Introduction

Notes

Introduction

1. Other American visitors included Margarita Assenova (Institute for New Democracies), Robert Berls (Nuclear Threat Initiative – NTI), Janusz Bugajski (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Ariel Cohen (Heritage Foun- dation), Vladimir Socor (Jamestown Foundation), Page Stoutland (NTI), and Stephen Woehrel (Congressional Research Service). 2. On June 2010, Russia voted for UN Security Council Resolution No. 1929, which adopted sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program. This followed a long period of Russia’s declining cooperation with the United States on Iran. 3. Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, “Causes and Consequences of Belarus’s Post-Election Violence”, 21 December 2010, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id= 42168, date accessed 28 January 2011. 4. Matthew Rojansky and Ambassador James F. Collins, “A Post-Election Agenda for Belarus,” 12 January 2011, Carnegie Endowment for Interna- tional Peace, http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42282, date accessed 28 January 2011. 5. Balazs Jarabik, Jana Kobzova and Andrew Wilson, The EU and Belarus After the Elections, London: European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2011, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/Belarus%20memo%20Jan%202011.pdf, date accessed 15 February 2014. 6. Vladimir Sokor, “Glavnoye – Pomeshat’ Rossii Proniknut’ v Belarus,” Delﬁ, 16 January 2011, http://ru.delﬁ.lt/archive/article.php?id=40887083, date accessed 28 January 2011. 7. Testimony of David J. Kramer, Executive Director of Freedom House before the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April 2011, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/kra040111.pdf, date accessed 20 April 2011. 8. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement before the United States House Commit- tee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April 2011, Serial No. 112–156, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/65497.pdf, date accessed 20 April 2011. 9. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement. 10. M. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement. 11. Rodger Potocki, “Enemies of Themselves,” Transitions Online, 6 December 2010, http://www.tol.org/client/article/22008-enemies-of-themselves.html, date accessed 15 February 2014.

270 Notes 271

12. Association Human Rights in Belarus, 2011 Strategy report on the situation in Belarus with recommendations for action by the European Union and its members September 2011, http://www.human-rights-belarus.org/en/ articles/Strategyper cent20Paper-2011.html, date accessed 15 February 2014. 13. Arina Vetrova, “Ot Vika nado priatat spichki,” Belarus Segodnya, 29 October 2011, http://www.sb.by/print/post/122749/, date accessed 15 February 2014. 14. David Kramer, “Do’s and Don’t’s on Belarus,” 1 November 2011, Free- dom House, http://blog.freedomhouse.org/weblog/2011/11/dos-and-donts -on-belarus.html, date accessed 2 February 2014. 15. Yelena Daneiko, “Trudnaya missiya OBSE,” Novaya Europa, 18 January 2010, http://n-europe.eu/article/2010/01/18/trudnaya_missiya_obse, date accessed 19 February 2014. 16. “Kramer: V blizhaishee vremya zhdite novykh shagov SSHA otnositelno Belarusi,” Belorusskie Novosti, 6 November 2007, http://naviny.by/rubrics/ politic/2007/11/06/ic_articles_112_153785/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 17. Personal interview with Sergei Martynov, 26 July 2011. Date accessed 19 February 2014. 18. Yury Drakakhrust, “Kavalechek pernika,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 5 September 2008, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/1196637.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 19. Andrew Wilson, “Belarus After its Post-Georgia Elections,” European Coun- cil on Foreign Relations, 26 October 2008, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/ commentary_wilson_on_belarus/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 20. “20 Years of Belarus’s Independence: Current Challenges and Future Development”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2011; audio recording available at http://www .carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/26/20-years-of-belarus-s-independence -current-challenges-and-future-development/60zt, date accessed 19 February 2014. 21. This statement ought to be put into the context of the financial crisis experienced by Belarus since May 2011 and discussed in Chapter 1. 22. “20 Years.” 23. See endnote 21. 24. “20 Years.” 25. Ibid. 26. Ibid. 27. Mark Almond, “Less Bizarre than it Seems: The Landslide in Belarus Reflects its Demonized Leader’s Refusal to Back Market Fundamentalism,” The Guardian, 21 March 2006. 28. Ibid. 29. Ibid. 30. Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield 2008, p. 187. 31. IISEPS’ National survey 20 December 2010–2 January 2011, http://www .iiseps.org/. 32. Sam Greene, “Priroda Nepodvizhnosti Rossiiskogo Obschestva,” Pro et Contra, 15, 1–2, January–April 2011, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?lang= ru&fa=43949, date accessed 19 February 2014. 33. Ibid. 272 Notes

34. Valery Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka: Politichesky Portret, Moscow: Partizan 2010, p. 83. 35. Ibid., p. 85. 36. Ibid., p. 90. 37. Ibid., p. 221. 38. Ibid. 39. Ibid., p. 289. 40. Ibid., p. 360. 41. Testimony of David J. Kramer, Executive Director of Freedom House before the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April, 2011, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/kra040111.pdf, date accessed 20 May 2011. 42. Andrew Wilson, Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship, London: Yale Univer- sity Press 2011. 43. Ibid., p. 253. 44. Ibid., pp. 75 and 115. 45. Ibid., p. 171. 46. Ibid., p. 257. 47. Ibid., p. 259. 48. Ibid. 49. Brian Bennett, The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus under Lukashenko, New York: Columbia University Press 2011. 50. Ibid., p. 3. 51. Ibid., p. 2. 52. Ibid., p. 4. 53. Ibid., p. 271. 54. Ibid., p. 277. 55. Anais Marin, Sociological Study of the Composition of the Belarusian Soci- ety, Brussels: European Union 2012, p. 15, http://democraticbelarus.eu/ﬁles/ Sociological%20Study%20on%20Belarusian%20Society.pdf, date accessed 1 February 2012. 56. See, for example, Time, 178, 23, 12 December 2011, p. 44. 57. Allen Lynch, Vladimir Putin and Russian Statecraft, Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books 2011. 58. Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon and Shuster 1996, p. 310. 59. Perhaps the most unabashed and straight-arrow account of this view can be found in Michael McFaul, Advancing Democracy Abroad, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littleﬁeld 2010. 60. Niall Ferguson, “Washington Proves the Communists Right,” Newsweek, 15 August 2011, p. 12. 61. Jeffrey Sachs, The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Pros- perity, New York: Random House 2011; reviewed in The Economist, 12–18 November 2011, p. 99. 62. Peter J. Boyer, “Congress is Getting Rich Off Wall Street and Peter Schweitzer Won’t Stop until Everyone Knows It,” Newsweek, 21 November 2011, pp. 32–36. Notes 273

63. James Kirchik, “Belarus, the Land of No Applause,” World Affairs Jour- nal, 11 November 2011, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/belarus -land-no-applause, date accessed 19 February 2014. 64. Andrew Wilson, “Lukashenka’s Game Is Up,” Current History, October 2011, pp. 277–282.

1 Belarusian Economy

1. Grigory Ioffe, “Understanding Belarus: Economy and Political Landscape,” Europe-Asia Studies, 2004, 56, 1, pp. 85–118; Grigory Ioffe, Understand- ing Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littleﬁeld 2008. 2. Alexander Sinkevich, “Sumerki epokhi. Vyzov integratsii,” Belorusskie Novosti, 15 July 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/2012/07/15/ic _articles_410_178470/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 3. Brett Forrest, “The Skype Killers of Belarus,” Businessweek, 23 August 2012, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-08-23/the-skype-killers -of-belarus, date accessed 19 February 2014. 4. Ibid. 5. Ibid. 6. Alexander Martynau, “An IT Solution to Belarusian Economic Malaise,” Belarus Digest, 12 December 2013, belarusdigest.com/story/it-solution -belarusian-economic-malaise-16366. 7. This section was ﬁrst published in Grigory Ioffe and Viachaslau Yarashevich, “Debating Belarus: An Economy in Comparative Perspective,” Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2011, 52, 6, pp. 750–779. 8. Gennadiy Kosarev, “Pochemu Belorusy ne khotyat obyedinatysya s Rossiyey,” Solidarnost, 20 August 2011, http://www.gazetaby.com/index .php?sn_nid=38732&sn_cat=35, date accessed 21 August 2012. 9. Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, p. 114. 10. Vitali Silitski, “Motherland Is Not for Sale? Belarusians’ Attitudes toward Geopolitical Alternatives: Suspicion and Mercenary Motives,” BISS BLITZ, #04/2010, 27 October 2010, http://www.belinstitute.eu/images/doc-pdf/ bb042010en.pdf, date accessed 1 November 2010. 11. Yuriy Drakakhrust, “Belarus, Rossiya, Ukraina: Estafeta avtoritarizma,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 22 August 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/ content/transcript/24304775.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 12. Roy Medvedev, “Ekonomika sodruzhestva: Na raznykh skorostyakh i po raznym dorogam,” Ekonomicheskiye Strategii, 2005, 8, pp. 14–18, http:// www.inesnet.ru/magazine/mag_archive/free/2005_08/medvedev.htm, date accessed 19 February 2014. 13. Medvedev, “Ekonomika sodruzhestva.” 14. EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), “Structural and Institutional Change Indicators,” 2011, http://www.ebrd.com/pages/ research/economics/data/macro, date accessed 1 February 2012. 15. “Na vore investor gorit,” Belorusskaya Gazeta, 25 July 2011, http://www .belgazeta.by/20110725.29/020047061/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 274 Notes

16. CIS STAT (Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Indepen- dent States), “Baza dannykh ‘Statistika’ SNG,” 2011, http://www.cisstat. com/1base/frame01.htm; World Bank, “GDP Growth (annual %),” 2011, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, date accessed 1 February 2012. 17. “Economic growth has been rather broad-based. In contrast to some other CIS countries, the patterns of growth in Belarus have been much more ben- eﬁcial for labor.” World Bank, Belarus: Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth. Country Economic Memorandum for the Republic of Belarus. Report No. 32346-BY, Washington, D.C.: World Bank 2005. 18. UNDP (United Nations Development Program), Human Development Report 2010: The Real Wealth of Nations, Pathways to Human Development, New York, NY: UNDP 2010. 19. Lyudmila Istomina, “Poverty Reduction in Belarus: Experience and Lessons,” UNDP Development and Transition Website, 2007, http://www .developmentandtransition.net/Article.35+M5ce458a4e 92.0.html, date accessed 2 March 2010. 20. “The World’s Billionaires, 2011,” Forbes, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/ wealth/billionaires/ list?country=195&page=1, date accessed 1 March 2012. 21. Ivan Paliy, “Mirovoy Bank prognoziruyet rost bednosti v Rossii,” Novyye Khroniki, 9 June 2011, http://novchronic.ru/6583.htm, date accessed 1 March 2012. 22. “Ukrainians Uninterrupted Descent into Poverty,” Democracy Watch,6, 2011, http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/democracy-watch-2011 -issue-6-4349035.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 23. UNDP (United Nations Development Program), Human Development Report 2010. 24. UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund), “TransMonEE Database,” 2011, http://www.transmonee.org, date accessed 2 April 2012. 25. “Detskiye shkoly iskusstv g. Minska,” Department of Education of Minsk City Council, 12 September 2011, http://mins.gov.by/ru/org/8583/attach/ b586f24/, date accessed 1 February 2012. 26. WHO (World Health Organization), World Health Statistics 2011, www.who .int/whosis/whostat/2011/en/index.html, date accessed 1 February 2012. 27. Grigory Ioffe, “Belarus and Chernobyl: Separating Seeds from Chaff,” Post- Soviet Affairs, 2007, 23, 4, pp. 353–356. 28. Human Development Report 2012, https://data.undp.org/dataset/HDI -Indicators-by-Country-2012/nz26-sffk?, date accessed 2 February 2013. 29. “The 2013 Legatum Prosperity Index,” http://www.prosperity.com/#!/ ranking, date accessed 19 February 2014. 30. The inclusion of this indicator is motivated by population decline in all three East Slavic countries and by the fact that it is viewed as a major problem in Russia. 31. “Belarus, Rossiya, Ukraina, i Kazakhstan: Ekonomicheskiy rost s 1990 goda”, September 2009, http://ﬂime.ru/articles/5, date accessed 20 March 2011. 32. Grigory Ioffe, Tatyana Nefedova and Ilya Zaslavsky, “From Spatial Continuity to Fragmentation: The Case of Russian Farming,” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2004, 94, 4, pp. 913–943. Notes 275

