Households, Populations & Complex Socio-Ecological Systems in the Amazon

Eduardo S. Brondizio Department of Anthropology Center for the Analysis of Social Ecological Landscapes (CASEL) The Ostrom Workshop in Policy Analysis and Political Theory Indiana University Bloomington, United States

SESYNC – University of Maryland Anthropology Immersion Workshop Feb 29-March 3, 2016 Illustrative research examples

Households change and urbanization

Territorial governance and collective action

Connectivity and emergent regional complexity T he Steffen et al 2015. Great Global Acceleration … and its regionalits manifestations Brondizio 2013 Accelerated Inter-Connections

2010 Costa, Brondizio 2010 S. Costa, UNIVAP 2013 Urban Centers Cell-phone Towers - 1994-2012

L. Eloy et al 2014 Road network Reserves and protected areas A history of STRUCTURAL DETERMINISM:

[Military] Central geopolitical planning Land use decisions

National Development Deforestation rates

programs

External factors factors External – Infrastructure Demographic trends

Global/external Economic development markets Urbanization trends National & global

Structural determinants determinants Structural conservation agenda “State shift”: Changing regional context

1988 Constitutional reform Re-democratization 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Municipal code changes Geopolitical/national integration Territorial recognition Indigenous and local populations

Infrastructure grid Economic stabilization Structured colonization International pressures and agreements Socio-demographic Mining expansion Deforestation policies Credit incentives Sustainable development subsidies Commodity expansion

Multiculturalism and social movements

Cash transfer programs

.Connectivity of transportation Sectoral [economic] organization/Lobbying .Mobility Conservation territories .Communications Forest code .Energy .Social movements REDD+ programs .Individual expectations Theoretical tools at different levels Examples of specific research topics: Political Ecology and critique of development

Urbanization and inter-urban networks

global -

World system theory Inter Dependency theory Connectivity in social-ecological systems

IPAT - Regional National Impact of global markets

Landscape patterns & Agrarian settlements

Demographic transition Urban

- ‘Kuznets’ & development theories

Central place Institutional Analysis

Ethnic

Inter –

Commodity chains - Von thunem Communal

regional regional ‘Boserup’ intensification - Land use and cover change

Barth Generative model Sub

Adaptation to climate change

- Territorial Cultural ecology Collective action Agricultural intensification

Symbolic ecology Kinship - Institutional arrangements & social capital Kinship – segmentary

Family life cycle Individual

‘Chayanov’ model Household socio-demography and life cycles

Household Household – Household economy ‘Bourdieu’ Practice and habitus

Bounded rationality Family Family Ethnobiology / Cognitive models Ethnobotanical and forest knowledge … Theoretical tools at different levels Ex. Theoretical perspectives

global Complex systems theories -

World system theory Inter Dependency theory

IPAT - Giddens Structuration

Regional National Sewell’s theory of structures

Demographic transition Barth’s Generative model Urban

- ‘Kuznets’ & development theories

Central place Ethnic

Inter Steward’s Levels of social integration

– - Von thunem Communal

regional regional ‘Boserup’ intensification -

Barth Generative model Ex. Analytical frameworks Sub

- Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) Territorial Cultural ecology Collective action

Symbolic ecology Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR)

Kinship - Urban teleconnections Kinship – segmentary

Family life cycle Individual

‘Chayanov’ model Land Use & Cover Change (LUCC) frameworks

Household Household –

‘Bourdieu’ Practice and habitus Institutional Analysis & Development (IAD) Bounded rationality Family Family Ethnobiology / Cognitive models Research Sites

Comparative research Longitudinal Cross-sectional Nested sampling Collaborative Illustrative research examples

Households change and urbanization

Historical and cultural differences, common problems Longitudinal Research … 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

1989 2008 2014

Culture ecology and adaptation Political ecology of land rights & resource tenure Liberation theology interventions Sustainable development projects Intensification and market networks Conditional Cash Transfers and consumption Decline of annual crop agriculture Multi-locality and access to urban services Changing intergenerational expectations Urban growth, violence, pollution Land Tenure, Liberation Theology, Agricultural “Modernization”

Marajo Island 1989 Social Processes and Land Change Cooperative Riverine Communities Communities (% area) (% area) Forest farmers of the Amazon estuary

Brondizio 2008. The Amazonian Caboclo and the Acai palm: forest farmers in the global market. NYBG Press. Small scale management, large scale agroforestry intensification

~1985* 1990 2004 2012

Source: IBGE/SIDRA Production expansion of Acai Fruit Brondizio 2008; 2013 Views of Productive Land and the Political Ecology of Invisibility

As ‘native’ forest as intensive agroforestry “Invisible producer”  into  most significant regional land use system!

