (Winter 2014), worked as anticipated and would not have been expected to prevent a debris flow of this size from reaching the road.

4.2 Direct Consequential Economic Impacts (Anon. 2015) and the associated values are based on QUADRO enables the calculation of the costs of user national statistics. delays and diversions, carbon emissions from vehi- - cles and accidents associated with the road works, els, and closure type and duration (Table 4), reveals reporting the costs on the basis of an average day patternsCareful that consideration are broadly ofconsistent the relative with trafficthose thatlev over a whole week (Table 3); the total costs for each might be inferred intuitively, as follows: site, taking into account the duration of the impacts, are summarised in Table 4. Implicit are assumptions cf. A83 2004). regarding the costs of time (vehicle occupancy, jour- – The costs of similar closures depend on traffic levels; ney purpose, and the value of time for both occupants costs being in proportion to traffic (A9 and vehicles), vehicle operating costs (and associated – cfDoubling. A85). the duration incurs higher costs, but may carbon costs), and the value of accidents that occur be reduced if the traffic levels are lower (A83 2004- within the section(s) of road under consideration cantly (A83 2007). – A much longer duration increases the costs signifi

Table 3 Incident accident costs (per vehicle) and QUADRO daily closure costs (at 2012 prices).

October 2007: September 2012: August 2004: October 2014: A83 August 2004: A83 A83 Rest and be A77, A76, A71 A9 N of Dunkeld August 2004: Rest and be Thankful1 Cost (£) Glen Kinglas to Thankful Bellfield Junction (Full closure/ A85 Glen Ogle (Full closure/ convoy/ Cairndow (Full closure/ (Full closure/ shuttle working) shuttle working) shuttle working) shuttle working) Accident incident cost 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,250 Delay cost (daily) 84,071 270,885 / 135,339 71,679 88,040 / 461 1,548,624 / 94,363 168 to 83,427 Carbon cost (daily) 6,380 18,608 / 9,304 6,629 6,590 / 6 73,922 / 671 2 to 6,262 Accident cost (daily) −4,360 −11,254 / −5,627 −4,494 −4,512 / 794 −38,568 / 7,564 −4,268 to 312 1 The daily delay, carbon and accident costs for the October 2014 Rest and be Thankful event vary significantly, by several orders of magnitude, for the various types of closure described in Table 2 and accordingly only the range is reported here. Full details are given by Winter et al. (2018). The higher costs (lower daily accident costs) are for full closure and the lowest costs (highest daily accident costs) are for shuttle working.

Table 4 Total incident accident costs and QUADRO total closure costs (at 2012 prices).

October 2007: September 2012: October 2014: A83 August 2004: August 2004: A83 A83 Rest and be A77, A76, A71 Rest and be Thankful A9 N of Dunkeld August 2004: Cost (£) Glen Kinglas to Thankful Bellfield Junction (Full closure/ (Full closure/ A85 Glen Ogle Cairndow (Full closure/ (Full closure/ convoy/shuttle shuttle working) shuttle working) shuttle working) working) Accident incident cost 2,520 12,600 7,560 2,520 0 0 Delay cost 168,143 1,218,460 286,718 1,333,020 3,080,542 173,956 Carbon cost 12,762 83,737 26,514 99,029 151,669 9,164 Accident cost −8,721 −45,288 −17,974 −46,247 −71,309 29,466 Total 174,703 1,269,508 302,817 1,388,322 3,160,902 212,587 Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 215

Fig. 6 Word map of responses from survey respondents: A85 Fig. 7 Word map of responses from survey respondents: A77, A76, Glen Ogle, 18 August 2004 landslide. A71 Bellfield Junction Flooding: 21 September 2012.

Of particular interest are the negative costs (i.e. relate to the effects, risks, or impacts, that derive from the event. In this case the most frequently used word is ‘road’, with words such as ‘closed’, ‘staff’, ‘visitors’, reducedcost reductions) accident costs for traffic suggest accidents a decrease during in accident post- ‘due’, ‘access’, ‘tourism’, ‘minor’ and ‘island’ also coming numbersevent diversions and/or and/or accident restricted severity traffic and seemflow. These most to the fore. These latter responses seemingly describe - the consequences of the hazard, or the economic risks ing to an increased opportunity to avoid accidents and associated with the hazard, rather than the hazard lowerlikely toseverity be as awhen result they of reduced do occur. traffic speeds lead itself, implying a greater economic impact or, at least, The landslide events were located in rural areas a greater awareness of the economic impact. and their impacts are upon those areas and small towns and villages. Direct consequential costs range between approximately £180k and £1,400k for the landslide events. The latter costs are largely depend- the duration of the disruption. ent upon the amount of traffic that uses the road and- oped part of Scotland and on the edge of a town (Kil- The flood event was located in a much more devel shorter event duration, places a different complex- ionmarnock). on the Thedirect peri-urban consequential flood locationeconomic and impacts much which were more than twice those for the A83 2007 (c. £3,200k). Fig. 8 Word map of responses from survey respondents: A83 Rest Notwithstanding this the impacts of the A83 and be Thankful, 28 October 2014 landslide. event(s) should not be underestimated: those impacts were borne by a much smaller number of people over 5. Vulnerability shadow an extended period; the impacts on individuals and individual businesses seem likely to have been con- The vulnerability shadow for the October 2007 debris siderably greater. This part of the analysis also does - not take account of the longer term indirect conse- mated at around 2,800 km2. This description holds quential economic impacts (see Section 4.3). flowfor the is eventdescribed in 2014 in Section also as 2the (Figure road closure 4) and wasis esti on the same link between the junctions with the A814 4.3 Indirect Consequential Economic Impacts at Arrochar and the B828 immediately to the north The surveys of businesses in the areas of these events of the Rest and be Thankful car park with no entry or provided cost information that could be interpreted exit routes to the A83 between. in a number of ways and therefore gave a very wide range of potential results. The results did, however, occurred to the east of the B828 (serving Lochgoil- provide useful qualitative information (Winter et al. head),While the the August 2007 2004 and 2014events A83 at the debris A83 flowwere events locat- 2018). For events of lesser impact, descriptors that ed to the west of the B828 in Glen Kinglas and further to the west, beyond the A815 (serving inter alia other words that describe the event itself are also to Dunoon) to the west of Cairndow (around 5 km to the therelate fore to (Figuresthe hazard 6 and are used:7). ‘landslide’, ‘flooding’ and north-west of the 2007/2014 events shown in Figure In contrast responses to events of greater impact 4). Notwithstanding this, the differences in the diver- and or repetition such as at the A83 (Figure 8), at sions for the two sets of events were subtle and it is broadly considered that the extent of the vulnerability closures have occurred over the past 20 years, tend to shadow was not dissimilar. which a significant number of events and consequent 216 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

Fig. 9 Three main debris flow events (blue rectangle) closed the A9 N of Dunkeld on 11 August 2004; the vulnerability shadow that was cast (bounded in red) was extensive and reflects the importance of the A9, particularly to the communities to the north. See Figure 1 (2) for the event location in the wider geographical context. (Image based on OS Route Planner 2016 Map. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved Scottish Government 100020540, 2019.)

Fig. 10 Two debris flow events (blue rectangle) closed the A85 in Glen Ogle on 18 August 2004; the vulnerability shadow that was cast (bounded in red) was limited by the reasonably good range of alternative routes in the area. See Figure 1 (3) for the event location in the wider geographical context. (Image based on OS Route Planner 2016 Map. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved Scottish Government 100020540, 2019.) Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 217

Fig. 11 Flooding at the A77, A76, A71 Bellfield Junction (blue rectangle) closed all three roads on 21 September 2012; the area of the vulnerability shadow that was cast (bounded in red) was limited by the availability of diversionary routes. See Figure 1 (4) for the event location in the wider geographical context. (Image based on OS 1:250,000 mapping. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved Scottish Government 100020540, 2019.)

Those for the other 2004 events were estimat- records of landslides and their associated costs were ed at around 8,000 km2 (A9: Figure 9) and 800 km2 inadequate and that a standardised approach to (A85: Figure 10). The vulnerability shadow cast for landslide loss inventory would reduce the cost, and improve the usability and availability of landslide loss information. Further work by Highland (2012) deals the importanceA9 debris flow of the events A9 as tothe the primary north north-southof Dunkeld in more detail with both direct economic impacts and route(11 August in Scotland, 2004) isleading significant to the (Figure most northerly 9), reflecting city also some aspects of direct consequential and indi- of Inverness (population around 47,000) and numer- rect consequential economic impacts, although these ous smaller communities along the route and to the latter two are usually described in a qualitative man- north of Inverness, and the relative paucity of alterna- ner. Highland describes decreased economic activi- tive routes and their commensurate length. The A85 ty in some areas and increased economic activity in Glen Ogle vulnerability shadow cast for the 18 August other areas (e.g. as a result of the Glenwood Canyon

- an increase in the incidence of charter aeroplane use tral2004 position debris offlow that is, area by comparison,in Scotland and relatively the existence small betweenRockfall) keyand locations both higher on eitherthan usual side of flight the event.costs and (Figure 10). This, in turn, reflects the relatively cen A related study (Klose et al. 2015) collected data around the area. and modelled the costs incurred due to landslides andThe relative vulnerability efficiency shadow of alternate cast routesby the through21 Septem andthat affected the federal road network in the Lower - Saxon Uplands in NW Germany. The approach used the data collected at a local level to extrapolate direct ber 20122 (the flooding nearby event town at of the Kilmarnock A77, A76, has A71 a popu Bell- costs for the region, using the results of a susceptibil- lationfield Junction of approximately (Figure 11) 46,000). was smaller The road still network at around in ity assessment and an infrastructure exposure model. this500 km area is much denser, and the population density is However, this study deals only with direct economic much higher, than that in the other areas studied and impacts and this degree of extrapolation across the this leads to reasonable alternative routes, albeit with network was not considered appropriate to the situation in Scotland where landslides occur relatively infrequently. significant associated disruption to traffic. Hearn et al. (2008) deal with both direct and direct 6. Discussion consequential economic impacts, but their approach to direct consequential impacts appears to be based Highland (2006) (see also Schuster 1996; Schus- on the assumption that all vehicles (and drivers and ter, Highland 2007; Highland 2012) concluded that passengers) that would normally use the road for the 218 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling period of the closure will wait for it to be reopened. of a route study of the A83 (Anon. 2013a) returning While this might be appropriate for Laos, where the be Thankful. While this provides useful context, it is the road network it does not account for either diver- nota figure entirely of £286k clear perhow landslide much of atthat the total A83 wouldRest and be study was conducted, and reflects the morphology of accounted for by direct consequential impacts that in Europe. were also included or for how long the impacts were sionsThe or lack restrictions of a robust of traffic database flow ofas arelandslide more normalevents assumed to endure. makes a quantitative national economic analysis The vulnerability shadow proved to be a useful tool to understand and articulate the extent of the media in the UK annually (38 in 2010) (Gibson et al. socio-economic vulnerabilities and, indeed, the pop- 2012).difficult. Anon. Almost (2013a) 40 landslides noted that are between reported 1 January in the ulations potentially affected. 2007 and 31 October 2012, the A83 at the Rest and The vulnerability shadows determined from the - various events demonstrate that their extent is deter- slides and these and other landslides have been enu- mined by the density of the network, and the linked Bemerated Thankful and wasdescribed closed (e.g. five Wintertimes as et a al. result 2005, of 2006,land availability and suitability of alternative routes. Clear- 2009) extensively in recent years. Despite this Dobbie ly there is also a strong correlation between these et al. (2011) consider that landslides are rare in Scot- factors and the population served by the routes and land. Whatever the rarity or otherwise of such events, affected by the events; as the density of the network, better data is critical to the effective management of and availability and suitability of alternative routes reduces so does the population served. This must of Association of British Insurers (Anon. 2010). course be set against the fact that the lower density risks, as highlighted for flood hazards and risks by the- networks are often lifeline routes with few, if any, land’s (2006) assertion that past data for direct alternatives and their importance to a smaller popu- economicImportantly, impacts this are current generally work labour confirms intensive High to retrieve. The experience here has been that as people or a similar tool being used in other studies. move on both knowledge and experience are lost but, lation is amplified. The authors are not aware of this even more critically, as contracts pass to new organizations data and information about events is lost. 7. Summary and conclusions The modelling of direct consequential economic impacts has not been attempted before and this This paper presents the results of a study to develop throws up some interesting but rather unsurprising methods of obtaining data on the economic impacts of landslides and the associated extent of those impacts. The economic impacts of landslides are considered durationconclusions – not for which leastit is affected. that the Notwithstanding total costs depend this, in three categories: direct economic impacts, direct primarily on the amount of traffic affected and the consequential economic impacts, and indirect con- are lower the network may represent a lifeline route sequential economic impacts. This approach is also withit is important limited, complex/lengthy to recognize that and/or where no traffic alternative levels routes. Similarly, indirect consequential economic impacts applicable to events that reflect relatively discrete are rarely evaluated. The surveys conducted for this Scottishclosures landslideincluding events climate-driven that occurred flooding. between 2004 work provided important and very useful qualitative andThe 2014. work Direct presented costs range herein between includes approximate data for five- data as set-out in Section 4.3 and represented in Fig- ly £250k and £1,700k for the landslide event, while ures 6,7 and 8. Indeed, some of the comments from the Direct consequential costs range between around assertion that economic impacts need not only be £180kthose costs and £1,400k for the floodfor the event landslide are relatively events. The small. lat- A85negative, Glen that Ogle some survey can confirmed be positive: Highland’s (2006) - that uses the road and the duration of the disruption. slide site. The landslide itself had little impact, it ter are largely dependent upon the amount of traffic – “Morewas the people associated rented bad bikes weather to go andthat visitwas thethe probland- part of Scotland although the direct costs were small butFor thea flood direct event consequential in a more costs developed (c. £3,200k) peri-urban much retailer. greater than for any of the landslide sites considered. lem - the main street was flooded” according to one - able to] put up people in the guest house who had tively short duration compared to the high cost land- – Hoteliersbeen trapped also seem in the to glenhave (andbenefited who ashad “[they been were air- Itslide is also event. worth noting that flood event was of a rela lifted out) free of charge. The same happened in Work on indirect consequential impacts has pro- different places around Killin,” which apparently vided valuable qualitative insights although meaning- “improved the image of the town.” ful quantitative data proved rather elusive. Notwithstanding this an assessment that included The vulnerability shadow proved to be a useful indirect consequential impacts was reported as part tool to understand and articulate the extent of the Economic impacts of landslides and floods on a road network 219 socio-economic vulnerabilities and the populations Government, Edinburgh. (Accessed December 2012: potentially affected. They also aid in understanding www.sepa.org.uk/land/land_publications.aspx.) and communicating the inter-relations between the Galbraith, R. M., Price, D. J., Shackman, L. (Eds.) (2005): density of the network, the linked availability and Scottish road network climate change study. Scottish suitability of alternative routes. Executive, Edinburgh. Gibson, A. D., Culshaw, M. G., Dashwood, C., Pennington, C. V. L. (2012): Landslide management in the UK the problem of managing hazards in a ‘low-risk’ Acknowledgements doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0346-4. Transport Scotland’s funding of this work is gratefully Hearn,environment. G., Hunt, T., Landslides Aubert, J., 10(5), Howell, 599–610, J. (2008): https:// Landslide acknowledged. impacts on the road network of Lao PDR and the This paper is published with the permission of feasibility of implementing a slope management Transport Scotland and TRL Limited. programme. Proceedings, International Conference on

Region (Ed: Chigira, M.), 187-195. The Japan Landslide References Society,Management Tokyo. of Landslide Hazard in the Asia-Pacific Highland, L. M. (2006): Estimating landslide

