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2019 Electric Supply and Demand Report

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2019 Electric Supply and Demand Report ELECTRIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANNUAL REPORT 2019 We serve the people of Kansas... Introduction K.S.A. 2017 Supp. 66-1282 became effective July 1, 2011, and requires the Kansas Corporation Commission (KCC or Commission) to compile a report regarding electric supply and demand for all electric utilities in Kansas. The statute requires this report to include, but not be limited to: (1) Generation capacity needs and (2) system peak capacity needs and (3) renewable generation needs associated with the 2009 Kansas renewable energy standards. To ensure that the KCC Staff has the information it needs to compile these reports, the KCC issued an Order on October 29, 2012, requiring Westar Energy, Kansas City Power & Light Company, Empire District Electric Company, Kansas Power Pool, Kansas Municipal Energy Agency, Kansas Electric Power Cooperative Inc., Midwest Energy, Sunflower Electric Power Corporation, Mid- Kansas Electric Company, and Kansas City Board of Public Utilities to file annually, the data required to compile this report with the Commission under Docket 13-GIME-256-CPL. Effective January 1, 2016, the Renewable Energy Standard Act was amended and the requirement to own or purchase renewable generation became a voluntary initiative. While most of the affected utilities continue to invest in renewable generation, it is no longer a requirement under state law. - 1 - Section 1: Generation Capacity Needs and System Peak Capacity Planning All major utilities1 in Kansas are members of the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which operates as the Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) throughout the State, as well as in the states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and parts of Iowa, Missouri, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, and New Mexico. SPP additionally serves as the Regional Entity of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), and is mandated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to ensure reliable operation of the electric grid within the region, including ensuring adequate power supplies and reserves are maintained by its members. In furtherance of the FERC mandate, SPP publishes a series of regulations—called the SPP Criteria—governing the system operations of its members. SPP additionally requires its members to annually submit 10 year capacity and load projections to show how the utility will meet its ongoing system peak capacity responsibility (System Peak Responsibility), including the 12% reserve margin requirement outlined in the Criteria.2 System Peak Responsibility may be satisfied by capacity from owned generation units, capacity purchased through long term wholesale power contracts (often called Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)), full or partial requirements contracts, and short-term capacity contracts.3 Table 1 (page three) shows the current and 20 year forecasted capacity and System Peak Responsibility (system peak load plus SPP’s 12% required reserve margin) for utilities operating in Kansas. This includes smaller municipal and cooperatives utilities that purchase electricity wholesale from larger state utilities through full requirements contracts, wherein these municipal and cooperative utilities’ peak loads are incorporated into the larger utility’s system requirements. Finally, two of the State’s investor-owned utilities, Kansas City Power & Light (KCP&L) and Empire District Electric Company (Empire), are multi-jurisdictional; therefore, the data shown in this report represents only their Kansas loads (peak demand) and their system capacity has been scaled to represent the capacity allocated to serving their Kansas load. 1 Specifically, all utilities listed in this report are members of SPP. 2 SPP Tariff Attachment AA defines Planning Reserve Margin to be twelve percent (12%) and that each utility maintain capacity required to meet its load and planning reserve obligations. 3 Note Table 1.1 and the tables listed in Appendix A are intended to represent a utility’s long-term position, and thus do not include short-term capacity contracts. Short-term capacity contracts are defined as a capacity contract greater than three months but less than a year in duration. - 2 - Table 1—Overview of Current and Projected Total System Capacity and System Capacity Responsibility for Utilities Operating in Kansas Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) Cooperatives Municipal Utilities Empire Kansas Kansas City Kansas District Kansas City Electric Sunflower Board of Municipal Kansas Electric Power & Westar Power Midwest Electric Power Public Energy Power Company Light Energy Coop. Energy Corporation Utilities Agency Pool (Empire) (KCP&L) (Westar) (KEPCo) (Midwest) (Sunflower) (KC-BPU) (KMEA) (KPP) Total System Capacity (MW) 70 1,985 6,239 