Brondizio et al. 1996, 2001, 2004; 2008, 2011 Commodity Chains: Follow that Thing

Brondizio 2008 Value chain and product transformation away from the region An estimated economy of US$2 Billion

Adding value, 1 hectare production of acai fruit

80000 70000 Main season Off-season 60000 50000 * 40000 30000 20000 10000

0 production fruit of US$/ha

Retailer pulp Natal, RN

Retailer juice Natal, RN

Acaizal (fruit) Ilhas, PA

Retailer pulp Brasilia, DF

Retailer juice Brasilia, DF

Açaí type A (thick) Belem

Retailer pulp Sao Paulo, SP

Retailer juice Sao Paulo, SP

Açaizal (fruit) P. Pedras, PA Market (fruit) P. Pedras, PA

Açaí type (thin)C Belem (h.

Açaí type (medium)B Belem

Retailer pulp California, USA

Retailer juice California, USA

Retailer pulp S. J. Campos, SP Retailer pulp R. de Janeiro, RJ

Retailer juice S. J. Campos, SP Retailer juice R. de Janeiro, RJ

Açaizal (fruit) Abaetetuba, PA Açaí type (thin)C Belem (low

Retailer "cream" Sao Paulo, SP

Açaí type (thin)C Macapa, AP

Açaí type A (thick) Belem (low

Açaí market, broker, Belem, PA

Açaí type A (thick) Macapa, AP

Açaí type (thin)C P. Pedras, PA

Retailer "cream" S. J. Campos, SP Retailer "cream" R. de Janeiro, RJ

Açaí type (medium)B Belem (low

Açaí type A (thick) P. Pedras, PA

Açaí type (medium)B Macapa, AP

Industrialized açaí cream, Sao Paulo,

Açaí type (medium)B P. Pedras, PA Açaí market, middlemen, Belem, PA

Industry Belem/region, PA (type B/C

Brondizio, E. S. 2008. The Amazonian Caboclo and the Acai Palm: Forest farmers in the Global Market. New York: NYBG Press. Household economy and dependency, Marajo Island, Brazil

Acai fruit economy

Conditional Cash Transfers Retirement Fishing ‘insurance’ Other transfers

Data: ACT, Indiana University MS. Thesis Gamez, L. 2013.

Rural-Urban Connections and Multi-Sited Households

Brondizio, E. S., N. Vogt, and A. Siqueira 2013 The Social Life of Forests. The University of Chicago Press. Padoch et al 2008. Ecology and Society Pinedo-Vasquez et al 2010. Cadernos do NAEA Cabrera et al 2010. ABM Modeling Eloy et al 2014 Urban expansion 1969-2010: Ponta de Pedras, Marajo Island, PA, Brazil

2011 Research group of Prof. Sandra Costa (UNIVAP, S.J.Campos, SP) Climate change: The face of urban vulnerability

60-90% population moderate to very high degree of vulnerability =[lack infrastructure, flood risk, income, social indicators]

Mansur et al 2016., Brondizio et al 2016 Figure 6: Belem residents document flooding and spill of sewage drainage channels

2005

2014

2013

Photos by: José Alexandre de Jesus Costa and members of the "Frente dos Brondizio 2016. TNOC Moradores Prejudicados da Bacia do Una” Belem, PA, Brazil 2008 Linking Observed Hydrological Changes at the Basin Level to Local Knowledge in the Delta

Vogt et al submitted PNAS Local Elevation Categories and Areas for Sensing Inter-Annual Variations in Flood Patterns Urbanization and the Changing Nature of Collective Action Problems