British Insurers, London. project. US Geological Survey Open File Report Anon. (2010):(2011): FightingScottish roadflood network risk together. climate Association change of losses – preliminary results of a seven-state pilot study: UKCP09 update. Transport Scotland, Edinburgh. /ofr20061032. (Accessed February 2014: http://www Highland,2006–1032, L. M. (2012):USGS, Reston, Landslides VA, https://doi.org/10.3133 in Colorado, USA: .transportscotland.gov.uk/.) impacts and loss estimation for the year 2010. US Anon. (2012a): Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance. Transport Scotland, Edinburgh. (Accessed February Reston, VA, https://doi.org/10.3133 2014: http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/stag /ofr20121204.Geological Survey Open File Report 2012–1204, USGS, /home.) Klose, M., Damn, B., Terhorst, B. (2015): Landslide Anon. (2012b): TAG UNIT 3.3.5: The Greenhouse Gases Sub- cost modelling for transportation infrastructures: Objective, August. Department for Transport, London. (Accessed February 2014: http://www.dft.gov.uk https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0481-1. /webtag.) MacLeod,a methodological A., Hofmeister, approach, R. J. Wang, Landslides, Y., Burns, 12, S. 321–334, (2005): Landslide indirect losses: methods and case studies Rest and be Thankful. Final Report. Report prepared by from Oregon, State of Oregon, Department of Geology Anon.Jacobs (2013a): for Transport A83 Trunk Scotland, Road Route 212p. Study: (Accessed Part FebruaryA – A83 and Mineral Industries Open File Report O-05-X, 2014: http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/road Portland, OR. /maintenance/landslides.) Anon. (2013b): Reported road casualties Scotland 2012. what was the role of the smaller landslide downstream? Transport Scotland, Edinburgh. (Accessed September Petley,(Accessed D. N. (2014): February The 2014: Seti River blogs.agu.org/landslideblog debris flow in Nepal – 2015: www.transportscotland.gov.uk/statistics /2014/02/07/seti-river/.) /reported-road-casualties-scotland-all-editions.) Petley, D. N., Stark, C. (2012): Understanding the Seti Anon. (2015): The QUADRO 4 Manual, Part 2: The valuation River landslide in Nepal. (Accessed February 2014: of costs in QUADRO. (Accessed September 2015: http:// blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2012/05/23 tamesoftware.co.uk/manuals/manuals.html/.) /understanding-the-seti-river-landslide-in-nepal/.) Bono F., Gutiérrez E. (2011): A network-based analysis of the impact of structural damage on urban accessibility following a disaster: the case of the seismically damaged Schuster,Transportation R. L. (1996): Research Socioeconomic Board Special significance Report 247,of Port Au Prince and Carrefour urban road networks. landslides, Landslides – Investigation and Mitigation: Schuster, R. L., Highland, L. M. (2007): The Third Hans Cloos doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.08.002. Lecture,36–75, Washington, Urban landslides: DC. socioeconomic impacts and Journal of Transport Geography 19, 1443–1455, https:// overview of mitigative strategies. Bulletin of Engineering Evaluating road network damage caused by natural Bíl,disasters M., Vodák, in R., the Kubeček, Czech Republic J., Bílová, between M., Sedoník, 1997 J. and (2015): 2010. doi.org/10.1007/s10064-006-0080-z. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 80, Winter,Geology M. G. and (2014a): the Environment A strategic 66,approach 1–27, https:// to landslide risk reduction. International Journal of Landslide and Chang, S.E., Nojima, N. (2001): Measuring post-disaster transportation90–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.07.006. system performance: the 1995 Kobe Winter, M. G. (2014b): The vulnerability shadow cast by earthquake in comparative perspective. Transportation Environment 2, 14–23. and Territory, Volume 6: Applied Geology for Major https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(00)00003-3. Engineeringdebris flow events, Works Engineering(Eds: Lollino, Geology G., Giordan, for Society D., Thuro, Dahal,Research R. K., Bhandary,Part A: Policy N. P. and (2013): Practice Excursion 35, 475–494, guidebook L., Carranza-Torres, C., Wu, F., Marinos, P. Delgado, C.), for Pokhara Valley area. Unpublished. Dobbie, K. E., Bruneau, P. M. C., Towers, W. (Editors) (2011): Winter, M. G. (2016): A strategic approach to debris The state of Scotland’s soil. Natural Scotland, Scottish 641–644, Heidelberg: Springer.

flow risk reduction on the road network. Procedia 220 Mike G. Winter, David Peeling, Derek Palmer, James Peeling

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/s11069-011-9987-1. change in Scotland. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Winter,Hazards M. G., 62, Corby, 169–187, A. (2012): https://doi.org/10.1007 A83 Rest and be Thankful: Shackman, L. (2010): Debris flow, rainfall and climate ecological and related landslide mitigation options. .org/10.1144/1470-9236/08-108. Published Project Report PPR 636, Transport Research Winter,Geology M. G., and Harrison, Hydrogeology M., Macgregor, 43, 429–446, F., Shackman, https://doi L. Laboratory, Wokingham. (2013): Landslide hazard assessment and ranking on Winter, M. G., Shearer, B. (2013): Climate change and the Scottish road network. Proceedings, Institution of Civil Engineers (Geotechnical Engineering) 166(GE6), Published Project Report PPR 650, Transport Research landslideLaboratory, hazard Wokingham. and risk – a Scottish perspective. Winter, M. G., Shearer, B., Palmer, D., Peeling, D., Peeling, Winter, M. G., Macgregor, F., Shackman, L. (Eds.) (2005): J.,522–539, Harmer, https://doi.org/10.1680/geng.12.00063. C., Sharpe, J. (2018): Assessment of the Scottish Road Network Landslides Study. The Scottish economic impacts of landslides and other climate-driven Executive, Edinburgh. events. Published Project Report PPR, TRL, Winter, M. G., Heald, A., Parsons, J., Shackman, Wokingham. Winter, M. G., Ognissanto, F., Martin, L. A. (2019): Rainfall of August 2004. Quarterly Journal of Engineering thresholds for landslides: deterministic and probabilistic L., Macgregor, F. (2006): Scottish debris flow events approaches. Published Project Report PPR 901, .org/10.1144/1470-9236/05-049. Transport Research Laboratory, Wokingham. Geology and Hydrogeology 39, 73–78, https://doi Original Article 221

European imbalances and shifts of global value chains to the Central European periphery: role of institutions Pavel Hnát, Ondřej Sankot*

University of Economics, Prague, Faculty of International Relations, Department of World Economy, Czechia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT This article deals with the topic of European imbalances. They are defined as large and persistent differences in the current account position of European countries, which are closely connected to the emergence of the financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2008. A build-up in current account deficits had been observed from the mid-1990s, namely in two peripheral regions of the EU. However, little attention was paid to the potential differences between the Southern and Central European peripheries of the EU. The emergence of large and persistent current account deficits in Southern Europe was accompanied by a significant shift in gains from global value chains. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that co-determined the changes in the geographic structure of GVCs in Europe. These changes decreased GVC income in Southern Europe, increased it in Central Europe and contributed to the build-up of account imbalances in Southern Europe. Despite the fact that Central Europe was among the deficit regions in European imbalances, the four Central European countries substantially increased their gains from global value chains as well as GVC participation. The shift in GVC activity towards Central Europe between 1995 and 2011 was driven not only by total labour costs but also by better regulatory quality. At the same time, TNCs switching from Southern to Central Europe had to accept worse quality contract enforcement.

Keywords global value chains; institutions; European imbalances; Central Europe

Received: 9 April 2019 Accepted: 13 November 2019 Published online: 19 December 2019

Hnát, P., Sankot, O. (2019): European imbalances and shifts of global value chains to the Central European periphery: role of institutions. AUC Geographica 54(2), 221–231 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.19

1. Introduction Central European periphery) by Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. European imbalances, which have been studied in debt crisis revealed the underlying structural weak- line with global imbalances (see Dunaway 2009; ECB Thenesses financial of the crisis European in 2008 integration and subsequent project. sovereign These 2008; or O’Brien, Williams 2007 for example), are weaknesses require major action and increased coordination in economic policies. With most attention account positions of different European countries (or being paid to structural differences within the euro economicdefined as models).large and Thesepersistent imbalances differences underpinned in current area, the political agenda has also slowly addressed OECD (2010) data reveal a current account balance Europe’s East and West. The legacy of the Eastern the build-up to the financial crisis of 2008 in Europe. enlargementthe significant has thus structural increasingly differences come under between scruti- - ny. Moreover, its policy implications are very carefully tionally,of between current −5% account and 7% position of national only GDPunderpinned in 1995 studied, namely with respect to the labour market and changingand of between debtor-creditor −14% and relations 8% of GDP with in Greece,2008. Addi Por- tugal and Spain cumulating more than 70% of GDP in in Europe (data will be examined from 1995 to 2011 international liabilities by 2008, while major current inmigration. this paper, During referring the build-upto the early to theyears financial of the build-crisis account surplus countries became major creditors. Growing current account surpluses in the North are and initial years of the crisis itself), the problem of mostly attributed to the creation of the euro, which Europe’sup and its Eastern escalation periphery on the evewas of not the obvious financial or crisis was made the core countries’ investment rise in the euro neglected. Policy debate as well as theoretical expla- area peripheries (IMF 2009). The prevailing rigidities nations of why the crisis hit Europe so hard mostly of Europe’s core goods and labour markets, which followed structural issues within the euro area. They limited investment opportunities (Dunaway 2009), left Central European countries aside and paid the also contribute to the imbalances. The peripheries’ greatest attention to Southern Europe, i.e. Greece, Ita- - ly, Portugal and Spain. From today’s perspective it is, itiveness in the new economic climate caused by the adoptiondeficits were of amostly common explained currency by declining(Wyplosz compet 2010). challenges arising from Central European countries’ Falling competitiveness was fuelled by growing differ- tradehowever, and obvious labour market that there integration. are also significant Since trade policy inte- ences in wages and productivity between the periphery and the core (IMF 2009) as well as by the inap- we have decided to focus on the role of changing glob- algration value haschain increased (GVC) participation significantly obviousin Central in Europe,Central Europe during the build-up of European imbalances. propriate fiscal policy response to greater financial- European imbalances, which were mostly seen as an estmarket attention integration was paid and lowto Southern interest ratesEurope (Jiránková and its interaction between Europe’s competitive North and growingand Hnát wages 2012 accompaniedor Šíma 2016). by In limited general, productivity the great growth and increased borrowing opportunities from East-West component. current account surplus parts of the euro area. This structurallyStructural weaker changes South, of GVCs also in have Europe a significant can be fuelled sovereign debt and increased the expansion- demonstrated by changes in German outward FDIs. ary effects of the common monetary policy (Wyplosz In 1991, 12% of German investments in developed 2010; IMF 2009). OECD countries went to Southern Europe. By 2007, Little or no attention was paid to the fact that after this share had fallen to 7%. Simultaneously, Ger- the Eastern Enlargement, the EU absorbed another man investment stock in Czechia, Hungary, Poland periphery at its Eastern border. Even though its per- and Slovakia reached the same level as the stock in the whole of Southern Europe, despite the fact that of the core-periphery issue in the EU, the very dif- the overall GDP of those Central European coun- ferentsistent structure current account of Central deficits European clearly countries’ made it partcur- tries in 2007 represented only 20% of Southern rent accounts was not seen as an important aspect Europe’s (OECDstat 2018). There has been a grad- for further analysis. Yet, the structure of the most ual GVC shift from Europe’s South to Europe’s East trade-integrated parts of Central Europe shows strik- ing differences from the predominant trend in South- the European imbalances perspective. The aim of this ern Europe’s balance of payments. A positive trend paperwhich isare to both evaluate current the account factors deficitthat co-determined regions from in trade and services balances, which is more than the changes in the geographic structure of GVCs in Europe which reduced GVC income in Southern important trend in the market. The GVC integration of Europe, increased it in Central Europe and contribut- Centraloffset by European ever larger countries profit repatriations, demonstrates reveals a marked an ed to the build-up of account imbalances in Southern difference from the structural and productivity issues Europe. In this paper, Southern Europe (the Southern of Southern Europe. European periphery) will be represented by Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, while Central Europe (the literature on global value chains, which is becoming A similar flaw can be identified in the growing European imbalances and shifts of global value chains 223 an increasingly popular focus for international trade analysis, particularly after Baldwin’s Second Unbun- dependent on manufacturing exports through pro- dling. Such works are largely dedicated to the most ducer-drivenamounts of inward networks FDIs, (Myantcreating anda specific Drahokoupil system developed economies or to the development effects of 2012). International investors mainly utilised a rela- trade and market integration and do not pay enough tively skilled and cheap labour force, the geographic attention to the case of the (relatively) well-developed location, investment subsidies, integration into EU transition economies in Central Europe. Some literature studying the case of Central Europe has emerged, - but most of it focuses on the automotive industry: hokoupilstructures 2012). and relative Central political European stability suppliers (Pavlínek became et increasinglyal. 2009; Pavlínek integrated and Ženka into European 2016; Myant value and chains, Dra Humphrey et al. 2000; Sturgeon et al. 2008. Other as proven by Domanski and Gwosdz (2009), Jürgens sectorsPavlínek have 2004, only 2018, been 2019; studied Pavlínek selectively, and Ženka like Smith2011; and Krzywdzinski (2009). On the other hand, being et al. (2014) for the apparel industry in Slovakia, or dependent on FDIs, Central European countries are Plank and Staritz (2013); Sass and Szalavets (2014) prone to potential value transfer to the economies for the electronics industry in Hungary. For a compre- from which the capital initially came (Dishinger et. hensive study on industrial upgrading in the region, foreign-owned companies create and capture more Guzik and Micek (2008) compiled country-indus- valueal. 2014). than Accordingthe lower tierto Pavlínek domestic and companies Ženka (2016), in Cen- trysee caseVlčková studies et al. from (2015). the region. These studies offer tral Europe. Actual gains from GVCs in Central Europe valuable data which supports our hypothesis that therefore need to be empirically examined. there has been a major structural shift between the On the one hand empirical research clearly shows - - cant consequences for today’s Europe. ities in the pre- and post-crisis eras, but on the oth- twoGiven current the account generally peripheries high proportion resulting in signifiof the erthat it theredemonstrates have been that significant GVCs and shifts global in production GVC activ EU’s share in Central Europe’s trade and investment, remain regionally concentrated. Both statements lead to the suggestion that there might be a major shift in must have had effects in Europe’s other periphery, i.e. how European companies organise their cross-bor- a significant increase in the region’s GVC participation der production in Europe, possibly explaining at European trade integration. Changing gains from least some of the current account developments and GVCsSouthern and currentEurope, accountwhich has position so far between benefitted the from two competitiveness shifts. As claimed by Degain, Meng, peripheries indicate a more important structural shift Wang (2017: 45) “cross-border production shar- in EU trade integration, this has mostly been neglecting activities of complex GVCs increased every year” ed due to a predominant focus on the euro and its before the 2000-01 period. “And there was a dramatic institutional weaknesses. To reveal such a structural expansion of GVCs, especially those with complex pro- shift, our analysis will connect economic growth with duction-sharing activities” between 2003 and 2008. trade integration in GVCs to show which growth fac- That being said, key theorist of global value chains, Richard Baldwin (2014), links his Second Unbundling with the prevailing regionalisation of the global econ- tors influenced the changing GVC patterns the most. omy: “The world economy is not global; it remains 2. Literature review regionally segregated, such as Factory Asia, Factory Europe, and Factory North America. What matters Offshoring and internationalisation of production, is not value (added) but jobs, especially good jobs.” which was related to the technological progress and Within Europe, the Eastern enlargement has played overall liberalisation of the world economy, contribut- a major role since, according to Degain, Meng, Wang ed to the so-called slicing up of the value chain (Dick- (2017: 61), “Eastern European countries have devel- en 2015). This has been described as global supply/ oped intensive bilateral trade linkages in industrial inputs with other European countries. Joining the EU (Porter 1985) or global production networks (Coe et and adopting its regulations have been conducive to al.commodity 2008). In chains this paper, (Gereffi we use1994), GVC global income value data chains from the development of these ties within European GVCs. Timmer et al. (2013) and we therefore follow the Czechia, Hungary and Poland, the largest players in concept of GVCs. Value creation in GVCs is crucial for intraregional trade in manufacturing inputs among economic growth (Coe et al. 2008). As the costs and European economies, accounted for more than 11% of intra-Europe exports in intermediate goods in 2006), the objective of countries is to improve their 2015, a share that has more than quadrupled since positionsbenefits of in trade GVCs are(Henderson distributed et al. unevenly 2002; Humphrey (Baldwin 1995.” There is already literature proving that Ger- and Schmitz 2002), which makes GVCs a dynamic many in particular, has gradually weakened its trade system. ties with Southern Europe in favour of Central Europe Since the beginning of its economic transition, (Simonazzi et al. 2013). Similar conclusions were also drawn by the German Bundesbank (2011). Pavlinek

Central Europe has consistently attracted significant 224 Pavel Hnát, Ondřej Sankot

(2019) proves in a study on the automotive industry that there is any positive effect of upstream participa- that geographic restructuring in the industry has been tion. As most of the countries included in this analy- taking place since the late 1990s. While automotive sis demonstrated higher backward GVC participation production in France, Italy and Portugal is decreas- rates in 1995 and 2009 (table 1), GVC income will be ing, production in the so-called integrated periphery, considered as positively affecting the current account including Central Europe, is gradually increasing. balance of an economy. This trend is explained by the labour cost advan- - ship between GVC participation (especially backward) Chiappini (2012). For Germany, the Eastern enlarge- andThe current ECB (2017) account also or affirms trade balance. that there Nevertheless, is a relation menttage (Pavlínek,was an opportunity 2019), which to outsource is supported low-skilled also by - processes abroad, import the necessary inputs from ticipating more in GVCs demonstrate larger current the justification is slightly different. Economies par- the mid-skilled processes on domestic soil (Coricelli cits) resulting from the increased competitiveness of Central European cost-efficient economies and keep domesticaccount surpluses producers. (or The smaller higher current competitiveness account defi of production in Germany contributed to the sharp fall companies actively participating in GVCs is caused by inand German Wörgötter unit 2012). labour Keeping costs, increasing only the final the stagescompet of- stronger competition in the global markets. Several itiveness of the German industry (Marin 2010) and - sion (Walker 1989). Apart from lower labour costs, andempirical Wei 2009; studies Winkler confirm 2010; the positiveCrino 2008). impact The of relaGVC- contributing to more efficient corporate labour divi- tiveparticipation increase of on domestic firm-level competitiveness productivity tends(e.g. Amiti to be ity to large markets, membership in regional trade only temporary. In order to distribute increased con- agreements,Pavlinek (2018) and also investment identifies incentives geographic as proximCentral sumption over time, domestic savings increase, which Europe’s key assets. contributes to an improvement in the external trade In contrast, Italian companies inclined to the delo- position. calisation of entire production processes to Southeast Institutional setup proved to be important for Europe (German Bundesbank 2011) leave much less the participation of an economy in GVCs, according scope for increasing GVC income in Southern Europe. to Dollar et al. (2016). These researchers argue that In this context, understanding a country’s current par- countries demonstrating better institutional qual- ticipation in value chains is central to ensuring that its ity tend to have higher forward GVC participation, industrial and trade policies can facilitate sustainable while countries with weaker institutions usually productivity gains and increased quality employment. evince higher backward participation. Institutions This paper follows on from Brumm et al. (2016), one of the few studies evaluating the effects of par- - ticipation in global value chains on current account lightingare therefore the importance able to influence of institutions, international especially trade. imbalances. Brumm et al. (2016) came to the con- concerningSturgeon et the al. labour(2008b) market, confirm to thethis distribution idea by high of clusion that economies which demonstrate higher GVC participation also exhibit larger current account summarise the effects of economic institutions on surpluses, as the positive effect on trade balance sur- comparativeautomotive value advantages chains. ofNunn states, and paying Trefler particu (2014)- passes the negative impact on the balance of primary lar attention to institutions regulating contractu- incomes. This is true especially for backward partic- al arrangements among trading parties. In GVCs, ipation, which affects current account balance much suppliers produce highly customised products that more than forward participation. The positive effect have higher value only for the anticipated purchaser. Should the contracts not be consistently enforced, Haltmaier (2015), who, however, rejects the notion the purchaser would be motivated to renegotiate the of downstream participation is also confirmed by Tab. 1 GVC backward / forward participation indexes. has already invested in its production. The supplier herebycontract faces to increase a hold-up its own problem benefit (Williamson after the supplier 1985), 1995 2009 which can be reduced by high-quality contractual Czechia 32.1 / 19.4 39.4 / 23.0 institutions, e.g. property rights and investor protec- Hungary 26.6 / 15.2 39.9 / 16.7 tion (Lavchenko 2006). As a result, economies with higher institutional quality demonstrate a high level Poland 15.4 / 17.5 27.9 / 20.5 - Slovakia 35.6 / 20.7 44.3 / 17.9 Greece 13.2 / 17.6 23.1 / 19.9 themof relation-specific “contract-intensive”. investments. According Nunn to (2007) Nunn, iden con- Italy 21.9 / 16.8 20.1 / 21.7 tracttified intensive the most sectors relation-specific include, among industries, others, calling automotive, computer equipment, telecommunications Portugal 28.9 / 15.3 32.4 / 19.0 equipment and engines, which are among the most Spain 20.6 / 19.7 20.7 / 21.1 exported articles from Central Europe (Sankot and Source: OECD.stat (2018)

Hnát 2015). Nunn’s findings at the firm-level are European imbalances and shifts of global value chains 225

Tab. 2 Real GVC income (as a % of GDP).

