THE PICK 4 MATRIX by Frank R

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni

(follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also visit @OptixEQ)

1/17/19

NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks!

INTRO We cashed nicely last weekend when our B-B-A-A MATRIX combo connected for $537.30 on Sunday, giving us some nice bankroll to play with this week (which features five racing days due to Monday’s Martin Luther King, Jr., holiday)—so let’s get cracking! So…with the rainstorms we’ve had all week, it’s a good job that the racing office carded an all-dirt/all-sprint eight-race card for today. The Rainbow 6 (R3- R8) single-ticket jackpot carryover is at $883K, and the Late Pick 4 (R5-R9) offers some challenging races. Remember to check track conditions before taking the plunge…

LEG 1 (R5): We begin today’s all-dirt/all-sprint Late Pick 4 with an unreliable $12.5K/N2L condition-claimer for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track. I think it makes sense to go price-shopping here. #1 TIZ MI HAINA (12/1) loses her 5-pound weight-break today after dueling early and weakening late against much lesser foes at Los Al—two negatives. On the plus side, maybe she needed the race, since she was coming off a 266-day layoff. Expect Roman to hustle hard from the rail and hope for the best. GRADE: C. #2 MAJESTIC AUTHORITY (15/1) ran second at a similar level three back at Los Al, where she was inching toward the winner in that 5.5-furlong event. Unfortunately, her two races since then were pretty bad. She attended the pace and packed it in to lose by wide margins. She does have races that would make her a threat, but she’s tough to support off those two recent efforts. Plus, I can see her hooking up with a few others in here and weakening. GRADE: C. #3 DON’TEATMYCOOKIES (2/1) also has speed, so I’m sure Arias will have this one in the vanguard early, especially since this gal is dropping in from the starter-allowance ranks, where she ran half a race going a mile on turf. The class-drop makes her a legitimate contender, but I’m not sure the race shape favors her too much. GRADE: B. #4 MI PAJARITO (4/1) has been on the lead in her two last starts, including a race at today’s level, where she made the lead but was overtaken in the lane. I like that Periban legs up Figueroa for his 5-pound weight-break, but there is other speed in here, so this one will need to prove she can settle, otherwise she’s looking at the same result as last time. GRADE: C. #5 BLISSFUL LADY (20/1) has had plenty of tries at this level, so she’s tough to support on the win end—though she is making the third start of her form cycle, and if you go back a year, you’ll see that she ran second at this level and distance at 30/1 (if you want to use for your exotics). GRADE: C.

#6 LUCKY VAL (6/1) needs to break more sharply, but if she does, she should get a good tracking trip in a race where there is enough speed to flatter this one’s running style. She’s also dropping to the $12.5K level for the first time, making her a little interesting in here at 6/1. GRADE: A. #7 LONDON HOTEL (5/2) just broke her maiden for $20K, making a nice move from off the pace to win going away as the 4/5 favorite. She’ll have every chance to run them all down again today given the anticipated pace scenario, but do note that her win came at 6.5-furlongs, so shortening up today won’t help her cause—and she’s facing winners for the first time (albeit, not very good ones!). GRADE: B. #8 K P’S SMOKIN (5/1) should be running on through the lane, like she did last time when she finished fifth at this level and distance—but with a very wide journey. She’s eligible to improve today for a hot barn. GRADE: A.

LEG 2 (R6): Today’s second leg is a tried-and-true low level $30K maiden-claimer for 3-year-old fillies going 5.5- furlongs on the main track. #1 MISS LADY ANN (12/1) is a daughter of Munnings who is running for $30K—and that’s not a good sign. Carava hasn’t had many firsters the last few years, and he’s always been known as a guy who claims horses, so I’m okay watching one, especially since this is a young filly who has to break from the rail. On the plus side, you know Baze will send hard. GRADE: C. #2 RATHER NOSY (8/5) has run respectably against MSWs while sprinting on turf, so it’s odd that she shows up here for $30K—but I’ve seen Callaghan do this move before, and the fact that this one cost only $48K means she probably overachieved in the MSW ranks anyway. Rosario takes the call, and Callaghan is deadly with his droppers like this. GRADE: A. #3 SHARP IMAGE (12/1) doesn’t have much early speed, so she’ll need the race to fall apart for her to get the nod today, especially since she’s losing her 5-pound weight-break and shortening up in distance. Expect her on the scene late. GRADE: C. #4 WARRENSROLLINGDICE (20/1) has been beaten double-digits in each of her two career starts, but you can be encouraged by the fact that she showed speed last time while having to break from the rail. She gets off the rail today, so she can sit a better trip. Still, she’ll need a big step forward, even against these. GRADE: C. #5 REACHREACHREACH (4/1) was 8/5 at this level last time at Los Al, going 5.5-furlongs, but after bobbling at the start, she was pulled up early and taken out of the race. Toss that effort, and focus on the fact that Figueroa gets back on board, making this one a sneaky play in here. GRADE: A. #6 GLITTER GULCH (12/1) cost $2,100 back in 2016, so there aren’t too many expectations here. Vallejo is a very cagey trainer, but he hasn’t had too many debutantes. Franco’s presence is interesting, but there are some question marks here. GRADE: C. #7 GOODTINGSCOMINPINK (3/1) made a nice move in her debut while racing wide, but she flattened out a bit and was run down in the final stages of the race. She can certainly improve off that, especially since she’s making her second career start and shortening up in distance—but note that her good race came at Los Al, so she’ll need to show she can improve here. GRADE: B. #8 CURRYFORTHREE BANG (5/1) should appreciate the slight cutback after setting the pace last time and weakening in a 6-furlong event at Del Mar. Her speed will come in handy while breaking from out here, but her stamina has been sorely lacking, so she’ll need to do better than she’s shown. GRADE: C.

