\ Executive Summary 4 FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 Figure 2: Trends in Seasonal Rainfall Performance and NDVI for Key Cropping and Pastoral Areas Cummulative Rainfall Cummulative Rain Gauge Estimates (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Data (mm) (Oct-Dec, 2010) Togdheer Pastoral (Savannah) Saanag Pastoral (Savannah) Sectors Source: NOAA Source: FAO-SWALIM 15 Gedo Pastoral (Open Shrubs) Galgadud Pastoral (Herbaceous) Nugal Pastoral (Savannah) Hiran Agropastoral (Rainfed) Middle Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Lower Shabelle Riverine (Irrigated) Lower Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bay Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bakool Agropastoral (Rainfed) *The CNDVI minimum represents the lowest value of NDVI recorded since 1999 Source: FSNAU Climate Data Update, Jan 2011 FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 Cereal Balance Sheet 01233 351,000MT of cereals based on the following calculations. aid are summed up. Second, all exports/re-exports and other utilization such as loses, waste and seed use are \ supply estimated for consumption. Third, the difference imports and food aid. in reality, cross-border trade, exports and re-exports are predominant between Somalia, Ethiopia +/ :;/< / 3=>/< in these areas in future. \ Map 7: Somalia Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Gulf of Aden Sectors BOSSASO Bossaso |!. DJIBOUTI | | Sanag Ceerigaabo 22 !. Bari | Berbera Awdal ! Borama !. !< Gebiley Oodweyne !< Hargeysa !. Burco Woq. Galbeed ^_ !. Togdheer Sool Laascanood Garowe !. !. Nugal Galkacyo ETHIOPIA !. !. Hobyo Indian Ocean !| Hiran Ceel Barde ! BELET WEYNE!. Bakol Beled Weyne Xarardheere Mudug Doolow Xudur Galgadud ! !. Ta ye gl o w Galcad ! ! Buulobarde Belet Xawo Luuq ! Aden Yabaal ! ! ! Jalalaqsi GARBAHAREY !. ! Gedo !<!. Baydhaba Qansax Dheere M. ShabelleJowhar ! Cadale ^_!. !| Diinsor ! ! Warsheikh LEGEND Baar-Dheere Bay !| BanadirMogadishu Cereal Markets Qoryooley ^_| Merka Major Sorghum market M. JubaSaakow ^_ !. L. Shabelle <! ! | ^_ Major Maize Market Bu'aale !. Cereal Flow Pattern Local Sorghum Afmadow Local Maize ! Jamaame L. Juba ^_ !. Regional Capital KISMAAYO!.|Kismayo Major Road Coastline District Boundary ± Regional Boundary International Boundary 5025 0 50 100 150 200 River Kilometers FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 3.4 LIVESTOCK SECTOR Background /£ Map 8: Somalia, Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, January 2011 ALULA 0\ DJIBOUTI ! KANDALA ZEYLAC ! ! BOSSASO LASQORAY !. ! LUGHAYE ERIGABO /== ! !. BERBERA ! ! ! BORAMA \3@3@ !. ! ! GEBILEY ! !. GARDO BANDAR BEYLA OWDWEINE!. ! ! @=A2B ! HUDUN TALEH ! ! £\ ! LAS ANOD GAROWE !. !. / ! ! // ! ! GOLDOGOB ! GALKAYO water and hay selling, etc. !. ! ! ADADO !. C323@ HOBYO DUSAMAREB ! ! BELET WEYNE !. ! ! EL BUR Rab Dhuure Sectors ! DOLO HUDUR 323@ ! !. BELET XAWA ! ! LUUQ WAJID ! ADAN YABAL ! predominantly located in southern Somalia; only three are ! ! ! EL DER GARBAHAREY JALALAQSI !. ! !. Mahaday Weyn 24 QANSAH DERE ! ! BUR HAKABA JOWHAR EL WAQ ! ADALE ! !. ! ! DINSOR BARDERA ! BALAD / ! ! AFGOYE ! "/ QORYOLEY ! KURTUNWAAREY!. ! ! ! Water Availability !. BRAVA in southern Somalia, particularly in Juba regions, as well ! Very Poor Water ! JILIB Below Normal Water ! ! as in the Northwest. In central regions the cattle is almost Normal Water JAMAME ! Pasture Availability F !.KISMAAYO Very Poor Pasture 122:G1232/ BADHADHE Below Normal Pasture ! Normal Pasture across Somalia. Livestock Migration ± Normal Opportunistic Migration Abnorrmal Migration 4020 0 40 80 120 160 Kilometers >2G:2 //1>G=> since the Hagaa season. Therefore, yearly increase of /0 water prices (34,000 – 75,000SoSh/200ltr drum) in these >3N\2¢32 Northwest, except for Togdheer region, households are :2 \ recorded in the Juba regions (from 16,600SoSh/200ltr drum H/ ¢2;=2222<122¢32 / to dried water catchments and most of the shallow wells; and Pasture and Water water trucking ongoing since December 2010. of Somalia pursuant to largely below normal Deyr rains. Livestock Migration < Scarcity of pasture and water in most of the pastoral and in areas with moderate precipitation such as most grazing sites of Hawd Pastoral, Golis/Guban Pastoral, agropastoral /0 OG / ` QG Bari region in the Northeast, as well as localized areas of j1232 HUC:. There ]F / are critical water shortages in most pastoral areas of the depletion of water and pasture. As a result, the in-migrated country as water sources (berkads, streams, shallow wells, G failure. In most pastoral areas of the country water trucking \ Deeh \ areas with dried pasture, far from water sources, and now of northern Somalia (east part of Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, // Bari and Nugal), widespread water trucking is ongoing consumption. Some pastoralists from Northern regions FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 Map 9: Somalia Nutrition Situation, July 2010 Map 10: Somalia Nutrition Situation, January 2011 Calula BOSSASO !. (! Qandala Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye ERIGABO AWDAL !. Baki (! Iskushuban Borama Berbera SANAG BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI !. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo Gebiley HARGEYSA !. ! BURAO ! !.(! Qardho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Caynabo Talex TOGDHEER Burco SOOL Laas Caanood Garowe Buuhoodle !.LAS ANOD !!.GAROWE Eyl NUGAL Burtinle Jariiban Goldogob Galkacyo !!.GALKAYO Cadaado MUDUG Cabudwaaq Hobyo DUSAMAREB !. Dhusa Mareeb GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Harardheere Ceel Barde Beled!. Weyne BAKOOL Ceel Bur Rab- Xudur Dhuure !.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere Dolo Luuq Wajid Bulo Barde Aden Yabal GARBAHAREY Baydhaba Tayeglow Nutrition Situation !. Jalalaqsi Cadale Garbaharey BAIDOA Beled Hawa !. ^ Acceptable Qansax JowharM. SHABELLE Dheere Wanle Weyne !.JOWHAR Alert GEDO BAY Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Serious Dinsor Afgoye Sectors Baardheere (! /" BANADIR MOGADISHU Qoryoley Critical Sakow Marka!. Kurtun Warrey Very Critical M. JUBA BU'AALESablale !. L. SHABELLE Bu'aale Brava Likely Serious L. JUBA 33 Afmadow Jilib Likely Critical Likely Very Critical Jamaame KISMAAYO ^ Hot Spot for Critical Kismayo (!. IDP Phase Serious Badhadhe Critical Projected Trend (July - December 2010) Very Critical Potential to Improve The Nutrition Situation is analysed using a range of nutrition indicators from direct and indirect sources from April to Uncertain July '10: nutritional surveys, health facility data, rapid MUAC assesments, selective feeding centre data, health reports Potential to Deteriorate and others Figure 24: Median Rates, GAM and SAM (WHO GS) Figure 25: Median Rates, Stunting, WHO GS, July -Dec. 2010 (Deyr 2010/11) Median Rates Jul-Dec. 2010 (Deyr’10/11) 30.0 25.0 22 25.7 20.5 25.0 19.7 19.7 20.0 GAM SAM Total Stunting Severe Stunting 20.0 15.0 14.5 13.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 13.8 12.6 10.0 9.4 10.3 10.7 10.0 Proportion Stunted 7.0 7.3 Proportion Acutely Malnourished 6.0 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.4 5.0 4.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 1.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 ALL (including IDPs Only All Excluding NW NE Central (Hawd, South ALL (including IDPs Only All Excluding NW NE Central South IDPs) IDPs Addun) IDPs) IDPs (Haws&Addun) Considerations for the Nutrition Outlook for the next 6 months The projected trend of the nutrition situation in the coming three months (Jilaal 2011 season) shows a likely deterioration meta analysis of the last three years by season, Gu and from the Serious phase, across all the population groups Deyr as they present both good and bad years in most in central regions, and sustained Very Critical phases in / most of the south. This is due to the deteriorating household outcome. Maps 3 and 4 below illustrate that in the Gu season food security associated with the effects of the failed Deyr the situation is likely to deteriorate to Critical rains and the harsh Jilaal conditions being faced, in addition OQ to continued displacements and limited humanitarian regions and remain at Very Critical and Critical in the South. /H O/ and parts of Bay and Bakool regions due to water shortages to SeriousOQ are also likely, which may also exacerbate the precarious yet remain CriticalVery Critical in the South. situation. In the northern regions, the situation is also likely Therefore for programming purposes response agencies / of milk due to the extended dry season. Therefore to adjust base priorities only on the current estimates map (Map 2). / FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VI 36 Issued March 4, 2011 4.2 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY CRISIS \ The post Deyr 2010/11 livelihood based integrated food number of pastoralists (435,000) have also been affected by security analysis indicates an acute humanitarian crisis for the severe water crisis, depleted pasture, reduced livestock one million rural people in Somalia, with 650,000 in $% assets and decreased livestock prices. By regions, Hiran and 355,000 in HE (Map 8). The number of people in crisis has the largest number of the rural population in crises increased since the post Gu 2010 by 28 percent primarily equivalent to 195,000. This comprises 75 percent of the as a result of the effects of failed Deyr rains, which affected region’s total rural population, which is the highest density both farmers as well as pastoralists. About 515,000 people of rural population in crisis among the regions of Somalia. in agropastoral and riverine livelihoods of South and Central, who suffered from Deyr 2010 harvest failure comprise the #Jan - Jun 2011 -100% -100% Defining Attributes of Crisis 37,000 Rural: 33,000 Rural: Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 i, ii,