Feenstra et al. (2012). Apart from contract enforcing 1995 2008 2011 Difference (95–11) confirmed by Ma et al. (2010), Li et al. (2012) and Czechia 0.104 0.195 0.182 −0.078 markets also affects the comparative advantage of aninstitutions, economy. Accordingthe regulation to Beck of labour (2002), and an economyfinancial Hungary 0.120 0.195 0.194 −0.074 Poland 0.132 0.190 0.158 −0.025 advantage in manufacturing. Becker et al. (2012) Slovakia 0.108 0.196 0.168 −0.060 with a developed financial market has a comparative- Greece 0.097 0.092 0.088 −0.009 Spain 0.136 0.116 0.110 −0.025 (2012)prove that argues high that fixed countries costs in export-orientedwith highly protective indus Italy 0.155 0.160 0.141 −0.014 labourtries require markets well demonstrate developed financial comparative markets. advan Tang- Portugal 0.131 0.113 0.102 −0.029 Source: Timmer et al. (2013), UNCTADstat (2018) marketstage in goods demonstrate intensive comparative in firm-specific advantage skills. Onin industriesthe other hand, that arecountries more volatile with more (Cunat flexible and Melitz,labour In 1995, the difference between Southern and Cen- tral Europe, in terms of relative real GVC income, was of2012). the labour Pavlínek market 2002, determines 2018; Aláez, spatial Gil and distribution Ullibarri European economies rose markedly, while the income of2015 the confirmautomotive in their industry. sectoral As thestudy articles that flexibilityexported ofnot Southern significant. European Until 2008, countries the GVC stagnated income of(Italy Central and from Central Europe (e.g. electronic components or Greece), or even decreased (Spain and Portugal). Dur- ing the initial years of the sovereign debt crisis, GVC Cunat and Melitz (2012), lower regulation will be income in all Southern European economies dropped consideredindustrial machinery) a positive attribute, are classified promoting as volatile a GVC shift by below the 1995 level, while GVC income in Central towards Central Europe. European countries remained well above the 1995 benchmark. In terms of real GVC income, Central European economies gained ground, while Southern 3. Empirical background European economies lost ground. Decreasing relative GVC income implies lower importance of interna- It must be noted that the research outline is mark- tional labour division for economic growth and the higher importance of domestic factors, e.g. house- numerous attempts at linking economic growth with hold and government consumption, which should be GVCedly trends,influenced measuring by data valueavailability. added Sinceand value there cap are- tured by an individual economy is a major challenge. reflected on the current account. The current account- (2015), consistent data on GVCs are still rare. Most also incorporates profit repatriation, which in Central reliableAs claimed datasets by Amador can be and newly Cabral obtained (2013) from or Vlčková sever- (UNCTADstatEurope between 2017). 1995 This and would 2008 increasedconceal the significant change in al input-output models (OECD TiVA, WIOD, UNCTAD positionly and pulled of Central all current European accounts countries down within into deficit GVCs. Eora, or GTAP) but, currently, they do not offer the Therefore, solely balances of trade will be taken into most recent years. This is another reason why our account. focus is on the build-up stage of the crisis (using the mid-1990s and 2011 as critical years) in our attempt Tab. 3 Balance of trade (% of GDP). to reveal a structural change in Europe’s GVCs. Country 1995 2008 2011 Difference (95–11) In this paper, data for real GVC income are taken Czechia −0.057 −0.020 0.047 −0.105 from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), based on Timmer et al. (2013). Timmer et al. (2013) calcu- Hungary −0.056 −0.003 0.070 −0.126 lated real GVC income for all manufactures produced Poland −0.043 −0.072 −0.041 −0.002 Slovakia −0.010 −0.029 0.000 −0.009 Table 2 depicts real income from GVCs in economies Greece −0.108 −0.187 −0.117 −0.008 inof selectedthe two countries,EU peripheral using areas the US in CPI1995, as a2008 deflator. and Spain −0.026 −0.085 −0.047 −0.021 2011. The time selection is dependent on very limit- Italy −0.024 −0.008 −0.016 −0.039 ed data availability. Nevertheless, the period between 1995 and 2011 represents quite well the time frame Portugal −0.083 −0.142 −0.095 −0.012 during which European imbalances emerged and Source: UNCTADstat (2018). increased, as well as the initial period of the Europe- an sovereign debt crisis, which had a strong impact on Table 3 depicts the development of trade balance the structurally weak economies in Southern Europe. for selected economies. Between 1995 and 2008 trade balances improved only in Czechia and Hunga- among economies of different sizes, real GVC income ry. The deterioration of trade balances in Poland and isIn normalisedorder to ensure by real the GDP. comparability of these figures Slovakia were, nonetheless, lower when compared 226 Pavel Hnát, Ondřej Sankot to Spain, Portugal and Greece. Until 2011, trade balances deteriorated below the 1995 level in all South- Southern European economies. ern European economies, while in Central European income and trade deficit, the opposite holds for all economies, trade balance improved, albeit with very limited improvement in Poland and Slovakia. 4. Data sources, results and robustness When analysing the relation between balance of trade and income from global value chains, it is neces- The motivation of TNCs to move production to sary to bear in mind the possible built-in bias of both post-socialist Central Europe was, apart from its geo- approaches that might cause analytical discrepancies. graphic location, caused by the local low-cost but Balance of trade is measured using standard indica- skilled labour (Jürgens and Krzywdzinski 2009; Pav- tors of international trade (neglecting the origin of the value added), while income from global value chains is therefore takes into account not only the institutional measured using advanced decomposition techniques setuplínek 2019;but also Chiappini the local 2012). labour Thecosts. following analysis tracing value added of labour and capital needed for To estimate determinants of structural changes of GVCs in Europe, we employ an OLS linear regression, which is widely used in GVC empirical studies, bigthe picture,production not ofaiming final manufacturedto provide accurate goods outcomes, (Timmer e.g. Baldwin and Yan (2014). Due to limited GVC data which2013). wouldFor that be reason, provable figure in a 1more focuses advanced rather econoon the- availability, a more advanced analysis of time series metric model. cannot be employed. In the analysis, three explana- A comparison of both groups of countries is shown tory variables are used: labour costs, quality of regu- - latory environment and quality of contract enforcing tive real GVC income between 1995 and 2011 (depict- institutions. edin figurealso in 1. tableThe X-axis 2) while represents the Y-axis the representschange in rela the Labour costs cover the compensation of employees change in trade balance (depicted also in table 3) in plus taxes minus subsidies in the sectors of industry, the same period. construction and services (Eurostat 2018). As wages - demonstrated a dynamic development, especially in tionship between change in relative GVC income Central Europe, average available labour costs in the andBased change on in figure balance 1, weof trade. can observe While the a direct position rela of selected time frame are applied. Quality of institu- Central European economies improved in both GVC tions is evaluated by the Rule of Law multi-criterial

Fig. 1 Change in relative GVC income (x-axis) / change in balance of trade (y-axis) (1995–2011). Source: Timmer et al. (2013), UNCTADstat (2018) European imbalances and shifts of global value chains 227 indicator, compiled by the World Bank (WGI 2017). This measure was developed by Kaufmann et al. and is used as a baseline of the ability to enforce contracts wereto be amoving significant their determinant production as to well. an environmentHowever, the by Nunn (2007) and Lavchenko (2006). Rule of Law withnegative worse coefficient contractual points institutions, to the fact whichthat companies does not index covers a broad range of areas, e.g. property conform with the current theoretical and empirical rights protection, quality of enforcement mechanisms, literature. reliability of police services and judicial independ- A relatively similar result is achieved when the Rule ence. As comparative advantage is, according to Nunn of Law index is replaced by the Corruption Control index (WGI 2017). High levels of bribery and irregular payments are conspicuous signs of weak rule of law. theand multicriterialTrefler (2014), index co-determined of Regulatory by Qualityproduct (WGI and Therefore, the Corruption Control index broadly cov- 2017).financial/labour The regulatory markets quality regulation, index we evaluates also include not ers the essence of weak rule of law and enforcement only the regulatory environment, but also the effects mechanisms in the economy. Meanwhile, the multicri- of trade policy or tax policy on the domestic business terial Control of Corruption index consists of different environment. Rule of Law and Regulatory Quality input variables from the Rule of Law index, focusing indices are compiled from multiple sources, mainly on all kinds of irregular payments. surveys of independent providers (e.g. Gallup World In order to further test the robustness of the Poll), business information providers (e.g. Economist Intelligence Unit), NGOs (e.g. Freedom House) and public sector organisations (EBRD Transition Report). periodresults, of we severe limit theeconomic examined crisis. period The Europeanto 1995–2008. debt The explained variable, i.e. the structural chang- crisisBy neglecting particularly the hit years Southern 2009–2011, Europe weand omit affected the es in GVCs, is measured by the difference in real GVC both real GVC income as well as real GDP. Moreo- income (per unit of GDP) between 1995 and 2011, as ver, we replace the variables of the World Bank with depicted in table 2. Economies included in the anal- indicators provided by the World Economic Forum ysis are, for Southern Europe, Greece, Italy, Spain (WEF). WEF uses data gathered independently, using and Portugal, while Central Europe is represented by its own surveys among executives worldwide. We Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The estimat- apply the ‘Institutions’ index as a substitute for the ed impact of selected variables on real GVC income is ‘Rule of Law’ index and the ‘Goods Market Regulation’ depicted in table 4. index replaces ‘Regulatory Quality’. The ‘Institution’ index evaluates the quality of both formal and infor- Tab. 4 Impact of labour costs, regulatory quality and rule of law on mal institutions, i.e. the quality of state administra- GVC shift (1995–2011). tion, protection of natural rights and also the ethical Coefficient - Variable (Standard error) cy’ index evaluates, among other things, how easy it is −0.003 ** tostandards start a business, of companies. rules Theon FDIs, ‘Goods or Marketwhat the Efficien effects Labour costs (0.001) of taxation are. Table 5 summarises the impact of the 0.134 *** amended variables on real GVC income (per unit of Regulatory Quality (0.026) GDP) between 1995 and 2008. −0.079 ** Rule of Law (0.029) Tab. 5 Impact of labour costs, goods market regulation and institutional quality on GVC shift (1995–2008). Sources: Eurostat (2018), WGI (2017) ** stands for p-value lower than 0.05, Coefficient Variable *** stands for p-value lower than 0.01 (Standard error) −0.004 ** Labour costs - (0.001) - 0.085 *** Goods market regulation ulatoryRegression quality analysis on the GVC confirms shift tothe Central statistically European sig (0.015) countries.nificant impact Adj. ofR-sq. lower of labourthe model costs is and equal higher to 0.86. reg −0.074 *** Institutions TNCs were attracted by labour costs, which were on (0.017) average, during the selected period, more than 55% Sources: Eurostat (2018), WEF (2009) lower in Central Europe than in Southern Europe. In ** stands for p-value lower than 0.05, addition, all Central European countries demonstrat- *** stands for p-value lower than 0.01 ed better regulatory quality than Southern European economies (with the exception of Spain). This also are comparable with the original model (table 4), the GVC shift towards Central Europe, denoting TNCs Outcomes of the modified regression in table 5 proved to be a statistically significant determinant of more liberal Central Europe. So far, the outcomes are Europeadj. R-sq. increased of the modified despite themodel lower is equal quality to of0.92. domes The- infleeing line with from the the available overregulated literature. South Rule to of the law slightly proved ticmodified institutions. model confirmsThis, however, that GVC did income not discourage in Central 228 Pavel Hnát, Ondřej Sankot

TNCs from moving their production eastwards, main- This is in accordance with other authors who ly because of the prospects of EU membership. The have focused predominantly on increasing unit EU’s Eastern enlargement managed to guarantee the - necessary institutional standards. Moreover, regula- pean imbalances. In a broader sense, soaring labour tory quality in Central European countries improved costslabour in costs Southern as a significantEurope together determinant with the for Eastern Euro between 1996 and 2008 (WGI 2017). Furthermore, it has to be added that the results into the European Common Market. These factors hold only for selected Central European countries, i.e. underminedenlargement broughtthe existing more comparative cost-efficient advantages competitors in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Once different Southern European countries. Higher value-added countries (Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania or Romania) are production remained in the EU core, which exhibits higher total factor productivity. Simultaneously, lower of labour costs or rule of law disappears. The reason mightincorporated be twofold. in the First, model, a less the skilled statistical labour significance force and new EU member states in Central Europe, leaving - Southernvalue-added Europe production dependent moved on to domesticmore cost-efficient demand. pensated for by the decrease in labour costs. Alterna- Subsequent changes in current account positions tively,greater the geographic trade-off distancebetween arelabour not costssufficiently and quality com were further underpinned by soaring government of contractual institutions is only limited and TNCs are expenditures and liquidity, initially through the mis- ready to accept a decrease in rule of law only to a cer- allocated investments of high-savings countries and - later through the euro area’s liquidity distribution tutional quality (e.g. in Bulgaria and Romania) could mechanism, the TARGET2 system. nottain be extent. offset, In even the latterby substantially case, significantly lower labour lower costs.insti As regulatory quality proved to be one of the contributors to the GVC shift from Southern to Central Europe, the push for the liberalisation of product 5. Limitations, conclusions and discussion

This empirical study demonstrates several limita- and labour markets in deficit-prone Southern Europe- tions. Apart from the general drawbacks related to citsseems in Southern to be justified. Europe During almost the disappeared. years following However, the overall GVC data and their application, as discussed asEuropean Jirankova sovereign et al. (2015) debt crisis,demonstrate, current thisaccount was defipre- above, scholars are divided on the issue of how to dominantly due to a dramatic decrease in consump- measure soft variables like institutional quality. They tion in Southern European countries, i.e. due to the also question whether the current data on institutions income adjustment mechanism of the balance of pay- are relevant and generally applicable in econometric ments. This means that the preconditions for Europe- models, e.g. see Glaeser et al. (2004) or Voigt (2009) for details. As there is an overwhelming consensus Even though this approach might provide a short- that institutions matter, we employ the available and toan medium-termimbalances have solution, not yet itbeen would sufficiently not address tackled. the broadly used indicators, despite the ongoing academ- issue of relatively lower competitiveness in Southern ic discussion (e.g. Kaufmann et al. 2009 vs. Thomas Europe when compared to Central Europe. Southern 2009). Moreover, the limited amount of countries European countries have approved some measures to taken into account might reduce the statistical pow- address their relatively lower competitiveness result- er of the regression models. However, the number of ing from the unfavourable productivity-wages ratio. Southern European EU member states is factually giv- Such measures include reduced non-wage labour en and results for other Central and Southeast Euro- pean countries are discussed above. management in Portugal and increased space for With the limitations taken into account, the fol- costs in Greece, increased flexibility of working time- - tracts in Spain and Italy (Buti and Turrini 2012). es in GVC real income between 1995 and 2011 indi- firm-levelDespite bargaining the actions to taken derogate recently, from sectoralcountries con in catelowing a shift conclusions of GVC-related can be production drawn. Significant from Southern chang Southern Europe are still lagging behind in terms Europe towards Central Europe. While Central of macroeconomic competitiveness, and not only European countries demonstrated improvement in behind the EU’s core but also behind Czechia (WEF GVC-related real income, income in Southern Europe- 2017). One of the major weaknesses of Southern an countries diminished or stagnated. In this article, Europe, besides the macroeconomic environment, balances of both Central and Southern European from the redirection of private cross-border capital countries.we argue that Therefore, such a shiftthis wasshift reflected was also in one the of trade the is its financial market development, which suffers contributors to the growing current account imbal- effect of European imbalances. Should Southern ances in the EU during the build-up to the European Europeanflows towards economies surplus boost countries, their productivity,i.e. from a direct they sovereign debt crisis. In this article, we identify total will have to attract foreign investments and private labour costs together with regulatory quality as reasons for the shift. capital flows again. More robust financial markets would also accelerate and increase the benefits of European imbalances and shifts of global value chains 229 conducted structural reforms. Completing the bank- Acknowledgements ing union would increase the trustworthiness of the labour markets as well as improving the institutional project No. F2/65/2019. environmentfinancial sector. are Further other preconditions deregulation toof restoregoods andthe This research was financially supported by the IGA attractiveness of Southern Europe for foreign investors. Foreign investments will later induce increased References GVC income and, subsequently, also drive current account adjustment, which will not be based upon limited internal consumption. plants in Spain during the great recession. In: Foreign Aláez,investment R., Gil, C., in Ullibarri, eastern andM. (2015): southern FDI Europe in the automotiveafter 2008: the GVC shift eastwards. However, this has to be Still a lever of growth? ed. B. 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Quantitative mapping of desertification risk using the modified MEDALUS model: a case study in the Mazayejan Plain, Southwest Iran Reza Zakerinejad1 , Masoud Masoudi2, *

1 University of Isfahan , Faculty of Geographical and planning, Iran 2 Shiraz University, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, Iran * Correspondence author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT This paper presents the Modified MEDALUS (MMEDALUS) approach, a quantitative assessment of desertification, in the case study area located in the Southern part of Iran. Six main factors of desertification including: soil, climate, plant cover, management, erosion state and ground water situation were considered for the model approach. Then several sub-factors determining the quality of each main factor were quantified according to their quality and weighted on a scale between 1.0 and 2.0. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) software to analyze and prepare the spatial distribution of the factor layers. Subsequently, the final -deser tification hazard map was prepared by combining the different MEDALUS factors in Arc GIS 10.3 in order to define the final hazard classes on the basis of hazard scores based on the geometric mean of the main factors. The MEDALUS and MMEDALUS models show the “Desertification Potential” that in turn was validated with the current state of desertification observed in the field. The results show that the applied MMEDALUS approach yield significantly better results than the MEDALUS model in the study area. The results also show that the areas under severe and very severe hazard are the most extensive classes in the desertification map. Thus, we illustrate that most of the study area is sensitive to desertification. However, we highlight that management, climate and water table qualities were the most important indicators affecting the desertification processes, while soil quality seems to play a minor role in our study area.

