4 Executive Summary

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 Figure 2: Trends in Seasonal Rainfall Performance and NDVI for Key Cropping and Pastoral Areas

Cummulative Rainfall Cummulative Rain Gauge Estimates (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Data (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Togdheer Pastoral (Savannah)

Saanag Pastoral (Savannah) Sectors Source: NOAA Source: FAO-SWALIM 15 Pastoral (Open Shrubs) Galgadud Pastoral (Herbaceous) Nugal Pastoral (Savannah)

Hiran Agropastoral (Rainfed) Agropastoral (Rainfed) Riverine (Irrigated)

Lower Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bay Agropastoral (Rainfed) Agropastoral (Rainfed)

*The CNDVI minimum represents the lowest value of NDVI recorded since 1999 Source: FSNAU Climate Data Update, Jan 2011

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 22 Sectors

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 future. in areas these in / +/ and re-exports are predominant and food trade, aid. imports in exports reality, cross-border Sheet Balance Cereal Map 7: Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Cereal 2010/11 Local Deyr 7:Map Somalia L. Juba L. Belet Xawo Belet .Jb L. Shabelle M. Juba GARBAHAREY Gedo 005 0 5 200 150 100 50 0 50 ! DJIBOUTI 25 ! ! Woq. Galbeed Woq. KISMAAYO Awdal Afmadow Doolow !. ! Baar-Dheere ! !. ! ! Saakow !. ! | Bu'aale Kismayo Luuq ^_ ± Kilometers Jamaame ! between Somalia, Ethiopia Ethiopia Somalia, between ! Diinsor Qansax Dheere !< ETHIOPIA !. Bay Borama !< !< !. ! Ceel Barde Gebiley Baydhaba !. ! Bakol ^_ Xudur !. ! Hargeysa Hiran Oodweyne ^_ Togdheer ! ay low o gl ye Ta BELET WEYNE BELET Qoryooley | !. ! | Beled Weyne Beled Merka ! Banadir Berbera !. ! ^_ M. Shabelle | ^_ !. Mogadishu ! !. ! ! Burco Buulobarde Jowhar Jalalaqsi ! | Warsheikh Gulf of Aden of Gulf ! ! Aden Yabaal !. | \ 3=>/< :;/< supply estimated \ are use seed for and waste consumption. loses, as such utilization other and exports/re-exports all Third, Second, up. summed are aid the difference 351,000MT of cereals based on the following calculations. 01233 Cadale ! Galcad | | !. ! Sool !. ! !. ! Laascanood Ceerigaab Galkacyo Galgadud Xarardheere o LEGEND Sanag Cereal Markets Cereal Cereal Flow Pattern ^_ < ! Mudug !. ! !. ! Garowe Hobyo | BOSSASO River International Boundary Boundary Regional District Boundary Coastline Road Major CapitalRegional Local Maize Local Sorghum Major Maize Market Maize Major Major Sorghum market | ! !. Bossaso Indian Ocean Indian Nugal Bari 24 Sectors

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 Bari and Nugal), widespread water trucking is ongoing is trucking water widespread Nugal), and Bari of Somalia northern (eastof part Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, \ \ failure. In most areas pastoral of waterthe country trucking country as water sources ( sources water as country the of areas pastoral most in shortages water critical are HUC: Bari region in the Northeast, as well as localizedQG areas of OG sites of Hawd Pastoral, Golis/Guban Pastoral, agropastoral in areas with moderate precipitation suchas mostgrazing < normal below largely to pursuant Somalia of Water and Pasture / H/ \ are households region, Togdheer for except Northwest, /0//1>G=> >2G:2 Somalia. across 122:G1232/ F almost is cattle the regions central In Northwest. the in as well as regions, Juba in particularly Somalia, southern in / Somalia;locatedinsouthern predominantly arethreeonly 323@ C323@ etc. haywater selling, and // / £\ @=A2B \3@3@ /== 0\ /£ Background SECTOR 3.4 LIVESTOCK

berkads , streams, shallow wells, Deyr . There rains. E B osmto. oe pastoralis Some consumption. // areas with dried pasture, far from water sources, and now Deeh G of waterdepletion and pasture. As a result, the in-migrated / ]F j1232 ` / /0 and pastoral the of most in water and pasture of Scarcity Migration Livestock and 2010. wells; December since ongoing water trucking shallow the of most and catchments drum water dried to 16,600SoSh/200ltr (from ¢2;=2222<122¢32 regions Juba the in recorded :2 >3N\2¢32 these in drum) 75,000SoSh/200ltr – (34,000 prices water the since Map 8:Somalia,RangelandConditionsandLivestock L WAQ 004 010160 120 80 40 0 40 ADHADHE ! 20 BELET XAWA DJIBOUTI ! Kilometers ± GARBAHAREY ! ! ! ! DOLO !. LUUQ BARDERA QANSAH DERE Migration, January2011 ! ! !. !. ! BORAMA KISMAAYO ! JAMAME ! JILIB Hagaa DINSOR ! ! Rab Dhuure !. ! WAJID GEBILEY ! ZEYLAC ! ! !. ! ! !. ! LUGHAYE ! HUDUR !. ! BRAVA BUR HAKABA BUR ! QORYOLEY KURTUNWAAREY ! BERBERA season. Therefore, yearly increase of increase yearly Therefore, season. ! ! !. ! ! OWDWEINE ! AFGOYE ! !. ! Mahaday BELET WEYNE BELET "/ ! BALAD JALALAQSI !. !. DUSAMAREB ! ! ! JOWHAR ADAN YABAL ADAN EL BUR ADADO ! ! ! ADALE !. ! ! ! ! ERIGABO GOLDOGOB ts from Northern regions Northern from ts ! EL DER ! ! !. !. !. GALKAYO LAS ANOD LAS ! HUDUN ! ! Water Availability Livestock Migration Pasture Availability LASQORAY ! ! !. ! HOBYO GAROWE GARDO Normal Pasture Very Poor Water Below Normal Pasture Below Normal Very Pasture Poor Normal Water Below Normal Water Normal Opportunistic Migration Opportunistic Normal Abnorrmal Migration Abnorrmal ! ! !. BOSSASO ! KANDALA ! ! ! ALULA BANDAR BEYLA BANDAR ! Map 9: Somalia Nutrition Situation, July 2010 Map 10: Somalia Nutrition Situation, January 2011

Calula BOSSASO !. (! Qandala Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye ERIGABO AWDAL !. Baki (! Iskushuban Borama Berbera SANAG BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI !. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo Gebiley HARGEYSA !. ! BURAO ! !.(! Qardho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Caynabo Talex TOGDHEER Burco SOOL Laas Caanood Garowe !.LAS ANOD !!.GAROWE

Eyl NUGAL Burtinle

Jariiban Goldogob Galkacyo !!.GALKAYO

Cadaado Cabudwaaq Hobyo DUSAMAREB !. Dhusa Mareeb GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Harardheere Ceel Barde Beled!. Weyne BAKOOL Ceel Bur Rab- Xudur Dhuure !.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere Dolo Luuq Wajid Bulo Barde Aden Yabal

GARBAHAREY Baydhaba Tayeglow Nutrition Situation !. Jalalaqsi Cadale Garbaharey BAIDOA Beled Hawa !. ^ Acceptable Qansax JowharM. SHABELLE Dheere Wanle Weyne !.JOWHAR Alert GEDO BAY Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Serious

