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Mapping favouritism at the : does it impact the results? Pot, Felix

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Download date: 26-09-2021 Mapping favouritism at the Eurovision Song Contest: does it impact the results?

Felix Pot1 | 12 May 2021

Ever since the Eurovision Song Contest exists, there are suspicions that the voting is politically biased. Based on the most recent 45 editions, this paper maps out which participating countries can count on each other's sympathy and which cannot. Although there are clear preferences between countries, political voting rarely determines the overall result and the best entry wins. Corrected for favouritism, is the most successful country and '' is the 'best' song since 1975.

In short:  By analysing the results of 45 editions of Eurovision, clear geographical voting patterns emerge  Countries in the Caucasus and the benefit the most from political voting  Rarely is political voting decisive for the outcome of the Eurovision Song Contest  Adjusted for favouritism, Sweden is the best Eurovision country  The highest valued Eurovision song is "Save Your Kisses for Me" by

The Eurovision Song Contest has been an annual European tradition since 1956. Thanks to the Dutch win in 2019, the mega-fest will land in in 2021. Eurovsion was created to bring together a Europe torn apart by two world wars through the power of music. Slogans such as 'Under the same Sky' (, 2004) and 'Building Bridges' (, 2015) underline this pan-European ambition of unity. At the same time, Eurovision is a competition in which countries try to show their best (European) side, break social taboos and/or address political sensitivities between countries (Yair, 2018). These national expressions are then rewarded or punished by the European public through voting. Ever since Eurovision has existed, there have been allegations of favouritism in voting. Countries would give each other points not only based on the song, but also on affinity (Stockemer et al. 2018). In case will be in the final on 22 May 2021, it would be very surprising for it not to receive the full ‘douze points’ from . Other groups of countries such as the Baltic States, countries in the Balkans and the former Soviet states are also accused of exchanging votes (Dekker, 2007; Fenn et al., 2006; Yair, 1995; Yair and Maman, 1996). Explanations include cultural similarities, a shared political history and ethnic ties through migration (Ginsburgh and Noury, 2008; Spierdijk and Vellekoop, 2009). Eurovision thus appears to be not only an entertaining event for many, but also an annual poll of how relations are developing on the European continent. Is this political voting behaviour indeed present and to what extent does it influence the outcome? And what are the best songs and countries of the Song Contest, barring any favouritism? This article summarizes an analysis based on the past 45 editions.

Quality and affinity The rules of Eurovision are simple: each participating country enters a song which is then awarded 0 to 12 points by all other contesting countries. In order to map the voting bias, it must first be determined which part of the awarded points is related to the quality of the song and which part to affinity with the country. Of course, there is no accounting for taste, especially at Eurovision. Still, there is a way to separate these two components. It is justifiable that the quality of a song is equal to the average number of points it receives. The problem is that this average would include political votes. By analysing results over the entire period that the current points system exists (1975-2019), it can be seen whether a country systematically gives an above or below average number of points to another country. If this is the case,

1Department of Economic Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, PO box 800, 9700 AV Groningen. E-mail: [email protected].

1 it can be said that this country is not a neutral evaluator of the other country. To arrive at a measure of quality for an entry based on the average number of points received, only neutral assessors of that country are included. In other words, to measure the quality of a Greek entry by the average number of points received, for example, the points awarded by Cyprus are not taken into account. Accordingly, a quality score can be calculated for each song. Table 1 shows that, based on this method, "Save your kisses for me" by Brotherhood of Man is the highest-rated song over the period 1975-2019 (a top 100 can be found in the Appendix). The Dutch entry "Ding-a-Dong" closes the top 10. If a country gives more or less points than this quality score, this can be seen as an over- or undervaluation (Fiebelmayr and Toubal, 2010; Ginsburgh and Noury, 2008). Table 1: Highest valued Eurovision songs (1975-2019) Country Year Title Artist Score 1. UK 1976 “Save Your Kisses for Me” Brotherhood of Man 8.93 2. UK 1997 “” Katrina & The Waves 8.55 3. 2009 “Fairytale” Rybak 8.50 4. 2017 “” 8.44 5. 1994 "Rock 'n' Roll Kids" PaulHarrington & Charlie McGettigan 8.25 6. Sweden 2015 “Heroes” Måns Zelmerlöw 8.16 7. 1986 “J’aime la Vie” 8.00 8. Sweden 2012 “Euphoria” Loreen 7.93 9. 1976 “Un, Deux, Trois” Catherine Ferry 7.92 10. 1975 “Ding-a-Dong” Teach-In 7.92