KEYWORDS desertification; assessment; MEDALUS; MMEDALUS

Received: 28 August 2019 Accepted: 21 September 2019 Published online: 20 December 2019

Zakerinejad, R., Masoudi, M. (2019): Quantitative mapping of desertification risk using the modified MEDALUS model: a case study in the Mazayejan Plain, Southwest Iran. AUC Geographica 54(2), 232–239 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.20

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). Quantitative mapping of desertification risk 233

1. Introduction - den, Oldeman 1997) and LADA (Ponce Hernandez, - Assessment of Soil Degradation – ASSOD (Van Lyn- mental and socioeconomic problem (Taddese 2001; oped for the Iranian conditions is the Iranian Model LandMiao et degradation al. 2015). Drylands is a significant (arid, semi-arid, global environ and dry Koohafkan 2004). Another model specifically devel- sub-humid areas) cover approximately 40% of the posed by the Iranian Forests and Rangeland Organiza- Earth’s surface (Deichmann et al. 2018) that are more tionof Desertification (Ahmadi 2007; Potential Masoudi, Assessment Zakerinejad (IMDPA) 2010). Thispro sensitive to degradation (Zakerinejad et al. 2018). - cation, namely, climate, geology-geomorphology, soil, climate change and human activity in arid, semi-ar- vegetationmodel considers cover, nineagriculture, criteria water,or aspects erosion of desertifi (includ- id,Desertification and dry sub-humid refers to areas land degradation(UNCCD 2014). caused In the by ing wind and water erosion), social-economics, - radation resulting from various factors, including cli- - maticearly 1990s, variations desertification and human was activities’ defined (UNEP as ‘land 1992). deg catorstechnology are used of urban by the development model (Masoudi, for finding Zakerinejad areas It is a prolonged type of land degradation which in 2011).with higher An alternative hazard of degradation.model especially In total developed 35 indi space and time converts the productive ecosystem to and applied in several parts of the Mediterranean is a fragile one by two crucial factors, namely, climate and negative human activity. (Shoba, Ramakrishnan regions that are environmentally sensitive to deser- the MEDALUS (Kosmas et al. 1999) which identifies is closely related to environmental factors such as quality layers (factors) including soil, climate, vegeta- climate,2016). The soil character characteristics, and intensity vegetation of desertification cover, and tion,tification and management.processes. The After model assessing evaluates these the factors main or quality layers, the Environmental Sensitivity Index socio-economic factors, since human’s behavior and morphology. Desertification is also strongly linked to- ESI is a composite indicator that can be used to get ence the evolution of numerous environmental char- (ESI) is defined by combining the four quality layers. acteristics.their social Theand Unitedeconomic Nations actions Environmental can greatly influ Pro- at a certain point in the landscape. Since the model gram (UNEP) estimates that 69% of the world’s arid wasinsights often into applied the factors in Mediterranean causing desertification regions it is alsorisk lands, excluding the very arid deserts, are under appropriate to be applied in the Iranian conditions moderate to severe hazard of land degradation (arid and semiarid regions). So, all the data consid- (Dregne 1991). This type of land degradation seriously threatens agriculture, natural resources and were prepared in a geographical information system the environment (Lal 1998; Yang et al. 2003; Feng (GIS),ering and the overlay MEDALUS in accordance (Modified with MEDALUS) the developed layers et al. 2010; Fleskens, Stringer 2014; Zakerinejad et algorithm which took the geometric mean to compile al. 2018). Especially areas with arid and semi-arid cli- The main aim of this study is the assessment of the to cope with and mitigate the effects of soil erosion maps of desertification intensity. mates are affected due to a lack of financial resources- study area using the MMEDALUS model. Moreover, erinejad, Märker 2015; Masoudi, Jokar 2017). Deser- wemost compare important the factors MMEDALUS affecting model desertification with the original in the and desertification (Zakerinejad, Märker 2014; Zak model (MEDALUS) and evaluate both with the current between the 1930s and 1960s in Iran. Iran having an aridtification to semi-arid was recognized climate aswith a severe low precipitation problem already and purpose, the Mazayejan (MZY) plain, located in South- high evaporation rates compared to world averages ernstate part of desertification of Iran, for which observed enough in data the were field. available For this shows a high vulnerability to land degradation and has been chosen.

- rimentaldesertification. impacts In onthe agricultural last decades productivity over 20 per andcent on of 2. Materials and methods ecologicalthe country function is exposed (Zehtabian, to desertification. Jafari 2002; It Eliassonhas det et al. 2003; Amiraslani, Dragovich 2009; Pan and Li 2.1 Study area 2013). The study area is located in the MZY plain, in the land degradation assessment have been applied. TheRecently, FAO/UNEP several (1984) methods introduces of desertification the “Provisional and shownFars province in Figure in the1 is Southernpart of the parts Zagros of Iran Mountains. (54°34′ Methodology for Assessment and Mapping of Deser- Theto 54°44′ Zagros E andmountain 27°59′ rangeto 28°5′ from N). theThe north-west study area along the west to south-eastern parts of Iran. Is highest peak reaching nearly 5000 meters. The study tification Hazard” which evaluates the main factors area covers an ca 20,000 ha and is drained by the landaffecting degradation desertification in arid andprocesses. semi-arid This regions. method Some was MZY river. According to the national topography map otherthe first important major apporach models that are was Global developed Assessment to assess of (1 : 25,000; Iranian Cartographic Center 1994) the elevation is ranging from 693 m a.s.l. to a maximum

Soil Degradation – GLASSOD (Oldeman et al. 1991), 234 Reza Zakerinejad, Masoud Masoudi

Fig. 1 Study area: MZY plain in Fars province Southwestern Iran.

altitude of 1,371 m a.s.l. The annual average rainfall ecological aspects are not sustainable for a particular is around 243 mm with a high inter-annual variabil- landuse (Basso et al. 2004). ity characterized by very dry summer months (June The data for this study such as the information on to September), followed by short period of heavy soils, climate and vegetation cover were collected in rainfall from December till March. Soil erosion as one of the most import types of land degradation and related reports published by the different depart- mentsthe field, of thefrom Ministries maps and of fromJahade-Agriculture data available as in well the the pediments of the mountain ranges of this area as by the Meteorological Organization of Iran. The (Zakerinejad,desertification Märtker is occurring 2014; frequently Zakerinejad, especially Märker in MMEDALUS model is differing from the MEDALUS 2015). model since it considers two more factors, namely, the soil erosion state and the ground water situation 2.2 Methodology (Table 1). Moreover, information about the organic matter, soil EC and evapotranspiration were integrat- the reduction of land productivity (Sepehr et al. 2007). ed in the model. Furthermore, we adapted rainfall and Desertification is a complex phenomenon that leads to applied the MEDALUS and MMEDALUS models. The Table 1. Based on this method, 20 entities were iden- keyIn order indicators to assess of the the MEDALUS degree modelof desertification allow to identi we- their hazard scores for specific soil depth as shown in fy the Environmental Sensitivity Areas (ESA). Gener- an individual study unit and the assessment of deser- ally, ESAs represent areas whose socio-economic and tified in the study area. Each entity was considered as

Tab. 1 Classes and assigned weighing indices for the various parameters usedtification for the wasassessment conducted of soil quality for all (a), of climate them. quality (b), vegetation quality (c), land management quality (d), erosion state quality (e), ground water state quality (f). a. Soil quality index in the model

Slope (%) Drainage Soil Depth(cm) EC (mmhos/cm) Description Idex Description Index Description Index Description Index <6 1 well drained 1 >75 1 4> 1 6–18 1.2 imperfectly drained 1.2 75–30 1.2 4–80 1.2 18–35 1.5 Poorly drained 2 15–30 1.6 8–16 1.4 >35 2 <15 2 16–32 1.6 32–64 1.8 >64 2 Texture Organic matter (%) Stone fragment cover (%) Description Index Index Index L, SCL, SL 1 >3 1 >60 1 LS, CL 2–3 1.2 SC, SiL, SiCL 1.2 0.5–1 1.7 20–60 1.3 Si, C, SiC 1.6 <0.5 2 <20 2 S 2 Quantitative mapping of desertification risk 235

b. Climate quality index in the model

Rainfall (mm) Aridity index (P/ETp) Evapotranspiration (mm) Description Index Description Index Description Index >300 1 AI ≥ 1 1 <1500 1 150–300 1.5 0.1 < AI < 1 1.5 1500–2000 1.5 <150 2 AI ≤ 0.1 2 >2000 2 c. Vegetation quality index in the model

Fire risk Erosion protection Drought resistance Plant cover Type of Vegetation Types of Plant cover Index Index Index Index vegetation types vegetation (%) gardens, gardens, bare land 1 evergreen 1 evergreen 1 >35 1 rangelands rangelands annual agricultural rangelands, rangelands, crops, 1.5 permanent 1.3 permanent 1.3 10–35 1 cereals, grasslands grasslands grassland, shrubland annual annual gardens, agricultural agricultural evergreen 2 crops, cereals, 1.6 crops, cereals, 1.6 <10 2 rangelands annual annual grasslands grasslands bare land 2 bare land 2 d. Management quality index in the model

Land use Policy enforcement Livestock pressure Type Index Degree of enforcement Index Livestock pressure Index agriculture lands 1 Complete: >75% of the area under protection 1 <1 1 good to moderate rangelands 1.3 Partial: 25–75% of the area under protection 1.5 1–2.5 1.5 poor rangelands 1.6 Incomplete: <25% of the area under protection 2 >2.5 2 bare land 2 e. Erosion state quality index in the model

Water erosion Wind erosion Description Index Description Index very low 1 very low 1 low 1.2 low 1.2 moderate 1.5 moderate 1.5 severe 1.7 severe 1.7 very severe 2 very severe 2 f. Ground water state quality index in the model

EC (mmhos/cm) CL (mg/l) SAR Water Table Depth (cm) Description Index Description Index Description Index Description Index 250> 1 250> 1 10 1 315> 1 0250–7500 1.2 0250–5000 1.2 10–18 1.3 285–315 1.5 0750–2250 1.5 0500–1500 1.5 18–26 1.6 285> 2 2250–5000 1.7 1500–3000 1.7 26 2 5000< 2 3000< 2 236 Reza Zakerinejad, Masoud Masoudi

× erosion based on six quality indicators (climate, soil, vege- protection × drought resistance × vegetation tationThe cover, MMEDALUS management, procedure erosion in thestate first and stageground is Vegetationcover)1/4 Quality Index (VQI) = (fire risk water situation). These six major layers were derived Management Quality Index (MQI) = (land use × policy enforcement × livestock pressure)1/3 Erosion state Quality Index (EQI) = (water erosion × tofrom Table the 1. sub-indicator Subsequently, layers the six that quality reflect layers individual were wind erosion)1/2 conditions attributed to a specific value according Ground Water state Quality Index (WQI) = (CL × EC × layer (Environmentally Sensitive Index-ESI). Table 1 SAR × water table depth)1/4 showscombined the indicatorsto give a single selected desertification and the values sensitivity attributed. These quality layer were then used in the GIS pro- 2.3 Description of ESI to desertification Based on the data obtained from the applied meth- - andcedure 2.0 towas assess used throughoutthe final desertification the model for intensity. the indication intensities in the MZJ plain, the various types A quantitative classification with values between 1.0- andodology subtypes for defining of ESI can the beESI described map to assess as following desertifi in terms of land characteristics and management qual- ofcators minor as sensitivity,well as for theand final value classification “2” was considered of deserti in ity. According to their value, each of the six quality areasfication with intensities. the major Value sensitivity. “1” was Values considered between to 1areas and - ate or low as shown in Tables 2. Finally, all six quality The different quality layers are assessed using the indices (MMEDALUS)were combined were to calculate classified a as single high, index moder of following2 reflect a relativeequations vulnerability. based on geometric means to integrate the individual sub-indicator maps. Finaldesertification Equation severity= (SQI × CQIusing × VQIthe following× MQI × EQI equation: × Soil Quality Index (SQI) = (texture × electrical WQI)1/6 conductivity × rock fragment × depth × slope × drainage × organic matter)1/7 Climate Quality Index (CQI) = (rainfall × aridity × four classes is illustrated in Table 3. evapotranspiration)1/3 The ranges of desertification intensity (ESI), for the

Tab. 2 Classification of six quality criteria used in the MMEDALUS Model and also the percent areas which belong to each class.

Kind of quality criteria Class Kind of quality Range Area (%) 1 High <1.13 0 Soil 2 Moderate 1.13 to 1.45 89.87 3 Low >1.45 10.13 1 High <1.5 0 Climate 2 Moderate 1.5 0 3 Low >1.5 100 1 High 1 to 1.13 0 Vegetation 2 Moderate 1.13 to 1.38 0 3 Low 1.38< 100 1 High 1 to 1.25 0 Management 2 Moderate 1.26 to 1.50 19 3 Low >1.50 81 1 High 1 to 1.25 43.68 Erosion 2 Moderate 1.26 to 1.50 34.72 3 Low >1.50 21.6 1 High 1.2> 0 Ground Water 2 Moderate 1.–-1.38 48.06 3 Low >1.38 51.94

Tab. 3 Classes of desertification intensity and corresponding range of indices (Sepehr et al. 2007).

Qualitative classes Low Moderate Severe Very severe Quantitative classes 1–1.22 1.23–1.37 1.38–1.53 1.54–2 Note: In this research MEDALUS method (Masoudi and Zakerinejad 2010) was done based on its characteristics, too. Quantitative mapping of desertification risk 237

2.4 Testing the Models - In order to evaluate quantitatively the accuracy of tion map based on FAO/UNEP, 1984 is shown in the the obtained maps (MEDALUS and MMEDALUS), the produced for the MZY Plain. The current desertifica derived with the MMEDALUS model shows that most same figures for comparison. The desertification map truthmaps map were was compared prepared to based observed on agricultural desertification pro- ductionintensities conditions. in the field In this(ground research truth). we Theprepare ground the existof the somehow territory isall classified over the as study severe area and and very coincide severe withdesertification areas of greater (84%) human (Figure activity 4). These or severely critical erodareas- on the ratio between current production to potential ed soils and low ground water quality. These critical productionmap of current (FAO/UNEP state of desertification 1984). A low mapped ratio values based areas need management initiatives that can effectively promote a slow regeneration of the landscape as spatial distribution of the productivity ratio was com- paredreflect to increasing the MEDALUS desertification and MMEDALUS intensity. results. Finally the a measure to combat desertification.