Dinsor Afgoye Sectors Baardheere (! /" BANADIR MOGADISHU Qoryoley Critical Sakow Marka!. Kurtun Warrey Very Critical M. JUBA BU'AALESablale !. L. SHABELLE Bu'aale Brava Likely Serious L. JUBA 33 Afmadow Jilib Likely Critical Likely Very Critical Jamaame KISMAAYO ^ Hot Spot for Critical Kismayo (!. IDP Phase Serious Badhadhe Critical

Projected Trend (July - December 2010) Very Critical Potential to Improve The Nutrition Situation is analysed using a range of nutrition indicators from direct and indirect sources from April to Uncertain July '10: nutritional surveys, health facility data, rapid MUAC assesments, selective feeding centre data, health reports Potential to Deteriorate and others

Figure 24: Median Rates, GAM and SAM (WHO GS) Figure 25: Median Rates, Stunting, WHO GS, July -Dec. 2010 (Deyr 2010/11) Median Rates Jul-Dec. 2010 (Deyr’10/11)

30.0 25.0

22 25.7 20.5 25.0 19.7 19.7 20.0

GAM SAM Total Stunting Severe Stunting 20.0 15.0 14.5 13.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 13.8 12.6 10.0 9.4 10.3 10.7

10.0 Proportion Stunted 7.0 7.3

Proportion Acutely Malnourished 6.0 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.4 5.0 4.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 1.6 1.5

0.0 0.0 ALL (including IDPs Only All Excluding NW NE Central (Hawd, South ALL (including IDPs Only All Excluding NW NE Central South IDPs) IDPs Addun) IDPs) IDPs (Haws&Addun)

Considerations for the Nutrition Outlook for the next 6 months The projected trend of the nutrition situation in the coming three months (Jilaal 2011 season) shows a likely deterioration meta analysis of the last three years by season, Gu and from the Serious phase, across all the population groups Deyr as they present both good and bad years in most in central regions, and sustained Very Critical phases in / most of the south. This is due to the deteriorating household outcome. Maps 3 and 4 below illustrate that in the Gu season food security associated with the effects of the failed Deyr the situation is likely to deteriorate to Critical rains and the harsh Jilaal conditions being faced, in addition OQ to continued displacements and limited humanitarian regions and remain at Very Critical and Critical in the South. /H O/ and parts of Bay and Bakool regions due to water shortages to SeriousOQ are also likely, which may also exacerbate the precarious yet remain CriticalVery Critical in the South. situation. In the northern regions, the situation is also likely Therefore for programming purposes response agencies / of milk due to the extended dry season. Therefore to adjust base priorities only on the current estimates map (Map 2). /

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 44 Regional Analysis

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 4.2 SOMALIA’S CRISIS FOOD SECURITY RURAL who suffered from in agropastoral and riverine livelihoods of South and Central, both farmers as well as pastoralists. About 515,000 people as a result of the effects of failed post the since increased and 355,000 in one million rural people in Somalia, with 650,000 in security analysis indicates an acute humanitarian crisis for post The #

0306090120150 Why Who Depth 15 Confidence Frequency Magnitude Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Risk) High (Includes Phase in Population 0-100,000 Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs Past in Crisis of Recurrence Causes Underlying Key * Criteria for Social Targeting Social for Criteria Confidence Level of Analysis C B A Key Immediate Causes Immediate Key iii ii i Defining Attributes of Crisis of Attributes Defining i h g f e d c b a Low Social Marginalization Environmental Degradation Post State Conflict State Post Areasor3,Phase 5 in 4 Gender Wealth group Rural: Livelihood system ± Water Shortages Inflation Population Influx Disease Outbreaks Disruptions Market Civil Insecurity sn mi Tsuna Floods Drought Kilometers Deyr -100% -0% in respective phase respective in Percent population Mod/High a, d, e, i e, d, a, * A, B,C i, ii,iii 101,000-500,000 * 50,000 001 lvlho bsd nertd food integrated based livelihood 2010/11

KENYA HE Medium Ceel Waq Badhadhe Deyr L. JUBA L. (Map 8) Baardheere -0% -100% Afmadow *

GEDO Beled Hawa Sakow M. JUBA M. Kismayo 2010 harvest failure comprise the >500,000 Gu High Dolo Garbaharey . . ! The number of people in crisis 2010 by 28 percent primarily percent 28 by 2010 GARBAHAREY . ! . ! BU'AALE Rural: Qansax Qansax KISMAAYO Jamaame Dheere Dinsor Bu'aale Luuq Deyr a, d, e, f, i f, e, d, a, Mod/High A, B,C i, ii,iii Jilib Rural: * Borama 105,000 105,000 Dhuure AWDAL a, d, e, f, h, i h, f, e, d, a, Zeylac Rab- Moderate . ! A, B,C i, ii,iii Wajid BORAMA * rains, which affected Sablale BAY 125,000 Gebiley Kurtun Warrey Kurtun Baydhaba Xudur . Lughaye ! Brava Bur Hakaba Bur BAIDOA Ceel Barde BAKOOL . L. SHABELLE L. Baki ! -0% -100% HUDUR Hargeysa . ! HARGEYSA Qoryoley Rural: -100% -0% W. GALBEED W. Marka Wanle Weyne Wanle * A, B,C i, ii,iii a, i a, . Low !

Tayeglow Owdweyne Afgoye $% TOGDHEER Beled Weyne HIIRAN 33,000 Bulo Barde . ! Sheikh Berbera BELET WEYNE Jalalaqsi Jowhar . ! Balcad . ! Burco JOWHAR BANADIR BURAO -100% -0% M. SHABELLE M. Cabudwaaq Rural: Cadale of ruralpopulationincrisisamongtheregionsSomalia. density highest the is which population, rural total region’s the of percent 75 comprises This 195,000. to equivalent crises in population rural the of number largest the has Hiran regions, By prices. livestock decreased and assets the severe water crisis, depleted pasture, reduced livestock number of pastoralists (435,000) have also been affected by \ Aden Yabal a, d, e, f, g, i g, f, e, d, a, Caynabo Dhusa Mareeb Dhusa Buuhoodle Ceel Afweyne . ! Mod/High i, ii,iii DUSAMAREB A, B,C * 95,000 Ceel Dheere GALGADUD Ceel Bur Cadaado Goldogob Rural: SOOL Xudun . Laas Caanood Laas ! . ! . ! LA ERIGABO -0% Ceerigaabo Medium -100% GALKAYO * A, B,C a, i a, i, ii,iii Harardheere S ANOD S SANAG Galkacyo 37,000 MUDUG Hobyo Projected Trend Projected Phase Worsening of Risk Phase or Imminent Current Burtinle NOTES: For category explanations see http://www.fsnau.org see explanations category For Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, UNDP,1998, Admin.layers: FSAU,2007, DataSource: Datum: WGS84, Las Qoray/ Rural: Badhan a, d, h,e, f, i g, Talex . ! No Change Moderate Risk Moderate Watch High Risk High Improving Situation NUGAL -100% -0% GAROWE 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 5 Famine/Humanitarian 1A Secure Generally Food 1B Generally Food Secure Food 1B Generally 3 Acute Food andLivelihood Crisis 2 Borderline Food Insecure Food 2 Borderline Mod/High 4 Humanitarian Emergency 4 Humanitarian Garowe * * A, B,C 195,000 Jariiban i, ii,iii Bossaaso . ! BOSSASO Qardho Updated: Nov, 2007 Updated: Nov, Eyl