Mental maps of Europe The maps below show the average over- and underestimation of one country or a group of countries to all other (ex-)participating European countries (Figures 1 and 2). To facilitate comparison between the maps, the ratings are presented in standard deviations. Light green reflects a more or less neutral attitude. The greener the more positive and the pinker the more negative (a more detailed breakdown of voting biases can be found in the Appendix). The Netherlands clearly gives more votes to its neighbouring countries, Belgium and, to a lesser extent, . Many votes also went to and Armenia. This is a phenomenon that also occurs in other West European countries, such as Germany and Belgium, due to the presence of a relatively large population with these origins (Spierdijk and Vellekoop, 2009). Eastern European countries, and especially Moldova, and , get the least support from the Netherlands.

Figure 1: ‘Mental maps’ of Europe based on Eurovision scores (part 1)

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The 'mental map' of Russia looks very different. Here it is mainly the former Soviet states in the Caucasus and (, and Moldova) that are overvalued. It is striking that the former Eastern Bloc countries that are now part of the do receive any overvaluations from Russia. These countries themselves have also given less and less overvaluations to Russia, and since 2014 they have on average not even given overvaluations to Russia anymore. The is also interesting to look at, as this country has recently broken with Europe politically. The UK is also traditionally one of the biggest critics of the Eurovision voting system. Yet, the UK is not immune to political voting either, given the strong preference for neighbouring Ireland. Again, the influences of labour migration can be seen with overvaluations for Bulgaria and as well as the influence of political history with positive ratings for and, not visible on the map, . Perhaps the biggest accusations of favouritism at Eurovision go to the Balkan countries. Indeed, it is easy to see that countries of the former Republic of trade points. A similar pattern can be

Figure 2: ‘Mental maps’ of Europe based on Eurovision scores (part 2)

3 seen for the Baltic States, although points are also given to Russia and the Scandinavian countries. The latter also seems to form a bloc with Iceland and . Many points also go to due to the relatively large number of Bosnians in Sweden in particular. Often, the focus is on bloc formation between countries that vote for each other. But it is just as interesting to look at the undervaluations. As might be expected, Armenia and hardly trade points. But it does not always take war. For instance, there is little exchange between Islamic (e.g. Turkey and Azerbaijan) and Christian countries (e.g. and ). Also striking is the undervaluation of by many (ex) EU countries. The United Kingdom, Bulgaria, and , for example, systematically give Italy fewer points.

Political voting not decisive It is clear that there is bloc formation and favouritism in the Song Contest. The Balkans and the Caucasus benefit the most from this. These countries dominate the top 10 of countries that receive the most over- rating across the board. The question then arises whether this is problematic. It seems that the influence of political voting on the final result is actually limited. After all, if the same cultural factors were at play every year, only a limited group of countries would be able to win. The fact that there is a great diversity of winning countries, even after the accession of Balkan countries, former Soviet states and Eastern European countries, suggests that this is not true. Previous research has also shown that the quality of a song is decisive (Ginsburgh and Noury, 2008). Despite bloc formation, for an entry to win it should appeal to everyone to at least some extent. Using the song scores that have been cleared for favouritism, it appears that since 1990 the song with the highest quality score has not won four times. All times seem to be incidents. In 1991 there was a tie between Sweden and France and the winner was determined by counting the number of 12- and 10- pointers. In 1998, the UK had the best song judging by the scores of neutral countries, but lost to Israeli taboo-breaking , who was the first openly transgendered person to perform at the Song Contest. In 2000, Russia lost to after the Russian delegation accused the Danes of cheating for using a vocoder on stage. Most recently, in 2016, Ukraine won from favourite Russia with a song about Stalin's deportation of Crimean Tartars in 1944. Analogies were quickly drawn with the current occupation of Crimea, resulting in strong undervaluations for Russia in that year.

