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تحقيقات منابع آب ايران Volume 13, No سال سيزدهم، شماره 8، تابستان 0260 تحقيقات منابع آب ايران Volume 13, No. 2, Summer 2017 (IR-WRR) Iran-Water Resources Research 199-236 يادداشت فنی Technical Note استخراج منحنیهای عمق- مساحت- تداوم بهمنظور Derivation of Depth- Area- Duration Curves for Estimating Areal Probable Maximum برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل منطقهای در استان فارس Precipitation in Fars Province 2 *8 0 زهرا جهانديده ، بهرام بختياری و کوروش قادری Z. Jahandideh 2, B. Bakhtiari2* and K. Qaderi3 چکيده Abstract حداکثر بارش محتمل بزرگترين عمق بارش در يک تداوم معين و ممکن Probable Maximum Precipitation is the greatest depth of است. در اين مطالعه، استخراج منحنيهای عمق- مساحت- تداوم )precipitation for certain duration. This study aimed derivation )DAD of Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) curves in Fars province for PMP24 جهت برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل 24 ساعته ) ( با استفاده از دو (estimating 24-h Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP24 نگرش آماری هرشفيلد و برآورد عامل فراواني )km( مناسب در استان فارس using two Hershfield statistical approaches and estimating the suitable frequency factor (km). For these purposes the مدنظر ميباشد. بهاينمنظور از دادههای حداکثر باران 24ساعته )P24)max)( maximum 24-hour precipitation data ((P24)max) with a period با دوره آماری 12 تا 61 سالهی 52 ايستگاه واجد آمار طوﻻنيمدت واقع در of 12-61 years were obtained for 52 stations with long-term اين استان استفاده گرديد. مقادير km در نگرش اول و دوم بهترتيب، در data. The km values in the first and second approaches were estimated between 15.3 to 18.4 and 1.6 to 6.8, respectively. محدوده 4/18- 0/15 و 8/6- 6/1 و PMP24 متناظر در محدوده -853 Also the corresponding PMP24 were between 280 to 850 and 283 و 083- 112 ميليمتر برآورد شدند. مقادير PMP24 با دوره to 380 mm respectively for the two approaches. The 112 بازگشتهای 53 و 133 سال بهترتيب 714 و 771 ميليمتر محاسبه گرديد. PMP24 values were estimated of 50 and 100 year return periods 714 and 771 mm, respectively. Results showed that نتايج نشاندهنده کاهش 75 درصدی km نگرش دوم نسبت به نگرش اول the km values for the second approach are 75% lower than the (P24)max PMP24 در منطقه مطالعاتي ميباشد. نسبت به در نگرش اول و km for the first approach. The ratios of PMP24 to (P24)max were دوم بهترتيب 4/7-6/2 و 7/2-4/1 بهدست آمد. لذا اطمينانپذيری نگرش obtained in the range of 2.6 to 7.4 and 1.4 to 2.7 respectively for the first and second approaches. Therefore, the second دوم نسبت به نگرش اول بيشتر ميباشد. همچنين نقشههای هممقدار approach is more reliable. Also, the isohyet maps were drawn PMP24 در منطقه مطالعاتي برای دو نگرش با استفاده از مدل رقومي for PMP for the two approaches over the study area using ارتفاع در محيط نرمافزاری ArcGIS 10.3 ترسيم و منحنيهای DAD و DEM in GIS. DAD and area reduction curves were determined for each approach. Using these curves it is کاهش سطح هريک از نگرشها تعيين شدند. کاربرد اين منحنيها تبديل possible to convert point PMP24 values to areal values in the PMP24 نقطهای به منطقهای را در استان فارس امکانپذير ميسازد. .Fars province کلمات کليدی: حداکثر بارش محتمل )PMP(، روش آماری، منحني ,(Keywords: Probable maximum precipitation (PMP Hershfield method, Area reduction curve, Frequency factor, کاهش سطح، عامل