United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon

Chair: Valerie Lucas Co-Chair: Wyatt Newsome

University of North Carolina Model United Nations Conference November 2 - 4, 2018 University of North Carolina Table of Contents

Letter from the Chair 2

Introduction 3

History of Conflict in the Area 4

Positions 30

Letter from the Chair

Hello Delegates!

Welcome to UNCMUNC! I am very excited to meet you all, and hear your perspectives and solutions on the conflict between the states of Lebanon and Israel. We understand that a peacekeeping mission is a little different from most General Assemblies, which tend to mirror actual general assemblies in the United Nations. I have found the discussion on the direction of the UNIFIL and other peacekeeping missions equally rich and important, and offers discussion in which each member state has a stake.

A little about me, your chair. I am an Economics and Health Policy & Management double major, and a potential Persian minor. I enjoy international relations in general and

Model UN in particular because they demonstrate that dialogue is very useful for both understanding and making progress on the issues that matter most to us. On the side, I am an advocate and member of the Housing Task Force at a local nonprofit, Community

Empowerment Fund, and I work as a waitress at a nearby Japanese restaurant.

A little about Wyatt, your co-chair. Wyatt is the best—both as a person and as a committee record-keeper. He is a Public Policy and Political Science double major and plays the organ. He enjoys international relations for its complexities of the each actor and conflict resolution. We look forward to discussing UNIFIL and peacekeeping with you!

Best, Valerie Lucas, Chair [email protected]

Introduction

Welcome to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The operation is a robust peacekeeping mission that aims to restore peace between Israel and Lebanon. In this committee, you will discuss and create policy on the issues of Demining, Terrorism, and the broader goal for Long-Term Peace in the area. You will need to utilize many skills to succeed, and you are encouraged to research your own delegation’s stance on each issue.

History of Conflict in the Area

As with many other regions in the Middle East, Lebanon and its surrounding regions have experienced a great deal of turmoil and political conflict. Most of the present-day conflict stems from the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri on February 14, 2005, for which Hezbollah was found responsible. However, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, and Syria have all been major actors in the area, and the history of conflict dates back to when

Lebanon first gained independence in 1943.

The original Lebanese system of government was established so Muslims and

Christians would have a given number of seats in parliament, thus assuring religious stability and harmony. Additionally, the law stated the President must be a Christian

Maronite, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Parliament must be a Shia Muslim.1 However, peace in the region lasted only for a short time, as a civil war broke out in Palestine and partially contributed to the Arab-Israeli War in 1948.

Lebanon, as a member of the Arab League, fought in this war against Israel. Much of the war took place in southern Lebanon, which is still politically and militarily critical to this day. An influx of Palestinian refugees fled to Lebanon as result of the war.2

1 https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2017/11/lebanon-power-players-171104191728060.html 2 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war

In 1958, religious and political tensions escalated to the brink of war. After the formation of the United Arab Republic between Egypt and Syria in February, the Lebanese government split over how to react and who to support. Despite pushback from Muslims within the government, Lebanon decided to ally with Western powers. After the overthrow of Iraq’s pro-western government on July 14, Lebanese President Camille Chamoun contacted U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower the next day in a request for assistance.

This resulted in the U.S.-led Operation Blue Bat, which aligned with Eisenhower’s agenda to stop the spread of communism. After U.S. military intervention, the dispute was eventually settled by the election of Lebanese President Fuad Chehab.3

Throughout the 1960’s and early 1970’s, tensions in Lebanon increased exponentially. The Lebanese economy was small and grew slowly, which meant the average standard of living remained quite low. However, Christians seemed to be the main beneficiaries of any economic growth, which further contributed to tensions between the two prominent religions. Additionally, other regional conflicts between Christians and

Muslims in the Middle East only fueled similar conflict within Lebanon. After the Six Days

War fought between Israel and Egypt, Syria, and Jordan in 1967, the Palestinian Liberation

Organization (PLO) established a base in Lebanon, since the 1969 Cairo Agreement had already given Palestinian forces control of refugee camps in Lebanon. The organization