3. Results and discussions

We applied the two model approaches as described above to derive the spatial distribution of the deser- the study area has moderate quality soils (89.87% tification intensities. As shown in Table 2, most of by low quality soils (10.13%). High quality soils were notof the documented area) in terms in the of area.desertification Moreover, risk the followedmajority of this area is characterized by low climate quality (100% of the area). This is mainly due to the relative low amount of precipitation occurring in the area and the high bioclimatic aridity index. All the different types of vegetation growing in the study area are characterized as low quality (100%). Additionally, the majority of this area is described by low land management quality (81%) especially in grazing areas. Most of the area shows a high erosion quality (43.68% of the area). Furthermore, the majority of this area is characterized by low ground water quality (51.94% of the area). The results also show that management, climate and ground water quality were the most impor- soil quality seems to be less important in the study areatant indicators(Figure 2). affecting desertification process while Based on the above describe methodology different desertification maps (Figure 3) have been

Fig. 2 Average of hazard degrees of main criteria used in the Fig. 3 Different desertification maps used for MEDALUS, MMEDALUS Model. MMEDALUS models and current desertification map. 238 Reza Zakerinejad, Masoud Masoudi

4. Conclusion In this study, MEDALUS and MMEDALUS models were mapped in the MZJ area. This MEDALUS model approach was adjusted to develop a regional model that could be adapted to the south and south west of Iran. The results obtained show that most of the area

groundcan be classifiedtruth map as of havingagricultural severe productivity and very severe ratio. Especiallydesertification the MMEDALUS susceptibility model in accordance shows a good with accu the- racy with the ground truth map and hence, outper- forms the MEDALUS model. The results also show Fig. 4 Percent areas under hazard classes of desertification that management, climate and ground water quality in the MZY Plain using MMEDALUS model. were the most important indicators affecting deser-

important indicators. The current state of the envi- maps with the agricultural productivity ratio (current ronmentaltification process conditions while is soil caused quality by theseems arid to climate, be less In order to compare the different desertification unproper management and also by the deterioration illustrated in Table 4, there is an inverse correlation of the ground water. This highlights that particularly desertification map), we use a correlation matrix. As human activities play an important role in acceler- meansbetween by current decreasing desertification the ratio of map current and production the risk of improvement of the MEDALUS approach by taking desertification detected by MMEDALUS (0.05 level). It intoating account desertification the groundwater process in and the soil study erosion area. state The increasing. While, there is no correlation between the (MMEDALUS) generally allows for a better assess- to potential production the risk of desertification is by MEDALUS in the study area. The ‘ratio of current However, in future studies we will focused on the productionreduction of to production potential production’and the risk ofhas desertification been used to integrationment of the of desertification data related to statuswater and of a soil landscape. salinity. describe the current state of land degradation in the In addition, considering some quantitative map of soil - erosion may be useful for a further improvement of tion assessment such as FAO/UNEP, GLASSOD and ASSOD.different In models both ASSOD of land and degradation GLASSOD or models, desertifica local experts assess the relative impact of a given amount assessmentdesertification and modelling. monitoring in several developing of a certain type of degradation on the productivity countriesFinally, (e.g.,the limitation southeast of of desertification Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, research of the soil. This kind of assessment seems to be more etc.) is the absence of historical data, including climatic, pedological (soil salinity, organic matter) informa- it is more related to its impact on soil productivity. In tion. Therefore applying simple models driven main- otherrealistic words, in finding the estimates the degree of of ASSOD degradation consider because that ly by remote sensing data and available regional and a given amount of soil erosion is a more serious problem on poor and shallow soil than on a deep and fer- small spatial scales especially in remote areas. tile soil. national data is crucial to evaluate desertification on The developed model (MMEDALUS) attempts to - References tion. The results indicate the the MMEDALUS model outperformsassess and identify the MEDALUS the factors model affecting in the desertificastudy area. Amiraslani, F., Dragovich, D. (2011): Combating Results also revealed that the main reason for the better performance of the MMEDALUS assessment was of changing approaches. Journal of Environmental desertification in Iran over the last 50 years: an overview ground water and erosion criteria). The result agree /j.jenvman.2010.08.012. Basso,Management F., Bove, E., 92(1), Dumontet, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016S., Ferrara, A., Pisante, to define a suitable criteria framework (e.g. adding M., Quaranta, G., Taberner, M. (2000): Evaluating (2007) and Jafari, Bakhshandehmehr (2013). environmental sensitivity at the basin scale through the with other findings such as published by Sepehr et al. Tab. 4 Correlation matrix between current desertification map and MMEDALUS and MEDALUS maps.

MEDALUS MMEDALUS Pearson Correlation −.029 −.185* Ratio of current production to potential production Sig. (2-tailed) −.671 −.033 * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level. Quantitative mapping of desertification risk 239

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Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) focused on the Smrčiny Mountains, the Chebská pánev Basin and the Sokolovská pánev Basin Břetislav Balatka1, Jan Kalvoda1, *, Tereza Steklá1, Petra Štěpančíková2

1 Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Czechia 2 Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Department of Neotectonics and Thermochronology, Czechia * Corresponding author: [email protected]

ABSTRACT The Eger (Ohře) River terraces originated in varied morphotectonic and climate-morphogenetic conditions that existed during the late Cenozoic evolution of the western part of the Bohemian Massif. In the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Sokolovská pánev Basin, these levels of the Eger River terrace system were identified (Table 1): the Pliocene terrace niveau B, the Cheb terrace (I), the Hradiště terrace (II), the Chvoječná terrace (III), Jindřichov terrace (IV), Nebanice terrace (V), Chocovice terrace (VI), Chotíkov Terrace (VII) and the recent flood plain (N). It was determined to be a morphostratigraphical system of 7 river terraces of Quaternary age. Older levels of fluvial sediments, occupying a still higher morphological position in the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Sokolovská pánev Basin, have been classified to the Pliocene. A comparison of terrace flights in the longitudinal profile of the Eger River between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Doupovské hory Mountains indicated that the Cheb terrace (I) in the Smrčiny Mountains is tectonically uplifted around 10 m in comparison with its level in the Chebská pánev Basin. In the Chlumský práh Horst area, the oldest Pleistocene terraces, which originated during the Tiglian stage, were uplifted by approximately 15 m. The Chebská pánev Basin originated at the intersection of the Eger rift and the Cheb-Domažlice fault zone and its river network is incised ca 40 m into the planation surfaces of the sedimentary basin. Both volcanic processes and frequent seismic activity in the region are associated with the Late Cenozoic tectonic movements. According to the current stratigraphical scheme of the Quaternary, the Eger terrace system was formed mostly by the Pleistocene (Table 2) during the Tiglian to the Weichselian stages.

KEYWORDS river terraces; evolution of the Eger valley; neotectonic movements; Smrčiny Mountains; Chebská pánev Basin; Sokolovská pánev Basin

Received: 7 June 2019 Accepted: 20 November 2019 Published online: 20 December 2019

Balatka, B., Kalvoda, J., Steklá, T., Štěpančíková, P. (2019): Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) focused on the Smrčiny Mountains, the Chebská pánev Basin and the Sokolovská pánev Basin. AUC Geographica 54(2), 240–259 https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.21

© 2019 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 241

1. Introduction During the interpretation of the geomorphological analysis of the Eger River valley landforms, special 1.1 Theme and aims The Eger River has a remarkable position among the streams of the Bohemian Massif because of the varied Primarily,attention was the historical-geneticfocused on the influence relationship of neotectonic between geological structure and palaeogeographical history uplift on the terrace flights in the longitudinal profile. of the whole catchment area. Conspicuous river val- Basin and the corresponding terrace levels in the - the older terrace levels evolved in the Chebská pánev inate in regions of neotectonic activity, combined with - leys, terrace systems and related fluvial deposits orig Bohemian part of the Smrčiny Mountains and in the al. 2015; Balatka and Kalvoda 2018). Geomorpholog- assessed.crystalline Chlumský práh Horst, which is asymmetri specificical research climate-morphogenetic on the Eger valley processes was aimed (Balatka at land et- callyThe extended Eger River in the terraces Mariánské originated Lázně duringfault zone, the varwas- form evolution and morphogenetic evaluation of riv- ied morphotectonic and climate-morphogenetic conditions which existed during the late Cenozoic evolution of the western part of the Bohemian Massif. It is Egerer terraces River terracesand further in the fluvial stratigraphical sediments. Particularsystem of a substantial reason for a discussion about the mor- theattention Quaternary. was paid to the classification of the flight of phostratigraphical correlation of the river terraces in The aim of this research is to discover or verify neighbouring regions with the terrace system along - the middlestudied and area lower of the course Chebská of the pánev Eger Basin River. and its locations of river terraces and other fluvial sediments- videin the their Eger morphogenetic River valley between evaluation the Smrčinyand to suggest Moun 1.2 A brief review of earlier papers theirtains correlationand the Sokolovská with the pánevcurrent Basin stratigraphical (Fig. 1), to claspro- The oldest works about the Eger valley were relat-

les Mountains and the Doupovské hory Mountains sificationexposures of and the aQuaternary. characterisation The field of theresearch landform was (Wilschowitzed to the Sokolovská 1917; Danzer pánev 1922; Basin, Peter the Slavkovský1923). The focusedevolution on in a the documentation Eger River valley of the and fluvial the surround sediment- ing area (Balatka and Kalvoda 2018). This geomor- addressed only by Engelmann (1920), who identi- Eger River terraces in the Chebská pánev Basin were Eger terrace system in the assessment of the range of thephological Quaternary research tectonic confirmed movements, the importance especially ofin the fied 5 terraces, whose relative surface heights above - the valley floor reached 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m and 30 m. He also correlated the highest terrace flights area of the Chlumský práh Horst. The geomorpholog in the Chebská pánev Basin with fluvial gravel in- ofical the analysis river terracesof the fluvial from landscape the German in the border Eger in River the the Sokolovská pánev Basin at the relative height of valley enabled a creation of the longitudinal profile However,50–70 m and this with incorrect the Eger interpretation terrace A in the would lower imply val thatley of the the oldest Bílina terrace River at of the Eger relative would height have ofa distinct 170 m. Mountains.Smrčiny Mountains through Citice in the Sokolovská divergence of 140 m in the upstream direction, which pánev Basin to Vojkovice in the Doupovské hory

Fig. 1 Geographical position of the Eger (Ohře) valley between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Sokolovská pánev Basin. 242 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková is unrealistic. The studied area is also presented in Peter (1923), which describes 6 Eger River terraces of the river terrace levels applying a method based on theThe reconstruction acquired data of werethe terrace used for levels the classificationin the longi-

25between m as QuaternaryKynšperk nad terraces, Ohří and while Karlovy those Vary. at the J. Peter rel- identifiedative height the of levels 125 atm, the 100 relative m and height 75 m ofas 50Pliocene m and tudinal and transverse valley profiles. This complex- terraces and the levels at the relative height of 175 m method was already used by Q. Záruba in his work on as terraces of Upper Miocene age. Nevertheless, the the terrace system of the Vltava River (Záruba-Pfef higher terrace levels at the relative height of 75 m to fermann 1943; Záruba et al. 1977). The relics of the 175 m presented by Peter (1923) are in fact denuda- riverEger Riverlevel wasfluvial measured accumulations in November were recorded 1949 with in the an tional plateaux and relics of local planation surfaces. averagelongitudinal daily profile,discharge whose of 7.32 topographic m3 s in Citice base (Vodo of the- −1 1950). The reconstruction of the terrace levels in the tookComplex place in geological the second research half of the of the 20th Chebská century, pánev pro- hospodářská kancelář ministerstva techniky v Praze Basin and parts of the Sokolovská pánev Basin, which Thislongitudinal method profile of characterising was based on the the terracemethodological system vided further substantial knowledge (Ambrož et al. buildsapproach on thecalled assumption the equilibrium that the profile palaeo-thalweg (Krejčí 1939). and 1958; Vrba 1959, 1981; Ambrož 1960; A. Kopecký the surfaces of each major terrace level maintained 1960, 1966; Mazáč and Pokorný 1961; Kolářová 1965; stable gradients that correspond to the longitudinal Šantrůček et al. 1969, 1994). Ambrož et al. (1958) - reportedpresented only 10 7 terrace terrace levels levels in in the the Chebskásame area, pánev the Basin, whereas A. Kopecký (in Šantrůček et al. 1969) reducedprofiles (Balatkaby erosion) et al.and 2015). the base In theof the presented river terrace lon correspondgitudinal profile, to the relics state ofof theequilibrium original ofsurface the valley (not highest terraceone at the level relative with higher height locations of 30–35 above m above the - basinthe Eger (relative valley height floor. Thisof 65 author m) and also in the correlated area of forthe- charge does not erode nor accumulate, so the only processfloor evolution. that takes It meansplace is that a transport a stream of of carried certain mate dis- current position was explained by the young tectonic movements.mer Chlum nad Ohří (relative height of 85 m). Their tectonic movements, changes in the discharge regime According to geological maps of the studied area rial. This state may be disturbed – as a consequence of or in that of net accumulation. andThe sediment regional supply research – in was the essentiallydirection of conducted net erosion in Pleistocene(Škvor and age.Satran The et complex al. 1974; studies Mlčoch of the et Egeral. 1993; river accordance with the current state of the stratigraphi- Müller et al. 1998), Eger fluvial sediments are of cal division of the Quaternary (e.g. Gibbard and Cohen - 2008; Gibbard et al. 2010). Previously used names of vialterraces gravel-sand in the Chebská more accurately. pánev Basin This are provided presented petro by- glacial periods in the Quaternary are presented in this Kvačekgraphic (1987, and granulometric 1989), who defined analysis the of thelocalities terrace of sed flu- work only as a mandatory referential statement on iments and documented them by several transverse - mulation according to older publications. theThe timing geomorphological of the occurrence record of certain of the fluvial Eger valleyaccu profiles. Five terrace levels, the highest one in relative - theheight older of concepts17–25 m, mentioned were distinguished above. Older in this publica way.- turbed by the current character of settlement and by tionsTheir concerningstratigraphical with classification the terrace wassystem derived along from the anevolution intensive and economical its river terraces exploitation was significantly of the area. disFor lower course of the Eger River are cited especially in the third chapter. byexample, anthropogenic the fluvial activity. relief Numerousof the western locations part of the riverSokolovská terraces pánev were Basindestroyed was bycompletely brown coal degraded mining. 2. Methods on the Paleogene sediments and crystalline rocks. Geomorphological analysis of landforms was per- WasteTherefore, areas the of fluvialthe river sediments terraces were of the preserved Middle Pleis only- formed in focus on the palaeogeographical history of the studied region. Field works resulted in a detailed tocene age were extracted in the Chebská pánev Basin - and the Mostecká pánev Basin. descriptiontation. It especially of the identified concerns localitieswith a construction with relics of 3. Key morphological patterns fluvial sediments and in a set of graphical documen- of the Eger valley aEger geomorphic valley. Geomorphological sketch map, cross research profiles was and also a com sup- portedplex longitudinal by an evaluation profile ofof datathe riverpresented terraces in earlier in the Mountains. The river enters Czechia at the river km 263 The(measured source offrom the Egerthe Eger River River is situated mouth in theto the Smrčiny Elbe regional papers about the fluvial accumulations. Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 243

Fig. 2 Western side of the Chebská pánev Basin (in a view from the north to the south) with mildly incised Eger valley and upper part of the Skalka dam. In the background the Smrčiny Mountains are seen. Photo: Petra Štěpančíková

crystalline complex of the Krušné hory Mountains and the Eger rift, Tertiary sediments and neoid volcanics River). It reaches the Františkolázeňská kotlina Basin near the mouth of the Libský potok Brook in the rocks of the Thuringen-Vogtland are represented by south-western corner of the Chebská pánev Basin quartz-mica(Maheľ et al. schist,1984). phylliticIn the studied mica area,schist the with Paleozoic quartz of(50°23′ the Krušné N, 12°21′ hory E). Fault Then and to thethe subsequentconfluence withDolnoo the- layers, Cheb phyllite of Cambric and Ordovician age Elbe, the Eger River follows the significant depression and biotite granite of Late Paleozoic age (Škvor and zone of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin at the base Satran et al. 1975; Müller et al. 1998). The Eger valley harská tabule Plateau in the tectonically subsided- - pied the lowest parts of three basins situated at the baseof České of the středohoří Krušné Hory Mountains. Mountains, The whileEger River simultane occu- builtand its by surrounding porphyric biotite area in granite the Hazlovská and biotite pahorkati horn- ously epigenetically eroded the neovolcanics in the stone.na Hills Phyllite (west of and Františkolázeňská mica schist with kotlina layers ofBasin) Vildšte are-

Mountains as well as the uprising crystalline plate Doupovské hory Mountains and the České středohoří jn Formation protrude between Bříza and Hradiště - quartz-mica(north-west ofschists Cheb). and The white bedrock mica of schists, the Chebská which nally,of the the Chlumský Eger River práh followed Horst betweenthe Krušné the hory Chebská fault pánev Basin sediments is largely built by graywacke pánev Basin and the Sokolovská pánev Basin. Origi part of Eger valley leading to Hlavno. River was situated in the place of the present-day alsoTwo surfaced depressions in the Chlumskýof the Eger práh Rift Horstwere andcreated in the in in its full length, since the confluence with the Elbe - erÚstí currently nad Labem reaches until the302 Middle km with Pleistocene a catchment (Balatka area the studied area, namely Chebská pánev Basin and- ofand 5 Sládek614 km 1962,2 1976). The length of the Eger Riv ternarySokolovská age pánev(Fig. 2). Basin. Eocene Chebská clays, pánev sand Basinand gravel is filled of - by lacustrine and fluvial sediment of Eocene and Qua er antecedent. valleyThe confluence and fault gap, with which the Elbecuts throughRiver is crystalline complex and granitoids, which were affect- situated near Litoměřice, which is before the Elbe Riv the Starý Sedlec Formation fill the depressions of the The Eger catchment belongs to the Saxo-Thurin- Formation is mostly of Oligocene age. The upper part gicum,the neovolcanics which is a of part the ofČeské the Bohemianstředohoří Massif Mountains. built ofed theseby fossil layers weathering. contains volcanogenic The younger sediments Nový Sedlec and mostly by the metamorphosed rocks and Variscan - 1979). The Sokolov Formation was formed in the phosed Paleozoic rocks of the Thuringen-Vogtland, the Lowerlava bodies Miocene. of olivineIts middle basalts part contains (Ambrož a 1958;brown Václcoal granitoids (Chlupáč et al. 2002). It includes metamor 244 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