The best Eurovision country? What if there were no favouritism, which country would come out on top? Below is a ranking of countries based on song ratings by countries that are neutral towards that country (the full list is in the Appendix). A correction has also been made for the number of participations a country has. After all, if a country has participated three times and scored very well three times, that does not mean that that country is just as good as a country that has participated ten times and always scored equally well. When calculating the average score of a country, the score of a country that has participated less often is drawn to the average of all songs across all countries. In other words, if a country did not participate, it is implicitly assumed that a country would have sent in an average song (for a detailed explanation of this method, see: Bhayani, 2020). Table 2: Top 10 Eurovision countries Country Score Highest valued song 1. Sweden 2.370 2015: Måns Zelmerlöw “Heroes” (8,16) 2. Italy 2.248 1990: Toto Cutogno “Insieme” (7,00) 3. Russia 2.192 2015: Pilina Gagarina “A Million Voices” (7,10) 4. Ireland 2.004 1994: Paul Harrington & Charlie McGettigan "Rock n Roll Kids" (8,25) 5. United Kingdom 1.981 1976: Brotherhood of Man “Save Your Kisses for Me” (8,93) 6. Ukraine 1.954 2004: “Wild ” (7,67) 7. 1.911 1983: “Hi” (7,00) 8. France 1.892 1976: Catherine Ferry “Un, Deux, Trois” (7,92) 9. Greece 1.844 2001: Antique “Die for You” (6,62) 10. Norway 1.826 2009: “Fairytale” (8,50)

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Based on these calculations, Sweden is the best Eurovision country, even without accounting for ABBA's victory in 1974. Italy, which served as a role model for the Song Contest with the San Remo Festival, occupies second place and the third place is for Russia. Although Ireland and the United Kingdom have not been particularly successful in recent years, they still rank high on the list due to past successes. The overall rankings do change slightly if favouritism is not controlled for. However, the overall structure is very similar and Sweden remains . This, again, underlines that favouritism only has a modest impact on Eurovision results.

‘Music first’ Despite the Song Contest's pan-European motivation, there seems to be little evidence of broad-based European unity. Analyses of voting results reveal clear geographical voting patterns that can be traced back to cultural, religious, political and ethnic ties. Yet the fear of an unfair festival is not entirely well- founded. It may push a country through the semi-finals, but the Contest will unlikely be won on the basis of favouritism alone. There seems to be some truth in 's victory speech in Tel- Aviv in 2019. It is all about “music first”.

References Bhayani, A. (2020). Solving an age-old problem using Bayesian Average. www.codementor.io Dekker, A. (2007). The Eurovision Song Contest as a ‘Friendship’ Network. Connections, 27(3), 53-58 Fenn, D., Suleman, O., Efstathiou J. and Johnson, N.F. (2006). How does Europe make its mind up? Connections, cliques, and compatibility between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 360, 576–598 Felbermayr, G.J. and Toubal, F. (2010). Cultural proximity and trade. European Economic Review, 54, 279-293 Ginsburgh, V. and Noury, A.G. (2008). The Eurovision Song Contest. Is voting political or cultural? European Journal of Political Economy, 24(1), 41–52 Spierdijk, L. and Vellekoop, M. (2009). The structure of bias in peer voting systems: lessons from the Eurovision Song Contest. Empirical Economics, 36, 403-425 Stockemer, D., Blais, A., Kostelka, F. and Chhim, C. (2018). Voting in the Eurovision Song Contest. Politics, 38(4), 418-442 Yair, G. (1995). Unite Unite Europe’: The political and cultural structure of Europe as reflected in the Eurovision Song Contest. Social Networks, 17, 147–161. Yair, G. (2018). Douze point: Eurovisions and Euro-Divisions in the Eurovision Song Contest – Review of two decades of research. European Journal of Cultural Studies, 22(5-6), 1013-1029 Yair, G. and Maman, D. (1996). The persistent structure of hegemony: Politics and culture in the Eurovision Song Contest. Acta Sociologica, 39(3), 309–325