3 https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/blue_bat.htm

6 remained in Lebanon until June 1982, when Israel would invade southern Lebanon and force the PLO away.4

The tensions eventually boiled to a climax when two major coalitions coalesced within Lebanon. These were the Lebanese Forces, consisting mostly of Maronite Christians, and the mostly-Muslim Lebanese National Movement. The main sect of the Lebanese

Forces was the Kateb Party (or Phalange Party), while major subsets of the Lebanese

National Movements were the Progressive Socialist Party, the Shia-led Amal militia, the

Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the Communist Party, the Arab Ba’th Party, and the Sunni al-Murabitun militia.5

The Lebanese Civil War unofficially began on April 13, 1975, when four people were murdered in East Beirut, two of whom were Christian members of the Phalangist party.

Later that day, a group of Phalangists murdered thirty Palestinians. In October, the Battle of the Hotels began, which lasted for five months. This involved the Lebanese National

Movement and Lebanese Front battling for control over an area of hotels in Beirut. After four more Phalangists were murdered on December 6, the Lebanese government established roadblocks to check citizens’ identification as they passed through. There are numerous accounts of Muslims and Palestinians being murdered simply for passing through these roadblocks. Phalangists also took Muslims hostage.

4 https://www.britannica.com/event/Six-Day-War 5 https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/sociology-and-social-reform/sociology-general-terms- and-concepts/lebanese

The conflict escalated in January of 1976, when the Karatina massacre saw the murder of around 1,500 Muslims and the Damour massacre witnessed the murder of up to

600 Christians. Beirut was soon then separated de facto split into the de facto Muslim west and the Christian east, which each became homogenous communities. The informal border between the two came to be known as the “Green Line.”

In 1976, Syria intervened to advance their own interests. Specifically, the Syrian government was concerned that if the Palestinian groups gained control, the Sunni-majority government in Syria would eventually dissolve too. Syrian troops entered on June 1 and supported the Maronite Christians in the conflict. The Civil War then ended when Syria came into full occupation of Lebanon. However, tensions remained high and the country remained segregated.

Conflict resumed with the Hundred Days War in February 1978, when the Christian

Lebanese Front had a brief conflict with Syrian troops. Then, in March, armed members of the Palestinian Liberation Organization invaded Israel and attacked citizens on a highway between Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing 39. Israel responded by invading Lebanon, where they successfully gained control of most of south Lebanon. International attention shifted towards this conflict; the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 425 and

Resolution 426 in March 1978, which requested Israel immediately withdraw troops from

Lebanon and also established the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNFIL). In response, Israel ordered a ceasefire. The PLO followed suit about a week later. Israel

8 officially withdrew from Lebanon in April 1978, though several UN peacekeepers experienced violence after their withdrawal. Tensions escalated further as the mainly-

Christian South Lebanon Army fired shots at UN headquarters and killed 8 peacekeepers.

Furthermore, Maronite Christian gunmen murdered three Irish peacekeepers.6

Israel’s 1978 withdrawal from Lebanon was not complete, as Israel established a security zone along the border. During the ceasefire, the PLO attacked Israeli troops dozens of times and in retaliation, Israel bombed PLO buildings in Beirut. The aforementioned bombing was widely criticized internationally and the United States temporarily halted its aircraft exports to Israel.

After a faction of the PLO staged an attempted assassination on Shlomo Argov, the

Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom, in June 1982, Israel attacked PLO bases in

Beirut. The PLO retaliated by launching rocket and artillery attacks. This escalation prompted the UNSC to adopt Resolution 508, which called for a ceasefire between Israel and the PLO. On the same day as the scheduled ceasefire, Israel invaded Lebanon and advanced 25 miles. The Security Council then adopted Resolution 509, demanding a full

Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.7

Israeli troops made their way to Beirut in 1982. While the United States pushed for

PLO withdrawal, the Security Council passed yet another resolution that requested Israeli withdrawal from Beirut, with the eventual goal of complete Israeli withdrawal from

6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Days%27_War 7 http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/508

Lebanon. The same resolution also requested the PLO withdraw from Beirut and return to their refugee camps. The United States vetoed this resolution, as they felt it did not take significant enough action against the PLO. President Ronald Reagan reportedly called

Israeli Prime Minister Begin to request Israel back off, to which Israel complied. American diplomat Philip Habib then called for a ceasefire and withdrawal of both sides, while gathering American, French, and Italian troops to escort the PLO and protect citizens. The

United States, Britain, France, and Italy created and deployed multinational troops.

