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Automobile-August-2014.Pdf 10% 8% 5% 4% By 2020, India's share in the Third-largest automobile global passenger vehicle industry by 2016E market to double to 8 per cent 0% 2010 2020 from 4 per cent over 2010–11 2010 2020 40.0 CAGR: 11% 34.0 30.0 20.0 15.9 Two–wheeler sales to rise from World’s second-largest two 10.0 15.9 million in FY2013 to 34.0 wheeler manufacturer 0.0 million by FY2020E FY13 FY20 FY13 FY20 10.0 8.6 CAGR: 13% 5.0 Passenger vehicle sales to Passenger vehicle sales to 3.2 increase from 3.2 million in nearly triple by 2020E FY2013 to 8.6 million in - FY2021E FY13 FY21 FY13 FY21 Source: IHS, NEMMP 2020, ACMA, Aranca Research Note: E – Estimate FY10 GrowingGrowing demand demand Innovation opportunities FY16E • Strong growth in demand due to • Tata Nano and the upcoming Pixel Market rising income, middle class, and a have opened up the potentially Market size: young population is likely to propel large ultra low-cost car segment size: India among the world’s top five USD57.7 • Innovation is likely to intensify USD145 auto manufacturers by 2015 among engine technology and billion billion • Growth in export demand is set to alternative fuels accelerate Advantage India Rising investments Policy support • India has significant cost • The government aims to develop advantages; auto firms save 10-25 India as a global manufacturing as per cent on operations vis-à-vis well as R&D hub Europe and Latin America • There has been a wide array of • A large pool of skilled manpower policy support in the form of sops, and a growing technology base taxes and FDI encouragement would induce greater investments Source: Automotive Mission Plan (2006–2016) Notes: R&D – Research and Development; FDI – Foreign Direct Investment; FY – Indian Financial Year (April – March); FY16E – Estimated figure for Financial Year 2016 20.7 million units (FY13) 11 million units (2007) 0.6 million units (1992) 2008 onwards 1993–2007 • More than 35 market 0.4 million players • Sector de-licensed in units (1982) 1983–92 1993 • Removal of most import controls • Major Original • Joint Venture (JV): • Indian companies Indian government and Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) gaining acceptance on a Before 1982 Suzuki formed Maruti global scale Udyog; commenced started assembly • Setting up of National • Closed market production in 1983 operations in India Automotive Board to act • Five players • Component • Imports permitted from April 2001 as facilitator between the • Long waiting manufacturers entered government and industry periods and the market via JV • Introduction of value- outdated models • Buyer’s market added tax in 2005 • Seller’s market Source: Tata Motors, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Aranca Research Note: JV – Joint Venture Automobiles Passenger Commercial Two-wheelers Three-wheelers vehicles vehicles Mopeds Passenger cars Light Passenger carriers commercial vehicles Scooters Utility vehicles Goods carriers Medium and heavy commercial vehicles Motorcycles Multi-purpose vehicles Electric two- wheelers The gross turnover of automobile manufacturers in India expanded at a CAGR of 17.7 per cent over FY07-11 Excluding three wheelers, trucks accounted for the largest share of revenues (47.8 per cent in 2011) Revenue trends over the past few years Market* break-up by revenues (2011) (USD million) 70.0 58.6 60.0 20.4% CAGR: 17.7% 50.0 Trucks 43.3 40.0 36.6 33.3 47.8% 30.5 Cars 30.0 20.0 Two Wheelers 31.8% 10.0 0.0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Source: SIAM, Datamonitor, Aranca Research Note: *Does not include three wheelers Production of automobiles increased at a CAGR of 11.8 per cent over FY05-13 Passenger vehicles was the fastest growing segment, representing a CAGR of 12.9 per cent Total production of automobiles in India (million units) 18 15.9 15.5 16 14 13.4 12 10.5 10 8 8.4 8.5 7.6 8 6.5 6 4 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0 0.4 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Note: CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate Two wheelers dominate production volumes; in FY13, the Market share by volume (FY13) segment accounted for about three quarters of the total automotive production in the country 4% 4% India is the world’s second-largest two wheeler Two Wheelers manufacturer and fourth-largest producer of commercial vehicles 15% Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle 77% Three Wheelers Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Share in production of passenger vehicles (FY13) Share in production of commercial vehicles (FY13) 19.3% 29.4% Passenger cars MCV & HCV Utility vehicle LCV 70.6% 80.7% Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Notes: