PoliciesPolicies forfor thethe CreationCreation ofof aa SafeSafe andand

SecureSecure SocietySociety inin thethe LightLight ofof IncreasingIncreasing

NaturalNatural DisastersDisasters aroundaround thethe WorldWorld

by Masanori HAMADA Waseda University, Tokyo,

1 Natural Disasters in the World during Recent 5 Years (2003～） The number of events with more than 1000 Death Toll: 14 Death toll: 635,507

2003 Iran・Bam EQ. 2005 North of Pakistan EQ. and （43,200） （74,651） Storm and Flood

2004 Caribbean Sea Hurricane （3,000） 2003 North of Algeria EQ. 2008 Wenchuan EQ. （2,266） （87,419） 2004 Haiti Flood（2,665） 2005 Hurricane Katrina（2,541）

2005 Hurricane 2005 India, Flood and Wilma（1,597） （ ） Landslide 1,503 2008 Myanmar Cyclone （133,655）

2006 Middle of Java Island EQ. （44,300）

2004 Sumatra EQ. and Tsunami （ ） 229,866 2004 India and Bangladesh, Flood（2,000） 2005 India and Bangladesh, Storm （4,049） 2 Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters in the world in Recent 5 Years (2003~)

2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) (M=7.6, Dead:75,000)Dead:75,000)

2008 Wenchuan Earthquake 3 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) EarthquakeEarthquake DisastersDisasters inin JapanJapan inin RecentRecent 55 YearsYears (2003~)(2003~)

2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1)

2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, 2008 Iwate‐Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) Dead:15Dead:15)) 4

StormStorm andand FloodFlood DisastersDisasters inin TheThe WorldWorld inin RecentRecent 55 YearsYears (2003~)

Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123)

Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198) 5 DamagingDamaging EarthquakesEarthquakes andand TsunamisTsunamis inin thethe WorldWorld duringduring LastLast 6060 YearsYears (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll)

8 Asia America 7 Europe Others 6 5 EVENTS 4 OF 3 2

NUMBER 1 0 1946～ 51～ 56～ 61～ 66～ 71～ 76～ 81～ 86～ 91～ 96～ 2001～

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 6 NumberNumber ofof EarthquakesEarthquakes withwith MagnitudesMagnitudes moremore thanthan 77 andand 66 duringduring LastLast 6060 YearsYears

180 900 ） ） 160 above M7.0 800 140 above M6.0 700 M6.0 M7.0

120 600 100 （above （above 500 80 400 Events Events 60 300 of of

40 200 20 100 Number Number 0 0 1946～ 51 ～ 56 ～ 61 ～ 66 ～ 71 ～ 76 ～ 81 ～ 86 ～ 91 ～ 96 ～ 01 ～ 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 50 55 60 7 DamagingDamaging StormsStorms andand FloodsFloods inin thethe WorldWorld duringduring 6060 YearsYears (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll) 14

12 Asia America Europe Others 10

Events 8 of 6

4 Number 2

0 1946～ 51～ 56～ 61～ 66～ 71～ 76～ 81～ 86～ 91～ 96～ 2001～

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 8 TemperatureTemperature ChangeChange ofof AirAir andand SeaSea WaterWater inin thethe WorldWorld duringduring LastLast 4040 YearsYears 0.4 0.3 0.5℃ Rise 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2

Temperature -0.3

Change（℃） -0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 (a) Air Temperature 0.4 0.3 0.3℃ Rise 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2

Temperature -0.3 Change（℃） -0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 (b) Sea Water Temperature 9

ChangeChange ofof MeanMean TemperatureTemperature andand RainRain FallsFalls inin JapanJapan （（19761976～～20042004）） 1.5 （a） Mean Temperature in Japan 0.7℃ Rise 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Change of Mean Change of Mean Temp.（℃） 1976 81 86 91 96 2001

1.5 (b) Mean Temperature in Tokyo 1.0℃ Rise 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Change of Mean Change of Mean Temp.（℃） 1976 81 86 91 96 2001 12 (c) Number of Heavy Rains with 100mm/hour 10 8 6 4 Number 2 0 1976 81 86 91 96 2001 （Japan Meteorological Agency）10 RegionalRegional RatioRatio ofof TheThe NumbersNumbers ofof NaturalNatural DisastersDisasters (1986~)(1986~) (Events with more than 1000 death toll)