Phalangist Bachir Gemayel became President of Lebanon in August, before being assassinated in September by a Syrian socialist.8

Two days after the President’s assassination, Phalangists massacred as many as

3,500 Lebanese and Palestinian Shiites. While the Phalangists were the perpetrators of the massacre, Israeli troops blocked exits from the affected neighborhoods and the Israeli government did not take any action to stop the massacres. However, an Israeli commission was established to investigate the killings and eventually found Defense Minister Ariel

Sharon responsible, prompting him to resign.9

Israel, Lebanon, and the United States signed The 17 May Agreement in 1983. This resolution stated there was no longer an active war between Israel and Lebanon, establishing a peace agreement. Many Arab countries perceived this as a forced surrender and Syria refused to withdraw its troops over the 17 May Agreement. Israel then withdrew

8 https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/usmnf.htm 9 https://www.biography.com/people/ariel-sharon-9480655

10 and did not intervene after conflict between the PLO and the Lebanese Forces broke out.

The Lebanese Army then collapsed in 1984, which led to a cancellation of the 17 May

Agreement and withdrawal of U.S. troops. Some chaos ensued afterwards, with several suicide bombings targeting Western-allied embassies and governmental centers in Beirut.

Hezbollah also formed and began to grow during this time.10

While much of the conflict in Lebanon can be described as Christians fighting

Muslims, there were also instances of different organizations of the same religion fighting each other. In 1985, the War of the Camps was fought between the PLO and Syrian-backed

Palestinian organizations. Even though Syrian troops intervened, Hezbollah was eventually able to take control of much of Beirut. More controversy arose when Christian President

Gemayel appointed another Christian as Prime Minister, even though the role of Prime

Minister was always reserved for a Sunni Muslim. Fearful of Iran’s influence in Lebanon,

Iraq President Saddam Hussein offered support to Maronite troops. Even with resistance from Lebanese Prime Minister Aoun (now the current President), Syria expanded their influence and the Civil War unofficially ended.

After Israel withdrew to the security zone in February 1985, many of their troops were attacked under the influence of Hezbollah. Many of the attacks were Katyusha rocket attacks launched on military personnel and citizens. During this time, Israel also captured many terrorists and tortured them to obtain information. At this time, there were numerous

10 http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-8080.html

11 small attacks which caused relatively few deaths, until Hezbollah leader Sheikh Abdul

Karim Obeid was captured by Israel in 1989. In response, the Security Council signed

Resolution 638 to prevent hostage-taking by everyone involved in the conflict. In 1989, the

Ta’if Accord was signed which brought the official end to the civil war, though Israel maintained a small presence in southern Lebanon until their complete withdrawal in 2000.

Unsurprisingly, there were several attacks between 1989 and 2000, especially near the security zone. After the Ta’if Accord, assassinations between Israel and Hezbollah were not unusual. Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi and the Israeli Ambassador to Turkey were both assassinated. After Hezbollah assassinated a leader of SLA, Israel retreated from south

Lebanon and Hezbollah pushed forward.11

Even after the end of the Civil War, there were still high tensions between Israel and

Hezbollah. Just months after Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah attacked and kidnapped three

Israeli servicemen near the border. This incident occurred in the Shebaa Farms area, which was known for its high incidence of violence. Both sides attacked each other on a small scale with some military and civilian casualties.

