Kazakhstan's Example in Promoting Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation

September 2017 Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation oxan.com

CONTENTS

2 Introduction

4 The humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and nuclear testing

4 Removal of nuclear warheads

6 Nuclear disarmament

7 Cooperative Threat Reduction Program

7 Closure of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site

8 Nuclear safety

9 Contributions to nuclear security summits

10 Safe handling of nuclear materials

11 Mobilising global support through the United Nations

12 Empowerment through disarmament

Cover images: Equipment found on the Semipalatinsk Test Site Craters and boreholes dot the former Soviet Union nuclear test site at Semipalatinsk: Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Kurchatov city: RIA Novosti archive, image #440215 / Alexander Liskin / CC-BY-SA 3.0 The Opening Plenary of the Nuclear Security Summit 2016: narendramodiofficial Missile launch tubes removed from a ballistic missile submarine: Department of Defense’s Cooperative Threat Reduction Program OSI specialists gather gas samples from the ground to be examined for traces of the noble gas argon as evidence of an underground nuclear explosion: CTBTO Preparatory Commission Helicopter carrying a magnetometer: CTBTO Preparatory Commission

1 Kazakhstan’sGlobal nuclear example order: Kazakhstan’s in promoting legacy nuclear in non-proliferation oxan.com

Introduction Nuclear warhead status (estimated as of November 3, 2016*) = 20 warheads This report comes at a crucial time when the foundation of the global nuclear order, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is in a precarious state. DEPLOYED STOCKPILED RETIRED Russia

Enacted in 1970, the NPT outlines the underlying principles that guide nuclear policies. 1,796 4,500 2,800 Now, with 191 states party to this treaty, it provides a forum for states to engage on issues of United States disarmament, non-proliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. However, the current review cycle for the NPT, which will conclude in 2020, is taking place in an increas- 1,367 4,571 2,500 ingly difficult geopolitical environment. Profound disagreements between participating states France 300 are likely to derail the 2020 NPT Review Conference, as they did in 2005 and 2015. China 260 The future of US-Russia arms control is uncertain due to diverging views in Washington and United Kingdom 40 175 Moscow on what further reductions should include. Furthermore, North Korea continues to Pakistan 140 challenge the global nuclear order by testing nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. India 110 These critical issues and other related trends are creating serious risks to international North Korea** 8 stability and overshadow the future of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. * Estimates of Israel’s undeclared arsenal vary widely (between 80 and 400); ** Status of North Korea’s warheads not veriﬁed As confidence wanes, however, recent history offers examples of how states can uphold the principles of disarmament, non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. One …but pending items on Washington’s policy agenda could increase bilateral nuclear tensions important case study is Kazakhstan. To date Kazakhstan remains the only country to have completely sealed its nuclear testing sites and removed all nuclear warheads and weapons- Expansion of the US nuclear Activation of the US missile Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may grade nuclear material from its territory. Furthermore, it has become an active participant in arsenal beyond the ongoing defence site in Poland on track be the greatest restriction on 1-trillion-dollar modernisation could for 2018 may sour early-stage Trump disengaging from the global initiatives to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons and reduce the risks associated spark parallel eorts in Russia. US outreach to Moscow. Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre. with peaceful use of nuclear materials.

Global nuclear warhead stocks have fallen from their Cold War highs…

Stockpiled warhead count (thousand warheads)

Global total 40

United States 20

Trump pressuring Tehran despite Upgrades to US conventional Trump may be overestimating Iranian nuclear deal compliance weaponry in Asia could prompt China’s capability -- let alone Russia could split European governments China to upgrade its nuclear forces willingness -- to force nuclear 0 from Washington. to preserve retaliatory capability. policy changes in Pyongyang.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources: Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook, Oxford Analytica

2 Kazakhstan’sGlobal nuclear example order: Kazakhstan’s in promoting legacy nuclear in non-proliferation oxan.com

Nuclear warhead status (estimated as of November 3, 2016*) = 20 warheads

DEPLOYED STOCKPILED RETIRED Russia

1,796 4,500 2,800

United States

1,367 4,571 2,500

France 300

China 260

United Kingdom 40 175

Pakistan 140 India 110

North Korea** 8

* Estimates of Israel’s undeclared arsenal vary widely (between 80 and 400); ** Status of North Korea’s warheads not veriﬁed

…but pending items on Washington’s policy agenda could increase bilateral nuclear tensions

Expansion of the US nuclear Activation of the US missile Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may arsenal beyond the ongoing defence site in Poland on track be the greatest restriction on 1-trillion-dollar modernisation could for 2018 may sour early-stage Trump disengaging from the spark parallel eorts in Russia. US outreach to Moscow. Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre.