Fig. 3 Landscape in the south-western part of the Chebská pánev Basin in a view from the Zelená Hora Mountain. Afforested ridges of the Slavkovský les Mountains (in the background) are delimited by fault- and denudation slopes along the Mariánské Lázně fault zone. Photo: Petra Štěpančíková seam, which can be several tens of meters thick. The thickness of the upper part of the Sokolov Formation namely 0.85 ± 0.1 Ma up to 0.26 ± 0.05 Ma (Šibrava reaches up to 170 m (Cypris Formation) and it is built confirmed by radiometric dating of its volcanic rocks, mostly by bitumen clays and sandstones. et al. 1998). - and Havlíček 1980) and 0.45–0.90 Ma (Wagner-

It consistsThe Chebská of the pánevTertiary Basin sediments, is situated whose on thethickness cross Basin,The since Sokolovská they used pánev to beBasin connected. has undergone In its longitu a simi- ings of the Eger rift and the Cheb-Domažlice graben. lar morphostructural evolution as the Chebská pánev by many faults of several tectonic systems, such as reaches up to 400 m and it is significantly disrupted- dal direction, the Sokolovská pánev Basin is enclosed by the significant fault-slopes of the Krušné hory EarthquakeKrušné hory epicentres system, Sudety are closely system, connected Český les to systhis EgerMountains Rift. Separation (Krušné ofhory these Fault) basins and was Slavkovský caused by theles area,tem and which Jizera is systemthe most (Václ seismically 1979; Dobeš active et al.region 1986). of Mountains (Eger fault), which define the edges of the the Bohemian Massif (Babuška et al. 2010). The west- Neogene uplift of the Chlumský práh Horst. Thus, the Chebská pánev Basin was occupied by the paleo-lake ern boundary between the Chlumský práh Horst and in the Pliocene, while the Sokolovská pánev Basin was rangeChebská of thepánev Cenozoic Basin tectonicis created movements by the fault-slope along the Staréno longer Sedlo occupied Formation by it. Theas well surface as byof thethe Sokolovská neovolca- of Mariánské Lázně fault zone (Fig. 3). The vertical pánev Basin is also built by the oldest sediments of

Mariánské Lázně fault, namely the subsidence of the nic rocks (L. Kopecký 1978, 1985; Malkovský 1979, 1976,Chebská 1979). pánev The Basin analysis and of the the uplift neotectonic of the Chlumský evolution outcrops1980). Conspicuously of kaolinically varied weathered relief granitoidof the Sokolovská bedrock. práh Horst, is assumed to be 300–400 m (Malkovský pánev Basin was caused by the numerous tectonic andof the Quaternary Chebská pánev tectonic Basin movements. by Peterek et al. (2011) epigeneticIn the northern and antecedent edge of the canyon. Slavovský les Mountains confirmed the significant role of the Upper Pliocene- (between Loket and Doubí), the Eger River created an vial sedimentation of the clay, sand and gravel of the VildštejnIn the ChebskáFormation pánev took Basin, place the in lacustrine the Pliocene and andflu 4. Terrace system of the Eger River

One Pliocene terrace of niveau B and 7 terrace levels etthe al. Lower (1985), Pleistocene the prevailing (4.5–1.5 climate Ma, ofŠpičáková the last lacus et al.- of the Quaternary age (Fig. 4) were discovered by the trine2000). sedimentation According to showsthe paleoflora the transition analysis between by Bůžek the geomorphological analysis of the Eger River valley as well as by the evaluation of the previous research data and by the reconstruction method, which was warm temperate (mean annual temperature 12–14 °C) used to assess the terrace system. The morphostrati- and cold temperate climatic zone (6–7 °C). A diatreme (503with pipem), whichfilling nearis built Podhrad by the originated pyroclastic in rocksthe Upper and 1 and 2, Figures 5 and 6) was based on the parallel effusionPliocene. of The melilitic younger olivine parts nephelinite, of the Komorní are ofhůrka Pleisto Hill- naturegraphical with classification the terrace of system the river of terracesthe middle (Tables and involvedcene age (L.in Kopeckýthis study. 1978; The Shrbený Quaternary 1982; Gottsmannage of the lower Eger (Balatka and Sládek 1976; Balatka 1993; 1999), and are the same age as the fluvial sediments studiedTyráček area1995; with Tyráček the Quaternary-geological et al. 1985, 2004) and system also on the correlation of the fluvial accumulations in the youngest active phases of the Komorní hůrka Hill was Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 245

Fig. 4 Geomorphological sketch map of the Eger River terraces between the Smrčiny Mountains and the western part of the Sokolovská pánev Basin.

- However, it is presently hidden under the surface of the Skalka dam. The narrow erosion valley that was (e.g.Balatka Ambrož et al. et2010a,b, al. 1958; 2015). Šantrůček et al. 1994; Balat created by the Eger River immediately above Cheb is ka Theand dependenceKalvoda 2008; of theTyráček terrace and system Havlíček structure 2009; on the morphotectonic and lithological conditions of - ca 85 m deep. On the other hand, the Eger River flows ly observed on the Eger River valley landforms. Since Basinthrough between a wide Cheb shallow (river valley km ca with 240) extensive and the mouth flood the area,Pliocene, through the whichEger River the river valley flows, has can been be evolvclear- ofplain the and Libava meandering River (river channel km 216.8). in the ThisChebská part pánevof the ing in various kinds of relief, such as lowland, basin, - upland, highland or mountain type of relief. Neotectonic processes of the studied area took depositsEger valley (Fig. is incised3) and also 30–40 into m the into Vildštejn the planation Formation sur place in the Neogene and the Pleistocene, which was offace Pliocene of the oldest and Lower terrace, Pleistocene into that ofage. the other fluvial proven by the tectonic deformation of the Upper Plio-

- Between the mouth of the Libava River and Černý- cene – Lower Pleistocene Vildštejn Formation as well Mlýn (river km 209.2), the Eger River cuts into the as by the structure and flights of the older terrace lev Thiscrystalline epigenetic complex and ofantecedent the Chlumský valley práh intersects Horst cre the els in the Eger River longitudal profile (Fig. 7). ating a deep (ca 85–155 m) and asymmetrical valley. potokThe Brook Eger River and the flows vicinity through of Citicethe studied in the area length from of 60the km state (between border riverbetween km 266the mouthand 206), of thewhile Hraniční cross- morphologically significant zone of the Mariánské- ing three geomorphological areas of the Krušné hory Lázně fault in the wider vicinity of Kynšperk nad Ohří. Near Černý Mlýn, the Eger River reaches the low Basin.er relief In of the the studied Tertiary part sediments of the Eger of thevalley Sokolovská between sub-province: the Smrčiny Mountains, the Chebská- thepánev river Basin, km 265 namely and 148 the (compareunit of the Figures Svatavská 1, 4 and pánev 7), pánev Basin and the Sokolovská pánev Basin. The Eger the relics of Pliocene terrace of niveau B and heter- River enters the rugged relief of the Smrčiny Moun ogenous group of the Quaternary terraces were iden- tains between the Hraniční potok Brook and the Libský Inpotok this Brook area, in the the Eger Hazlovská River vrchovina created a Hills valley (Balatka with the Eger River valley and morphostratigraphical clas- and Kalvoda 2006; Demek and Mackovčin et al. 2006). tified and documented. Their vertical distribution in a wide floodplain and meandering channel (Fig. 2). sification is elaborated in Tables 1 and 2. 246 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

Fig. 5 Cross sections of the Eger valley and fluvial deposits between river km 254.65 and 231.50 (No. 1–5). Locations see in Fig. 4. Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 247

Fig. 6 Cross sections of the Eger valley and fluvial deposits between river km 224.80 and 210.20 (No. 6–10). Locations see in Fig. 4. 248 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

Fig. 7 A longitudinal profile of the Eger River terraces between the Smrčiny Mountains and the Doupovské hory Mountains.

4.1 The Pliocene terrace niveau B boulders. A larger block of quartzite (2.0 × 1.2 × 0.3 m) Several small localities of the oldest and the locally was also found, as well as the crystalline bedrock that was uncovered in the 3m deep exposure. This locali- - highest terrace niveau B were identified. Its name and Basinstratigraphical at the foot classification of the Doupovské in the horyPliocene Mountains corre ty is situated at 495–500 m a.s.l., which corresponds spond with the terrace niveau B in the Mostecká pánev 1989)with the consist relative of aheight 1.5m thickof 83–88 layer m of above sandy the (loess?) Eger of the terrace niveau B (in the direction against the loamRiver. covering The excavation a 1.5 m thick described layer of by clay Kvaček gravel, (1987, which (Balatka and Sládek 1976). The two highest localities was situated on the top of the clay regolith of the crystalline complex. The sediments discovered in this Eger River flow) are situated near Dolní Hraničná. The location are alluvial rather than terrace sediments village.first one The was relic found of onthe the 2 m right high valley terrace slope gravel in Dolní cov- and were probably accumulated by the Libava River. Hraničná and the second one is 500 m east of the same ers the moderately angled slope at 492–498 m a.s.l.- Šantrůček et al. (1994) presented these sediments (56–61 m above the former Eger River level, Fig. 8). sameas “the sediments fluvial sand (with gravel a question of the Upper mark) Pliocene originated age”, in Mlčoch et al. (1993) and Müller et al. (1998) classi thewhile Donau Kvaček glacial (1987, stage, 1989) so that was they of the are opinion of Pleistocene that the andfied theseby the gravel sediments localities of the to Vildštejnthe Günz. Formation. The bedrock of age. However, if it really was the oldest Pleistocene ter- theAnother fluvial sediments locality isof formed the niveau by quartz-mica B was found schists in

therace small (I), it wouldaccumulation have been of upliftedgravel located by ca 50 m above during the smallChlumský moderately práh Horst, angled north-east platform of the consists road from of leftthe Quaternary.slope of the According Libava River to Šantrůček valley at et 480 al. (1994),m a.s.l. quartz-micaKynšperk nad schist Ohří tobedrock, the Libava which River is coveredvalley. This by (relative height of ca 70 m) and an even smaller coarse sub-angular gravel and sharp-edged fragments of quartz, quartzite, phthanite and brownstone ofgravel Upper accumulation Pliocene age. ca 1 km south-west of Šabina at 475–480 m a.s.l. (relative height of 70–75 m) are also (15–30 cm) with sporadic appearance of well rolled Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 249

Table 1 Vertical distribution of Neogene fluvial sediments and Quaternary terraces (surface/base in metres above river bed) in the Eger River valley, Czechia.

Neogene Chebská Chlumský práh Mostecká pánev Mostecká pánev Doupovské hory Bílina River Elbe River sediments pánev Basin Horst Balatka Basin Basin (Žatec area) Mountains (Hostomice area) (Ústí nad Labem area) and river Balatka et al. et al. (western part) Balatka and Balatka (1993) Balatka (1995) Balatka (1995) terraces (this paper) (this paper) Balatka (1993) Sládek (1976)

A – – 116/110 197/190

B – 88/~83 122/125 –

I1 124/118 I1 138/128 I 43/~38 61/58 67/63 71/65 I2 116/107 I3 79/77 I2 119/115 I3 103/96

II1 96/90 II1 58/53 II1 64/58 II 35/30 48/~45 II2 89/84 II1 72/65 II2 93/77 II2 50/47 II2 62/58 II3 83/79

III1 41/– III1 70/63 III1 55/53 III1 78/58 III 25/19 30/~24 III 47/43 III2 36/33 III2 66/59 III2 43/36 III2 70/58

IV1 60/56 IV1 40/36 IV2 55/51 IV1 27/23 IV1 29/24 IV1 51/42 IV 21/14 26/~20 IV2 39/34 IV3 51/45 IV2 21/18 IV2 22/– IV5 20/15 IV4 48/45 IV5 17/10 IV5 45/41 V 17/9 V 37/30 V ( 10/– V 38/23 V 13/6 13/6 15/– 1 1 1 ~ 1 V2 14/9 V2 33/30 V2 5/−2 V2 33/23

VI1 26/20 VI1 12/6 VI2 23/17 VI1 20/12 VI 6/~0 7/3 7/0 VI2 8/1 VI1 3/−6 VI3 20/15 VI2 16/11 VI3 5/1 VI4 17/12

VII1 14/10 VII VII1 8/−4 3.5/−3 ~4/−4 – – VII2 8/2 – VII2 4/−14 VII3 6/2 N 1.5/−3 1.5/−4 2/−5 2–3/−4 3/−3 flood plain

Therefore, the sediment relics of the oldest terrace clasts. The highest situated accumulation of the ter- niveau B were preserved only in the morphostruc- - terracerace niveau niveau B in B thethat area was offormed the Chlumský on the sedimentary práh Horst upliftedtural zones during of the the Smrčiny Upper Cenozoic. Mountains The and locations the crys of rocksis located of the ca Vildštejn 25–30 m Formation. above the highest levels of the talline Chlumský práh Horst offsets, which have been their surface at 61 m above the river level are almost 4.2 The Quaternary terraces atthe the terrace same levelniveau as Bthe in highest the Smrčiny location Mountains of the Vildšte with- The Eger River has formed only sporadic and small jn Formation in the surrounding area. The surface of the terrace niveau B is ca 10 m higher than the surface the other hand, it has created large and continuous- of the oldest Quaternary terrace (Cheb terrace, I) and terrace sediments in the Smrčiny Mountains. On also ca 10 m higher than the highest planation surface In the tectonically uplifted morphostructure of the ly developed terraces in the Chebská pánev Basin. around the Eger River valley. The top of the Pleistocene - of the Vildštejn Formation in the Chebská pánev Basin cantChlumský increase práh of itsHorst, relative the heightsrare relics in comparison of the higher to (and therefore older) terrace levels exhibit a signifi volcano Komorní hůrka Hill is situated slightly higher- cantthan areathe surface of the terrace of the terraceniveau B.niveau Besides B (503 m the already a.s.l., those of the Chebská pánev Basin. Geomorphological describedFig. 9). The location Chlumský of the práh highest Horst level is another with its surfacesignifi alonganalysis with of the the previously Eger River published valley fluvial data, were landscape, used to at 88 m above the river level (Fig. 10), many other assessusing the the reconstruction terrace system method with these in the levels valley (Figures profiles, 4, preserved here. The surface of these relics is up to - small accumulations of these fluvial sediments were race7 and V Table (Nebanice), 1): Terrace Terrace I (Cheb), VI (Chocovice), Terrace II Terrace(Hradiště), VII consists of a coarse clay gravel with imperfectly rolled Terrace III (Chvoječná), Terrace IV (Jindřichov), Ter 20 m lower than the highest levels and their body (Chotíkov) and N (recent flood plain). 250 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

Fig. 8 Graphical scheme of successive incision of the river during the Eger valley evolution in the Smrčiny Mountains and the Františkolázeňská kotlina Basin (the section between river km 257–251).

Fig. 9 Graphical scheme of successive incision of the river during the Fig. 10 Graphical scheme of successive incision of the river during Eger valley evolution in the western part of the Chebská pánev Basin the evolution of Eger valley in the Chlumský práh Horst (river km 245–237). Explanations see in Fig. 8. (river km 218.5–209.7). Explanations see in Fig. 8. Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 251

Terrace I (Cheb) strongly weathered phylites, mica schists and gneiss, quartz and ferric sandstone and conglomerate were - found it the 3 m deep sand pit. Assuming the contin- In the Chebská pahorkatina Hills (which is a part of - 490the Smrčiny m contour Mountains), line (thus ata small49 m aboveslightly the angled Eger River plat form west of Hraničná with its surface close to the uous flight of the Eger River terraces in its equilibri - umPresented longitudinal locations profile, this of Terraceaccumulation I including of gravel the is level) was classified as Terrace I (Fig. 8). This relic of locatedalluvial 15–20gravel mof abovethe same the Terracelevel are I level.situated almost the gravel is 2 m thick (Ambrož et al. 1958) and it cov at the same altitude as the planation surface of the ers the sediments of the Vildštejn Formation. Mlčoch locationet al. (1993) of Terrace classified I was these found sediments near the to railwaythe Günz. sta In- Lower Pleistocene). The accumulation of Terrace the western part of the Chebská pánev Basin, another- IVildštejn sediments Formation probably occurred sediments after (Upper the retreat Pliocene of the – Pliocene-Lower Pleistocene paleo-lake. Therefore, tion, on the platform located at 470–472 m a.s.l. (rel ative height of 41–42 m), which was also classified to- the Pleistocene (Table 2). According to Škvor and the günz by Šantrůček et al. (1994). This terrace level Satranthis Cheb et al.Terrace (1974), is classifiedthese accumulations to the Tiglian outside stage of also includes 5 m high gravel on the significant plat - accumulationsform north-west of of gravel Potočiště are atsituated 460–463 at mthe a.s.l., Terrace thus at 40–43 m above the river. Furthermore, two small the Chebská pánev Basin (using the then stratigraphi- whose bedrock consists of the Vildštejn Formation cal classification) are of Günz – Donau age. A. Kopecký Isediments. level near the Hlínová and Dobříš at 455–459 m a.s.l., (in Šantrůček et al. 1969) classified the highest ter gravelrace accumulations accumulations east on theof Chebleft bank to the of theold EgerDonau Riv –- location 1 km south-east of Dasnice with its surface at eroldest between Günz. CiticeIn the andSokolovská Svatava pánevwith their Basin, surface the sand at In the Chlumský práh Horst area, a small dorsal with sub-angular boulders and fragments of quartz, 469 m a.s.l. is classified as Terrace I. Coarse clay sand 455–460 m a.s.l., thus in a slightly lower position (ca 5 m) than the accumulation near Dasnice, are Table 2 Morphostratigraphy of terrace deposits of the Eger River (the Chebská pánev Basin and neighbouring regions) and their correlation with fluvial sediments in the middle and lower located sections of the Eger valley up to the Elbe River confluence area.