In 2005, Lebanese citizens became angered at the assassination of Prime Minister

Rafic Hariri and became tired of Syrian occupation Lebanon, and peacefully protested in hopes of change. This became the Cedar Revolution and was similar to the Color

Revolutions in the former USSR, where citizens used civil disobedience to transition to

11 https://www.britannica.com/topic/Hezbollah

12 democracy and oust tyrannical leaders. Although Syria had not been proven responsible for the assassination, Lebanese citizens expressed anger at Syria and their own pro-Syrian government for failing to foresee and stop the assassination. Demonstrations of over 10,000 citizens gathered to protest weekly in Martyrs Square in Beirut in February 2005. As a result, the pro-Syrian Prime Minister resigned and the UNSC called for Syrian withdrawal and disarmament of Hezbollah with Resolution 1559. Syria complied within months.12

Even with the change of leadership, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah continued to rise. On July 12 2006, Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel as a diversion while Hezbollah troops crossed the border and killed three soldiers. In response, Israel sent a tank, a helicopter, and an armored personnel carrier across the border. The tank struck a land mine and left five more dead. Israel viewed this as an act of war and placed blame on the Lebanese government. Israel conducted multiple airstrikes and struck the Rafic Hariri

International Airport, killing 44 citizens. The Israeli army destroyed between half and two- thirds of Hezbollah’s rocket technology, giving them confidence and relief. Representatives from all over the world, including the United States, criticized Israel for dropping 23 tons of munitions but failing to kill any Hezbollah leaders. As a result, Lebanese infrastructure was severely damaged. Hezbollah responded by launching rockets and killing eight Israelis in Haifa. Hezbollah continued to strike civilian and military targets before a ground war occurred. The Lebanese government was typically critical of Israel and supportive of

12 http://www.lokashakti.org/encyclopedia/movements/710-lebanons-cedar-revolution

Hezbollah, although war was never declared between Lebanon and Israel. A ceasefire was finally reached through UNSC Resolution 1701.13

History and Purpose of Peacekeeping

The United Nations deployed its first peacekeeping mission in 1948 to reduce conflict between the newly established state of Israel and neighboring Arab states. That peacekeeping group was limited to standing as a physical barrier between two opposing forces. Currently there are 15 active peacekeeping missions worldwide. Peacekeeping’s legal basis lies in the United Nations Charter, which states the UN has the capability to take necessary measures to ensure conflict resolution.

Peacekeeping tends to have a few ground rules. First, peacekeepers cannot use violence except in self-defense or in defense of the mission. While peacekeeping groups are usually armed, they cannot attack first even if it would strategically advantageous. This first rule distinguishes them from something that would be more like the United Nation’s private army. Second, peacekeeping missions must be impartial. Both policing and negotiation are conducted without favoring a particular side. Finally, peacekeeping is carried out only with the consent of all the parties involved.

13 https://www.un.org/press/en/2006/sc8808.doc.htm

There are many different levels of peacekeeping, but they can be boiled down into four types. They range from traditional peacekeeping, which is the lowest degree of commitment, to peace enforcement, which is the highest degree of commitment.

Traditional Peacekeeping

The earliest form of peacekeeping, employed by the UN staring in 1948; simply standing in between two opposing parties, monitoring their movements, and preventing violence between the two.

Robust Peacekeeping

More involved peacekeeping that seeks to create lines of communication between the parties; also provides material aid to civilians and

Peacebuilding

Peacekeeping that actively works to build new governments and social systems to make lasting peace and structural improvements; considered a more proactive approach to peace, but comes with more challenges and money; potential aspects of peacebuilding include making infrastructure

Peace Enforcement

Peacekeeping without the agreement of one or more parties in the conflict; breaks one of the central tenants of peacekeeping, but can be used in extreme circumstances to prevent conflict.

