Possible Impact of U.S.-Iran Tensions on China
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
13.05.2019-19.05.2019 • No: 211 7 POSSIBLE IMPACT OF U.S.-IRAN TENSIONS ON CHINA The long-standing conflict between the conflicts in recent years, can affect the But Beijing’s support for Iran in the U.S.- United States and Iran, which especially in- whole world with its geopolitical, geostrate- Iran confrontation is economically damag- tensified after Donald Trump’s accession to gic and geoeconomic dimensions. The rea- ing for China. The possibility of the Iranian power, has passed to a new critical stage son is that the U.S. ban on Iran’s oil exports economy shrinking due to the U.S. sanctions with the latest sanctions imposed by Wash- will affect not only the Iranian economy, but may affect China, Iran’s largest trading part- ington. Iran, which is rich in energy re- also other countries that are in close cooper- ner. Despite the abolition of sanctions sources, argues that its nuclear energy de- ation with Iran in the trade, economic and, against Iran following the JCPOA agree- velopment efforts are for peaceful purposes, particularly, energy sectors. The total ban on ment, the decline in the Iranian economy while the United States is concerned that Iran’s oil exports, which has one of the larg- due to a sharp drop in global oil prices has Iran’s nuclear power capacity can turn into est oil reserves in the world and is the third led to a decrease in the volume of trade be- nuclear weapons production. In fact, the largest oil producer, will lead to significant tween Iran and China. For example, the Chi- United States supported Iran’s nuclear pro- deficits in the global energy market. In this nese-Iranian bilateral trade volume, which gram in the 1950s. However, after Iran’s Is- context, it can be said that China, which is reached $51.85 billion in 2014, decreased by lamic Revolution in 1979, relations between the biggest oil customer of Iran, will be most 34.7% in 2015 to $33.842 billion and by the two countries soured, and after the affected by the U.S.-Iran tensions. 7.7% in 2016 to $31.23 billion. The Chi- 2000s, the United States accused Iran of try- From the geopolitical and geostrategic nese-Iranian bilateral trade turnover, which ing to develop nuclear weapons. Although points of view, it can be assumed that the increased by 19% to 37.18 billion dollars in Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear energy are rising U.S.-Iran tensions may lead to the de- 2017, fell by 5.4% in 2018 to $35.13 billion. regarded as the main cause of Washington- velopment of political relations between Considering the fact that most of the Chi- Tehran tensions, it can be said that the basis China and Iran. In this regard, first of all, we nese-Iranian bilateral trade is composed of of this endless tension lies in the strategic in- need to briefly review the China-Iran rela- raw materials, especially oil, the U.S. oil terests of both Iran and the United States. tions. China and Iran, which established of- sanctions against Iran could directly affect The economic development and growing re- ficial diplomatic relations in August 1971, the Chinese-Iranian trade. gional influence of Iran, which has an im- have been developing bilateral cooperation From the perspective of China, which im- portant geostrategic position between Cen- at the level of strategic partnership in the po- ports approximately one-fourth of Iran’s to- tral Asia, Eurasia and the Middle East, is of litical, military, commercial-economic and tal crude oil, a complete ban on Iran’s oil ex- great concern for the United States, Israel other fields. After the 2000s, the United ports will result in a significant energy sup- and some of the Gulf countries. On the one States has long accused Iran of trying to de- ply deficit for China. Currently, nearly 7% hand, Iran seeks to increase its regional in- velop nuclear weapons. In addition to that, of China’s total oil imports are provided by fluence with its special position in the Per- the war in Afghanistan in 2001, the Iraq War Iran. If China continues to import oil from sian Gulf and the Hormuz Strait, which are in 2003 and the Arab Spring movements that Iran in spite of the U.S. sanctions against of great importance in terms of global en- started in 2010 have led Iran to pursue an Iran, Chinese companies engaged in trade ergy production and energy transportation, anti-U.S. policy and to have closer relations and cooperation with Iran may also be sub- on the other hand, the United States together with China as an alternative power. China, ject to sanctions by the United States. For with its allies strives to control the region. which is trying to increase its regional and example, in April 2018, the United States Moreover, the involvement of the global and global impact