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Ten Years of Accelerating Arctic Shipping – What Will It Take To

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Ten Years of Accelerating Arctic Shipping – What Will It Take To Felix H. Tschudi Tschudi Shipping Company Ten Years of Accelerating Arctic Shipping – What Will it Take to Continue? The 9th international Arctic Shipping Seminar Institute of Arctic Logistics, Youngsan university December 10, 2020 The Tschudi Group is a shipping, logistics and ocean industry solutions provider with particular focus on east-west cargo flows involving the Baltic, Russia and the CIS countries as well as logistics and infrastructure in the Arctic 2 www.tschudishipping.com The Tschudi Group in the Arctic Boreal Group – operating vessels serving oil-spill prevention and the fish- farming industry in Northern Norway. Tschudi Northern Logistics – Kirkenes Industrial Logistics Area (KILA) Cross-border transport Port and real estate development Sydvaranger Iron Ore Mine and Tschudi Arctic Transit Tschudi Aggregates Tschudi Bulk Terminal Oil/LNG STS operations The Kola Peninsula and Northern Norway form an all-year ice free wedge into the Arctic – a natural logistics platform for the region Nothing new! Captain Wiggins, Jonas Lied and the Kara Sea Route 1874 – 1918 In September 2010 Tschudi Shipping Company arranged the shipment of iron ore concentrate via the NSR from the Sydvaranger iron ore mine in Kirkenes to Lianyungang, China For the first time a non-Russian vessel carries a non-Russian cargo between two non- Russian ports proving to the world that the NSR is an international trade route open to all Turns a Freight Disadvantage into an Advantage 2010 - 4 passages 111 000 mt 2011 - 34 passages 821 000 mt 2012 - 46 passages 1 260 000 mt 2013 - 71 passages 1 350 000 mt 2014 - 22 passages 274 000 mt 2015 - 19 passages 40 000 mt 2016 - 19 passages 215 000 mt 2017 - 27 passages 194 500 mt 2018 - 27 passages 491 000 mt 2019 - 37 passages 697 000 mt 2020 - 62 passages 1 280 000 mt Via the Suez Canal Through the Northern Sea Route Destination Distance (Nm.) Speed (knots) Days Distance (Nm.) Speed (knots) Days Shanghai, China* 12,050 14.0 37.0 6,500 12.9* 21.0* Busan, Korea 12,400 14.0 38.0 6,050 12.9 19.5 Yokohama, Japan 12,730 14.0 39.0 5,750 12.9 19.5 *Based on actual voyage performed by M/V Nordic Barents from Kirkenes to Lianyungang, China in September 2010 In the medium term – destinational shipping serving Arctic projects with purpose-built vessels is dominating. Suitable transshipment infrastructure and North – South connections are pre-requisites. Transport of oil, gas, minerals and equipment by: NP • Shuttle multipurpose carriers • Shuttle tankers • Shuttle LNG carriers • Shuttle bulkers • Purpose built offshore vessels • Seasonal liner services First mover: Mid-2000 Norilsk Nickel employed 5 ice breaking 14 500 dwt multi-purpose container vessels serving the port of Dudinka MURMANSK EUROPE DUDINKA Norilsk Moscow SOUTH-EAST ASIA 9 Thereafter - transshipment of Russian Oil and LNG Today: Ship to Ship In the future: Landbased and/or floating terminals? Followed by - the world’s largest LNG STS operation serving Yamal LNG inside the North Cape Transborder Yamal LNG Honningsvåg STS Transhipment Solutions www.tschudigroup.com Yamal LNG – until now the most important boost to NSR Also for general cargo and other supplies: Kirkenes supplied the rock to Sabetta Concrete LNG tank construction www.tschudigroup.com 13 Number of voyages 2016-2020 3 000 2 694 2 607 2 500 Development of 2 022 1 908 the total use of 2 000 1 705 The NSR over the 1 500 past 10 years 1 000 500 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Cargo Volume 2010-2020 35 000 31 530 31 000 30 000 25 000 20 180 20 000 15 000 10 535 10 000 7 479 5 392 5 000 3 111 3 876 3 930 3 982 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NOVATEK - Arctic LNG 2 – Kola Yard - First LNG 2023 at Gydan 2018 2020 After Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG 2 then Arctic LNG 1 and 3? Formidable growth in NSR transport volumes forecasted based on known projects COSCO has introduced a seasonal semi-line for breakbulk and container employing three 36 000 dwt ice class 1A multi-purpose vessels and China is already the biggest user of the NSR for transits after Russia. Cross-border Arctic transshipment hubs would secure the required cargo base To Northwest Europe To East Coast of America Kirkenes-Murmansk Sabetta To West Coast Tiksi of America Nome Provideniya Anchorage Anadyr Dutch Harbor Adak Island Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky To Northeast Asia Large port development plans are underway in Murmansk Construction work is ongoing PORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AS CATALYST: Kirkenes Industrial Logistics Area – KILA POTENTIAL USE: Marine Transportation and logistics including offshore base activities. NSR and Arctic Transhipment Hub Bulk handling facilities Industrial Processing 23 TSCHUDI KIRKENES CAPESIZE PORT PROJECT LONG TERM – THE SIBERIAN RIVERS WILL BE MAJOR SOURCES OF CARGO FOR THE NSR BUT EAST – WEST AND NORTH – SOUTH CONNECTIONS ARE REQUIRED Hyundae Heavy Industries, Loading Heavy Cargo at Ulsan, Transshipped at Kirkenes for Tobolsk, Siberia Transshipped at the Tschudi terminal in Kirkenes. Transported to Tobolsk. (Early July 2016, Kirkenes, Norway) EAST – WEST COMBINED WITH NORTH – SOUTH CONNECTIONS «The Polar Silk Road» THE ARCTIC CORRIDOR - an Arctic railway vision: Connecting Europe and the Far East through the Northern Sea Route, Norway and Finland The Arctic -Where Gas meets Ore By combining available natural gas, electricity or locally generated hydrogen with regional mineral and metal resources new opportunities for low emission processing will be possible regionally. The Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) value chain: "Case Finnmark" Kovdor Snøhvit/Goliat Snøhvit/Goliat Natual gas Other ore Natural gas piped sources LNG/CNG gas/CNG DR- pellets Direct Raw ore Concentration Pellets plant Reduced Iron (DRI) Kirkenes Hammerfest DRI plant, Hadeed, Al Jubail Blastfurnace Electrical Arc Sponge Iron/ Furnace Scrap HBI Sponge Iron Blastfurnace, Tata Steel, Ijmuiden EAF, Celsa, Mo i Rana Teknologi for et bedre samfunn 29 “Swedish manufacturer aims to produce first fossil-free steel by 2026 using hydrogen gas alternatives to blast furnaces. Sweden’s LKAB plans $47bn push into carbon-free iron ore” FT November 2020 Today: Future: Vision Energy Fe The Future: Low emission higher value semi- processed products Raw materials LOGISTICS IS KEY! Fish Kirkenes, 4th October 2012 31 SUMMING UP: NSR voyages 2020 Transits 62 (by Nov 1) From NSR 62 From western to West Russian and 844 Transit Voyages European ports to NSR 860 1 280K Transit Cargo Between NSR ports 650 2019 Transit voyages From Eastern Russia and Asian ports to NSR ports 70 Number of voyages Transits 62 Between NSR ports 650 From Eastern Russia & Asian ports 70 From Western Russia & European ports 860 From NSR to West 844 From NSR to East 78 Total 2564.
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