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Appendix

Table A1: Highest valued Eurovision songs 1-50 (1975-2019) Country Year Title Artist Score 1. UK 1976 “Save Your Kisses for Me” Brotherhood of Man 8.93 2. UK 1997 “Love Shine a Light” Katrina & The Waves 8.55 3. Norway 2009 “Fairytale” Alexander Rybak 8.50 4. Portugal 2017 “Amar pelos Dois” Salvador Sobral 8.44 5. Ireland 1994 "Rock 'n' Roll Kids" PaulHarrington & Charlie McGettigan 8.25 6. Sweden 2015 “Heroes” Måns Zelmerlöw 8.16 7. Belgium 1986 “J’aime la Vie” Sandra Kim 8.00 8. Sweden 2012 “Euphoria” Loreen 7.93 9. France 1976 “Un, Deux, Trois” Catherine Ferry 7.92 10. Netherlands 1975 “Ding-a-Dong” Teach-In 7.92 11. Ukraine 2004 “” Ruslana 7.67 12. Estonia 2001 “Everybody” & 7.63 13. 2014 “” 7.35 14. 2002 “I Wanna” Marie N 7.35 15. France 1977 “Loiseau et l’Enfant” 7.31 16. Germany 1982 “Ein bißchen Frieden” Nicole 7.13 17. Bulgaria 2017 “Beautiful Mess” 7.10 18. Germany 1987 “Laß die Sonne in dein Herz” Wind 7.10 19. Russia 2015 “A Million Voices” 7.10 20. Sweden 1984 “Diggi-loo diggi-ley” Herrey’s 7.08 21. Israel 1983 “Hi” Ofra Haza 7.00 22. UK 1975 “Let me be the one” 7.00 23. Israel 1978 "Ah-Bah-Nee-Bee" Yizhar Cohen and 7.00 24. Italy 1990 “Insieme” Toto Cutogno 7.00 25. Israel 1979 “Hallelujah” Milk and Honey 7.00 26. Finland 2006 “” 6.97 27. Ireland 1980 “What’s another Year” Johnny Logan 6.83 28. Russia 2000 “Solo” 6.82 29. UK 1981 “” 6.80 30. Ireland 1987 “Hold me now” Johnny Logan 6.75 31. 1986 “Pas poir moi” Daniela Simons 6.75 32. Italy 2015 “” 6.74 33. Ireland 1996 “The ” Eimear Quinn 6.72 34. Russia 2006 “Never let you go” 6.71 35. Ireland 1993 “In your Eyes” 6.63 36. Greece 2001 “Die for you” Antique 6.62 37. Denmark 2000 “” 6.62 38. Denmark 2013 “” 6.58 39. France 2001 “Je n'ai que mon âme” Natasha St-Pier 6.58 40. Serbia & Mn. 2004 “” Zeljko Joksimovic 6.58 41. 1983 “Si la Vie est Cadeau” Corinne Hermes 6.56 42. Turkey 2003 “Everyway that I can” 6.56 43. France 1991 “Le dernier qui a parlé” Amina 6.50 44. UK 1998 “Where are you” 6.50 45. Greece 2004 “Shake It” 6.50 46. Denmark 2001 “Never gonna let you go” Rollo & King 6.50 47. Ireland 1984 “Terminal 3” 6.46 48. Netherlands 2014 “” 6.44 49. Sweden 1999 “Take me to your ” Charlotte Nilsson 6.33 50. Germany 1981 “Johnny ” 6.33