33. “Zhizn na sele dolzhna byt ne meneye komfortna, chem v krupnykh goro- dakh i stolitse, Belta, 6 December 2010, http://www.belta.by/ru/all_news/ president/Zhizn-na-sele-dolzhna-byt-ne-menee-komfortnachem-v-krupnyx -gorodax-i-stolitse—Lukashenko_i_534302.html, date accessed 15 January 2011. 34. Olga Belyavskaya, “Gospodderzhka sel’skogo khozyaystva dolzhna sokhran- itsya – Myasnikovich,” Belta, 15 July 2011, http://www.belta.by/ru/all_news/ economics/Gospodderzhka-selskogo-xozjajstva-v-Belarusi-dolzhnasoxranit sja—Mjasnikovich_i_564030.html, date accessed 1 August 2011. 35. Roman Kunitsky, “Kto s’yel myaso?” Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, 19 August 2011, http://www.neg.by/publication/2011_08_19_15027.html, date accessed 12 September 2011. 36. Vladimir Miloserdov, “Prodovol’stvennaya bezopasnost,” 2011 http:// vladimir.miloserdov.name/articles/page-51.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 37. Yuriy Panchenko, “Ukraintsev podkarmlivayut iz-za rubezha,” Kommersant, 13 August 2009, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache :Xk8BpCcAoSUJ:www.kommersant.ua/doc.html, date accessed 1 February 2011. 38. “Prodovol’stvennyy export: Tsena orientira,” Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, 31 January 2011, http://bdg.by/news/politics/13695.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 39. Olga Gritsai, Grigory Ioffe and Andrei Treivish, Tsentr i Periferiya v Regionalnykh Issledovaniyakh, Moscow: Nauka 1991; Grigory Ioffe, Natyana Nefedova and Ilya Zaslavsky, The End of Peasantry? The Disintegration of Rural Russia, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press 2006. 40. Although this spatial trend is interrupted by urban agglomerations, such as those of Moscow, Minsk, Kiev, and so on, they do not alter the trend at a lower level of spatial resolution. 41. For the literature review on the impact of open spaces on Russia’s development, see Ioffe, Nefedova and Zaslavsky, The End of Peasantry? The Disintegration of Rural Russia, pp. 45–50. 42. Grigory Ioffe, “Different Perspectives on Changes in Rural Areas,” Soviet Geography, 1991, 32, pp. 327–336. 43. Tatyana Nefedova and Alexander Nikulin, “Selskaya Rossiya: Prostranstvennoe Szhatie i Sotsialnaya Polarizatsiya,” Demoscope, pp. 437–438, October 2010, http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2010/0437/analit02.php, date accessed 19 February 2014. 44. This section was ﬁrst published in Ioffe and Yarashevich, “Debating Belarus”, pp. 750–779. 45. World Bank, Belarus. 46. Mezhdunarodnyy Valyutnyy Fond, Respublika Belarus, Otdelnyye Voprosy, Doklad MVF po strane No. 5/217, 2005, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/ 2005/rus/cr05217r.pdf, date accessed 19 February 2014. 47. Sergey Nikolyuk, “Nayelis demokratii, nayedimsya avtoritarizma,” Nashe Mneniye, 17 May 2011, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/3146.html, date accessed 15 March 2012. 48. IMF Country Report No. 11/69, March 2011, http://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1169.pdf, date accessed 19 February 2014. 276 Notes

49. Ibid. 50. “Osnovnyye pokazateli vneshney torgovli 1995–2010,” Minsk: National Statistical Committee of Belarus, 2011. 51. “Lukashenko: Net prichin panikovat,” Belta, 29 August 2011, http://www .belta.by/ru/all_news/president/Lukashenko-net-prichin-panikovat-i-krichat -ogrjaduschej-katastrofe-v-ekonomike_i_569806.html, date accessed 1 March 2012. 52. Mr. Alymov, acting chairman of the Belarus National Bank, said when I inter- viewed him on 26 July 2011 that the March 2011 publication – in Russian and English – by the IMF of the addenda to the IMF report on Belarus (despite the BNB request to refrain from that publication) also contributed to panic because the material published revealed that the hard currency reserve of the BNB had declined to $3.4 billion, whereas the current account deficit amounted to $8 billion. 53. For example, I saw retail prices for lean uncooked ham grow from 50,000 R to 82,000 R per kilo between late June and late July 2011. At the same time, since price hikes in Belarusian rubles have not been nearly as significant as its devaluation with respect to foreign currencies, food and restaurants actually have become more affordable for all those with a steady inflow of hard currency, a contingent encompassing first and foremost members of the Belarusian opposition, who enjoy substantial Western aid. For example, in July 2011, one could eat a full meal (soup, salad, fried chicken, and juice) of decent quality in a Minsk cafeteria for a total price equivalent to $3.20. 54. “Pravitelstvo nashlo vinovnykh: Belorusskoye myaso skupayut Rossiyane,” Ale.BY, 25 August 2011, http://ale.by/news/pravitelstvo-nashlo-vinovnih -belorusskoe-myaso-skupayut-rossiyane, date accessed 26 August 2011. 55. IMF Country Report No. 11/277, September 2011, http://www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11277.pdf, date accessed 19 February 2014. 56. Ihar Karney, “Defolt yak vynik ‘Belaruskaha Tsudu,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 24 August 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/ 24306670.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 57. Surowiecki, James, “The Dodger’s Manna,” New Yorker, 11 July, 2011, http:// www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/07/11/110711ta_talk_surowiecki, date accessed 1 September 2012. 58. IMF. Country Report No. 06/178, May 2006, http://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06178.pdf, date accessed 19 February 2014. 59. World Bank, Belarus Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability. Washington, D.C.: World Bank 2009, Report No. 48239-B, http:// siteresources.worldbank.org/BELARUSEXTN/Resources/PEFA_Belarus_april _2009_english.pdf, date accessed 16 February 2011. 60. Aleksandr Klaskovskiy, “Kreml: Piton dal skidku kroliku,” Belorusskiye Novosti, 25 November 2011, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2011/11/25/ic _articles_112_175962/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 61. “Prezident Lukashenko postavil zadachu pravitel’stvu do dontsa goda vernut valyutnuyu vyruchku v stranu, Belta, 30 August 2011, http://www.belta.by/ ru/all_news/president/Lukashenkopostavil-zadachu-pravitelstvu-do-kontsa -goda-prinjat-kardinalnye-mery-po-vozvratu-valjutnojvyruchki-v-stranu_i _570016.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. Notes 277

62. “Twenty Years of Belarus’s Independence: Current Challenges and Future Development.” Brieﬁng, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2011, the webcast available at http:// d2tjk9wifu2pr3.cloudfront.net/2011-10-26-Belarus.mp3, date accessed 19 February 2014. 63. Vladimir Shimov (Ed.), Natsionalnaya Ekonomika Belarusi, Minsk: BGEU 2005, p. 465. 64. Ibid., p. 466. 65. Ibid., p. 456. 66. Viachaslau Yarashevich, Political Economy of Modern Belarus in the Context of Post-Socialist Transformation Discourse, PhD Thesis, University of Kingston, Kingston-upon-Thames, UK 2006. 67. Joseph Brada, “A Critique of the Evolutionary Approach to the Economic Transition From Communism to Capitalism,” Kazimierz Poznanski (Ed.), The Evolutionary Transition to Capitalism, Boulder: Westview Press 1995, pp. 201, 203. 68. Alice Amsden et al., The Market Meets Its Match: Restructuring the Economics of Eastern Europe, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press 1994, p. 3. 69. Ibid. 70. Valery Dashkevich, “Belorusskaya ekonomichskaya model: razlichiye i pov- toreniye,” Nashe Mneniye, 27 July 2005, http://nmnby.eu/news/discussions/ 2280.html, date accessed 16 February 2014. 71. Leonid Zayiko, “Vybor prezidenta: Kliuch situatsii v ekonomicheskoi pobede nad nomenklaturoi,” Nashe Mneniye, 11 November 2005, http://nmnby.eu/ pages/6.html, date accessed 15 February 2014. 72. Special Report: State Capitalism, The Economist, 21 January 2012, http:// www.economist.com/node/21542931, p. 3, date accessed 19 February 2014. 73. Special Report. 74. IMF Country Report No. 10/16. Washington, D.C.: IMF, January 2010, http:// www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr1016.pdf, p. 17, date accessed 19 February 2014. 75. Such experts include but are not limited to Mikhail Delyagin, Alexander Dugin, Sergei Kara-Murza, Sergey Mikheev, Alexander Prokhanov, and Konstantin Zatulin. 76. Andrey Suzdal’tsev, “Belorusskoye Lobby,” PolitOboz, 26 October 2010, http://www.politoboz.com/content/belorusskoe-lobbi, date accessed 19 Febru- ary 2014. 77. “Soglasheniye mezhdu Respublikoy Belarus i Rossiyskoy Federatsiyey o Sozdanii Ravnykh Usloviy Khozyaystvovaniya, SoyuzInfo, 1998, http://www .soyuzinfo.ru/ru/juridical_library/index.php?id4=12&usage4=2, date accessed 1 February 2010. 78. Fedor lukyanov, “O chyom gjvjrit Lukashenka?” Russia in Global Affairs, 22 October 2013, http://www.globalaffairs.ru/redcol/O-chem-govorit -Lukashenko-16151, date accessed 19 February 2014. 79. Kirill Koktysh, “Vilnuisskii summit i natsionalnye orientiry Belarusi,” Nashe Mnenie, 8 November 2013, nmnby.eu/news/analytics/5328.html?, date accessed 29 February 2014. 80. Grigory Ioffe, three 2013 essays on Eurasia Daily Monitor: “A Russian- Belarusian Friendship Thriller,” “The Potash War: A Sequel,” and “The 278 Notes

Potash War and the Receding Breed of the Red Man.” Accessible at http:// www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablantt newsstaff relation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=663, date accessed 16 February 2014. 81. Natsionalnyi Statistichesky Komitet, Vneshnyaya Torgovlya 2013, http:// belstat.gov.by/homep/ru/indicators/doclad/2013_10/9.pdf, date accessed 16 February 2014. 82. Olga Loiko, “Semashko o vyvodakh iz neudachnogo goda,” 31 October 2013, http://news.tut.by/economics/372970.html, date accessed 16 February 2014. 83. Alexander Zayats, “Nashi liudi v otpusk letayut,” 1 November 2013, http:// news.tut.by/economics/372806.html, date accessed 16 February 2014. 84. Sergei Nikolyuk, Tsifry: Sovet Ministrov planiruyet obrushit reiting Lukashenko, Belorusskie Novosti, 31 October 2013, http://naviny.by/rubrics/ opinion/2013/10/31/ic_articles_410_183503/, date accessed 16 February 2014. 85. “RF predostavit Belarusi v 2014 godu dopolnitelno do 2 milliardov dollarov,” Tut.by 25 December 2013, http://news.tut.by/economics/380255.html, date accessed 16 February 2014.

2 Belarusian Society

1. Yevgeny Babushkin, “Andrei Konchalovsky: Moite Vymya pered Doikoi,” An interview, Snob, 9 October 2012, http://www.snob.ru/selected/entry/ 53571#comment_529427, date accessed 20 February 2014. 2. Anton Taras, “Brussels-Minsk: v Ozhidanii Razriadki,” Beloruskie Novosti, 11 April 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2012/04/11/ic_articles_112 _177483/, date accessed 20 February 2014. 3. IISEPS: March 2012 National Survey, http://www.iiseps.org/press15.html, date accessed 12 July 2012. 4. Alexei Turovsky, “Dekabrskii Opros NISEPI: razvenchanie mifov,” Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, 30 January 2012, http://bdg.by/analytics/594 .html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 5. Alexei Makarkin, “Novyi srok Putina,” Online talk, 12 May 2012, http:// msps.su/i_class/10130, date accessed 20 February 2014. 6. Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilization and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon and Shuster 1996, p. 159. 7. Eﬁm Fishtein, “Vybory v Gruzii i Belorussii: chto obshchego i v chiom razlichiya?” Russian Service of Radio Liberty, 5 October 2012, http:// www.svobodanews.ru/content/transcript/24734628.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 8. Anatoly Lysyuk, Sotsio-Kulturnaya Determinatsiya Politicheskogo Liderstva: Soderzhaniye, Sposoby, Evolutsiya, Chernovtsy: Bukrek 2008. 9. Prasky Accent, “Talk Show”, Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty,26 December 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/24433989.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 10. Quoted in Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littleﬁeld 2008, p. 153. 11. Konstantin Skuratovich, Interview with Vladimir Neklyaev, 5 September 2011, Za Praudu, http://zapraudu.info/vladimir-neklyaev-i-konstantin -skurat/?lang=en, date accessed 20 September 2011. Notes 279

