GGI Analysis 2020
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War Prevention Works 50 Stories of People Resolving Conflict by Dylan Mathews War Prevention OXFORD • RESEARCH • Groupworks 50 Stories of People Resolving Conflict
OXFORD • RESEARCH • GROUP war prevention works 50 stories of people resolving conflict by Dylan Mathews war prevention works OXFORD • RESEARCH • GROUP 50 stories of people resolving conflict Oxford Research Group is a small independent team of Oxford Research Group was Written and researched by researchers and support staff concentrating on nuclear established in 1982. It is a public Dylan Mathews company limited by guarantee with weapons decision-making and the prevention of war. Produced by charitable status, governed by a We aim to assist in the building of a more secure world Scilla Elworthy Board of Directors and supported with Robin McAfee without nuclear weapons and to promote non-violent by a Council of Advisers. The and Simone Schaupp solutions to conflict. Group enjoys a strong reputation Design and illustrations by for objective and effective Paul V Vernon Our work involves: We bring policy-makers – senior research, and attracts the support • Researching how policy government officials, the military, of foundations, charities and The front and back cover features the painting ‘Lightness in Dark’ scientists, weapons designers and private individuals, many of decisions are made and who from a series of nine paintings by makes them. strategists – together with Quaker origin, in Britain, Gabrielle Rifkind • Promoting accountability independent experts Europe and the and transparency. to develop ways In this United States. It • Providing information on current past the new millennium, has no political OXFORD • RESEARCH • GROUP decisions so that public debate obstacles to human beings are faced with affiliations. can take place. nuclear challenges of planetary survival 51 Plantation Road, • Fostering dialogue between disarmament. -
WOULD AIR STRIKES WORK? Understanding Iran’S Nuclear Programme and the Possible Consequences of a Military Strike
WOULD AIR STRIKES WORK? Understanding Iran’s nuclear programme and the possible consequences of a military strike Frank Barnaby With a foreword by Hans Blix BRIEFING PAPER MARCH 2007 Published by Oxford Research Group, 2007 Oxford Research Group Development House 56 - 64 Leonard Street London, EC2A 4LT United Kingdom Copyright © Oxford Research Group, 2007 Some rights reserved. This paper is licensed under a Creative Commons licence that allows copy and distribution for non-profit use, provided the author and ORG are attributed properly and the work is not altered in any way. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ for full details. Please contact Oxford Research Group if you would like to translate this report. About the Author Frank Barnaby is Nuclear Issues Consultant to Oxford Research Group. He is a nuclear physicist by training and worked at the Atomic Weapons Research Establishment, Aldermaston between 1951-57. He was on the senior scientific staff of the Medical Research Council when a university lecturer at University College London (1957-67). He was Executive Secretary of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affaires in the late 1960s and Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) from 1971-81.His books include: ‘The Invisible Bomb’ (Tauris, 1989), ‘The Gaia Peace Atlas’ (Pan, 1989), ‘The Automated Battlefield’ (Sidgwick & Jackson, 1987), ‘Star Wars’ (Fourth Estate, 1987), ‘Future Warfare’ (Michael Joseph, 1986) and ‘The Role and Control of Military Force in the 1990s’. Acknowledgements Oxford Research Group gratefully acknowledges the support of the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation and our many supporters and Sustainers for making the publication of this report possible. -
Endless War the Global War on Terror and the New Bush Administration
Endless War The global war on terror and the new Bush Administration Paul Rogers Oxford Research Group March 2005 Endless War: The global war on terror and the new Bush Administration Contents Executive Summary 3 Introduction 4 The US Political Context 4 Neoconservatism and Christian Zionism 5 Responding to 9/11 7 The Status of al-Qaida 8 Israel, Palestine and the War on Terror 12 Iran and Syria 13 Prospects and Alternatives 15 Notes 16 2 OXFORD RESEARCH GROUP Endless War: The global war on terror and the new Bush Administration Executive Summary Three and a half years after 11th September and two years after the termination of the Saddam Hussein regime, the “global war on terror” has no end in sight. Al-Qaida and its affiliates remain active and effective, with a stronger support base and a higher intensity of attacks than before 11th September. The United States is embroiled in a conflict in Iraq that has already cost over 25,000 lives. Even so, the second Bush administration is likely to strengthen its pursuit of a New American Century, with little prospect of changes in policy towards Iraq or al-Qaida and the possibility of an extension of its Middle East policy to a confrontation with Iran. In Washington, the neoconservative agenda is strengthened by the rise of Christian Zionism, making it less likely that the administration will encourage Israel to accept a fully viable two-state solution to its confrontation with the Palestinians. It may be argued that many aspects of US security policy are counterproductive, but this is likely to have little impact in Washington. -