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Table A1 (continued): Highest valued Eurovision songs 51-100 (1975-2019) Country Year Title Artist Score 51. Poland 1994 “To nie ja!” Edyta Górniak 6.30 52. UK 1977 “Rock Bottom” and Mike Moran 6.29 53. Russia 2008 “Believe” Diman Bilan 6.27 54. Norway 1995 “Nocturne” 6.27 55. Belgium 2003 “” 6.26 56. UK 1993 “Better the Devil you know” Sonia 6.26 57. Ukraine 2013 “Gravity” Zlata Ognevich 6.22 58. Malta 2002 “” 6.22 59. Sweden 1991 “Fångad av en stormvind” Carola 6.21 60. Serbia 2007 “” Marija Šerifović 6.20 61. Israel 1998 “Diva” Dana International 6.17 62. Netherlands 2019 “Arcade” Duncan Laurence 6.16 63. Rusland 2003 “Ne ver’, ne boysia” t.A.T.u 6.15 64. Bosnia & Herz. 2006 “Lejla” Hara Mata Hari 6.15 65. Russia 2012 “” 6.14 66. Israel 1991 “Kan” Duo Datz 6.13 67. Germany 1985 “Für Alle” Wind 6.13 68. France 1981 “Humanahum” Jean Gabilou 6.00 69. Ireland 1992 “Why Me” Linda Martin 5.94 70. Malta 1998 “” Chiara 5.94 71. Belgium 1978 “L'amour ça fait chanter la vie” Jean Vallée 5.94 72. France 1990 “” Joelle Ursull 5.94 73. Switzerland 1988 “” Céline Dion 5.88 74. Latvia 2000 “My Star” BrainStorm 5.88 75. Switzerland 1981 “Lo senza te” Peter, Sue & Marc 5.88 76. France 1978 “Il y aura toujours des violons” Joël Prévost 5.86 77. Ireland 1977 “It’s nice to be in love again” The Swarbriggs Plus Two 5.85 78. Germany 1999 “Reise nach Jerusalem” Sürpriz 5.77 79. Luxembourg 1986 “Lámour de ma vie” Sherisse Laurence 5.71 80. Germany 2010 “Satellite”lena Lena 5.70 81. UK 1988 “Go” Scott Fitzgerald 5.69 82. Israel 2018 “Toy” Netta 5.68 83. Greece 2005 “” 5.67 84. Sweden 2014 “Undo” 5.67 85. Switzerland 1993 “Moi tout simplement” 5.67 86. Ukraine 2008 “Shady Lady” 5.64 87. Germany 1980 “Theater” 5.63 88. Iceland 1999 “” Selma 5.59 89. UK 1989 “Why do I always get it Wrong?” 5.59 90. Switzerland 1991 “” Sandra Simó 5.58 91. Italy 2019 “” Mahmood 5.58 92. UK 1985 “Love Is…” Vikki 5.57 93. Russia 2016 “You are the only one” 5.57 94. Belgium 2015 “Rhythm Inside” Loïc Nottet 5.56 95. Belgium 1982 “Si tu aimes ma Musique” Stella 5.53 96. Ireland 1997 “Mysterious Women” Marc Roberts 5.53 97. Yugoslavia 1989 “Rock Me” RIVA 5.47 98. Israel 1985 “Olé Olé” 5.46 99. Yugoslavia 1983 “Džuli” Danijel 5.43 100. 1979 “Su canción” Betty Missiego 5.38