Some observers question whether peacekeeping can be useful at all, and point to several failed, even disastrous, attempts to protect civilians or stop violence. A prototypical example of this failure occurred in Srebrenica in 1995, where areas UN peacekeepers declared safe and protected were attacked and 8,000 people lost their lives. However, peacekeeping had successfully has prevented violence in many instances, and the most of the failures of peacekeeping have been withdrawing from an area too soon as in Rwanda or

Somalia, rather than bungling an open operation. Good peacekeeping is about problem solving and maximizing the safety of everyone involved.14

14 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/bosnia/11729436/Srebrenica-20-years-on-What-have- been-the-successes-and-failures-of-UN-peacekeeping-missions.html

Area of Operation by Country

Above is a deployment map of UNIFIL troops by country and location of important bases.15

Blue Line

The “Blue Line” refers to the line created by the United Nations that officially determined the border between Lebanon and Israel. After United Nations Security Council

Resolution 425 was passed, Israel withdrew from Lebanon. Since there was no border agreed upon between the two countries, the United Nations created one, which has become the Blue Line. In 2007, UNIFIL workers marked the border with blue markers to help citizens know where the border is.

15 https://unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-maps

The Blue Line is mapped above, shown by the thick blue line.16

Education On and Removal of Landmines

Throughout Lebanon’s conflicts with Israel and other bordering countries, clusters of mines have been placed in the country. This is especially true in area of Lebanon near the

Israel border. These mines are quite dangerous, as they caused 903 deaths and 2,780 injuries between 1975 and 2012.17

The mines placed in southern Lebanon have affected not only soldiers but also residents. There have been recorded incidents of small villages, such as Blida, being plagued

16 https://unifil.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/20170113presskit.pdf 17 https://www.economist.com/pomegranate/2014/07/31/still-a-danger

18 with cluster bombs. This even prevented movement throughout the village due to fear of triggering the mines. The mayor of Blida claimed that Lebanon was an “agricultural country” and that “80 percent of the people depend on agriculture, livestock, and cattle.”

Obviously, if a farmer cannot access or use his land due to mines, both locals and the entire country will be harmed. The entire country of Lebanon only sees agriculture as 5 percent of

GDP and 8 percent of the labor force, but the rural southern regions in question can see agriculture as high as 80 percent of the local GDP. It is also worth noting that rural populations of Lebanon make up 12 percent of the country’s total population.18

Even though there have been fields of mines plaguing south Lebanon, UNIFIL peacekeepers have successfully cleared out many of them. This has allowed landowners to resettle the area and rebuild their lives and the regional economy. The process of de-mining does include both detecting and safely destroying the mines, which can be a rather slow and risky task.

The current state of de-mining in Lebanon seems to be mostly positive but there is still work to be done near the Lebanon-Israel border. UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force

Commander Major General Michael Beary has spoken out about how UNIFIL is concerned that there may be around 1,000 minefields in the area. Beary also noted that children are extremely vulnerable to these mines and it would be in their best interest to safely disable the mines.19 The remaining landmines also pose a danger to people other than the

18 http://www.fao.org/lebanon/fao-in-lebanon/lebanon-at-a-glance/en/ 19 https://unifil.unmissions.org/keeping-peace-through-de-mining

19 predictable citizens, soldiers, and peacekeepers. In the mountainous region of Baaloul, a cluster bomb was discovered merely two meters away from a tent housing Syrian refugees.20

Education has also played a major role in mine safety missions. On June 14, 2018, a group of students gathered in the southern Lebanese area of Tyre to learn more about mines. The event was called Mine Risk Education day and similar events have occurred in the past year or so. The events have been sponsored by organizations including Mines Advisory Group, the United Nation Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the European Union, Lebanese Welfare

Association for the Handicapped, Balamand University, and Islamic Risala Association.21

A map demonstrating the current state of demining in south Lebanon.22

20 https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/53956 21 https://unifil.unmissions.org/hundreds-school-children-are-educated-dangers-mines-south-lebanon 22 https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/53956

When discussing demining in Lebanon, there are several aspects to consider. First, one must decide whether or not to continue the demining process. Most countries involved with UNIFIL would argue that it would be in the best interest of civilians, soldiers, and peacekeepers to continue demining. However, some may argue in favor of keeping the mines, in case the missions of UNIFIL were to fail and conflict between Lebanon and Israel were to resume in the future.