LCV – Light Commercial Vehicle; MCV – Medium Commercial Vehicle; HCV – Heavy Commercial Vehicle Share in production of three-wheelers (FY13) Share in production of two-wheelers (FY13) 5.9% 18.3 15.3% Mopeds Goods Carrier Motorcycles Passenger Carrier Scooters 81.7 78.7% Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Automobile export volumes increased at a CAGR of 19.1 per cent over FY05–13 Two-wheeler segment reported the fastest growth (22.2 per cent) followed by three-wheelers (16.3 per cent) over FY05–13 Exports of automobiles from India (million units) 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Two wheelers accounted for the largest share in exports (by Exports shares by volume (FY13) volume) at 67 per cent in FY13 Passenger vehicles comprised a sizeable 19 per cent of overall exports 19% Passenger Vehicle Exports of passenger vehicles registered the highest growth 3% Commercial at 9.02 per cent in FY13 Vehicle 11% Three Wheelers 67% Two Wheelers Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Auto sales across categories domestically rose by 3.53 per Growth in sales cent in FY14 30% 28% 27% Passenger vehicles declined by 6.05 per cent in FY14 25% 20% Passenger car segment declined by 5.01 per cent 15% 12% 10% 4% 3% 4% SUVs declined by 19.58 per cent 5% 0% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Commercial vehicles declined by 20.2 per cent Auto Sales growth LCVs declined by 17.6 per cent Growth for the auto segment MCVs and HCVs declined by 25.3 per cent 60% 50% Three wheelers declined by 10.9 per cent in FY14 40% 33% 33% 33% 28% 25% 25% 20% 16% Two-wheelers registered a growth of 7.31 per cent during 20% 13% 5% 5% 7% FY14 2% 3% 2% 3% 0% - 0% 0% 0% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Car sales rose 3 per cent following a stable government in 6% - -20% 11% the center - 20% -40% - 33% Source: SIAM, Aranca Research, News articles - Notes: E – Estimate, UV – Utility Vehicle Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers 10.0 9.0 CAGR: 16% Passenger vehicles to increase at a CAGR of 16 5.0 5.0 per cent during FY2013–20 3.2 - FY13 FY15 FY20 FY13 FY15 FY20 3.0 CAGR: 16% 2.2 2.0 Commercial vehicles expected to register a CAGR 1.4 of 16 per cent during FY2013–20 0.8 1.0 - FY13 FY15 FY20 FY13 FY15 FY20 40.0 CAGR: 9% 30.0 Two and three wheelers projected to expand at a 30.0 CAGR of 9 per cent during FY2013–20 16.8 22.0 20.0 10.0 - FY13 FY15 FY20 FY13 FY15 FY20 Source: SIAM, Vision 2020, Aranca Research The Indian luxury car market expanded at a CAGR of 30 per cent, with 23,000 units in 2011 (about 1 per cent of the passenger vehicle market in India). The market is Scenario dominated by players such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar. Audi sold 10,126 units in 2013-14, remaining the biggest luxury car seller over Mercedes-Benz which sold around 9,003 cars in calendar year 2013 India has the world’s 12th-largest HNI population, with a growth of 20.8 per cent (highest among the top 12 countries) Key drivers With expansion in the education and realty sectors, and increasing wealth of IT professionals, more consumers aspire to own luxury cars Affluent class of the country is driving the demand of the luxury cars The Indian luxury car market is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 25 per cent during 2012–20 and reach 150,000 units by 2020 (accounting for 4 per cent of the estimated Notable 6.8-million-unit domestic car market) trends The luxury SUV segment is growing at about 50 per cent, while luxury sedans are increasing at 25–30 per cent Audi to launch A3 sedan later in the year Source: World Wealth Report (2011) of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini, Aranca Research, News Articles Note: HNI - High Networth Individuals The automotives industry is concentrated with leaders in each segment commanding a share of over 40 per cent Market leader Others Passenger vehicles 45% 20% 10% 4% MCVs & HCVs 63% 23% 7% LCVs 59% 30% 4% 4% Three wheelers 41% 40% 10% Motorcycles 59% 24% 7% 6% Scooters 51% 21% 14% 10% Source: SIAM, Aranca Research Note: Data is for FY10 • Large number of products available to consumers across various segments; this has New product launches gathered pace with the entry of a number of foreign players • Reduced overall product lifecycle have forced players to employ quick product launches Improving product- • Increasing R&D investments from both the government and the private sector • Private sector innovation has been a key determinant of growth in the sector; two good development examples are Tata Nano and Tata Pixel; while the former has been a success in India, the capabilities latter is intended for foreign markets •
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