REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------wws OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 70

Dekadal Climate Forecasts and Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th February 2021

st 1 February 2021

© NOCC February 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°70 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th Febuary 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021. This dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021 will be characterized by the action of the Harmattan. This dry and dusty wind (Harmattan) will extend its action in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon.

II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.I.1 Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Dembo, in the North Region; - Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka, in the ; - Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou, in the East Region; - Akom II, Djoum, and , in the ; - Magba, , Bangangte, , Massagam, , , , , , Makam and Tonga, in the ; - Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Mamfe, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Fontem and Ekok, in the South-West Region; - , Loum Melong, , , , , Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, , , Edea and , in the Littoral Region.

NB1 : This dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021 will be marked by significant risks of heat waves (number of successive days with temperatures above 30°C) in various localities (Far North, North, Adamawa, Centre, South, East), with the exception of the west region, the North West and the coastal strip of the South West regions, the Littoral and the South region, as well as by an increase in the number of days with hot nights in certain localities in the North, Far North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region.

II.I.2 Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - , Makari, Kousseri, Mora, Maga, Kaikai, Bogo, , Mokolo, and Kaele, in the Far-North region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo, in the North region; - Ngao undere, Tignere, Meiganga and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa region; - Moloundou, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Batouri, in the East region; - Ndop, Wum, Bali, Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma, in the North West region.

NB2 : This dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021 will be marked by an increase in the number of days with cold nights in the Far North, North, Adamawa, North-West and West Regions, as a consequence of a strong decrease in minimum temperatures due to the influence of the Harmattan, coupled with cool winds from the Middle East and Southern Europe, while the bimodal rainfall forest zone ( Centre, South and East) and the monomodal rainfall forest zone (South-West and Littoral) will experience minimum temperatures around the average.

II.I.3 Thermal Differences

The dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021 will be marked by an increase in daily temperature differences in Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo, in the North Region; Moloundou, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Batouri, in the East Region. The said thermal differences, with values between 20 and 30°C.

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 1st to 10th February 2021 will be marked by the influence of the Harmattan in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North and Far North), the High

Guinean savannah zone (Adamawa), the northern part of the Centre and East Regions. This influence would be evident through dry, cold and dusty winds.

However, the Littoral, South, South-West, southern part of the Centre and East Regions, Western part of the West and North-West Regions could experience localised rains, due to their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean coupled with the influence of the tropical forest. st th This dekad will be marked by a greater aridity compared to that observed during the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021, evident through an extreme scarcity of rainfall in the Far North, North, Adamawa, North-West, West, Centre and East Regions. NB3: This dekad, from 1st to 10th February 2021, will be characterized by a risk of recording a very high increase in evapotranspiration, as a consequence of an increase IIIin maximum Climate temperatures forecasts coupled for thewith thefive scarcity agro of-ecological rainfall, resulting zones to a forgradual the decrease perio ind thefr omavailability 1st to of 1 water0th Febuary resources in 202 some1 dams in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, notably Lagdo and in the High Guinean Savannah zone, (Mbakaou)

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1) For precipitation 2) Due to the quasi-permanence of the Harmattan, the dekad from the 1st to 10th February 2021 would be (a) (b) characterized by more aridity over the national

territory due to the influence of the Harmattan, trans lated by dry, cold and dusty winds, with the scarcity of rainfall. Thus for this period we expect:

a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone an extension of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North and Far North regions), characterized by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high (a) evapotranspiration and increased aridity of the (b) atmosphere . b) In the Guinean high savannah zone