Furthermore, different regions of Lebanon have varying concentrations of remaining landmines, so it may be best to focus on one area at a time or to “divide and conquer,” depending on one’s strategy. Should the consistent line of landmines at the Blue Line be left as it is while the other areas are disarmed or should the Blue Line become safe as well?

Finally, there are different tactics for increasing mine safety in Lebanon. As previously discussed, physically disarming the mines and spreading education about mine safety are two of the most common methods. Non-governmental organizations such as Mines Advisory

Group (MAG) and Landmine Action have also played a major role in fostering local mine safety. According to MAG International, the issue of de-mining is difficult to approach since it is often unnoticed, and de-mining groups are often poorly organized. Additionally, Syrian refugees face a disproportionate amount of danger due to their higher exposure to mines and less education about mine safety. Finally, NGOs dealing with mining have received less funding in recent years.23 However, safety is often the first step in alleviating poverty and

23 https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/53956

21 should absolutely be a priority for UNIFIL’s missions. For further information, please refer to the International Mine Action Standards.24

An infographic showing statistics of demining through UNIFIL.25

The Threat of Terrorism in Lebanon

Lebanon has experienced threats of terrorism from multiple terrorist organizations in the Middle East. Perhaps this is due to shaky relations with its neighbors, a lack of border security on Lebanon’s behalf, or that many turmoil-causing events in other countries have spillover effects. The United States Department of State has listed Lebanon as a level three travel advisory (or “reconsider travel”) due to its border conflicts with Israel and Syria.26

24 https://www.mineactionstandards.org/standards/glossary/ 25 https://unifil.unmissions.org/infographics 26 https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/lebanon-travel-advisory.html

Additionally, the United Kingdom has suggested terrorism threats in Lebanon are most common in tourist areas such as Beirut.27 The four Lebanese terrorist groups that pose the biggest threats to citizens and foreigners are the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, Asbat al-Ansar,

Hezbollah, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

Abdullah Azzam Brigades is the Lebanese branch of al-Qaeda. It is a Sunni Islamist militant group first organized in 2009. The group’s most prominent attack in Lebanon was on November 19, 2013, when the Brigades took responsibility for bombing the Iranian embassy in Beirut. The attacks killed 23 people and wounded at least 160. The apparent motivation seems to be a form of protest of the Syrian Civil War, as Iran has supported

Hezbollah and the Syrian government, who the Abdullah Azzam Brigades have opposes. A similar attack occurred on February 19, 2014, when the Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility for attacking an Iranian Cultural Center in Beirut, which killed 11 and wounded 130. The Lebanese government has taken some significant action against the

Brigades. On December 27, 2013, the Lebanese government captured the former leader of the Brigades, Majid bin Mohammad al-Majid, who died in custody. Since the arrest, the terrorist organization seems to have quieted down, despite remaining active in Lebanon.28

Another terrorist organization that poses a threat to Lebanon is Asbat al-Ansar, or

AAA. This organization is a Sunni (Salafi movement) fundamentalist group that operates solely in Lebanon. Their main operations are within a Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon.

27 https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/lebanon/terrorism 28 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Azzam_Brigades

The group has been in operation since the 1990’s. AAA allegedly has ties to al-Qaeda and professes the mission of overthrowing the Lebanese government to create an Islamic state.

Notably, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon Fouad Siniora (now member of the Future

Movement in Parliament) allegedly aided AAA by providing them with weapons and supplies. Asbat al-Ansar was more prevalent in the 1990’s, with members assassinating religious leaders throughout Lebanon. The group also took actions against citizens by bombing liquor stores, nightclubs, and theaters. One former member, Mahir al-Sa’di, was prosecuted in 2004 for the attempted murder of the U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, David

Satterfield. Although AAA has expressed support for al-Qaeda, the former organization has not committed any major terrorist attacks recently, with the group reportedly being worried their base near the refugee camp would be invaded if the group were to stage such an attack.

Their most prevalent attacks occurred in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s and included the assassination of four judges, an attempted coup, a rocket attack on the Russian Embassy to

Lebanon, and a rocket attack on Future TV building in Beirut.29 Nevertheless, we cannot underestimate the threat of Asbat al-Ansar.

Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist terrorist group and a political party in Lebanon. In fact, the party holds 12 out of 128 seats in Parliament, and 2 out of 30 Cabinet seats. Hezbollah first organized under Iranian influences during the conflict between Iran and Iraq. It is certainly more powerful and more influential than any other terrorist organization in Lebanon, as

29 http://mackenzieinstitute.com/asbat-al-ansar-aaa-league-partisans-2/

24 they were able to fend off the Israeli troops in 2006 and are now viewed as stronger than the Lebanese army. The organization also receives assistance from Syria.

Hezbollah came to international attention in the 1980’s, when they fought against the American troops in the conflict between Israel and the PLO and also opposed the influence of Syria and occupation by Israel. They pioneered suicide bombings during their struggle against Israeli occupation. . Most major attacks committed by Hezbollah occurred in the 1980’s, when they bombed the Israeli Defense Forces headquarters, the U.S. embassy, the headquarters of the Multinational Forces, Kuwait governmental centers, and also held about a hundred hostages.

In recent years, the organization has bombed the Israeli embassies to Argentina and the United Kingdom, a Jewish culture center, a Panamanian flight carrying Jews, and trained troops to fight against Americans during the Iraq War. The organization has also been accused of attacks in the greater Mediterranean, such as in Turkey and Bulgaria.

Hezbollah first began to participate in Lebanese elections in 1992, and has been a small but influential part of government ever since. Most recently, Hezbollah was responsible for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, and had aided the Syrian government in the Syrian Civil War. In fact, Hezbollah has been so involved in Syria that many allies of

Lebanon have expressed concern that the group would endanger Lebanon. When dealing

25 with threats of terrorism, Hezbollah is most certainly the most active threat to worry about in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and beyond.30

The final terrorist organization that poses the greatest threat to UNIFIL operations is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The spread of ISIL into Lebanon is mostly due to conflict occurring in nearby Syria with their civil war. Fighting in Lebanon has only further divided the religious sects, as Sunni Muslims have typically supported the Syrian rebels and Shia Muslims have supported the Syrian government. Due to the fighting and insurgence of ISIL, there has been a spike of murders and kidnappings of Lebanese citizens.

As of August 2017, ISIL troops have surrendered and withdrawn from Lebanon, making the situation is calmer, but the Syrian Civil War continues and further unrest in Lebanon should not be discounted. From a noteworthy international perspective, the United States has expressed discontent with Lebanon’s choice to let ISIL rebels flee to Syria after their defeat.31

In addition to these four locally-based terrorist organizations, several other foreign- based terrorist groups pose threats to UNIFIL and Lebanon. AAMB, or al-Aqsa Martyrs’

Brigade, is an extremist group that works toward establishing a Palestinian state between the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem. All of their attacks have occured in Israel but the AAMB is seeking to boost their presence within Lebanon. The Tahrir al-Sham is a network of four former terrorist organizations fighting against the Syrian government in

30 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah 31 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-lebanon-isis-evacuation-criticised-stranded- deir-ezzor-iraq-a7923036.html

26 their civil war. However, the network has made a strong presence near the Lebanon-Syria border and has attacked numerous Lebanese governmental centers and citizens. The

Palestinian Liberation Front is a sect of the PLO that seeks to defeat Israel and claim

Jerusalem for Palestine. The PLF often recruits through refugee camps, which could include those in Lebanon. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine poses a similar threat and recruitment strategy, and even holds a few seats in the legislative body of Palestine.