. . -100% -0% Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase in shift Jan -Jun2011 Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate lines Black magnitude only Qandala BARI Rural: a, d, e, g, h, i Mod/High Bandar BeylaBandar * Rural: Iskushuban i, ii,iii A, B,C 300,000 300,000 Worsening Situation Mixed Situation Mixed a, h, d, i g, A, B,C i, ii,iii * Mod Calula 65,000 -100% -0% -100 -0% % 5.2 TIME-SERIES OF THE INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS (IPC) MAPS FOR SOMALIA 2005 – 2011 >13G0\0PC‚C122>N1233

Rural IPC, Post Deyr ‘05/06 Rural IPC, Post Gu ‘06

Rural IPC, Post Deyr ‘06/07 Rural IPC Post Gu ‘07

Rural IPC, Post Deyr ‘07/08 Rural IPC, Post Deyr ‘07/08 updated April ‘08 Appendices

87

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 88 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 >13G0\0PC‚C122>N1233

KENYA Ceel Waq Badhadhe Ceel Waq Badhadhe GEDO L. JUBA L. Baardheere L. JUBA L. Baardheere Beled Afmadow Afmadow Sakow M. JUBA

Kismayo H GEDO BU'AALE a

M. JUBA Be Sakow w Kismayo

a Dolo led Hawa Garbaharey . ! Garbaharey Dolo GARBAHAREY . ! . ! . ! Qansax BU'AALE Jamaame Dheere BORAMA KISMAAYO Dinsor Bu'aale . ! Luuq . ! Qansax Qansax Jamaame Dheere Bu'aale Dinsor Luuq KISMAAYO Rural IPC,Post Dhuure Jilib BORAMA Borama Rab- Rural IPC,Post Rural IPC,Post . ! AWDAL Zeylac Jilib Borama AWDAL Dhuure Zeylac Wajid Rab- Sablale Kurtun Warrey Kurtun . ! Gebiley Wajid Sablale BAY Baydhaba . ! Kurtun WarreyKurtun Gebiley Xudur Baydhaba Lughaye BAY BAIDOA Brava Bur Hakaba Ceel Barde Lughaye . ! Xudur BAKOOL Bur Hakaba W. GALBEED . ! Brava L. SHABELLE Ceel Barde Baki L. SHABELLE HUDUR . ! BAKOOL BAIDOA Hargeysa HUDUR Baki . ! HARGEYSA Hargeysa Qoryoley . ! Qoryoley HARGEYSA Marka W. GALBEED W. Wanle Weyne . ! Wanle Weyne Wanle Tayeglow Marka Owdweyne Owdweyne Afgoye TOGDHEER . ! Beled Weyne

Tayeglow TOGDHEER Afgoye Beled Weyne Beled . ! HIIRAN Bulo Barde BELET WEYNE Sheikh Berbera Bulo Barde Bulo Jalalaqsi . ! Jowhar . ! Sheikh . ! Berbera Jalalaqsi Balcad JOWHAR Jowhar BURAO Burco BANADIR Balcad . ! BANADIR . ! HIIRAN Burco M. SHABELLE JOWHAR M. SHABELLE BURAO Cabudwaaq Cabudwaaq Cadale Aden Yabal Aden . ! Cadale Caynabo Dhusa Mareeb Ceel Afweyne Aden Yabal Aden Buuhoodle DUSAMAREB Dhusa Mareeb Dhusa Ceel Afweyne Caynabo Buuhoodle . ! Ceel Dheere GALGADUD Ceel Bur Ceel Dheere GALGADUD Goldogob Cadaado Ceel Bur Cadaado Goldogob . ! . ! . ! SOOL Xudun Laas Caanood Gu LAS ANOD LAS ERIGABO ERIGABO Laas Caanood Laas GALKAYO SOOL Gu Xudun Gu ‘ . ! . ! Ceerigaabo Ceerigaabo . ! Harardheere LA Galkacyo SANAG Harardheere GALKAYO SANAG Galkacyo MUDUG Hobyo S ANOD MUDUG Hobyo Burtinle ‘08 Las Qoray/ Las . ! Badhan Burtinle Las Qoray/ Talex ‘10 GAROWE Badhan NUGAL Garowe Talex 09 . ! NUGAL Jariiban Garowe GAROWE Jariiban . ! Bossaaso BOSSASO Bossaaso Qardho . ! Eyl Qardho BOSSASO Eyl Qandala BARI Qandala BARI Bandar Beyla Iskushuban Ba Iskushuban ndar Beyla Calula Calula

KENYA Ceel Waq Badhadhe L. JUBA L. Baardheere

Afmadow B eled Sakow GEDO

Kismayo H M. JUBA awa Dolo Rural IPC,Post Garbaharey . ! Rural IPC,Post GARBAHAREY . ! . ! Rural IPC,Post BU'AALE Qansax Qansax Jamaame Dheere KISMAAYO Bu'aale Dinsor Luuq Jilib Dhuure Borama Rab- . ! Zeylac AWDAL BORAMA Wajid Sablale BAY Kurtun Warrey Gebiley Baydhaba . ! Xudur Lughaye Brava Bur Hakaba BAIDOA Ceel Barde . ! Baki BAKOOL L. SHABELLE HUDUR . ! Hargeysa HARGEYSA Qoryoley Marka W. GALBEED W. Wanle Weyne

. ! Tayeglow Owdweyne Afgoye Beled Weyne TOGDHEER HIIRAN . ! Bulo Barde Bulo BELET WEYNE Sheikh Berbera Jalalaqsi Jowhar . ! . ! Balcad JOWHAR BURAO Burco BANADIR M. SHABELLE Cabudwaaq Cadale Aden Yabal . ! Caynabo Dhusa Mareeb Ceel Afweyne Buuhoodle DUSAMAREB Deyr Ceel Dheere GALGADUD Ceel Bur Deyr Goldogob Cadaado Deyr ’ . ! . ! Xudun . ! SOOL Laas Caanood Laas LAS ANOD LAS ERIGABO GALKAYO Ceerigaabo Harardheere Galkacyo SANAG Hobyo MUDUG ‘08/09 ‘10/11 Burtinle Las Qoray/ Las Badhan . ! Talex GAROWE NUGAL Garowe 09/10 Jariiban . ! Bossaaso BOSSASO Qardho Eyl Qandala BARI Bandar Beyla Bandar Iskushuban Calula >11G0\0PCC122:N1233 Combined IPC, Post Gu ‘08 Combined IPC, Post Deyr ‘08/09