an extension of the dry season in the Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), characterized by an extreme scarcity of rainfall, high evapotranspiration and increased aridity of the atmosphere. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone This decade from 1st to 10th February 2021 corresponds to: - The extension of the long dry season in the Centre Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) and East regions, following the influence of the compared to that recorded during the period January 21-30, 2021 (a) Harmattan characterised by a scarcity in rainfall; Source : NOCC, February 2021 - The extension of the long dry season in the South region. NB4: During this dekad from 1st to 10th February 2020, we expect Note however that the said dekad could be characterized - a likelihood of sporadic rains on the coastal strip of Cameroon, by sporadic rains in the western part of the South region particularly in the west of the Littoral, South and South West (, Campo, Nyabizan and ), due to the regions, due to the influence of the proximity of the Atlantic influence of the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean as Ocean; well as in the continental part of the South region and the southern part of the Centre and East - an extension of the dry season in the Sudano Sahelian zone (Far regions, as a result of the influence of the tropical North and North regions), Guinea High Savannah zone forest. (Adamawa region), the High Plateau zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and d) In the high plateaux zone South West regions); This dekad from the 1st to 10th February 2021 corresponds to the extension of the dry season in the West and North - an extension of the long dry season in the Bimodal rainfall West regions, characterized by a scarcity in rainfall. forest zone (Centre, East and South Regions). However, this zone could experience some localised rains, especially in its western part. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone This dekad from the 1st to 10th February 2021 corresponds to the extension of the dry season in the South West and Littoral regions. However, the localities in the western part of this agro-ecological zone could record sporadic and localised rains due to their proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, as well as sporadic rainfall in the continental part of the zone.

3 3) For Temperatures a) Maximum Temperatures - Above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Magba, Dschang, Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded during this Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bazou, Koutaba, Foumban, Bafoussam, Mbouda, dekad from 1979 to 2018, notably 34.26°C in the Far North Region; 35.5°C in Makam and Tonga, in the West Region; the North Region; 32.75°C in the Adamawa Region; 30°C in the Centre Region; - Around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kumba, Mundemba, 30°C in the South Region; 30.78°C in the East Region; 28.74°C in the West Limbe, Buea, Idenau and Tiko; above average in Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Mamfe, Region; 30°C in the North West Region; 29.91°C in the South West Region and Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Fontem and Ekok, in the South-West Region; 28.8°C in the Littoral Region, maximum temperatures are expected for the dekad from the 1st to 10th February 2021: - Above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yabassi, Loum Melong, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo; around Dizangue, Penja, Douala, Edea and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region. average in Kaele; above average in Maga, Makari, Yagoua, Waza, Kousséri, Maroua, Mora, Mindif, and Bogo, in the Far-North Region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Dembo, in the North

Region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere; above average in Meiganga, Tignere, Tibati, Ngaoundal and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka, in the Centre Region; (a) (a) (b) - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, (b) Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou, in the East Region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Sangmelima, Nyabizan, Kribi, Campo and Lolodorf; above average in Akom II, Djoum, Ambam and Ebolowa, in the South Region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bali, Santa, Wum, Benakuma, Ndop, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Fundong and Nwa, in the North-West Region;

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) Source : NOCC, February2021

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Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - Around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th January, 2021, there is a Ndop, Wum, Bali, Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma, in the high probability of registering maximum temperatures: North West Region; st th - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 in - - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Mokolo, Bogo, Maroua, Kaele, Mora, Yagoua, Waza, Kousséri, Mindif Dschang, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Makam, and Maga, in the Far North Region; Foumban, , Bagangte, Tonga and Bazou, in the West Region. st th - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 in -. Rey-Bouba, Dembo, Tchollire, Touboro, Poli, Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo, in the North Region; - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Ngaoundere, Meiganga, Banyo and Tignere, in the Adamawa Region; - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Ngoyla, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Batouri, Betare-Oya, Garoua-Boulai, Moloundou, Bertoua, Lomie, Abong-Mbang and Belabo, in the East

Region; st th - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 in (a) (b) Deuk, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Obala, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Yaoundé and Eseka, in the Centre Region;

- Around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Sangmelima, Kribi, Campo, Nyabizan, Ebolowa; above average in Ambam, Djoum, Zoetele, Akom II and Lolodorf, in the South Region.; - - Around the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Tiko, Kumba, Idenau, Eyumojock, Fontem, Muyuka, Limbe, Buea and Mundemba; above average in Mamfe and Nguti, in the South-West Region; - Above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Loum and Yabassi; around the average in , , Edea, Ndom, Dizangue, Melong, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, , Mouanko, Manjo, Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) Mbanga Douala and , in the Littoral Region.; compared to the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021 (a).