فراواني، استان فارس. .Fars province تاريخ دريافت مقاله: Received: May 21, 2016 95/0/1 تاريخ پذيرش مقاله: Accepted: July 14, 2016 95/4/24 1- دانشجوی کارشناسي ارشد مهندسي منابع آب؛ دانشکده کشاورزی؛ دانشگاه شهيد باهنر M. Sc. student in Water Resource Engineering, Water Engineering 1- کرمان؛ کرمان؛ ايران ,Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman 2- استاديار بخش مهندسي آب؛ دانشکده کشاورزی؛ دانشگاه شهيد باهنر کرمان؛ کرمان؛ .Kerman, Iran 2- Assist Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, ايران :Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran, Email 0- دانشيار بخش مهندسي آب؛ دانشکده کشاورزی؛ دانشگاه شهيد باهنر کرمان؛ کرمان؛ [email protected] ايران ,Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture 3- *- نويسنده مسئول .Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran بحث و مناظره (Discussion) در مورد اين مقاله تا پايان پاييز 1096 امکانپذير است. Corresponding Author -* 199 PMP 0- مقدمه با توجه به اينکه در مطالعات گذشته برآورد بصورت نقطهای انجام شده و اثر گراديان بارش و منحنيهای کاهش سطح در آن بارش در بين عناصر اقليمي از اهميت بسيار زيادی برخوردار است لحاظ نشده است. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسي توزيع مکاني بارش، )Ros et al., 2008( به گونهای که يکي از مسائل مهم در طراحي ترسيم منحنيهای DAD، استخراج منحنيهای کاهش سطح و سازههای آبي برآورد حداکثر بارش محتملPMP( 1( است. PMP به برآورد منطقهای حداکثر بارش محتمل در ايستگاههای باران-سنجي عنوان داده ورودی اوليه برای محاسبات سيﻻب طراحي که و سينوپتيک منطقه مطالعاتي تعريف شده است. اساس طراحي سازههای آبي است، دارای اهميت ميباشد )PMP .)Ros et al., 2008 برابر بيشترين ارتفاع بارشي است که امکان رخداد آن از نظر فيزيکي در يک محدوده جغرافيايي و در يک 8- مواد و روشها زمان معين از سال وجود داشته باشد )WMO, 2009(. بهمنظور 8-0- منطقه مطالعاتی و دادهها برآورد منطقهای PMP و کسب آگاهي از تغييرات مکاني بارش، استان فارس با مساحت 122638 کيلومتر مربع بين طولهای 2 روابط عمق- سطح- تداوم )DAD( بررسي ميشوند. منظور از جغرافيايي ´06˚53 تا ´05˚55 شرقي و عرضهای جغرافيايي بررسي DAD ترتيب دادن اطﻻعاتي است که به سهولت بتوان به ´30˚27 تا ´43˚01 شمالي واقع شده است. استان فارس بر اساس حداکثر مقدار بارش در بخشي يا تمامي حوضه آبخيز در مدت طبقهبندی اقليمي دومارتن گسترشيافته به پنج ناحيه اقليمي خشک زمانهای مختلف بارش رگبار دست يافت. با استفاده از منحنيهای معتدل، نيمهخشک معتدل، خشک سردسير، نيمهخشک سردسير و عمق- مساحت- تداوم و تجزيه بارندگي به ازای سطوح مختلف خشک گرمسير طبقهبندی ميشود. در اين مطالعه از دادههای 52 حوضه، مقدار بيشينه بارندگي در پايههای زماني متفاوت تعيين ايستگاه سينوپتيک و بارانسنجي اخذ شده از اداره کل هواشناسي ميگردد. بر اساس منحنيها يا روابط DAD ميتوان ميانگين بيشينه استان فارس و شرکت آب منطقهای استان فارس استفاده شد. در بارندگي را برای هر سطحي از حوضه که فاقد ايستگاه باشد به دست جدول 1 مشخصات جغرافيايي و در شکل 1 محدوده منطقه مطالعاتي آورد )Ghafourian and Telvari, 2010(. تاکنون برای مناطقي از و محل ايستگاههای منتخب آورده شده است. ايران و ساير نقاط دنيا محاسبات حداکثر بارش محتمل 24 ساعته k صورت گرفته است. مقادير m برای تعدادی از نمونههای اقليمي 8-8- روشها ايران تصحيح گرديد و تأثير طول دوره آماری بر فاکتور فراواني هرشفيلد بر مبنای وجود سری ساﻻنه دادههای بارش با تداوم مورد بررسي شد )Bakhtiari, 1999(. از جمله ديگر مطالعات ميتوان به نظر در نقاط مشاهدهای روشي را جهت برآورد PMP ارائه کرد برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل بــه روش آماری در استان فارس )Hershfield, 1961; Hershfield, 