Combined IPC, Post Gu ‘09 Combined IPC, Post Deyr ’09/10

Combined IPC, Post Gu ‘10 Combined IPC, Post Deyr ‘10/11 Appendices

89

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 90 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 5.3 PROGRESSION OF HUMANITARIAN SITUATION HUMANITARIAN OF FROM 5.3 PROGRESSION ‚\U„O >=3Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Gedo Region from from Region Gedo Situation, >=3Progression Humanitarian ofRural einTmln Timeline Region elWa 5470000 1,000 1,000 4,000 0 9,000 1,000 1,000 0 5,000 44,000 9,000 1,000 10,000 11,000 0 2,000 0 0 9,000 1,000 0 27,000 5,000 0 48,027 0 9,000 247,076 4,000 20,821 15,437 42,392 80,628 39,771 SUB-TOTAL Luuq Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo Doolow Ceel Waaq Belet Xaawo Baardheere Gedo - Affected Districts -Affected Gedo Livelihood Zones Affected and Region Gedo aaPsoa 1641,0 7000 27,000 0 17,000 81,654 Dawa Pastoral Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastor otenIln atrl7,2 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 4,000 75,828 31,236 InlandSouthern Pastoral Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine otenAr-atrl3,5 ,0 ,0 ,0 4,000 6,000 2,000 6,000 31,751 Southern Agro-Pastoral OA FETDPPLTO NAL E2,0 48,000 29,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED Gedo Projection) Estimates) Jan - June -June Jan OA FETDPPLTO NAL E2,0 48,000 29,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED 2011(Deyr July- Dec Dec July- (Gu 2010 2010 (Gu 10-11 10-11 2010 Rural IPC, Current or Imminent Phase to AFLC Risk High only Elwak SIP Elwak, 50% Garbaharee) and Bardera 100% affected; Pop districts: Southern Garbaharey 50% Luuq, and Xaawo Belet affected; 100% Dolow, Pop districts: Northern to AFLC Risk High only Elwak SIP Elwak, 50% Garbaharee) and Bardera 100% affected; Pop districts: Southern Garbaharey 50% Luuq, and Xaawo Belet affected; 100% Dolow, Pop districts: Northern 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1AGenerally Secure Food 3 LivelihoodFoodAcute and Crisis 2 Borderline Food Insecure 1B GenerallySecure Food 4 Humanitarian Emergency al Gu U-OA 4,7 7002004,0 4,000 44,000 2,000 27,000 247,076 SUB-TOTAL

’10 UNDP 2005 Rural Population Estimated Population in Livelihood Zones Pastoral

S.I. %0 0P5% %0 %0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50%P 50%P 0% 0% % %0 %0 %0 %0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Risk of Worsening Phase Projected TrendProjected 50%P 75%P 75%P 0% 0% 0% 25% 25% 0% 0% P 0% 0% 75%P 75%P 50%P No Change 667009000 9,000 0 0 26,607 Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk Moderate High Risk Pastoral 75%-P Dawa Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Phase HE Zones Livelihood PHASE AFLC

(AFLC) . . Riverine 0P5% %0 %50% P 0% 0% 0% 50%P 50%P Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate Black lines magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase shift J.P./ Irr. Rural IPC, Worsening Situation Worsening Livelihood Crisis Mixed Situation Agropast Acute Food and and Food Acute Central U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 S./ Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE (AFLC) Agropast GU Deyr BB LP Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Humanitarian Emergency U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 ‘10 TO ’10/11 (HE) HP/ Gedo Gedo HP/ Agropast Gu AP HP Bay Humanitarian ¢32 Emergency DEYR (HE) Pastoral S.I. Deyr ‘10/11 Livelihood Crisis ¢32<33 Pastoral Acute Food and and Food Acute Dawa Livelihood zones Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Acute Food and and Food Acute Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, c goats, & sheep Cowpea, regions Agro-Pastoral: Central Potential Bay Agro-pastoralHigh Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential Potential Low Agro-pastoral Bay-Bakool Awdal border & coastal towns: Petty trading, fishing, salt Addun Pastoral: Mixed sheep & goats, camel Riverine Livelihood Zones (AFLC) J.P./ Irr. Central Agropa S./ Agropast Humanitarian Humanitarian Emergency Emergency BB LP (HE) (HE) HP/ Gedo Gedo HP/ Agropast AP HP Bay m a 5.3.2 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Lower and Regions from Gu ‘10 To Deyr ‘10/11 Rural IPC, Gu ’10 Rural IPC, Deyr ’10/11 Livelihood Zones

Current or Imminent Phase Risk of Worsening Phase 1A Generally Food Secure . Watch Coloured diagonal lines indicate 1B Generally Food Secure shift in Phase Moderate Risk .Black lines indicate worsening 2 Borderline Food Insecure High Risk magnitude only 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Projected Trend 4 Humanitarian Emergency Improving Situation Worsening Situation 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe No Change Mixed Situation

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Rural GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Middle Juba Bu’aale 45,901 0 7,000 8,000 9,000 Jilib 83,464 5,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 Saakow/Salagle 54,773 4,000 6,000 10,000 8,000 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000 Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 0 0 7,000 3,000 Badhaadhe 32,828 0 0 7,000 2,000 Jamaame 106,734 6,000 14,000 12,000 17,000 Kismaayo 77,334 0 0 9,000 6,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000 GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Population in Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 4,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 0 0 2,000 1,000 South-East Pastoral 18,232 0 0 4,000 1,000 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 0 0 12,000 4,000 Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 5,000 18,000 9,000 18,000 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 0 0 14,000 7,000 South-East Pastoral 38,810 0 0 9,000 3,000 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 0 0 3,000 1,000 Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 6,000 14,000 9,000 17,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000 Appendices GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000 91 ‚\U„O AFLC PHASE HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Region Timeline J.P./ S./ L. Juba L.Shabelle J.P./ S./ L. Juba L.Shabelle S.I. S.E. S.I. S.E. Irr. Central Agro Irr & r-fed Irr. Central Agro Irr & r-fed Past Past Past Past Riverine Agropast past Agropast Riverine Agropa past Agropast Jan - June Juba Riverine: Sakow 0% 75%P 50%M 75%P 75%P 0% 0% 25% P 100%P 25% P 25%P 0% 2011 (Deyr Juba Juba Riverine: Jilib & Jamame 0% 75%P 50%M 75% P 75%P 0% 0% 25% P 100%P 25% P 25%P 0% 10-11 Juba Riverine: Buale 0% 75%P 25%M 75% P 75%P 0% 0% 25% P 100%P 25% P 25%P 0% Projection) All other districts 0% 75%P 50%M 75% P 75%P 0% 0% 25% P 100%P 25% P 25%P 0% July-Dec Juba Riverine: Sakow 0% 0% 50%M 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%P 0% 2010(Gu Juba Juba Riverine: Jilib & Jamame 0% 0% 25%M 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%P 0% 2010 Juba Riverine: Buale0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%P0% Estimates) All other districts 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 92 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 5.3.3 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Bakool Region from from Region Bakool Situation, Humanitarian Rural of 5.3.3 Progression ‚\U„O

Tyelw6,3 10002,0 1,000 24,000 1,000 12,000 0 1,000 21,000 11,000 64,832 31,319 Tayeeglow Rab Bakool Dhuure Bakool SBTTL29197,0 ,0 0005,000 90,000 4,000 78,000 249,189 SUB-TOTAL Affected Regions and District and Regions Affected Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Livelihood and Regions Affected einTimeline Region Bakool Rural IPC, uu 3992,0 8000 28,000 0 24,000 73,939 Xudur ajd5,5 80002,0 0 20,000 0 18,000 55,255 Waajid elBre2,4 ,0 ,0 ,0 3,000 6,000 3,000 4,000 23,844 Ceel Barde aolAr atrl16824,0 7000 47,000 0 46,000 116,812 Bakool Agro Pastoral otenIln at3,3 ,0 ,0 ,0 5,000 0 8,000 35,000 4,000 0 5,000 27,000 31,135 101,242 Inland Past Southern LP Bay-Bakool Agro-Past Jan - June 2011 10-11 -June (Deyr Jan Current or Imminent Phase July - December 2010 -December July (Gu 2010 Estimates) (Gu 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1AGenerally Secure Food 3 LivelihoodFoodAcute and Crisis 2 Borderline Food Insecure 1B GenerallySecure Food 4 Humanitarian Emergency Projection) U-OA 4,8 8004009,0 5,000 90,000 4,000 78,000 249,189 SUB-TOTAL rn oa 4,8 20095,000 82,000 249,189 Grand Total Gu ’10 rn oa 4,8 20095,000 82,000 249,189 Grand Total UNDP 2005 Rural Population ua:Aldsrcs5% 5 0%P2%P0 0% 0% 0% 0% P 25% P 100% 25%P 75% P 100%P 50%P 100%P districts All Rural: 75%P districts All Rural: or Districts Risk of Worsening Phase Projected TrendProjected Estimated Population in Livelihood Zones No Change Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk Moderate High Risk