Source : NOCC, February 2021

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Pitoa, Poli, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Dembo, in the North Region; - Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaounde, Ngoro, Yoko and Eseka,

in the Centre Region;

- Yokadouma, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua-Boulai, Lomie, Moloundou, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Betare-Oya, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou, in the East Region; - Akom II, Djoum, Ambam and Ebolowa, in the South Region; - Magba, Dschang, Bangangte, Foumbot, Massagam, Bazou, Koutaba, Foumban, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Makam and Tonga, in the West Region;

- Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Mamfe, Nguti, Ekondo Titi, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Fontem and Ekok, in the South-West Region; - Yabassi, Loum, Melong, Nkondjock, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Bare-Bakem, Mbanga, Dizangue, Penja, Douala, Edea and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region.

6 b) Minimum Temperatures -Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ndop, Wum, Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered from 1979 Bali, Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma in the North West to 2018, notably 18.24°C in the Far North Region; 19.6°C in the North Region; Region; 17.8°C in the Adamawa Region; 19.9°C in the Centre Region; - Around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kumba, 21.45°C in the South Region; 19.85°C in the East Region; 16.85°C in the Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem, Muyuka, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Nguti; West Region; 16°C in the North-West Region; 21.66°C in the South-West above average in Tiko, Limbe, Idenau and Buea, in the South West Region; st th Region and 19.66°C in the Littoral Region, for the dekad from 1 to 10 - Around the historical average recorded for the same period from 1979 to

February 2021, we expect minimum temperatures: 2018 in Douala, Mouanko, Edea, Dizangue, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Melong, - Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yagoua, Nkongsamba; above average in Loum, and Yabassi, in the Littoral Region. Makari, Kousseri, Mora, Maga, Kaikai, Bogo, Maroua, Mokolo, Mindif and Kaele, in the Far North Region; - Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo, in the North Region; - Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Mbakaou and Tibati; around the average in Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - Around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Obala, Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Mbalmayo, Yaounde and Nanga Eboko higher (a) than the average in Nkoteng and Bafia, in the Centre Region; (b) - Below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Moloundou, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya,

Yokadouma and Batouri; around the average in Abong-Mbang, in the East Region ; - Around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Zoetele, Campo, Kribi, Ambam, Akom II, Djoum, Lolodorf and Ebolowa; above average in Nyabizan, in the South Region; - Around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Makam, Foumban, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga and Bazou, in the West Region; Figure 4: variation in average minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021 (b) compared to historical averages recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source : NOCC, February 2021

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th January 2021, there is a high - Around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Santa, Nwa, probability during the dekad from 1st to 10th Febuary 2021 of registering Bamenda, Ndop, Fundong, Kumbo, Benakuma and Wum, in the North average minimum temperatures: West Region; - Above the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Kaele, - Around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Nguti, Maroua, Kousseri, Bogo, Waza, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and Kousseri; Mundemba, Tiko, Kumba, Buea, Muyuka, Bamusso, Idenau, Eyumojock around the average in Mora and Mokolo in the Far North Region; and Mamfe, in the South-West Region. st th - Around the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 in Guider, Touboro, Rey Bouba, Lagdo and Tchollire; above average

in Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa and Poli in the North Region; - Around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Banyo, Ngaoundere, Mbakaou and Meiganga; above average in Tibati and Tignere in the Adamawa Region; st th - Around the average recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 in Ngoro, Yoko, Nanga Eboko, Eseka, Monatele, Obala, Yaounde, Akonolinga and Mbandjock; above average in Nkoteng, Bafia and Mbalmayo in the Centre Region; (a) (b) - Below average in Abong-Mbang for the period from 21st to 30th January 2021; around average in Batouri, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Betare Oya, Yokadouma, Garoua-Boulai and Lomie in the

East Region; - Around the average recorded during the period from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Campo, Kribi, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Lolodorf; below average in Nyabizan; above average in Akom II, Ambam, Ebolowa and Djoum in the South Region; - Around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban and Foumbot; above average in Makam and Tonga in the West Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures for the dekad from 1st to 10th February Region; st th 2021 (b) compared to those recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 January 2021 (a) - Around the average recorded from 21st to 30th January 2021 in Edea, Source : NOCC, February20211

Dizang ue, Loum, Penja, Melong, Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba and Manjo; above average in Yabassi, in the Littoral Region;

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021, special attention should be paid to those localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures, compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold spells. They include:

- Yagoua, Makari, Kousséri, Mora, Maga, Kaikai, Bogo, Maroua, Mokolo, Mindif and Kaele, in the Far-North Region; - Poli, Touboro, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Pitoa, Garoua and Dembo, in the North Region; - Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - Moloundou, Mindourou, Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Ngoyla, Garoua-Boulai, Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Batouri, in the East

Region; - Ndop, Wum, Bali, Nwa, Kumbo, Santa, Bamenda and Benakuma, in the North-West Region.