EGER EGER European stratigraphical EGER ELBE Chebská pánev Basin and Doupovské hory stage divisions of the Mostecká pánev Basin Ústí nad Labem area neighbouring regions Mountains (Balatka, 1993) Quaternary (Gibbard and (Tyráček 1995, 2001; (Balatka 1995; Balatka and (Balatka and Kalvoda and Mostecká pánev Basin Cohen 2008; Gibbard et Tyráček et al. 2004; Kalvoda 1995; Kalvoda and 2018; Balatka et al., this (Balatka and Sládek 1976; al. 2010) Tyráček and Havlíček 2009) Balatka 1995) paper) Balatka 1995) Holocene Alluvial deposits Rock bottom and alluvial Thalweg gravel Rock bottom and alluvial Late Pleistocene Chotíkov Terrace (VII) deposits VII3–VII1 deposits Weichselian VII3–VII1 VII2–VII1 0.12 Ma

Middle Pleistocene Saalian Chocovice Terrace (VI) VI4–VI1 VI4–VI1 VI2–VI1 (Warthe, Drenthe) 0.20 Ma

Middle Pleistocene Saalian Nebanice Terrace (V) V2–V1 V2–V1 V2–V1 (Wacken, Fuhne) 0.38 Ma

Middle Pleistocene Jindřichov Terrace (IV) IV5–IV1 IV5–IV3 IV1 Elsterian IV2–IV1 Cromerian 0.78 Ma

Early Pleistocene (Bavelian, Chvoječná Terrace (III) III2–III1 III2 – III1 III2–III1 Menapian, Waalian, II3 Eburonian) 1.78 Ma

Early Pleistocene Tiglian Hradiště Terrace (II) II2–II1 II2–II1 II1 2.58 Ma Cheb Terrace (I) I4–I1 I4–I1 I2–I1 Neogene Pliocene Niveau B Niveau B 5.30 Ma Miocene Niveau A 252 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková presented by Škvor and Satran et al. (1974) also as Terrace I. Nevertheless, they are currently covered by the spoil heaps of the coal mines. smallcrystalline residual complex platform was nearidentified Skalka south-east (461 m) is of cov the- Reslava River and the Eger River confluence. The Terrace II (Hradiště) top of the phyllite eluvium (Rousek, 1960). In the The highest location of Terrace II (in the direction ered by a 1–2 m thick gravel, which is situated on the

Chebská pánev Basin, Terrace III has evolved between against the Eger River flow) was discovered on the the northernsurface of part the of terrace the Hradiště is located area atand 453 the mOdrava a.s.l., thicksmall sandresidual gravel. platform According at 469–472 to the boreholem a.s.l. (up data, to River valley south-east of Loužek (Fig. 9). To the west, theserelative deposits height are of 32situated m), which on the is weathered covered by phyllites 1–4 m (Rousek 1960). The Terrace II has developed contin- at 450–452 m a.s.l. near Chvoječná and its base is at - the438–442 terrace m base. a.s.l. The maximumsurface of thethickness small and of the narrow sand gravel (11–14 m) represents the recessed furrow of- uouslyBasin. Thebetween surface Cheb of Terrace– Hradiště II isand situated the Odrava at 463 Riv m er valley south-east of Loužek in the Chebská pánev locality with a relic of sand gravel near Loužek is situ slopeated at of 446–448 the most m downstreama.s.l. part of the Odrava and its basebase atat 458455 mm a.s.l.a.s.l. near and Hradiště,the surface while of that the RiverNorth valley of Obilná, were excavated the fluvial in sediments the sand onpit, the which left surface of this terrace east of Dolní Dvory is at 460 m - south of Loužek is at 455 m and its base at 450 m a.s.l. sanduncovered gravel, 2–3.5 which m contain thick terracelayers of gravel course sands sand and South and south-west of Chvoječná, the surface of Ter claysand lenses gravel. of These the Vildštejn accumulations Formation. cover Thisfiner-grained sand pit surfacerace II is descends located at slightly 455–460 to them a.s.l. north The and thickness gradually of blendsits gravel with varies the surfacemostly betweenof Terrace 2.5–6 III. m. The terrace part of the currently abandoned sand pit reaches the levelrevealed of Terrace 5–7 m thickIII (max. terrace 448 sediments. m), whereas The the highest predominant parts belong to Terrace IV (max. 440 m). belongTerrace to the II surface Vildštejn was Formation. found at 458–453 On the otherm a.s.l. hand, near Potočiště. According to Kvaček (1987), these sediments sediments is of Mindel age, while the lower parts these locations as the older Mindel. The locality near belongAccording to the to Riss.Kvaček (1987), the main part of these Šantrůček et al. (1994) classified sand gravel found in A few small locations of Terrace III in the form of is the last occurrence of Terrace II in the eastern part alluvial gravel were recorded on the left bank of the Loužek, whose surface is situated at 450–455 m a.s.l., Eger River. These accumulations were presumably deposited by the tributaries of the Eger River. Approx- of the Chebská pánev Basin. Alluvial clayey sand gravel imately 3 m thick gravel sand covers a small residual (2–5 m thick) south of Hartoušov with the surface at 448–452 m a.s.l. corresponds to the level of the Eger al. (1994) sets their origin, as well as that of the close (1987)Terrace mostlyII. The aslocalities of Günz of age.the HradištěWhile according Terrace toin platform at 447.5 m a.s.l. near Tršnice. Šantrůček et the Chebská pánev Basin were presented by Kvaček of Terrace II are of Lower Pleistocene age. tolocations the younger of the Mindel. gravel The sands same south-west authors consider of Doubí the A. KopeckýSand gravel (in Šantrůček 0.5 km etnorth-west al. 1969), theseof Šabina locations at (449 m) and between Třebeň and Lesina (450–447 m),- mulations of Günz age. gravel north-west of Chotíkov to be the alluvial accu 454–450 m a.s.l. (relative height of 48–44 m), which - is presented as of Günz age by Šantrůček et al. (1994), iceIn (max. the Chlumský 453 m) alsopráh has Horst an (Figures alluvial 7 origin. and 10), Clay theis assigned to Terrace II in the area of the Chlumský gravel of the Libocký potok Brook near Horní Pochlov narrowpráh Horst. ridge Quartz on the and right crystalline bank of the gravel Eger (diameterRiver. The in diameter) were found in the 6m deep sand pit of 15–40 cm) 2–3 m in thickness are located on the- southey quartz, of the slate, previously phyllite and mentioned gneiss gravel location. (7–10 The cm ed that the small relic of Terrace II north of Hlavnov narrow ridge above the right bank of the Eger River atgeological 450 m a.s.l. map is in of Šantrůček Günz age. Inet theal. (1994) eastern also part report of the

442north-east m a.s.l. of A thesmall Kynšperk locality ofnad the Ohří gravel is covered accumula by- Chlumský práh Horst, these locations of Terrace II are- the 3 m thick gravel of Terrace III with its surface at situated at 15–20 m higher altitude (Fig. 10) than that categorised into this level. of the (suspected) flight of the equilibrium longitudi tions at 435–440 m a.s.l. near the Černý Mlýn was also nalTerrace profile III (Chvoječná)of the Eger River terraces. Terrace IV (Jindřichov) Terrace III has been exceptionally preserved in the The highest upstream appearance of the Eger at 468 m a.s.l. (relative height of 26 m) containing Reslava River mouth. This denudation relic is situat- fragmentsarea of the and Smrčiny sub-angular Mountains. boulders The ofsmall quartz locality and ed(Jindřichov) on the small Terrace ridge IV at was 456 foundm a.s.l. south-east (relative heightof the Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 253

- ments of the quartz and crystalline complex. A small sand gravel was discovered by numerous boreholes localityof 13 m) ofand this it includes terrace dispersed level (with boulders the erosionaly and frag north-west of Chvoječná. The base of this 5–8 m thick- lowered surface at 456 m a.s.l.) was also found on face, the base of this terrace continuously descends the right bank of the Skalka dam 1 km west-north- toon thethe north west atand 335–330 develops m into a.s.l. lower Similarly Terrace to the VI. surThe

max. 25 cm) mostly of quartz and quartzite was exca- west of Skalka. In the Chebská pánev Basin, Terrace moderately coarse sand gravel (5–12 cm in diameter, IV occupies a large area between Jindřichov and the northwestern vicinity of Chvoječná. The surface of- vated in the former sand pit (4–5 m deep) south-east- this terrace descends from 445–448 m a.s.l. (max. of Jindřichov. The sand gravel was found in the sand relative height of 40 m) to 440–445 m west of Chvo- pit at the north-east edge of Jindřichov. These accumu eter)ječná, withwhere layers its base of was pea located gravel atand 430–435 m coarse sand a.s.l. lations are significantly frost-churned on the surface Moderately coarse sand gravel (5–12 cm in diam weatheredand they also phyllites, contain gneiss frost wedges and sporadic filled withgranites coarser and - gravel (15–20 cm). In addition to the frequent quartz, was uncovered in the 4–5 m deep sand pit south- layer of pellodite, leafy jointed silt and clayey sand patternseast of Jindřichov. (palsas). The upper layers of these fluvi basalts were also represented. The 80–100 cm thick al sediments were significantly churned by frost The surface of the narrow Terrace V north and lower valley of the Odrava River (surface max. 440 m), was also found in this profile. whichThe extends southern to part the ofrock the exposure location nearof the Obilná mentioned at the its decreased north-eastern part reaches the level of Terracenorth-east IV. Onof Loužek the left isbank situated of the at Eger 430 River, m a.s.l., the while large bank of the Eger River, the localities of Terrace IV were sand pit, was also classified as Terrace IV. On the left - gravel-sand plateaux, between the vicinity of Třídvoří found north-west of Lesinka (440–442 m), north of and Vrbová (surface at 435–433 m), was also identi Nebanice (442 m) and Chotíkov (434 m) and north- nearfied as the Terrace north edgeV. Several of Nebanice currently (above abandoned the railway). sand west of Dolní Pochlovice (440 m) above the left bank pits, 2.5–4 m in depth, were established in Terrace V of the Libocký potok Brook. In the eastern part of the Chlumský práh Horst, a denudation relic (up to 1 m) theThese borehole gravel data, sands the were thickness significantly of these churnedterrace sed by- presumablyof small and to partly Terrace sub-angular IV as well. gravelIn the longitudinalnear Černý cryogenic processes (Ambrož 1958). According to Mlýn with its surface at around 430 m a.s.l. belongs theiments discovered varies between localities 1.7–3.8 of Terrace m. The V geological to the young map Horst,profile although of the Eger its River, relics Terraceform (probably) IV does not two show altitude any Mindel,11-14 Cheb while (Šantrůček some of them et al. to 1994) the older classifies Riss. most of levelssignificant at up anomalies to 431 m andin the 425 area m ofa.s.l. the Chlumský práh Terrace VI (Chocovice) Terrace V (Nebanice) - represented by the gravel accumulation on the left In the Smrčiny Mountains, Terrace VI (the surface at Inbank the of area the Egerof the River Smrčiny valley Mountains, above the Reslava Terrace River V is of5–7 a terrace,m above were the Egerlocated River by level)the boreholes was rarely under identi the deluvialfied. A few sediments. accumulations, These which deposits do not are have situated, the form for accumulation is of Riss age. On the right bank of the example, at the river km 258 at 448 m a.s.l. and on Egermouth. River Mlčoch ca 0.5 et kmal. (1993) east of isthe of Reslava the opinion River that mouth, this the right bank of the Skalka dam ca 1.3 km west of the the location of sub-angular boulders and most- village Skalka. Sand gravel, which was located by the ly quartz fragments at 451 m a.s.l. (relative height boreholes in the vicinity of Cheb (for example with the surface at 437.5 m and the base at 432.6 m a.s.l., applies to the denudation relic of the gravel accumu- lationof 6–8 on m) the were coastal classified abrasion as cliff Terrace of the V. Skalka The samedam, current built-up area. Šantrůček et al. 1994) could not be verified due to the- - which was found ca 1 km west-north-west of Podhoří accumulationIn the Chebská near pánev Chocovice, Basin, thus Terrace inside VI the was exten pre- bank(the surface of the Skalka is at 446–447 dam, sand m gravela.s.l., the (quartz, base quartzdiscov- siveserved bow at ofthe the northern Eger River edge valley. of the Its large surface fluvial is locatedterrace ite,ered gneiss, by boreholes basalt) iswas at discovered442–444 m). under On the the abraded deluvi- - er locality of the Chocovice terrace was found north (443 m a.s.l.). at 428–431 m and its base at 426 m a.s.l. An even larg al sediments at ca 3–4 m above the back water level- Nebanice, Terrace VI is represented by the southern served itself on the large area inside the bend of the partof Vokov of the with gravel its surface sand accumulation at 423–427 m located a.s.l. North above of EgerIn Riverthe Chebská valley, whichpánev isBasin, located Terrace east andV has north- pre The surface of the rather extensive Terrace VI local- the railway. Its surface is situated at 425–426 m a.s.l. east of Jindřichov. The surface of this terrace is at 440 m a.s.l. near Jindřichov and at 436–437 m a.s.l. ity near Chotíkov (below the railway, 3 m above the 254 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

River valley at the river km 241 and 239, were also 3 m deep) near the eastern edge of the village, was important for the formation of this gradient step foundedflood plain) in the is at medium 420–423 coarse m a.s.l. to Thecoarse sand sand pit (onlygrav- of the river. quartz and quartzite. not have (according to boreholes) an equilibrium el (5–10 m in diameter), which is built mostly by the The bedrock of the valley floor sediments does of the gravel are located at the level of Terrace VI. The in sediment thickness were discovered. Similarly to In the Chlumský práh Horst, the denudation relics longitudinal profile. Locally, significant differences south-west and west of Chlumek. These accumu- surface is at 415–420 m a.s.l. (base at 409–411 m a.s.l.) the surface of the flood plain, the gradient step of young Mindel age. Scattered gravel at the higher lev- the valley floor bedrock was found below the dam of lationsel (up to are, ca according430 m a.s.l.) to correspondsŠantrůček et to al. the (1994), already of the Skalka Reservoir, i.e. at the entry to the Chebská lowered Terrace VI. Note that the geological map by pánev Basin from the crystalline complex of the Smrčiny Mountains. Another slight increase of the- an unreasonably large area and, moreover, at the alti- calvalley boundary floor sediment of the Vildštejn thickness Formation (about 2 (Upper m) appears Plio- Šantrůček et al. (1994) marks this gravel locality over between the river km 233.5–232, i.e. on the lithologi levels of Terrace IV and V. Formation. tude of 450–433 m. Thus, it should also contain the cene – Lower Pleistocene) and the Miocene Sokolov Terrace VII (Chotíkov) The occurrences of Terrace VII, with its surface not FaultA significant(Vrba 1959), change where of the the thickness valley base of the gradient valley was found in the foreground of the Mariánské Lázně- cent sections. The sand gravel of this location covers whichmore than this terrace 3.5–4 musually above shares the river its base. level, In are numerous closely floor sediments rises up to about 5 m above the adja places,connected the surfaceto the sediments of Terrace VIIof the continuously valley floor, evolves with the tectonic depression in the Miocene accumula- tionsthe sediments of the Cypris of the Formation. Vildštejn The Formation, lowest point which of thefill Vildštejn Formation base is situated at 393 m a.s.l., i.e. into the surface of the flood plain. The longitudinal profile of the Eger River valley demonstrates (Fig. 7) - belowthat Terrace the slope VII follows change the near river Cheb. (and Its flood surface plain) is situonly- iments26 m under creates the a flood distinct plain elevation, surface. which Right causesbefore the in the Chebská pánev Basin, i.e. Terrace VII appears reducedMariánské thickness Lázně fault, of the the sediments base of the (4 valley m), i.e. floor it is sed sit- Particularly, this terrace was located near Chocovice uated ca 3 m under the river level. Further below the withated atits 431–433 surface atm, 428while m its and base its is base at 425–427 at 423 m m a.s.l., a.s.l.