#9 A DIME FOR ME (4/1) has run two decent races, so she’ll have every chance to shine today, especially since she projects a good stalking trip. Pedroza will have to avoid a too-wide journey, however—like last time—but this one fits nicely in here if she can take a step forward against a serious class-dropper. GRADE: B. #10 YOUR ROYAL COIL (8/1) drops in from the Cal-bred $50K maiden ranks after running evenly in her debut, going 5.5-furlongs at Los Al. Surely, she can improve off that, but she’s looking at a wide journey from out here unless Maldonado can break alertly and get her to clear early. Still, she’ll have to deal with the serious class-dropper (and this one cost only $1,200 back in 2017). GRADE: C.

LEG 3 (R7): We stay on the main track for today’s seventh, an $80K optional-claiming/N1X for Cal-bred 3-year-old fillies going 6.5-furlongs. #1 HOTITUDE (8/5) dueled with Mucho Unusual two back but weakened to finish third going 7- furlongs. She then failed to carry her speed in the Soviet Problem last time, going a mile at Los Al, where she finished second. She’ll be fit off that race, and 6.5-furlongs should hit her right between the eyes, but she will have to face Mucho Unusual again. GRADE: B. #2 MUCHO UNUSUAL (6/5) dueled Hotitude into submission last time in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies, where she won the battle but lost the war. After carving out those fast splits with Hotitude, she was softened up late and ended up finishing second. She’s been freshened since then, and since she’s drawn outside Hotitude, she has the advantage again. GRADE: A. #3 TIZ A MASTER (4/1) has won two in a row, stalking and pouncing—a skill that will come in handy today, since the horses to her inside are going to be duking it out every step of the way. This one seems a cut below those two, but she’ll get the right trip, and the 5-pound weight-break surely can’t hurt. GRADE: B. #4 ALL TEA SHADE (5/1) comes from off the pace, so she’ll have her work cut out for her, but at least she’ll have the benefit of a speed duel in front of her. She’ll also be super-fit cutting back from a mile to today’s sprint—but note that she needed maiden-claimers to graduate, and Hotitude has her on form. GRADE: C. #5 TIME FOR SUZZIE (12/1) is exposed against the best in here, so she’s going to need to really step it up today against classier foes. She’s coming off a second-place finish against $20K claimers, where she was just kind of one-paced throughout—that won’t cut it against this kind of company. GRADE: X.

LEG 4 (R8): We close out today’s sequence with a low-level $20K maiden-claimer contested at 6-furlongs on the main track. #1 SPANISH BAY (5/2) has shown speed against MSWs, so that makes him dangerous today if he gets a clean break from the rail. He’s also adding Lasix for the first time, so that’s a plus. The downside is: Mandella is happy to give up on this son of Tapit after just three starts, so clearly there is still an issue here after a year-plus layoff and one comeback race. Buyer beware. GRADE: B. #2 SILVER BADGE (20/1) was 156/1 in his debut and then 63/1 in start number-two at Los Al, where he ran half a race. GRADE: X. #3 BLESS HIS HEART (5/1) has speed but removes the hood today in what should be a peak effort, cutting back from a mile race where he popped and stopped. Toss the race before where he

caught a wet-fast/sealed track and botched the start at Del Mar, and his form looks much brighter. GRADE: A. #4 CASUAL REPLY (20/1) debuts for an outfit that doesn’t win a lot of races, so I’m okay watching this 4-year-old debut runner. GRADE: X. #5 JIMMY THE BULL (30/1) dropped to the $16K maiden level last time and never made an impact at 42/1—that doesn’t bode well for his chances here. GRADE: X. #6 PASTORELLI (5/1) doesn’t have much early speed, but he should get a decent clip to close into. He was 7/2 at this level last time, and something went wrong, so we’ll see if he shows up today. He hasn’t been able to string together races, so there’s a hole here, but if he runs to his race two back, he could contend for a slice. GRADE: C. #7 MOON JUICE (6/1) has a good tracking style for this race, and he’s eminently usable in your exotics, but he’s had plenty of chances at this level and hasn’t been able to break through. He’s obvious but unexciting. GRADE: B. #8 SHANGHAI BILLY (7/2) had to break from the rail last time against tougher company, so it’s no surprise he ran half a race. He gets off the rail today and gets some class relief, so that must be considered, but he’s nothing special at 7/2 on the line. GRADE: B. #9 VICTOR’S SHOW (6/1) was 2/1 at this level two back at Los Al and finished second, so it’s no surprise that his backers bailed on him last time when he was 9/1 here at Santa Anita, going 7-furlongs. He’ll appreciate today’s shorter distance, and it’s interesting to see Bejarano take the call, but he’s a 5- year-old ridgling who has only three starts to his name. GRADE: C. #10 PIG IRON (12/1) adds blinkers after showing tactical speed against Cal-bred MSWs. He gets class relief today, and he should get a good tracking trip in here—but he hasn’t been seen since June, and trainer Gutierrez is winless in 55 tries the past year, so this one is going to really need to buck a brutal trend to get the nod today. GRADE: C.

SUGGESTED WAGERS Since we are pretty tight with our primary and secondary contenders, today’s MATRIX costs only $68. If you’re unsure of the sequence and weather issues and want to spend less, $50 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $16 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: https://ticketmaker.drf.com/. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/.

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Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!