in parallel with its economic banned the Chinese telecommunications gi- regional powers, such as the European Un- growth, has been willing to develop its co- ant ZTE from purchasing U.S. components ion (EU), Great Britain, China and Russia, operation with Iran, an energy-rich and im- for 7 years because of its illegal exports to brings the tensions to the global level. portant Middle Eastern country. In this con- Iran in disregard for the U.S. sanctions Although the parties tried to preserve the text, it could be said that the relations be- against Iran. On May 15, 2019, the Trump administration also imposed sanctions Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action tween China and Iran are undergoing a new against the Chinese telecommunications gi- (JCPOA), signed in July 2015 with the par- development period after Iranian President ant Huawei. ticipation of the United States, the EU, Ger- Hassan Rouhani visited Beijing in May In summary, the U.S.-Iran conflict may have many, China, France, Great Britain, Iran and 2014, and Chinese President Xi Jinping vis- a direct impact on the China-Iran relations Russia, in May 2018, the Trump administra- ited Tehran in January 2016. As recently as from the political, trade-economic and geo- tion unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA. in February 2019, during the visit of Speaker political standpoints. Moreover, the rise of Moreover, the Trump administration, which of Iran’s Parliament (Islamic Consultative the U.S.-Iran tensions at a time when the started to implement economic sanctions Assembly) Ali Larijani to Beijing, Xi stated trade war between the United States and against Iran in August and November 2018, that despite global and regional develop- China flares up was a factor that brought terminated the exemptions from sanctions ments, China would remain committed to China and Iran closer together. In recent for eight countries that import Iranian oil, in- developing a comprehensive strategic part- years, due to the geopolitical changes, China cluding China, on May 2, 2019. Iran nership with Iran. China was one of the first in Asia-Pacific, Iran in the Middle East, and strongly objected to the U.S. decision on a countries to react to recent U.S. sanctions Russia in Eurasia are forming a tripartite al- total ban on Iranian oil exports. Conse- against Iran. For example, on April 23, liance against the United States. However, quently, on May 8, 2019, Tehran stated that 2019, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesper- while China is steadily trying to develop it would fully or partially halt its obligations son Geng Shuang announced at a regular strategic partnership with Iran, how China under the nuclear agreement in response to press conference in Beijing that China was will continue to import oil from Iran under Washington’s sanctions. On the same day, strongly opposed to the U.S. unilateral sanc- harsh U.S. sanctions against Iran is a big Washington imposed sanctions on Iran’s tions against Iran. On May 7, 2019, Chinese question. If China’s oil imports from Iran iron, steel, copper and aluminum sectors, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who met with decreases in the coming period, there will be which has further exacerbated the already Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, said significant economic losses for both China growing U.S.-Iranian tensions. that China was opposed to the U.S. introduc- and Iran. The U.S.-Iranian tension is a chal- It can be said that the rise of the U.S.-Iran tion of unilateral sanctions against Iran and lenging test for the Chinese-Iranian relations tensions in the Middle East, which has be- supported Iran’s protection of its own inter- and may be a bargain for the China-U.S. re- come the center of many global and regional ests. lations. Written by Omirbek Hanayi, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture The EU extended the mandate of its ad- During his visit to Kazakhstan, Prime The International Turkic Academy held visory mission in Ukraine until May 31, Minister of Georgia Mamuka Bakh- the international forum titled “The 2021 and increased its budget by more tadze met with President Kassym- Jomart Tokayev and Prime Minister Great Steppe: Its Cultural Heritage and than 25% to €54 million. The overall Role in World History” in Paris. About objective of the mission with the head- Askar Mamin to discuss prospects of cooperation in trade, economic, invest- 70 leading Turkologists from across the quarters in Kyiv and field offices in ment, tourism and humanitarian sectors. world and UNESCO representatives Lviv, Kharkiv and Odessa is to support The parties also reviewed opportunities discussed historical issues related to the the reform of Ukraine’s civilian security for boosting transit and transport com- services.