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EAEU Development Prospects up to 2025. Working Paper. Special Issue / 2017 / [E.S SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIALSPECIAL ISSUE ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE E SPECIAL ISSUE ISSU SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUEISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIALISSUE ISSUESPECIAL E SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSU ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE E SPECIAL ISSU SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUESPECIAL ISSUE SPECIALISSUE ISSUESPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL E SPECIAL ISSUEISSU SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUEISSUE SPECIAL SPECIALRUSSIAN ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE INTERNATIONALSPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE AFFAIRS COUNCIL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE E SPECIAL ISSU SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUISSUE E SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE WORKING PAPER SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL EAEU DEVELOPMENTISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL PROSPECTS UP TO 2025 SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (RIAC) ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE 1, B. Yakimanka street, 119180, Moscow, Russia ISSUE SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE Tel.: +7 (495) 225 6283 E Fax: +7 (495) 225 6284 ISSU SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE E–mail: [email protected] SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIALSPECIAL ISSUE www.russiancouncil.ru SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIALISSUE ISSUESPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE E SPECIAL ISSU SPECIAL SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL E SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSU SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE SPECIAL ISSUE RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL MOSCOW 2017 Russian International Affairs Council Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: I.S. Ivanov, RAS Corresponding Member, Dr. of History Authors: E.S. Alekseenkova, Ph.D. in Political Science; I.S. Glotova, Ph.D. in Economics; A.V. Devyatkov, Ph.D. in History; V.A. Morozov; A.Y. Osinina; E.V. Pak; A.N. Starostin, Ph.D. in History; S.M. Yun, Ph.D. in History Copy Editors: I.N. Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science; T.A. Makhmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science; E.S. Alekseenkova, Ph.D. in Political Science; V.A. Morozov EAEU Development Prospects up to 2025. Working Paper. Special Issue / 2017 / [E.S. Alekseenkova, I.S. Glotova, A.V. Devyatkov, et al]; [I.S. Ivanov, Editor-in-Chief]; Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). – Moscow: NPMP RIAC, 2017. – 96 pages – Authors and editors are listed on the reverse of the title page. ISBN 978-5-9500378-9-4 This working paper has been prepared by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) as part of the project entitles “Eurasian Economic Integration: Effective Models of Experts’ Interaction.” The aim of this publication is to present the views of experts on the development of the EAEU up until 2025. The paper considers promising areas of integration: transport and logistics; agro-industrial policy; the free movement of goods, labour and education in the EAEU space; and the prospects for the EAEU’s international ties up to 2025. This, of course, is not an exhaustive list of possible areas for integration. It is, however, feasible given the national priorities and expectations of the EAEU member states, an analysis of which has been included as a separate section of this working paper. An understanding of these priorities and expectations is essential to the elaboration of promising areas of integration. The articles included in this paper have been written by young experts who took part in the joint RIAC– Eurasian Economic Commission schools in 2015–2016 entitled “Eurasian Economic Integration: Priorities, Prospects and Tools” and “The EAEU: Integration for All. Effects and Prospects until 2025.” The views and opinions expressed by the authors herein do not necessarily state of reflect those of the Russian International Affairs Council. The full text of this working paper is available on the RIAC website. You can download it or leave a comment via this direct link – russiancouncil.ru/en/paper-eaeu2025 © Drafting, translation and design. NPMP RIAC, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 4 The EAEU by 2025: Priorities and Expectations of the Member States (E. Alekseenkova) 6 Transport and Infrastructure in the EAEU up to 2025 (E. Pak) 40 Development of Integration in Agriculture in the EAEU up to 2025 (Osinina A., Glotova I.) 46 Development of the EAEU Single Market for Goods: Prospects and Stumbling Blocks (Morozov V.) 57 Freedom of Movement of Labour Resources in the EAEU up to 2025 (Starostin A.) 63 Prospects for Education Integration in the EAEU up to 2025 (Yun S.) 76 The EAEU’s International Ties up to 2025 (Devyatkov A.) 82 About the Authors 91 EAEU DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS UP TO 2025 Introduction The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a young, dynamically developing integration project that was first proposed back in 1994 by the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev during an event at Lomonosov Mos- cow State University. A long period of preparation ensued. These prepa- rations included the formation of the Eurasian Customs Union (EACU) and the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) and concluded with the signing of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union on May 29, 2014 in Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan) by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The Union was joined in 2015 by the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Armenia. On January 1, 2015, the process of forming a common market on the basis of four freedoms –the free movement of goods, services, labour resources and capital – was set in motion. The EAEU member states entered 2015 with different levels of economic development, different economic structures and different priorities for their national development – priorities that were geared towards the spe- cifics of the labour markets and the socio-political structures of the respec- tive countries. However, the common goal of the EAEU member states was to ensure the development of the national economies and increase their competitiveness through the creation of an integration association, namely, an economic union. Today, it is widely believed across the EAEU that integration gives their economies additional possibilities that would not have been available outside of the integration project. All the member states have drawn up a list of priorities and interests that they seek to implement through the use of the mechanisms and instruments of inte- gration. At the same time, there is no getting around the fact that there have been certain difficulties in the implementation of the integration project. Part of these difficulties can be put down to the specifics of the internal develop- ment of the member states, the disparities in their economic interests, and the desire to protect their respective domestic markets and produc- tion bases. This is a natural process that occurs within any integration association – the European Union and European integration processes are a prime example. Another part of the problem is related to the specifics of economic turbulence in the global economy, the high level of volatility of the financial and energy markets and the complex foreign policy situation, which is particularly painful for developing economies in the context of increasing interdependence. The formation of the EAEU came precisely during such a period of global instability and the growth of crisis phenom- ena in global and regional politics in 2015–2016. This notwithstanding, the EAEU member states have set themselves a number of ambitious goals in terms of economic integration. The EAEU’s 4 Working Paper. Special Issue INTRODUCTION plans up until 2025 include: eliminating the remaining barriers to the movement of goods, services, capital and labour; creating a common energy market; developing coordinated industrial and agricultural poli- cies; developing a common digital space; coordinating foreign economic relations across the EAEU; and creating a common transport and logistics infrastructure. In this working paper, we present expert views on the following promis- ing areas of integration: transport and logistics; agro-industrial policy; the free movement of goods, labour and education in the EAEU space; and the EAEU’s international relations. This, of course, is not an exhaustive list of possible areas for integration. It is, however, feasible given the national priorities and expectations of the EAEU member states, an analysis of which has been included as a separate section of this working paper. An understanding of these priorities and expectations is essential to the elaboration of promising areas of integration. The articles included in this paper have been written
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