12. Balazs Jarabik, Belarus: Are the Scales Tipping? Madrid: FRIDE, A European Think Tank for Global Action, 3 March 2009, http://www.fride.org/ publication/576/belarus-are-the-scales-tipping, date accessed 8 March 2010. 13. Balazs Jarabik, Belarus beyond Sanctions, Policy Brief No. 72, April 2011, Madrid: FRIDE, p. 2. 14. Balazs Jarabik, Jana Kobzova and Andrew Wilson, The EU and Belarus After the Election, Policy Memo, Brussels: European Council on Foreign Relations 2011, p. 5, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/Belarus%20memo%20Jan% 202011.pdf, date accessed 20 February 2014. 15. Balazs Jarabik, “Belarus After Sanctions: The Lost Dictator,” Belarus Digest, 13 April 2011, http://belarusdigest.com/2011/04/13/belarus-after -sanctions-the-lost-dictator, date accessed 20 February 2014. 16. Sam Greene, “Priroda nepodvizhnosti Rossiyskogo obschestva (The Nature of Russian Society’s Immobility), Pro et Contra, 15, 1–2, 2011, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?lang=ru&fa=43949, date accessed 20 February 2014. 17. Ilya Venyavkin, “Dvadtsat let spoustya,” Bolshoi Gorod #, 22, 288, 14 December 2011, http://www.bg.ru/opinion/9840/, http://www.bg.ru/ opinion/9840/. 18. Ibid. 19. Tomasz Zarycki, “Uses of Russia: The Role of Russia in the Modern Polish National Identity,” East European Politics and Societies, 2004, 18, 4, pp. 595–627. 20. Piotr Eberhardt, “The Concept of Boundary Between Latin and Byzantine Civilization in Europe,” Przegla˛d Geograficzny, 2004, 76, 2, pp. 169–188. 21. Huntington, The Clash of Civilization and the Remaking of World Order. 22. Alexander Murphy, Terry Jordan-Bychkov and Bella Bychkova Jordan, The European Culture Area, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 2009, p. 143. 23. Oleg Latyszonek, “Belarusian Nationalism and the Clash of Civilizations,” International Journal of Sociology, 2001, 31, 3, pp. 62–77. 24. Alexander Lukashenka, Stenogramma Vystupleniya pered Studencheskoi Molodiozh’yu Brestchiny, 23 September 2004, http://www.president.gov.by, date accessed 1 November 2004. 25. Edward Said, “The Clash of Ignorance,” The Nation, 22 October 2001, http://www.thenation.com/article/clash-ignorance?page=0,2#, date accessed 20 February 2014. 26. Mark Bassin, “Civilisations and Their Discontents: Political Geography and Geopolitics in the Huntington Thesis,” Geopolitics, July 2007, 12, 3, pp. 351–374. 27. Gerard Ó Tuathail, Critical Geopolitics: The Politics of Writing Global Space, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press (Volume 6 in the Borderlines series) and London: Routledge 1996. 28. The Hofstede center, National Cultural Dimensions, http://geert-hofstede .com/national-culture.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 29. Andrew Wilson, Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship, London: Yale University Press 2011, p. 171. 30. Wilson, Belarus, p. 257. 31. Perhaps the most straight-arrow justification of just such interference is offered by Michael McFaul in his 2010 book Advancing Democracy Abroad, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield. 280 Notes

32. Robert D. Kaplan, “Was Democracy Just a Moment?” The Atlantic Online, 1997, http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/97dec/democ/htm, date accessed 20 February 2014. 33. Babushkin, “Andrei Konchalovsky”. 34. Lucan Way, “Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Com- petitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine,” World Politics, January 2005, 57, p. 235. 35. Way, “Authoritarian State Building,” p. 238. 36. Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way, Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War, Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 2010, p. 24. 37. Ibid., pp. 25–26. 38. Ibid., p. 41. 39. Thomas De Waal, “How Gogol Explains the Post-Soviet World?” Foreign Pol- icy, March–April 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/27/ how_gogol_explains_the_post_soviet_world_and_chekhov_and _dostoyevsky?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full, date accessed 20 February 2014. 40. “Lukashenko protsitiroval Dostoyevskogo o nevynosimosti svobody,” Belorusskie Novosti, 8 May 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2012/05/ 08/ic_news_112_392718/, date accessed 20 February 2014. 41. In the original, this reads “Nasha Svoboda – bardak, a nash ideal – poryadok v bardake.” The joking effect is amplified by the slang word “bardak” whose initial meaning is a brothel and the acquired figurative meaning is a mess. 42. Viacheslav Nikonov, “Gordoye soznaniye mogushchestva,” Izvestia, 26 July 2007, http://www.izvestia.ru/comment/article3106530/?print, date accessed 27 July 2007. 43. Tatyana Vorozheikina, “Samozashchita Kak Pervyi Shag k Solidarnosti,” Polit.Ru, 18 August 2008, http://www.polit.ru/research/2008/08/18/ vorogejkina.html, date accessed 31 January 2011. 44. Yuliya Vishnevetskaya, “Belorussiya sama po sebe,” Russkii Reportior, 25, 153, 2 July 2010, http://expert.ru/printissues/russian_reporter/2010/25/ belorussiya?esr=15, date accessed 15 July 2010. 45. Grigory Ioffe, “Budushcheye Belorussii: optimisticheskii vzglyad,” Pro et Contra, March–April 2007, pp. 94–95. 46. Belorussia – ne Rossiya? Raznitsa natsionalnykh kharakterov na fone politicheskikh sobytii, Russian Service of Radio Liberty, 16 January 2011, www.svobodanews.ru/content/transcript/2278301.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 47. Alexander Klaskovsky, “Peshchernoi russofobii v Belarusi ne obnaruzheno,” Belorusskie Novosti, 7 October 2010, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2010/ 10/07/ic_articles_112_170745/, date accessed 20 February 2014. 48. Denis Melyantsov and Yelena Artiomenko, “Slishkom pragmaticheskaya natsiya?” BISS, 2 April 2013, http://belinstitute.eu/sites/biss.newmediahost .info/files/attached-files/BISS_SA07_2013ru.pdf, date accessed 20 February 2014. 49. Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, pp. 40–42. 50. Nina Mechkovskaya, “Pochemu v post-sovetskoi Belarusi vsyo menshe govoriat na belorusskom yazyke?” Neprikosnovennyi Zapas, 2011, Notes 281

6, 80, http://magazines.russ.ru/nz/2011/6/m16.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 51. See for example, Valery Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenko: Politicheskii Portret, Moscow: Partizan 2010, p. 12. 52. Zapadnaya Rus, http://zapadrus.su/index.php?start=20. 53. Boris Lepeshko, “Tsarsko-sovetsko-russkii krest,” Zapadnaya Rus,13June 2012, http://zapadrus.su/rusmir/istf/674-2012-06-12-20-59-42.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 54. Vadim Gigin is apparently referring to the third statute of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania adopted in 1588. That and earlier statutes were the codiﬁcations of the Grand Duchy’s legislation. 55. Vadim Gigin, “Byla li Belarus koloniyei?” Belta, 4 January 2012, http://www.belta.by/ru/blogs?auth_ID=16&art_ID=119, date accessed 20 February 2014. 56. Valerka Bulgakau, “Vybary prezydenta kreolau,” Arche 4, 2001, Arche.home .by/2001-4/bulha401.htm, date accessed 15 July 2004. 57. Uladzimer Abushenka, “Mickiewicz kak ‘kreol’: Ot ‘tuteishikh gene- ologii’ kgeneologii Tuteshastsi,” 2002, at, http://www.lib.by/frahmenty/ semabuszenka.htm, date accessed 22 September 2007. 58. Andrew Wilson, Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship, New Haven: Yale University Press 2011, p. 258. 59. Ryszard Radzik, Kim Sa Bialorusini? Torun: Adam Marszalek 2004, p. 84. 60. Nina Mechkovskaya, “Pochemu v post-sovetskoi Belarusi vsyo menshe gov- oryat na belorusskom yazyke?” Russkii Zhurnal 2011, http://magazines.russ .ru/nz/2011/6/m16.html. 61. Nina Mechkovskaya, “Pochemu.” 62. Ibid. 63. Andrei Firsov and Yury Pivovarov, “Russkaya sistema i reform,” Pro et Contra, 1999, 4, pp. 176–199. 64. Sergei Nikolyuk, Spros na politicheskuyu alternative, Nashe Mneniye, 12 September 2012, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/4940.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 65. Alexander Feduta, Lukashenko: Politicheskaya Biograﬁya, Moscow: Referen- dum 2005, p. 338. 66. Alexei Pikulik, “19 dekabrya 2010: Ploshchad zavisimosti,” Belorusskie Novosti, 22 December 2011, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/2011/12/22/ ic_articles_410_176253/, date accessed 20 February 2014. 67. Petr Hlavacek, “Politicheskie partii i obshchestvo v sovremennoi Belarusi,” Polis, 2010, 2. 68. David Rotman (Ed.), Tsennostnoi Mir Sovremennogo Cheloveka: Belarus v Proyekte “Issledovaniye Yevropeiskikh Tsennostei,” Minsk: BGU 2009, p. 35. 69. Rotman (Ed.), Tsennostnoi Mir, p. 126. 70. Ibid., p. 130. 71. Ibid. 72. Ibid., p. 151. 73. Victor V. Kiriyenko, Belorusskaya Mentalnost: Istoki, Sovremennost, Perspektivy, Gomel: GGTU 2009. 74. Kiriyenko, Belorusskaya Mentalnost, p. 175. 75. Ibid., p. 179. 282 Notes

76. Alexander Akhiezer, Rossiya: Kritika Istoricheskogo Opyta, Novosibirsk: Sibirsky Chronograph 1991. 77. IISEPS quarterly surveys, http://iiseps.org/old/. 78. Oleg Divov, “Ya by posovetoval belorusam nemedlenno obyavit voinu Rossii,” Salidarnast, 4 April 2011, http://inoforum.ru/inostrannaya_pressa/ oleg_divov_ya_by_sovetoval_belorusam_nemedlenno_ob_yavit_vojnu _rossii1/, date accessed 20 February 2014. 79. James Kirchik, “Belarus, the Land of No Applause,” World Affairs Jour- nal, 14 November 2011, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/belarus -land-no-applause, date accessed 20 February 2014. 80. Timothy Snyder, “In the Darkest Belarus,” The New York Review of Books, 29 September 2010, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/ 2010/oct/28/darkest-belarus/?pagination=false, date accessed 20 February 2014. 81. Yulia Chernyavskaya, Belorusy: Ot Tuteishikh k Natsii, Minsk: FUAinform 2010, p. 340. 82. Andrew Wilson, Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship, London: Yale University Press 2011, p. 204. 83. Chernyavskaya, Belorusy. 84. Ibid., pp. 342–343. 85. Ergali Gher, “Belorusskoye zerkalo,” Znamya, 2007, 1, 7, magazines.russ.ru/ znamia/2007/1/ger8-pr.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 86. Gher, “Belorusskoye zerkalo,” p. 1. 87. Ibid., p. 7. 88. Ibid. 89. Ibid. 90. Ibid., p. 8. 91. Ibid., p. 9. 92. Ibid., p. 15. 93. Ibid., p. 30. 94. “Dorenko: Having joined in the early 90’s the blasphemous, disgusting culture of democracy, which turned out to be the victory of the strong who mocked the people Belarusians do not want to come back to this culture,” Video Novosti, 27 November 2011, http://www.ctv.by/node/59374, date accessed 20 February 2014. 95. “Dorenko.” 96. Ibid. 97. This section consists of excerpts from Stephen White, “Debating Belarus: A Framing Comment,” Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2011, 52, 6, pp. 799–808, reprinted with permission. 98. IISEPS is the polling ﬁrm best known to every Western Belarus watcher. IISEPS conducts quarterly representative national surveys and publishes their results on its website. These enable multiple comparisons across social groups and the analyses of dynamics of various crucial indicators, such as trust vested in president and various institutions, geopolitical orienta- tions of Belarusians, and many others. IISEPS was subjected to harassment by the Belarusian KGB in December 2004. On 27 December 2004, the US ambassador visited IISEPS as a sign of support for beleaguered Belarusian nongovernmental organizations. On 15 April 2005, the Supreme Court Notes 283

of Belarus ruled to close down the institute. It is currently active as a nonprofit organization registered in neighboring Lithuania. Oleg Manaev, IISEPS’ founder and head, has been repeatedly warned by the General Prosecutor’s Office that the continuation of polling in Belarus by an insti- tution not registered in Belarus is a criminal offence. Manaev’s response so far has been that the polling is conducted by a group of private citi- zens. In 2010, an attempt was made to fire Manaev from Belarusian State University, for which he used to work as a full professor. More than one hundred scholars from across the world, including myself, petitioned the Rector of the university on behalf of Manaev, who retained his job as a result. 99. During subsequent years, public trust in Lukashenka declined with less than 38 per cent trusting him in December 2013, according to the IISEPS national survey, but trust vested in the opposition parties remained very low. 100. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenko. 101. Sergei Nikolyuk, “Faktor strakha,” Nashe Mneniye, 25 January 2011, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/3022.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 102. Grigory Ioffe, “The Electoral Rating of Alyaksandr Lukashenka Is up Again,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 October 2013, www.refworld.org/docid/ 525bb5be4.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 103. Turovski, “Dekabrskii opros NISEPI”. 104. Sergei Nikolyuk, “Nedoverchivoe molchanie bolshinstva,” Nashe Mnenie, 13 April 2012, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/4798.html, date accessed 20 February 2014. 105. David R. Marples, “Elections and Nation-Building in Belarus: A Comment on Ioffe,” Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2007, 48, 1, p. 65. 106. Robert D. Kaplan, “Was Democracy Just a Moment?” The Atlantic Online, 1997, http//www.theatlantic.com/issues/97dec/democ/htm, date accessed 20 February 2014.

