Overall Trends

Buses Yukio Wada1） 1）Porte Publishing Overall Trends Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) 1 Introduction: Social Trends Affecting Buses was advised by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Com- A year after the Great East Japan Earthquake in munications (MIC) to secure the safety of charter buses. March 2011, recovery of the affected areas and industries MLIT started up a committee to examine the futu re of had reached different stages of progress. In terms of the bus industry. The committee recommended apply- traffic infrastructure, some railway lines running along ing the stricter route transit bus rules to expressway the coast had been restored and re-opened. In contrast, tour buses operating a charter service. The Kan-Etsu urban planning for some badly-affected towns and cities Expressway accident occurred immediately after this had made little progress. In these regions, some railway recommendation. After the accident, bus companies ur- lines have been converted to dedicated bus lanes and gently began switching the permitted work hours and companies are running replacement bus services instead distances of crew. After studying bus operator auditing of trains (Fig. 1). Passenger demand for bus services in methods and the like, all inter-city charter buses were outlying areas has dropped due to population accumu- due to be converted to route transit buses from August lation in urban areas, and has become concentrated at 2013. temporary housing schemes. Consequently, there has These two trends affecting charter buses, namely a been an increase in demand for bus transport to take worsening in profitability due to harsher competition people from temporary housing to stations, schools, hos- and the conversion of expressway charter buses to route pitals, and other destinations related to people’s daily transit buses, is having a major effect on the whole bus livelihoods. As a result, users are placing new expecta- industry as well as bus operators. The first trend has tions on the functionality of bus transport. However, bus expressed itself as a chronic fall in vehicle sales, reflect- chartering in areas affected by the earthquake remains ing the nationwide drop in demand for charter services. limited and the industry is still relying on a recovery in In contrast, the latter trend has forced tour bus opera- tourism. The bus charter business is far from prosperity tors, which are hurrying to comply with the rules for across the whole country and the industry is looking to route transit buses, to postpone plans for new vehicle secure fares and fees and to improve profitability before improving capacity. On April 29, 2012, a major accident occurred on the Kan-Etsu Expressway. An expressway tour bus struck a side wall, killing or injuring all the passengers and crew. As a result, the expressway tour bus industry was placed under the spotlight, exposing the harsh working conditions in which under-prepared crew members carry the lives of passengers. The bus industry is now hurrying to adopt new safety measures. After the ski tour Fig. 1 Replacement bus service on dedicated bus lane bus accident in Osaka in 2007, the Japanese Ministry of converted from railway track. Copyright© 2013 Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. All rights reserved 7 100 6 90 80 5 Total: 4.41 70 4 Route Total: 66.70 transit 60 buses: 4.12 3 50 2 40 Charter buses: 37.4 Passenger volume (billion passengers) 1 30 Route transit Charter buses: 2.929 buses: 0.29 0 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Passenger kilometers (billion passenger kilometers) Year 10 ※Domestic buses were excluded from the survey in 2010. 0 Fig. 2 Passenger volume. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year and equipment introduction since the new rules have ※Domestic buses were excluded from the survey in 2010. priority. Fig. 3 Passenger volume. The economic situation of the transport industry improved after December 2012, when the yen began to de- increased to 1.3 times the hours of other industries. This preciate and share prices rose. However, public econom- figure easily highlights the increasing burden on bus ic sentiment remains depressed and the revitalization of crews. The development of vehicle equipment to help the bus industry is likely to require more time. alleviate this burden and to enhance safety has become more important than ever. 2 The Bus Industry in Statistics The low prices offered by expressway tour bus op- 2. 