Global nuclear warhead stocks have fallen from their Cold War highs…

Stockpiled warhead count (thousand warheads)

Global total 40

United States 20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources: Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook, Oxford Analytica

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The humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and nuclear testing

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan of a leadership role in disarmament and nuclear found itself an independent nuclear-armed state with non-proliferation. the world’s fourth-largest arsenal of 1,410 nuclear warheads. In addition to logistical challenges of It has continued to take an active part in UN-based managing and securing such a vast arsenal, it also initiatives and has been a regional leader promoting inherited a large nuclear testing complex. This the Central Asian Nuclear-Free Zone established in included the world’s largest site at Semipalatinsk, 2009. This has become the first multilateral security which had already exposed around 1.5 million of agreement to include all five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan’s population to high levels of radiation. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan continues to campaign for On becoming independent, Kazakhstan rapidly relin- the establishment of similar zones in other parts of quished all of the nuclear weapons and dismantled the world, especially in the Middle East. the test sites in close and consistent cooperation with the international community. In 1992, it signed The country has also participated in the Humanitarian the Lisbon Protocol of the Non-Proliferation of Impacts (HI) of nuclear weapons initiative launched Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) and declared itself in 2012 by the Norwegian government. This aims a non-nuclear weapon state upon joining the NPT. to increase awareness of the risks associated with nuclear weapons possession. President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s decision to shut down the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site after HI has convened meetings in Oslo (March 2013), years of radioactive fallout and debris signified a Nayarit (February 2014) and Vienna (December milestone in Kazakh public policy towards a respon- 2014) and this has resulted in a Humanitarian Pledge, sible use of nuclear resources and the assumption signed by 159 countries, including Kazakhstan.

Removal of nuclear warheads

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, former the latter in particular required substantially more Soviet states reached an agreement whereby Soviet diplomatic negotiations. A series of bilateral negoti- military and nuclear forces would remain wherever ations produced an agreement which transferred they were located. At the time, it was not immedi- responsibility for the safety and maintenance of ately clear whether or not Kazakhstan, along with these nuclear warheads to Russia. Ukraine and Belarus, would relinquish former Soviet nuclear arsenals. In April 1995, the last of Kazakhstan’s warheads were transported to Russia, two months ahead of However, in 1994, Kazakhstan’s leadership decided schedule: 16 missile regiments had been decom- to voluntarily relinquish control of the nuclear armed missioned and disbanded and their ICBMs and forces stationed on Kazakh territory in favour of warheads, together with more than 18,000 metric greater security and stability. Similar agreements tons of missile fuel components, had been trans- were reached with Ukraine and Belarus, although ported to military sites in Russia.

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Semipalatinsk was one of the world’s most-used testing sites and became home to the ﬁrst anti-nuclear movement in the Soviet Union ‘89 First Soviet anti-nuclear movement Nevada campaigns 1990 for closure of Semipalatinsk

Kazakhstan signs the Lisbon Protocol ‘92 to the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty ‘93 Ratiﬁes the Non-Proliferation Treaty and joins Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Under Budapest Memorandum obtains ‘94 Threat Reduction Program security guarantees from Russia, US, UK (later joined by France and China) ‘95 Completes the transfer of all nuclear warheads

Joins multilateral negotiating platform, ‘99 Conference on Disarmament 2000 ‘00 Dismantles Semipalatinsk Hosts the international conference ‘01 21st century: Towards a nuclear-weapons- free world ‘02 Ratiﬁes the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Establishes International Monitoring System facilities Signs an additional IAEA Protocol ‘04 on inspections

‘06 Signs the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty Equips 19 ports, airports and border ‘07 crossings with nuclear detection technology to deter illegal transfer of nuclear materials ‘09 UN recognises August 29 as international day against nuclear tests 2010 Completes the transfer to a long-term ‘10 ‘11 Starts the annual storage facility of spent fuel from the Nuclear Discussion Forum (NDF) BN-350 fast breeder reactor ‘12 IAEA agrees to deploy the world ﬁrst Hosts Countering the Financing of international nuclear fuel bank Nuclear Terrorism conference US, Russia and Kazakhstan adopt a Joint Statement on Trilateral Cooperation at Semipalatinsk site Presides over the Conference on ‘14 ‘13 Hosts two rounds of P5+1 talks on Iran’s Disarmament (May-June) nuclear programme ‘15 Kazakhstan’s eorts lead to the UN adopting a Declaration on a nuclear-weapon-free world Holds Astana Conference ‘16 on Nuclear Disarmament Kazakh Parliament ratiﬁes the IAEA ‘17 Hosts the Syria peace talks convened by agreement on Low Enriched Uranium Bank Russia, Iran and Turkey