3 Belarus and the West: From Estrangement to Honeymoon and Back to Estrangement

1. “Rice: Belarus is Dictatorship,” CNN, 20 April 2005, http://edition.cnn.com/ 2005/WORLD/europe/04/20/rice.belarus/. 2. Alexander Lukashenka’s press conference for Belarusian and Russian jour- nalists in Zhlobin, Belarus, 29 December 2006, http://www.president.gov.by/ press35846.print.html, date accessed 15 February 2007. 3. Maxim Sokolov, “Sviatochnyi rasskaz” (A Christmas Tale), Izvestia, 12 December 2007, http://www.izvestia.ru/sokolov/article3100087/, date accessed 8 March 2010. 4. Stefan Wagstyl, “Alexander Lukashenka: ‘We Cannot be a Closed Country,’ ” Financial Times, 18 November 2008, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/525e1c14 -b431-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c.html. 5. The European Commission’s Belarus Strategy, Brussels, November 2006, http://ec.europa.eu/external_relations/belarus/intro/non_paper_1106.pdf. 284 Notes

6. “Alexander Lukashenka: Press Conference of 14 January 2007,” Belta, http:// www.belta.by, 15 January 2007. 7. Statement by Valery Voronetsky, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, at the Conference “Working Together – Strengthen- ing the European Neighborhood Policy,” Brussels, 3 September 2007, http:// www.mfa.gov.by/en/press/official-releases/fa1aad88b52f8cdf.html, date accessed 15 September 2007. 8. Marina Rakhley, “Ne slishkom li bystro Zapad menyayet knut na pryanik?” Belorusskiye Novosti, 10 September 2008, http://naviny.by/rubrics/ politic/2008/09/10/ic_articles_112_158892/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 9. Excerpts from Alexander Lukashenka’s interview to France Presse, Belorusskiye Novosti, 27 November 2008, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/ 2008/11/27/ic_articles_112_160104/, date accessed 8 March 2010. 10. David Marples, “Will Lukashenka be Welcomed in Prague?” The Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6, 26, 9 February 2009, http:// www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews per cent5Btt_news per cent5D=34482, date accessed 8 March 2010. 11. “Diyalog ES i Belarusi idze na umovakh Lukashenki,” Nasha Niva, 7 August 2009, http://www.nn.by/index.php?c=ar&i=29254, date accessed 8 March 2010. 12. Doyle McManus, “Clinton Hails Belarus for Arms Policy – Europe: President stops in former Soviet republic to commend it for giving up its nuclear weapons. But he also reprimands lawmakers for their resistance to political and economic reforms,” The Los Angeles Times, 16 January 1994, http://articles.latimes.com/1994-01-16/news/mn-12511 _1_nuclear-weapons, date accessed 21 February 2014. 13. More details are provided in Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How the Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2008, Chapter 6. 14. “US Orders Belarus Embassy Closed,” The Associated Press, 1 May 2007, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2008/05/01/2008-05-01_us _orders_belarus_embassy_closed_.html#ixzz0UDf1gvVE, date accessed 8 March 2010. 15. To “whup” Americans has become a Russian obsession. Aware of that, Alexander Lukashenka thus described Russia’s conflict with Georgia just a month after its end: “This is no war between Russia and Georgia. This is Americans getting kicked in the teeth for the first time in years, and this is so preciously important,” http://www.izvestia.ru/politic/article3120312/ index.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 16. Yury Drakakhrust, “Kavalachek pernika,” Belarusian Service, Radio Liberty, 5 September 2008, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/1196637.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 17. Alexander Klaskovsky, “Kak ya posporil s Bushem” (How I argued with Bush), Belorusskiye Novsosti, 16 December 2008, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/ 2008/12/16/ic_articles_410_160369/, date accessed 8 March 2010. 18. Andrew Wilson, “Belarus After its Post-Georgia Elections,” European Coun- cil on Foreign Relations, 26 October 2008, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/ commentary_wilson_on_belarus/, date accessed 8 March 2010. Notes 285

19. “A Seasonal Chill,” The Washington Post, Monday, 11 January 2010, http:// www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/10/AR20100110 02262.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 20. Dmitry Peskov, “Don’t Throw Flames on Russia-Belarus Oil Talks,” The Washington Post (Letters to the Editor), 16 January 2010, http://www .washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/15/AR2010011503897 .html?nav=rss_opinion/columns, date accessed 8 March 2010. 21. Exploring New Markets: Doing Business in Belarus, Norcous & Part- ners, March 2008, http://www.rln.lt/download.php/ﬁleid/270, date accessed 8 March 2010. 22. Belarus, Country Brief 2009, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank 2009, http:// web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BELARU SEXTN/0, contentMDK:20629010∼menuPK:328439∼pagePK:141137∼piPK: 141127∼ theSitePK:328431,00.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 23. Doing Business in 2010, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank 2009, http:// www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/DB10_Overview.pdf, date accessed 8 March 2010. 24. Belarus, Country Brief 2009, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank 2009, http:// web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BELARUSEX TN/0,,contentMDK:20629010∼menuPK:328439∼pagePK:141137∼piPK :141127∼theSitePK:328431,00.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 25. See, for example: Alexander Zaytsev, “Itogi vyborov: oppositsiyu kin- uli, a narod ostavili v durakakh,” Belorusskiye Novosti, 29 September 2008, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2008/09/29/ic_articles_112_159202; Irina Khalip, “Spasitelnaya lozh,” Yezhednevnyi Zhurnal, 22 April 2009; ej.ru/?a=note&id=9001, date accessed 8 March 2010. 26. Yan Maksymyuk, “Chym zaniatsa appazitsii?” Belarusian Service, Radio Liberty, 26 May 2009, http://www.svaboda.org/content/transcript/1740088 .html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 27. Balasz Jarabik, “Belarus: Are the Scales Tipping? Madrid,” FRIDE, a European Think Tank for Global Action, 3 March 2009, http://www.fride.org/ publication/576/belarus-are-the-scales-tipping, date accessed 8 March 2010. 28. Andrew Wilson, “A New Paradigm or the Old Balancing Act?” European Council on Foreign Relations, 26 October 2008, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/ commentary_wilson_on_belarus/, date accessed 8 March 2010. 29. Grigory Ioffe, “Understanding Belarus: Questions of Language,” Europe-Asia Studies, 2003, 55, 7, p. 1011. 30. Yury Drakakhrust, “Uroki Maldovy dlya Belarusi,” Belarusian Service, Radio Liberty, 14 April 2009, http://www.svaboda.org/content/transcript/1608696 .html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 31. Fedor Lukyanov, “Diktator naraskhvat,” Gazeta.RU, 26 March 2009, http:// www.gazeta.ru/column/lukyanov/2964341.shtml, date accessed 8 March 2010. 32. Yury Drakakhrust, “Viartannye gazet chy viartannye svabody?” Belarusian Service, Radio Liberty, 2 December 2008, http://www.svaboda.org/content/ transcript/1355300.html, date accessed 8 March 2010. 33. “Vilnius Unveils Caspian Pipe Pact,” 10 October, 2007, http://www .upstreamonline.com/live/article142128.ece, date accessed 21 February 2014. 286 Notes

34. Nicu Popescu and Andrew Wilson, “The Limits of Enlargement-lite: European and Russian Power in the Troubled Neighborhood,” European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2009, 5. 35. An identical reasoning might be applied to George W. Bush’s proclaim- ing that Georgia is a beacon of liberty on the same day (10 May 2005) the ﬁrst oil was pumped from the Baku end of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. 36. “Limited Economic Sanctions on Belarus,” 28 March 2012, Osrodek Studiow Wschodnich, Warsaw, http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/eastweek/2012 -03-28/limited-eu-economic-sanctions-belarus, date accessed 21 February 2014. 37. “Belarus: Stable Instability?” 18 June 2012, Carnegie Endowment for Inter- national Peace, Washington, D.C., http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/ 13/belarus-stable-instability/b0wi, date accessed 21 February 2014. 38. Grigory Ioffe, “Belarus: A Show of Solidarity,” Eurasia Daily Moni- tor, 14 October 2011, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx _ttnews[tt_news]=38530, date accessed 21 February 2014. 39. Ioffe, “Belarus: A Show of Solidarity.” 40. “Kornienko: This is Lack of Principles in International Organizations,” 9 July 2012, UDF.by, http://udf.by/english/politics/62253-kornienko-this -is-lack-of-principles-in-international-organizations.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 41. “Limited EU Economic Sanctions on Belarus.” 42. Zbigniew Brzezinski, “8 Geopolitically Endangered Species,” Foreign Pol- icy, January–February 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/ 01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page = full, date accessed 21 February 2014. 43. Vadim Gigin, “Really? – And so?” Belta, 20 April 2012, http://www.belta.by/ ru/blogs?auth_ID=16&art_ID=175, date accessed 21 February 2014. 44. “Kazly i Gurbanguly,” Prasky Accent, Talk Show of the Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 1 May 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/content/transcript/ 16799576.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 45. Tatyana Korovyonkova, “Lukashenko ne priyevlet gomoseksualizm,” 7 October 2011, http://news.tut.by/society/253393.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 46. “Lukashenko: Luchshe byt diktatorom, chem goloubym,” Vzglyad, 4 March 2012, http://www.vz.ru/news/2012/3/4/565885.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 47. Statement by Mr. Vladimir Makei, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, at the Plenary Session of the Eastern Partnership Summit, Vilnius, 29 Novem- ber 2013, http://www.mfa.gov.by/en/press/statements/b1b79ceb334a603c. html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 48. Tatyana Korovyonkova, “Belarus s zakrytymi granitsami prevratitsya v kotyol nedovolstva,” 15 September 2013, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2013/09/ 15/ic_articles_112_183008/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 49. In October 2012, Sannikov received political asylum in Great Britain. 50. See for example, “Zenon Pozniak ‘slil’ byudzhet ‘Govori Pravdu,’ ” Beloruskie Novosti, 1 November 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2012/11/01/ic _articles_112_179766/, date accessed 21 February 2014. Notes 287

51. Artyom Shraibman, “Oppozitsiya prodolzhayet delit belorusov na chuzhikh i svoikh,” 21 November 2013, http://news.tut.by/politics/375798.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 52. Rodger Potocki, “Enemies of Themselves,” Transitions Online, 6 December 2010, http://www.tol.org/client/article/22008-enemies-of-themselves.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 53. Ibid. 54. Ibid. 55. Ibid. 56. Interview with Yaroslaw Romanchuk, Salidarnasts, 23 March 2011, http:// gazetaby.com/cont/print.php?sn_nid=35221, date accessed 21 February 2014. 57. R. Rodger Potocki, “Enemies of Themselves.” 58. David J. Kramer and Damon Wilson, “When Sanctions Work,” New Atlanticist, 12 August 2010, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new -atlanticist/when-sanctions-work, date accessed 21 February 2014. 59. Ann Lewis, ed., The EU and Belarus: Between Moscow and Brussels, London: Federal Trust of Education and Research 2002, p. 61. 60. Andrew Wilson, “Modeling Belarus,” paper delivered at the international conference Future of Belarus, 25 May 2012, Vilnius, Lithuania. 61. Dmitry Petrushkevich, “ZAO Belorusskaya Oppozitsiya,” Interpolit 25 April 2012, http://interpolit.net/blogpost7383#, date accessed 21 February 2014. 62. Edward Lucas, “What the West Gets Wrong About Belarus,” Radio Liberty, 11 May 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/belarus_commentary _edward_lucas_what_the_west_gets_wrong/24097810.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 63. Andrei Dynko, “Shto, Neklyaev, pamagli tebe tvai maskali?” Nasha Niva, 10 December 2010, http://nn.by/?c=ar&i=47165,date accessed 21 February 2014. 64. “Bloger Feduta: chto, Dynko, pomogli tebe tvoyi amerikosy,” BSDP, 12 December 2010, http://bsdp.org/?q=be/node/9150, date accessed 20 December 2010. 65. Interview with Yaroslaw Romanchuk. 66. Ibid. 67. Edward Lucas, “What the West Gets Wrong about Belarus.” 68. Ibid. 69. Anais Marin, Sociological Study of the Composition of the Belarusian Society, Strasbourg: European Parliament, 8 May 2012, http://www.europarl.europa .eu/committees/en/studiesdownload.html?languageDocument=EN&ﬁle= 73991, date accessed 21 February 2014. 70. Ibid., p. 9. 71. Ibid., p. 11. 72. Ibid., p. 15. 73. Ibid., p. 19. 74. “Kolichestvo internet users v Belarusi za god uvelichilos na 17 per cent,” Marketing.by, 31 May 2012, http://marketing.by/main/market/analytics/ 0056238/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 75. Anais Marin, Sociological Study, p. 10. 76. Ibid., p. 42. 288 Notes

77. Francesco Giumelli and Paul Ivan, “The Effectiveness of EU Sanctions – An Analysis of Iran, Belarus, Syria and Myanmar (Burma),” European Pol- icy Center, 18 November 2013, http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id= 2&pub_id=3928, date accessed 21 February 2014. 78. Andrew Wilson, “Modeling Belarus,” paper delivered at the international conference Future of Belarus, 25 May 2012, Vilnius, Lithuania. 79. Dominique Arel, “The ‘Orange Revolution’: Analysis and Implications of the 2004 Presidential Election in Ukraine”, Third Annual Stasiuk-Cambridge Lecture on Contemporary Ukraine, 2005, p. 5, http://www.ukrainianstudies .uottawa.ca/pdf/Arel_Cambridge.pdf, date accessed 31 January 2011. 80. Marin, Sociological Study,p.23.