Europe ％ Others 5％ 5 ％ （ ） （3） Europe 4 42,300 （3） Others America America 20％ 6％ 1％ （11） （62,392） （6,866）

Asia Asia 71％ 89％ （42） （915,453）

Number of Events : 59 Number of Death : 1,027,011 11 IncreaseIncrease ofof NaturalNatural DisastersDisasters duedue toto thethe ChangesChanges ofof NaturalNatural andand SocialSocial EnvironmentsEnvironments Increase of Hazards due to Change Change of Natural Environment of Natural Environment ・Global Warming ・Heavy Rain and Snow ・Heat Island of Urbanized Area ・Huge Typhoon , Hurricane and ・Deforestation Cyclone ・Desertification ・Drought ・ ・Erosion by River and Seashore High Temperature ・High Wave and Storm Surge Change of Social Environment ・Congestion of Urban Area ・Depopulation of Rural Area Scale and frequency of natural ・Human Habitation on Fragile Ground disasters are increasing. ・Lack of Cooperation and Communication among Societies ・Measures against unexpected ・Budget Deficit of Central and Rural natural phenomena and external Governments forces largely exceeding design level ・Poverty and Low Governance ・Implementation of both software and hardware measures 12 MeasuresMeasures againstagainst HugeHuge NaturalNatural DisastersDisasters withwith LowLow ProbabilityProbability NaturalNatural DisasterDisaster MitigationMitigation byby CombinationCombination ofof HardwareHardware andand SoftwareSoftware MeasuresMeasures

Moderates Disasters with Huge Disasters with Medium Probability Low Probability

Reinforcement of Hardware Measures

Software Measures Hardware Measures External Forces

13 RequestRequest forfor AdvisoryAdvisory fromfrom MinisterMinister ofof Land,Land, InfrastructureInfrastructure andand TransportTransport toto SCJSCJ PresidentPresident －－ PoliciesPolicies onon InfrastructureInfrastructure DevelopmentDevelopment forfor DisasterDisaster MitigationMitigation underunder GlobalGlobal IncreaseIncrease ofof NaturalNatural HazardsHazards andand VulnerabilityVulnerability ofof SocialSocial CircumstancesCircumstances －－ Subjects:Subjects: 1.1. ForecastForecast ofof futurefuture naturalnatural hazardshazards resultingresulting fromfrom thethe changeschanges ofof global global environments.environments. 2.2. EvaluationEvaluation ofof hazardshazards inin nationalnational landland‐‐useuse andand socialsocial structures,structures, andand evaluationevaluation ofof vulnerabilityvulnerability ofof existingexisting infrastructures.infrastructures. 3.Proposals3.Proposals ofof basicbasic policiespolicies andand measuresmeasures forfor improvementimprovement ofof nationalnational landland ‐‐utilizationutilization planplan andand forfor developmentdevelopment ofof infrastructures.infrastructures. 14 PoliciesPolicies andand MeasuresMeasures RecommendedRecommended byby SCJSCJ PresidentPresident （１）（１） (1)(1) ParadigmParadigm shiftshift fromfrom shortshort‐‐periodperiod viewview ofof efficiencyefficiency ofof economicseconomics toto longlong‐‐termterm viewview ofof creationcreation ofof safesafe andand securesecure societysociety (2)(2) StableStable andand longlong‐‐termterm taxtax spendingspending forfor measuresmeasures ofof improvementimprovement ofof landland‐‐utilizationutilization andand socialsocial systems,systems, andand reinforcementreinforcement ofof infrastructuresinfrastructures (3)(3) ReformsReforms ofof thethe nationalnational landland‐‐utilizationutilization planplan byby decentralizationdecentralization ofof populationpopulation andand properties,properties, particularly,particularly, byby establishmentestablishment ofof backback‐‐upup systemssystems toto securesecure thethe capitalcapital functionfunction ofof TokyoTokyo (4)(4) ImprovementImprovement ofof bothboth softwaresoftware andand hardwarehardware measuresmeasures againstagainst hugehuge naturalnatural disastersdisasters withwith lowlow probabilityprobability ofof

occurrenceoccurrence 15 PoliciesPolicies andand MeasuresMeasures RecommendedRecommended byby SCJSCJ PresidentPresident （２）（２）