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Table A2: Full ranking Eurovision countries (1975-2019) Country Score Highest valued song 1. Sweden 2.370 2015: Måns Zelmerlöw “Heroes” (8.16) 2. Italy 2.248 1990: Toto Cutogno “Insieme” (7.00) 3. Russia 2.192 2015: Pilina Gagarina “A Million Voices” (7.10) 4. Ireland 2.004 1994: Paul Harrington & Charlie McGettigan "Rock n Roll Kids" (8.25) 5. United Kingdom 1.981 1976: Brotherhood of Man “Save Your Kisses for Me” (8.93) 6. Ukraine 1.954 2004: Ruslana “Wild Dances” (7.67) 7. Israel 1.911 1983: Ofra Haza “Hi” (7.00) 8. France 1.892 1976: Catherine Ferry “Un, Deux, Trois” (7.92) 9. Greece 1.844 2001: Antique “Die for You” (6.62) 10. Norway 1.826 2009: Alexander Rybak “Fairytale” (8.50) 11. Netherlands 1.762 1975: Teach-In “Ding-a-Dong” (7.92) 12. Denmark 1.752 2000: Olsen Broghers “Fly on the Wings of Love” (6.62) 13. Luxembourg 1.749 1983: Corrine Hermès “Si la Vie est Cadeau” (6.56) 14. Switzerland 1.744 1986: “Pas Pur Moi” (6.75) 15. Germany 1.710 1982: Nicole “Ein bisschen Frieden” (7.13) 16. Azerbaijan 1.671 2011: Ell & Nikki “Running Scared” (5.18) 17. Belgium 1.663 1986: Sandra Kim “J’aime la Vie” (8.00) 18. Turkey 1.660 2003: Sertab Erener “Every way that I can” (6.56) 19. Australia 1.637 2016: Dami “Sound of Silence” (5.22) 20. Malta 1.559 2002: Ira Losco “7th Wonder” (6.22) 21. 1.558 1976: “Toi, La Musique et Moi” (5.25) 22. Serbia 1.500 2007: Marija Šerifović “Molitva” (6.20) 23. Cyprus 1.488 1982: “Mono I Agapi” (5.07) 24. 1.485 2005: Luminita Anghel & Sistem “” (4.00) 25. Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.470 2006: “Lejla” (6.67) 26. Bulgaria 1.439 2017: Kristian Kostov “Beautiful Mess” (7.10) 27. Austria 1.436 2014: Conchita Wurst “Rise like a Phoenix” (7.35) 28. Armenia 1.421 2014: “Not Alone” (4.76) 29. Hungary 1.416 1994: Friderika “Kinek mondjam el vétkeimet” (4.33) 30. Spain 1.401 1979: Betty Missiego “Su Canción” (5.38) 31. Estonia 1.390 2001: Tanel Padar & Dave Benton “Everybody” (7.63) 32. Iceland 1.388 1999: Selma “All Out of Luck” (5.59) 33. Moldova 1.383 2017: Sunstroke Project “Hey Mamma” (4.19) 34. Latvia 1.374 2002: Marie N “I Wanna” (7.35) 35. 1.334 1999: Doris Dragović “” (5.24) 36. 1.323 2018: Nikolas Josef “Lie to Me” (3.22) 37. Portugal 1.283 2017: Salvador Sobral “Amar pelos Dois” (8.40) 38. Poland 1.257 1994: Edyta Górniak “To nie ja” (6.30) 39. 1.244 1996: Marcel Palonder “Kým nás máš” (0.52) 40. Georgia 1.122 2010: Nizharadze “Shine” (2.18) 41. Finland 1.216 2006: Lordi “Hard Rock Halleluja” (6.91) 42. San Marino 1.173 2019: Serhat “” (0.93) 43. Albania 1.144 2012: Rona Nishliu “” (2.09) 44. Lithuania 1.123 2006: LT United “” (3.60) 45. 1.121 2015: Knez “Adio” (0.12) 46. Slovenia 1.111 1995: Darja Švajger “” (3.70) 47. Belarus 1.087 2007: Dimitry Koldun “” (2.50) 48. 1.048 2019: “Proud” (2.84)