4 Lukashenka’s Rise to Power and Belarusian Politics

1. Valery Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka: Politichesky Portret, Moscow: Partizan, 2010, p. 12. 2. Ibid., p. 11. 3. Ibid., p. 14. 4. Ibid., p. 20. 5. Ibid., p. 23. 6. Ibid., p. 24. 7. Ibid., p. 29. 8. Ibid., p. 30. 9. Ibid., p. 31. 10. Ibid. 11. Ibid., p. 50. According to an alternative interpretation, in the Supreme Soviet of Belarus, only Valery Tsikhinya voted against the ratiﬁcation of the Belovezha agreement that ended the Soviet Union, whereas Lukashenka went to the toilet and thus did not take a vote (see for example, http://www.km.ru/front-projects/belovezhskoe-soglashenie/ kak-deputaty-sdavali-soyuz, date accessed 26 February 2014). 12. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 50. 13. Ibid., p. 52. 14. Ibid., p. 53 15. Viacheslav Kebich, Iskusheniye Vlastyu, Minsk: Paradox, 2008, p. 240. 16. Ibid., p. 240. 17. Ergali Gher, “Belorusskoye zerkalo,” Znamya, 2007, 1, p. 7, magazines. russ.ru/znamia/2007/1/ger8-pr.html, p. 9. 18. Dokumenty po Noveishei Istorii Belarusi, http://dakumenty.com/archives/ 12, date accessed 21 February 2014; Referendum o Sokhranenii SSSR, 17 March 1991, Spravka, http://ria.ru/history_spravki/20110315/354060265 .html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 19. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 79. 20. Ibid., p. 87. 21. Andrei Lyakhovich, “Pravyashchaya elita i byurokratiya,” Oleg Manaev (Ed.), Prezidentskie Vybory v Belarusi: Ot Ogranichennoi Byurokratii k Neogranichennomu Avtoritarizmu, Novosibirsk: Vodolei, 2006, p. 194. Notes 289

22. See the analysis of this campaign in Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littleﬁeld, 2008, pp. 23–26. 23. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 146. 24. The Treaty of Riga (signed in March 1921) ended the Russo-Polish war and established the border between Russia and Poland. This border ran across Belarus and Ukraine. In 1921, the representatives of the Belarusian political parties convened twice, in September 1921 in Prague and in October 1921 in Berlin. Whereas at the Prague conference they denounced the Riga Treaty, declared the entire territory of Belarus occupied by invaders, and agreed that the Council of the BPR operating in exile was the only legit- imate power in Belarus, at the Berlin conference the Council of the BPR declared that it annuls its political centers and discontinues its ﬁght with the Soviet power because the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic had con- solidated the Belarusian people and Minsk had become the center of the Belarusian national revival. 25. Vadim Gigin, “Op-position,” Belta, 28 October 2010, http://www.belta.by/ ru/blogs?art_ID=22&auth_ID=16, date accessed 21 February 2014. 26. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 141. 27. Ibid. 28. Ibid., p. 191. 29. Lukashenka’s nickname meaning father. 30. Klim Khaletski, “Oleg Manaev: Belorusy podderzhivali vsyo, chto gov- oril Batska,” UDF.by, 24 November 2011, http://udf.by/news/50659-oleg -manaev-belorusy-podderzhivali-vse-chto-predlagal-batka.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 31. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 497. 32. Ibid., p. 498. 33. Adam Michnik, “Bylem Sowieckim Bialorusinem,” Gazeta Wyborcza, 29 April 1995, http://wyborcza.pl/1,75477,2844639.html, date accessed 30 May 2014. 34. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 501. 35. Ibid., p. 502. 36. Ibid., p. 505. 37. Ibid., p. 513. 38. Ibid. 39. Lukashenka’s interview to the Reuters, Belorusskie Novosti, 27 November 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2012/11/27/ic_articles_112_180033/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 40. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 534. 41. Alessandra Stanley, “Crisis in the Balkans: Athens; NATO Bombing Tears at Greek Loyalties, Reawakening Anti-Americanism,” New York Times, 25 April 1999, http://www.nytimes.com/1999/04/25/world/crisis-balkans -athens-nato-bombing-tears-greek-loyalties-reawakening-anti.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 42. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 525. 43. Ibid., p. 688. 44. Victor Boichenia, “Yedinyi: politicheskii portret,” Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, 7 March 2006. 290 Notes

45. Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littleﬁeld, 2008, pp. 205–218. 46. Yanina Bolonskaya, “Nezakazannye tsifry,” Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, 26 November 2004. 47. Ibid. This argument recognizes the reality of Russian media being highly inﬂuential in Belarus but fails to take heed of the fact that short of enthu- siastically supporting Belarusian opposition the same media were full of Lukashenka thrashing. 48. “U nas v gostyakh Irina Khalip,” Draniki, 2006, http://www.draniki.com/ask/ halip.asp, date accessed 1 March 2009. 49. “Neklyaev i Sannikov proveli na vokzale usebelorusskii narodnyi sykhodz,” Belorusskie Novosti, 6 December 2010, http://naviny.by/rubrics/elections/ 2010/12/06/ic_articles_623_171561/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 50. Alexander Starikevich, “Zagadka 19 dekabrya,” Zautra Tvayoi Krainy, 20 December 2011, http://www.zautra.by/art.php?sn_nid=9793&sn_cat=7, date accessed 21 February 2014. 51. “Uroki Ploshchy,” Praski Accent, a talk show of the Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 20 December 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/ 24428450.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 52. Vadim Gigin, “Nekruglaya godovshchina,” Belta, 20 December 2011, http:// www.belta.by/ru/blogs?auth_ID=16&art_ID=118, date accessed 21 Febru- ary 2014. 53. Alexei Pikulik, “Strategii. 19 dekabrya 2010 goda: Ploshchad Zavisimosti,” Belorusskie Novosti, 22 December 2011, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/ 2011/12/22/ic_articles_410_176253/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 54. Yury Chausov, “Pora ukhodit s ploshchadi,” Za Praudu, 16 December 2011, http://zapraudu.info/pora-uxodit-s-ploshhadi/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 55. Alexander Klaskovsky, “Kogda Lukashenka predlozhit premyera otmorozku?,” Belorusskie Novosti, 28 January 2014, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2014/ 01/28/ic_articles_112_184397/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 56. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 545. 57. Ibid., p. 547. 58. Ibid., p. 548. 59. Ibid., p. 552. 60. Ibid. 61. Ibid. 62. Ibid. 63. Grigory Ioffe, “A Russian-Belarusian Friendship Thriller,” Eurasian Daily Monitor, 4 September 2013, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews per cent5Btt_news per cent5D=41313&no_cache=1#.Ur8zMPRDuSo, date accessed 21 February 2014. 64. Grigory Ioffe, “The Potash War: A Sequel,” Eurasian Daily Monitor, 12 Septem- ber 2013, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews per cent5Btt_news per cent5D=41355&no_cache=1#.Ur8zi_RDuSo, date accessed 21 Febru- ary 2014. 65. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 572. 66. Ibid. 67. Ibid., p. 571. Notes 291

68. Ibid. 69. Alexander Dugin, “Segodnya my vse Lukashenko,” Vzglyad, 7 June 2011, http://www.vz.ru/opinions/2011/6/7/497693.html, date accessed 21 February 2014.

5 Lukashenka’s Personality and Worldview

1. One example of the latter is Nikolay Shipilov, Fenomen Alexandra Lukashenko, selectively available online, http://lukashenko2008.ru/articles/biblioteka/ 66/, date accessed 21 February 2014. The book was released in 2005; the publisher is unknown. 2. Ales Antsypenka and Valer Bulgakaw, “A. Lukashenka – partret ulady i chalaveka,” Neviadomaya Belarus, Mensk, Galiyafy 2008, pp. 126–151. 3. Ibid., p. 128. 4. Ibid., p. 137. 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid., p. 138. 7. Ibid., p. 140. 8. Ibid. 9. Ibid., p. 141. 10. Ibid. 11. Ibid., p. 142. 12. Ibid. 13. Thomas De Waal, “How Gogol Explains the Post-Soviet World,” Foreign Pol- icy, 27 February 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/27/ how_gogol_explains_the_post_soviet_world_and_chekhov_and_dostoyevsky ?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full, 2, date accessed 21 February 2014. 14. At that time, Belarusians were not viewed apart from Russians, although the 1897 Russian census established a special entry for the Belarusians identiﬁed on the basis of their vernacular. 15. De Waal, “How Gogol Explains.” 16. According to Pavel Tereshkovich, in 1834, 64.7 per cent of Belarusians were serfs, the percentage exceeding those in Russia and Ukraine Pavel Tereshkovich, Etnicheskaya Istoriya Belarusi 19-go – nachala 20-go veka, Minsk: BGU, 2004, p. 62. 17. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 200. 18. Ibid., p. 205. 19. Alexander Prokhanov, “Missiya Lukashenko,” Zavtra, 13 July 2011, http:// www.zavtra.ru/content/view/2011-07-2611/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 20. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 218. 21. Ibid. 22. Ibid., p. 220. 23. Ibid. 24. Ibid., p. 221. 25. Ibid. 26. Ibid., p. 222. 292 Notes

27. “Ierarchia sotsialnykh distantsii,” The December 2007 National Survey by the IISEPS, http://www.iiseps.org/12-07-05.html, date accessed 15 September 2007. 28. Lukashenko schitayet, chto u yevropeiskikh liderov net yaits,” Belorusskie Novosti, 16 December 2011, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2011/12/16/ic _news_112_382934/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 29. “Lukashenka osudil golubyatnyu ministrov,” http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=bFq-SlWKuIc, uploaded 22 February 2011, date accessed 21 February 2014. 30. “Lukashenka osudil.” 31. Ibid. 32. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka, p. 289. 33. Ibid., p. 360. 34. Ibid., p. 293. 35. Vladimir Gostyukhin, “O predatelstve elity, nikchemnosti russkikh i patri- otizme Lukashenko,” Tut.by, 2 October 2012, http://news.tut.by/politics/ 13597.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 36. Grigory Ioffe, Review of the ﬁlms by Victor Dashuk (Film Director), Long Knives Night, (1999) and Reporting from a Rabbit Hutch, (2001), New York: Cinema Purgatorio, 2006; Slavic Review, 2010, 69, 3, pp. 730–731. 37. Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenko, p. 250. 38. Brian Bennett, The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus under Lukashenka, New York: Columbia University Press, 2011, pp. 278–279. 39. Ibid., p. 279. 40. Ibid., p. 280. 41. Ibid., p. 283. 42. Ibid., p. 278. 43. De Waal, “How Gogol Explains?” 44. Quoted in Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littleﬁeld, 2008, p. 172. 45. Grigory Ioffe, review of the book by Valery Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenko: Politicheskii Portret Bulletin Novosti NISEPI, 2010, 4, 58, pp. 108–113. 46. Alexander Lukashenka, Interview to Reuters, Belorusskie Novosti,27 November 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2012/11/27/ic_articles_112 _180033/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 47. Oxana Gaman-Golutvina, “Elites and Leadership in Russian Politics,” The Ashgate Research Companion to Political Leadership, Farnham: Asgate, 2009, pp. 273–274. 48. Robert Tucker, “The Dictator and Totalitarianism,” Barbara Kellerman (Ed.), Political Leadership: A Source Book, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1986, p. 53. 49. Hanna Arendt, “The Totalitarian Leader,” Barbara Kellerman (Ed.), Political Leadership: A Source Book, Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1986, p. 213. 50. Yury Drakakhrust, “Tsi mozhna siadzets na shtykakh,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 22 March 2012, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/ 24523995.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. Notes 293

51. Pitirim Sorokin, Chelovek, obshchestvo, tsivilizatsiya, Moscow: Politizdat, 1992, http://www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/Sociolog/Sorok2/index.php, date accessed 21 February 2014. 52. Margaret G. Hermann, “Ingredients of Leadership,” Margaret Hermann (Ed.), Political Psychology, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1986, p. 168. 53. Ibid., p. 171. 54. Ibid., p. 172. 55. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2012 Article IV Consultation and the Sec- ond Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Belarus. Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 12/50, 17 May 2012, http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/ pn/2012/pn1250.htm, date accessed 21 February 2014. 56. Micheline V. Guiton and Elizabeth Marvick, “Family Experience and Political Leadership: An Examination of the Absent Father Hypothesis,” International Political Science Review, 1989, 10, 1, p. 65. 57. Ibid., p. 69. 58. Anatoly Lysyuk, Sotsiokulturnaya determinatsiya politicheskogo liderstva: soderzhaniye, sposoby, evolutsiya, Chernovtsy: Bukrek, 2008. 59. Piotr Sztompka, “Kulturnaya travma v postkommunisticheskom obshch- estve,” Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, 2001, 2, pp. 7–8. 60. Lysyuk, Sotsiokulturnaya determinatsiya politicheskogo liderstva, pp. 233, 294. 61. Ibid., pp. 156–157. 62. Ibid., p. 241. 63. Ibid., p. 297. 64. Ibid., p. 298. 65. Ibid., p. 297.

