Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation September 2017 Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation oxan.com CONTENTS 2 Introduction 4 The humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and nuclear testing 4 Removal of nuclear warheads 6 Nuclear disarmament 7 Cooperative Threat Reduction Program 7 Closure of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site 8 Nuclear safety 9 Contributions to nuclear security summits 10 Safe handling of nuclear materials 11 Mobilising global support through the United Nations 12 Empowerment through disarmament Cover images: Equipment found on the Semipalatinsk Test Site Craters and boreholes dot the former Soviet Union nuclear test site at Semipalatinsk: Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Kurchatov city: RIA Novosti archive, image #440215 / Alexander Liskin / CC-BY-SA 3.0 The Opening Plenary of the Nuclear Security Summit 2016: narendramodiofficial Missile launch tubes removed from a ballistic missile submarine: Department of Defense’s Cooperative Threat Reduction Program OSI specialists gather gas samples from the ground to be examined for traces of the noble gas argon as evidence of an underground nuclear explosion: CTBTO Preparatory Commission Helicopter carrying a magnetometer: CTBTO Preparatory Commission 1 Kazakhstan’sGlobal nuclear example order: Kazakhstan’s in promoting legacy nuclear in non-proliferation oxan.com Introduction Nuclear warhead status (estimated as of November 3, 2016*) = 20 warheads This report comes at a crucial time when the foundation of the global nuclear order, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is in a precarious state. DEPLOYED STOCKPILED RETIRED Russia Enacted in 1970, the NPT outlines the underlying principles that guide nuclear policies. 1,796 4,500 2,800 Now, with 191 states party to this treaty, it provides a forum for states to engage on issues of United States disarmament, non-proliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. However, the current review cycle for the NPT, which will conclude in 2020, is taking place in an increas- 1,367 4,571 2,500 ingly difficult geopolitical environment. Profound disagreements between participating states France 300 are likely to derail the 2020 NPT Review Conference, as they did in 2005 and 2015. China 260 The future of US-Russia arms control is uncertain due to diverging views in Washington and United Kingdom 40 175 Moscow on what further reductions should include. Furthermore, North Korea continues to Pakistan 140 challenge the global nuclear order by testing nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. India 110 These critical issues and other related trends are creating serious risks to international North Korea** 8 stability and overshadow the future of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. * Estimates of Israel’s undeclared arsenal vary widely (between 80 and 400); ** Status of North Korea’s warheads not verified As confidence wanes, however, recent history offers examples of how states can uphold the principles of disarmament, non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. One …but pending items on Washington’s policy agenda could increase bilateral nuclear tensions important case study is Kazakhstan. To date Kazakhstan remains the only country to have completely sealed its nuclear testing sites and removed all nuclear warheads and weapons- Expansion of the US nuclear Activation of the US missile Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may grade nuclear material from its territory. Furthermore, it has become an active participant in arsenal beyond the ongoing defence site in Poland on track be the greatest restriction on 1-trillion-dollar modernisation could for 2018 may sour early-stage Trump disengaging from the global initiatives to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons and reduce the risks associated spark parallel eorts in Russia. US outreach to Moscow. Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre. with peaceful use of nuclear materials. Global nuclear warhead stocks have fallen from their Cold War highs… Stockpiled warhead count (thousand warheads) 60 Global total 40 United States 20 Trump pressuring Tehran despite Upgrades to US conventional Trump may be overestimating Iranian nuclear deal compliance weaponry in Asia could prompt China’s capability -- let alone Russia could split European governments China to upgrade its nuclear forces willingness -- to force nuclear 0 from Washington. to preserve retaliatory capability. policy changes in Pyongyang. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources: Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook, Oxford Analytica 2 Kazakhstan’sGlobal nuclear example order: Kazakhstan’s in promoting legacy nuclear in non-proliferation oxan.com Nuclear warhead status (estimated as of November 3, 2016*) = 20 warheads DEPLOYED STOCKPILED RETIRED Russia 1,796 4,500 2,800 United States 1,367 4,571 2,500 France 300 China 260 United Kingdom 40 175 Pakistan 140 India 110 North Korea** 8 * Estimates of Israel’s undeclared arsenal vary widely (between 80 and 400); ** Status of North Korea’s warheads not verified …but pending items on Washington’s policy agenda could increase bilateral nuclear tensions Expansion of the US nuclear Activation of the US missile Pakistan’s nuclear weapons may arsenal beyond the ongoing defence site in Poland on track be the greatest restriction on 1-trillion-dollar modernisation could for 2018 may sour early-stage Trump disengaging from the spark parallel eorts in Russia. US outreach to Moscow. Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre. Global nuclear warhead stocks have fallen from their Cold War highs… Stockpiled warhead count (thousand warheads) 60 Global total 40 United States 20 Trump pressuring Tehran despite Upgrades to US conventional Trump may be overestimating Iranian nuclear deal compliance weaponry in Asia could prompt China’s capability -- let alone Russia could split European governments China to upgrade its nuclear forces willingness -- to force nuclear 0 from Washington. to preserve retaliatory capability. policy changes in Pyongyang. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources: Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook, Oxford Analytica 3 Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation oxan.com The humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and nuclear testing After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan of a leadership role in disarmament and nuclear found itself an independent nuclear-armed state with non-proliferation. the world’s fourth-largest arsenal of 1,410 nuclear warheads. In addition to logistical challenges of It has continued to take an active part in UN-based managing and securing such a vast arsenal, it also initiatives and has been a regional leader promoting inherited a large nuclear testing complex. This the Central Asian Nuclear-Free Zone established in included the world’s largest site at Semipalatinsk, 2009. This has become the first multilateral security which had already exposed around 1.5 million of agreement to include all five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan’s population to high levels of radiation. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan continues to campaign for On becoming independent, Kazakhstan rapidly relin- the establishment of similar zones in other parts of quished all of the nuclear weapons and dismantled the world, especially in the Middle East. the test sites in close and consistent cooperation with the international community. In 1992, it signed The country has also participated in the Humanitarian the Lisbon Protocol of the Non-Proliferation of Impacts (HI) of nuclear weapons initiative launched Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) and declared itself in 2012 by the Norwegian government. This aims a non-nuclear weapon state upon joining the NPT. to increase awareness of the risks associated with nuclear weapons possession. President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s decision to shut down the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site after HI has convened meetings in Oslo (March 2013), years of radioactive fallout and debris signified a Nayarit (February 2014) and Vienna (December milestone in Kazakh public policy towards a respon- 2014) and this has resulted in a Humanitarian Pledge, sible use of nuclear resources and the assumption signed by 159 countries, including Kazakhstan. Removal of nuclear warheads After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, former the latter in particular required substantially more Soviet states reached an agreement whereby Soviet diplomatic negotiations. A series of bilateral negoti- military and nuclear forces would remain wherever ations produced an agreement which transferred they were located. At the time, it was not immedi- responsibility for the safety and maintenance of ately clear whether or not Kazakhstan, along with these nuclear warheads to Russia. Ukraine and Belarus, would relinquish former Soviet nuclear arsenals. In April 1995, the last of Kazakhstan’s warheads were transported to Russia, two months ahead of However, in 1994, Kazakhstan’s leadership decided schedule: 16 missile regiments had been decom- to voluntarily relinquish control of the nuclear armed missioned and disbanded and their ICBMs and forces stationed on Kazakh territory in favour of warheads, together with more than 18,000 metric greater security and stability. Similar agreements tons of missile fuel components, had been trans- were reached with Ukraine and Belarus, although ported to military sites in Russia. 4 Kazakhstan’s example in promoting nuclear non-proliferation oxan.com