itsMariánské gradient Lázněabove fault,the mentioned the course anomaly. of the EgerThe small River- near Vlkov and Třídvoří (424 m) and near Nebanice- valley floor returns to the level, which correspond to and Chrtíkov with its surface at 418–419 m and its base isat situated414 m a.s.l. at the In the entry Chlumský of the Eger práh River Horst, to the the exten horst er thickness of the valley floor sediments (between sive locality of Terrace VII (surface at 415–417 m) river km 220–211) was found on the most elevated VII surface are locally covered by the relics of the Hol- part of the Chlumský práh Horst. near Dolní Pochlovice. The lowered parts of Terrace plainIn thesurface, foreground creates of a thedepression Mariánské in theLázně overburden fault, the sediments,tectonic trench, which whose reaches floor uplies to 26 8 m m under (Vrba the 1959). flood oceneRecent flood flood clay. plain and valley floor Usually, the thickness of these overburden Holocene of the Eger River is formed by two layers: the lower mostlyThe sedimentary sandy gravel filling and gravelof the sands current of Uppervalley Pleisfloor- andsandy they loam contain and clay granularly sands vary heterogeneous between 1–2 m. sands The tocene age and the overburden mostly sandy loam underlying sediments are 3–5 m thick (Vrba, 1959) and loamy sands of Holocene age. The course of the - with quartz boulders (3–8 cm in diameter) and of the basal coarse gravel (5–12 cm in diameter, up to plainvalley demonstratesfloor bedrock ais change often characterised of its gradient by below a sig Vildštejn25 cm). In sediments between the were two uplifted strands up of tothe 450 Mariánské m a.s.l. nificantly uneven slope ratio. The surface of the flood (relativeLázně fault height (river of km35 m).219.5–217), Considering both that Miocene Terrace and III in the north-western part of Cheb, i.e. approximate- thely at Špitálský the entrance vrch ofHill the (between river to theriver basin. km 242–241) This gra- - dient step of the river, which is being shifted in the ruption,(the surface it can at 442be stated m a.s.l. that in the the area uplift of thetook Chlumský place in upstream direction by back erosion, is lithological- thepráh Lower Horst) Pleistocene. does not show marks of the tectonic dis ly conditioned by the more resistant quartzite mica shists that form the valley slopes up to the north-east- (Fig. 7) is substantially connected to the lithological, tectonicThe longitudinal and geomorphological profile of conditionsthe Eger valley of the studfloor- ied area. The more distinct anomaly of the gradient ern vicinity of Cheb (river km 238–239). Two fault systems with a NW–SE direction, which cut the Eger Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 255 occurs in the incised part of the Eger valley in the 5. Discussion The correlation of the Eger River terraces between Hazlovská vrchovina Hills (Smrčiny Mountains). Here, between river km 266–260, the average gradient of Basin and the terrace system of the middle course of the valley floor reaches 3.33‰. In the area of the the EgerSmrčiny River Mountains valley is based and on the the Sokolovská research made pánev in Františkolázeňská kotlina Basin, between river km the Doupovské hory Mountains (Balatka 1993) and in 258.6–252.6, the average gradient of the valley floor reaches 1.00‰. In the Chebská pahorkatina Hills,- between the vicinity of Bříza and the north-western togetherthe Mostecká with pánev that of Basin the terrace(Balatka system and Sládek of the 1976; low- edge of Cheb (river km ~252.6–240), the average gra Tyráček 1995). The evaluation of these findings, kotlinadient of Basin.the Eger This valley low floor gradient reaches value only corresponds 0.833‰. It is therefore smaller than that of the Františkolázeňská er Eger River course (for example Balatka and Sládek- da1976; 1995; Tyráček Kalvoda 1995, and 2001; Balatka Tyráček 1995) et and al., the2004), central the hereto the before conditions the construction of the significantly of the Skalka meandering Reser- partElbe betweenof the Bohemian Děčín and Massif Hřensko (Balatka (Balatka and and Kalvoda Kalvo voir.channel Between and thethe wideReslava flood River plain, mouth which and evolvedSkalka, 2008, 2010; Balatka et al. 2010a,b, 2015) are used to

- the studied area into the stratigraphical system of the the mean gradient of the floodplain axis is 1.571‰, Quaternarysuggest the classification(Tab. 2). of the Eger River terraces in while1km long the channelsection ofgradient the valley reaches under 0.846‰. the dam A markof the - edly increased gradient of 5.00‰ occurs in the ca ing, only 6 Eger River accumulation terraces have Because of the significant river channel meander meanderingreservoir and river in several level weiris 19 locations. m to 23 km, In the which Chebská cor- and Kalvoda 2018). The relative height of their sur- pánev Basin (river km 240–217), the gradient of the evolved in the Chebská pánev Basin (Fig. 7, Balatka - responds to the mean gradient of 0.826‰. However,- faces reaches up to 25–30 m, while their thickness is the average gradient of the valley (flood plain) axis is intomostly the 4–6 platform m, rarely surface 8–10 of m. the The Vildštejn surface ofFormation, the high 1.58‰. The significant change of the river level gra whichest preserved originated level in (Terrace the Lower II) is Pleistocene. embedded 10–25Presum m- thisdient gradient (1.418‰) decreases occurs inin the the area western of the part Chlumský of the práh Horst (river km 216.8–209.2). Subsequently, Formation corresponds to that of Terrace I in the low- erably, course the stratigraphical or the Eger River classification valley. In comparison of the Vildštejn with SokolovskáMorphostructural pánev Basin characteristics (river km of 209.2–206.6)the valley and the to 1.05‰. analysis of the gradient conditions of the Eger Riv- er level implies, that the increased river level gradient the terrace system of the Sokolovská pánev Basin, the aequivalent 25 m difference terraces in ofthe the case Chebská of Terrace pánev II andBasin a 8are m smaller discharge of the river and also by the more differencesituated at in a significantlythat of Terrace lower V. This level, was namely caused there by the is in the Hazlovská vrchovina Hills was caused by the which are located in the tectonically uplifted area in Horst (Figures 7 and 10). resistant rocks of the Smrčiny Mountains massif,- neotectonic uplift of the asymmetric Chlumský práh - kotlinathe proximity Basin andof the of Chebskáthe subsequent pánev Basin. section The of balthe ingIn the the 10 Sokolovská km long fault pánev gap Basin,in the granodiorite through which of anced gradient conditions of the Františkolázeňská the Eger River flows in the length of 55 km includ of the less erosion resistant rocks. The lithologically river accumulation terraces were discontinuously conditionedChebská pahorkatina section of Hills the correspondincreased river to the level presence gradi- preserved.the Slavkovský The highestles Mountains, terrace levelsthe 10 (up levels to relative of the height of 101 m) have marks of tectonic deformation. - The fold deformations of the Tertiary sediments and ent (ca 5‰ to 1 km) occurs before the entrance to the of the overburden terrace sand gravel were found in basedChebská on pánev the resistant Basin above and Cheb.homogenous The balanced basin gradi sedi- the exposures of the brown coal mines. Their forma- mentsent of the of theEger Cypris river level and inVildštejn the Chebská Formation, pánev Basin,is not tion was most likely caused by the Quaternary tecton- substantially influenced by the river meandering. The ic movements (e.g. L. Kopecký 1978, 1985). Due to the increase of the river level gradient in the Chlumský includesgreater uplift the lacustrine of the northern sediments part covering of the Sokolovská the edge of práh Horst corresponds to the Quaternary uplift of pánev Basin along the Krušné hory fault, which the crystalline block between the Chebská pánev- River channel took a position along the southern edge Basin and Sokolovská pánev Basin at the Mariánské ofthe the granites basin ofin the the Slavkovský Neogene. Onlyles Mountains, small relics the of Eger the Lázně fault. The average gradient of the Eger Riv terraces have been preserved in the deep epigenetic er meandering channel in the Chlumský práh Horst (1.418‰) is similar to the gradient of its flood plain axis in (1.58‰) and above (1.571‰) the Chebská and fault gap valley of the Eger River at 50–58 m and pánev Basin. 40–44 m above the river (Čtyroký 1996). In its middle 256 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

enabled the long-term gradual evolution of the Eger panev Basin in a 39 km long section, which is char- River valley. All of the Eger River terrace levels were course, the Eger River flows through the Mostecká cutting the Doupovské hory Mountains. The river movements and meandering of its channel. These ter- acterised by the deeply incised valley (over 400 m) racespreserved are characterised in the Mostecká by a pánevrelatively Basin low due thickness to the levelerodes gradient the crystalline has a higher bedrock value of in the this neovolcanites. area (2.03‰ difference. In the main accumulation area of the Mos- on Theaverage, Doupovské maximum hory 6.9‰). Mountains Locally, represent the river a alsotec- (3–7 m, locally around 10 m) and by a small vertical tonically active volcanic block of the Eger rift, which has been gradually uplifted since the Lower Miocene al.tecká 2004). pánev These Basin, terraces 24 river were terraces stratigraphically were identified clas- (Balatka and Sládek 1976; Tyráček 1995; Tyráček et horyup to Mountains,the present the(L. KopeckýEger River 1985). valley The was rate created of this Basin,sified intothe surface7 groups of (I–VII),the oldest which terrace correspond level (I1) to is thesit- duringuplift is the estimated Neogene at in 200–300 the zone m. of Inthe the tectonic Doupovské bend uatedmain river at 125 terraces m above of thethe Elbe. Eger InRiver the Mosteckálevel. According pánev - tre of the volcanic massif in a northward direction and Basin, the oldest Terrace I group and presumably even thebetween volcanic the lavabodies, flows, which which face descends away from from the the faultcen Terraceto the paleomagnetic II1 and II2 research in the Mostecká pánev slope of the Krušné hory Mountains in a southward al. 2004). direction (Balatka 1993). In this part of the Eger Riv- are older than 1.64 Ma (Tyráček et er valley, the incomplete river terrace system of the appear in two separate areas: the older levels (group - In the Mostecká pánev Basin, the river terraces

9 levels shows a significant convergence in the direc mostlyI–IV) have smaller-scale evolved on themeander extensive terraces, platforms are outsidelocated thetion level against of Terrace the river VI flowat its (caentry 30 tom theat theDoupovské highest insidethe valley the cut,valley while cut. the In youngerthe downriver levels (groupdirection, V–VII), the horylevels). Mountains Therefore, below the Karlovyriver flows Vary. approximately The surface rel at- ics of the oldest Quaternary Terrace I are situated at prominentterrace levels in showthe case a distinct of the divergenceolder terraces. (10–40 m) In the upstreamin the longitudinal direction, profile. both Thisof the divergence younger isterrace more found71–54 atm 106above m abovethe river. the However, river. its lowest situated surface (near the mouth of the Bystřice River) was the course of the oldest terraces shows a tectonic levelsgroups have (VI, VII)been were joined unified together with as the well. current Therefore, valley In the western part of the Mostecká pánev Basin, thefloor, number while someof terrace of the levels accumulations decreases ofto the17 inolder the highest channel gradient of the Czech section of the Egeruplift river of ca valley15–20 is m connected in the longitudinal to the uplifted profile. block The western part of the Mostecká pánev Basin. In the- - leycentral and partthe older of the terraces basin, the have terrace distinctively groups shorterI–V are ka(horst) 1993). of theThe crystalline distinctive complex fold deformations along the Střezov with directed north-east to the current Bílina River val afault. brachyanticline This gradient shape, reaches which upaffected to 10‰ the Miocene (Balat 1976). The last terrace of this paleogeographical peri- clays and coarse sandy gravel, were found in the sed- odcourse (V1) thanhas the the longest younger course, levels which (Balatka follows and the Sládek, east-

These deformation structures were created mainly by frostiments and of by Terrace the extrusion III and of IV the near underlying the Sřezov clays fault. into ern margin of the Mostecká pánev Basin and enters the terrace sediments during a period of periglacial 37the m) České of Middle středohoří Pleistocene Mountains. age have These been relics preserved of the climate in the Pleistocene, although the neotectonic influvial the abandoned sediments (theriver surface valley connecting at the relative (in the height hang of- movements of the basin bedrock could also play their ing position) the current Eger River valley with that of

The stratigraphical system of the Eger River ter- The valley meanders of the various evolutional role (L. Kopecký 1978, 1985). stagesthe Bílina are River.typical for the Eger River valley in the Mos- - terraceraces in system the Mostecká was made pánev using Basin the terrace was created system byof doned meanders, which have been formed since the Tyráček (1995, 2001). Its correlation with the Elbe Middletecká pánev Pleistocene Basin, suchto the as Holocene. the entrenched In the orwestern aban Balatka 1995) and that of the lower course of the Eger - the lower course of the Bílina River (the older levels, tion is estimated to have begun at the same period as The richly segmented structure of the terrace system thepart formation of the Mostecká of Terrace pánev V1 Basin,. This periodthe meander is character evolu- River (the younger levels, Balatka and Sládek 1976).- ised by intense river meandering, which was caused tem has not been found in any other Czech river val- by the backward erosion progressing through the ley.in the Low-resistant Mostecká pánev incoherent Basin has lacustrine 24 levels. Tertiary Such a sedsys- impulse to the incision of the originally free meanders and clays) together with the tectonic uplift of this area andneovolcanites to the evolution in the Českéof the středohoříentrenched Mountains. meanders wasThe iments of the Severočeská pánev Basin (sands, silts Morphostratigraphy of river terraces in the Eger valley (Czechia) 257 given by the relocation of the Eger River channel from whole Eger valley developed during the Neogene in morphotectonic depressions of extensive fault zones. current position in the subsidence area of the Eger - faultthe eastern zone, containing margin of thethe Mostecká less resistant pánev sediments Basin to itsof Upper Cretaceous age, which took place after the sed- andThe Chebskáits river networkpánev Basin is incised originated ca 40 at m the into intersec plana- imentation of the sandy gravel of Terrace V1. In the tion ofsurfaces the Eger of rift the and sedimentary the Cheb-Domažlice basin. Sedimentary fault zone - processes were slowed-down during the Saal due to mum thickness up to 400 m and these accumulations, eastern part of the Mostecká pánev Basin, the erosion includingmaterial in the the Vildštejn Chebská layers pánev of Basin Pliocene-Pleistocene reached a maxi age, are disturbed by numerous faults. Both vol- wasthe relocation not substantially of the Eger denuded. River into the Dolnooharská canic processes and frequent seismic activity in the pánevAll ofBasin. the older Therefore, Eger River the surface terraces, of theincluding coal beds the region are associated with Late Cenozoic tectonic level V1, movements. valley, whichare directed is also occupiedacross the by Mostecká these terraces pánev Basinin its to the north and northeast towards the Bílina River In the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and - the Sokolovská pánev Basin the terrace system of- 45 km long section heading towards the Elbe valley the Eger River with following levels was identified- inevolved. Ústí nad Their Labem. relative In the height area reachesof the former the level Eger of Riv the (Table 1): the Pliocene terrace niveau B, the Cheb Ter oldester and Terracethe Bílina I1 at River ca 95 confluence, m, while the 15 terrace terraces groups have race (I), the Hradiště Terrace (II), the Chvoječná Ter VI and VII are entirely missing (Balatka 1995). All race (III), Jindřichov Terrace (IV), Nebanice Terrace (V), Chocovice Terrace (VI), Chotíkov Terrace (VII) and River valley, i.e. 15 levels. The surface of the highest enabledthe recent their flood inclusion plain (N). in Geomorphologicalthe current stratigraphical analysis Terrace7 terrace I 1groups is situated were at identified 118 m. Only in the 12 lowerlevels Bílinaof the schemeand reconstruction of the Quaternary. of terraces It flightswas determined of the Eger Riverto be corresponding Elbe terraces have evolved in the vicin- a morphostratigraphical system of 7 river terraces of - - race I1 is situated at 138 m above the river (Tab. 1). iments, occupying a still higher morphological posi- ity Theof Ústí morphostructural nad Labem. The analysis surface of the oldesttectonical Ter- Quaternary age (Table 2). Older levels of fluvial sed ly disrupted terrain of the western headland of the thetion Pliocene. in the area between the Smrčiny Mountains and the fault zone along the south-eastern margin of the the Sokolovská pánev Basin, have been classified to Cretaceous Dolnooharská tabule Plateau, thus in relatively young (presumably Middle Pleistocene) of theA comparison Quaternary of tectonic terrace processesflights in the in the longitudinal region to tectonicMostecká movements. pánev Basin, This proved subsidence the existence of the narrow of the profile of the Eger River (Fig. 7) allowed the range Mountains may be proven by the uplifted relics of of the Eger River to the east. Due to this relocation, be specified. The Quaternary tectonics in the Smrčiny- whichrift depression took place floor during contributed the Middle to Pleistocene, the relocation only terrace groups VI and VII evolved in the lower Eger the first terrace (Fig. 8), namely about 10 m in com- estparison Pleistocene with its terraces level in (I the and Chebská II), which pánev originated Basin Plateau. Their surfaces are situated at 25 m above during(Fig. 9). the In Tiglianthe Chlumský stage, were práh uplifted Horst area,approximate the old- River valley in the Cretaceous Dolnooharská tabule ly about 15 m (Figures 7 and 10). The Terrace III, existence of the tectonically conditioned depression, which is younger than 1.78 Ma, is uplifted about whichthe river affected level. Balatkathe sediment and Sládek basis (1976) of the provedEger River the -

deep2–4 m tectonic in this crystallinedepression horst. of the In valley the western bottom sedifore- valley floor as well as that of the lowest terrace in the mentsland of was the found. Mariánské This depression Lázně fault, is alsoan at incised least into8 m wider area of the Eger River and Elbe confluence. The the Vildštejn Formation. situatedthickness in of a hangingits fluvial position deposits in relationreaches toup the to previ20 m.- The ascertained morphostratigraphy of the river ouslyThe base mentioned of the Eger depression. River valley There, floor the sedimentsdifference inis accumulation terraces of Quaternary age between altitude reaches more than 10 m. - rentthe Smrčiny knowledge Mountains about the and evolution the western of the part valley of andthe 6. Conclusions riverSokolovská terraces pánev at the Basin middle is also and compared lower stream to the of cur the Eger (Tables 1 and 2), namely in the Doupovské hory Geomorphological research of the Eger valley to the current stratigraphical scheme of the Quaterna- - ry,Mountains the Eger and River the terrace Mostecká system pánev was Basin. formed According mostly tigationbetween andthe Smrčinymorphogenetic Mountains evaluation and the western of localities part by the Pleistocene during the Tiglian to the Weichse- of the Sokolovská pánev Basin was aimed at the inves lian stages. The proposed morphostratigraphy of with river terraces and further fluvial sediments. The 258 Břetislav Balatka, Jan Kalvoda, Tereza Steklá, Petra Štěpančíková

Eger terraces River River (Table 2) can be used as a basis for their systematic radiometric dating. This doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2015.87. procedure then allows to complete the chronostra- Quaternary. AUC, Z., Geographica , F. (1985): 50(1), Late 63–73, Pliocene https:// palaeoenviroment and correlation of the Vildštejn Bůžek, Č., Kvaček Holý in the Quaternary. tigraphy of the formation of these fluvial landforms floristic, J. complex within Central Europe. Rozpravy ČSAV, ř. MPV, 95, 7, Praha, 72 p. Acknowledgements DanzerČtyroký, E. (1922):(1996): MorphologischeVývoj údolí Ohře Studien ve Slavkovském im mittleren lese. EgergebieteDiplomová práce, zwischen PřF UK,dem Praha. Karlsbad-Falkenauer und The paper was completed in the framework of Charles dem Komotau-Teplitzer Tertiärbecken. Arbeiten des University project PROGRES Q44 “Geography”. geographisches Instituts der deutschen Universität in

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