Defining Remote Warfare: Security Cooperation
Defining Remote Warfare: Security Cooperation Briefing Number 1 Tom Watts and Rubrick Biegon [Date] 0 This report has been commissioned by Remote Control, a project of the Network for Social Change hosted by the Oxford Research Group. The project examines changes in mili- tary engagement, with a focus on remote warfare. This form of intervention takes place be- hind the scenes or at a distance rather than on a traditional battlefield, often through drone strikes and air strikes from above, with Special Forces, intelligence agencies, private contrac- tors, and military training teams on the ground. Published by Remote Control, November 2017 Remote Control Oxford Research Group Development House 56-64 Leonard Street London EC2A 4LT United Kingdom +44 (0)207 549 0298 [email protected] http://remotecontrolproject.org The text of this report is made available under a Creative Commons license. Photographs remain the copyright of original holders. All citations must be credited to Remote Control, Tom Watts and Rubrick Biegon. This is a commissioned piece of research that does not necessarily reflect the views of the Remote Control Project. Cover image: US Africa Command (US Army photo by Spc. Zayid Ballesteros) About the Series The Remote Control Project is a research and when you see it”. Moreover, while we have policy unit analysing the rise of remote been focusing on the use of remote warfare warfare: the recent shift away from “boots on on today’s battlefield, we are also aware that the ground” deployments towards light- future changes in technology, especially the footprint military interventions abroad. rising importance of cyber and autonomous weapons, will have an impact on how we Among other factors, austerity, budget cuts, should understand remote warfare. -
Enacting Global Transformation
Enacting Global Transformation A Collaborative Initiative of the Centre of International Studies, University of Oxford In Partnership with Theatre of Transformation Academy WHY, Why Now, and So What: The Motivation, Purpose and Intended Impact Purpose: to bring humanity and creativity to the responses of scholars, policy makers, crisis-affected communities and the public to crises of security and governance, and stimulate new ideas for paradigm change. Why: We stand at the precipice of what could be the most perilous period in human history since the 1930s. We are called now to ‘not merely tinker with piecemeal reform of governance structures that leave the current paradigm of governance intact, but fundamentally… redefine the paradigm of power itself.’1 This collaborative initiative responds to this imperative by combining transformative theory, practice and policy with the arts. Why now: The dire global climate of violent conflict, divisive national politics, and severely strained international relations we face today requires innovative, effective responses grounded in humanity and ethics. The intended impact is to foster renewed thinking, research, policies and public reactions to global crises of war and governance, as evidenced through creative research, initiatives and collaborations to enact global transformation. This initiative does not seek piecemeal responses to individual global crises. Rather, it evokes critical rethinking of prevailing paradigms of power underlying today’s intertwined crises of war and governance, and fosters humane and creative thinking to shape new paradigms of power for politics and IR. WHAT FOR: Origins and Objectives This project builds on previous research projects conducted at CIS since 2009, on the responsibility to protect, culture, religion and governance. -
GA Background Paper
GA United Nations General Assembly Committee: United Nations General Assembly (GA) Topic: The question of implementing a standing military force within the United Nations system Written by: Bárbara Martínez, Karen Soto and Camila Mota I. Committee Background The General Assembly (GA) is the primary deliberative, decision-making and representative body of the United Nations (UN). The General Assembly has many vital functions, including the admission, removal or expulsion of UN member states. The UN Charter summarizes its key purposes as “promot[ing] international co-operation in the economic, social, cultural, educational, and health fields, and assists in the consciousness of human rights and fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion” (Whiting, WEF, 2018). Currently, the GA consists of 193 member states and two non-member observer states. The committee’s headquarters are located in the UN Building in New York City. The General Assembly is responsible for overseeing the budget of the UN, selecting the non-permanent members of the Security Council, voting on the Secretary-General of the United Nations, making recommendations in the form of resolutions and establishing subsidiary organizations (Charter, UN, 2020). II. Topic Information a) History of the Topic According to the United Nations, peacekeepers are specially trained individuals who “provide security and the political and peacebuilding support to help countries make the difficult, early transition from conflict to peace” (Thematic Issues, UN, 2019). All UN peacekeeping operations are governed by rules set out in the UN Charter and are approved of by the United Nations Security Council. The role of peacekeepers has evolved since the UN’s first peacekeeping mission in 1960. -