(5)(5) UnifiedUnified andand synthesizedsynthesized policiespolicies amongamong ministries,ministries, governmentalgovernmental officesoffices andand concernedconcerned authoritiesauthorities (6)(6) CreationCreation ofof disasterdisaster‐‐awarenessawareness societysociety byby educationeducation ofof peoplepeople andand byby transfertransfer ofof knowledgeknowledge andand experiencesexperiences ofof pastpast disastersdisasters toto nextnext generationsgenerations (7)(7) EncouragementEncouragement ofof NPONPO andand NGONGO’’ss activitiesactivities forfor naturalnatural disasterdisaster preparedness,preparedness, andand forfor rescuerescue andand recoveryrecovery operationoperation (8)(8) InternationalInternational cooperationcooperation andand assistanceassistance inin developingdeveloping countriescountries underunder thethe considerationconsideration ofof thethe characteristicscharacteristics ofof disasters,disasters, culturescultures andand historieshistories

16 NPONPO：：EngineersEngineers withoutwithout Borders,Borders, JapanJapan

Public Sectors (1)Technical Supports ・Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Restoration and ・JICA, JBIC and others Reconstruction to the Affected Area Support (2)Education on Support Japan Society Natural Disaster Japan Society NPO Mitigation ofof Civil Civil Engineers Engineers NPO EngineersEngineers withoutwithout (3)Transfer of Borders , Japan Technologies and ArchitecturalArchitectural Borders , Japan Institute of Japan Knowledge for Institute of Japan Joining Support Natural Disaster Mitigation Senior volunteer Senior volunteer PrivatePrivate Sectors Sectors EngineersEngineers ・・ConstructionConstruction Companies Companies ・・ConstructionConstruction Consultants Consultants 17 International Cooperation and Assistance for Natural Disaster Mitigation Jointly by EWOB,J and Engineering Societies (JSCE and AIJ)

Technical training of local engineers on soil survey

Education on natural disaster mitigation

Construction of monuments on the Recommendations on policies for tsunami height and education reconstruction and disaster mitigation 18 to the president of Indonesia and governors International Cooperation and Assistances on Natural Disaster Mitigation (2) Jointly by 7 Academic Societies (JSCE, AIJ, JGS, JAEE, SSJ,CPIJ,AJG) (in Sichuan of China)

Seminar on reconstruction Proposal of retrofitting of Damaged Building a damaged building

Support for establishment of a research center for Technical discussions on earthquake disaster mitigation in Sichuan 19 Restoration of slope failure National Movement for Natural Disaster Mitigation by Public Works, Community Cooperation and Individual Efforts Public Works Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Resistance ・National strategy ・Reinforcement of Infrastructures ・Rescue and Firefighting ・Restoration and Reconstruction, etc.

・Central Governments ・Prefectural and Municipal ・Civic Organizations Government ・Companies ・Public Organizations ・School ・Citizens ・NPO,NGO ・Families

Community Cooperation Individual Efforts Construction of Community with High To make Home and Family Natural Disaster Resistance Natural Disaster Resistance ・ ・ ・Planning regional measures Retrofitting of Houses ・Education and Training ・Fixing of Furniture ・Firefighting and rescue ・Education ・Care of Refugees, etc. ・Stock of Water and Food 20 ParticipationParticipation ofof SCJSCJ andand SocietiesSocieties ofof ScientistScientist andand EngineersEngineers toto thethe NationalNational MovementMovement Public Works Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Resistance ・National strategy ・Reinforcement of Infrastructures ・Rescue and Firefighting ・Restoration and Reconstruction, etc.

・Recommendations on ・Request for Advisory Policies

Science Council of Japan

Societies and Associations ・Seminar and for Engineers and Scientists ・Education of Children and parents Symposium on (JSCE, AIJ etc.) Technical Assistances ・Technical Advices

Community Cooperation Individual Efforts Construction of Community with High Natural Disaster Natural Disaster Resistance Resistant Home and Family ・Planning regional measures ・Retrofitting of Houses ・Education and Training ・Fixing of Furniture ・Firefighting and rescue ・Education ・Care of Refugees, etc. ・Stock of Water and Food 21