. . Livelihood Crisis ..Psoa BArps PBklArPs S.I. Pastoral Bakol AgroPast BB Agropast LP S.I. Pastoral Acute Food and and Food Acute Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate Black lines magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase shift (AFLC) Rural IPC, Worsening Situation Worsening Mixed Situation Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE AFLC PHASE PHASE AFLC U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 (AFLC) Deyr Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Humanitarian U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 ’10/11 Emergency (HE Humanitarian Emergency Gu (HE ‘10 To Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Southern Inland Pastoral: Camel, Sheep &Goats Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential Potential BakoolLow Agro-pastoral Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential Deyr Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Zones (AFLC) ‘10/11 (AFLC) Livelihood Zones HE Phase Phase HE BB Agropast LP Humanitarian Humanitarian Emergency Emergency AgroPast (HE Bakol (HE 5.3.4 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Bay Region from Gu ‘10 to Deyr ‘10/11

Rural IPC, Gu ’10 Rural IPC, Deyr ’10/11 Livelihood Zones

Current or Imminent Phase Risk of Worsening Phase Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential 1A Generally Food Secure . Watch Coloured diagonal lines indicate 1B Generally Food Secure shift in Phase Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential Moderate Risk .Black lines indicate worsening 2 Borderline Food Insecure High Risk magnitude only Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Projected Trend Southern Inland Pastoral: Camel, Sheep & Goats 4 Humanitarian Emergency Improving Situation Worsening Situation 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe No Change Mixed Situation

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 Rural GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 247,670 0 0 2,000 0 Buur Hakaba 100,493 0 0 1,000 0 Diinsoor 63,615 0 0 2,000 0 Qansax Dheere 81,971 0 0 3,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 493,749 0 0 8,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 8,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Population GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone in Livelihood Zones Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE Bay Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral Low Potential 178,683 0 0 8,000 0 Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential 315,066 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 493,749 0 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 8,000

‚\U„O AFLC PHASE HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Bay Region Timeline BB S./ BB Bay or Districts Bakol Agropast S.I. S.E. Bakol Agropast Central Agropast Agropast AgroPast HP/ Pastoral Past AgroPast LP Agropa LP HP/AP HP AP HP

Jan - June Rural Pop Appendices 2011 (Deyr affected; 25% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10-11 Baidoa; 33.3% Projection) Burhakhaba 93 Bay Rural Pop July- Dec affected; 25% 2010 Baidoa 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2010

Estimates)

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 94 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36

Jwa/aaa 2,6 00003,0 0 5,000 36,000 22,000 0 0 30,000 9,000 222,167 105,266 Jowhar/Mahaday Balcad/Warsheikh SBTTL49004,0 ,0 00017,000 70,000 2,000 45,000 419,070 SUB-TOTAL M/ Shabelle M/ Shabelle 5.3.5 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Middle Shabelle Region from from Region Shabelle Middle Situation, Humanitarian Rural of 5.3.5 Progression ‚\U„O M. Shabelle Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Livelihood and Regions Affected einTimeline Region Affected Regions and District and Regions Affected OA FETDPPLTO NAL E4,0 87,000 47,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED OA FETDPPLTO NAL E4,0 87,000 47,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED Current or Imminent Phase Rural IPC, 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1AGenerally Secure Food 3 LivelihoodFoodAcute and Crisis 2 Borderline2 Insecure Food 1BSecure Generally Food 4 Humanitarian Emergency aae3,2 ,0 ,0 ,0 5,000 5,000 1,000 2,000 35,920 Cadale dnYba 5774001007007,000 7,000 1,000 4,000 55,717 Adan Yabaal (Gu 2010 Estimates) (Gu otenIln at7,4 000000 0 0 12,000 0 11,000 5,000 42,000 12,000 0 5,000 0 0 0 2,000 10,000 0 28,000 0 7,000 74,048 160,948 53,657 93,722 36,695 Inland Past Southern Agro-Past Southern Shabelle Riverine sheep Deeh: Coastal Central Agro-Past July - December -December July Jan - June 2011 -June Jan (Deyr 10-11 (Deyr Projection) 2010 Gu U-OA 1,7 5002007,0 17,000 70,000 2,000 45,000 419,070 SUB-TOTAL ’10 Agro-pastoral: Balcad Balcad Agro-pastoral: Agro-pastoral: Balcad Balcad Agro-pastoral: Risk ofWorsening Phase Risk Projected TrendProjected Agro-pastoral: Adan Agro-pastoral: Adan Agro-pastoral: Yabal & Cadale Yabal & Cadale No Change Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk High Risk UNDP 2005 Rural & Jowhar & Jowhar Districts Population Livelihood Zones Population in Estimated

. . Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate Black lines magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase Worsening Situation Mixed Situation Mixed Rural IPC, Pastoral Livelihood Crisis S.I. %0% 0% 0% Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute (AFLC) (AFLC) Livelihood Zones AFLC PHASE PHASE AFLC Irr. Riverine Deyr Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE 0P7% 0% 75%P 50%P J.P./ U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 5% 50%P 50%P U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 ’10/11 Humanitarian Emergency Humanitarian Emergency S./Central Agropast (HE) 0P0% 50%P 5P25%P 75%P (HE) Pastoral g S.I. Livelihood Crisis Gu Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Crisis Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats sheep Camel, pastoral: inland Southern sorghum cattle, Camel, Southern Agro-Pastoral: & vegetables Maize, fruits riverine: Shabelle cattle & sesame Maize,cowpeas, rain-fed: Shabelle M. & Agro-Pastoral L. & cattle Maize/Sorghum Irrigated: L. & M.Shabelle Agro-Pastoral Sheep Deeh: Coastal cattle camel, & goats, sheep Cowpea, regions Central Agro-Pastoral: Acute Food and and Food Acute ‘10 to Livelihood Zones (AFLC) (AFLC) Livelihood Zones Irr. Riverine HE Phase Phase HE Deyr J.P./ ‘10/11 Humanitarian Humanitarian Emergency Emergency (HE) S./Central (HE) Agropa 5.3.6 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Lower Shabelle Region from Gu ‘10 to Deyr ‘10/11