EAST of SUEZ, WEST from HELMAND: BRITISH EXPEDITIONARY FORCE and the NEXT SDSR Richard Reeve
Oxford Research Group | December 2014 Oxford Research Group Briefing – December 2014 EAST OF SUEZ, WEST FROM HELMAND: BRITISH EXPEDITIONARY FORCE AND THE NEXT SDSR Richard Reeve The formal signature on 5 December of a new defence cooperation agreement between the UK and Bahrain, including the formalisation of a ‘permanent’ Royal Navy forward operating base in Manama, is the latest step in the current UK Government’s plans to reconsolidate a military presence in the Persian Gulf. Of little significance in itself, the upgraded Bahrain naval base and the timing of its announcement are important reflections of British strategic thinking in the context of withdrawal from Afghanistan, intervention in the messy ideological and proxy wars of the wider Middle East, and the looming Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), due after the May 2015 election. East of Suez The UK’s security relationship with Bahrain is not new. A British protectorate, along with all the other southern Gulf emirates, for a century up to 1971, the UK only scaled back its naval and air bases there in its post-1967 withdrawal from ‘East of Suez’. Since 1980, when the Iran-Iraq war occasioned the deployment of the Armilla Patrol to protect friendly (oil) shipping, the Royal Navy has continuously had at least one frigate or destroyer in the Gulf, and often many more. Bahrain is their usual regional base and is home to an indefinite deployment of four British minesweepers, alongside the much larger US Navy presence. While the US clearly eclipsed the UK as the dominant external power in the Gulf in the 1970s, British military influence has remained entrenched among elites. -
Defence Forces Review 2018 Defence Forces Review 2018
Defence Forces Review 2018 Defence Forces Review 2018 ISSN 1649-7066 Published for the Military Authorities by the Public Relations Section at the Chief of Staff’s Branch, and printed at the Defence Forces Printing Press, Infirmary Road, Dublin 7. Amended and reissued - 29/01/2019 © Copyright in accordance with Section 56 of the Copyright Act, 1963, Section 7 of the University of Limerick Act, 1989 and Section 6 of the Dublin University Act, 1989. 1 PEACEKEEPING AND PEACE MAKING INTERVENTIONS Launch of the Defence Forces Review In conjunction with an Academic Seminar National University of Ireland, Galway 22nd November 2018 Defence Forces Review 2018 RÉAMHRÁ Is pribhléid dom, mar Oifigeach i bhfeighil ar Bhrainse Caidreamh Poiblí Óglaigh na hÉireann, a bheith páirteach i bhfoilsiú 'Athbhreithniú Óglaigh na hÉireann 2018’ . Mar ab ionann le foilseacháin sna blianta roimhe seo, féachtar san eagrán seo ábhar a chur ar fáil a bheidh ina acmhainn acadúil agus ina fhoinse plé i measc lucht léite 'Athbhreithniú'. Is téama cuí agus tráthúil an téama atá roghnaithe don eagrán seo - Coimeád na Síochána agus Idirghabhálacha d'fhonn Síocháin a dhéanamh,, mar go dtugtar aitheantas ann do chomóradh 60 bliain ó thug Óglaigh na hÉireann faoi oibríochtaí coimeádta síochána na Náisiún Aontaithe ar dtús chomh maith le comóradh 40 bliain ó imscaradh Óglaigh na hÉireann go UNIFIL den chéad uair. Ba mhaith liom aitheantas a thabhairt don Cheannfort Rory Finegan as an obair mhór a chuir sé isteach agus as a thiomantas chun foilseachán na bliana a chur ar fáil. Tugtar aitheantas freisin don obair thábhachtach agus chóir a rinne comheagarthóirí ‘Athbhreithniú’ . -
Sustainable Direction Forthe Democratic Left
compassDIRECTION FOR THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT thinkpieces SUSTAINABLE Peace & Security Today By James Kemp, Oxford Research Group compasscontents Sustainable Peace & Security Introduction Trust in security The dominant approach to security Integrating policy Global threats in the 21st century Climate change Marginalisation of the majority world Resource competition Global militarisation A window of opportunity “Following the price hikes of 1973-74, Pentagon planners prioritised the development of a capability to deploy military forces to maintain control over the Persian Gulf region to secure the supply of oil and deny competitors control or influence in the region”. Compass publications are intended to create real debate and discussion around the key issues facing the democratic left - however the views expressed in this publication are not a statement of Compass policy. compass Sustainable Peace and Security Today By James Kemp, Oxford Research Group, November 2006 Compass Thinkpiece 18 Introduction This Thinkpiece outlines how and why a security strategy fit for the 21st century would differ from the approach that dominates today. The dominant approach is pre-occupied with maintaining key elements of the status quo and controlling pressure for change.This approach to security is not only failing, it is also incapable of effectively tackling some of the most important threats we face today. Another security strategy, one that stands a greater chance of securing international and therefore UK peace and security, would begin by reassessing -