Finally, the PFLP-General Command is an organization closely related to the PFLP and recruits members in refugee camps.32

The international community has universally condemned the aforementioned terrorist groups The United Nations, Israel, New Zealand, the United Arab Emirates, the

United Kingdom, and the United States have designated the Abdullah Azzam Brigades as a terrorist organization. The United Nations, Australia, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the

United States all consider Asbat al-Ansar to be a terrorist threat. Hezbollah, as it is more established and prevalent, has received varying levels of condemnation. However, the Arab

League, Gulf Cooperation Council, Bahrain, Canada, France, Israel, Japan, Netherlands, and the U.S. all have fully condemned Hezbollah as a terrorist group. Australia has only condemned the External Security Organization, and the military wing is opposed by the

European Union, New Zealand, and the U.K. Allies of Hezbollah include Cuba, Iran, Iraq,

North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela, while China and Russia have remained neutral. In

32 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/le.html

27 response to the influx of ISIL in Lebanon, representatives of the UN, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US all spoke out with concern for Lebanon’s safety.

When examining all of the complicated terrorist organizations in Lebanon and nearby areas, it is important to assess preventative measures. In her article “Preventing the

Next Attack: A Strategy for the War on Terrorism”, Lisa Monaco argues that to successfully combat terrorism in the future, countries will dismantle physical havens where terrorists plan their attacks as well as virtual havens where organizations can easily recruit members and spread propaganda. They must also restore order to areas of chaos and weak governments such as Syria and Libya where terrorists can easily gain power.33 Of course, there are simple and unique strategies that terrorists use, and proper responses have been found for each of the attack strategies.

The four strategies that terrorists often use are coercion/attrition, provocation, spoiling, and outbidding. Coercion is when terrorists threaten a government by imposing certain costs onto them in order to change the status quo. Provocation is when terrorists impose costs onto a government that forces the government to ignore moderates in their country and listen to extremists. Spoiling is the method of sabotaging any possible peace between terrorist organizations and their governments. Finally, outbidding is when terrorists attempt to display their strength or give promises to citizens to make their rule more appealing than rule by the current government. General ways of preventing terrorism

33 Lisa Monaco. “Preventing the Next Attack.” 2017.

28 include deterrence, preemption, using defensive measures, criminalization, or through negotiation and compromise.34 However, there may be some specific preventive methods unique to strategies that terrorists use.

Long-term Peace Strategy

The ultimate goal of any peacekeeping mission should be to make itself unnecessary.

Peacekeeping ought to be a temporary solution for peace while the two or more sides of the conflict work to resolve their concerns, negotiate permanent land claims, and cease their hostilities. After four decades of UNIFIL, there is not an end in sight. In 2017, the Security

Council voted to extend the mission. Countries including the United States and Israel looked upon this decision optimistically as a potential source of peace by way of weakening

Hezbollah. However, the mission has neither reached much success nor changed much in the area. Israel’s 2006 attacks did not force a change in UNIFIL’s strategies, but only a mere twofold increase in the mission’s size.

A key aspect of modern peacekeeping missions is consent of the parties.. UNIFIL is no exception, meaning that both Israel and Lebanon consent to UNIFIL enforcement of the ceasefire. While this makes peacekeeping more politically palatable, it also tends to make it less powerful. Keeping this in mind, UNIFIL needs a strategy moving forward to prevent further Israeli advances and breaches of the ceasefire. As recently as August 2018, the IDF

34 Frieden, Lake, Schultz. “World Politics.” 2016.

29 was breaking the ceasefire negotiated with UNIFIL’s help.35 While renegotiating a ceasefire with both parties is a step in the right direction, hopefully this organization will pave a more permanent road to peace.

35 UN: Cease-Fire Violations May Spark Lebanon-Israel Conflict - The ...

Positions

● Lebanon ● Cambodia

● Israel ● Tanzania

● Syria ● Croatia

● United States ● El Salvador

● Indonesia ● Serbia

● Italy ● Sri Lanka

● Turkey ● Estonia

● India ● FYR Macedonia

● Iraq ● Malaysia

● Nepal ● Brunei

● Saudi Arabia ● Slovenia

● Ghana ● Hungary

● Iran ● Spain

● France ● Egypt

● Yemen ● Ireland

● Cyprus ● Belarus

● Armenia ● United Arab Emirates

● Austria ● Greece

● Qatar ● South Korea

● China ● Brazil

● Pakistan ● Finland

● Germany ● Fiji

● Bangladesh ● Monaco

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