Rural IPC, Gu ’10 Rural IPC, Deyr ’10/11 Livelihood Zones

Current or Imminent Phase Risk of Worsening Phase 1A Generally Food Secure . L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral Irrigated: Maize/Sorghum & cattle Coloured diagonal lines indicate Watch L. & M. Shabelle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed: Maize,cowpeas, sesame & cattle 1B Generally Food Secure shift in Phase Moderate Risk .Black lines indicate worsening Shabelle riverine: Maize, fruits & vegetables magnitude only 2 Borderline Food Insecure High Risk South-East Pastoral: Cattle, sheep & goats Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel, cattle, sorghum 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Projected Trend Southern coastal pastoral: Goats, cattle 4 Humanitarian Emergency Improving Situation Worsening Situation Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe No Change Mixed Situation Urban

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Rural GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) L/ Shabelle Afgooye/Aw Dheegle 178,605 0 0 0 0 Baraawe 42,239 0 0 0 0 Kurtunwaarey 48,019 0 0 0 0 Marka129,039000 0 Qoryooley 111,364 0 0 0 0 Sablaale 35,044 0 0 0 0 Wanla Weyn 133,627 0 0 9,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 677,937 0 0 9,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 9,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Population in Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) L/ Shabelle Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 2,534 0 0 0 0 L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr 372,273 0 0 0 0 Shabelle Riverine 115,552 0 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 6,884 0 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Past 106,902 0 0 9,000 0 Southern Inland Past 73,793 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 677,937 0 0 9,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 9,000

‚\U„O

AFLC PHASE HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Appendices Region Timeline S./ L.Shabelle Shabelle S./ S.I. Shabelle Irr. S.I. L.Shabelle Central Irr & r-fed Irr. Central Pastoral Riverine Pastoral Irr & r-fed Agropast Agropast Riverine Agropat 95 Merka, Qoryole, & Kurtunwarey Riverine 0% 0% Jan - June Sablale Riverine 0% 0% 2011 (Deyr Agro-pastoral: Wanla Weyne, Parts of 10-11 25%P 0% 0% Projection) Afgoye, & Qoryole L. All districts Southern Inland Pastoral 0% 0% Shabelle July - Merka, Qoryole, & Kurtunwarey Riverine 0% 0% December Sablale Riverine 0% 0% 2010 Agro-pastoral: Wanla Weyne 50% only 0% 0% (Gu 2010 Estimates) All districts Southern Inland Pastoral 0% 0%

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 96 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 ‚\U„O id(ad atrl2,6 ,0 ,0 ,0 3,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 25,760 (Hawd) Pastoral ia ieie3,3 90040025,000 12,000 4,000 85,000 17,000 38,000 29,000 8,000 85,000 0 7,000 38,000 32,633 61,511 136,727 Inland Past Southern Hiran riverine Hiran Agro-Past ee an/aaan15502,0 9003,0 69,000 30,000 69,000 26,000 135,580 Belet Wayne/Matabaan ettt atrlss407040004,000 0 4,000 0 4,067 Destitute Pastoralists uoBroMxa 8631,0 5002,0 45,000 23,000 45,000 16,000 88,673 Bulo Burto/Maxaas aaas 6456001,0 00015,000 10,000 15,000 6,000 36,445 Jalalaqsi 5.3.7 Progression of the Rural Humanitarian Situation, Hiran Region from Hiraan Region District Affected Hiraan Region and Affected einTimeline Region Hiran OA FETDPPLTO NAL E1700192,000 177,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED Livelihood Zone July- Dec 2010 Dec July- 2011 (Deyr 10- 2011 (Deyr 11 Projection) Estimates) Jan - June -June Jan (Gu 2010 (Gu Rural IPC, Current or Imminent Phase OA FETDPPLTO I FC&H 7,0 192,000 177,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED SBTTL20684,0 2,0 300129,000 63,000 129,000 48,000 260,698 SUB-TOTAL 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1AGenerally Secure Food 3 LivelihoodFoodAcute and Crisis 2 Borderline2 Insecure Food 1B GenerallySecure Food 4 Humanitarian Emergency

U-OA 6,9 80019006,0 129,000 63,000 129,000 48,000 260,698 SUB-TOTAL l itit 0 5 0 %0 0P25%P 50%P 0% 0% M 50% 75% P P 50% Districts All All Districts All Districts Areas or or Areas Gu ’10 Estimated Population in UNDP 2005 Rural Population Livelihood Zones Pastoral 50%M 25%P 25%P S.I. Risk ofWorsening Phase Risk Projected TrendProjected No Change 50%P Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk High Risk Pastoral (Hawd) Ciid Livelihood Zones AFLC PHASE PHASE AFLC Agro-Past

. . 0M2% 0% 25%M 50%M Hiran Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate lines Black magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase shift Rural IPC, Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Worsening Situation Mixed Situation Mixed Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Riverine (AFLC) Hiran (AFLC) Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr pastoralists Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 Destitute U21 Deyr 2010/11 GU 2010 ’10/11 Humanitarian Emergency Humanitarian 75%P Emergency Pastoral (HE Gu S.I. (HE ‘10 To To ‘10 Pastoral (Hawd) 50%P Ciid Deyr Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats & sheep Camel, pastoral: inland Southern vegetables & fruits Maize, riverine: Shabelle shoats & cattle maize, Sorghum, riverine: Hiran Hiran Agro-Pastoral &goats sheep Camel, Pastoral: Hawd cattle camel, goats, & sheep Cowpea, regions Central Agro-Pastoral: Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Crisis Livelihood Zones Acute Food and and Food Acute ‘10/11 (AFLC) Livelihood Zones Agro-Past HE Phase Phase HE 100%P 100%P 100%P 100%P 50%M 50%M Hiran (AFLC) Hiran Riv Hiran 100%M 100%P 100%P 100%P 100%P 75%M Humanitarian Emergency Humanitarian Emergency 100%0 (HE pastoralists Destitute (HE 100% 5.3.8 Progression of the Rural Humanitarian Situation, Central Regions from Gu ‘10 To Deyr ‘10/11

Rural IPC, Gu ’10 Rural IPC, Deyr ’10/11 Livelihood Zones

Current or Imminent Phase Risk of Worsening Phase Addun Pastoral: Mixed sheep & goats, camel 1A Generally Food Secure . Watch Coloured diagonal lines indicate Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle 1B Generally Food Secure shift in Phase Moderate Risk .Black lines indicate worsening Coastal Deeh: Sheep 2 Borderline Food Insecure High Risk magnitude only Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Projected Trend Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats 4 Humanitarian Emergency Improving Situation Worsening Situation 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe No Change Mixed Situation

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 UNDP 2005 Rural Affected Regions and District Acute Food and Acute Food Population Humanitarian Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis and Livelihood Emergency (HE) Emergency (HE) (AFLC) Crisis(AFLC) Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 32,654 9,000 8,000 8,000 5,000 Cadaado 36,304 12,000 8,000 9,000 7,000 Ceel Buur 66,274 36,000 12,000 27,000 15,000 Ceel Dheer 61,407 24,000 5,000 26,000 16,000 Dhuusamarreeb 74,441 40,000 15,000 26,000 15,000 SUB-TOTAL 271,080 121,000 48,000 96,000 58,000 South Mudug Gaalkacyo 24,860 9,000 4,000 6,000 4,000 Hobyo 54,438 25,000 8,000 19,000 13,000 Xarardheere 52,157 23,000 6,000 20,000 12,000 SUB-TOTAL 131,455 57,000 18,000 45,000 29,000 GRAND TOTAL 402,535 178,000 66,000 141,000 87,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 244,000 228,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 2010 Deyr 2010/11 Estimated Population in Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Galgaduud Addun pastoral 123,218 79,000 17,000 48,000 17,000 Central Agro-Past 60,944 33,000 8,000 34,000 15,000 Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 41,030 5,000 5,000 8,000 3,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 21,671 3,000 0 4,000 4,000 Southern Inland Past 7,453 1,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 Destitute pastoralists 16,764 0 17,000 0 18,000 SUB-TOTAL 271,080 121,000 48,000 96,000 58,000 South Mudug Addun pastoral 41,823 34,000 7,000 21,000 7,000 Central Agro-Past 31,750 17,000 4,000 17,000 8,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 29,257 4,000 0 5,000 6,000 Hawd Pastoral 16,243 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 Destitute pastoralists 12,382 0 5,000 0 7,000 Sub-Total 131,455 57,000 18,000 45,000 29,000 GRAND TOTAL 402,535 178,000 66,000 141,000 87,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 244,000 228,000