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Nuclear disarmament

The strategic rocket forces, stationed in Kazakhstan Semipalatinsk. The latter had conducted 456 nuclear at Leninsk, Zhangiz-Tobe, Derzhavinsk and Semipa- tests between 1949 and 1989. By contrast the the latinsk, were equipped with 104 of the Soviet Union’s Baikonur cosmodrome, which served as the launch SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles. Each of site for most of the Soviet Union’s military and indus- these was capable of delivering ten independently trial satellites since Sputnik 1 in 1957, has continued targeted nuclear warheads. An air base at Chagan to operate. hosted 47 TU-92M bombers and 320 nuclear cruise missiles. Kazakhstan also came into possession of a Kazakhstan’s nuclear disarmament efforts have nuclear manufacturing complex at Ust-Kamenogorsk, included: as well as a nuclear testing and storage facilities at Kokshetau. ―― decommissioning the Semipalatinsk nuclear facility where 456 nuclear tests were conducted over 18,500 square kilometres; ―― transferring all the nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles to Russia; ―― removing 600kg of weapons-grade uranium and 2,900kg of nuclear fuel in partnership with the United States; ―― submitting a joint proposal with Japan to the United Nations to establish an international norm against nuclear tests; and ―― offering to host the Nuclear Security Summit in

Kurchatov city, the centre of the Semipalatinsk nuclear addition to the early rounds of talks held as part test site. of the P5+1 aimed at discussing Iran’s nuclear Within just a few years of gaining independence, deal. It has also hosted a round of the Syria Kazakhstan removed its nuclear warheads and peace talks in 2017. closed the Soviet nuclear test sites, including that at

Figure 1. Kazakhstan’s dismantled and sealed nuclear test sites

Nuclear warheads Degelen Mountain Complex All warheads transported to Russia 181 underground nuclear testing tunnels sealed

Derzhavinsk Astana Semipalatinsk (Balapan) Silo destruction 104 combat silos for the SS-18s and Ust-Kamenogorsk two training silos dismantled Zhangiz-Tobe

Project Sapphire Close to 600kg of weapons-grade Tyuratam (Leninsk) uranium transported to the United test facility States

Almaty Establishment of the new National Export Control System

Decommissioned nuclear facilities

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Cooperative Threat Reduction Program

In its efforts to eliminate the threat of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, Kazakhstan has consistently sought the support and assistance of international partners. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program – also referred to as the “Nunn-Lugar” Agreement after US Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar – became the key area of interaction and cooperation between Kazakhstan and the United States.

The programme provided US investment and expertise to safeguard nuclear, chemical and Missile launch tubes removed from a ballistic missile biological weapons, material, facilities, and expertise submarine are eliminated with equipment and services provided by the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. in the former Soviet Union. In Kazakhstan, the programme achieved: 600kg of weapons-grade uranium to US-based secure facilities in compliance with IAEA ―― the destruction of 148 silos; safeguards and so improve nuclear safety and ―― the dismantling of infrastructure related to these security measures; silos. ―― conversion of the country’s nuclear industry to civilian purposes; At the Semipalatinsk nuclear testing site, the ―― development of a modern system of export programme successfully achieved: control for dual-use products; and ―― transportation of the spent nuclear fuel from one ―― sealing of 13 boreholes and 181 tunnels; of the world’s first fast breeder reactor, known ―― completion of Project Sapphire to remove as BN-350, to safe storage.

Closure of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site

The Semipalatinsk testing complex opened in 1947 adopted six resolutions between 1997 and 2009 and became the site of the first Soviet nuclear calling on the international community to support weapons test in 1949. Occupying a total of 18,500 Kazakhstan’s efforts to overcome the humanitarian square kilometres, 456 nuclear tests were conducted problems related to the Semipalatinsk testing site. at the site during the Soviet era. Many of the government support programmes – After the ratification of the Limited Test Ban Treaty including medical assistance to those who had in 1963, when nuclear testing was prohibited above been affected by their proximity to the nuclear test ground, in space, and under water, Soviet testing sites – are still in place 25 years later, dealing with activity shifted to the largest underground nuclear problems such as increased occurrences of birth test site in the world at the Degelen Mountain defects and cardiovascular diseases. Studies have complex. At Degelen, 224 tests were conducted in shown the rate of cancer in the affected regions is large tunnels drilled deep into the mountains. 25-30% higher than in the rest of the country.