494 413 1,259 720 425 311 System Peak Responsibility (MW) 58 1,932 5,835 483 358 1,113 548 454 246 2016 Historical System Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 12 53 404 11 50 156 172 (29) 65 Total System Capacity (MW) 70 1,908 6,244 461 427 1,149 768 489 284 System Peak Responsibility (MW) 65 1,840 5,855 455 406 1,071 564 472 248 2021 Projected System Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 5 68 389 6 21 78 204 17 36 Total System Capacity (MW) 66 2,049 6,452 471 467 1,129 768 478 250 System Peak Responsibility (MW) 66 1,768 6,025 464 432 1,055 570 491 255 2026 Projected System Capacity Surplus (Deficit) 0 281 427 7 35 74 198 13 (5) Total System Capacity (MW) 61 2,049 6,072 477 467 1,024 768 478 234 System Peak Responsibility (MW) 68 1,715 6,201 475 454 1,043 575 510 262 2031 Projected System Capacity Surplus (Deficit) (7) 334 (129) 2 13 (19) 193 (32) (28) Total System Capacity (MW) 59 1,948 --- 484 -- 981 768 478 234 System Peak Responsibility (MW) 69 1,763 --- 485 -- 1,032 575 530 268 2036 Projected System Capacity Surplus (Deficit) (10) 185 --- (1) -- (51) 193 (52) 34 - 3 - Section 2: Renewable Energy Planning In May 2009, the Kansas Legislature passed Senate Substitute bill for H. 2369, in part creating the Renewable Energy Standard Act (RESA) which requires all non-municipal utilities in Kansas to satisfy a portion of the utility’s generation needs through renewable generation sources. In particular, the RESA—incorporated into statute as K.S.A. 66-1256 through 66-1262—required all utilities subject to its requirements to own or purchase renewable generation such that the nameplate capacity1 of these generators was equal to 10% of the utility’s average prior three-year annual peak retail sales for the years 2011 through 2015, 15% for the years 2016 through 2019, and 20% for all years after 2020. Table 2 (page five) shows each RESA affected utility’s forecasted renewable capacity and the percentage of the utility’s capacity that is due renewable generation. 1The KCC, through K.A.R. 82-16-1(e), has interpreted renewable generation capacity as being nameplate capacity. - 4 - Table 2—Overview of Voluntary Renewable Capacity for Utilities Operating in Kansas Kansas Sunflower Kansas City Kansas Electric Electric Board of Municipal Empire District Kansas City Westar Power Midwest Power Public Elnergy Kansas Electric Company Power & Light Energy Coop. Energy Corporation Utilities Agency Power Pool (Empire) (KCP&L) (Westar) (KEPCo) (Midwest) (Sunflower) (KC-BPU) (KMEA) (KPP) System Renewable Capacity (MW) 13 730 868 22 117 250 64 61 38 Total System Peak (MW) 52 1700 5184 425 337 980 480 399 216 Historical 2016 Renewable Capacity (% of Peak Capacity) 25% 43% 17% 5% 35% 26% 13% 15% 18% System Renewable Capacity (MW) 13 930 1,865 23 106 197 259 2 38 Total System Peak (MW) 57 1,665 5382 400 357 942 496 415 218 Projected 0.005% 2021 Renewable Capacity (% of Peak Capacity) 23% 56% 35% 6% 30% 21% 52% 17% System Renewable Capacity (MW) 6 930 1,865 23 106 197 259 2 38 Total System Peak (MW) 59 1705 5,519 409 380 928 576 432 225 Projected 2026 Renewable Capacity (% of Peak Capacity) 10% 55% 34% 6% 28% 21% 45% 0.005% 17% System Renewable Capacity (MW) -- 930 1,713 23 57 124 259 2 25 Total System Peak (MW) 60 1,761 5,665 418 399 918 506 449 230 Projected 2031 Renewable Capacity (% of Peak Capacity) -- 53% 30% 6% 14% 14% 51% 0.004% 11% System Renewable Capacity (MW) -- 348 1,146 23 -- -- 259 2 -- Projected Total System Peak (MW) 61 1,892 -- 427 -- 908 506 466 236 2036 Renewable Capacity (% of Peak Capacity) -- 18% -- 5% -- -- 51% 0.004% -- - 5 - Appendix A: Utility System Capacities and Peak Responsibilities Appendix A-1—Empire District Electric Company (Empire) The Empire District Electric Company (Empire) is a regulated investor-owned utility operating in the states of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Only a very small portion of Empire’s overall service territory falls within Kansas, consisting of approximately 9,928 retail customers in Cherokee county (located in the extreme southeastern corner of the state). System Peak1 System Capacity2 12% System Capacity Total System System Peak Accredited Total System Capacity Net Contracts Surplus (Deficit) Peak Load Responsibility Generation Capacity Margin 2013 58 8 66 66 3 69 2 2014 59 8 66 66 3 68 2 2015 58 8 65 61 4 65 0 2016 52 7 58 66 4 70 12 Historical 2017 52 7 58 66 4 70 12 2018 61 8 68 66 4 70 2 2019 59 8 66 66 4 70 4 2020 59 8 67 66 4 70 3 2021 57 8 65 66 4 70 5 2022 58 8 65 66 4 70 5 2023 58 8 65 66 4 70 5 2024 58 8 66 62 4 66 0 2025 58 8 66 62 4 66 0 2026 59 8 66 62 3 66 0 2027 59 8 66 58 3 62 4 2028 59 8 67 58 3 62 5 Projected 2029 59 8 67 58 2 61 6 2030 59 8 67 58 2 61 6 2031 60 8 67 58 2 61 6 2032 60 8 68 58 2 61 6 2033 60 8 68 58 2 61 7 2034 60 8 68 58 2 59 7 2035 61 8 68 57 2 59 9 2036 61 8 69 57 2 59 10 1 Empire’s system peak is scaled in this table to reflect the Kansas portion of Empire’s service territory (demand created by customers).
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