The Tragedy of Failure

THE TRAGEDY OF FAILURE Tiffiany O. Howard The Tragedy of Failure This page intentionally left blank The Tragedy of Failure Evaluating State Failure and Its Impact on the Spread of Refugees, Terrorism, and War Tiffiany O. Howard PSI Reports Copyright 2010 by Tiffiany O. Howard All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, except for the inclusion of brief quotations in a review, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Howard, Tiffiany O. The tragedy of failure : evaluating state failure and its impact on the spread of refugees, terrorism, and war / Tiffiany O. Howard. p. cm. — (PSI reports) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-313-38120-1 (hard copy : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-313-38121-8 (ebook) 1. Failed states. 2. Political stability. 3. Forced migration. 4. Refugees. I. Title. JC328.7.H68 2010 320.01’1—dc22 2010000811 ISBN: 978-0-313-38120-1 EISBN: 978-0-313-38121-8 14 13 12 11 10 1 2 3 4 5 This book is also available on the World Wide Web as an eBook. Visit www.abc-clio.com for details. Praeger An Imprint of ABC-CLIO, LLC ABC-CLIO, LLC 130 Cremona Drive, P.O. Box 1911 Santa Barbara, California 93116-1911 This book is printed on acid-free paper Manufactured in the United States of America Copyright Acknowledgment Several excerpts are reprinted from Tiffiany O. Howard, “Revisiting State Failure: Developing a Causal Model of State Failure Based Upon Theoretical Insight,” Civil Wars 10:2, 125–146, July 6, 2008. Reprinted by permission of the publisher (Taylor & Francis Ltd, http://www.tandf.- co.uk/journals). Contents Tables and Figures vii Preface ix Acknowledgments xiii 1. The Origins of the State and What It Means to Fail 1 2. The Two Approaches to State Failure 12 3. A New Perspective: The Severity Stage Model 25 4. Evaluating State Failure as a Cause of Forced Migration 37 5. State Failure, Refugees, and the Spread of Terrorism 59 6. Beyond State Failure: Examining Latent Factors, Failed Public Policy, and Their Impact on the Forced Migration Crisis 86 7. The Tragedy of Failure 109 Appendices 115 Bibliography 133 Index 149 This page intentionally left blank Tables and Figures TABLES 1.1 Contemporary Weak and Failing States Identified by Rotberg et al. (2003a) 9 1.2 Contemporary Failed and Collapsed States Identified by Rotberg et al. (2003b) 10 2.1 Description of the Variables 21 2.2 Absolute Transition Approach Model-Logistic Regression 22 2.3 Process Approach Model-Ordered Logistic Regression 23 3.1 Multinomial Logit Coefficient Estimates of the Likelihood that State Failure Will Occur 29 3.2 Multinomial Logit Analysis of the Likelihood that State Failure Will Occur—Odds Ratio Results 30 3.3 Hypotheses Supported by the Multinomial Logit Analysis 35 4.1 Generalized Least Squares Model Explaining Forced Migration 49 4.2 Failing and Failed States as of 2006 51 5.1 Pearson Correlation Coefficient 68 5.2 The Rank of Each State on the Failed State Index, the Index of Weak States, and the Global Terrorism Index (2008) 69 6.1 Main Countries of Resettlement of Refugees [in 2001] 98 viii TABLES AND FIGURES 6.2 Major Protracted Refugee Situations [in 2004] 100 6.3 Full Time UNHCR Personnel [in 2006] 103 6.4 Members of the Executive Committee of the High Commissioner’s Program 104 6.5 Top Ten Donors [in 2006] 105 FIGURES 2.1 Absolute Transition Approach 13 2.2 Process Approach 13 3.1 Severity Stage Model 26 4.1 Comparison of Forced Migration Flows from Sudan, Sierra Leone, Colombia, and Haiti, 1993–2006 57 5.1 Annual Rate of Change Calculation (Percentage) 67 5.2 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient 68 5.3 Map of Sudan 71 5.4 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Sudan 72 5.5 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Sierra Leone 74 5.6 Map of Colombian-Venezuelan Border 75 5.7 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Colombia 77 5.8 Map of Baluchistan, the FATA, and the Pakistani-Afghan Border 79 5.9 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Pakistan 80 5.10 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Iraq 81 5.11 Annual Rate of Change in Forced Migrants and Terrorist Activity—Somalia 82 Preface Research has found that “[state failure events, such as] internal wars and political upheavals are the antecedents of most humanitarian emergencies” (Harff and Gurr 1998, 553). Although scholars studying humanitarian emergencies, such as forced migration, may not have the ability to precisely predict their occurrence, there is research available that suggests that with the onset of epi- sodes of state crisis, humanitarian emergencies can be anticipated (Melson 1992; Fein 1993; Gurr 1994; Jenkins and Schmeidl 1995; Licklider 1995; Rummel 1995a; Krain 1997). Therefore, with