Notes Introduction 1. Other American visitors included Margarita Assenova (Institute for New Democracies), Robert Berls (Nuclear Threat Initiative – NTI), Janusz Bugajski (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Ariel Cohen (Heritage Foun- dation), Vladimir Socor (Jamestown Foundation), Page Stoutland (NTI), and Stephen Woehrel (Congressional Research Service). 2. On June 2010, Russia voted for UN Security Council Resolution No. 1929, which adopted sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program. This followed a long period of Russia’s declining cooperation with the United States on Iran. 3. Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, “Causes and Consequences of Belarus’s Post-Election Violence”, 21 December 2010, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id= 42168, date accessed 28 January 2011. 4. Matthew Rojansky and Ambassador James F. Collins, “A Post-Election Agenda for Belarus,” 12 January 2011, Carnegie Endowment for Interna- tional Peace, http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42282, date accessed 28 January 2011. 5. Balazs Jarabik, Jana Kobzova and Andrew Wilson, The EU and Belarus After the Elections, London: European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2011, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/Belarus%20memo%20Jan%202011.pdf, date accessed 15 February 2014. 6. Vladimir Sokor, “Glavnoye – Pomeshat’ Rossii Proniknut’ v Belarus,” Delfi, 16 January 2011, http://ru.delfi.lt/archive/article.php?id=40887083, date accessed 28 January 2011. 7. Testimony of David J. Kramer, Executive Director of Freedom House before the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April 2011, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/kra040111.pdf, date accessed 20 April 2011. 8. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement before the United States House Commit- tee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April 2011, Serial No. 112–156, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/65497.pdf, date accessed 20 April 2011. 9. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement. 10. M. Matt Rojansky: Prepared Statement. 11. Rodger Potocki, “Enemies of Themselves,” Transitions Online, 6 December 2010, http://www.tol.org/client/article/22008-enemies-of-themselves.html, date accessed 15 February 2014. 270 Notes 271 12. Association Human Rights in Belarus, 2011 Strategy report on the situa- tion in Belarus with recommendations for action by the European Union and its members September 2011, http://www.human-rights-belarus.org/en/ articles/Strategyper cent20Paper-2011.html, date accessed 15 February 2014. 13. Arina Vetrova, “Ot Vika nado priatat spichki,” Belarus Segodnya, 29 October 2011, http://www.sb.by/print/post/122749/, date accessed 15 February 2014. 14. David Kramer, “Do’s and Don’t’s on Belarus,” 1 November 2011, Free- dom House, http://blog.freedomhouse.org/weblog/2011/11/dos-and-donts -on-belarus.html, date accessed 2 February 2014. 15. Yelena Daneiko, “Trudnaya missiya OBSE,” Novaya Europa, 18 January 2010, http://n-europe.eu/article/2010/01/18/trudnaya_missiya_obse, date accessed 19 February 2014. 16. “Kramer: V blizhaishee vremya zhdite novykh shagov SSHA otnositelno Belarusi,” Belorusskie Novosti, 6 November 2007, http://naviny.by/rubrics/ politic/2007/11/06/ic_articles_112_153785/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 17. Personal interview with Sergei Martynov, 26 July 2011. Date accessed 19 February 2014. 18. Yury Drakakhrust, “Kavalechek pernika,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 5 September 2008, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/1196637.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 19. Andrew Wilson, “Belarus After its Post-Georgia Elections,” European Coun- cil on Foreign Relations, 26 October 2008, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/ commentary_wilson_on_belarus/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 20. “20 Years of Belarus’s Independence: Current Challenges and Future Development”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., 26 October 2011; audio recording available at http://www .carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/26/20-years-of-belarus-s-independence -current-challenges-and-future-development/60zt, date accessed 19 February 2014. 21. This statement ought to be put into the context of the financial crisis experienced by Belarus since May 2011 and discussed in Chapter 1. 22. “20 Years.” 23. See endnote 21. 24. “20 Years.” 25. Ibid. 26. Ibid. 27. Mark Almond, “Less Bizarre than it Seems: The Landslide in Belarus Reflects its Demonized Leader’s Refusal to Back Market Fundamentalism,” The Guardian, 21 March 2006. 28. Ibid. 29. Ibid. 30. Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield 2008, p. 187. 31. IISEPS’ National survey 20 December 2010–2 January 2011, http://www .iiseps.org/. 32. Sam Greene, “Priroda Nepodvizhnosti Rossiiskogo Obschestva,” Pro et Contra, 15, 1–2, January–April 2011, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?lang= ru&fa=43949, date accessed 19 February 2014. 33. Ibid. 272 Notes 34. Valery Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenka: Politichesky Portret, Moscow: Partizan 2010, p. 83. 35. Ibid., p. 85. 36. Ibid., p. 90. 37. Ibid., p. 221. 38. Ibid. 39. Ibid., p. 289. 40. Ibid., p. 360. 41. Testimony of David J. Kramer, Executive Director of Freedom House before the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights and Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia “The Government of Belarus: Crushing Human Rights at Home?” 1 April, 2011, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/kra040111.pdf, date accessed 20 May 2011. 42. Andrew Wilson, Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship, London: Yale Univer- sity Press 2011. 43. Ibid., p. 253. 44. Ibid., pp. 75 and 115. 45. Ibid., p. 171. 46. Ibid., p. 257. 47. Ibid., p. 259. 48. Ibid. 49. Brian Bennett, The Last Dictatorship in Europe: Belarus under Lukashenko, New York: Columbia University Press 2011. 50. Ibid., p. 3. 51. Ibid., p. 2. 52. Ibid., p. 4. 53. Ibid., p. 271. 54. Ibid., p. 277. 55. Anais Marin, Sociological Study of the Composition of the Belarusian Soci- ety, Brussels: European Union 2012, p. 15, http://democraticbelarus.eu/files/ Sociological%20Study%20on%20Belarusian%20Society.pdf, date accessed 1 February 2012. 56. See, for example, Time, 178, 23, 12 December 2011, p. 44. 57. Allen Lynch, Vladimir Putin and Russian Statecraft, Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books 2011. 58. Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York: Simon and Shuster 1996, p. 310. 59. Perhaps the most unabashed and straight-arrow account of this view can be found in Michael McFaul, Advancing Democracy Abroad, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 2010. 60. Niall Ferguson, “Washington Proves the Communists Right,” Newsweek, 15 August 2011, p. 12. 61. Jeffrey Sachs, The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Pros- perity, New York: Random House 2011; reviewed in The Economist, 12–18 November 2011, p. 99. 62. Peter J. Boyer, “Congress is Getting Rich Off Wall Street and Peter Schweitzer Won’t Stop until Everyone Knows It,” Newsweek, 21 November 2011, pp. 32–36. Notes 273 63. James Kirchik, “Belarus, the Land of No Applause,” World Affairs Jour- nal, 11 November 2011, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/belarus -land-no-applause, date accessed 19 February 2014. 64. Andrew Wilson, “Lukashenka’s Game Is Up,” Current History, October 2011, pp. 277–282. 1 Belarusian Economy 1. Grigory Ioffe, “Understanding Belarus: Economy and Political Landscape,” Europe-Asia Studies, 2004, 56, 1, pp. 85–118; Grigory Ioffe, Understand- ing Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 2008. 2. Alexander Sinkevich, “Sumerki epokhi. Vyzov integratsii,” Belorusskie Novosti, 15 July 2012, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/2012/07/15/ic _articles_410_178470/, date accessed 19 February 2014. 3. Brett Forrest, “The Skype Killers of Belarus,” Businessweek, 23 August 2012, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-08-23/the-skype-killers -of-belarus, date accessed 19 February 2014. 4. Ibid. 5. Ibid. 6. Alexander Martynau, “An IT Solution to Belarusian Economic Malaise,” Belarus Digest, 12 December 2013, belarusdigest.com/story/it-solution -belarusian-economic-malaise-16366. 7. This section was first published in Grigory Ioffe and Viachaslau Yarashevich, “Debating Belarus: An Economy in Comparative Perspective,” Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2011, 52, 6, pp. 750–779. 8. Gennadiy Kosarev, “Pochemu Belorusy ne khotyat obyedinatysya s Rossiyey,” Solidarnost, 20 August 2011, http://www.gazetaby.com/index .php?sn_nid=38732&sn_cat=35, date accessed 21 August 2012. 9. Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark, p. 114. 10. Vitali Silitski, “Motherland Is Not for Sale? Belarusians’ Attitudes toward Geopolitical Alternatives: Suspicion and Mercenary Motives,” BISS BLITZ, #04/2010, 27 October 2010, http://www.belinstitute.eu/images/doc-pdf/ bb042010en.pdf, date accessed 1 November 2010. 11. Yuriy Drakakhrust, “Belarus, Rossiya, Ukraina: Estafeta avtoritarizma,” Belarusian Service of Radio Liberty, 22 August 2011, http://www.svaboda.org/ content/transcript/24304775.html, date accessed 19 February 2014. 12. Roy Medvedev, “Ekonomika sodruzhestva: Na raznykh skorostyakh i po raznym dorogam,” Ekonomicheskiye Strategii,