1. Passenger numbers erators to appeal to customers are partly due to sales The number of bus passengers continues to fall as strategies that take advantage of IT tools. Existing ex- the structures of peoples’ lives change and buses are pressway route transit bus operators are also working regarded as a less appealing choice compared with the to revise sales methods and fare settings. In the future, convenience of other forms of transport. The number of services that combine the merits of both types of com- route transit bus passengers in the whole of Japan fell pany may lead to the development of even more user- from 4.1771 billion in 2009 to 4.158 billion in 2010 (Fig. 2). friendly and reliable means of transportation. In contrast, the number of charter bus passengers in- The number of kilometers actually travelled by bus creased by approximately 2 million people to 0.30049 bil- users in 2011 was 66.7 billion passenger kilometers in lion from 0.298 billion in 2010. This increase is due to the 2011, another figure that is in decline (Fig. 3). identification of new demand by expressway tour buses 2. 2. Market trends and the number of passengers increased by 2.58 million Reflecting the market situation described above, bus in 2007, 3.72 million in 2008, and 4.8 million in 2010. This sales in Japan continue to fall. However, since the num- trend is pushing the number of charter bus passengers ber of registrations has not changed greatly, it is likely upward, despite the general gradual decline in this cate- that most of the substitute demand is being satisfied by gory. However, the expansion of expressway tour buses used vehicles. has led to severe price competition and the effects on ve- Fig. 4 shows the trends for bus sales in Japan. Al- hicle investment and labor costs must not be overlooked. though sales have recovered after the drop due to the The operating income of charter bus companies has Great East Japan Earthquake, demand for heavy-duty halved in the last ten years. At the same time, the av- buses remains flat. In this market environment, UD erage yearly working hours of charter bus drivers has Trucks formally announced its exit from the bus busi- Copyright© 2013 Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. All rights reserved 160 000 18 000 16 000 140 000 14 000 Total: 122,220 Total: 11,938 120 000 12 000 10 000 100 000 Light-duty buses: 7,672 Light-duty 8 000 buses: 111,622 80 000 6 000 Heavy-duty buses: 4,266 4 000 60 000 Number of bus registrations (units) Bus production (units) 2 000 40 000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20 000 Year Heavy-duty buses: 10,598 Note 1: From 2003, statistics were collected based on the license plate number registration category rather than according to chassis 0 (excluding mini-vehicles). 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Fig. 5 Number of bus registrations in Japan. Fig. 4 Bus production in Japan. Table 1 Declining sales of SHD coaches. ness in August 2012. The company had been delib- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 erating whether to carry on in the bus business after SHD 392 488 290 288 267 100 156 97 announcing the suspension of negotiations to merge HD 1 107 1 301 1 385 1 362 1 513 1 183 1 292 1 016 Total (SHD+HD) 1 499 1 789 1 675 1 650 1 780 1 283 1 448 1 113 bus businesses with Mitsubishi Fuso in 2010, and the an- SHD/Total (%) 26.1 27.3 17.3 17.4 15 7.8 10.8 8.7 nouncement in 2009 by Nishi-Nippon Shatai Kogyo Co., Ltd., the main customer for bus bodies manufactured 120 by UD Trucks, that it was ending its bus manufactur- ing business. As a result, the number of heavy-duty bus 100 manufacturers in Japan has shrunk from four to three, Total: 88 80 with only two forming part of an industrial group. Fig. 5 Diesel: 73 shows the number of bus registrations in Japan. 60 Table 1 shows bus production by body type. The 40 reduction in super-high decker (SHD) coach bodies, 20 which are the mainstay of both charter and overnight Other:その他 1515 Number of bus registrations (units) expressway buses, is evident. Led by Japanese sightsee- 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ing buses, SHD coaches became popular from the 1990s Year because of the improved view and ride quality offered by Fig. 6 Number of imported bus registrations. a high-floor construction, effective use of the under-floor area, and the like. However, sales of SHD coaches have ing to fewer orders from operators dealing with overseas declined due to the advent of high-decker (HD) coaches tourists (Fig. 6). with under-floor sleeping areas for replacement drivers, Reflecting the contraction in bus demand, regional lower prices, and the like. bus operators are reducing vehicle sizes. As a result, Imported buses from Korea have been gaining atten- these operators are increasing the proportion of medium- tion as another choice for bus operators.

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