Conclusion

1. Yury Drakokhrust, “The Spiral of Independence,” Russia in Global Affairs, 25 March 2012, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-Spiral-of -Independence-15504, date accessed 21 February 2014. 2. “By no means can Belarus be understood outside the context of the Russian civilization, and that pertains to both history and nowadays,” writes, for example, the Belarusian blogger and historian Alexander Shpakovsky (Alexander Shpakovsky, “Natsionalnaya idea: Chas Vandei Minul,” Belorusskie Novosti, 15 December 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/ 2012/12/15/ic_articles_410_180220/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 3. Drakokhrust, “The Spiral of Independence.” 4. “Moite vymya pered doikoi,” Interview with Andrei Konchalovsky, Snob, 9 October 2012, http://www.snob.ru/selected/entry/5357, date accessed 21 February 2014. 5. “Yevropa Svobody: Vybory v Belorussii i vybory v Gruzii,” Russian Ser- vice of Radio Liberty, 5 October 2012, http://www.svobodanews.ru/content/ transcript/24734628.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 6. Charles Tilly, Democracy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 7. Lina Klymenko and Sergiu Ghehina, “Determinants of Positive Attitudes Toward an Authoritarian Regime: The Case of Belarus,” The Soviet and Post-Soviet Review, 2012, 39, pp. 249–269. 294 Notes

8. Yury Drakakhrust, “Sviatlana Kalinkina, Maria Antuanneta i ‘mudak,’ ” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 5 December 2012, http://www.svaboda.org/ content/article/24790479.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 9. Yury Drakakhrust, “Satsialnaya teorya adnosnastsi,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 13 December 2012, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/ 24797015.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 10. Samuel A. Greene, “Russia: Society, Politics and the Search for Commu- nity,” Eurozine, December 2011, http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2011-12- 02-greene-en.html, date accessed 21 February 2014. 11. “World’s Most Repressive Regimes Resistant to Change,” Freedom House, 9 May 2007, http://www.freedomhouse.org/article/worlds-most-repressive -regimes-resistant-change. 12. Yaroslav Romanchuk, “Krizis: Belarus kak Israel,” Belorusskie Novosti, 25 July 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/2012/07/25/ic_articles_410 _178583/, date accessed 21 February 2014. 13. Pavel Ivanovich Chichikov, the main character in Gogol’s Dead Souls, paid visits to multiple landowners in order to purchase serfs who had passed away between censuses. The beneﬁt to the owners of those serfs being sold would come from not paying taxes on those serfs before the next census. The ben- eﬁt to Chichikov himself would be the opportunity to take out a huge loan against them (after accumulating quite a few dead souls) to acquire the great wealth he desired. 14. Drakokhrust, “The Spiral of Independence.” 15. Ibid. 16. Yury Drakokhrust, “O novom bolshinstve,” Nashe Mnenie, 21 January 2013, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/5060.html, date accessed 21 February 204.

Addendum

1. See Chapter 1 for the description of that 2011 situation. 2. Nursultan Nazarbayev has been president of Kazakhstan since the breakup of the Soviet Union. 3. Guido Westerwelle was Germany’s foreign minister from 2009 to 2011. 4. Radoslaw Sikorski has been Poland’s foreign minister since 2007. 5. In this case, nationalism means xenophobia. This is what the Russian word “natsionalism” usually means. 6. Independence Square in Minsk, the former Lenin Square. 7. Nikolay Statkevich, a former lieutenant colonel of the Soviet army and a ﬁrebrand member of the Belarusian opposition; often contributed to its divi- sion into irreconcilable factions; a 2010 presidential candidate promoted by the European Belarus coalition; arrested at the postelection night of 19 December 2010, in May 2011, sentenced to a six-year prison term for inciting gross violation of public order; still in jail at this writing (December 2013). 8. Andrei Sannikov served as Belarus’s deputy minister of foreign affairs from 1994 to 1996; resigned during the standoff between the president and the parliament; became an unafﬁliated member of the opposition; founded the Internet portal Charter 97.org, a mouthpiece of the most intransigent part of the opposition; in 2010, became a presidential candidate promoted by the Notes 295

European Belarus coalition; along with Nikolay Statkevich was among the leaders of the postelection rally on 19 December 2010; during that rally he announced the formation of a government of national salvation; arrested along with his wife Irina Khalip following the dispersal of the rally; in May 2011, sentenced to a five-year prison term; solicited presidential pardon and was released in April 2012; in November 2012, received asylum in Great Britain. 9. Dmitry Uss, a presidential hopeful without a cohesive program, public speak- ing skills, or name recognition; arrested on 19 December 2010; in May 2011, sentenced to a 5.5-year prison term; petitioned for a presidential pardon; released from jail on 1 October 2011. 10. Sannikov and Uss petitioned for a presidential pardon, as did some other inmates, such as Dmitry Bondarenko, who had been on Sannikov’s campaign staff; Statekevich did not ask for a pardon and is still in jail. 11. Mr. Lukashenka means giving excessive freedom to conduct electoral campaigns. 12. Dmitry Konovalov, born 1986, was named the perpetrator of the terrorist act of 11 April 2011 in Minsk subway along with Vladislav Kovalev. Both were sentenced to capital punishment and executed in March 2012. 13. On 3 July 2008, an explosion took place during the gala concert in downtown Minsk; 50 people were wounded. 14. As was explained in the Introduction, the Russian word koziol, literally meaning a male goat, is used to refer to someone’s being unintelligent, ill-mannered, clumsy, and/or doing something outright foolish. 15. In April 2012, Lukashenka actually loosened control of the Western border by reallocating some personnel to the border with Ukraine and by focus- ing on control of entry to Belarus but not on the exit of non-Belarusians. As Lukashenka acknowledged in his 25 April 2012 speech delivered at a food processing plant in Bykhov (southern Belarus), almost immediately the EU received an influx of the illegals from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries of Asia and the “adjacent countries” called upon Belarus to restore the previous border control regime. Salidarnast, 28 April 2012, http://www.gazetaby.com/cont/print.php?sn_nid=44851, date accessed 19 February 2014. 16. This is a reference to the conditions of Russia leasing port facilities in Sevastopol, Ukraine. 17. In 2010, abnormally high temperatures around 35–40 degrees Celsius were sustained in European Russia for about one month, causing crop failure and numerous wild fires. 18. The point that this remark makes is that the Non-Black-Earth zone of Russia (i.e., the northern half of European Russia, including all three Russian regions that border Belarus) is a living symbol of massive and failed invest- ment in agriculture. Belarus has natural conditions very similar to the middle or temperate part of that zone and yet it has succeeded in increasing agricultural productivity well above and beyond what has been achieved in neighboring Russian oblasts. 19. This remark shows that the interviewer had been scrutinized. Indeed, my 1990 Russian-language book (Grigory Ioffe, Selskoye Khoziaistvo Nechernjzemya: Territorialnye Problemy, Moscow: Nauka, 1990), published 296 Notes

in Moscow after my emigration to the United States, was all about the Non-Black-Earth zone. 20. A reference to the much-trumpeted and massive 1974 Soviet state invest- ment program to boost agriculture and rural settlement in the Non-Black- Earth Zone, encompassing 29 regions (oblasts and autonomous republics) of European Russia. 21. Edward Lucas, “What the West Gets Wrong about Belarus,” Radio Liberty, 11 May 2011, http://www.rferl.org/content/belarus_commentary_edward _lucas_what_the_west_gets_wrong/24097810.html, date accessed 21 Febru- ary 2014. 22. Stanislaw Bogdankevich, from 1991 to 1995 presided over Belarus’ Central Bank; a senior opposition ﬁgure, an honorary chairman of the United Civic Party of Belarus. 23. Piotr Prokopovich served as Chairman of Belarus’s Central Bank from 1998 to 2011; prior to that appointment served as an MP (1990–1995) and as Lukashenka’s deputy chief of staff (1996) and deputy prime minister (1996– 1998). Prokopovich suffered a heart attack during Belarus’s ﬁnancial crisis of 2011 and retired; but in August 2012, he was appointed assistant to the president of Belarus. 24. Sergei Sidorski served as Belarus’s prime minister from 2003 to 2010; prior to working for the government had a technical science career as a specialist in vacuum plasma technology. 25. This zone straddles the border of Ukraine and Belarus. 26. Grigory Ioffe, “Belarus and Chernobyl: Separating Seeds from Chaff,” Post- Soviet Affairs, 2007, 23, 4, pp. 353–356. 27. At the time of this interview, the military intervention in Libya (March– October 2011) by the coalition of 19 states led by the United States and United Kingdom was in full swing. 28. Georgiy Gongadze was a Ukrainian journalist of Georgian origin who was kidnapped and murdered in 2000. The circumstances of his death became a national scandal and a focus for protests against the government of then President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine. 29. Ural Latypov, an ethnic Tatar born and raised in Bashkortostan, Russia. After graduating from the KGB college in Minsk (in 1974) accepted a job offer from that school and stayed in Belarus; served as assistant to the president of Belarus (1994–1998); minister of foreign affairs (1998–2000), secretary of Belarus’s Security Council (2000–2001), and the president’s chief of Staff (2001–2004); in 2006, started a new career in corporate business. 30. Vagit Alekperov, a Russian tycoon of Azerbaijani descent, president and owner of Lukoil, one of Russia’s premier oil companies; in 2011, was the eighth-richest man in Russia worth $13.9 billion. 31. Piotr Masherov – First Secretary of the Communist Party of Belarus from 1965 till his death is a suspicious car accident in 1980. During the Second World War, was one of the leaders of the underground partisan movement in Belarus. As Belarus’s leader Masherov acquired the reputation of an uncor- rupt and decent politician. To this day, many people believe that the accident was staged to prevent Masherov’s advancement to Prime Minister of the Soviet Union. Notes 297

32. Lukashenka refers to the mass violation of public order on Manezhnaya Square in Moscow on 11 December 2011. On that day, about 5000 people gathered to protest killing of Yegor Sviridov, an ethnic Russian fan of the Moscow soccer club Spartak. Sviridov perished in a 6 December fight between a group of soccer club fans and a group of youths from the North Caucasus. Many ethnic Russians construed the action of law enforcement agencies as an attempt to cover up an interethnic skirmish. A meeting on Manezhnaya resulted in clashes with the police. Ten people were injured in those clashes and several dozen Russian youths were arrested. In the wake of this clash with police a series of spontaneous meetings followed as well as new clashes between ethnic Russians and natives of the North Caucasus republics. 33. Under Masherov, the pace of secondary school Russification was at its fastest; during his tenure, parents could petition secondary schools administrations to relieve their children from taking Belarusian as a subject, and many took this opportunity. 34. During the 14 December 2010 meeting with eight US scholars and Belarus experts, Lukashenka actually elaborated on his not pushing for Neklyaev’s criminal investigation after Neklyaev, in his capacity as chairman of the Belarusian Writers Union, allegedly had appropriated state funds and spent them on his own drinking orgies. Neklyaev is indeed a cured alcoholic. 35. Vladimir Konoplyov, a member of Lukashenka’s original 1994 electoral team, a former policeman from Mogilev Oblast, in 2004–2007 was Speaker of the Belarusian Parliament. 36. James Kirchik, “Belarus, a Land of no Applause,” World Affairs, 14 November 2011, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/belarus-land-no-applause, date accessed 21 February 2014. 37. See notes 23 and 24. 38. Leonid Maltsev, From 2009 to 2013, secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus. 39. Russia actually purchased the remaining 50 per cent of the Beltransgaz shares in November 2011. 40. The first 50 per cent of shares of Beltransgas had been sold in 2007. 41. In the autumn of 2012, Bloomberg actually came up with a $30 billion appraisal of Belaruskalii. 42. This prediction never materialized. Index