‚\U„O Appendices AFLC PHASE HE Phase Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Region Timeline Ciid Agropast Southern Ciid Agropast Southern 97 Districts Destitute Addun Coast Destitute Addun Coast (Hawd) Togdheer/ Inland (Hawd) Togdheer/ Inland past Past. Deeh past Past. Deeh Past. Central Past. Past. Central Past. Jan -June 2011 50% P 25% P 50% (Deyr 2011 Rural Population 75% P 0% 100% M 50% M 25% P 100% 100% P 75% P 100% P 50% M 50% M P Projection) Galgadud July-December 50% P 50% P 50% 2010 (Gu 2010 Rural Population 50% P 0% 100% 50% P 50% P 50% P 100% 50% P 50% P 0% 75% M P Estimates) M South Mudug: Pop Jan -June 2011 affected- 30% 50% P (Deyr 2011 75% P 0% 100%M 50%M 25% P 100% 50% 100%P 100%P Galkayo, 100% 50% M Projection) P Hobyo & Haradheere S. Mudug June- December South Mudug: Pop 50% P 2010 affected- 30% 50% P 50% 50% P 0% 100% 50% P 50% P 100% 50% P 0% (Gu 2010 Galkayo, 100% 75% M P M Estimates) Hobyo & Haradheere

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 98 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 5.3.9 Progression of Rural HumanitarianSituation,NERegionsfrom 5.3.9 ProgressionofRural osa eh he 704001002,000 4,000 1,000 8,000 0 6,000 0 5,000 0 25,000 43,178 0 7,014 26,000 Hawd Pastoral sheep Deeh: Coastal 85,474 East Golis Pastoral Zones Livelihood -Affected Regions NE ettt atrlss ,7 ,0 1,000 0 0 0 7,000 4,000 1,000 1,000 0 13,000 1,000 0 0 0 1,000 0 0 3,000 3,000 8,000 22,000 9,000 7,000 7,000 3,000 0 2,000 0 2,000 8,000 1,000 40,000 1,476 30,000 0 0 0 4,211 0 2,000 0 3,000 124,467 7,000 64,969 8,000 7,126 0 5,259 0 1,000 30,000 Destitute pastoralists 4,211 Pastoral Plateau Sool-Sanag camel Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, 28,539 48,233 Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 46,886 7,699 Nugaal 32,793 Regional Total Hawd Pastoral Destitute pastoralists Coastal Deeh: sheep Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel NorthMudug Sool pastoral; camel&shoats &goats sheep pastoral: Kakaar Gagaab Pastoral Coastal Deeh: sheep Bari adgb3,6 ,0 ,0 ,0 4,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 2,000 6,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 5,000 1,000 16,000 0 4,000 3,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 5,000 15,000 2,000 33,366 3,000 3,000 0 16,000 0 24,596 Eyl 25,259 Burtinle 26,005 Nugaal 32,866 Jariiban Galdogob 0 15,000 Bossaso 57,725 Bandarbayla 8,976 Bari alay 8072,0 1002,0 9000 22,000 22,000 0 11,000 1,000 1,000 40,000 20,000 7,000 7,000 8,000 124,239 58,007 0 0 0 7,000 Sub-total 5,000 8,000 Gaalkacyo NorthMudug Qandala 26,902 Iskushuban 36,519 Caluula 27,002 adoDnGry 4,1 ,0 0 3,000 0 0 45,613 GorayoQardho/Dan NE Regions - Affected Districts -Affected Regions NE

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED

Rural IPC,

Current or Imminent Phase

OA FETDPPLTO NAL E1300129,000 113,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1A Generally Food Secure Food 1AGenerally 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Livelihood and Food 3 Acute 1B Generally FoodSecure 2Borderline Insecure Food GRAND TOTAL GRAND 4 Humanitarian Emergency u-oa 5808008001,0 8,000 14,000 8,000 8,000 75,860 Sub-total u-oa 0,3 50004,0 3,000 41,000 0 35,000 202,737 Sub-total Gu GRAND TOTAL GRAND ’10 u-oa 5808008001,0 8,000 14,000 8,000 3,000 8,000 41,000 75,860 0 Sub-total 35,000 202,737 Sub-total

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Livelihood Zones Estimated Population in 0,3 3003,0 90030,000 99,000 30,000 83,000 402,836 Risk of Worsening Phase Projected Trend 0,3 3003,0 90030,000 99,000 30,000 83,000 402,836 571002000 2.000 0 0 15,771 No Change Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk Moderate High Risk

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Acute Food and and Food Acute . . Rural IPC, Black lines indicate worsening Black indicate lines worsening magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate shift in Phase shift Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Worsening Situation Mixed Situation (AFLC) Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE u21 Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2010 1,0 129,000 113,000 Deyr Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

u21 Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2010 ’10/11 Emergency (HE) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Gu Humanitarian ‘10 To Deyr

Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute

‘10/11 Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Livelihood Zones (AFLC) 40019,000 44,000 (AFLC) 40019,000 44,000

Emergency (HE)