the occurrence of each episode of state failure, there is the expectation that a humanitarian crisis will inevita- bly emerge. A state is said to have “failed” when its governing structures have collapsed and when it is no longer able to provide public goods to its citizens. In this volume, I understand state failure as a process that occurs in two discrete stages: one in which a state can be said to be failing and is in decline, or one in which it has reached the point of complete breakdown. One group of scholars, the State Failure Task Force, has come to operationalize a definition of state failure as the presence of any one of four types of conflict: ethnic war, revolutionary war, oppressive regimes, and genocide or politicide (see Appendices C, D, E, F). When such an event occurs, the state is failing. The state failure literature also asserts that these violent conflicts have commonalities that can help us to better understand what leads to the breakdown of a nation-state. Although this volume diverges sharply from the existing definitions of state failure presented in the literature, the early state failure research lets us begin to explore the relationship between state collapse and forced migration. x PREFACE To evaluate this relationship, The Tragedy of Failure makes the argument that examining the process of state decline provides a more comprehensive understanding of the precursors to forced migration when compared to existing works. Consequently, while the forced migration literature is rigorous in its ex- ploration of the causes and implications of the movements of refugees and internally displaced persons, it is hampered by its narrow view of the root causes of these phenomena. Forced migration scholars have had trouble looking beyond violent conflict, and as a result, the causal roles of economic and environmental conditions have been left largely unexamined. The literature has also failed to consider the nuances of violent conflict in relationship to the occurrence of forced migrations. These are shortcomings that this volume addresses. The primary goal of this book is to bring light to the problems associated with relying on predictions and forecasts of forced migration generated by sta- tistical models that largely ignore structural and social factors that contribute to the crisis of forced migration. Here I have revised the State Failure Task Force model by developing a modeling structure capable of producing long- term forecasts, without sacrificing the parsimonious quality that is so integral to making predictions and maintaining its relevance to the forced migration policy community. I investigate the processes of state failure and the humanitarian emergency of forced migration, thereby developing a global model that establishes a relationship between these two factors based on causal mecha- nisms. Achieving a better understanding of what causes state failure and the relationship between the nature of the state and forced migration will allow policymakers to better predict, anticipate, and prevent the failure of nation- states and subsequent forced migration. The data collection and analysis represent the empirical foundation of the overall project and provide the basis on which to make inferences and establish conclusions. Therefore, the methodological approach to this project represents a multi-method design. The quantitative analysis is conducted using a compi- lation of several panel data sources, whereas the qualitative analysis is based on a thorough content analysis of primary and secondary document sources. First, I review and analyze data from The State Failure Project: 1955–2000 Phase III which represents a panel dataset. This dataset includes indicators of violent conflict, polity features, state failure events, natural disasters, and the economy for 195 countries from 1955 to 2000 (see Appendix H). In addition to The State Failure Project, I also analyze data specifically col- lected on violence and features of the polity which are based on the work of Moore and Shellman (2006). The data measure 19 concepts of violent conflict events, economic decline, environmental degradation, and polity instability and encompass the period from 1976 to 1995. The forced migration data are based on the work of Schmeidl and Jenkins (1998) and Howard (2006) and come from two sources, the United Nations PREFACE xi High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the United States Commit- tee for Refugees (USCR). The refugee data are compiled using the annual sta- tistical reports of the UNHCR to their Executive Committee (EXCOM) for the years 1955 to 2004, whereas the internally displaced persons data are compiled using the USCR World Refugee Survey Report for the years 1969 to 2000.

Load more