1965(. اساس آن معادله Parsamehr et al. , 2014; Mansouri and Boostani, 2010; ( عمومي تناوبِ ارائه شده توسط (Chow (1951 ميباشد و بهصورت Mazidi and Omidi, 2011(، استخراج منحنيهای DAD به معادله 1 تعريف ميشود. منـــظور محاسبه PMP در حــوضهای در کشــــور هلنـــد 푥푡 = 푥̅푛 + 푘푡휎푛 )1( )Kingpaiboon and Netwang( و حــوضه آجيچای که در آن 푥푡 حداکثر بارش ساﻻنه با دوره بازگشت 푡 سال، 푥̅푛 )Azizi and Hanafi, 2011(، اشاره کرد. (Desa et al. (2001 و متوسط بارش ساﻻنه، 휎푛 انحراف معيار برای بارشهای ساﻻنه و 푘푡 (Desa and Rakhecha (2007 روش هرشفيلد را بر اساس حداکثر عامل فراواني متناظر با دوره بازگشت سال است. بارش مشاهده شده مورد تجديد نظر قرار دادند که اين کار منجر به کاهش شديدی در ضريب فراواني گرديد و در مطالعه حاضر از اين هرشفيلد به اين نتيجه رسيد که در برآورد 푃푀푃 از يک عامل روش تحت عنوان نگرش دوم ياد ميشود. (Ghahraman (2008 فراواني نبايد تخطي کرد، بنابراين 푘푡 را با 푘푚 جايگزين کرد و به نــگرش تجــديـــد نظر يافتــــه هرشفيلد را برای حوضه اترک و دنبال آن 푥푡 نيز با 푃푀푃 تعويض ميشود، لذا معادله فوق به صورت (Afzali Gorouh et al. (2015 برای حوضه قرهسو در استان معادله )2( بازنويسي ميشود. گلستان و (Paymozd et al. (2005 آن را برای حوضههايي در 푃푀푃 = 푥̅ + 푘푚휎푛 )2( شرق استان هرمزگان بهکار بردهاند و نگرش دوم را پيشنهاد کردند. تحقيقات منابع آب ايران، سال سيزدهم، شماره 8، تابستان 0260 Volume 13, No. 2, Summer 2017 (IR-WRR) 233 Table 1- Geographical characteristics of selected stations for PMP calculation in Fars province جدول 0- مشخصات ايستگاههای منتخب جهت محاسبه PMP در استان فارس Altitude Length of Latitude Longitude Station type Station from sea record (N) (E) level (m) (year) Shiraz 29˚32′ 52˚36′ 1484 61 Fasa 28˚58′ 53˚41′ 1288 50 Abadeh 31˚11′ 52˚40′ 2030 40 Zarghan 29˚47′ 52˚43′ 1596 34 Dorudzan 30˚11′ 52˚17′ 1650 29 Lar 27˚42′ 54˚17′ 792 27 Synoptic Eghlid 30˚54′ 52˚38′ 2300 23 Darab 28˚47′ 54˚17′ 1098 22 Lamerd 27˚22′ 53˚12′ 405 22 Neyriz 29˚12′ 54˚20′ 1632 17 Bavanat 30˚28′ 53˚40′ 2231 14 Takhte Jamshid 29˚56′ 52˚54′ 1605 14 Jahrom 28˚29′ 53˚32′ 1082 12 Abadeh tashk 29˚48′ 53˚43′ 1604 42 Ahmadabad 30˚23′ 52˚41′ 2233 48 Arsenjan 29˚55′ 53˚19′ 1648 42 Estahban 29˚07′ 54˚04′ 1755 28 Emamzade 30˚19′ 52˚35′ 1842 29 Poltalkh 29˚27′ 53˚25′ 1592 26 Jamalbeig 30˚36′ 51˚57′ 2010 46 Jahanabad 29˚42′ 53˚51′ 1577 44 Chamriz 30˚47′ 52˚10′ 1840 45 Chubkhale 30˚32′ 51˚53′ 2056 42 Hosseinabad 29˚57′ 52˚21′ 1695 41 Kharame 29˚29′ 53˚19′ 1597 23 Khosroshirin 30˚54′ 52˚00′ 2340 27 Khelar 29˚57′ 52˚14′ 2078 22 Dorudzan 30˚21′ 52˚44′ 1662 31 Dezhkord 30˚43′ 51˚57′ 2107 22 Dashtbal 30˚00′ 52˚58′ 1673 45 Dashtak 30˚17′ 52˚28′ 2031 30 Doshmanziari 30˚04′ 52˚22′ 1615 22 Raingauge Dehbid 30˚39′ 53˚11′ 2312 42 Dehkade sefid 30˚42′ 52˚04′ 2181 39 Dubane 29˚25′ 52˚46′ 1490 41 Sade 30˚43′ 52˚09′ 2192 25 Sarvestan 29˚16′ 53˚13′ 1570 36 Sahlabad 29˚15′ 53˚53′ 1518 27 Shul 29˚44′ 52˚48′ 1620 22 Edare markazi 29˚37′ 52˚32′ 1522 47 Fenjan 30˚23′ 53˚29′ 2376 21 Ghatre aghaj 30˚43′ 51˚53′ 2306 43 Ghalat 29˚50′ 52˚20′ 1881 41 Kaftar 30˚31′ 52˚43′ 2350 34 Katuri 29˚59′ 53˚21′ 2003 42 Komehr 30˚27′ 51˚52′ 2377 18 Garde Estahban 29˚09′ 53˚52′ 1698 21 Goshnegan Maharlu 29˚30′ 52˚52′ 1450 24 Madarsoleiman 30˚19′ 53˚18′ 1868 26 Mehrabad 29˚58′ 52˚42′ 1616 42 Neyriz 29˚11′ 54˚20′ 1657 36 Haragan 29˚06′ 54˚28′ 1898 47 تحقيقات منابع آب ايران، سال سيزدهم، شماره 8، تابستان 0260 Volume 13, No.
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