Kazakhstan has raised awareness of the direct and indirect consequences of nuclear testing at a global level, and in return the UN General Assembly

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Nuclear safety

With its large stockpiles of nuclear materials and To put this in context, according to data released nuclear-related infrastructure, Kazakhstan presented by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, nearly 2,000 metric a severe risk for nuclear smuggling or accidents tons of weapons-grade nuclear materials remain in following the collapse of the Soviet Union. storage across 24 countries; some are in facilities which are poorly secured and vulnerable to theft. Under the terms of the NPT protocol signed in 1992, Kazakhstan opened all of its nuclear facil- To address this threat as part of a multilateral effort, ities and nuclear materials to periodic inspection Kazakhstan acceded to the Convention on the and monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Physical Protection of Nuclear Material in 2005 and Agency (IAEA). ratified its Amendment in 2011.

Shortly thereafter, in 1994, Kazakhstan worked with Since 2008, it has served as a party to the Inter- the United States on a joint project, Project Sapphire, national Convention for the Suppression of Acts of to remove 600kg of weapons-grade uranium to Nuclear Terrorism and has taken part in the activities US-based secure facilities in compliance with IAEA of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism safeguards. (GICNT), including:

The industrial complex of Ulbinsky (Ulba) Metallurgy ―― implementation of export control systems and Plant produced fuel for nuclear propulsion reactors introduction of internal compliance for the main used in submarines. The amount of highly enriched nuclear exporters; uranium (HEU) stored at the complex was enough to ―― development and enforcement of a National make 20-25 nuclear weapons. Safeguarding these Response Plan, which addresses issues of illicit materials was of critical importance. trafficking and illegal actions involving nuclear materials; and On November 20, 1994 two US Air Force C-5 cargo ―― establishment of the Identification Centre aircraft were commissioned to carry the HEU from for Nuclear and Radioactive Materials in Ust-Kamenogorsk to a military base in the United Kazakhstan’s National Nuclear Centre. The States. The uranium was later transported to a safe Centre will develop a database with passports storage facility and finally reprocessed into fuel for for all nuclear and radioactive sources nuclear power plants. fabricated in or imported to Kazakhstan, allowing for the identification of the source of Additionally, in 2001 Project Sapphire worked to production. remove 2,900kg of nuclear fuel.

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The Opening Plenary of the Nuclear Security Summit 2016 in Washington DC on April 1, 2016.

Contributions to nuclear security summits

Kazakhstan has actively participated in the Nuclear Law prescribes further enhancement of the Security Summits, an initiative begun by President state system for control of radioactive materials Barack Obama. So far, there have been four head-of- and other sources of ionising radiation); state level summits: in Washington in 2010, Seoul in ―― upgrading of the physical protection systems 2012, The Hague in 2014, and again in Washington in the Institute of Nuclear Physics and Ulba in 2016. Metallurgical Plant; and ―― establishment of the Nuclear Security Training Since 2014, Kazakhstan has taken practical steps Centre, which will offer training in the areas of to strengthen nuclear security and promote the nuclear non-proliferation, material protection, peaceful use of atomic energy. These have included: control of, and accounting for (and countering), the illicit trafficking of nuclear and other ―― enforcement of the new edition of the Law on radioactive materials. the Use of Atomic Energy in January 2016 (the

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Safe handling of nuclear materials

Since 2009, the country has been the world’s Figure 2. Kazakh uranium production largest uranium producer, accounting for almost (thousand metric tonnes per year) 40% of the total world output. Kazakhstan holds the 25 world’s second largest proven reserves of uranium, estimated at over 900,000 tonnes. It aims to export 20 high value added uranium products in the next five years. 15

This comes with responsibility for the long-term 10 outlook regarding nuclear security issues, including the storage and transportation of the material, which 5 Kazakhstan has addressed through partnership with the IAEA. 2000 2005 2010 2015 The government is currently engaged in creating a vertically integrated nuclear fuel cycle complex, downblending of HEU from the Institute of Nuclear which will include uranium conversion and Physics in Almaty into LEU at the Ulba Metallurgy enrichment, as well as fuel assembly production. Plant, and the transfer for safe storage of spent fuel It has a well-developed scientific research base, from the BN-350 reactor at Mangistau. including three research reactors in operation and several other nuclear installations. It also has By August 2015, high standards of nuclear safety 25 years of experience operating the BN-350 fast allowed Kazakhstan to reach an agreement with the breeder reactor, although this was terminated in IAEA to establish a LEU Bank. By the end of 2017, 1999. Kazakhstan is scheduled to finish the construction of the LEU Bank storage facility and start shipping Kazakhstan aims to leverage its experience in the the LEU to the Ulba Metallurgy Plant. The LEU uranium industry through negotiating transfers of Bank in Kazakhstan is part of a global effort to technology with its international partners, including create a guaranteed market supply of nuclear fuel the United States, Canada, China and Russia, to countries in case of disruption or disturbance of possibly in exchange for raw materials. existing supply arrangements.