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Table A3: Voting bias per country Average bias awarded Average bias received Country Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Albania Montenegro 5.94*** Belgium -2.66** North Macedonia 8.21*** Monaco -1.01 Armenia Montenegro 8.94*** Azerbaijan -2.37*** Turkey 6.31*** Azerbaijan -1.84** Australia Iceland 5.42** Switzerland -4.24* Sweden 5.83*** Georgia -1.67 Austria Bosnia & Herzegovina 4.03*** Ukraine -1.65** Bulgaria 4.23*** Azerbaijan -2.41*** Azerbaijan Turkey 7.13*** Belgium -3.38*** Turkey 6.84*** Armenia -2.37*** Belarus Russia 4.60*** Italy -2.21*** Ukraine 6.45*** Turkey -1.27 Belgium Armenia 2.91*** Ukraine -1.52** Slovakia 2.38 Azerbaijan -3.38 Bosnia & Herzegovina North Macedonia 6.60*** Cyprus -1.91*** Serbia 7.59*** Estonia -1.60*** Bulgaria Armenia 6.01*** Italy -3.01*** North Macedonia 2.83** Italy -3.37** Croatia North Macedonia 6.68*** Sweden -1.69*** Bosnia & Herzegovina 4.76*** Luxembourg -1.63 Cyprus Greece 7.47*** Latvia -1.96** Greece 7.00*** Bosnia & Herzegovina -1.91*** Czech Republic North Macedonia 4.44** Switzerland -4.24* Bosnia & Herzegovina 5.68** Russia -1.78 Denmark Sweden 4.02*** Italy -2.14*** Iceland 4.12*** Albania -1.63** Estonia Latvia 5.04*** Italy -1.97** Latvia 4.88*** Czech Republic -1.48 Finland Estonia 4.79*** Ukraine -1.68** Estonia 4.08*** Albania -1.32 France Armenia 4.51*** Ukraine -2.45*** Armenia 2.45*** Slovakia -1.49 Georgia Armenia 5.80*** Romania -1.59* Armenia 7.70*** Slovakia -1.37 Germany Turkey 3.04*** Azerbaijan -1.95** Denmark 2.17*** Azerbaijan -1.02* Greece Cyprus 7.00*** Czech Republic -1.78 Cyprus 7.47*** Latvia -2.01*** Hungary Azerbaijan 2.82*** Italy -1.47* Serbia 2.61*** Monaco -2.34 Iceland Denmark 4.12*** Bulgaria -2.42 Denmark 2.69*** Serbia -1.66* Ireland Latvia 4.33*** Armenia -1.69** Czech Republic 3.82** Moldova -0.97 Israel Romania 3.32*** Serbia -1.52* France 1.91*** Greece -1.64*** Italy North Macedonia 3.47* Bulgaria -3.37** Albania 5.35*** Bulgaria -3.01*** Latvia Estonia 4.88*** Turkey -2.49*** Lithuania 6.53*** Romania -2.35** Lithuania Georgia 7.41*** Bulgaria -1.67 Latvia 4.72*** Armenia -1.01 Luxembourg Malta 2.68** Croatia -1.63 Malta 4.40*** Switzerland -1.05* Malta Slovakia 5.67*** Moldova -1.53* Azerbaijan 4.81*** Slovenia -1.04* Moldova Romania 7.79*** The Netherlands -2.65** Romania 7.67*** Monaco -1.75 Monaco Iceland 4.70* Russia -2.50* Denmark 3.78** France -1.55 Montenegro Albania 7.42*** The Netherlands -2.82*** Serbia 9.88*** Cyprus -0.12 North Macedonia Albania 8.21*** Latvia -1.46 Serbia 8.56*** San Marino -1.03 Norway Sweden 3.39*** Armenia -1.69** Sweden 2.09*** Czech Republic -3.11*** Poland Ukraine 3.48*** Turkey -2.01*** Germany 2.47*** Russia -1.19 Portugal Moldova 4.23*** Bosnia & Herzegovina -1.43** France 3.12*** Montenegro -2.68** Romania Moldova 7.67*** Latvia -2.35** Moldova 7.79*** Georgia -1.59* Russia Armenia 6.03*** Czech Republic -1.78 Belarus 4.60*** Switzerland -2.78*** San Marino Albania 3.14*** Bulgaria -3.37** Greece 2.34 Australia -0.93 Serbia Montenegro 9.88*** Turkey -2.24** Montenegro 7.09*** Turkey -3.43*** Slovakia Croatia 3.70*** Turkey -2.59** Malta 5.67*** Turkey -0.44 Slovenia Montenegro 7.94*** Turkey -1.63*** Bosnia & Herzegovina 4.41*** Bulgaria -0.91 Spain Romania 4.39*** Switzerland -1.56*** Albania 2.59*** Denmark -0.76* Sweden Iceland 2.65*** Ukraine -1.99*** Denmark 4.02*** Azerbaijan -2.15*** Switzerland Albania 4.55*** Russia -2.78*** Serbia 2.76 Czech Republic -4.24* The Netherlands Armenia 3.51*** Moldova -1.73** Czech Republic 2.61** Azerbaijan -3.32*** Turkey Azerbaijan 6.84*** Serbia -3.43*** Azerbaijan 7.13*** Slovakia -2.59** Ukraine Belarus 6.45*** Bulgaria -2.92** Azerbaijan 5.31*** Switzerland -2.61*** United Kingdom Ireland 2.35*** Serbia -1.74** San Marino 2.49*** Greece -0.84** *, **, *** denote significance at the 10, 5 and 1 per cent level.

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