Humanitarian Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

100 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 5.3.10 Progression of Rural HumanitarianSituation,NorthwestRegionsfrom 5.3.10 ProgressionofRural eie 3770000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53,717 137,513 18,683 22,801 22,094 16,923 132,695 Hargeysa Gebiley Berbera Galbeed Woqooyi Zeylac Lughaye Borama Baki Awdal WAr-at ogu,ctl 7,5 0 0 0 0 76,159 Sorghum, cattle NW Agro-past: Awdal uc 9,4 2000 12,000 0 0 191,748 Burco Togdheer ihn ,4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,149 74,592 Pastoral Golis Fishing uhol 881002000 2,000 0 0 28,821 Buuhoodle ua atrl 2620000 0 0 0 42,612 Guban Pastoral anb 406002000 0 0 2,000 4,000 1,000 11,000 0 0 6,000 2,000 5,000 14,000 0 3,000 0 1,000 0 11,000 3,000 0 1,000 12,000 24,026 0 83,748 53,638 27,400 76,902 30,924 Caynabo Sool Laasqoray/Badhan Ceerigaabo Ceel Afweyn Sanaag Sheikh Owdweyne asCaod5,0 ,0 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 1,000 0 1,000 1,000 0 15,528 20,983 50,606 Xudun Taleex Laas Caanood ihn ,3 0 0 0 0 1,437 Fishing Galbeed Woqooyi oi atrl6,5 0 0 0 0 67,455 Pastoral Golis adPsoa 0800000 0 0 0 70,830 Hawd Pastoral Wgops:Srhm ate7,9 0 0 0 0 70,191 Sorghum,NWAgro-past: cattle adPsoa 2,4 4000 14,000 0 0 0 0 0 223,347 0 23,698 Hawd Pastoral pastoral: camel Goats, Golis-Guban Togdheer oderAr-at ogu,ctl 9840000 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 0 19,864 11,984 Togdheer Sorghum, cattle Agro-past: &camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal ihn 5130000 0 0 0 0 4,000 3,000 0 0 0 15,193 3,000 0 30,415 37,396 &camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal &goats sheep pastoral: Kakaar Fishing Sanaag oaoZn eeals7020000 0 0 0 8,000 0 0 7,052 4,000 56,596 &Vegetables Zone Potato pastoral: camel Goats, Golis-Guban olSngPaeuPsoa 1379009001,0 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 61,347 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral ettt atrlss629060006,000 0 6,000 0 6,289 Destitute pastoralists ettt atrlss70010001,000 0 0 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 0 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 0 2,000 730 30,108 0 7,697 72,608 Destitute pastoralists Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel Hawd Pastoral Sool OA FETDPPLTO NAL E3,0 68,000 35,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED OA FETDPPLTO NAL E3,0 68,000 35,000 &HE AFLC IN POPULATION TOTAL AFFECTED NW Regions Affected Affected Regions NW NW Region Livelihood Affected Zones Current or Imminent Phase Districts Rural IPC, 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe 1A Generally Food Secure 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis 2Borderline Insecure Food 1B GenerallySecure Food 4 Humanitarian Emergency RN OA ,0,5 8001,0 00018,000 50,000 17,000 18,000 1,008,750 GRAND TOTAl u-oa 9,1 0 0 0 0 194,513 Sub-total u-oa 0,1 0 0 0 0 209,913 Sub-total u-oa 7,9 6000 16,000 0 0 278,893 Sub-total u-oa 1,8 6001,0 50016,000 25,000 15,000 16,000 214,288 Sub-total u-oa 1,4 ,0 ,0 ,0 2,000 9,000 2,000 2,000 111,143 Sub-total Gu ’10 UNDP 2005 Rural RN OA ,0,5 8001,0 00018,000 50,000 17,000 18,000 1,008,750 GRAND TOTAL Population u-oa 9,1 0 0 0 0 194,513 Sub-total u-oa 0,1 0 0 0 0 209,913 Sub-total u-oa 7,9 6000 16,000 0 0 278,893 Sub-total u-oa 1,8 6001,0 50016,000 25,000 15,000 16,000 214,288 Sub-total u-oa 1,4 ,0 ,0 ,0 2,000 9,000 2,000 2,000 111,143 Sub-total Risk of Worsening Phase Projected Trend Projected No Change Improving Situation Improving Watch Moderate Risk Moderate High Risk Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Population in Estimated Acute Food and and Food Acute

. . Rural IPC, Black lines indicate worsening worsening indicate lines Black magnitude only Coloured diagonal lines indicate indicate lines diagonal Coloured shift in Phase shift Worsening Situation Worsening Mixed Situation Mixed GU Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute 10 ’10/11 (AFLC) Emergency (HE) Humanitarian Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE U1 Deyr 2010/11 GU 10 Emergency (HE) Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Gu Acute Food and and Food Acute ‘10 to Livelihood Zones Deyr Livelihood Crisis Acute Food and and Food Acute Deyr (AFLC) ‘10/11 2010/11 Emergency (HE) Humanitarian Humanitarian Emergency (HE) 142 Appendices

Issued March 4,2011 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI36 Map 20: Livelihood Zones of Somalia of Zones Livelihood 20: Map Ceel Waq The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & Di & regional The Nations. United the by acceptance or endorsement official imply not do maps these on names and boundaries The KENYA Badhadhe L. JUBA L. Baardheere GEDO Afmadow Beled Hawa Hagar Kismayo M. JUBA M. Sakow DJIBOUTI Dolo Garbaharey Qansax Dheere Qansax Jamaame Luuq Bu'aale Dinsor Rab-Dhuure P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is manag is FSNAU fax:254-20-4000555 254-20-4000000 tel: [email protected] Email: Kenya Nairobi, Market, Village 1230 Box P.O. Jilib Borama AWDAL Zeylac Gebiley Wajid Sablale Baydhaba BAY Kurtun Warrey Kurtun BAKOOL Lughaye Brava Bur Hakaba W. GALBEED Xudur Ceel Barde Baki Hargeysa L. SHABELLE Qoryoley Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit http://www.fsnau.org Somalia Unit - Analysis and FoodNutrition Security Tayeglow Wanle Weyne Wanle Marka Owdweyne and Cooperation SDC Swiss Agency for Development Development for Agency Swiss TOGDHEER Gulf of Aden Afgoye Beled Weyne Beled HIIRAN Bulo Barde Bulo Sheikh Berbera Jowhar Jalalaqsi / " Balcad Burco MOGADISHU BANADIR Cabudwaaq M. SHABELLE Cadale Aden Yabal Caynabo Buuhoodle Ceel Afweyne GALGADUD Dhusa Mareeb Dhusa Ceel Bur Ceel Dheere Ceel Cadaado strict boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. in Somalia of Republic the of Government the by endorsed those reflect boundaries strict Goldogob SOOL Laas Caanood Xudun Ceerigaabo SANAG Galkacyo Harardheere MUDUG Burtinle Hobyo Las Qora Las Talex NUGAL Livelihood zones Livelihood Garowe Datum: WGS84, Data Source: 2009, FSNAU, ed by FAO by ed Jariiban Fishing East GolisPastoral:Frankinncense Southern InlandPastoral:Camel,Sheep&Goats Bay Agro-pastoral HighPotential Bakool Agro-pastoral LowPotential Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral LowPotential camel,sheep West GolisPastoral:Goats, Urban Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: Sheep,goats&vegetables Southern coastalpastoral:Goats,cattle Southern Jubariverine:Maize,sesame,fruits&vegetables Southern Agro-Pastoral: Camel,cattle,sorghum South-East Pastoral:Cattle,sheep&goats Sool-Sanag PlateauPastoral:Camel,sheep&goats Shabelle riverine:Maize,fruits&vegetables Potato zone&vegetables Nugal Valley Sheep&camel Pastoral: North-West Valley shoats Agro-Pastoral: Irrigatedvegetables, North-West Sorghum,cattle Agro-Pastoral: Lower Juba Agro-Pastoral: Maize&cattle L. &M.Shabelle &cattle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed:Maize,cowpeas,sesame L. &M.Shabelle Agro-Pastoral Irrigated:Maize/Sorghum&cattle Kakaar-Dharor Pastoral:Sheep,goats,camel Juba pumpirrigation:Tobacco, onions,maize Hiran riverine:Sorghum,maize,cattle&shoats Hiran Agro-Pastoral Hawd Pastoral:Camel,sheep&goats Guban Pastoral:Sheep,goats&camel Dawo Pastoral:Shoats,cattle,camel Coastal Deeh:Sheep Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea,sheep&goats,camel,cattle Awdal towns:Pettytrading, fishing,saltmining border&coastal Addun Pastoral:Mixedsheep&goats,camel Gedo Agro-Pastoral HighPotential y/Badhan Admin. layers: 1998 UNDP, Bossaaso Qardho Eyl BARI Qandala Iskushuban Bandar Beyla Bandar Indian Ocean Calula