To improve nuclear security, Kazakhstan launched Kazakhstan is also a member of the Nuclear programmes for the safe handling of HEU materials Suppliers Group, which seeks to contribute to the on its territory and for minimising HEU technol- non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the ogies in the civilian cycle. Achievements in this implementation of guidelines for nuclear-related area include the conversion of atomic research exports. reactor VVR-K to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel,

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Mobilising global support through the United Nations

The Kazakh Foreign Policy Concept for 2014-2020 has at its core the goal of strengthening global and regional security. It proposes to work towards this through mobilising efforts to promote a world free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, participation in development of multilateral mechanisms for a comprehensive ban and destruction of such weapons, and the creation of zones free of nuclear weapons.

In June 2016, Kazakhstan was elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2017-2018, and its bid for Security Council membership identified nuclear security as one of its four main priority areas. are located in Kazakhstan, including three auxiliary In 2015, Kazakhstan proposed a resolution on the seismological stations at Borovoye, Kurchatov and Universal Declaration for the Achievement of a Aktyubinsk; an infrasound station at Aktyubinsk; and Nuclear-Weapon-Free World, and this was supported a primary seismic station at Makanchi. by the majority of UN member states and adopted in December 2015. It outlined the basic principles and IMS facilities record data using four complementary objectives of nuclear disarmament and promoted technologies – seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound the adoption of legally binding international instru- and radionuclide – and are capable of registering ments to prohibit and destroy all nuclear weapons. vibrations from a possible nuclear explosion underground, in the seas and in the air. They are also The Permanent Mission of the Republic of Kazakhstan capable of detecting noble gases released into the to the United Nations in New York has organised atmosphere as a result of a nuclear test. the Nuclear Discussion Forum (NDF) for the last six years. The NDF provides a platform for dialogue on The CTBT itself has not yet fully entered into force the most pressing issues of nuclear disarmament and is unlikely to do so in the near future. For this and non-proliferation at the ambassadorial level of to be fully enforced it would require membership of Heads of Mission to the United Nations, together 44 states with specific nuclear capabilities, eight of with experts and military advisers. which (China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United States) have yet to sign Additionally, Kazakhstan ratified the Comprehensive and/or ratify the treaty. However, despite complex Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in May 2002. The CTBT has membership requirements, the CTBT continues to developed an extensive verification network known contribute to the global nuclear regime through its as the International Monitoring System (IMS), which monitoring system. now has 321 stations worldwide. Several IMS facilities

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Figure 3. Kazakhstan’s vision of a nuclear-weapon-free world

Manifesto. The World. Leading by example The 21st Century

Atom Project ED HANC GLOB EN PERAT AL COO ION Creation of Global Intergovernmental Dialogue Security Public Award Facilitation of C I (eg. talks on Iran) T V N IC Initiating the International E M Day Against Nuclear Tests M O A V M E R

M A Hosting conferences

E S

N D Establishment of T Central Asian Introduction of G-Global Initiative nuclear arms free zone

F I G F Y T H G E T O R R E E Establishment of LEU Bank R A S N O G U E R AI E IS NS AF AR M T S LE NUC Participation in Nuclear Suppliers Group

Membership in Zangger Committee

Compliance with IAEA standards Partner Nationto Combat in Global Initiative

Nuclear Terrorism

Empowerment through disarmament

Kazakhstan’s experience also points to the global In 2013, Kazakhstan hosted two rounds of negotia- role that states that withdraw from nuclear weapons tions on the Iranian nuclear programme and played programmes can play: they can be empowered an active role in the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan, rather than diminished by such withdrawal. assisting with the repatriation of sensitive military equipment from the region. In addition to its own contributions to nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear security, Kazakhstan Most recently, in 2017, Astana was chosen as the has played an active role as an interlocutor site for the Syrian peace talks convened by Russia, between the Muslim world, Russia and the West. Iran and Turkey, illustrating its growing role in inter- This was helped by the country’s political neutrality, national diplomacy. This role would almost certainly geographic position connecting Asia and Europe, have been impossible had Kazakhstan chosen a and demonstrated leadership in Central Asia. course of maintaining its initial nuclear status.

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