Abkhazia, 97 Belarus Democracy Act, 90, 94, 104 affective disposition, 7, 12, 14, 155 Belarusian language, 62–3, 65, 67, 75, agricultural academy, 122, 123, 241 130, 146, 176, 192, 251 agriculture, 21, 38, 39, 41, 47, 123, Belarusian nationalism, 13, 63–6, 279 125, 172, 175, 176, 206, 225, 226, Belarusian People’s Republic, 132 232, 241, 242, 295, 296 Belarusian Popular Front, 63, 107, Akhiezer, Alexander, 71, 282 128, 131–2, 138, 148–9, 173, 176, Alexandria, 132, 246 192, 223–4 All-Belarusian People’s Assembly Belarusian Potassium Company, (Convention), 135, 146, 175, 257 50, 152 Almond, Mark, 11, 12, 271 Belarusian regime, 88–9, 99–100, 111, anti-Russian narrative, 185 115–16, 118 anti-Russian sentiment, 192 Belarusization, 132, 176 anti-Semite, anti-Semitism, 173, 174, Belaruskalii, 44, 50, 152, 171, 239, 223, 258, 271 262, 297 Antsypenka, Ales, 156–8, 183, 291 Belaya Rus (political movement), Arendt, Hanna, 178, 292 178, 224 army, 15, 22, 48, 81, 107, 122–3, BELAZ, 21, 226 227, 294 Belgrade, 140–1 Astana, 111, 204 Belneftekhim, 9, 94–5 Austria, 96, 106, 196, 218–19 Beltransgaz, 44, 261–2, 297 authoritarian Bennett, Brian, 15, 168, 170, 272, 292 leader, 10, 71, 178–9 Berezovsky, Boris, 221 leadership, 61, 182 Berlusconi, Silvio, 92 power, 72 besieged fortress, 142, 183 regime, 15, 58–9, 86, 99, 148, 186, bisexuals, 197 189, 293 Black-to-Baltic-Sea axis, 100 rule, 60, 68 Bobruisk, 161, 210, 258 russians, 101 Bogdankevich, Stanislaw, 176, savior ﬁgure, 58, 186 225, 296 solution, 59 Bondurkov incident, 125, 174, 234–6 system, 136 Bozhelko, Oleg, 237–40 authoritarianism, 53, 55, 59, 67, 87, Brest, vi, 24, 46, 48, 56, 122, 156, 165, 182, 187, 280 181, 196, 206, 208 Azerbaijan, 4, 87, 98, 100, 102–3, Briansk, 267 114–15, 188, 251, 296 Brussels, 5, 6, 15, 89–91, 97–9, 106, 115, 187–9, 273, 278, 283, 287 Baltika (brewing company), 264, 276 Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 100, 104, 286 Bangalore square, 249 Bulakhov, Dmitry, 238–9 Barroso, Manuel, 31, 105, 163, 203–4 Bulgakau (Bulgakaw), Valer, 66, 157–8, Baumgaertner, Vladislav, 152–3 160, 183, 281, 291 BBC, 256 Bush, George W., 175, 286

298 Index 299

Carnegie Endowment for Dashuk, Victor, 168, 292 International Peace, 6, 9, 11, De Gaulle, Charles, 231 271–2, 277, 286 deindustrialization, 23 Catholic, 56, 69, 81, 92, democracy promotion, 6, 14, 17, 59, 182, 186 86, 100–1, 115, 117–18 Central Election Commission, 81–2, devaluation, 41, 43, 249, 276 103, 135, 143, 147 development in breadth, 39 Chausov, Yury, 148, 290 development in depth, 39 Chechnya, 143, 149, 205–6 De Waal, Thomas, 60, 158, 172, 280, Chernobyl, 34, 89, 150, 163–4, 174, 291–2 203–4, 227–31, 275 dialect, 62, 144, 170 Chernomyrdin, Victor, dirty bomb, 206 136, 224 Dnieper River, 120, 233 Chernyavskaya, Yulia, 73, 282–3 doing business (report), 96, 285 China, 46, 48, 96, 195, 228 Dorenko, Sergei, 76–7, 162, 282 Chizh, Yury, 246 double standard, 4, 88, 97–9, 114, Chubais, Anatoly, 131, 139, 155 118, 188 civic nationalism, 67, 176, 192 Drakakhrust, Yury, 4, 53, 56, 117, 153, cleft countries, 56 178, 187, 189–90, 193, 271, 273, Clinton, Bill, 93, 284 284–5, 292, 294 Clinton, Hillary, 111 drinking (alcohol), 235–6, 253, CNN, 256, 283 268, 297 cold war, x, 115, 280 drugs, 206 Collective Security Treaty Dugin, Alexander, 155, Organization (CSTO), 151 277, 291 college students, 44, 121, 254, 267 Duma, 139 combines (harvesting), 21, 125, 242, 254 Eastern Partnership, 92, 286 command system, 125, 131 Eastern Slavs, 18, 61, 187 communist party, 2, 82, 122–5, 129, East Slavic countries (states), 15, 19, 135, 144, 158, 175, 223–4, 296 25, 27–9, 31, 33, 37, 40, 49, 53, communists, 26, 107, 125, 137, 272 58, 60, 65, 180, 189, 274 constitution, 133, 134–7, 142, 145, East Slavic ethnicity, 64 257, 261, 262 East Slavic world, 12, 142, 175 constitutional amendment, 135, 145 East Slavic worldview, 56 constitutional court, 135 Eberhardt, Piotr, 56, 279 constitutional crisis, 131, 133 education, vi, 24, 33–5, 37, 47, 72–3, constitutional liberalism, 136 120, 122, 144, 213, 259, 274, 287 constitutional referendum, 145 elections, vi, ix, 4, 7, 12, 26–7, 41, 50, corruption, 12, 27, 55, 58, 72, 78, 113, 68–9, 79–80, 82, 83–4, 87, 90–1, 125, 127–30, 145, 170, 196 97, 103, 109, 111, 118, 124, 128, Council of Europe, xi, 89, 90 130, 133, 134, 138–40, 142, coup, 6, 117, 125, 135–6 144–7, 149, 152, 156–7, 160, 163, cultural divide, 4, 53, 56, 117 172, 174, 197, 198–9, 202–3, 209, currency, ix, 41–3, 146, 149–50, 171, 222, 253–4, 257, 265, 266, 268, 195, 227, 242, 249, 250, 257, 259, 270, 283–4, 290 262, 266, 276 embassy, 94–5, 167, 216 custom union, 42, 50, 152, 250 end of history (thesis), 10, 157 Czech, 66, 92, 107, 252, 264 environmental determinism, 17 300 Index ethnic nationalism, 61, 171, 176 tugofwar,4,14 ethnic stereotypes, 246 underpinnings, 115 Euronews, 150, 256 geopolitics, 14, 18, 89, 100–1, 113, European Commission, 9, 90–1, 94, 115, 117–18, 279 106, 162, 283 geostrategic interest, 89, 100 European Russia, 39, 40, 158, 295 Germans, 70, 208, 209, 227, European Union (EU), 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 230, 242 14, 15, 19, 40, 43, 48, 49, 52, 54, Germany, 1, 8, 39, 40, 42, 87, 89, 106, 60, 87–90, 91, 92–106, 115, 116, 143, 146, 164, 170, 178, 196, 198, 119, 150, 163, 173, 187–9, 196–7, 240–2, 258, 263, 294 204, 271–2 Gher, Ergaly, 74–6, 127 Gigin, Vadim, 64–5, 104–5, 132, 148, fear (as a factor of self-expression), 19, 255–6, 281, 286 81, 83, 85, 128, 187, 189 Gogol, Nikolay, 60, 192, 280, Feduta, Alexander, 68, 108, 128, 291–2 202–3, 221, 281, 287 Gomel, 8, 21, 22, 156, 281 fifth column, x, 67, 173, 202–3, Gonchar, Victor, 135, 142–3, 238–9 224–5, 237, 252 Goncharik, Vladimir, 109, 144 financial crisis, ix, 25, 30, 41, 42, 72, Gongadze, Georgiy, 239, 296 80, 83, 152, 175, 184, 189, 193, Gorbachev, Mikhail, 3, 11, 15, 65, 220, 225, 249, 257, 271, 296 123–5, 139, 144, 159, 173, 235, flash mob, 248, 254–5 242, 265 Forbes Magazine, 33, 219 Gorbachev, Raisa, 265 Freedom House, 6, 8, 104, 188, 191, Grand Duchy of Lithuania, viii, 63, 270–2, 294 65, 66, 132, 192, 281 Fukushima, 229, 231 see also Lithuania Great Patriotic War, 133, 192 Gaidar, Yegor, 131, 155 great power complex, 151 gay, 105, 163–4, 195, 197–8 see also imperial complex see also homosexual Greece, 7, 43, 60, 86, 119, 141, 195 geopolitical Greene, Samuel, 12, 55, 190, 271, antipodes, 17 279, 294 aspect, 146 Grodno, 22, 117, 144, 210, 217 aspirations, 101 gross domestic product (GDP), vi, center of power, 49 26–7, 29–31, 37, 41, 45–8, 257, concerns, 105 266, 274 expectation, 99 gross national income (GNI), 37, 40 factors, 20 Grybauskaite, Dalia, 93 imagination, 100, 188 GUAM, 100 interests, 104 issues, 20 health care, vi, 33–4, 37, 47 leanings, 106 High-Tech Park, 23 model, 59 Hitler, Adolph, 209, 240 niche, 154 HIV, 36–7, 75, 163 orientation, 112, 282 Hofstede, Geert, 58–9, 279 perspective, 155 homophobia, 105, 161, 173 project, 99 homosexual, 105, 163, 173, 197 situation, 1, 146, 205 see also gay terms, 112 Human Development Index, ix, 13, 37 Index 301 human rights, x, 4, 8, 10–11, 20, 52, Kebich, Viacheslav, 26, 82, 124–6, 71, 81, 96, 98, 102, 106, 114, 118 128–31, 202, 266–9, 288 Huntington, Samuel, viii, 4, 14, 16, KGB, 5, 80, 81, 110, 143, 152, 168, 53, 56–8, 181, 272, 278 199, 223, 237, 282, 296 Kiriyenko, Victor, 69–70, 294 ice hockey, vi, 165–6, 194, 217, 246 Klaskovsky, Alexander, 108, 149, 153, identity, 4, 15, 19, 25, 44, 45, 49, 51, 280, 284, 290 52, 66, 113, 158, 169, 179, 183, Klaus, Vaclav, 92 185–8, 210, 279 Komsomol (Young Communist imperial complex, 149, 151 League), 121–3, 202 see also great power complex Konchalovsky, Andrei, 52, 59, 186, import tariff, 42 278, 280, 293 income (personal), 40, 72, 193 Konovalov, Dmitry, 201, 295 income distribution (inequality, ratio), Kopys, 120, 233 14, 26, 31, 33, 47, 58, 126, 232 Kozulin, Alexander, 9, 82, 90, 96, 107, income tax, 24 110, 144–5, 157–8 Independence Day, 93, 135, 201 Kramer, David, 6, 8, 9, 14, 104, 110, Independence Square, 8, 110, 112, 188, 270, 271–2, 287 126, 147–8, 249, 294 Krol, George, 93 Independent Institute for Kuchma, Leonid, 207, 250, 296 Socio-Economic and Political Kudrin, Alexei, 155 Studies (IISEPS), vi, 52, 80–3, Kupchina, Elena, 105 107–8, 144, 162, 193, 271 last dictator(ship) of Europe, 14, 77, infant mortality, 34, 36 87–8, 105, 107, 272, 292 inflation, 42, 44, 127–8, 130, 181 Latypov, Ural, 244–6 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 8, Latyszonek, Oleg, 56, 279 13, 37, 41–3, 47, 88, 95, 180–1, Lenin, Vladimir, 172, 216, 266 275–7, 293 Leonov, Vassily, 241–4 internet, 37, 54, 64, 67, 107, 115, 191, lesbianism, 164, 197 255, 287, 294 liberal democracy, viii, 58, 161 Israel, 1, 23, 24, 48, 161, 192, 201, Libya, 172, 231, 296 209, 210, 246, 294 life expectancy, 34, 36–7 Lithuania, 8, 50, 57, 63, 65, 66, 74, 76, Jarabik, Balazs, 10, 54, 98, 101, 92, 93, 100, 106, 113, 115, 126–7, 270, 279 132, 145, 192, 211, 281, 283 Jewish lobby, 209 see also Grand Duchy of Lithuania Jews, 63, 161–2, 173, 201, 209–12, Lithuanians, 70, 162 217, 244–6, 251, 257–8 Lucas, Edward, 110, 113–14, 219, 287, 296 Kaczynski, Lech, 220–1 Lukashenka, Alexander Kalinkina, Svetlana, 189–90, approval/electoral rating of, 10, 72, 221–2, 294 84, 136, 145, 152–3, 193 KAMAZ, 226–7 as accidental president, 216, 221–2 Karbalevich, Valer, xi, 13, 80, 122, 124, as Batska, 137, 177, 289 126, 129–30, 132–3, 140, 150, as commander-in-chief, 260–1 151, 153, 156, 158–61, 166, 168, as dictator, 14, 54, 88, 105, 164, 221, 252, 272, 281, 283, 288–91 171, 176–8, 195, 197, 199, Karpenko, Gennady, 138, 238, 240 240–1, 279 302 Index