9 IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: d) For the urban planning sector: A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of registering cases of degradation of edifices and engineering

-cases of destruction and degradation of plantations (cocoa, banana plantations, cotton fields, structures, due to heat and the presence of dust particles in the air in most localities sugar cane plantations, etc.) and pastures by bush fires in the five agro-ecological zones; in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; --a decrease in yields of plants dependent on the availability of water resources (cocoa, banana plantations, etc.), due to the increase in maximum temperature and evapotranspiration in the forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions) and in the forest zone e) In the water and energy sector: with mono-modal rainfall (Littoral and South-West regions); A high risk of recording cases of: -a scarcity of water resources for the irrigation of market gardening in the Sudano-Sahelian - decrease in the water levels in dams, due to increase in evapotranspiration, with a zone and the Guinean high savannah zone, due to the effective installation of the dry season. consequent decrease in the production of electricity in hydro-power plants;

- scarcity of water resources in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and a progressive drying up of river beds due to the severity of the dry season; b) In the health sector: A risk of recording cases of: -progressive decrease in the water level in water catchment and treatment sites; -progressive decrease of the water tables in the five agro-ecological zones; • an increase in the number of cases of water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.) due to the poor quality of drinking water in the 5 Agro-ecological Zones and particularly in precarious areas and large conurbations; f) In the environment and biodiversity sector: • a multiplication of cases of meningococcal meningitis in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, A risk of recording cases of: following the dry and dusty winds; - straying and migration of certain wildlife species out of Parks, in search of water • an increase in cases of conjunctivitis in the five agro-ecological zones due to the combined resources and food, resulting in damage to farmlands, human life and property in the Far effect of heat and dust in the air; North, North, and Adamawa regions; • an increase in epidemics and cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, - morning fog observed in the five Agro-Ecological zones resulting in cases of road asthma attacks, etc.) due to the increase in the number of cold nights and the presence of dust in accidents. the air, in the five agro-ecological zones; - deterioration of plant health in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and in the Guinean High • an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, rheumatism, Savannah zone, following the disruption of the flora's vegetative cycle by the severity of hypertension, children, women in menopause, people suffering from diabetes, in most localities the dry season. of the country during this period because of the heat. g) In the defence and security sector: c) For the Livestock sector A risk of recording cases of A high risk of recording cases of: - cases of epizootic diseases, following the persistence of Harmattan-induced night-time cold - conflicts between cattle breeders and farmers in their search for water sources episodes in many localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa, East, West and North West regions and fresh grass in the Far North, North, Adamawa regions and Northwest. during this period; - conflict between populations in search of water resources and food in the Far - degradation and rarefaction of pastures already rendered fragile by floods observed during North, North and Adamawa regions, due to the progressive drying up of water the rainy season in the Far North and North regions. points; - cases of destruction of pastures by bush fires in the Far North, North and Adamawa regions, - conflict between populations in search of natural resources, due to the severity of as well as the northern part of the East region the dry season

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VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1st to 10th February 2021

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest South- Regions Far-North North Adamawa East Centre South West North-West Littoral West Minimum Temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018 (°C) 17.03 19 17.04 20 20 21.5 16.83 15.09 21.4 20.14 Trend forecasts ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 82 85.1 82 53 82 82 83 83 78 86.8

Maximum Temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018 33.18 33.96 31.95 30.5 30 30 29 30 29.85 28.85 Trend forecasts ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 82 85.1 82 55 82 85.1 83 83 78 86.8 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018 (mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the Mean≈ ; = Reduction ; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to:

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

For more information contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 12 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] ou [email protected]