MAPPING the DEVELOPMENT of AUTONOMY in WEAPON SYSTEMS Vincent Boulanin and Maaike Verbruggen
MAPPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AUTONOMY IN WEAPON SYSTEMS vincent boulanin and maaike verbruggen MAPPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AUTONOMY IN WEAPON SYSTEMS vincent boulanin and maaike verbruggen November 2017 STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Dr Radha Kumar (India) The Director DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org © SIPRI 2017 Contents Acknowledgements v About the authors v Executive summary vii Abbreviations x 1. Introduction 1 I. Background and objective 1 II. Approach and methodology 1 III. Outline 2 Figure 1.1. A comprehensive approach to mapping the development of autonomy 2 in weapon systems 2. What are the technological foundations of autonomy? 5 I. Introduction 5 II. Searching for a definition: what is autonomy? 5 III. Unravelling the machinery 7 IV. Creating autonomy 12 V. Conclusions 18 Box 2.1. Existing definitions of autonomous weapon systems 8 Box 2.2. Machine-learning methods 16 Box 2.3. Deep learning 17 Figure 2.1. Anatomy of autonomy: reactive and deliberative systems 10 Figure 2.2. -
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Theoretical and Historical Perspectives
Research Report C O R P O R A T I O N MICHAEL J. MAZARR, JONATHAN BLAKE, ABIGAIL CASEY, TIM MCDONALD, STEPHANIE PEZARD, MICHAEL SPIRTAS Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Theoretical and Historical Perspectives he most recent U.S. National Security KEY FINDINGS Strategy is built around the expectation ■ The emerging competition is not generalized but likely to of a new era of intensifying international be most intense between a handful of specific states. Tcompetition, characterized by “growing political, economic, and military competitions” ■ The hinge point of the competition will be the relation- confronting the United States.1 The new U.S. ship between the architect of the rules-based order (the United States) and the leading revisionist peer competitor National Defense Strategy is even more blunt that is involved in the most specific disputes (China). about the nature of the emerging competition. “We are facing increased global disorder, ■ Global patterns of competition are likely to be complex and diverse, with distinct types of competition prevailing characterized by decline in the long-standing 2 in different issue areas. rules-based international order,” it argues. “Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, ■ Managing the escalation of regional rivalries and conflicts is now the primary concern in U.S. national is likely to be a major focus of U.S. statecraft. security.”3 The document points to the ■ Currently, the competition seems largely focused on “reemergence of long-term, strategic competition status grievances or ambitions, economic prosperity, by what the National Security Strategy classifies technological advantage, and regional influence. as revisionist powers.”4 It identifies two ■ The competition is likely to be most intense and per- countries as potential rivals: China and Russia. -
EUTM Somalia EU Military Mission to Contribute to the Building up and Strengthening of the Somali National Armed Forces
COMMON SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY EUTM Somalia EU military mission to contribute to the building up and strengthening of the Somali National Armed Forces Updated: April 2014 On 10 April 2010, the European Union launched a military training mission in Somalia (EUTM Somalia) in order to contribute to strengthening the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the institutions of Somalia. This support is part of the EU's comprehensive engagement in Somalia, which aims to support stabilising the country and to respond to the needs of the Somali people. Since 2010, EUTM Somalia has contributed to the training of approximately 3,600 Somali soldiers with a focus on the training of Non-Commissioned Officers (NCOs), Junior Officers, specialists and trainers. Training was provided in Uganda due to the political and security situation in Somalia, in close collaboration with the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). The training of the Somali National Armed Forces is focused on commander up to battalion and company level, in addition to specialist training in the areas of military police, civilian-military cooperation, intelligence, company commander and combat engineering. Modules on international humanitarian law and human rights, and the protection of civilians are also delivered. On 22 January 2013, the Council of the FACTS AND FIGURES European Union extended the mandate of Mission area: Somalia Headquarters: Mogadishu EUTM Somalia to March 2015. This third Starting date of new mandate: 1 February mandate implied a significant change of focus 2013 Mission Commander: Brigadier General for the Mission with the addition of strategic Massimo Mingiardi (Italy) advisory and mentoring activities in addition to Troop strength: 125 training.