Lukashenka, Alexander – continued Milosevic, Slobodan, 140–1 as equal opportunity offender, 162 Minsk-Arena (stadium), 232 as family man, 212–13 missile defense, 206, 260 as hillbilly, 131, 138, 175, 238 Mogilev, vii, 21–2, 117, 121–8, as kolkhoznik, 60, 138, 175, 254 213–14, 221, 226, 233, 239, 241, as oligarch, 232 243, 297 as orthodox atheist, 157, 165 Moscow, 1, 5–7, 21, 48–9, 55, 61, as Robin Hood, 12, 130 73–7, 111–13, 124–5, 131, 135, as salesman, 179, 191–2 137, 141, 151, 170, 174, 180, 187, as state farm director, 26, 93, 122–3, 189, 205–6, 220–1, 241, 244–5, 125, 155, 180, 235 248–9, 263, 267 as womanizer, 124 Mozyr, 21–2, 50, 194, 208–9 Lukashenka, Kolya, vii, 18, 92, Munich treaty, 97 214–15, 233 Myasnikovich, Mikhail, 128, 209–10, Lukashenka regime, 5–6, 54, 67, 89, 261, 268, 275 101, 147 Lukashenka, Yekaterina, 120 NAFTAN, 21–2 Lukoil, 245, 296 national character, 52, 55, 61, 85, 187 Lukyanov, Fedor, 49, 99, 277, 285 national emblem, 132 Lynch, Allen, 16, 272 see also state symbols Lysyuk, Anatoly, 53, 181–4, 278, 293 National Endowment for Democracy, 7, 109–10 Makei, Vladimir, 105–6, 167, 286 national psyche, 160 Manaev, Oleg, xi, 4, 10, 108, 137, 283, nationalism 288–9 Belarusian, 13, 62–6, 279 Manichean worldview, 71, 171 ethnic, 61, 192 Marin, Anais, 114–15, 117, 272, 287–8 civic, 67, 171, 176 market fundamentalism, 171, NATO, 48, 89, 98, 140–1, 152, 191, 175, 271 227, 289 market reform, 26–8, 126, 129–31 Neklyaev, Uladzimer, 4, 7, 82, 107–8, Marples, David, 85, 101, 283–4 111–12, 147, 252–3, 278, 287, Martsev, Piotr, 110 290, 297 Martynov, Sergei, 2, 9, 91–2, 102, neoliberalism, 11, 45 111, 271 Nikolyuk, Sergei, xi, 50, 71–2, 80–1, Masherov, Piotr, 126, 225, 247–8, 83–5, 108, 275, 278, 281, 283 251, 296 Nikonov, Viacheslav, 61, 280 Matskevich, Vladimir, 237, 240 Non-Black-Earth zone, 207, 295 MAZ, 21, 226–7 Novopolotsk, 21–2 Mechkovskaya, Nina, 63, 66, 67, 280–1 oligarch, ix, 11–12, 27, 33, 43, 49, 67, Medvedev, Dmitry, 48, 111, 152, 154, 88, 137, 152–3, 171–2, 177–8, 172, 180, 205, 218, 267 195, 205, 231–2, 246, 258, 261 Medvedev, Roy, 221, 273 opposition, vi, 3–10, 12, 19, 26, 40, Melyantsov, Denis, 108, 280 42–9, 52–4, 62, 66, 67, 72–3, 80–2, mental characteristics, 69–70 83, 85, 87–8, 89–92, 93, 95, 97–9, Merkel, Angela, 102 102–4, 107–18, 129, 133–4, 201–3, Michnik, Adam, 138, 289 210, 221–4, 239–40, 249, 252, Milinkevich, Alexander, 82, 97, 107, 254, 258, 276, 283, 290, 294, 296 109, 111, 144–7, 224, 252 Orenstein, Mitchell, 10 Index 303

Oreshkin, Dmitry, 154–5 roots, 211 Organization for Security and sponsors, 110 Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), political correctness, 55, 57, 161, 164 9, 91 political culture, 13, 24, 41, 42, 116, Orsha, 120, 233 164, 182 Orthodox political elite, 46, 49, 71, 118, 138, christianity, church, community, 140, 147–8, 153–4, 187–8 vii, 57, 69, 81, 141, 186 political party (parties), viii, 7, 68, civilization, tradition, 4, 56, 181–2 79–81, 85, 107, 117, 128, 132, Oswald, Lee Harvey, 223 178, 289 O Tuathail, Gerard, 58, 279 political prisoners, 9, 90, 92, 102, 103, 113 pale of settlement, 209, 212 political regime, 40, 47, 52, 58–9, 80, Parfyonov, Leonid, 55 90, 95, 97, 108, 186, 188–9 paternalism, 19, 53, 58, 60, 64, 71–2, political system, vi, 69, 78, 104 116, 158, 182, 186 politically incorrect, 17, 60, 86, 162 Pavlyuchenko, Dmitry, 143, Portugal, 204 237–8, 240 potash, 50, 65, 127, 152, 239, Pazniak, Zianon, 63, 107, 128–9, 131, 277–8, 290 198, 223, 267 potassium, 22, 50, 152, 239 peasant commune, 186 Potocki, Rodger, 7, 109–11, 270, 287 pensions, vi, 26, 28, 31–2, 47, 92, power vertical, 158 127–8, 220 Primakov, Yevgeny, 141 Perestroika, 61, 123–4, 144 privatization, ix, 8, 11, 26, 27, 44–6, personality cult, 178, 247 126–7, 129, 141, 176, 189, petrochemical (industry), 21–2, 94 261, 263 phonetics (Belarusian), 64, 144, 170, Prokhanov, Alexander, 155, 159, 176, 183 277, 291 Pikulik, Alexei, 68, 108, 148, 281, 290 propaganda, 72, 85, 110, 148–9, Poland, 40, 44, 56, 69, 75–6, 88, 91–2, 178–9, 182, 248 96, 100, 102–3, 106, 132, 138, Putin, Vladimir, 15–16, 27, 51, 53, 60, 146, 164, 182, 205, 211, 220–1, 88, 95, 104, 111, 140, 149–50, 257, 289, 294 152–5, 158, 162, 164–5, 172, 180, Poles, 56, 63, 65, 69–70, 76, 162–3, 191, 205, 207, 212–13, 263, 267, 182, 211–12, 220 272, 278 Polesye, 212 Polish Qaddaﬁ, Muammar, 231 border, 122 economy, 257 radar station, 206 elite, 220 radio Liberty, xi, 19, 26, 53, 91, 95, 99, geographer, 56 132, 147, 153, 178, 187, 219, 255, intelligence, 7 271, 273, 276, 278, 280, 284–7, language, 62, 65–6, 87, 93, 290, 292–4, 296 144, 220 Radkov, Alexander, 170–1, 213, 218, minister of foreign affairs, 91, 163 224, 228, 232, 234, 236–7, 240, national consciousness, 56 243, 246, 251, 253–4, 260, 265–9 nationalism, 62 Radzik, Ryszard, 66, 281 prime minister, 102–3 Radzikhovsky, Leonid, 154 researcher, 181 Rahr, Alexander, 8 304 Index

Ranevskaya, Fayina, 16 Saint Petersburg, 55, 108, 131, rapprochement (with Belarus), 5, 19, 170, 174 87, 89, 91, 96, 98, 104, 106, 115 sanctions, 5–6, 8–10, 54, 88–9, 91–5, ration cards, 126 101–4, 113, 115–16, 118, 162, Realpolitik, 136 188, 205, 224, 252, 270, 279, referendum, 89, 128, 131–7, 139, 142, 286–8 145, 150 Sannikov, Andrei, 4, 7, 82, 103, 107, refinery, 21, 22, 47, 50, 88, 103, 226 108, 112, 147, 200, 202, 286, 290, Remnick, David, 55–6, 58 294, 295 riot police, 7, 110, 133, 143, 147, 200, Sarkozy, Nicolas, 231 232 Sberbank, 44, 250 Rojansky, Matthew, 6, 9, 10, 270 Schengen visas, 106, 114, 178 Romanchuk, Yaroslaw, 4, 82, 110, 112, secret police, 109, 155, 203, 213 147, 192, 287, 294 self-organization, 53, 186–7 Romney, Mitt, 190 Serbia, 140–1 Roosevelt, Franklin, 231 Shapiro, Semyon, 210 rural villagers, 75, 156, 175, 179, 254 Sheiman, Victor, 143 Russia-Belarus Union, 113, 138–9, 141 Sheremet, Pavel, 143, 221–2 see also union state Shklov, vii, 122–3, 214 Russian shock therapy, ix, 11, 45, 141 aid, 155 Shushkevich, Stanislav, 93, 128–9, empire, viii, 25, 66 167, 198, 221, 223, 267 imperialism, 88 shuttle trader, 42, 106, 171 language, ix, 3, 18–19, 25, 66, 74, Sikorski, Radoslaw, 7, 91, 102, 163, 76, 105, 107–8, 130–2, 144–5, 164, 197, 294 162, 168, 170, 176, 183, 185, Silitski, Vitali, 54, 95, 99, 273 221, 223 Slavophiles, 154 leaders, 155, 172–4, 260 Slovakia, 92, 98 market, 152 Slovaks, 66 media, 73, 150, 164, 191, 290 Smolensk, 43, 206, 267 money, 172 social change, 69, 70, 181–2 oil, 42, 47, 50, 88, 93, 100 social contract (compact), 24, 54 oligarch, 43, 49, 152, 153 social equity, 71, 127, 171, 175, political elite, 138, 153, 154 186, 231 rubles, 129, 150, 185, 220, 250 social networks, 248 society, 61, 67, 71, 158, 279 Sorokin, Pitirim, 178–9, 293 TV, 55, 121, 152, 162, 266 sovereignty, 25, 66–7, 129, 135, 139, world, 76, 186, 191, 212 140, 149, 150, 153, 155, 182, 192, Russians, 7, 16, 53, 56–7, 61–73, 101, 211 111, 138, 140, 146, 158, 160, 162, Soviet Union, 1, 15, 19, 23, 26, 28, 50, 165, 170, 172, 186, 191–2, 197, 60, 93, 121, 125–6, 128–30, 136, 209, 211–12, 218, 220, 223, 230, 139, 141, 154, 159, 173–5, 178, 244, 251–2, 258, 262 182, 185, 188, 207, 218, 224, 230, Russification, 66, 297 235, 241, 244, 248, 250, 288, Ryabchuk, Mykola, 117 294, 296 Rzeczpospolita, viii, 57 Stalin, Joseph (Iosif), 66, 71, 73, 138, 149, 155, 187, 216–17, 231, 243 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 66 Starovoitov, Vassily, 241, 243–4 Said, Edward, 57, 279 state capitalism, 46, 277 Index 305 statehood, 132–3 Uralkalii, 50, 152 state symbols, see national emblem Uzbekistan, 26, 98, 100, 188 subsidies, 41–3, 46, 110, 153 supreme Soviet, 93, 123–5, 127–9, Venezuela, ix, 49 132–4, 137, 157, 288 Viber, 24–5 Sztompka, Piotr, 181, 293 Victory Day, 196 Victory Square, 225, 249 Tabachnik, Dmitro, 117 Vilnius, 74, 105–6, 113, 181, 285–8 Tatarstan, 149, 206 visa regime, 106, 114 Tell the Truth (civic campaign), 108–9, Vitebsk, 21, 65, 156, 204, 221, 111, 147 233, 260 terrorist act (attack), 150, 172, 175, 199, 201, 221–2, 277, 295 wages, vi, 26, 31, 42, 53, 71, 120, 127, Tilly, Charles, 187, 293 196, 257, 266 torn country, 155 Warsaw, 5, 102, 105, 286 trade war, 87, 90, 118, 150 Washington, xi, 1–2, 4–7, 9–10, 12, Transparency International, 73, 78 15, 40, 44, 93–5, 109, 111, 167, Trasianka, 144, 176, 183 169, 187–9, 271–2, 274–7, 285–6 trust Way, Lucan, 59, 280 between Belarus and the West, Western civilization, 16, 56 118, 172 Westernizers, 154–5 general (mutual trust), 17, 58, 61, western universalism, 15, 56 186–7 Westerwelle, Guido, 7, 105, 197, 294 in institutes, vi, 79, 80, 81, West-Rusism, 64, 66 136–7 white-red-white flag, 108, 132 in political parties, vi, 29, White, Stephen, x, xi, 68, 77–8, 80, 80, 85 95, 282 in president, 10, 72, 80, 84, 93, Wieck, Hans-Georg, 8–9 136–7, 269, 282–3 Wilson, Andrew, 14–15, 19, 66, 73, 95, in state/government, 59, 90 98, 270–3, 279, 281–2, 284–8 Tsyhankou, Vitaly, 153 World Bank, 13, 29–31, 41, 43, 96, TU-154 (aircraft), 220 180, 274–6, 285 Tucker, Robert, 178, 292 World Trade Organization (WTO), Turkmenistan, 26, 98, 100 38, 50 Tusk, Donald, 102–3 Yakubovich, Pavel, 161, 239, 245–6 Ukraine, vi, viii, 4, 10, 12, 14–15, Yanukovich, Victor, 163, 204 18–19, 21–2, 25–40, 47, 49, 52–5, Yeltsin, Boris, 26–7, 138–40, 154, 250 59–60, 68, 77, 78–80, 86, 98, 100, Yermoshina, Lidiya, 103, 142 102, 113, 117, 128, 141, 145, 149, young wolves, 128, 132, 135 156, 160, 173, 187, 195, 205–7, 210, 250–1, 267, 280, 288–9, 291, Zakharenko, Yury, 142–3, 238 295–6 Zarycki, Tomasz, 56, 279 union state, 25, 140, 185 Zawadsky, Dmitry, 142, 143 United States, 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 17, 23–4, Zhelnerovich, Galina, 121 31, 45, 48, 52, 58, 89, 93–6, 100, Zhirinovsky, Vladimir, 82, 180 104–5, 112, 116, 141, 146, 167, Zhvanetsky, Mikhail, 60, 61, 173 174, 176, 183, 187, 192, 270, Zisser, Yury, 67 272, 296 Zyuganov, Gennady, 139