Functional Inter-dependence: limits to local level responses Insolvent municipalities cannot respond to demand A Social-Ecological Perspective to Collective action problems: Urban Pollution-Local Fishing grounds

Brondizio, E. S., S. Hetrick, N. Vogt, S. Costa, E. Anthony. 2016. A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Deltas as Coupled Social Ecological Systems: An example from the Amazon River Delta and Estuary. Sustainability Sciences Territorial governance and collective action Understanding community formation as a process • Region Household

Community

• Size and density • History of settlement • Institutional and land tenure • Kinship and social networks arrangement • Demographic history • Political leadership • Collective identity – Soccer • Conflict history – Religion • Public and private – Rituals and celebration infrastructure – Land Use and Economic – Transportation, water, identity school, health center Figure 1: Evolving institutional complexity in the lower Amazon

Pará Brazil Legend % Municipal Capitals Municipality Limits Road and Trail Network - 2010 Primary Rivers

Federal Conservation Unit Federal Land in Process of Land Tenure Regularization State Land in Process of Land Tenure Regularization Mining Concession Federal Smallholder Settlement Project State Smallholder Settlement Project State Agro-Extractive Settlement Project Federal Agro-Extractive Settlement Project Federeral Conservation Settlement Project Federal Public Forest for Timber Concessions Nathan Vogt - INPE April 2013

Brondizio et al n.d. Island of Landscape Governance: Connectivity and the limits of level specific governance systems

ISA 2008. Xavante Indigenous Reserve Xingu Indigenous Park Ka’apor Indigenous Reserve

> 40% in Indigenous and Conservation areas

Brondizio et al 2009; Welch et al 2014 Connectivity & pressures around Indigenous lands/conservation areas

Deforestation [Prodes 2014] Fire events 2005-2015

Source: Juan Doblas, ISA/Programa Xingu “Populações tradicionais e proteção territorial: o caso da Terra do Meio” IPBES seminar Nov 15, 2015. University of Sao Paulo. Reaction and Pro-Action:

Small farmers, communities protesting soy expansion and water pollution (Santarem/BR 163, field photos)

Indigenous Militia against loggers The Washington Post, Nov. 2015

Discussing reforestation plans across boundaries (Canarana, Xingu Indigenous Park, Rosely A. Sanchez) New project: Co-evolution of urban networks, agropastoral areas, reserves Connectivity and emergent regional complexity Building blocks of interactions and regional transformation(s)

Global economic chains

National-global • Development policies teleconnections Agropastoral expansion Regional Connectivity Urbanization

Inter-urban Rural-Urban Networks articulation Community formation Intra- regional variability Rural transformation Settlement expansion Family life cycle & dynamics

Inter-generational change

Household decisions Individual preferences

Brondizio 2013 The Formation of Inter-regional urban networks

Model  Three levels of hierarchy

1st  Process of Urban Growth from a Rural Structure

Market Social network Access* Mobility Services*

Associations Rural (Rural Properties) ------ Villages ------ Small Cities

2nd  Configuration Process of Interurban and Subregional Network

Market Access* Mobility*

Services Social Network

Small/Medium Cities ------ Small/Medium Cities

3rd  Development of Amazon Urban Network Market*

Services* Telecommunication network

Transport system* Political centers *

Industrial c enters* Mobility*

Infrastructure*

Large Cities ------ Large Cities

Guedes, G., S. M. Costa, and E. S. Brondizio. (2009) Population and Environment ; Brondizio et al 2013 Levels of Analysis

BR 163 – BR 152

Regional Xingu Basin – Delta

Focal Areas Physical infrastructure Social & demographicSocial& Historical& cultural Legalfiscal& Institutional Economic A complex system perspective

Structural determinants

Constraints - Opportunities

building blocks building – Interactions Agency & action & Agency Perceptionpreferences& Assets & Opportunitysituation Socialcapital Networks alliances& convertability Final Remarks

Co-evolution of inter-urban networks, agrarian expansion, and territorial conservation will shape Amazonian landscapes in the coming 20 years

Bridging Institutions as social capital in complex landscapes

Persisting extractivist frame of development from commodities to carbon

Structural limitations of insolvent local economies.

Complex Systems thinking for understanding and inform Thank You!